Author Topic: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President  (Read 125725 times)

reeshau

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1200 on: March 18, 2024, 06:47:37 PM »
Only the best people...

Can anyone give me the short version of the NYCB reference?

NY Community Bank, a regional bank in a lot of distress. It reported substantially higher than expected losses in its commercial portfolio.

It has a very high concentration of NYC real estate: rent-controlled apartment buildings, and Manhattan office tower mortgages.

sonofsven

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1201 on: March 18, 2024, 07:15:32 PM »
Isn't Trump just delaying until his hoped for windfall comes in from Digital World Acquisition Company?
I wouldn't trust him or his law team to tell the truth about anything.

reeshau

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1202 on: March 18, 2024, 07:23:35 PM »
He's waiting until he is elected, then he can pardon himself on all fronts.

And those who disagree...can sue him.

And it won't ever not happen, because he can't fathom losing.  He never has.  Just ask him.

Is narcissism officially an addiction?  Like, you are addicted to yourself?  The spiral of disconnecting with reality seems to be the same.  The crash on this one is going to be hard.

Dancin'Dog

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1203 on: March 18, 2024, 08:15:11 PM »
Too bad the court can't place him in jail until the funds are received.  (And charge $1,000 per cheeseburger while he's there!)

bacchi

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1204 on: March 18, 2024, 09:32:45 PM »
Is narcissism officially an addiction?  Like, you are addicted to yourself?  The spiral of disconnecting with reality seems to be the same.  The crash on this one is going to be hard.

Have you seen the Key and Peele skit where the two con artists meet each other near an ATM? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgyU0LyWZ9M

Trump met Musk recently, probably to ask for money for his campaign or his appeal. There's definitely a skit waiting there.

GuitarStv

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1205 on: March 19, 2024, 08:02:17 AM »
He's waiting until he is elected, then he can pardon himself on all fronts.

And those who disagree...can sue him.

And it won't ever not happen, because he can't fathom losing.  He never has.  Just ask him.

Yes, this.  Trump will pardon himself on all fronts.  And since a sitting president is above the law, he can then have any dissenting political opponents executed.  After all, his legal team has argued in court that this is perfectly fine - https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-lawyer-argues-president-order-assassinations-immunity-1234942963/.

Psychstache

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1206 on: March 19, 2024, 08:58:59 AM »
Trump Spurned by 30 Companies as He Seeks Bond in $454 Million Judgment (NY Times, unlocked article)

Quote
Donald J. Trump’s lawyers said in a court filing that he faces “insurmountable difficulties” as he tries to raise cash for the civil fraud penalty he faces in New York.

Imagine that. Perhaps he should have paid his creditors, not declared bankruptcy 4 times, and not committed tax fraud.
… but… but… but…!!  In the 2016 election he claimed he was worth in excess of TEN BILLION DOLLARS!
I’m beginning to think he might not be as wealthy as he claims.


Makes it sound like he’s worth around 400-700MM at most if he can’t cover it. I assumed he may have been worth maybe 2B at one point, but that was obviously too much as well. Hes fooled too many people into thinking he’s worth multiples more than he really is.

He could be cash poor and house rich. In other words, there's enough cash flow to pay his bills and to pay his expenses but not enough to cover anything else. If this is true, he's really cutting it close because he had to take a ~90M loan for the EJC lawsuit (unless he's planning to stiff the bank if he loses that case on appeal).

I guess the state will begin taking assets and, if he wins on appeal, he can get the money back?

Except his lawyers are claiming that he cannot find someone who will issue him a bond even with physical assets as collateral. If that’s indeed the case even his properties cannot secure the loan.

I remember reading an article years and years ago (like pre-2015) that was interviewing 4 different wealthy individuals to talk about their lives. They were all from different age cohorts and became wealthy in different ways and they were asked their opinions about the economy, how to succeed, etc.

One of the profiles was of this wealthy older gentlemen who had built a business of storage units over many years. He was very private about his wealth and told an anecdote about being annoyed about appearing on the Forbes list of richest Americans. He called to ask them to take him off the list. Their response: "Weird. No one ever contacts us to come off the list. Donald Trump calls us every year and complains he is too low on the list".

former player

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1207 on: March 19, 2024, 09:09:41 AM »
Trump can't pardon himself on a State conviction, which is what happened in New York, only a Federal one.  He's got no way out of his NY conviction.  (He could still challenge the amount, but as I understand it only if he puts up the full amount or a bond for it first.)

Someone very rich might be happy to buy whatever interest he still has in Trump tower purely for the pleasure of changing the name on it.....

GuitarStv

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1208 on: March 19, 2024, 09:24:06 AM »
Trump can't pardon himself on a State conviction, which is what happened in New York, only a Federal one.  He's got no way out of his NY conviction.  (He could still challenge the amount, but as I understand it only if he puts up the full amount or a bond for it first.)

Someone very rich might be happy to buy whatever interest he still has in Trump tower purely for the pleasure of changing the name on it.....

According to Trump's legal team he can have anyone who attempts to enforce the law on him while president executed.  That is one way out of his NY conviction.

former player

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1209 on: March 19, 2024, 09:34:15 AM »
Trump can't pardon himself on a State conviction, which is what happened in New York, only a Federal one.  He's got no way out of his NY conviction.  (He could still challenge the amount, but as I understand it only if he puts up the full amount or a bond for it first.)

Someone very rich might be happy to buy whatever interest he still has in Trump tower purely for the pleasure of changing the name on it.....

According to Trump's legal team he can have anyone who attempts to enforce the law on him while president executed.  That is one way out of his NY conviction.
Christ.  What has happened to democracy in the USA?

reeshau

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1210 on: March 19, 2024, 09:49:41 AM »
Trump can't pardon himself on a State conviction, which is what happened in New York, only a Federal one.  He's got no way out of his NY conviction.  (He could still challenge the amount, but as I understand it only if he puts up the full amount or a bond for it first.)

Someone very rich might be happy to buy whatever interest he still has in Trump tower purely for the pleasure of changing the name on it.....

Of course he can't, legally.  He also can't name his own alternate Electoral College delegates.  But he can try.  And he can tie up courts to delay and waste opponents resources.  The current cases he is involved with are from 2020 or earlier.  If he gets a reason to begin new cases, then the clock just starts again.

Just Joe

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1211 on: March 19, 2024, 11:18:45 AM »
Only the best people...

Can anyone give me the short version of the NYCB reference?

NY Community Bank, a regional bank in a lot of distress. It reported substantially higher than expected losses in its commercial portfolio.

Thank you!

Dee18

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1212 on: March 19, 2024, 11:34:51 AM »
Just to be clear, Trump does not have a conviction in NY. He has two recent civil judgments against him:

1.  In May 2023, a NY state jury concluded that Trump had sexually assaulted and defamed Carroll, and awarded her $5 million. A second defamation case brought by Carroll produced an $83.3 million judgment in January 2024.

2.  On February 16  NY State Justice Engoron ruled on February 16 that Trump must pay $355 million plus interest for committing fraud.

It's a little confusing because both sexual assault and fraud can be the basis for civil or criminal liability. If it's a criminal case it is brought by a prosecutor and the defendant's guilt must be proved beyond a reasonable doubt.  A civil case can be brought by an individual who has been harmed or by a government entity like the NY Attorney General's office and most civil cases must be proved by a simple preponderance of the evidence.  (Some civil cases have a statutorily imposed higher burden such as clear and convincing, but not beyond a reasonable doubt.)

Criminal convictions can be pardoned (but rarely are).  Civil judgments cannot be pardoned.

reeshau

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1213 on: March 19, 2024, 06:44:30 PM »
Criminal convictions can be pardoned (but rarely are).  Civil judgments cannot be pardoned.

Again, logic.  Just like all the other legal shenanigans that you can't do.  But you can burn up years getting to the nitty gritty of that.  It may cost some lawyers their licenses, but that's collateral damage nothing.

He's 77.  Delay is the point.

LaineyAZ

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1214 on: March 20, 2024, 08:31:22 AM »
MAGA:  My Assets Got Auctioned

reeshau

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1215 on: March 21, 2024, 06:15:33 AM »
WSJ headline:  "Trump Is in Line for a $3.5 Billion Windfall From Stake in Truth Social"

They vote Friday.  Another asset he won't risk in the battle going on in New York.

sixwings

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1216 on: March 21, 2024, 08:39:21 AM »
WSJ headline:  "Trump Is in Line for a $3.5 Billion Windfall From Stake in Truth Social"

They vote Friday.  Another asset he won't risk in the battle going on in New York.

I think the truth social thing is overblown. Trumps not going to walk away with 3.5B. Truth Social only has value because Donald Trump is holding it, the moment he starts to sell a singe share the stock price goes to 0. On top of that the technology is shit, the userbase is very low, it's all based around Trumps personality. There will also probably be a 6 month window where he can't sell any shares and I would expect that the stock price plummets during that time as well. It's a last grasp at a grift from a moron who doesn't understand how technology companies work. Like Devin Nunes is the CEO lol. The company and the tech is a complete shitshow and worth nothing and it won't take anyone long to figure that out, and MAGA will be left holding the bag as usual.

bacchi

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1217 on: March 21, 2024, 11:22:42 AM »
WSJ headline:  "Trump Is in Line for a $3.5 Billion Windfall From Stake in Truth Social"

They vote Friday.  Another asset he won't risk in the battle going on in New York.

I think the truth social thing is overblown. Trumps not going to walk away with 3.5B. Truth Social only has value because Donald Trump is holding it, the moment he starts to sell a singe share the stock price goes to 0. On top of that the technology is shit, the userbase is very low, it's all based around Trumps personality. There will also probably be a 6 month window where he can't sell any shares and I would expect that the stock price plummets during that time as well. It's a last grasp at a grift from a moron who doesn't understand how technology companies work. Like Devin Nunes is the CEO lol. The company and the tech is a complete shitshow and worth nothing and it won't take anyone long to figure that out, and MAGA will be left holding the bag as usual.

DWAC has a market cap of $1.5B. DJT doesn't own all of the shares so I'm not sure how he could get $3.5B from even a market cap of $3B (2x where the DWAC shares are currently). Unless I'm misunderstanding how SPACs work. DJT is also suing its biggest investor, Arc, to force it to vote for the merger because there's a dispute about ownership percentages.

If everything does goes well, then DJT could make over $1B from his shares. He's also asking for MAGA donations to "save Trump Tower".

reeshau

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1218 on: March 21, 2024, 12:36:56 PM »
WSJ headline:  "Trump Is in Line for a $3.5 Billion Windfall From Stake in Truth Social"

They vote Friday.  Another asset he won't risk in the battle going on in New York.

I think the truth social thing is overblown. Trumps not going to walk away with 3.5B. Truth Social only has value because Donald Trump is holding it, the moment he starts to sell a singe share the stock price goes to 0. On top of that the technology is shit, the userbase is very low, it's all based around Trumps personality. There will also probably be a 6 month window where he can't sell any shares and I would expect that the stock price plummets during that time as well. It's a last grasp at a grift from a moron who doesn't understand how technology companies work. Like Devin Nunes is the CEO lol. The company and the tech is a complete shitshow and worth nothing and it won't take anyone long to figure that out, and MAGA will be left holding the bag as usual.

DWAC has a market cap of $1.5B. DJT doesn't own all of the shares so I'm not sure how he could get $3.5B from even a market cap of $3B (2x where the DWAC shares are currently). Unless I'm misunderstanding how SPACs work. DJT is also suing its biggest investor, Arc, to force it to vote for the merger because there's a dispute about ownership percentages.

If everything does goes well, then DJT could make over $1B from his shares. He's also asking for MAGA donations to "save Trump Tower".

From the article:

"Trump can thank his supporters, who have driven up the value of publicly traded Digital World Acquisition, [US:DWAC] implying a valuation of roughly $6 billion for Truth Social. 

The buying has pushed up shares of the SPAC so high that if the deal gets done, Truth Social would be worth around $6 billion. Trump would own roughly 60% of the company after the deal gets done, making his shares worth several billion dollars.  

“It defies rational explanation in some sense unless you think about partisan motives and small investor enthusiasm,” said Eric Hilt, a professor of economics at Wellesley College who researches the history of businesses and markets."

To @sixwings point: bag holders.

sixwings

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1219 on: March 21, 2024, 01:53:45 PM »
The thing with it is that if it does go public, anyone with shares that has an IQ higher than a shoe size will sell and the price will plummet. The actual product is complete garbage with very little usage or following and any knowledgeable investor would recognize this and sell at the inflated prices. If DJT starts to sell his shares the second he sells his first share it will be a complete fire sale and the price will go to 0. He wouldn't actually be able to offload his shares at these prices. It's also likely he won't be able to sell for a while after the merger and during that time the price will probably also tank. The only people who wont sell will be the MAGA true believers and they will get stuck holding the bag.

bacchi

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1220 on: March 21, 2024, 02:33:51 PM »
From the article:

"Trump can thank his supporters, who have driven up the value of publicly traded Digital World Acquisition, [US:DWAC] implying a valuation of roughly $6 billion for Truth Social.

The buying has pushed up shares of the SPAC so high that if the deal gets done, Truth Social would be worth around $6 billion. Trump would own roughly 60% of the company after the deal gets done, making his shares worth several billion dollars. 

“It defies rational explanation in some sense unless you think about partisan motives and small investor enthusiasm,” said Eric Hilt, a professor of economics at Wellesley College who researches the history of businesses and markets."

To @sixwings point: bag holders.

Ok, I found a few ways to find the market cap of a SPAC merger. One is,

market cap of SPAC / %of SPAC ownership

If DWAC owns roughly 27% of Truth Social, then a market cap of ~$6B shakes out.

The thing with it is that if it does go public, anyone with shares that has an IQ higher than a shoe size will sell and the price will plummet. The actual product is complete garbage with very little usage or following and any knowledgeable investor would recognize this and sell at the inflated prices. If DJT starts to sell his shares the second he sells his first share it will be a complete fire sale and the price will go to 0. He wouldn't actually be able to offload his shares at these prices. It's also likely he won't be able to sell for a while after the merger and during that time the price will probably also tank. The only people who wont sell will be the MAGA true believers and they will get stuck holding the bag.

He only needs to slowly sell a couple million dollars of shares each week. Meanwhile, he can continually exhort his followers to buy more shares with each paycheck. Granted, he may not have the patience to do that.

reeshau

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1221 on: March 21, 2024, 02:58:25 PM »
Now I'm really down the rabbit hole on this; looking at the Amended S-4 formthe deal, here are the lockup terms:

   
"Following the Business Combination, shares of capital stock received by TMTG stockholders in connection with the Business Combination will be subject to a lock-up whereby, subject to certain limited exceptions, the shares cannot be transferred until the earliest of (i) the date that is six months after the Closing, (ii) the date on which the closing stock price for New Digital World common stock equals or exceeds $12.00 per share for any 20 trading days within any 30-trading day period commencing at least 150 days after the Closing, and (iii) the date after Closing on which New Digital World completes a liquidation, merger, share exchange, reorganization or other similar transaction that results in all of the New Digital World stockholders having the right to exchange their shares of New Digital World common stock for cash, securities or other property.


These lock-up restrictions will exclude shares of New Digital World common stock issued to holders of TMTG common stock, which were issued by TMTG prior to the Closing in exchange for their TMTG Convertible Notes."

Note the exception for Convertible note holders.  It does not appear that's the source of Trump's shares, though.

reeshau

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1222 on: March 22, 2024, 05:35:14 AM »
This is how the WSJ describes the lockup:

"...the parent company of Trump’s social-media company—Truth Social—could become publicly traded under the stock ticker DJT. Because of his ownership stake, this could essentially double his estimated net worth. But he can’t sell the shares or borrow against them for six months unless he gets a waiver from the shell company taking Truth Social public."

Seems like a pretty large loophole.  In the S-4 filing, the company disclaims that it is a controlled entity, exempting it from a minimum requirement of independent directors and disclosures.

If you aren't required to have independent directors, how hard will it be to get a waiver?

bacchi

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1223 on: March 22, 2024, 07:26:36 AM »
If you aren't required to have independent directors, how hard will it be to get a waiver?

Politico states that even with a waiver, he'll only be able to sell a percent each quarter. That'll cover his lawyer bills (currently at $5M/month) but not the appeal bond (if selling 1% of 116M outstanding shares at ~$45/share).

Quote from: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/22/trump-truth-social-money-financial-troubles-00148456
Trump could try to obtain a waiver from that rule, but even then he wouldn’t be able to sell more than a small fraction of his stake at any given time — up to 1 percent of the outstanding shares every quarter.

Truth Social lost $26M in Q3 and might receive $300M from the deal. That gives it a 3 year timeline. He can slowly sell his shares to make a few hundred million over that timeframe.

Psychstache

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1224 on: March 22, 2024, 08:12:25 AM »
If you aren't required to have independent directors, how hard will it be to get a waiver?

Politico states that even with a waiver, he'll only be able to sell a percent each quarter. That'll cover his lawyer bills (currently at $5M/month) but not the appeal bond (if selling 1% of 116M outstanding shares at ~$45/share).

Quote from: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/22/trump-truth-social-money-financial-troubles-00148456
Trump could try to obtain a waiver from that rule, but even then he wouldn’t be able to sell more than a small fraction of his stake at any given time — up to 1 percent of the outstanding shares every quarter.

Truth Social lost $26M in Q3 and might receive $300M from the deal. That gives it a 3 year timeline. He can slowly sell his shares to make a few hundred million over that timeframe.

What if he just ignores that rule and sells/borrows against enough shares to cover the bond? We keep discussing this under a framework of following the rules, which just seems silly given who we are talking about.

bacchi

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1225 on: March 22, 2024, 08:39:10 AM »
If you aren't required to have independent directors, how hard will it be to get a waiver?

Politico states that even with a waiver, he'll only be able to sell a percent each quarter. That'll cover his lawyer bills (currently at $5M/month) but not the appeal bond (if selling 1% of 116M outstanding shares at ~$45/share).

Quote from: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/22/trump-truth-social-money-financial-troubles-00148456
Trump could try to obtain a waiver from that rule, but even then he wouldn’t be able to sell more than a small fraction of his stake at any given time — up to 1 percent of the outstanding shares every quarter.

Truth Social lost $26M in Q3 and might receive $300M from the deal. That gives it a 3 year timeline. He can slowly sell his shares to make a few hundred million over that timeframe.

What if he just ignores that rule and sells/borrows against enough shares to cover the bond? We keep discussing this under a framework of following the rules, which just seems silly given who we are talking about.

Good point. It'll mean another lawsuit from other investors (his frenemy, Arc?) or the SEC I guess. Hopefully, the SEC wouldn't do the usual: levy a fine of $10M for an illegal gain of $100M.

Would the NY court have to accept that bond if it's embroiled in a lawsuit? Would a surety company even issue a bond?

reeshau

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1226 on: March 22, 2024, 08:46:56 AM »
If you aren't required to have independent directors, how hard will it be to get a waiver?

Politico states that even with a waiver, he'll only be able to sell a percent each quarter. That'll cover his lawyer bills (currently at $5M/month) but not the appeal bond (if selling 1% of 116M outstanding shares at ~$45/share).

Quote from: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/22/trump-truth-social-money-financial-troubles-00148456
Trump could try to obtain a waiver from that rule, but even then he wouldn’t be able to sell more than a small fraction of his stake at any given time — up to 1 percent of the outstanding shares every quarter.

Truth Social lost $26M in Q3 and might receive $300M from the deal. That gives it a 3 year timeline. He can slowly sell his shares to make a few hundred million over that timeframe.

What if he just ignores that rule and sells/borrows against enough shares to cover the bond? We keep discussing this under a framework of following the rules, which just seems silly given who we are talking about.

Good point. It'll mean another lawsuit from other investors (his frenemy, Arc?) or the SEC I guess. Hopefully, the SEC wouldn't do the usual: levy a fine of $10M for an illegal gain of $100M.

Would the NY court have to accept that bond if it's embroiled in a lawsuit? Would a surety company even issue a bond?

CNBC was talking this morning about the possibility of him getting a margin loan based on the stock.  That bypasses the surety gap, if he could do it.  But given the shares are based on a SPAC with $3 million in total revenue, they were skeptical any broker would put up that much.  It would be a bet on whether he wins the election, and uses it as his primary communication channel, in order to attract advertising.

sixwings

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1227 on: March 22, 2024, 08:52:50 AM »
If you aren't required to have independent directors, how hard will it be to get a waiver?

Politico states that even with a waiver, he'll only be able to sell a percent each quarter. That'll cover his lawyer bills (currently at $5M/month) but not the appeal bond (if selling 1% of 116M outstanding shares at ~$45/share).

Quote from: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/22/trump-truth-social-money-financial-troubles-00148456
Trump could try to obtain a waiver from that rule, but even then he wouldn’t be able to sell more than a small fraction of his stake at any given time — up to 1 percent of the outstanding shares every quarter.

Truth Social lost $26M in Q3 and might receive $300M from the deal. That gives it a 3 year timeline. He can slowly sell his shares to make a few hundred million over that timeframe.

What if he just ignores that rule and sells/borrows against enough shares to cover the bond? We keep discussing this under a framework of following the rules, which just seems silly given who we are talking about.

I'm not sure, I think any intelligent lender will see that situation and the volatility associated with it and be really hesitant against using truth social share value as collateral. It's not going to stay at a 6 bill valuation for very long.

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1228 on: March 22, 2024, 09:13:16 AM »
If you aren't required to have independent directors, how hard will it be to get a waiver?

Politico states that even with a waiver, he'll only be able to sell a percent each quarter. That'll cover his lawyer bills (currently at $5M/month) but not the appeal bond (if selling 1% of 116M outstanding shares at ~$45/share).

Quote from: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/22/trump-truth-social-money-financial-troubles-00148456
Trump could try to obtain a waiver from that rule, but even then he wouldn’t be able to sell more than a small fraction of his stake at any given time — up to 1 percent of the outstanding shares every quarter.

Truth Social lost $26M in Q3 and might receive $300M from the deal. That gives it a 3 year timeline. He can slowly sell his shares to make a few hundred million over that timeframe.

What if he just ignores that rule and sells/borrows against enough shares to cover the bond? We keep discussing this under a framework of following the rules, which just seems silly given who we are talking about.

I'm not sure, I think any intelligent lender will see that situation and the volatility associated with it and be really hesitant against using truth social share value as collateral. It's not going to stay at a 6 bill valuation for very long.

I get that it's a financial lifeline for DJT when he seems to really need it, but it does have me wondering about the stability of its value.  If DJT sells his majority stake he also gets rid of the financial incentive to support the platform.  At the same time selling a huge chunk of the total shares will tank the valuation of a company that seems to be only barely treading water right now. And ultimately the money isn't going to Trump, but as a bond for the settlement from his civil judgement for fraud, and possibly for mounting legal fees. So Trump is just a pass-through.
Can Truth Social survive without its main shareholder? Will the judgements against him hold at its present level (with interest)? Will E. Jean Carroll file an additional suit for continued defamation (one that seems increasingly likely to be successful, given Trump's tendency to spout off at public rallies against better legal council)?

sixwings

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1229 on: March 22, 2024, 09:40:45 AM »
If you aren't required to have independent directors, how hard will it be to get a waiver?

Politico states that even with a waiver, he'll only be able to sell a percent each quarter. That'll cover his lawyer bills (currently at $5M/month) but not the appeal bond (if selling 1% of 116M outstanding shares at ~$45/share).

Quote from: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/22/trump-truth-social-money-financial-troubles-00148456
Trump could try to obtain a waiver from that rule, but even then he wouldn’t be able to sell more than a small fraction of his stake at any given time — up to 1 percent of the outstanding shares every quarter.

Truth Social lost $26M in Q3 and might receive $300M from the deal. That gives it a 3 year timeline. He can slowly sell his shares to make a few hundred million over that timeframe.

What if he just ignores that rule and sells/borrows against enough shares to cover the bond? We keep discussing this under a framework of following the rules, which just seems silly given who we are talking about.

I'm not sure, I think any intelligent lender will see that situation and the volatility associated with it and be really hesitant against using truth social share value as collateral. It's not going to stay at a 6 bill valuation for very long.

I get that it's a financial lifeline for DJT when he seems to really need it, but it does have me wondering about the stability of its value.  If DJT sells his majority stake he also gets rid of the financial incentive to support the platform.  At the same time selling a huge chunk of the total shares will tank the valuation of a company that seems to be only barely treading water right now. And ultimately the money isn't going to Trump, but as a bond for the settlement from his civil judgement for fraud, and possibly for mounting legal fees. So Trump is just a pass-through.
Can Truth Social survive without its main shareholder? Will the judgements against him hold at its present level (with interest)? Will E. Jean Carroll file an additional suit for continued defamation (one that seems increasingly likely to be successful, given Trump's tendency to spout off at public rallies against better legal council)?

TMTG isn't treading water, it's dead. It had 3M of revenue last year. The last quarter it had 1.1m in revenue and a loss of like 26M. The userbase is declining and it's CEO is renowned technology and start up expert Devin Nunes (this is sarcasm, Devin Nunes is a moron with no experience building social media/tech companies). It's dead with or without Trump. The only hope it has of having ANY relevance and maintaining any value is if Trump wins the presidency, holds on to the shares, and uses Truth Social as the official channel for POTUS communication, which would be absolutely bonkers and probably a massive security issue given how badly it's run. That's an incredibly tight path to have to walk and even then it probably still doesn't maintain relevance or build a stable user base. The second Trump even hints at selling shares whatever the share price is will go to 0. He is the only user who has any draw for that platform and he has to stay invested and must stay invested for there to be any value.

Right now DWAC is a meme stock where people are trying to sell shares to MAGA under the fool theory. DJT will be a short lived meme stock with a strock price completely driven by whether MAGA true believers will buy a stock at insane valuations with company fundamentals that they don't even try to understand based on the Trump brand. Like how long can that actually hold for?

I almost feel bad about how much MAGA gets scammed, between the NFTs, the auto-renewing donations, the donations to building a wall that got stolen and then the perpetrators pardoned for, donating for a billionaires legal defense of crimes, trump university, and now DJT/DWAC (and those are just off the top of my head there's probably many more scams), life must be hard for them. But then also, all the information is available for them to see that this is a scam and just not do it. Also it's not bad that they keep dumping into scams, it's less that gets dumped into Trump and republican actual campaigns. Trumps having to cancel events now because he doesn't have the money to do them. Critical thinking is important.

LennStar

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1230 on: March 22, 2024, 10:59:06 AM »
If the stock prices plummets and he sells, can he use that to nullify any tax from other income?
Like how so many companies have a sub company in Luxemburg where they pay exorbitant license fees to, so the mother company makes a tiny loss while the sub pays Luxemburg taxes on the profits.

bacchi

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1231 on: March 22, 2024, 04:17:46 PM »
If the stock prices plummets and he sells, can he use that to nullify any tax from other income?
Like how so many companies have a sub company in Luxemburg where they pay exorbitant license fees to, so the mother company makes a tiny loss while the sub pays Luxemburg taxes on the profits.

Unlikely. As a founder of Truth Social, he would've received founder's shares at a very low price.

Any gains would be partially nullified by his business lawyer fees (but not the court fines).

Mr. Green

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1232 on: March 22, 2024, 07:01:29 PM »
A $6 Billion valuation on <$5 million in annual revenue is nutty, even for speculators.

bacchi

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1233 on: March 23, 2024, 08:32:16 AM »
A $6 Billion valuation on <$5 million in annual revenue is nutty, even for speculators.

Don't think of it as an investment. Think of it as another way to support DJT, even if you've hit your campaign contribution maximum.

nereo

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1234 on: March 23, 2024, 10:53:53 AM »
A $6 Billion valuation on <$5 million in annual revenue is nutty, even for speculators.

Don't think of it as an investment. Think of it as another way to support DJT, even if you've hit your campaign contribution maximum.

I guess I just don’t understand “meme stocks” and how they can remain solvent over longer timescales. With buy/sell decisions completely divorced from financials, it’s like some weird gambling game. How is this legal under the SEC?  Further, how is setting up a corporation with the dominant shareholder is a political candidate not a giant loophole for campaign finance?  It seems like private entities could deliberately dump money into shares of ‘DJT’ just to pump the price.

reeshau

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1235 on: March 23, 2024, 11:23:44 AM »
Perhaps a more positive example of this setup is the Green Bay Packers, a public nonprofit corporation.  They compete in a billionaire's game, and when they need money they issue new shares, which fans buy without any expectation of dividends or being able to sell their shares.

https://www.packers.com/community/shareholders

Captain FIRE

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1236 on: March 23, 2024, 11:31:57 AM »
Perhaps a more positive example of this setup is the Green Bay Packers, a public nonprofit corporation.  They compete in a billionaire's game, and when they need money they issue new shares, which fans buy without any expectation of dividends or being able to sell their shares.

https://www.packers.com/community/shareholders

Hahaha. "One of the more remarkable business stories in American history, the team is kept viable by its shareholders — its unselfish fans." If you don't buy their useless shares, you are "selfish".

jinga nation

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1237 on: March 25, 2024, 11:52:20 AM »
I gotta admit, 45 is a genius at pulling rabbits from hat:

Quote
NEW YORK (AP) — A New York appeals court on Monday agreed to hold off collection of former President Donald Trump’s more than $454 million civil fraud judgment — if he puts up $175 million within 10 days.

If he does, it will stop the clock on collection and prevent the state from seizing the presumptive Republican presidential nominee’s assets while he appeals. The appeals court also reversed other aspects of a trial judge’s ruling that had barred Trump and sons Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., the family company’s executive vice presidents, from serving in corporate leadership for several years.

In all, the order was a significant victory for the ex-president as he defends the real estate empire that vaulted him into public life. The development came just before New York Attorney General Letitia James, a Democrat, was expected to initiate efforts to collect the judgment.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-civil-fraud-case-verdict-penalty-appeal-8447c48d0436083737204b13401438d2

partgypsy

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1238 on: March 25, 2024, 12:08:24 PM »
I gotta admit, 45 is a genius at pulling rabbits from hat:

Quote
NEW YORK (AP) — A New York appeals court on Monday agreed to hold off collection of former President Donald Trump’s more than $454 million civil fraud judgment — if he puts up $175 million within 10 days.

If he does, it will stop the clock on collection and prevent the state from seizing the presumptive Republican presidential nominee’s assets while he appeals. The appeals court also reversed other aspects of a trial judge’s ruling that had barred Trump and sons Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., the family company’s executive vice presidents, from serving in corporate leadership for several years.

In all, the order was a significant victory for the ex-president as he defends the real estate empire that vaulted him into public life. The development came just before New York Attorney General Letitia James, a Democrat, was expected to initiate efforts to collect the judgment.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-civil-fraud-case-verdict-penalty-appeal-8447c48d0436083737204b13401438d2
. Damn. I mean this guy is an absolute criminal, trying to dismantle our democracy, got hard and good, and he is STILL being handled w kid gloves. Does he still have mafia, hitman connections or something? I think like anyone else, either pony up the money, or deal w the consequences. I thought Americans were all for "personal responsibility". Except for billionaires who cry poor?
« Last Edit: March 25, 2024, 12:21:20 PM by partgypsy »

GuitarStv

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1239 on: March 25, 2024, 12:17:22 PM »
Do other people get to put up less than 40% of their bail amount and have the courts say 'meh, good enough'?

former player

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1240 on: March 25, 2024, 12:27:19 PM »
He's already put up $90 million for EJ Carroll, there's no certainty he can put up even another $175 million: his failure on the bigger sum should have a lot of financiers running fast in the other direction.

Boll weevil

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1241 on: March 25, 2024, 12:38:39 PM »
Do other people get to put up less than 40% of their bail amount and have the courts say 'meh, good enough'?

Sort of… normal people pay 10% for a bail bond to get out of jail, and there is that whole “no-bail” movement.

I also learned that Florida would only require $50million from Trump in the same situation.


bacchi

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1242 on: March 25, 2024, 12:57:09 PM »
That $175M is all that NY state will ever see, even if the decision stands.

Just Joe

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1243 on: March 25, 2024, 12:59:01 PM »
Way back when I was in the military, it was explained that excessive debt among other things made a person vulnerable to blackmail and thus not desirable in highly sensitive roles.

This guy seems like the poster child for that situation.

Even if he was an otherwise okay candidate for office I would not vote for him due to the debt.

bacchi

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1244 on: March 25, 2024, 01:05:44 PM »
Way back when I was in the military, it was explained that excessive debt among other things made a person vulnerable to blackmail and thus not desirable in highly sensitive roles.

This guy seems like the poster child for that situation.

Even if he was an otherwise okay candidate for office I would not vote for him due to the debt.

You don't believe that he has $500M in cash?

rocketpj

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1245 on: March 25, 2024, 05:42:59 PM »
Time for what should be a semi-regular reminder that people have been gunned down or strangled by law enforcement for such things as 'selling cigarettes' or shoplifting.  But this bozo defrauds hundreds of millions of dollars and gets a break?  And is able to delay and disrupt multiple serious criminal proceedings through weaponized lawyers?

The US Justice system is doing a great job of discrediting the US Justice system.

Psychstache

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1246 on: March 26, 2024, 08:46:52 AM »
Time for what should be a semi-regular reminder that people have been gunned down or strangled by law enforcement for such things as 'selling cigarettes' or shoplifting.  But this bozo defrauds hundreds of millions of dollars and gets a break?  And is able to delay and disrupt multiple serious criminal proceedings through weaponized lawyers?

The US Justice Legal system is doing a great job of discrediting the US Justice system.

Fixed.

If you take the view that we have a system that is primarily concerned with implementing law and (at best) secondarily providing justice, it makes more sense.

Just Joe

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1247 on: March 26, 2024, 09:53:32 AM »
Way back when I was in the military, it was explained that excessive debt among other things made a person vulnerable to blackmail and thus not desirable in highly sensitive roles.

This guy seems like the poster child for that situation.

Even if he was an otherwise okay candidate for office I would not vote for him due to the debt.

You don't believe that he has $500M in cash?

Oh surely he is a billionaire - right now. 

In other news, we're prepping for a holiday weekend visit with extended family. Expecting their politics leak into conversation. Oof!

Fru-Gal

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1248 on: March 26, 2024, 10:09:11 AM »
I am really appreciating the widespread disgust people are expressing with this reduction of the bond (not the penalty). I hope this cements a backlash against him by those previously on the fence or indifferent.

Too many grifters are taking the cynics for a ride by suggesting US democracy and the legal system are useless, therefore they should be replaced by fascism. (Example, there is literally a pundit going around suggesting we need a king.)
« Last Edit: March 26, 2024, 10:10:47 AM by Fru-Gal »

nereo

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #1249 on: March 26, 2024, 10:57:53 AM »
Man claims he has almost $500 million in cash, compares himself to Jesus.[/center]


White man in legal trouble compares himself to Nelson Mandela
« Last Edit: April 08, 2024, 05:18:31 AM by nereo »