Bitcoin is funny money

[Pomegranate12]

Can I go to the grocery store and hand the cashier some bitcoins to pay for my food ?
How about at the gas station
You use money to buy goods and services. 
Bitcoin is funny money and will disappear
It's not a wise long term investment 
Cash out now 

[celerystalks]

Bitcoin, and all cryptos, are a joke.

No one with half a brain cell would think these things are worth dabbling in.

[chevy1956]

It could go a different way. It could become money. I think crypto's are great ideas. A money without government backing and true world currencies. The ability to transfer small amounts and have a record means they have the potential to be fantastic means of exchange.

I think investing in bitcoin and cryptos is stupid though. You don't invest in money. You can gamble on currencies and to me that is what everyone into crypto is currently doing.

The way I look at it the best case scenario is that cryptos do become a valid means of exchange. If that does occur that doesn't mean though that cryptos go up in value. They are just a means of exchange. You use them to buy stuff.

The last point I'd add is that gold and silver are exactly the same as bitcoin in so many ways. So if you are into gold and/or silver as part of your portfolio you could just use bitcoin. Personally I think investing in gold and/or silver is just as stupid.

[effigy98]

Can I go to the grocery store and hand the cashier some bitcoins to pay for my food ?
How about at the gas station
You use money to buy goods and services. 
Bitcoin is funny money and will disappear
It's not a wise long term investment 
Cash out now

You can tap your phone on the payment pad and pay in bitcoin... Look at what Square and Paypal are doing. There are VISA debit cards that you have your balance in bitcoin and it subtracts from your balance when you spend. Nearly every merchant accepts VISA. Bitcoin can be used in the normal economy.

You shouldn't be involved in an investment you don't understand so why worry about it and post things like this? If others understand it better then you and are willing to risk part of their portfolios, more power to them.

[EvenSteven]

Can I go to the grocery store and hand the cashier some bitcoins to pay for my food ?
How about at the gas station
You use money to buy goods and services. 
Bitcoin is funny money and will disappear
It's not a wise long term investment 
Cash out now

You can tap your phone on the payment pad and pay in bitcoin... Look at what Square and Paypal are doing. There are VISA debit cards that you have your balance in bitcoin and it subtracts from your balance when you spend. Nearly every merchant accepts VISA. Bitcoin can be used in the normal economy.

I thought these applications first converted the bitcoin to dollars and transacted in dollars. Are they transacting directly in bitcoin now?

[Telecaster]

You can tap your phone on the payment pad and pay in bitcoin... Look at what Square and Paypal are doing. There are VISA debit cards that you have your balance in bitcoin and it subtracts from your balance when you spend. Nearly every merchant accepts VISA. Bitcoin can be used in the normal economy.

Bitcoin cannot be used in the normal economy and will never be used in the normal economy beyond fringe, specialized transactions.    With Square and Paypal you can indeed pay with Bitcoin.  But merchant gets paid in good old Yankee Dollars.  All Square and Paypal do is make the conversion and take a cut of the transaction. 

Here's why I say it can't be used in the normal economy:  Let's say you want to hire someone to paint your house for one BTC.  He's booked a month out.  So you last you month you booked and today he shows up today only now he's 50% more expensive than he was at the beginning of the month (which is approximately the actual price appreciation of BTC this month).  But if you had hired him back in February he would he have been 50% cheaper by the time he started, which was approximately the decline in value from February to March.  As far back as there has been written records of money, economies have always worked on a credit system.  Obviously, there has always been the situation where you pay with cash or gold coins or what have you, but there have always been contracts payable in the future.  I paint your house, you pay me when I'm done.  You can't do that if you don't know what the future value of the medium of exchange is. 

All labor is based on the concept of fixed payments in the future.  So are mortgages, leases, and virtually every type of financial transaction you care to name except cash.  Bitcoin can function as cash, as long as someone is willing to pay the transaction fee, but that's about all it can do. 

[forgerator]

Can I go to the grocery store and hand the cashier some bitcoins to pay for my food ?
How about at the gas station
You use money to buy goods and services. 
Bitcoin is funny money and will disappear
It's not a wise long term investment 
Cash out now

Umm I actually did just that this morning. Went to my grocery store, got a few vegetables, fruits and some water bottles. Paid with my Bitpay card which is backed by a Bitcoin Cash wallet. It deducted the balance, and oh by the by, what I spent was less than what I originally had in dollar amount because the price of BCH was up 15% from when I purchased it.

[EvenSteven]

Can I go to the grocery store and hand the cashier some bitcoins to pay for my food ?
How about at the gas station
You use money to buy goods and services. 
Bitcoin is funny money and will disappear
It's not a wise long term investment 
Cash out now

Umm I actually did just that this morning. Went to my grocery store, got a few vegetables, fruits and some water bottles. Paid with my Bitpay card which is backed by a Bitcoin Cash wallet. It deducted the balance, and oh by the by, what I spent was less than what I originally had in dollar amount because the price of BCH was up 15% from when I purchased it.

Again, are you actually transacting in bitcoin, or are you having a third party convert your bitcoin to dollars, and then transacting in dollars? I think there is a difference between the two if you are claiming utility as a currency.

[Syonyk]

Can I go to the grocery store and hand the cashier some bitcoins to pay for my food?

Hand?  Hard, but there used to exist some physical tokens one could pass around.  Transfer?  Sure, if the store accepts it.  One could make the same argument for stocks/bonds as well, though.  They're not directly useful to pay people.

You use money to buy goods and services.

And people have used, and continue to use, Bitcoin to buy goods and services.  Either directly person to person, or from the range of companies that accept bitcoin and various other cryptocurrencies, directly or via payment processors.

People have used, and continue to use, gold and silver (physical metal) as a way to buy goods and services, though most grocery stores won't take them directly either.

Bitcoin is funny money and will disappear

12 years in, people are still insisting that it will go away, really soon, soooon, just wait for it, ignore the new highs indicating that there's pretty strong demand, wait for the correction, see, it'll disappear, er, just after this new high, and... any day now... waaaaait for it...

I'm comfortable saying that it will disappear at some point, heat death of the universe, end of the internet, or something of the sort, but... much like predictions about the end of the world, predictions of Bitcoin's demise seem rather overstated and have yet to come to pass.

It's not a wise long term investment

The people who put a lot of money into it back when it was at the "insane" top of $1000, assuming they've held most of it, are probably fine with their 25x returns in less than a decade.  Even if you bought at the literal last peak, returns aren't half bad in a few years.

I'd consider it a bit more of a speculative value store than an investment, but... sure.  What would you consider wiser?  If one holds any sort of metals in their investment/value store collection, splitting some of the gains there in recent years into crypto would seem a halfway sane decision to me.  The risk/reward balance is exceedingly aggressive, but there's a space for that in a sane and balanced portfolio.

Cash out now

What, you want in and can't find any for sale? :p

I think investing in bitcoin and cryptos is stupid though. You don't invest in money. You can gamble on currencies and to me that is what everyone into crypto is currently doing.

The various people making money on foreign currency fluctuations would probably disagree with you, and would probably assert, halfway reasonably, that if you're going in informed, it's not gambling.  One could consider Bitcoin a contrarian position against "most or all current fiat currencies," betting that they'll be devalued in real terms over time.  It's been a decent bet for a long while...

The last point I'd add is that gold and silver are exactly the same as bitcoin in so many ways. So if you are into gold and/or silver as part of your portfolio you could just use bitcoin. Personally I think investing in gold and/or silver is just as stupid.

"Investing" implies a hope for gains, and there are certainly some in gold/silver who hope for gains (though mostly this seems to be companies interested in selling you on the concept of "investing" with gold through them, in my experience...).  However, there are also plenty who view them as a halfway stable value store.  +/- 50% is fine, if you're looking to store some value through a currency collapse (of which there have been many within the lifetime of people alive today).  Gold/silver have some value as industrial metals (silver, especially, doesn't get recycled nearly as aggressively as gold), and the history of the world would indicate they don't have a floor of 0, unlike Bitcoin, but as part of a blend of value stores and contrarian investments, I don't see a huge downside, and I certainly wouldn't call it "stupid" if done as a considered part of a portfolio.  Gold/silver have some utility for local, in person transactions, Bitcoin has some utility for internet based transactions, so... *shrug*  I don't get the hate, really.

I thought these applications first converted the bitcoin to dollars and transacted in dollars. Are they transacting directly in bitcoin now?

It depends on how the merchant has configured it.  I've not looked into all of them, but for Bitpay, at least:  https://support.bitpay.com/hc/en-us/articles/201890513-What-are-my-options-for-settlement-

BitPay offers direct settlement via bank deposit, so you can receive funds in your local currency, cryptocurrency, or a mix of the two.

...

BitPay supports settlement in 12 currencies and direct bank deposit in 37 countries. Cryptocurrency settlements are supported in over 200 countries.

Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin (BTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Gemini Dollars (GUSD), Paxos (PAX), and USD Coin by CENTRE (USDC)
AUD - Australian Dollars
EUR - Euros
GBP - Pounds Sterling
MXN - Mexican Pesos
NZD - New Zealand Dollar
USD - US Dollars
ZAR - South African Rand

So, while the initial transaction is converted from your local currency to crypto, the details of the backend (if it remains as cryptocurrency, comes out as local currency, or some blend) is up to the merchant - if they support bitpay or another payment processor.

If it's coming directly off one of the debit/credit type cards, it's certainly being settled in your local currency, but there's a convenience of being able to use it at places that don't directly support cryptocurrences.  I'm really not certain how most places are set up, though.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Can I go to the grocery store and hand the cashier some bitcoins to pay for my food ?
How about at the gas station
You use money to buy goods and services. 
Bitcoin is funny money and will disappear
It's not a wise long term investment 
Cash out now

You can tap your phone on the payment pad and pay in bitcoin... Look at what Square and Paypal are doing. There are VISA debit cards that you have your balance in bitcoin and it subtracts from your balance when you spend. Nearly every merchant accepts VISA. Bitcoin can be used in the normal economy.

The stores receive cash, not Bitcoin.  Bitcoin doesn't enter the economy, it just stays in your secured credit card account with Visa.  Most people buy on credit, with no assets held by Visa, and are billed monthly.  I think "Bitcoin can be used in the normal economy" is not an accurate depiction of merchants receiving US dollars.

That said, I don't think "funny money" is an apt description either.  Back in 2017 when BTC's price crashed (after a 20x gain), you didn't hear about institutional investment in Bitcoin.  In 2020, you do:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-hits-new-all-time-high-driven-by-institutional-buying-153215272.html

[celerystalks]

The last point I'd add is that gold and silver are exactly the same as bitcoin in so many ways. So if you are into gold and/or silver as part of your portfolio you could just use bitcoin. Personally I think investing in gold and/or silver is just as stupid.

Wrong.

Gold and silver are real and exist, have chemical properties, and have had value for thousands of years. Bitcoin, i.e. blockchain, is just a computer data file that has existed for almost twelve years. So basically they are nothing alike.

I’m always surprised how people are capable of ignoring the obvious when trying to make a point.

[Wintergreen78]

The last point I'd add is that gold and silver are exactly the same as bitcoin in so many ways. So if you are into gold and/or silver as part of your portfolio you could just use bitcoin. Personally I think investing in gold and/or silver is just as stupid.

Wrong.

Gold and silver are real and exist, have chemical properties, and have had value for thousands of years. Bitcoin, i.e. blockchain, is just a computer data file that has existed for almost twelve years. So basically they are nothing alike.

I’m always surprised how people are capable of ignoring the obvious when trying to make a point.

I don’t hold metals or Bitcoin in my portfolio. The biggest risk I see with Bitcoin is the risk of losing it all due to a hack or mistake, either while holding it or trying to transact it.

For it to make an meaningful change in my allocations, I’d have to hold on the order of $100,000 worth of Bitcoin. Based on my reading the recommendation is to use one of the big exchanges with a history that might stretch back ten whole years now! Make the exchange, then get the Bitcoin off the exchange and in to a cold wallet ASAP. Make sure you understand how to secure the wallet and the key. Don’t lose the key or you lose everything. Don’t get hacked or you lose everything. Then, when you go to make the exchange back to regular currency you have another risk point.

Cash in banks and investments with fidelity/vanguard/etc. have a whole regulatory/legal regime around them to protect you from fraud and theft. The infrastructure around cryptocurrency still seemed to be in the Wild West stage when I briefly looked into it. I have no interest in becoming a computer security expert. I also don’t have much interest in digging through company histories to figure out which cryptocurrency exchanges are actually run well vs which are incompetent vs which are run by criminals who will run off to Thailand with all of their customer’s assets and then fake their deaths in order to steal all their money.

[chevy1956]

The last point I'd add is that gold and silver are exactly the same as bitcoin in so many ways. So if you are into gold and/or silver as part of your portfolio you could just use bitcoin. Personally I think investing in gold and/or silver is just as stupid.

Wrong.

Gold and silver are real and exist, have chemical properties, and have had value for thousands of years. Bitcoin, i.e. blockchain, is just a computer data file that has existed for almost twelve years. So basically they are nothing alike.

I’m always surprised how people are capable of ignoring the obvious when trying to make a point.

You are completely wrong. Does technology exist. What about data in databases. The blockchain is a fantastic tech creation. It exists. If anything I'd argue Bitcoin is a significantly better money alternative than gold and/or silver.

A lot more transactions would be completed today via Bitcoin than gold and/or silver.

Try to be logical and rational when making a point. Imagine trying to make out that in today's economy only physical assets have value. That is completely and utterly delusional.

[chevy1956]

The last point I'd add is that gold and silver are exactly the same as bitcoin in so many ways. So if you are into gold and/or silver as part of your portfolio you could just use bitcoin. Personally I think investing in gold and/or silver is just as stupid.

Wrong.

Gold and silver are real and exist, have chemical properties, and have had value for thousands of years. Bitcoin, i.e. blockchain, is just a computer data file that has existed for almost twelve years. So basically they are nothing alike.

I’m always surprised how people are capable of ignoring the obvious when trying to make a point.

I don’t hold metals or Bitcoin in my portfolio. The biggest risk I see with Bitcoin is the risk of losing it all due to a hack or mistake, either while holding it or trying to transact it.

For it to make an meaningful change in my allocations, I’d have to hold on the order of $100,000 worth of Bitcoin. Based on my reading the recommendation is to use one of the big exchanges with a history that might stretch back ten whole years now! Make the exchange, then get the Bitcoin off the exchange and in to a cold wallet ASAP. Make sure you understand how to secure the wallet and the key. Don’t lose the key or you lose everything. Don’t get hacked or you lose everything. Then, when you go to make the exchange back to regular currency you have another risk point.

Cash in banks and investments with fidelity/vanguard/etc. have a whole regulatory/legal regime around them to protect you from fraud and theft. The infrastructure around cryptocurrency still seemed to be in the Wild West stage when I briefly looked into it. I have no interest in becoming a computer security expert. I also don’t have much interest in digging through company histories to figure out which cryptocurrency exchanges are actually run well vs which are incompetent vs which are run by criminals who will run off to Thailand with all of their customer’s assets and then fake their deaths in order to steal all their money.

I can understand not holding metals or Bitcoiin in your portfolio. These are rational decisions based upon not holding something that only has value as a means of exchange. It's just like not investing in currencies. They have no real value. Sure metals have some value in their physical use but on the whole increases in value of cryptos and metals are just the same as currency speculation.

You don't have to do what you are stating. You can hold bitcoin extremely safely now and you have been able to in the past as well. People were ripped off via not holding their bitcoin and giving it to an exchange.

The great point to me about cryptos is that you don't need an exchange and/or bank to store the money. If anything I think your own physical wallet is significantly safer than the regulatory bodies you are talking about:- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency_wallet.

Personally I'd love to see cryptos become much more dominant. I think they have the potential to really revolutionize how we conduct transactions. It's miles away from that level and that may never happen. I also wouldn't bet on cryptos but that is because they should be viewed as money. I'd much rather invest in a stock index. These indexes are really a bunch of businesses that have a profit motive. They aren't just speculative tools with no value apart from a means of exchange.

[Syonyk]

Gold and silver are real and exist, have chemical properties, and have had value for thousands of years. Bitcoin, i.e. blockchain, is just a computer data file that has existed for almost twelve years. So basically they are nothing alike.

I’m always surprised how people are capable of ignoring the obvious when trying to make a point.

Nobody is dumb enough to confuse bitcoin for being a physical metal, but in terms of the behavior and characteristics in terms of mining and behavior in use, gold/silver (physical commodities, formerly commodity based currencies) and bitcoin have a lot in common.

Bitcoin behaves more or less as a synthetic digital commodity - both in creation/extraction and in use.  It's the best term I've found to describe it, and it does a decent job of explaining how it behaves in practice.  As the world has moved away from commodity currencies, this is a more foreign concept, but it behaves like a commodity with a fairly low total market cap, which is exactly what it is - though becoming less and less so, over time, as the total value goes up.  Back in the day, the weekly pump and dump was obvious in the patterns (some well backed person or group was manipulating the market to their benefit, rather successfully if you looked at the behavior), and that's mostly gone because it takes an awful lot more to shift it around than it did back at $30/btc.

If you've got a better description for how it behaves, feel free, though "Damned scamcoin pyramid scheme power wasting criminal use bullshit" is not a useful explanation for it, in terms of any sort of predictive power.

Very clearly demand for btc is going up based on price, and I expect that to continue as the USD gets printed in mass quantities (it works fine, right up until it stops working, and plenty of historical fiat currencies have hit that point eventually).

[Syonyk]

Based on my reading the recommendation is to use one of the big exchanges with a history that might stretch back ten whole years now! Make the exchange, then get the Bitcoin off the exchange and in to a cold wallet ASAP. Make sure you understand how to secure the wallet and the key. Don’t lose the key or you lose everything. Don’t get hacked or you lose everything. Then, when you go to make the exchange back to regular currency you have another risk point.

Yup.  Entirely correct.

Earlier observations on risk/reward are relevant here.  You keep your Bitcoin wallet on your gaming PC with tons of pirated games, well... don't be surprised when it gets emptied out.  Keep your bitcoin in an exchange, online, run by God knows who, having repurposed a domain (and presumably some code) for trading Magic the Gathering cards, well... yeah, you may have a bad time of it.

Keep your btc on a halfway secure system, with backups various places, and the risk is pretty low of losing it all.  Distribute as needed to a few different systems, and hold it yourself.  If you're not up for that, well, then, perhaps bitcoin isn't for you, but that you don't feel like dealing with the details doesn't mean there aren't other people who are perfectly fine with those details.

Cash in banks and investments with fidelity/vanguard/etc. have a whole regulatory/legal regime around them to protect you from fraud and theft.

Sure, and some would argue that said system is also nicely designed to protect the profit of banks and investment groups, keeping them from any risk of loss from the sort of idiotic decisions that would ruin individual investors, and may wish not to support that as much. ;)

Though it hardly seems to stop fraud and theft, it's just done in a different way from those places.

The infrastructure around cryptocurrency still seemed to be in the Wild West stage when I briefly looked into it.

Yeah.  It is.  We're into the third generation or so, and it's far better than the first and second generation, but... still not really anything trustworthy with large sums of money for extended periods of time.  Fortunately, you don't need to trust them with large sums of money for extended periods of time. ;)

I have no interest in becoming a computer security expert. I also don’t have much interest in digging through company histories to figure out which cryptocurrency exchanges are actually run well vs which are incompetent vs which are run by criminals who will run off to Thailand with all of their customer’s assets and then fake their deaths in order to steal all their money.

Ok.  So Bitcoin isn't for you.

[celerystalks]

The last point I'd add is that gold and silver are exactly the same as bitcoin in so many ways. So if you are into gold and/or silver as part of your portfolio you could just use bitcoin. Personally I think investing in gold and/or silver is just as stupid.

Wrong.

Gold and silver are real and exist, have chemical properties, and have had value for thousands of years. Bitcoin, i.e. blockchain, is just a computer data file that has existed for almost twelve years. So basically they are nothing alike.

I’m always surprised how people are capable of ignoring the obvious when trying to make a point.

You are completely wrong. Does technology exist. What about data in databases. The blockchain is a fantastic tech creation. It exists. If anything I'd argue Bitcoin is a significantly better money alternative than gold and/or silver.

A lot more transactions would be completed today via Bitcoin than gold and/or silver.

Try to be logical and rational when making a point. Imagine trying to make out that in today's economy only physical assets have value. That is completely and utterly delusional.

The block chain is a stupid creation. It is a solution looking for a problem. Nothing needs to be done on-chain.  It only adds problems, worthless complexity, and inflexibility to everything it touches.

I am being logical and rational. We just disagree (mostly because I haven’t drunk the kool-aid that you clearly have).

[celerystalks]

Gold and silver are real and exist, have chemical properties, and have had value for thousands of years. Bitcoin, i.e. blockchain, is just a computer data file that has existed for almost twelve years. So basically they are nothing alike.

I’m always surprised how people are capable of ignoring the obvious when trying to make a point.

Nobody is dumb enough to confuse bitcoin for being a physical metal, but in terms of the behavior and characteristics in terms of mining and behavior in use, gold/silver (physical commodities, formerly commodity based currencies) and bitcoin have a lot in common.

Bitcoin behaves more or less as a synthetic digital commodity - both in creation/extraction and in use.  It's the best term I've found to describe it, and it does a decent job of explaining how it behaves in practice.  As the world has moved away from commodity currencies, this is a more foreign concept, but it behaves like a commodity with a fairly low total market cap, which is exactly what it is - though becoming less and less so, over time, as the total value goes up.  Back in the day, the weekly pump and dump was obvious in the patterns (some well backed person or group was manipulating the market to their benefit, rather successfully if you looked at the behavior), and that's mostly gone because it takes an awful lot more to shift it around than it did back at $30/btc.

If you've got a better description for how it behaves, feel free, though "Damned scamcoin pyramid scheme power wasting criminal use bullshit" is not a useful explanation for it, in terms of any sort of predictive power.

Very clearly demand for btc is going up based on price, and I expect that to continue as the USD gets printed in mass quantities (it works fine, right up until it stops working, and plenty of historical fiat currencies have hit that point eventually).

Bitcoin is not a “synthetic digital commodity” or however people are trying to spin it. Commodities are valuable raw materials. Bitcoin is just a stupid data file.

[celerystalks]

If you've got a better description for how it behaves, feel free, though "Damned scamcoin pyramid scheme power wasting criminal use bullshit" is not a useful explanation for it, in terms of any sort of predictive power.

Huh? Thats a great description:”Damned scamcoin pyramid scheme power wasting criminal use bullshit”! I think it predicts what is going on perfectly.  Why are you saying its off limits?

[celerystalks]

Earlier observations on risk/reward are relevant here.  You keep your Bitcoin wallet on your gaming PC with tons of pirated games, well... don't be surprised when it gets emptied out.  Keep your bitcoin in an exchange, online, run by God knows who, having repurposed a domain (and presumably some code) for trading Magic the Gathering cards, well... yeah, you may have a bad time of it.

Keep your btc on a halfway secure system, with backups various places, and the risk is pretty low of losing it all.  Distribute as needed to a few different systems, and hold it yourself.  If you're not up for that, well, then, perhaps bitcoin isn't for you, but that you don't feel like dealing with the details doesn't mean there aren't other people who are perfectly fine with those details.

Wow! Thats some money of the Future you got there...

[onecoolcat]

This is going to age well I am sure.  If anyone was wondering if it was too late to get into Bitcoin this thread should answer your question!  P.S. it is never a good idea to preach about something you don’t understand. 

P.P.S. Can’t wait for the “told you so” messages when bitcoin “crashes” down to $60,000 USD in 2021.

[celerystalks]

I know what I am talking about. Bitcoin and cryptos are dumb and their hodlers are delusional.

 This was supposed to be an anti-bitcoin thread. I’m just making my contribution. But of course a bunch of bitcoin fanboi trolls decided to try to high-jack it. Sheesh.

[onecoolcat]

It’s a forum on education.  They are trying to give you a much needed learning.  Thankless heroes around here. 

To all:  the FIRE community (to which we all undoubtedly belong) has always been extremely hostile to cryptocurrencies.  It doesn’t fit into their(Our) spreadsheets on working 15 years, saving 70% of their income and not taking any risks.  Attaining FI without sacrificing time is frowned upon in the FIRE community.  It ain’t changing! 

[Pomegranate12]

I agree with the celery guy

[Syonyk]

The block chain is a stupid creation. It is a solution looking for a problem. Nothing needs to be done on-chain.  It only adds problems, worthless complexity, and inflexibility to everything it touches.

I tend to think a distributed, decentralized ability to agree on a particular history without the ability to easily forge or modify is it is pretty cool, and very obviously a lot of other people have considered so as well, because BTC isn't worth $0, running on a few geek's spare CPU cycles at this point.

The ability to transfer tokens of value around without going through any centralized authority/clearing house is very interesting, especially as we've seen those centralized places repeatedly say, "You know, I don't like your business, so I'm going to simply refuse to do business with you."  If Visa, Mastercard, and PayPal all "independently" decide, at the same time, to blacklist your company, it's quite hard to do business anymore, and regardless of your agreement or not with the companies they've blacklisted, it is a somewhat worrying precedent.  "We've made sure everything goes through us and we'll only serve you if we agree with you!" isn't the sort of power private companies ought to have.

I am being logical and rational. We just disagree (mostly because I haven’t drunk the kool-aid that you clearly have).

You've not made any argument, so it's hard to say that you're being logical or rational, because you've not offered anything to engage logically or rationally with.  You've just asserted, with no evidence, that it's horrid, and then left it at that.  You've made a halfway interesting thesis statement in your opening to this post ("It is a solution looking for a problem. Nothing needs to be done on-chain.  It only adds problems, worthless complexity, and inflexibility to everything it touches."), but then not done a thing to back it, and quite a few people have found Bitcoin, and blockchain technologies in general, to obviously be worth something to them - or it wouldn't be worth anything, and would have produced a couple interesting research papers as it faded into obscurity.

Bitcoin is not a “synthetic digital commodity” or however people are trying to spin it. Commodities are valuable raw materials. Bitcoin is just a stupid data file.

It behaves a lot more like a commodity than anything else I've found to compare it to.  It's not exactly the same (obviously), but a synthetic digital commodity intended for use as a currency explains quite a bit about it, and the history of how it's been used, abused, and offers a far better guess at the future of it than anything else I've found.  If you've got anything better, or more reasoned to offer, I'm happy to be proven inaccurate, but you're really not offering much of value in this conversation.  "Nuh uh!"  "Isn't."  "Stupid."  etc.

Huh? Thats a great description:”Damned scamcoin pyramid scheme power wasting criminal use bullshit”! I think it predicts what is going on perfectly.  Why are you saying its off limits?

I'm not saying it's off limits, I'm saying it does a horrid job of explaining where Bitcoin has been and how it's behaved, and I expect that means that it will remain a horrible explanation of where it's likely to go.  So, since you feel it's a perfectly good description of it with predictive power, what does that offer in terms of predictive value to you?

My "synthetic digital commodity" explanation would predict that, generally speaking, the cost to mine bitcoin over a long period will remain generally slightly below the value of the bitcoin mined - and most miners won't sell below their cost for long, which, as long as there's demand for bitcoin, means the value is like to rise over time to match the cost of mining, give or take.  However, it's also something that's entirely independent from the global financial system, and serves as a contrarian investment if you're not too happy with the way various countries are managing their finances.  Given the whole "Print, Baby, Print!" approach to US finances, I would expect a continued interest in Bitcoin and metals as a value store, which will tend to push their values up over time.  We've certainly seen gold head uphill in a hurry this year, Bitcoin is heading up in a hurry, and as Congress talks about printing yet more money, I'd expect these trends to generally continue.

What does your model predict?

Wow! Thats some money of the Future you got there...

Cash can be stolen, various bonds over time can be stolen (though they're less popular now for that reason), physical metals can be stolen, I see no particular reason to consider Bitcoin, as a generally anonymous (technically, pseudonymous) token of value to be much different.  The safeguards are different than one would use for the other tokens of value, because it's in a different realm (as much as it pains me, "cyber" does accurately describe the realm Bitcoin and blockchain in general operate in), but they're not particularly hard to apply.  Just different.

If your idea of an ideal financial system is centralized, "safe" bank accounts, where one is required to ask "Bank, May I?" before engaging in any transactions (with the very real chance that those transactions can/will be denied if the bank doesn't like the other party involved), there are plenty of places happy to charge you for the privilege.  Something operating outside that, without any centralized authority required in maintaining the chain of transfers, is something very interesting indeed.  It's not for everyone (as is obvious in this thread of blind assertion), but it offers some things that nothing else offers, it has downsides different from other asset classes, and at the very least, I think it's worth both understanding and paying attention to.

[WhiteTrashCash]

Think of Bitcoin like a gift card, except it’s a gift card to buy narcotics from North Korea.

[celerystalks]

How does one borrow a bitcoin? (And not some crappy escrow thingy. Like loan it out so it can be spent by the debtor).

And more importantly, if one is borrowed and there is a default on the loan, how does a crypto creditor obtain a judgment to recover the bitcoin? How is it enforced?

And suppose there is a couple of hard forks in the meantime before repayment is due? What should the debtor be required to return?

[Syonyk]

I know what I am talking about. Bitcoin and cryptos are dumb and their hodlers are delusional.

You've offered plenty of assertion, pretty much nothing of actual value.  Postcount++?

This was supposed to be an anti-bitcoin thread. I’m just making my contribution. But of course a bunch of bitcoin fanboi trolls decided to try to high-jack it. Sheesh.

I'll assume that was somewhat directed at me, since I've certainly put copious amounts of text into the thread so far, but... "fanboi troll"?  I try to keep a reasonably open eye to options out there, and I'll happily go on about the precautions required if one is handling large amounts of bitcoin, but... I mean, we move cash around in armored cars with armed guards, on known routes.  I don't see how precautions for handling a digital commodity/currency are somehow a problem.

And I'm certainly not trying to troll, unless the point of this thread is literally "Bitcoin sux, lol stupid bitcoiners, dumdums," at which point I've misunderstood at least this thread, and will escort myself out.  But it's filled with blindingly incorrect statements, so... on this forum, at least, seemed worth trying to have the discussion.

It’s a forum on education.  They are trying to give you a much needed learning.  Thankless heroes around here. 

*shrug*  I get the impression I'm quite unwelcome here, so should probably take my advice about the internet and stop even trying.  Most of the rest of the internet has lost any concept of nuance and reasoned disagreement, this forum has no particular reason to be any different...

To all:  the FIRE community (to which we all undoubtedly belong) has always been extremely hostile to cryptocurrencies.  It doesn’t fit into their(Our) spreadsheets on working 15 years, saving 70% of their income and not taking any risks.  Attaining FI without sacrificing time is frowned upon in the FIRE community.  It ain’t changing!

Yeah, I know.  It's a weird blindspot.  I'm not one for dumping everything repeatedly into unproven funds, but if you're at the "saving 70% of your income" point, there are very, very few downsides to keeping a small chunk of your investment (5% or so?) reserved for "This is insane, but..." sort of high risk, potential high reward activities.  If you lose it, and keep your losses contained, it really doesn't make a big difference in terms of timeline to FIRE, but even one or two good wins can really shorten the process - especially if they're early on, and you can then compound those gains for a decade or so.  I've known a number of people in person who do more or less that, and their failures on that front tend to make for good stories, while their successes more than make up for the losses.  Not everyone can do that, but if you've got your ear to the ground in certain spaces and can make heads or tails of vague rumors and news in your industry, well... a $100k payday is a $100k payday.

Anyway, sorry.  I mis-understood the point of this thread, and will go on my way, so... sorry for wasting everyone's time.

[onecoolcat]

It won’t be Bitcoin. Of this I am certain. Bitcoin has already failed as a currency.

Bitcoin nearly 4x since.

Investing in crytpo is God's way of telling you that you have too much money.

Bitcoin nearly 9x since.

[onecoolcat]

I know what I am talking about. Bitcoin and cryptos are dumb and their hodlers are delusional.

You've offered plenty of assertion, pretty much nothing of actual value.  Postcount++?

This was supposed to be an anti-bitcoin thread. I’m just making my contribution. But of course a bunch of bitcoin fanboi trolls decided to try to high-jack it. Sheesh.

I'll assume that was somewhat directed at me, since I've certainly put copious amounts of text into the thread so far, but... "fanboi troll"?  I try to keep a reasonably open eye to options out there, and I'll happily go on about the precautions required if one is handling large amounts of bitcoin, but... I mean, we move cash around in armored cars with armed guards, on known routes.  I don't see how precautions for handling a digital commodity/currency are somehow a problem.

And I'm certainly not trying to troll, unless the point of this thread is literally "Bitcoin sux, lol stupid bitcoiners, dumdums," at which point I've misunderstood at least this thread, and will escort myself out.  But it's filled with blindingly incorrect statements, so... on this forum, at least, seemed worth trying to have the discussion.

It’s a forum on education.  They are trying to give you a much needed learning.  Thankless heroes around here. 

*shrug*  I get the impression I'm quite unwelcome here, so should probably take my advice about the internet and stop even trying.  Most of the rest of the internet has lost any concept of nuance and reasoned disagreement, this forum has no particular reason to be any different...

To all:  the FIRE community (to which we all undoubtedly belong) has always been extremely hostile to cryptocurrencies.  It doesn’t fit into their(Our) spreadsheets on working 15 years, saving 70% of their income and not taking any risks.  Attaining FI without sacrificing time is frowned upon in the FIRE community.  It ain’t changing!

Yeah, I know.  It's a weird blindspot.  I'm not one for dumping everything repeatedly into unproven funds, but if you're at the "saving 70% of your income" point, there are very, very few downsides to keeping a small chunk of your investment (5% or so?) reserved for "This is insane, but..." sort of high risk, potential high reward activities.  If you lose it, and keep your losses contained, it really doesn't make a big difference in terms of timeline to FIRE, but even one or two good wins can really shorten the process - especially if they're early on, and you can then compound those gains for a decade or so.  I've known a number of people in person who do more or less that, and their failures on that front tend to make for good stories, while their successes more than make up for the losses.  Not everyone can do that, but if you've got your ear to the ground in certain spaces and can make heads or tails of vague rumors and news in your industry, well... a $100k payday is a $100k payday.

Anyway, sorry.  I mis-understood the point of this thread, and will go on my way, so... sorry for wasting everyone's time.

Right on.  I'm on track to FIRE in 7-years, WITHOUT any crypto and at a 3% withdrawal amount, at the ripe old age of 39-40.  I'm very conservative and only ever invested in crypto amounts I will not miss (too much). 

[celerystalks]

It won’t be Bitcoin. Of this I am certain. Bitcoin has already failed as a currency.

Bitcoin nearly 4x since.

Investing in crytpo is God's way of telling you that you have too much money.

Bitcoin nearly 9x since.

Exactly... it has failed as a currency. A currency is a unit of account and medium of exchange. Anything that has increased 4x within a year is not a viable currency since this level of appreciation represents incredible deflation (in terms of bitcoin). Why spend it? Keep hodling!

[HPstache]

Don't underestimate millenials... if they want to accept it as money, it will be money.  I'm tired of being on the wrong side of millenial opinions... and I AM one!

[chevy1956]

The last point I'd add is that gold and silver are exactly the same as bitcoin in so many ways. So if you are into gold and/or silver as part of your portfolio you could just use bitcoin. Personally I think investing in gold and/or silver is just as stupid.

Wrong.

Gold and silver are real and exist, have chemical properties, and have had value for thousands of years. Bitcoin, i.e. blockchain, is just a computer data file that has existed for almost twelve years. So basically they are nothing alike.

I’m always surprised how people are capable of ignoring the obvious when trying to make a point.

You are completely wrong. Does technology exist. What about data in databases. The blockchain is a fantastic tech creation. It exists. If anything I'd argue Bitcoin is a significantly better money alternative than gold and/or silver.

A lot more transactions would be completed today via Bitcoin than gold and/or silver.

Try to be logical and rational when making a point. Imagine trying to make out that in today's economy only physical assets have value. That is completely and utterly delusional.

The block chain is a stupid creation. It is a solution looking for a problem. Nothing needs to be done on-chain.  It only adds problems, worthless complexity, and inflexibility to everything it touches.

I am being logical and rational. We just disagree (mostly because I haven’t drunk the kool-aid that you clearly have).

I haven't drunk any kool-aid. Your argument wasn't logical. You stated that metals have some intrinsic value which they don't. I mean they have a tiny tiny little bit of intrinsic value but that has basically nothing at all to do with the price or gold and/or silver. They are speculative artifacts.

You are wrong and completely wrong.

[chevy1956]

It won’t be Bitcoin. Of this I am certain. Bitcoin has already failed as a currency.

Bitcoin nearly 4x since.

Investing in crytpo is God's way of telling you that you have too much money.

Bitcoin nearly 9x since.

Exactly... it has failed as a currency. A currency is a unit of account and medium of exchange. Anything that has increased 4x within a year is not a viable currency since this level of appreciation represents incredible deflation (in terms of bitcoin). Why spend it? Keep hodling!

You are really really struggling here. Try and understand there is a speculative component to cryptos just like there is a speculative component to gold and/or silver. It's the same thing dude. One difference is the cryptos are definitely a better means of exchange.

I'm not investing in cryptos or currencies or gold and/or silver because I don't invest in cash alternatives. They are means of exchange. Sure gold and/or silver go up and down just like bitcoin. None of that makes them wise investment decisions to have in your portfolio unless you are just after diversification. To me it's not a rational investment option but if you are into gold and/or silver you could easily use cryptos as an alternative.

You need to get some better arguments. Like maybe completely start over.

[Telecaster]

The block chain is a stupid creation. It is a solution looking for a problem. Nothing needs to be done on-chain.  It only adds problems, worthless complexity, and inflexibility to everything it touches.

I am being logical and rational. We just disagree (mostly because I haven’t drunk the kool-aid that you clearly have).

Blockchain itself has some intriguing uses.  It is essentially a distributed ledger, right?  So for things you want keep track of  it might make some sense.  If you could identify the provenance of a painting (at least since the blockchain was created) that would be a positive.  Same with property transactions and it isn't hard to thing of other things that you want a provenance for.  Autographs, etc. 

It goes off the rails when you try to use it as money.  Money is a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value.

Bitcoin meets those definitions only if you squint really, really hard.  Most places don't take Bitcoin.  So kinda fails as a medium of exchange. If they do accept Bitcoin, the price is almost always denominated in dollars.  So kinda fails as unit of account.  You can't get a mortgage denominated in Bitcoin.  You might be able to pay in Bitcoin but it is denominated in dollars.  The final criteria is still a question mark, but at best Bitcoin isn't a very stable store of value.

Bitcoin proponents often say Bitcoin is better than gold.  That is an amazingly low bar, and we don't even know if it is true.  Gold has value among collectors, and also there is also demand for industrial uses and for jewelry.  Bitcoin has value among collectors.  That doesn't seem even as good as gold, much less better. 

[BrokenBiscuits]

Can I go to the grocery store and hand the cashier some bitcoins to pay for my food ?
How about at the gas station
You use money to buy goods and services. 
Bitcoin is funny money and will disappear
It's not a wise long term investment 
Cash out now

Do you have index funds? Can you also not buy grocery’s by showing your index fund balance?
Do you own a house in part or in full? Can you also not buy grocery’s by letting the shopkeeper know this?

[Telecaster]

Do you have index funds? Can you also not buy grocery’s by showing your index fund balance?
Do you own a house in part or in full? Can you also not buy grocery’s by letting the shopkeeper know this?

No one is claiming that owning an index fund or home equity is the same as money. 

Similarly, owning Bitcoin isn't the same as money.  This is quite obvious.

[Pomegranate12]

I'd rather buy frozen concentrated orange juice futures than bitcoin

[Wintergreen78]

Based on my reading the recommendation is to use one of the big exchanges with a history that might stretch back ten whole years now! Make the exchange, then get the Bitcoin off the exchange and in to a cold wallet ASAP. Make sure you understand how to secure the wallet and the key. Don’t lose the key or you lose everything. Don’t get hacked or you lose everything. Then, when you go to make the exchange back to regular currency you have another risk point.

Yup.  Entirely correct.

Earlier observations on risk/reward are relevant here.  You keep your Bitcoin wallet on your gaming PC with tons of pirated games, well... don't be surprised when it gets emptied out.  Keep your bitcoin in an exchange, online, run by God knows who, having repurposed a domain (and presumably some code) for trading Magic the Gathering cards, well... yeah, you may have a bad time of it.

Keep your btc on a halfway secure system, with backups various places, and the risk is pretty low of losing it all.  Distribute as needed to a few different systems, and hold it yourself.  If you're not up for that, well, then, perhaps bitcoin isn't for you, but that you don't feel like dealing with the details doesn't mean there aren't other people who are perfectly fine with those details.

Cash in banks and investments with fidelity/vanguard/etc. have a whole regulatory/legal regime around them to protect you from fraud and theft.

Sure, and some would argue that said system is also nicely designed to protect the profit of banks and investment groups, keeping them from any risk of loss from the sort of idiotic decisions that would ruin individual investors, and may wish not to support that as much. ;)

Though it hardly seems to stop fraud and theft, it's just done in a different way from those places.

The infrastructure around cryptocurrency still seemed to be in the Wild West stage when I briefly looked into it.

Yeah.  It is.  We're into the third generation or so, and it's far better than the first and second generation, but... still not really anything trustworthy with large sums of money for extended periods of time.  Fortunately, you don't need to trust them with large sums of money for extended periods of time. ;)

I have no interest in becoming a computer security expert. I also don’t have much interest in digging through company histories to figure out which cryptocurrency exchanges are actually run well vs which are incompetent vs which are run by criminals who will run off to Thailand with all of their customer’s assets and then fake their deaths in order to steal all their money.

Ok.  So Bitcoin isn't for you.

Fair enough. I don’t have a problem if other people want to speculate on it, as long as they understand what they are getting in to. As you said - I decided it wasn’t for me.

I’m blown away when I hear the stories of people putting significant chunks of their net worth into cryptocurrencies with basically zero understanding of the underlying mechanism or risks.

[onecoolcat]

Most people don’t use Bitcoin as a currency.  It is much more an asset than anything.  That is certainly how institutional buyers place it in their portfolios.  See Michael Saylor.  No one buys bitcoin to buy groceries with it next week and that’s not a problem because no one buys gold to buy next weeks groceries either.  Unlike other assets, you can certainly use it as a currency if you wish.  You’re free to do that.  Who cares if a store doesn’t accept it directly if you can instantly buy your groceries with it anywhere that accepts credit/debit cards.  The same thing is said of my checking account when I travel overseas; I swipe my card, USD leaves my account and foreign monies enter the vendors account.  This doesn’t make the USD any less valuable because a coffee shop in Oslo wants to be paid in Krones.  These arguments against the value of Bitcoin are meritless.

[Pomegranate12]

It's monopoly money

[the_gastropod]

Blockchain itself has some intriguing uses.  It is essentially a distributed ledger, right?  So for things you want keep track of  it might make some sense.  If you could identify the provenance of a painting (at least since the blockchain was created) that would be a positive.  Same with property transactions and it isn't hard to thing of other things that you want a provenance for.  Autographs, etc. 

At first glance, this may seem pedantic, but I think it's an important clarification. A component of a blockchain is a Merkle Tree. Merkle Trees have been a thing in Computer Science since the late 1970s. Virtually all blockchain enthusiasm is about how neat Merkle Trees are (this talk about ledgers included). The only thing a blockchain gives you over a Merkle Tree is deliberate inefficiency to prevent the double-spending problem from allowing untrusted writers to the database. Blockchain is only usable in a completely digital sense. In the physical world, physics prevents double s pending, and there tend to be property laws and a common sense of "trust" in the legal system. Anyone talking about using blockchain to track physical goods either doesn't know what they're talking about or is trying to ride the hype wave to sell you something.

[celerystalks]

Most people don’t use Bitcoin as a currency.  It is much more an asset than anything.  That is certainly how institutional buyers place it in their portfolios.  See Michael Saylor.  No one buys bitcoin to buy groceries with it next week and that’s not a problem because no one buys gold to buy next weeks groceries either.  Unlike other assets, you can certainly use it as a currency if you wish.  You’re free to do that.  Who cares if a store doesn’t accept it directly if you can instantly buy your groceries with it anywhere that accepts credit/debit cards.  The same thing is said of my checking account when I travel overseas; I swipe my card, USD leaves my account and foreign monies enter the vendors account.  This doesn’t make the USD any less valuable because a coffee shop in Oslo wants to be paid in Krones.  These arguments against the value of Bitcoin are meritless.

Don’t try to change the subject with your army of strawmen!

This thread was started in order to discuss the fact that bitcoin isn’t real money. You admit that it’s not. On this we agree.

But then you go on to discuss value, how institutional investors have decided to speculate on it, and engage in whataboutisms regarding foreign currency conversion.  why?

None of this changes the fact that bitcoin isn’t money. And it never will be.

[the_gastropod]

[...] Who cares if a store doesn’t accept it directly if you can instantly buy your groceries with it anywhere that accepts credit/debit cards.  The same thing is said of my checking account when I travel overseas; I swipe my card, USD leaves my account and foreign monies enter the vendors account.  This doesn’t make the USD any less valuable because a coffee shop in Oslo wants to be paid in Krones.  These arguments against the value of Bitcoin are meritless.

If it was completely normal for the USD/SEK exchange rate to change by ~100% every 2 months, that would absolutely make USD less valuable as a currency.

[Pomegranate12]

Hey I'm just trying to help you guys.  Cash out now and count your blessings

[forgerator]

It won’t be Bitcoin. Of this I am certain. Bitcoin has already failed as a currency.

Bitcoin nearly 4x since.

Investing in crytpo is God's way of telling you that you have too much money.

Bitcoin nearly 9x since.

Exactly... it has failed as a currency. A currency is a unit of account and medium of exchange. Anything that has increased 4x within a year is not a viable currency since this level of appreciation represents incredible deflation (in terms of bitcoin). Why spend it? Keep hodling!

I think we are way past the argument of Bitcoin being a good currency (its not). It however is an excellent store of value and no one can deny that.

[forgerator]

Hey I'm just trying to help you guys.  Cash out now and count your blessings

how about let's put a pin in this and revisit on Dec 2021. Shall we?

[HPstache]

Hey I'm just trying to help you guys.  Cash out now and count your blessings

how about let's put a pin in this and revisit on Dec 2021. Shall we?

Set a reminder.  That's what I do.

[chevy1956]

Hey I'm just trying to help you guys.  Cash out now and count your blessings

how about let's put a pin in this and revisit on Dec 2021. Shall we?

I don't look at any investments with such a tiny time frame. The problem with bitcoin is that it might go gangbusters for 10 years but then it'll be worthless.

[Telecaster]

I think we are way past the argument of Bitcoin being a good currency (its not). It however is an excellent store of value and no one can deny that.

Depends on what you mean by "excellent store of value."  If you bought Bitcoin back in 2017-18 you would have found that Bitcoin by 2019 you had lost 2/3 - 4/5 of value. 

Losing that much value in that short if time I would place the "epically shitty store of value" category.