Author Topic: Bitcoin is funny money  (Read 156781 times)

celerystalks

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #250 on: January 23, 2021, 07:09:29 PM »
Here’s an interesting article. The author believes a big portion of bitcoin’s price increase over the last year can be explained by cash flows from Tether. https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3

The author also believes that there is a good chance that the people who created Tether are committing fraud and using it to launder money. I see from this and other articles that Tether is under investigation by the New York AG.

What do people think about this and its implications for Bitcoin?

Whaaaahh!?

People would use crypto currencies to commit financial crimes?

I’m shocked! Shocked, I tell you!

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #251 on: January 23, 2021, 10:07:14 PM »
Here’s an interesting article. The author believes a big portion of bitcoin’s price increase over the last year can be explained by cash flows from Tether. https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3

The author also believes that there is a good chance that the people who created Tether are committing fraud and using it to launder money. I see from this and other articles that Tether is under investigation by the New York AG.

What do people think about this and its implications for Bitcoin?
In my view, their claim is more serious.  Most purchases of Bitcoin are in Tether, which then determines the price of Bitcoin.  If the Southern District of New York determines Tether needs to be shut down, that causes Tether demand to evaporate - but it also takes Bitcoin demand down with it.  Their strongest argument, in my view, is comparing assets in the Bahamas vs Tether assets.  Tether's bank accounts are in the Bahamas, and the Bahamas reported overall inflows of $600M from all banks.  The problem is that Tether Ltd issued billions in new Tether... so where's the money?  It's not in their banks in the Bahamas.
(On wikipedia, Tether Ltd started backing USD with loans to other companies in 2019.  That could explain the disparity .. but that makes the situation murkier)

What actions can a U.S. court take against a company incorporated in Hong Kong, like Tether Ltd?  If the court case can't do much, and people don't panic, I'm not sure what happens.  Regardless of the outcome of the court case, if people panic, they could create a "bank run" on Tether: they sell Bitcoin to get Tether, then sell Tether for USD.  That would doubly hurt Bitcoin: you have people selling at any price .. and once they're gone, most Bitcoin demand (selling Tether to buy Bitcoin) dries up at the same time.

onecoolcat

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #252 on: January 23, 2021, 11:19:58 PM »
Tether is probably a scam.  Everyone in crypto has felt this way since 2017.  It will be a good thing for Bitcoin in the long run for Tether to get shut down.  Bitcoin was crash with it (temporarily) and will inevitably recover.  I don’t think Tether will get shut down though because banks get caught doing fraud all the time and they just get a slap on the wrist and continue finding new ways to commit fraud.  The SEC or whatever will just fine Tether and they will continue to operate.  It will still spook the market though.

I haven’t bought bitcoin since March when it was $4,000.  I would definitely buy bitcoin if Tether gets busted/fined because I think it’s a good thing and it would create a nice sale. 
« Last Edit: January 23, 2021, 11:22:40 PM by OneCoolCat »

CloudLiu

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #253 on: January 24, 2021, 07:59:10 AM »
Bitcoin is 21 century tulip bubble. Stay away as far as possible. It can't be used as store of value. Its value is not stable. It's not a currency. It's a virtual commodity which is powered by wasting more and more electricity doing unproductive work.  We better use that electricity to  power our transportation.

If bitcoin becomes too powerful, world governments will take it down, just as e-gold was taken down.  They can do so by cracking down miners and exchange services.

The only useful purpose bitcoin is if someone has something to hide: e.g. illegal activities, money laundering, terrorism funding.
We are not going to take bitcoin in every day business transactions when it can drop 30% next week.




Wintergreen78

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #254 on: January 24, 2021, 09:57:03 AM »
Tether is probably a scam.  Everyone in crypto has felt this way since 2017.  It will be a good thing for Bitcoin in the long run for Tether to get shut down.  Bitcoin was crash with it (temporarily) and will inevitably recover.  I don’t think Tether will get shut down though because banks get caught doing fraud all the time and they just get a slap on the wrist and continue finding new ways to commit fraud.  The SEC or whatever will just fine Tether and they will continue to operate.  It will still spook the market though.

I haven’t bought bitcoin since March when it was $4,000.  I would definitely buy bitcoin if Tether gets busted/fined because I think it’s a good thing and it would create a nice sale.

That’s a fascinating comment about banks committing fraud all the time and only getting a slap on the wrist. Off the top of my head I can’t think of any cases I’ve heard about. Do you have any specific examples?

I did a quick google search and only came up with examples of people trying to defraud banks. I also found lots of examples of people who were committing crimes who got caught because banks are required to report suspicious transactions. I found a few examples of low level bank employees getting caught trying to defraud banks, but no cases where banks defrauded the people who had deposits in the bank.

Arguing that Bitcoin is a good choice because it reduces your exposure to fraud doesn’t seem to be supported by anything I’ve seen.

onecoolcat

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #255 on: January 24, 2021, 12:35:00 PM »
Tether is probably a scam.  Everyone in crypto has felt this way since 2017.  It will be a good thing for Bitcoin in the long run for Tether to get shut down.  Bitcoin was crash with it (temporarily) and will inevitably recover.  I don’t think Tether will get shut down though because banks get caught doing fraud all the time and they just get a slap on the wrist and continue finding new ways to commit fraud.  The SEC or whatever will just fine Tether and they will continue to operate.  It will still spook the market though.

I haven’t bought bitcoin since March when it was $4,000.  I would definitely buy bitcoin if Tether gets busted/fined because I think it’s a good thing and it would create a nice sale.

That’s a fascinating comment about banks committing fraud all the time and only getting a slap on the wrist. Off the top of my head I can’t think of any cases I’ve heard about. Do you have any specific examples?

I did a quick google search and only came up with examples of people trying to defraud banks. I also found lots of examples of people who were committing crimes who got caught because banks are required to report suspicious transactions. I found a few examples of low level bank employees getting caught trying to defraud banks, but no cases where banks defrauded the people who had deposits in the bank.

Arguing that Bitcoin is a good choice because it reduces your exposure to fraud doesn’t seem to be supported by anything I’ve seen.

Google Wells Fargo fraud. 

Wintergreen78

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #256 on: January 24, 2021, 01:55:37 PM »
Tether is probably a scam.  Everyone in crypto has felt this way since 2017.  It will be a good thing for Bitcoin in the long run for Tether to get shut down.  Bitcoin was crash with it (temporarily) and will inevitably recover.  I don’t think Tether will get shut down though because banks get caught doing fraud all the time and they just get a slap on the wrist and continue finding new ways to commit fraud.  The SEC or whatever will just fine Tether and they will continue to operate.  It will still spook the market though.

I haven’t bought bitcoin since March when it was $4,000.  I would definitely buy bitcoin if Tether gets busted/fined because I think it’s a good thing and it would create a nice sale.

That’s a fascinating comment about banks committing fraud all the time and only getting a slap on the wrist. Off the top of my head I can’t think of any cases I’ve heard about. Do you have any specific examples?

I did a quick google search and only came up with examples of people trying to defraud banks. I also found lots of examples of people who were committing crimes who got caught because banks are required to report suspicious transactions. I found a few examples of low level bank employees getting caught trying to defraud banks, but no cases where banks defrauded the people who had deposits in the bank.

Arguing that Bitcoin is a good choice because it reduces your exposure to fraud doesn’t seem to be supported by anything I’ve seen.

Google Wells Fargo fraud.

Interesting. In the Wikipedia page on that I see that the impact on customers totaled about $2,000,000 over 85,000 accounts, or an average impact of $23.50 per customer. I also see that the penalties to Wells Fargo totaled $3,000,000,000. That seems like a pretty significant penalty to me, not a “slap on the wrist”. Furthermore, it does not seem like the impacts to any one customer were life-changing.

How does the scale of that one instance of fraud compare to typical fraud rates and impacts for cryptocurrency? Here’s an article I found with a quick search that claims cryptocurrency theft and fraud topped $4.4 billion in 2019. https://currency.com/biggest-cryptocurrency-scams-of-2019

If you consider the total activity in cryptocurrency is a tiny fraction of fiat currency, it still seems that your risk of fraud is orders of magnitude higher with cryptocurrency.

Do you have any examples of bank fraud where any individuals lost significant percentages of their assets?

celerystalks

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #257 on: January 24, 2021, 02:24:40 PM »
Tether is probably a scam.  Everyone in crypto has felt this way since 2017.  It will be a good thing for Bitcoin in the long run for Tether to get shut down.  Bitcoin was crash with it (temporarily) and will inevitably recover.  I don’t think Tether will get shut down though because banks get caught doing fraud all the time and they just get a slap on the wrist and continue finding new ways to commit fraud.  The SEC or whatever will just fine Tether and they will continue to operate.  It will still spook the market though.

I haven’t bought bitcoin since March when it was $4,000.  I would definitely buy bitcoin if Tether gets busted/fined because I think it’s a good thing and it would create a nice sale.

That’s a fascinating comment about banks committing fraud all the time and only getting a slap on the wrist. Off the top of my head I can’t think of any cases I’ve heard about. Do you have any specific examples?

I did a quick google search and only came up with examples of people trying to defraud banks. I also found lots of examples of people who were committing crimes who got caught because banks are required to report suspicious transactions. I found a few examples of low level bank employees getting caught trying to defraud banks, but no cases where banks defrauded the people who had deposits in the bank.

Arguing that Bitcoin is a good choice because it reduces your exposure to fraud doesn’t seem to be supported by anything I’ve seen.

Google Wells Fargo fraud.

Interesting. In the Wikipedia page on that I see that the impact on customers totaled about $2,000,000 over 85,000 accounts, or an average impact of $23.50 per customer. I also see that the penalties to Wells Fargo totaled $3,000,000,000. That seems like a pretty significant penalty to me, not a “slap on the wrist”. Furthermore, it does not seem like the impacts to any one customer were life-changing.

How does the scale of that one instance of fraud compare to typical fraud rates and impacts for cryptocurrency? Here’s an article I found with a quick search that claims cryptocurrency theft and fraud topped $4.4 billion in 2019. https://currency.com/biggest-cryptocurrency-scams-of-2019

If you consider the total activity in cryptocurrency is a tiny fraction of fiat currency, it still seems that your risk of fraud is orders of magnitude higher with cryptocurrency.

Do you have any examples of bank fraud where any individuals lost significant percentages of their assets?
Should we consider the fraud as against the customers? Or against the investing public who were mislead to believe that the company was growing and firming customer relationships much faster than they actually were?

onecoolcat

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #258 on: January 24, 2021, 02:32:15 PM »
Tether is probably a scam.  Everyone in crypto has felt this way since 2017.  It will be a good thing for Bitcoin in the long run for Tether to get shut down.  Bitcoin was crash with it (temporarily) and will inevitably recover.  I don’t think Tether will get shut down though because banks get caught doing fraud all the time and they just get a slap on the wrist and continue finding new ways to commit fraud.  The SEC or whatever will just fine Tether and they will continue to operate.  It will still spook the market though.

I haven’t bought bitcoin since March when it was $4,000.  I would definitely buy bitcoin if Tether gets busted/fined because I think it’s a good thing and it would create a nice sale.

That’s a fascinating comment about banks committing fraud all the time and only getting a slap on the wrist. Off the top of my head I can’t think of any cases I’ve heard about. Do you have any specific examples?

I did a quick google search and only came up with examples of people trying to defraud banks. I also found lots of examples of people who were committing crimes who got caught because banks are required to report suspicious transactions. I found a few examples of low level bank employees getting caught trying to defraud banks, but no cases where banks defrauded the people who had deposits in the bank.

Arguing that Bitcoin is a good choice because it reduces your exposure to fraud doesn’t seem to be supported by anything I’ve seen.

Google Wells Fargo fraud.

Interesting. In the Wikipedia page on that I see that the impact on customers totaled about $2,000,000 over 85,000 accounts, or an average impact of $23.50 per customer. I also see that the penalties to Wells Fargo totaled $3,000,000,000. That seems like a pretty significant penalty to me, not a “slap on the wrist”. Furthermore, it does not seem like the impacts to any one customer were life-changing.

How does the scale of that one instance of fraud compare to typical fraud rates and impacts for cryptocurrency? Here’s an article I found with a quick search that claims cryptocurrency theft and fraud topped $4.4 billion in 2019. https://currency.com/biggest-cryptocurrency-scams-of-2019

If you consider the total activity in cryptocurrency is a tiny fraction of fiat currency, it still seems that your risk of fraud is orders of magnitude higher with cryptocurrency.

Do you have any examples of bank fraud where any individuals lost significant percentages of their assets?

Interesting.  You think a $3b settlement, paid over the course of a decade, to a financial institution worth well over $100b is a significant sum.  Since you like articles, here is one that calls the settlement a slap on the wrist:  https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/democrats-slam-243-billion-wells-fargo-settlement-as-slap-on-the-wrist/ar-BB10kQum

It's also interesting how this went from comparing the frauds of a digitalized stable coin to banks to talking about random cryptocurrency exit scams and hacks.  Since we are going there, exit scams didn't start with OneCoin (which is not even a cryptocurrency btw because it never even had a blockchain).  Bernie Maddoff exit scammed more than the entire market caps of 99% of all cryptocurrency's combined (not including the top 10 coins).  Also, people get their credit card info hacked all the time so, again, compromised wallets is nothing unique to cryptocurrencies.

Do you also think gift cards are only used for fraud because some Nigerian Prince has a multi-million dollar scam going on where old folks send them apple cards?
« Last Edit: January 24, 2021, 02:36:31 PM by OneCoolCat »

Telecaster

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #259 on: January 24, 2021, 06:35:08 PM »
Tether is probably a scam.  Everyone in crypto has felt this way since 2017.  It will be a good thing for Bitcoin in the long run for Tether to get shut down.  Bitcoin was crash with it (temporarily) and will inevitably recover.  I don’t think Tether will get shut down though because banks get caught doing fraud all the time and they just get a slap on the wrist and continue finding new ways to commit fraud.  The SEC or whatever will just fine Tether and they will continue to operate.  It will still spook the market though.

I haven’t bought bitcoin since March when it was $4,000.  I would definitely buy bitcoin if Tether gets busted/fined because I think it’s a good thing and it would create a nice sale.

I was under the impression the SEC does not regulate cryptocurrency.  Is that incorrect? 

Telecaster

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #260 on: January 24, 2021, 06:39:32 PM »

Interesting.  You think a $3b settlement, paid over the course of a decade, to a financial institution worth well over $100b is a significant sum.  Since you like articles, here is one that calls the settlement a slap on the wrist:  https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/democrats-slam-243-billion-wells-fargo-settlement-as-slap-on-the-wrist/ar-BB10kQum

It's also interesting how this went from comparing the frauds of a digitalized stable coin to banks to talking about random cryptocurrency exit scams and hacks.  Since we are going there, exit scams didn't start with OneCoin (which is not even a cryptocurrency btw because it never even had a blockchain).  Bernie Maddoff exit scammed more than the entire market caps of 99% of all cryptocurrency's combined (not including the top 10 coins).  Also, people get their credit card info hacked all the time so, again, compromised wallets is nothing unique to cryptocurrencies.

Do you also think gift cards are only used for fraud because some Nigerian Prince has a multi-million dollar scam going on where old folks send them apple cards?

Good point. Because banks aren't regulated enough, we should trust all crypto currencies without reservation. 

Wintergreen78

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #261 on: January 24, 2021, 07:44:30 PM »
Tether is probably a scam.  Everyone in crypto has felt this way since 2017.  It will be a good thing for Bitcoin in the long run for Tether to get shut down.  Bitcoin was crash with it (temporarily) and will inevitably recover.  I don’t think Tether will get shut down though because banks get caught doing fraud all the time and they just get a slap on the wrist and continue finding new ways to commit fraud.  The SEC or whatever will just fine Tether and they will continue to operate.  It will still spook the market though.

I haven’t bought bitcoin since March when it was $4,000.  I would definitely buy bitcoin if Tether gets busted/fined because I think it’s a good thing and it would create a nice sale.

That’s a fascinating comment about banks committing fraud all the time and only getting a slap on the wrist. Off the top of my head I can’t think of any cases I’ve heard about. Do you have any specific examples?

I did a quick google search and only came up with examples of people trying to defraud banks. I also found lots of examples of people who were committing crimes who got caught because banks are required to report suspicious transactions. I found a few examples of low level bank employees getting caught trying to defraud banks, but no cases where banks defrauded the people who had deposits in the bank.

Arguing that Bitcoin is a good choice because it reduces your exposure to fraud doesn’t seem to be supported by anything I’ve seen.

Google Wells Fargo fraud.

Interesting. In the Wikipedia page on that I see that the impact on customers totaled about $2,000,000 over 85,000 accounts, or an average impact of $23.50 per customer. I also see that the penalties to Wells Fargo totaled $3,000,000,000. That seems like a pretty significant penalty to me, not a “slap on the wrist”. Furthermore, it does not seem like the impacts to any one customer were life-changing.

How does the scale of that one instance of fraud compare to typical fraud rates and impacts for cryptocurrency? Here’s an article I found with a quick search that claims cryptocurrency theft and fraud topped $4.4 billion in 2019. https://currency.com/biggest-cryptocurrency-scams-of-2019

If you consider the total activity in cryptocurrency is a tiny fraction of fiat currency, it still seems that your risk of fraud is orders of magnitude higher with cryptocurrency.

Do you have any examples of bank fraud where any individuals lost significant percentages of their assets?
Should we consider the fraud as against the customers? Or against the investing public who were mislead to believe that the company was growing and firming customer relationships much faster than they actually were?

If I was going to put a significant amount of money into an asset, the biggest risk I would evaluate us the risk of losing the investment. In the case of Wells Fargo’s fraudulent activity, it looks like the direct victims lost relatively small amounts of money. They also had restitution through the criminal and civil penalties that Wells Fargo was subjected to.

All the stories I see about cryptocurrency fraud end with the fraud victims not having any way to be made whole.

Syonyk

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #262 on: January 24, 2021, 08:49:14 PM »
Bitcoin is 21 century tulip bubble. Stay away as far as possible.

You're welcome to do that, though it's certainly not behaved as a weird "one and done" bubble.  One might point to the various tech and housing bubbles as well, but... bubbles are mostly obvious in retrospect.  Or, around the time the mainstream media starts going on about how they can't possibly fail, new normal, etc.  That's typically a good time to diversify out some.

Quote
It can't be used as store of value. Its value is not stable.

It's certainly more volatile than metals, but it really depends on what one is looking for in a store of value.  Bitcoin remains nominally dependent on a working internet, though one could certainly keep it working on alternate comms systems.  But it's certainly an interestingly diversified value store for the short term, at least.  It just has... quite a bit of volatility.

Quote
It's not a currency. It's a virtual commodity which is powered by wasting more and more electricity doing unproductive work.  We better use that electricity to  power our transportation.

"Wasting" is a value judgement.  Obviously you don't think Bitcoin is of any value, so energy spent on it is a waste.  Those who value a decentralized ledger without any central controls might not consider it nearly so wasteful.  Certainly it's more interesting than selling ads on repackaged content...

Quote
If bitcoin becomes too powerful, world governments will take it down, just as e-gold was taken down.  They can do so by cracking down miners and exchange services.

World governments can't even keep The Pirate Bay offline, and that's run by a couple of drunken fucknuts (by their own admission).  You can certainly cause problems by putting screws into the exchanges, but even then, individual exchange remains, and flat out banning things rarely works as hoped for.  Treating it as any other commodity in terms of exchange makes reasonable sense.

Quote
We are not going to take bitcoin in every day business transactions when it can drop 30% next week.

Yet, presumably, you do take dollars, which decrease in value on a pretty regular schedule?  Not quite as volatile, but they also very rarely go up in value.  A few trillion printed here, a few trillion handed out there, I mean... at some point, that starts to look like an awful lot of money.

All the stories I see about cryptocurrency fraud end with the fraud victims not having any way to be made whole.

It's a different class of assets, with different risks.  If you've got a $100 in your wallet that gets stolen, it's pretty hard to get that back as well.  On the flip side, it's reasonably unlikely that carrying a chunk of value in bitcoin across the country is going to be taken by police during a speeding ticket, either.  Understand the asset class and act accordingly.  If you value having all your assets in a centralized institution that has insurance, go for it.  If you'd rather trend in the riskier waters of cryptocurrencies, go for it.  Someone putting $10k in back at $200/coin in 2015 could very well be comfortably retired on that, 5 years later.  Not guaranteed, but depending on where you are, the loss of $10k isn't terribly meaningful either.

In any case, I'm out of this thread.  Clearly minds are made up, and there's no particular point in an actual discussion when both sides are firmly entrenched.

Or, in the spirit of meaningless assertions that this thread seems to be, "Two Bitcoins Good, Four Bitcoins Better!"

lifeanon269

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #263 on: January 25, 2021, 05:45:09 AM »
Here’s an interesting article. The author believes a big portion of bitcoin’s price increase over the last year can be explained by cash flows from Tether. https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3

The author also believes that there is a good chance that the people who created Tether are committing fraud and using it to launder money. I see from this and other articles that Tether is under investigation by the New York AG.

What do people think about this and its implications for Bitcoin?

This article and tether FUD in general has long been debunked. There are several crucial mistakes that the author makes in their interpretation of what is taking place in the markets. The first mistake is using coinmarketcap in their analysis and using the volume reported on that as some indication for where real trading activity is taking place. This slidedeck to the SEC explains further in detail.

https://www.sec.gov/comments/sr-nysearca-2019-01/srnysearca201901-5164833-183434.pdf

So the very foundation of the author's thesis here is built on using faulty trading volume data to begin with. Not to mention the author lacks understanding of the markets he's talking about. For example, one of the exchanges he specifically mentions (ByBit) in a conversation with one of his friends "Bob" is actually a derivatives exchange and it is clear from the conversion that he has with Bob that he thinks a derivatives exchanges operates the same as a buy/sell spot exchange.

There have also been several studies that have shown that issuance of Tether has not driven the price of bitcoin.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3175876
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3508006

Finally, one of the only reasons people move bitcoin to these offshore exchanges is to trade in obscure crypto-currencies that can't be purchased anywhere else. Nobody is moving money to these exchanges to buy bitcoin since you can buy bitcoin legally just about anywhere. If there was any collapse of Tether, it would result in a massive flood toward bitcoin since it is the only way off these exchanges and it is the de facto reserve currency for the entire cryptocurrency market. So, at least in the short term, if there were a Tether scare, demand for real on-chain bitcoin would spike because of a move to get money off these exchanges. And since, as shown, the trading volume on these exchanges has little to do with actual bitcoin spot prices, I don't think the long term impact to bitcoin is significant in any meaningful way.

Let's face it, Grayscale alone bought more bitcoin than was mined in all of Q4 2020 and continues to do so. PayPal, Square and other institutions are also buying up way more bitcoin than in being mined. None of these massive buys taking place use or care about Tether and they're real acquisitions of bitcoin. To claim that derivative trading on some offshore exchange is what is driving up the price is just a misrepresentation of the trend that is taking place currently in the bitcoin market.

celerystalks

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #264 on: January 25, 2021, 05:59:25 AM »


Let's face it, Grayscale alone bought more bitcoin than was mined in all of Q4 2020 and continues to do so. PayPal, Square and other institutions are also buying up way more bitcoin than in being mined. None of these massive buys taking place use or care about Tether and they're real acquisitions of bitcoin. To claim that derivative trading on some offshore exchange is what is driving up the price is just a misrepresentation of the trend that is taking place currently in the bitcoin market.

This is sort of a worrying development for these companies.

Companies that thrusts themselves into bitcoin seems to get devoured from the inside by it.  Think overstock.com and longblockchain (formerly long island iced tea).  Really, this is getting quite silly.





exmmmer

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #265 on: February 02, 2021, 08:18:09 AM »

Father Dougal

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #266 on: February 04, 2021, 11:10:54 AM »
The MicroStrategy story is amazing. They are a listed business intelligence company (with quarterly revenue of about $130m, I think) that is also effectively borrowing in US$ and then putting a billion dollars of cash into Bitcoin. A fall in US$ value of Bitcoin could wipe out the company's equity, right? Or maybe I'm missing something. I wonder what the convenants are on their $650m of convertible debt. The mind boggles.

Still, I suppose the shareholders are ok with it. And it's worked out well for them so far.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2021, 11:15:04 AM by Father Dougal »

SuperSecretName

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #267 on: February 04, 2021, 12:27:53 PM »
The MicroStrategy story is amazing. They are a listed business intelligence company (with quarterly revenue of about $130m, I think) that is also effectively borrowing in US$ and then putting a billion dollars of cash into Bitcoin. A fall in US$ value of Bitcoin could wipe out the company's equity, right? Or maybe I'm missing something. I wonder what the convenants are on their $650m of convertible debt. The mind boggles.

Still, I suppose the shareholders are ok with it. And it's worked out well for them so far.
It was all their reserve, so no impact on operations.  They had low debt, and are paying 75 bps on the bonds (arguably too much as the bond offering was like 50% oversubscribed), which they can finance with cash flows.  The results speak for themselves.

celerystalks

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #268 on: February 04, 2021, 12:30:52 PM »
The MicroStrategy story is amazing. They are a listed business intelligence company (with quarterly revenue of about $130m, I think) that is also effectively borrowing in US$ and then putting a billion dollars of cash into Bitcoin. A fall in US$ value of Bitcoin could wipe out the company's equity, right? Or maybe I'm missing something. I wonder what the convenants are on their $650m of convertible debt. The mind boggles.

Still, I suppose the shareholders are ok with it. And it's worked out well for them so far.

Or what happens if the private keys get lost or stolen? How many people know the keys or where it is that they are stored?

SuperSecretName

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #269 on: February 04, 2021, 12:33:59 PM »
The MicroStrategy story is amazing. They are a listed business intelligence company (with quarterly revenue of about $130m, I think) that is also effectively borrowing in US$ and then putting a billion dollars of cash into Bitcoin. A fall in US$ value of Bitcoin could wipe out the company's equity, right? Or maybe I'm missing something. I wonder what the convenants are on their $650m of convertible debt. The mind boggles.

Still, I suppose the shareholders are ok with it. And it's worked out well for them so far.

Or what happens if the private keys get lost or stolen? How many people know the keys or where it is that they are stored?
With a billion dollars at stake there are going to be plenty of precautions.  Bitcoin has something called multi-sig, where you need like 3 of 5 people to do the transaction (or 2 of 3, or really X of Y, doesn't matter).  They aren't the only one's doing this, and there are plenty of institutional and custody solutions.  It's not as scary as one person only controls the billion.

celerystalks

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #270 on: February 04, 2021, 04:16:34 PM »
The MicroStrategy story is amazing. They are a listed business intelligence company (with quarterly revenue of about $130m, I think) that is also effectively borrowing in US$ and then putting a billion dollars of cash into Bitcoin. A fall in US$ value of Bitcoin could wipe out the company's equity, right? Or maybe I'm missing something. I wonder what the convenants are on their $650m of convertible debt. The mind boggles.

Still, I suppose the shareholders are ok with it. And it's worked out well for them so far.

Or what happens if the private keys get lost or stolen? How many people know the keys or where it is that they are stored?
With a billion dollars at stake there are going to be plenty of precautions.  Bitcoin has something called multi-sig, where you need like 3 of 5 people to do the transaction (or 2 of 3, or really X of Y, doesn't matter).  They aren't the only one's doing this, and there are plenty of institutional and custody solutions.  It's not as scary as one person only controls the billion.

Bitcoin has native support for multi-sig?

SuperSecretName

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #271 on: February 04, 2021, 04:32:25 PM »
The MicroStrategy story is amazing. They are a listed business intelligence company (with quarterly revenue of about $130m, I think) that is also effectively borrowing in US$ and then putting a billion dollars of cash into Bitcoin. A fall in US$ value of Bitcoin could wipe out the company's equity, right? Or maybe I'm missing something. I wonder what the convenants are on their $650m of convertible debt. The mind boggles.

Still, I suppose the shareholders are ok with it. And it's worked out well for them so far.

Or what happens if the private keys get lost or stolen? How many people know the keys or where it is that they are stored?
With a billion dollars at stake there are going to be plenty of precautions.  Bitcoin has something called multi-sig, where you need like 3 of 5 people to do the transaction (or 2 of 3, or really X of Y, doesn't matter).  They aren't the only one's doing this, and there are plenty of institutional and custody solutions.  It's not as scary as one person only controls the billion.

Bitcoin has native support for multi-sig?
Yes, post 2012/2013, that support was added.  There are numerous hardware wallets that now support it also.

celerystalks

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #272 on: February 04, 2021, 05:01:10 PM »
The MicroStrategy story is amazing. They are a listed business intelligence company (with quarterly revenue of about $130m, I think) that is also effectively borrowing in US$ and then putting a billion dollars of cash into Bitcoin. A fall in US$ value of Bitcoin could wipe out the company's equity, right? Or maybe I'm missing something. I wonder what the convenants are on their $650m of convertible debt. The mind boggles.

Still, I suppose the shareholders are ok with it. And it's worked out well for them so far.

Or what happens if the private keys get lost or stolen? How many people know the keys or where it is that they are stored?
With a billion dollars at stake there are going to be plenty of precautions.  Bitcoin has something called multi-sig, where you need like 3 of 5 people to do the transaction (or 2 of 3, or really X of Y, doesn't matter).  They aren't the only one's doing this, and there are plenty of institutional and custody solutions.  It's not as scary as one person only controls the billion.

Bitcoin has native support for multi-sig?
Yes, post 2012/2013, that support was added.  There are numerous hardware wallets that now support it also.

Source ?

lifeanon269

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #273 on: February 04, 2021, 05:54:46 PM »
Source ?

Do you not believe him? Multi-sig has been around in bitcoin for quite some time and there are many solutions out there that support multi-sig today. Multi-sig has been around since early 2012 ever since support for the new address type with pay-2-script-hash (P2SH) came about. More information about multi-sig with bitcoin can be found here:

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Multisignature

Father Dougal

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #274 on: February 05, 2021, 03:13:45 AM »
The MicroStrategy story is amazing. They are a listed business intelligence company (with quarterly revenue of about $130m, I think) that is also effectively borrowing in US$ and then putting a billion dollars of cash into Bitcoin. A fall in US$ value of Bitcoin could wipe out the company's equity, right? Or maybe I'm missing something. I wonder what the convenants are on their $650m of convertible debt. The mind boggles.

Still, I suppose the shareholders are ok with it. And it's worked out well for them so far.
It was all their reserve, so no impact on operations.  They had low debt, and are paying 75 bps on the bonds (arguably too much as the bond offering was like 50% oversubscribed), which they can finance with cash flows.  The results speak for themselves.

The operations and interest bill of this company are a bit of a sideshow compared to its position in Bitcoin. I went scurrying back to its balance sheet and cash flow (because I’m a bit of a finance nerd and I love this stuff!), and I was very surprised at what I found. (Please do not take this as a criticism of Bitcoin. It’s just such an unusual position for a company to be in, and so directly related to Bitcoin and its volatility, that I thought it would be interesting to see what you all thought.)

At the end of 2019, MSTR was a software and service company with about $500m in cash and no debt. Its share price had been fairly stable (and underperforming the NASDAQ) for around 20 years since falling from a dotcom spike in 2000.

Cash flow from operations in 2020 was about $50m from its normal business.

In 2020 MSTR raised convertible debt of $650m. With the proceeds of this and the $500m of balance sheet cash, MSTR bought $1.125bn of Bitcoin, which is currently held at about $1bn on the balance sheet (average carrying value of about $15,000).

So, at BTC of about $35,000, MSTR is sitting on a gain of about $1.6bn. So, about 30 years of 2020 cash from operations of their normal business. As this has happened, the share price has soared.

What we have here is a geared play on BTC. Shareholders of MSTR might not borrow dollars to invest in BTC; but the company is doing it in their behalf. If BTC falls back to where it was on 31 Dec 2019 ($7,250), the gain will swing to a loss of $550m. That loss will have to be booked as an impairment in the accounts and could wipe out shareholders’ equity (technical insolvency). If the BTC price keeps rising, MSTR shareholders will get a huge benefit. But, in one further twist, the debt issued is convertible to MSTR shares at $397 per share, so BTC gains (which will of course be reflected in the share price) will be diluted for existing shareholders.

It’s actually the debt holders of MSTR that are getting the real exposure to any further rise in BTC price. This is a way to effectively buy an option on BTC. They have exposure to the geared play on BTC via a put option on the share price. That’s probably why the debt is so cheap (but let’s not forget, even with 0.75% interest rate, that’s nearly $5m per year for a company generating $50m cash from operations).

Let’s hope they don’t lose the keys! (Just kidding! Calm down everyone.) So, I think that the above figures are more or less right (I’m sure you’ll tell me if they’re not!), and all the above is factual. But subjectively, this makes me very uneasy. A cynical person might say that a company has been hijacked and used as a BTC speculation scheme. The average shareholder will be very happy with the run up in the share price without perhaps fully understanding the risks being taken.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2021, 03:15:29 AM by Father Dougal »

Syonyk

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #275 on: February 05, 2021, 06:15:02 PM »
Or what happens if the private keys get lost or stolen? How many people know the keys or where it is that they are stored?

"Oh no!  What about this totally catastrophic thing I just thought about that I'm sure people who literally do crypto design and development for a living never thought of???"

Seriously, multi-party crypto key is a long since solved problem that, in a very real way, makes the modern internet work.  Look into the signing ceremonies for things like the root signing certs for major SSL providers.

seattlecyclone

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #276 on: February 06, 2021, 01:59:09 AM »
I did do a bit of a double-take when I discovered it was MicroStrategy making this BTC play. They were one of the top competitors to a previous employer of mine back in the day. Now it seems that the software is a secondary endeavor to the BTC investment strategy. Kinda weird.

Syonyk

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #277 on: February 06, 2021, 11:00:34 AM »
So, uh... BTC is back at US$40k. :p

The whole "It Begins!" meme really did not age well.

Painters Brush

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #278 on: February 06, 2021, 11:22:01 AM »
I think it's hilarious that the hedge against fiat currency is a virtual fiat currency.

I'm not saying that traders can't make money trading this but if I were motivated to hedge against fiat currency, I'd definitely choose hard assets.

Years ago when this phenomenon started I remember wondering if I should throw a thousand dollars into bitcoin but then the idea was chastened by the thought of how I would explain that to my wife. LOL

onecoolcat

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #279 on: February 06, 2021, 02:18:15 PM »
I think it's hilarious that the hedge against fiat currency is a virtual fiat currency.

I'm not saying that traders can't make money trading this but if I were motivated to hedge against fiat currency, I'd definitely choose hard assets.

Years ago when this phenomenon started I remember wondering if I should throw a thousand dollars into bitcoin but then the idea was chastened by the thought of how I would explain that to my wife. LOL

Sorry for your loss.

Juan Ponce de León

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #280 on: February 06, 2021, 02:34:14 PM »
It's amazing that the most vocal experts on bitcoin are always the people who don't own any and don't actually know anything about how it works.

Syonyk

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #281 on: February 06, 2021, 03:12:59 PM »
I think it's hilarious that the hedge against fiat currency is a virtual fiat currency.

Um.  What, exactly, are you using to determine what is or isn't a fiat currency?

Bitcoin most definitely isn't.  Synthetic commodity, yes.  Synthetic commodity currency, matter of opinion that has been several pages of this thread.  But it's most assuredly not a fiat currency by any reasonable definition.

celerystalks

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #282 on: February 06, 2021, 03:53:03 PM »
I think it's hilarious that the hedge against fiat currency is a virtual fiat currency.

Um.  What, exactly, are you using to determine what is or isn't a fiat currency?

Bitcoin most definitely isn't.  Synthetic commodity, yes.  Synthetic commodity currency, matter of opinion that has been several pages of this thread.  But it's most assuredly not a fiat currency by any reasonable definition.

Bitcoins are not commodities. Commodities are fungible economic goods, i.e. scarce raw materials. Bitcoin are not economic goods. They are not raw materials for anything.

celerystalks

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #283 on: February 06, 2021, 03:59:00 PM »
The dirty secret about bitcoin, and about dollars and euros and renminbi, and gold and silver and gold-plated latinum, is they are ALL funny money.

Money isn't real.   It's a medium of exchange of goods and services.

Bitcoin has no inherent value, unless people exchanging goods and services agree to assign it a value as a means of exchange.   The day people decide it's worthless, it's worthless.

The US dollar has no inherent value, unless people exchanging goods and services agree to assign it a value as a means of exchange.  The day people decide it's worthless, it's worthless.

Gold has no inherent value, unless people exchanging goods and services agree to assign it a value as a means of exchange.   The day people decide it's worthless, it's worthless.

The U.S. dollar has value because creditors (including the U.S. government) are legally required to accept it to settle debts. Accordingly a debtor supplying U.S. dollars act as limit to the government’s use of force to seize other property that the debtor may have. In that sense U.S. dollars have real value.

Gold is a scarce luxury metal used throughout to make jewelry (as well as some minor industrial uses). Given that human desire for luxuries is unlimited and cannot be satisfied demand for gold will never disappear.

Syonyk

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #284 on: February 06, 2021, 04:28:14 PM »
Money isn't real.   It's a medium of exchange of goods and services.

{Bitcoin, The US Dollar, Gold} has no inherent value, unless people exchanging goods and services agree to assign it a value as a means of exchange.   The day people decide it's worthless, it's worthless.

Sure, and that sort of useless reduction isn't helpful at all, beyond "Oh, look how cynical I am, I don't believe in anything!" signaling.

Bitcoins are not commodities. Commodities are fungible economic goods, i.e. scarce raw materials. Bitcoin are not economic goods. They are not raw materials for anything.

They're not raw materials for anything (beyond low frictional transfer of value without government meddling, which apparently has some value to it), but otherwise behave closer to a commodity than anything else.

I mean, 8 pages or whatever in, obviously you're not going to change your opinion or post anything of value beyond short snippets about how silly it is, and how you think other people ought not be involved in it, changing absolutely nobody's mind in the process.

celerystalks

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #285 on: February 06, 2021, 06:19:41 PM »
Money isn't real.   It's a medium of exchange of goods and services.

{Bitcoin, The US Dollar, Gold} has no inherent value, unless people exchanging goods and services agree to assign it a value as a means of exchange.   The day people decide it's worthless, it's worthless.

Sure, and that sort of useless reduction isn't helpful at all, beyond "Oh, look how cynical I am, I don't believe in anything!" signaling.

Bitcoins are not commodities. Commodities are fungible economic goods, i.e. scarce raw materials. Bitcoin are not economic goods. They are not raw materials for anything.

They're not raw materials for anything (beyond low frictional transfer of value without government meddling, which apparently has some value to it), but otherwise behave closer to a commodity than anything else.

I mean, 8 pages or whatever in, obviously you're not going to change your opinion or post anything of value beyond short snippets about how silly it is, and how you think other people ought not be involved in it, changing absolutely nobody's mind in the process.

Why should I change my mind? No one has provided sufficient answers to my questions.. and they won’t by the way because they point to fatal flaws in Bitcoin and cryptos.

Also the title of this thread indicates that it is against Bitcoin. So I am just staying on topic. Trying to set people straight when I can. But the Bitcoin proponents get really angry when they are proven wrong. Sigh.

onecoolcat

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #286 on: February 06, 2021, 06:22:57 PM »

Painters Brush

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #287 on: February 07, 2021, 10:36:25 AM »

Um.  What, exactly, are you using to determine what is or isn't a fiat currency?

Bitcoin most definitely isn't.  Synthetic commodity, yes.  Synthetic commodity currency, matter of opinion that has been several pages of this thread.  But it's most assuredly not a fiat currency by any reasonable definition.

Investopedia:
Fiat money is government-issued currency that is not backed by a physical commodity, such as gold or silver, but rather by the government that issued it. The value of fiat money is derived from the relationship between supply and demand and the stability of the issuing government, rather than the worth of a commodity backing it as is the case for commodity money.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #288 on: February 07, 2021, 11:21:21 AM »

Um.  What, exactly, are you using to determine what is or isn't a fiat currency?

Bitcoin most definitely isn't.  Synthetic commodity, yes.  Synthetic commodity currency, matter of opinion that has been several pages of this thread.  But it's most assuredly not a fiat currency by any reasonable definition.

Investopedia:
Fiat money is government-issued currency that is not backed by a physical commodity, such as gold or silver, but rather by the government that issued it. The value of fiat money is derived from the relationship between supply and demand and the stability of the issuing government, rather than the worth of a commodity backing it as is the case for commodity money.

And non-fiat money is government issued currency that is backed by a physical commodity, such as gold or silver. The value of non-fiat money is derived from the relationship between supply and demand of the physical commodity and the stability of the issuing government. Question: Does anyone have any current examples of non-fiat money? Do any economies of any size still base their currency on gold or silver? If they do, how has that worked out?


Syonyk

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #289 on: February 07, 2021, 02:20:07 PM »
Investopedia:
Fiat money is government-issued currency that is not backed by a physical commodity, such as gold or silver...

I rest my point.

lifeanon269

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #290 on: February 08, 2021, 06:08:22 AM »
Tesla announced in an SEC filing that they've acquired $1.5 billion in bitcoin and will also soon begin accepting bitcoin as a form of payment for their products.

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459021004599/tsla-10k_20201231.htm


...but I'm sure bitcoin is just a fad even though there are hundreds of companies adding it to their balance sheets and some of the biggest hedge funds acquiring it.

celerystalks

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #291 on: February 08, 2021, 06:19:51 AM »
Tesla announced in an SEC filing that they've acquired $1.5 billion in bitcoin and will also soon begin accepting bitcoin as a form of payment for their products.

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459021004599/tsla-10k_20201231.htm


...but I'm sure bitcoin is just a fad even though there are hundreds of companies adding it to their balance sheets and some of the biggest hedge funds acquiring it.

This is a Nothingburger.

Tesla is one of the most overhyped stocks on the market. Their vast retail investor base doesn’t care about business fundamentals. They want a good narrative. Buying into Bitcoin provides that.

With Apple entering the market with a self driving EV and Will Ferrell advertising GM’s EV during the Super Bowl, we may quickly see that this maneuver is Tesla’s jump-the-shark moment.


Juan Ponce de León

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #292 on: February 08, 2021, 07:08:41 AM »
Phenomenal news for bitcoin.  Elon Musk most influential businessman in the world.  Nocoiners in an absolute shambles right now.

tarheeldan

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #293 on: February 08, 2021, 09:22:58 AM »
I love Elon but on some things I really don't agree with him.  I know he wanted to disrupt banking with X.com back in the day, and this BTC buy goes along with that,  but such a volatile asset isn't the way, it's an uphill adoption battle

I'm more interested in Diem, formerly Libra. Facebook is looking bad in the media, so that hurts,  but they still have a massive userbase. (FB, Instagram, Whatsapp). It's dollar-pegged, not to a global currency basket like Libra, which sucks but better than stupid volatile

firemane

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #294 on: February 08, 2021, 10:50:42 AM »
It's amazing that the most vocal experts on bitcoin are always the people who don't own any and don't actually know anything about how it works.

I have been messing with crypto a little bit since 2016ish so I’m not totally against it, but this argument never makes sense to me.

Anytime someone says something about Bitcoin they get brigades with kids saying “you just don’t understand!!!.” Its just p2p networking with asymmetric encryption and no type of escrow to prevent fraud. What is there to “understand!!!”

firemane

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #295 on: February 08, 2021, 11:16:22 AM »
Tesla announced in an SEC filing that they've acquired $1.5 billion in bitcoin and will also soon begin accepting bitcoin as a form of payment for their products.

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459021004599/tsla-10k_20201231.htm


...but I'm sure bitcoin is just a fad even though there are hundreds of companies adding it to their balance sheets and some of the biggest hedge funds acquiring it.

This is a Nothingburger.

Tesla is one of the most overhyped stocks on the market. Their vast retail investor base doesn’t care about business fundamentals. They want a good narrative. Buying into Bitcoin provides that.

With Apple entering the market with a self driving EV and Will Ferrell advertising GM’s EV during the Super Bowl, we may quickly see that this maneuver is Tesla’s jump-the-shark moment.

I don’t own any tsla unfortunately but I don’t think “bro” investing is going away anytime soon. It’s kind of scary to me that p/e’s aren’t rly a thing anymore, but at the same time perhaps it could be a good thing long term as more people are interested in throwing money into the market


Edit: I wonder if any older mustachians had said something similar to exactly what I just said in the dotcom bubble
« Last Edit: February 08, 2021, 11:20:44 AM by firemane »

ChpBstrd

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #296 on: February 08, 2021, 11:52:40 AM »
Edit: I wonder if any older mustachians had said something similar to exactly what I just said in the dotcom bubble

The dotcom bubble was much worse because nobody had ever seen anything like it. As it dragged on year after year, it made a lot of people question their sanity. A steady stream of retail investors were capitulating and buying into it, and they looked good to their friends for a year or two. It was torture to watch them and NOT be in yahoo or IBM. The financial advisors people relied on back then capitulated too, and tried to prove their worth by getting people in on tech IPOs. Nobody knew what would happen next, and that was the big difference.

firemane

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #297 on: February 08, 2021, 01:42:33 PM »
Edit: I wonder if any older mustachians had said something similar to exactly what I just said in the dotcom bubble

The dotcom bubble was much worse because nobody had ever seen anything like it. As it dragged on year after year, it made a lot of people question their sanity. A steady stream of retail investors were capitulating and buying into it, and they looked good to their friends for a year or two. It was torture to watch them and NOT be in yahoo or IBM. The financial advisors people relied on back then capitulated too, and tried to prove their worth by getting people in on tech IPOs. Nobody knew what would happen next, and that was the big difference.

Thanks for the insight. I can see how that would be nerve wracking

HPstache

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #298 on: February 08, 2021, 10:59:26 PM »
Props to BTC , approaching 50k.  Suddenly the insane calls for the $100k in 5 years are looking much better than the down to $1 calls.  I feel like crap for getting out early...

Northman

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Re: Bitcoin is funny money
« Reply #299 on: February 09, 2021, 05:07:08 AM »
Tesla announced in an SEC filing that they've acquired $1.5 billion in bitcoin and will also soon begin accepting bitcoin as a form of payment for their products.

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459021004599/tsla-10k_20201231.htm


...but I'm sure bitcoin is just a fad even though there are hundreds of companies adding it to their balance sheets and some of the biggest hedge funds acquiring it.

Well I guess we should all buy into BTC now because Elon said so. Maybe buy some Dogecoin as well.

No matter how many companies add BTC to their sheets, BTC's fundamental is just its price... in USD. And it's unsustainable unfortunately. Maybe the price increase drags on for a while on "good news", but at some point there will be a big selloff in the -90% numbers. People want profit before it's to late... in USD, not bitcoin. Investors (fans) optimism turns into pessimism and suddenly the future of bitcoin looks dark.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!