What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation

[mistymoney]

Let me put if for you quite simply.  I believe bitcoin will always go on to make a greater ATH.  I believe in Bitcoin as a store of value, I don't believe there is ever going to be an ultimate 'top' for bitcoin because I believe the printed out of thin air fiat currencies we value it in will always devalue over time, this is what ultimately drives capital towards the harder asset which is Bitcoin, the only asset which humans cannot increase the supply of.  Let me say it again, there is no top for bitcoin because there is no bottom for fiat, fiat will always be printed into infinity.

Now, you can argue the timing of peoples investments all you like, yes the people who bought the last ATH are currently 'at loss', but the next ATH will come around and at that moment, nominally the amount of people 'at loss' at the next ATH will be zero.  Yes there will be another 'crash' at some stage, yes people will be at 'loss' for a year or two, but IMO the value of bitcoin will always eventually go up vs printed fiat currencies inflating away their value over time.  This is really all I have to say on the matter as all of this has been covered in the past I'm sure.

Sure, this is true; there's a limited supply of BTC. Just as there's a limited supply of gold, MTG cards, or used tissues signed by Tom Hanks.. But it doesn't follow that the value of those things will go up forever. They also need to have a utility, otherwise you're just paying for the novelty of owning something, which has a pretty limited market. And the ability, and experience, of using BTC to pay for things is, honestly, pretty shit. The uses cases where BTC is "better" than electronic or hard cash is very small, even less if you exclude criminal activity. Even if you can use BTC to pay at Newegg or whatever, there's almost never a good reason why you would if you also have $. And finally, not being able to use it to pay your taxes pretty much kills the cycle of use for a currency. Unless that changes you'll need dollars (or your local currency) at some point.

But yeah, go bet on the "fiat currency will collapse" theory, it's been going strong for decades already.

How is btc not a fiat currrency? Except for the part about being backed by a government, there are no physical assets such as gold or silver to support it. Is btc calling itself a physical commodity?

I'm not getting this....I thought fiat meant we are all going to pretend this has value to facilitate buy and sell stuff without bartering.....isn't btc the definition of we are all going to pretend....and there isn't even a government entity to back it up.

What am I missing?

[GuitarStv]

Let me put if for you quite simply.  I believe bitcoin will always go on to make a greater ATH.  I believe in Bitcoin as a store of value, I don't believe there is ever going to be an ultimate 'top' for bitcoin because I believe the printed out of thin air fiat currencies we value it in will always devalue over time, this is what ultimately drives capital towards the harder asset which is Bitcoin, the only asset which humans cannot increase the supply of.  Let me say it again, there is no top for bitcoin because there is no bottom for fiat, fiat will always be printed into infinity.

Now, you can argue the timing of peoples investments all you like, yes the people who bought the last ATH are currently 'at loss', but the next ATH will come around and at that moment, nominally the amount of people 'at loss' at the next ATH will be zero.  Yes there will be another 'crash' at some stage, yes people will be at 'loss' for a year or two, but IMO the value of bitcoin will always eventually go up vs printed fiat currencies inflating away their value over time.  This is really all I have to say on the matter as all of this has been covered in the past I'm sure.

Sure, this is true; there's a limited supply of BTC. Just as there's a limited supply of gold, MTG cards, or used tissues signed by Tom Hanks.. But it doesn't follow that the value of those things will go up forever. They also need to have a utility, otherwise you're just paying for the novelty of owning something, which has a pretty limited market. And the ability, and experience, of using BTC to pay for things is, honestly, pretty shit. The uses cases where BTC is "better" than electronic or hard cash is very small, even less if you exclude criminal activity. Even if you can use BTC to pay at Newegg or whatever, there's almost never a good reason why you would if you also have $. And finally, not being able to use it to pay your taxes pretty much kills the cycle of use for a currency. Unless that changes you'll need dollars (or your local currency) at some point.

But yeah, go bet on the "fiat currency will collapse" theory, it's been going strong for decades already.

How is btc not a fiat currrency? Except for the part about being backed by a government, there are no physical assets such as gold or silver to support it. Is btc calling itself a physical commodity?

I'm not getting this....I thought fiat meant we are all going to pretend this has value to facilitate buy and sell stuff without bartering.....isn't btc the definition of we are all going to pretend....and there isn't even a government entity to back it up.

What am I missing?

'fiat currency' is issued by a government by definition.  This is different from non-fiat currency (like the scrip that was issued by mining companies to keep employees dependent and destitute), or if I started making 'Steve Bucks'.

[Scandium]

Let me put if for you quite simply.  I believe bitcoin will always go on to make a greater ATH.  I believe in Bitcoin as a store of value, I don't believe there is ever going to be an ultimate 'top' for bitcoin because I believe the printed out of thin air fiat currencies we value it in will always devalue over time, this is what ultimately drives capital towards the harder asset which is Bitcoin, the only asset which humans cannot increase the supply of.  Let me say it again, there is no top for bitcoin because there is no bottom for fiat, fiat will always be printed into infinity.

Now, you can argue the timing of peoples investments all you like, yes the people who bought the last ATH are currently 'at loss', but the next ATH will come around and at that moment, nominally the amount of people 'at loss' at the next ATH will be zero.  Yes there will be another 'crash' at some stage, yes people will be at 'loss' for a year or two, but IMO the value of bitcoin will always eventually go up vs printed fiat currencies inflating away their value over time.  This is really all I have to say on the matter as all of this has been covered in the past I'm sure.

Sure, this is true; there's a limited supply of BTC. Just as there's a limited supply of gold, MTG cards, or used tissues signed by Tom Hanks.. But it doesn't follow that the value of those things will go up forever. They also need to have a utility, otherwise you're just paying for the novelty of owning something, which has a pretty limited market. And the ability, and experience, of using BTC to pay for things is, honestly, pretty shit. The uses cases where BTC is "better" than electronic or hard cash is very small, even less if you exclude criminal activity. Even if you can use BTC to pay at Newegg or whatever, there's almost never a good reason why you would if you also have $. And finally, not being able to use it to pay your taxes pretty much kills the cycle of use for a currency. Unless that changes you'll need dollars (or your local currency) at some point.

But yeah, go bet on the "fiat currency will collapse" theory, it's been going strong for decades already.

How is btc not a fiat currrency? Except for the part about being backed by a government, there are no physical assets such as gold or silver to support it. Is btc calling itself a physical commodity?

I'm not getting this....I thought fiat meant we are all going to pretend this has value to facilitate buy and sell stuff without bartering.....isn't btc the definition of we are all going to pretend....and there isn't even a government entity to back it up.

What am I missing?

yes I agree, but didn't even bother bring that up. BTC is pretty much the definition of fiat. It only has "value" (using that very loosely!) because everyone agree it does. Even though you can barely buy anything with it, nobody gets paid a salary in it, it can take hours to convert to dollars, and (except a handful) no government accepts it.

[maizefolk]

yes I agree, but didn't even bother bring that up. BTC is pretty much the definition of fiat. It only has "value" (using that very loosely!) because everyone agree it does. Even though you can barely buy anything with it, nobody gets paid a salary in it, it can take hours to convert to dollars, and (except a handful) no government accepts it.

Don't essentially all of those same arguments apply to gold though?

Gold has value only because a lot of people agree it does.
I don't know anywhere outside of an old western movie I could show up with a sack of gold dust and buy anything directly.
I don't know anyone who gets paid a salary in gold.
It can take days or weeks to covert gold to dollars.
Governments typically don't accept it as payment for taxes.

Now I'm not arguing people should be buying bitcoin or gold. But I don't think these particular set of features make bitcoin look any worse than gold, yet people treat gold as the opposite of fiat money.

Gold's main advantage over bitcoin is a longer track record of people continuing to agree it has value. 
Bitcoin's main advantage over gold is that self custody is a lot easier/cheaper, particularly if you move around a lot.

[LateStarter]

@Juan Ponce de León I genuinely wish you all the best. I don't care if BTC goes up or down since, on principle, I'm never gonna buy into it.

what principles specifically?

For me it's the principle that I shouldn't invest in things that don't have any good reason to increase in value.

And environmental reasons. BTC consumes an appalling amount of energy.

These are the big principles that make BTC a non-starter for me.

On a more practical level, crypto has issues similar to gold (which I also don't buy). I either have to self host, which means physically securing assets which can be risky. Or I have someone else host it for me, and the crypto industry doesn't exactly have a great record. So a bunch of risk and hassle for what? For me it doesn't solve any problems, only creates new ones.

Bitcoin does increase in value, whether or not you think it "doesn't have a good reason" doesn't matter, the market declares the value

"If you believe that Bitcoin offers no utility beyond serving as a ponzi scheme or a device for money laundering, then it would only be logical to conclude that consuming any amount of energy is wasteful. If you are one of the tens of millions of individuals worldwide using it as a tool to escape monetary repression, inflation, or capital controls, you most likely think that the energy is extremely well spent. Whether you feel Bitcoin has a valid claim on society’s resources boils down to how much value you think Bitcoin creates for society."

 https://hbr.org/2021/05/how-much-energy-does-bitcoin-actually-consume

If we're judging crypto's ability to help unbanked folks with an alternative way of sending or buying money, it seems like quite a failure thus far.

Only 12% of crypto users are unbanked (https://pro.morningconsult.com/analyst-reports/state-of-cryptocurrency) and the majority of them are heavy users of traditional banking.  Only 16% of crypto users say that they use it to send money or buy things, while 66% say that they use crypto “as a way to make money rather than send it”.

Eh ?

The fact (taken at face value) that more banked than unbanked hold crypto says absolutely nothing about "crypto's ability to help unbanked folks with an alternative way of sending or buying money".

[MustacheAndaHalf]

"Fiat money is a type of currency that is not backed by a commodity, such as gold or silver."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_money

"Yes, virtual currencies, such as Bitcoin, have been determined to be commodities under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA)"
[PDF] https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/2019-12/oceo_bitcoinbasics0218.pdf

[seattlecyclone]

Bitcoin's main advantage over gold is that self custody is a lot easier/cheaper, particularly if you move around a lot.

Is it though? A million dollars worth of gold weighs about 16 kg and occupies less than a liter of volume. Should be easy enough to secure that in any residence, and transporting it from one residence to another is also a fairly simple task.

Self-custody of Bitcoins is not significantly easier, at least if you don't want your coins to die with you. If you want to make sure that your heirs have access to your crypto wallet when you die, but not until then, you need to make sure the keys are written down somewhere, which comes with all the same physical security challenges inherent with storing a liter of gold.

[maizefolk]

All things being equal, I would rather fly -- whether domestically or internationally -- with a bitcoin seed phrase memorized than show up to the airport with a liter of gold in my carry on (although I agree, $1M of gold would still fit within the carry-on allowance). I'll acknowledge that may be a personal preference rather a universal one though.

A wallet key or a bunch of gold coins/bars in a bank safe deposit box or home safe are going to be about equally secure. Bitcoin also offers options like multi-signature setups that require 2 out of 3 keys in order to access the wallet. That lets your heirs lose any one of three written down keys without losing access to you bitcoins. And anyone who finds or steals one of three written down keys still wouldn't gain access to your bitcoin wallet. To me the latter seems more secure, but again that may be a personal preference rather than a universal truth.

[LateStarter]

Bitcoin and the crypto movement grew in part as a response to the 2008 banking and the associated problems with big institutional banking.   At first blush, the benefits seem large.  Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer, cashless transaction system.    You do not need a bank to hold your Bitcoin, which could be a huge benefit for the hundreds of millions if not billions of the unbanked.  It also makes it  more difficult for the government or other entity to seize your Bitcoin, and you do not need a third party to make transactions.  All the transactions are immutably recorded on the blockchain and cannot be falsified.   Transactions can be conducted across international borders with no additional expense.  Bitcoin cannot be debased or manipulated by any central bank or government. 

Sounds good, right?  But has it grown?   I mean, within say the last five to ten years?  Anecdotally, it doesn't seem that any more businesses accept Bitcoin than back then, and the number might even have gone down.  And of those businesses that you've heard of that do accept Bitcoin, all use a third-party servicer like Bitpay to facilitate the transactions.

That's your sole measure of growth ?

I'm not expecting to see widespread adoption of Bitcoin/Lightning for day-to-day transactions in developed nations for a while yet - there's no great urgency for it. I'd be pleased to see it but I'm losing zero sleep over it's absence - it's a non-issue.

If a business sees benefits in using Bitpay, so be it - it's a choice - it's up to them. It wouldn't affect me as a buyer using my own Bitcoin/Lightning wallet - I don't see the problem.

El Salvador treats Bitcoin as legal tender, but by all accounts actual adoption is extremely low.   Custody is facilitated by a government controlled app, which again means there is typically no self-custody and no trustless transactions.  Bitcoin ATMs typically have higher fees than regular ATMs.   Remittances via Bitcoin--which was a major selling point of El Salvador's plan--are a rounding error of the total and dropping.

Can't comment. I have no direct experience/info and most sources seem to be pretty biased one way or the other.

All of these exchange collapses (FTX, Celsius, Genesis/Gemini, etc.) show that the institutions that have grown up around crypto lacked internal controls to ensure client's interests are safeguarded.  Therefore, there is a lot of excitement in the crypto space about the likely SEC approval of Bitcoin ETFs.     This will allow Wall Street investment banks to hold Bitcoin, and let retail investors speculate on the price without having to deal with self-custody, yet get the assurance of government oversight and regulation.

Can you link to some evidence for this excitement among retail investors for using a Bitcoin ETF in preference to self-custodying Bitcoin ?

The ETFs haven't come about because of FTX, etc. The driver for ETFs is institutional investors (that can't access Bitcoin directly) wanting Bitcoin exposure via an accessible conventional instrument. The excitement (justified or otherwise) is based on the expectation that institutional money will come flooding into Bitcoin - albeit, indirectly.

So we've seen that Bitcoin specifically and crypto in general have grown into something that looks identical to the traditional banking and finance system.   Customer's assets are held in the institution's name, transactions take place off the blockchain and are regulated by the government.

Not so. Not at all.  An ETF is an ETF.  Bitcoin is still Bitcoin.

[deborah]

Last time I was at an airport they said that your carry on bags were limited to 7kg.

[seattlecyclone]

Last time I was at an airport they said that your carry on bags were limited to 7kg.

I have to say I've never flown on an airline that cared about the weight of your carry-on suitcase. Size, yes; weight, no. But in that case you could take your US$1 million of gold, put nearly half of it in your carry-on suitcase, stick the rest (~500 mL volume) in your backpack and/or pockets, no big deal. Are they going to weigh the clothes on your back too?

Regarding the possibility of splitting your Bitcoin key three ways and only requiring two, yeah I think that may be a personal preference. Would you rather fail in the direction of making your wealth disappear if your heirs forget the secrets or not? If two out of three kids can't remember their part of my safe combination they can still spend an afternoon drilling holes in the thing until they can get the gold out. If two out of three kids lose their part of my Bitcoin keys, tough luck, their inheritance just went up in smoke.

[LateStarter]

Let me put if for you quite simply.  I believe bitcoin will always go on to make a greater ATH.  I believe in Bitcoin as a store of value, I don't believe there is ever going to be an ultimate 'top' for bitcoin because I believe the printed out of thin air fiat currencies we value it in will always devalue over time, this is what ultimately drives capital towards the harder asset which is Bitcoin, the only asset which humans cannot increase the supply of.  Let me say it again, there is no top for bitcoin because there is no bottom for fiat, fiat will always be printed into infinity.

Now, you can argue the timing of peoples investments all you like, yes the people who bought the last ATH are currently 'at loss', but the next ATH will come around and at that moment, nominally the amount of people 'at loss' at the next ATH will be zero.  Yes there will be another 'crash' at some stage, yes people will be at 'loss' for a year or two, but IMO the value of bitcoin will always eventually go up vs printed fiat currencies inflating away their value over time.  This is really all I have to say on the matter as all of this has been covered in the past I'm sure.

Sure, this is true; there's a limited supply of BTC. Just as there's a limited supply of gold, MTG cards, or used tissues signed by Tom Hanks.. But it doesn't follow that the value of those things will go up forever. They also need to have a utility, otherwise you're just paying for the novelty of owning something, which has a pretty limited market.

Utility is in the eye of the beholder. Don't conflate "I see no utility" or "it has no utility for me" with "it has no utility".

Also, it might be instructive to review how the gold, MTG and TomHanksTissues markets behaved once ETFs and institutional money got involved. Oh, just gold then . . . so maybe those tired old 'novelty' comparisons should be retired.

And the ability, and experience, of using BTC to pay for things is, honestly, pretty shit. The uses cases where BTC is "better" than electronic or hard cash is very small, even less if you exclude criminal activity. Even if you can use BTC to pay at Newegg or whatever, there's almost never a good reason why you would if you also have $. And finally, not being able to use it to pay your taxes pretty much kills the cycle of use for a currency. Unless that changes you'll need dollars (or your local currency) at some point.

What's the trend ? Who invests based only on how things are today ?

And again again again . . . Few people are working on solving the virtually non-existent day-to-day transaction problems experienced by the average wealthy comfortable American. The fact that you can't use Bitcoin to buy your morning coffee or whatever is utterly irrelevant to almost all Bitcoiners. You're 'tilting at a windmill'.

But yeah, go bet on the "fiat currency will collapse" theory, it's been going strong for decades already.

That part of the bet is generally: fiat currency will collapse be continually debased. It's been going strong for decades already.

[GuitarStv]

Last time I was at an airport they said that your carry on bags were limited to 7kg.

I have to say I've never flown on an airline that cared about the weight of your carry-on suitcase. Size, yes; weight, no. But in that case you could take your US$1 million of gold, put nearly half of it in your carry-on suitcase, stick the rest (~500 mL volume) in your backpack and/or pockets, no big deal. Are they going to weigh the clothes on your back too?

Regarding the possibility of splitting your Bitcoin key three ways and only requiring two, yeah I think that may be a personal preference. Would you rather fail in the direction of making your wealth disappear if your heirs forget the secrets or not? If two out of three kids can't remember their part of my safe combination they can still spend an afternoon drilling holes in the thing until they can get the gold out. If two out of three kids lose their part of my Bitcoin keys, tough luck, their inheritance just went up in smoke.

Drill a hole in the bars and put them on a chain.  Then wear the chain around your neck.  I've never seen airlines care about jewelry weight.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Having looked it up... the largest gold bar is "400 troy ounces".  Two of them would fit side by side under a Macbook, lifting it 2 inches.  That 55 pounds of gold would be worth about $1.7 million, or slightly less than the cost of the Macbook.  ;)

Is the +38% jump in Bitcoin's price (in 1 month) entirely from expectations of a Bitcoin ETF?

[FINate]

Today I watched a Cornell panel discussion on proposed IRS 1099 reporting rules for crypto. I remember when it was believed crypto was out of reach of regulators. And now these crypto advocate panel members are calling this an existential crisis. The guy at 13:40 is particularly entertaining, as he complains about intermediaries and centralization being the antithesis of the movement. Clever algorithms in the virtual world are not outside the reach of governments, because we live an embodied life in the physical world. It's like when the nihilists in The Big Lebowski protest that it's not fair when their ransom scheme doesn't work out, lol.

[clifp]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

[FINate]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

It's not even good for that. The public blockchain combined with other digital fingerprints means it's way more traceable than cash. Here's an interesting interview about the myth of crypto anonymity: https://www.wired.com/story/gadget-lab-podcast-585/

[Stimpy]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

[FINate]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

[ChpBstrd]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

When such situations arose in the past, offshore accounts - often in another currency - have proven to be reliable ways for wealthy people to escape transitions to authoritarianism like in fascist/communist Europe, hyperinflating Argentina, the collapse of Venezuela, Russia's descent into authoritarianism, various wars in Africa, Syria, Iraq, etc. In this way, ending up penniless due to geopolitical changes would require the simultaneous collapse of two civilizations instead of just one's own. So again we are back to the question of what crypto can do that a fiat currency and traditional bank account cannot.

Arguably, an offshore bank offers refugees a better option than crypto because in addition to an online portal, one can show up at the teller's window in the foreign country, present ID, and obtain cash. Free access to crypto, OTOH, assumes the existence of internet connections which are not monitored by the government. In a place like China, Russia, India, or many others, logging into a crypto exchange essentially requires the permission and observation by the government agents running the great firewall. As such closed internets become more common, one's ability to use crypto to escape authoritarianism is reduced. In the exact scenario feared by people who worry about authoritarianism in the US, the internet would probably cease to be free - just as it is not free in vast swaths of the world. A future internet that is fragmented and monitored raises questions about the future function of crypto assets and how one would trade them.

Fiat currencies, meanwhile, have a relatively good record of being recognized even when authoritarian governments take over. Currencies like the Turkish lira, the Russian ruble, or the Egyptian pound outlasted democracy in those countries and were freely exchanged throughout the transition to authoritarian rule. Yes, they would go on to lose a lot of value, but they were nonetheless freely traded at times when governments were rounding up and torturing political prisoners. The exception is of course communism, in which bank assets were seized or obliterated. Even then, a Swiss bank account and current passport was usually the better answer compared to a treasure chest of gold and gems.

The core issue is this: A repressive government would have to smash its own economy and its own corrupt incentive structure if it eliminated the currency or closed off the economy. By keeping the economy the relatively open, they negate a key source of popular discontent. Authoritarian governments have no similar incentives to protect markets for cryptocurrencies.

[LateStarter]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

When such situations arose in the past, offshore accounts - often in another currency - have proven to be reliable ways for wealthy people to escape transitions to authoritarianism like in fascist/communist Europe, hyperinflating Argentina, the collapse of Venezuela, Russia's descent into authoritarianism, various wars in Africa, Syria, Iraq, etc. In this way, ending up penniless due to geopolitical changes would require the simultaneous collapse of two civilizations instead of just one's own. So again we are back to the question of what crypto can do that a fiat currency and traditional bank account cannot.

Arguably, an offshore bank offers refugees a better option than crypto because in addition to an online portal, one can show up at the teller's window in the foreign country, present ID, and obtain cash. Free access to crypto, OTOH, assumes the existence of internet connections which are not monitored by the government. In a place like China, Russia, India, or many others, logging into a crypto exchange essentially requires the permission and observation by the government agents running the great firewall. As such closed internets become more common, one's ability to use crypto to escape authoritarianism is reduced. In the exact scenario feared by people who worry about authoritarianism in the US, the internet would probably cease to be free - just as it is not free in vast swaths of the world. A future internet that is fragmented and monitored raises questions about the future function of crypto assets and how one would trade them.

Fiat currencies, meanwhile, have a relatively good record of being recognized even when authoritarian governments take over. Currencies like the Turkish lira, the Russian ruble, or the Egyptian pound outlasted democracy in those countries and were freely exchanged throughout the transition to authoritarian rule. Yes, they would go on to lose a lot of value, but they were nonetheless freely traded at times when governments were rounding up and torturing political prisoners. The exception is of course communism, in which bank assets were seized or obliterated. Even then, a Swiss bank account and current passport was usually the better answer compared to a treasure chest of gold and gems.

The core issue is this: A repressive government would have to smash its own economy and its own corrupt incentive structure if it eliminated the currency or closed off the economy. By keeping the economy the relatively open, they negate a key source of popular discontent. Authoritarian governments have no similar incentives to protect markets for cryptocurrencies.

So, in summary:
It's easier to escape authoritarianism today with an Offshore Bank Account than it would be in some imaginary dystopian future with Crypto.

That seems a rather pointless claim to make.

[FINate]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

[LateStarter]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

As I suggested, I haven't given this extreme scenario a whole lot of thought - this isn't a future I'm anticipating . . .

However . . . I can very effectively cover my existing Bitcoin on-chain tracks with mixing, etc. if I choose. Border control might strongly suspect I still have some Bitcoin but they can't know for sure. Also, there are ways to acquire Bitcoin with zero KYC, eg. peer-to-peer cash exchange, and if onerous controls are in place you can be sure that (black market) service will become widely available - supply will meet demand. Border Control won't know I own that Bitcoin. I think some Bitcoin stored in my head would be at least as effective as any other potential solution if the world goes completely to shit. If things get bad enough that mixed or zero-KYC Bitcoin don't help, I think all bets are off.

[ChpBstrd]

Or the government (any government really) could say that mixing or evading controls is prima facia evidence of money laundering, tax evasion, or other criminal intent. They could put a hold on your passport and say you can't leave the country until you account for that mixing transaction you did four or five years ago.

This scenario would make sense, as crime remains the only semi-functional use case for crypto and the US government is sweeping up records of crypto trades like they're personal emails or something.

[GuitarStv]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

As I suggested, I haven't given this extreme scenario a whole lot of thought - this isn't a future I'm anticipating . . .

However . . . I can very effectively cover my existing Bitcoin on-chain tracks with mixing, etc. if I choose. Border control might strongly suspect I still have some Bitcoin but they can't know for sure. Also, there are ways to acquire Bitcoin with zero KYC, eg. peer-to-peer cash exchange, and if onerous controls are in place you can be sure that (black market) service will become widely available - supply will meet demand. Border Control won't know I own that Bitcoin. I think some Bitcoin stored in my head would be at least as effective as any other potential solution if the world goes completely to shit. If things get bad enough that mixed or zero-KYC Bitcoin don't help, I think all bets are off.

A bitcoin private key is a 64 digit hex code . . . something like this:
E9873D79C6D87DC0FB6A5778633389F4453213303DA61F20BD67FC233AA3

I'd be willing to wager the the average person would have difficulty memorizing and recalling something like this under stress.

[LateStarter]

Or the government (any government really) could say that mixing or evading controls is prima facia evidence of money laundering, tax evasion, or other criminal intent. They could put a hold on your passport and say you can't leave the country until you account for that mixing transaction you did four or five years ago.

They could. Likewise with your Offshore Bank Account and the several kg of gold around your neck, etc.

This scenario would make sense, as crime remains the only semi-functional use case for crypto and the US government is sweeping up records of crypto trades like they're personal emails or something.

Why do you assume that any desire for monetary anonymity/privacy or freedom is synonymous with ill-intent ?

Do you feel the same about free speech ? After all, most of us probably don't say much that offends many - we don't really need it. The main beneficiaries of free speech are people that say objectionable things, so it's a bad thing - right ?

[LateStarter]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

As I suggested, I haven't given this extreme scenario a whole lot of thought - this isn't a future I'm anticipating . . .

However . . . I can very effectively cover my existing Bitcoin on-chain tracks with mixing, etc. if I choose. Border control might strongly suspect I still have some Bitcoin but they can't know for sure. Also, there are ways to acquire Bitcoin with zero KYC, eg. peer-to-peer cash exchange, and if onerous controls are in place you can be sure that (black market) service will become widely available - supply will meet demand. Border Control won't know I own that Bitcoin. I think some Bitcoin stored in my head would be at least as effective as any other potential solution if the world goes completely to shit. If things get bad enough that mixed or zero-KYC Bitcoin don't help, I think all bets are off.

A bitcoin private key is a 64 digit hex code . . . something like this:
E9873D79C6D87DC0FB6A5778633389F4453213303DA61F20BD67FC233AA3

I'd be willing to wager the the average person would have difficulty memorizing and recalling something like this under stress.

https://www.google.com/search?q=seed+phrase

[Stimpy]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

As I suggested, I haven't given this extreme scenario a whole lot of thought - this isn't a future I'm anticipating . . .

However . . . I can very effectively cover my existing Bitcoin on-chain tracks with mixing, etc. if I choose. Border control might strongly suspect I still have some Bitcoin but they can't know for sure. Also, there are ways to acquire Bitcoin with zero KYC, eg. peer-to-peer cash exchange, and if onerous controls are in place you can be sure that (black market) service will become widely available - supply will meet demand. Border Control won't know I own that Bitcoin. I think some Bitcoin stored in my head would be at least as effective as any other potential solution if the world goes completely to shit. If things get bad enough that mixed or zero-KYC Bitcoin don't help, I think all bets are off.

A bitcoin private key is a 64 digit hex code . . . something like this:
E9873D79C6D87DC0FB6A5778633389F4453213303DA61F20BD67FC233AA3

I'd be willing to wager the the average person would have difficulty memorizing and recalling something like this under stress.

https://www.google.com/search?q=seed+phrase

And 12, up to 24 random words would be easier to memorize under stress how?   I can say for a fact I am not under stress and it would take me some time to remember all of the word for one wallet.  And if you have multiple wallets.....  forget about it.

[GuitarStv]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

As I suggested, I haven't given this extreme scenario a whole lot of thought - this isn't a future I'm anticipating . . .

However . . . I can very effectively cover my existing Bitcoin on-chain tracks with mixing, etc. if I choose. Border control might strongly suspect I still have some Bitcoin but they can't know for sure. Also, there are ways to acquire Bitcoin with zero KYC, eg. peer-to-peer cash exchange, and if onerous controls are in place you can be sure that (black market) service will become widely available - supply will meet demand. Border Control won't know I own that Bitcoin. I think some Bitcoin stored in my head would be at least as effective as any other potential solution if the world goes completely to shit. If things get bad enough that mixed or zero-KYC Bitcoin don't help, I think all bets are off.

A bitcoin private key is a 64 digit hex code . . . something like this:
E9873D79C6D87DC0FB6A5778633389F4453213303DA61F20BD67FC233AA3

I'd be willing to wager the the average person would have difficulty memorizing and recalling something like this under stress.

https://www.google.com/search?q=seed+phrase

Having a computer generate a phrase for you is going to be better to remember . . . but doesn't really solve the problem.

hotel obvious agent lecture gadget evil jealous keen fragile before damp clarify

How many times a week do you check that your memory of this computer generated seed phrase is correct?  How many people will actually follow through on that well enough that it's available when they need it?

[FINate]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

As I suggested, I haven't given this extreme scenario a whole lot of thought - this isn't a future I'm anticipating . . .

However . . . I can very effectively cover my existing Bitcoin on-chain tracks with mixing, etc. if I choose. Border control might strongly suspect I still have some Bitcoin but they can't know for sure. Also, there are ways to acquire Bitcoin with zero KYC, eg. peer-to-peer cash exchange, and if onerous controls are in place you can be sure that (black market) service will become widely available - supply will meet demand. Border Control won't know I own that Bitcoin. I think some Bitcoin stored in my head would be at least as effective as any other potential solution if the world goes completely to shit. If things get bad enough that mixed or zero-KYC Bitcoin don't help, I think all bets are off.

It's already the case, in the US at least, that avoiding KYC is likely a violation of money laundering laws. Attempting to conceal the movement of larger amounts of money into/within cryto is a very bad idea.

Monero tries to maintain privacy on the blockchain by mixing, along with other strategies. It hasn't worked, and it's estimated that perhaps 90% of monero is traceable, which is increasing over time as tracers improve their algorithms.

I think it's probably fair to say that crypto, including privacy focused ones, are far more traceable than plain ol' cash.

And this is what's so ironic about the tech-libertarians: Their conviction is that technology will free us from the tyranny of governments, when in fact it has created the tools and infrastructure to enable state surveillance on a scale beyond what history has ever seen.

[LateStarter]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

As I suggested, I haven't given this extreme scenario a whole lot of thought - this isn't a future I'm anticipating . . .

However . . . I can very effectively cover my existing Bitcoin on-chain tracks with mixing, etc. if I choose. Border control might strongly suspect I still have some Bitcoin but they can't know for sure. Also, there are ways to acquire Bitcoin with zero KYC, eg. peer-to-peer cash exchange, and if onerous controls are in place you can be sure that (black market) service will become widely available - supply will meet demand. Border Control won't know I own that Bitcoin. I think some Bitcoin stored in my head would be at least as effective as any other potential solution if the world goes completely to shit. If things get bad enough that mixed or zero-KYC Bitcoin don't help, I think all bets are off.

A bitcoin private key is a 64 digit hex code . . . something like this:
E9873D79C6D87DC0FB6A5778633389F4453213303DA61F20BD67FC233AA3

I'd be willing to wager the the average person would have difficulty memorizing and recalling something like this under stress.

https://www.google.com/search?q=seed+phrase

And 12, up to 24 random words would be easier to memorize under stress how?   I can say for a fact I am not under stress and it would take me some time to remember all of the word for one wallet.  And if you have multiple wallets.....  forget about it.

You think remembering 12/24 random words is no easier than remembering 64 random hex characters ? That's plain ridiculous.

You probably don't need multiple wallets but it's still manageable. There's plenty of methods that can help you memorise random words, eg. make up a story including the words in the right sequence - make it bright, exaggerated, shocking, emotional, etc. to help it stick, etc.

And you'd only need to memorise it under stress if you acquired the wallet at the last minute. Any Bitcoiners prepping to flee authoritarianism are probably more organised than that.

[LateStarter]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

As I suggested, I haven't given this extreme scenario a whole lot of thought - this isn't a future I'm anticipating . . .

However . . . I can very effectively cover my existing Bitcoin on-chain tracks with mixing, etc. if I choose. Border control might strongly suspect I still have some Bitcoin but they can't know for sure. Also, there are ways to acquire Bitcoin with zero KYC, eg. peer-to-peer cash exchange, and if onerous controls are in place you can be sure that (black market) service will become widely available - supply will meet demand. Border Control won't know I own that Bitcoin. I think some Bitcoin stored in my head would be at least as effective as any other potential solution if the world goes completely to shit. If things get bad enough that mixed or zero-KYC Bitcoin don't help, I think all bets are off.

A bitcoin private key is a 64 digit hex code . . . something like this:
E9873D79C6D87DC0FB6A5778633389F4453213303DA61F20BD67FC233AA3

I'd be willing to wager the the average person would have difficulty memorizing and recalling something like this under stress.

https://www.google.com/search?q=seed+phrase

Having a computer generate a phrase for you is going to be better to remember . . . but doesn't really solve the problem.

hotel obvious agent lecture gadget evil jealous keen fragile before damp clarify

How many times a week do you check that your memory of this computer generated seed phrase is correct?  How many people will actually follow through on that well enough that it's available when they need it?

I have little problem remembering my DOB, NI Number, bank card PIN numbers, email addresses, phone numbers, multiple passwords, car reg, combination lock numbers, etc. and all sorts of random stuff. If I've got a decent sum locked away behind a seed-phrase, I'll make damned sure I remember it.

And, as above, any Bitcoiners that are prepping to 'flee authoritarianism' are probably well prepared.
In all but the most immediate and catastrophic scenarios, any Bitcoiner using cold storage could probably review their seed-phrase before destroying their record of it and heading for the border.

[LateStarter]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

As I suggested, I haven't given this extreme scenario a whole lot of thought - this isn't a future I'm anticipating . . .

However . . . I can very effectively cover my existing Bitcoin on-chain tracks with mixing, etc. if I choose. Border control might strongly suspect I still have some Bitcoin but they can't know for sure. Also, there are ways to acquire Bitcoin with zero KYC, eg. peer-to-peer cash exchange, and if onerous controls are in place you can be sure that (black market) service will become widely available - supply will meet demand. Border Control won't know I own that Bitcoin. I think some Bitcoin stored in my head would be at least as effective as any other potential solution if the world goes completely to shit. If things get bad enough that mixed or zero-KYC Bitcoin don't help, I think all bets are off.

It's already the case, in the US at least, that avoiding KYC is likely a violation of money laundering laws. Attempting to conceal the movement of larger amounts of money into/within cryto is a very bad idea.

Monero tries to maintain privacy on the blockchain by mixing, along with other strategies. It hasn't worked, and it's estimated that perhaps 90% of monero is traceable, which is increasing over time as tracers improve their algorithms.

I think it's probably fair to say that crypto, including privacy focused ones, are far more traceable than plain ol' cash.

And this is what's so ironic about the tech-libertarians: Their conviction is that technology will free us from the tyranny of governments, when in fact it has created the tools and infrastructure to enable state surveillance on a scale beyond what history has ever seen.

Is it illegal for me to pay a builder $50k in cash for replacing my roof in the US ?
Is it illegal for me to buy $50k of Bitcoin peer-to-peer (non-KYC) in the US ?

In any case, the scenario being discussed here is fleeing an authoritarian regime. That being the case, I DGAF about any money laundering laws - the gloves are off.
And, good luck fleeing said authoritarian regime with your suitcase full of "plain ol' cash".

[Stimpy]

Is it illegal for me to pay a builder $50k in cash for replacing my roof in the US ?
Is it illegal for me to buy $50k of Bitcoin peer-to-peer (non-KYC) in the US ?

In any case, the scenario being discussed here is fleeing an authoritarian regime. That being the case, I DGAF about any money laundering laws - the gloves are off.
And, good luck fleeing said authoritarian regime with your suitcase full of "plain ol' cash".

No one, with actual wealth, fleeing an authoritarian regime, is carrying a suit case full of cash.   As said here.   Foreign accounts, probably foreign real estate, ect are already there and waiting.  China, specifically those fleeing Hong Kong, is a good example of recent events where THIS HAPPENED.  Was it the extreme case.... No.  But it's close enough. 
And to be clear some of those didn't get out with anything.  Not sure how they could have, given the great fire wall and China's actively acting against Crypto but assuming it could have gotten all over to a BTC wallet....  AND assuming they memorized all the keys/key phrases.    it honestly is hard to spend BTC when your a refugee with little or no internet access.

No one, as of yet, is going after you for having BTC or any other crypto.  AND I hope no one ever does so long as your not breaking the law.  However, since it's tracked, your every move could be watched if someone choose to do so.   Just be aware.  BTC isn't your friend if your running from something.  That is all there is to say.

[LateStarter]

Is it illegal for me to pay a builder $50k in cash for replacing my roof in the US ?
Is it illegal for me to buy $50k of Bitcoin peer-to-peer (non-KYC) in the US ?

In any case, the scenario being discussed here is fleeing an authoritarian regime. That being the case, I DGAF about any money laundering laws - the gloves are off.
And, good luck fleeing said authoritarian regime with your suitcase full of "plain ol' cash".

No one, with actual wealth, fleeing an authoritarian regime, is carrying a suit case full of cash.

I agree. That was just my response to FINate's (out of context) statement that " . . crypto, including privacy focused ones, are far more traceable than plain ol' cash."

As said here.   Foreign accounts, probably foreign real estate, ect are already there and waiting.  China, specifically those fleeing Hong Kong, is a good example of recent events where THIS HAPPENED.  Was it the extreme case.... No.  But it's close enough. 
And to be clear some of those didn't get out with anything.  Not sure how they could have, given the great fire wall and China's actively acting against Crypto but assuming it could have gotten all over to a BTC wallet....  AND assuming they memorized all the keys/key phrases.    it honestly is hard to spend BTC when your a refugee with little or no internet access.

Yet another ludicrous apples vs oranges comparison.

At your destination, your foreign accounts and your foreign real estate, etc. are all 'there and waiting'. How lovely and cosy for you.
At my destination, I haven't even got internet access !

I mean, come on, it's laughable . . .

No one, as of yet, is going after you for having BTC or any other crypto.  AND I hope no one ever does so long as your not breaking the law.  However, since it's tracked, your every move could be watched if someone choose to do so.   Just be aware.  BTC isn't your friend if your running from something.  That is all there is to say.

You think 'they' can't trace your foreign accounts and foreign real estate or anything else of any consequence ?

It's difficult to hide any significant property from a powerful and determined tracker. I maintain that it's probably easier to hide (and retain control of) Bitcoin than any conventional asset.

[Scandium]

Let me put if for you quite simply.  I believe bitcoin will always go on to make a greater ATH.  I believe in Bitcoin as a store of value, I don't believe there is ever going to be an ultimate 'top' for bitcoin because I believe the printed out of thin air fiat currencies we value it in will always devalue over time, this is what ultimately drives capital towards the harder asset which is Bitcoin, the only asset which humans cannot increase the supply of.  Let me say it again, there is no top for bitcoin because there is no bottom for fiat, fiat will always be printed into infinity.

Now, you can argue the timing of peoples investments all you like, yes the people who bought the last ATH are currently 'at loss', but the next ATH will come around and at that moment, nominally the amount of people 'at loss' at the next ATH will be zero.  Yes there will be another 'crash' at some stage, yes people will be at 'loss' for a year or two, but IMO the value of bitcoin will always eventually go up vs printed fiat currencies inflating away their value over time.  This is really all I have to say on the matter as all of this has been covered in the past I'm sure.

Sure, this is true; there's a limited supply of BTC. Just as there's a limited supply of gold, MTG cards, or used tissues signed by Tom Hanks.. But it doesn't follow that the value of those things will go up forever. They also need to have a utility, otherwise you're just paying for the novelty of owning something, which has a pretty limited market.

Utility is in the eye of the beholder. Don't conflate "I see no utility" or "it has no utility for me" with "it has no utility".

Ok. so what is the utility of BTC? Now? and in the future?
What problem does it solve (I assume debasing of fiat?)? How does it solve that, i.e. how will having lots of BTC help me in that situation?
Will we all at some point decide that dollar is worthless and start doing all transactions in BTC? MY boss will pay me btc, i'll buy milk in btc? Is this adopted by the state, or a barter economy? Feel free to correct and educate me here, I'm really curious.

If this is the case, the way I see it this will then come about in two ways;
- we switch suddenly; every BTC-bro instantly become wealthy as they have the only currency. The other 97% of the population have zero wealth overnight..
- there is a transition, were $ convert to BTC. Like the Euro I guess.

scenario 1 I'm already screwed. And far fetched, since any policy that toss 90% of the population into instant poverty seems rather unlikely
Scenario 2 it doesn't matter. I'll just hang onto dollars and wait.

In either case I don't see the point in hording BTC now.

[FINate]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

As I suggested, I haven't given this extreme scenario a whole lot of thought - this isn't a future I'm anticipating . . .

However . . . I can very effectively cover my existing Bitcoin on-chain tracks with mixing, etc. if I choose. Border control might strongly suspect I still have some Bitcoin but they can't know for sure. Also, there are ways to acquire Bitcoin with zero KYC, eg. peer-to-peer cash exchange, and if onerous controls are in place you can be sure that (black market) service will become widely available - supply will meet demand. Border Control won't know I own that Bitcoin. I think some Bitcoin stored in my head would be at least as effective as any other potential solution if the world goes completely to shit. If things get bad enough that mixed or zero-KYC Bitcoin don't help, I think all bets are off.

It's already the case, in the US at least, that avoiding KYC is likely a violation of money laundering laws. Attempting to conceal the movement of larger amounts of money into/within cryto is a very bad idea.

Monero tries to maintain privacy on the blockchain by mixing, along with other strategies. It hasn't worked, and it's estimated that perhaps 90% of monero is traceable, which is increasing over time as tracers improve their algorithms.

I think it's probably fair to say that crypto, including privacy focused ones, are far more traceable than plain ol' cash.

And this is what's so ironic about the tech-libertarians: Their conviction is that technology will free us from the tyranny of governments, when in fact it has created the tools and infrastructure to enable state surveillance on a scale beyond what history has ever seen.

Is it illegal for me to pay a builder $50k in cash for replacing my roof in the US ?
Is it illegal for me to buy $50k of Bitcoin peer-to-peer (non-KYC) in the US ?

In any case, the scenario being discussed here is fleeing an authoritarian regime. That being the case, I DGAF about any money laundering laws - the gloves are off.
And, good luck fleeing said authoritarian regime with your suitcase full of "plain ol' cash".

If you go to a US bank, which is KYC, and withdraw $50k this is all fine and legal, but the bank must report the transaction to the federal government. Attempting to spit withdrawals into smaller chucks (less then $10k) to avoid reporting can get you into trouble. This isn't theoretical, it has happened to people.

Then for the roofing business, their cash transactions over $10k have to be reported to the IRS on Form 8300, which includes the information of the person that the cash came from. So if you pay $50k cash for a new roof you can be sure the IRS will be interested who is paying with so much cash and where it came from. Starting in 2024 crypto will also be subject to Form 8300.

Paying for stuff in cash or crypto is fine. But like I said, trying to avoid KYC and/or moving stuff around with the intention of hiding things will likely cause problems.

ETA: for the record, I don't think a suitcase of cash is a good escape plan either. Like others have mentioned, offshore accounts are probably the better way (though the US also requires reporting on these, the same reporting is required for large crypto holdings). I'm generally not a fan of these worst case plans and it seems mostly like people living in fear. My point is just that public blockchains are way more traceable than cash.

[Stimpy]

Is it illegal for me to pay a builder $50k in cash for replacing my roof in the US ?
Is it illegal for me to buy $50k of Bitcoin peer-to-peer (non-KYC) in the US ?

In any case, the scenario being discussed here is fleeing an authoritarian regime. That being the case, I DGAF about any money laundering laws - the gloves are off.
And, good luck fleeing said authoritarian regime with your suitcase full of "plain ol' cash".

No one, with actual wealth, fleeing an authoritarian regime, is carrying a suit case full of cash.

I agree. That was just my response to FINate's (out of context) statement that " . . crypto, including privacy focused ones, are far more traceable than plain ol' cash."

As said here.   Foreign accounts, probably foreign real estate, ect are already there and waiting.  China, specifically those fleeing Hong Kong, is a good example of recent events where THIS HAPPENED.  Was it the extreme case.... No.  But it's close enough. 
And to be clear some of those didn't get out with anything.  Not sure how they could have, given the great fire wall and China's actively acting against Crypto but assuming it could have gotten all over to a BTC wallet....  AND assuming they memorized all the keys/key phrases.    it honestly is hard to spend BTC when your a refugee with little or no internet access.

Yet another ludicrous apples vs oranges comparison.

At your destination, your foreign accounts and your foreign real estate, etc. are all 'there and waiting'. How lovely and cosy for you.
At my destination, I haven't even got internet access !

I mean, come on, it's laughable . . .

No one, as of yet, is going after you for having BTC or any other crypto.  AND I hope no one ever does so long as your not breaking the law.  However, since it's tracked, your every move could be watched if someone choose to do so.   Just be aware.  BTC isn't your friend if your running from something.  That is all there is to say.

You think 'they' can't trace your foreign accounts and foreign real estate or anything else of any consequence ?

It's difficult to hide any significant property from a powerful and determined tracker. I maintain that it's probably easier to hide (and retain control of) Bitcoin than any conventional asset.

Never said internet wasn't available.  But little to no access means exactly that.   It might cost something and.... you have BTC to trade.   No one is taking it.  Also, not apples and oranges.  Real life.  Crypto didn't save them.

 And traceable.  Yes, we have the proof of that given how many extremely rich have tried to hide their money but someone found it....   So, while you can make it hard to trace, it's never impossible just near.  It is just MUCH easier to trace on the block chain.  Would it matter if your in a country that realistically isn't going to arrest you and sent you back without a good reason?  No.  Let it be traced.  It just means, if they want you, they know where your at.  Who ever "they" are.

[LateStarter]

Is it illegal for me to pay a builder $50k in cash for replacing my roof in the US ?
Is it illegal for me to buy $50k of Bitcoin peer-to-peer (non-KYC) in the US ?

In any case, the scenario being discussed here is fleeing an authoritarian regime. That being the case, I DGAF about any money laundering laws - the gloves are off.
And, good luck fleeing said authoritarian regime with your suitcase full of "plain ol' cash".

If you go to a US bank, which is KYC, and withdraw $50k this is all fine and legal, but the bank must report the transaction to the federal government. Attempting to spit withdrawals into smaller chucks (less then $10k) to avoid reporting can get you into trouble. This isn't theoretical, it has happened to people.

Then for the roofing business, their cash transactions over $10k have to be reported to the IRS on Form 8300, which includes the information of the person that the cash came from. So if you pay $50k cash for a new roof you can be sure the IRS will be interested who is paying with so much cash and where it came from. Starting in 2024 crypto will also be subject to Form 8300.

Paying for stuff in cash or crypto is fine. But like I said, trying to avoid KYC and/or moving stuff around with the intention of hiding things will likely cause problems.

Fair enough, but that doesn't change my view that Bitcoin is at least as good as any conventional asset for fleeing.

ETA: for the record, I don't think a suitcase of cash is a good escape plan either. Like others have mentioned, offshore accounts are probably the better way (though the US also requires reporting on these, the same reporting is required for large crypto holdings). I'm generally not a fan of these worst case plans and it seems mostly like people living in fear.

So, broadly speaking, the problems being discussed are universal to all significant assets - we agree.
I don't live in fear and have no plans to flee. I was simply responding to the claim that Bitcoin was a useless vehicle if . . .

My point is just that public blockchains are way more traceable than cash.

Except, as you described, in large amounts when the authorities actively take an interest.

[ChpBstrd]

Suppose the scenario arises where all the types of people who own crypto need to flee their country - presumably the US.

They're all heading to Europe, Canada, or the Caribbean where they need cash to set up their apartment, pay immigration lawyers, and buy a mattress to lay on the floor. Thus they're all selling their crypto at the same time.

The sudden wave of selling depletes the value of the crypto to near nothing. This seems like the endgame of using crypto to escape one country and set up shop in another.

[FINate]

Is it illegal for me to pay a builder $50k in cash for replacing my roof in the US ?
Is it illegal for me to buy $50k of Bitcoin peer-to-peer (non-KYC) in the US ?

In any case, the scenario being discussed here is fleeing an authoritarian regime. That being the case, I DGAF about any money laundering laws - the gloves are off.
And, good luck fleeing said authoritarian regime with your suitcase full of "plain ol' cash".

If you go to a US bank, which is KYC, and withdraw $50k this is all fine and legal, but the bank must report the transaction to the federal government. Attempting to spit withdrawals into smaller chucks (less then $10k) to avoid reporting can get you into trouble. This isn't theoretical, it has happened to people.

Then for the roofing business, their cash transactions over $10k have to be reported to the IRS on Form 8300, which includes the information of the person that the cash came from. So if you pay $50k cash for a new roof you can be sure the IRS will be interested who is paying with so much cash and where it came from. Starting in 2024 crypto will also be subject to Form 8300.

Paying for stuff in cash or crypto is fine. But like I said, trying to avoid KYC and/or moving stuff around with the intention of hiding things will likely cause problems.

Fair enough, but that doesn't change my view that Bitcoin is at least as good as any conventional asset for fleeing.

ETA: for the record, I don't think a suitcase of cash is a good escape plan either. Like others have mentioned, offshore accounts are probably the better way (though the US also requires reporting on these, the same reporting is required for large crypto holdings). I'm generally not a fan of these worst case plans and it seems mostly like people living in fear.

So, broadly speaking, the problems being discussed are universal to all significant assets - we agree.
I don't live in fear and have no plans to flee. I was simply responding to the claim that Bitcoin was a useless vehicle if . . .

My point is just that public blockchains are way more traceable than cash.

Except, as you described, in large amounts when the authorities actively take an interest.

And... we've come full-circle back to the question "what is it good for?" And by this I mean what value does it uniquely provide that other assets cannot? Bitcoin being "at least as good as any conventional asset for fleeing" is another way of saying it has failed its primary goals. Not anonymous. Not beyond the reach of government control. Not actually trust-less or disintermediated when used in the real world.

If I were worried about the US going full authoritarian, I would establish a bank account in Switzerland or some other non-extradition country. And I would keep a modest stash of physical cash on hand for use while making my escape and maybe bribing people along the way.

If I were buying illicit contraband (say drugs or whatever) and wanted complete privacy, I would absolutely pay in physical cash, rather than having a forever record of my transactions on a blockchain.
 
So it's sorta like other assets, but worse. A pain in the ass to use in normal commerce. Requires additional paperwork/reporting for tax purposes. And all my activity is public and can very likely be traced. From my view, the only thing it's good for is speculating on the value of BTC, e.g. line goes up.

[LateStarter]

Is it illegal for me to pay a builder $50k in cash for replacing my roof in the US ?
Is it illegal for me to buy $50k of Bitcoin peer-to-peer (non-KYC) in the US ?

In any case, the scenario being discussed here is fleeing an authoritarian regime. That being the case, I DGAF about any money laundering laws - the gloves are off.
And, good luck fleeing said authoritarian regime with your suitcase full of "plain ol' cash".

No one, with actual wealth, fleeing an authoritarian regime, is carrying a suit case full of cash.

I agree. That was just my response to FINate's (out of context) statement that " . . crypto, including privacy focused ones, are far more traceable than plain ol' cash."

As said here.   Foreign accounts, probably foreign real estate, ect are already there and waiting.  China, specifically those fleeing Hong Kong, is a good example of recent events where THIS HAPPENED.  Was it the extreme case.... No.  But it's close enough. 
And to be clear some of those didn't get out with anything.  Not sure how they could have, given the great fire wall and China's actively acting against Crypto but assuming it could have gotten all over to a BTC wallet....  AND assuming they memorized all the keys/key phrases.    it honestly is hard to spend BTC when your a refugee with little or no internet access.

Yet another ludicrous apples vs oranges comparison.

At your destination, your foreign accounts and your foreign real estate, etc. are all 'there and waiting'. How lovely and cosy for you.
At my destination, I haven't even got internet access !

I mean, come on, it's laughable . . .

No one, as of yet, is going after you for having BTC or any other crypto.  AND I hope no one ever does so long as your not breaking the law.  However, since it's tracked, your every move could be watched if someone choose to do so.   Just be aware.  BTC isn't your friend if your running from something.  That is all there is to say.

You think 'they' can't trace your foreign accounts and foreign real estate or anything else of any consequence ?

It's difficult to hide any significant property from a powerful and determined tracker. I maintain that it's probably easier to hide (and retain control of) Bitcoin than any conventional asset.

Never said internet wasn't available.  But little to no access means exactly that.   It might cost something and.... you have BTC to trade.   No one is taking it.  Also, not apples and oranges.  Real life.  Crypto didn't save them.

 And traceable.  Yes, we have the proof of that given how many extremely rich have tried to hide their money but someone found it....   So, while you can make it hard to trace, it's never impossible just near.  It is just MUCH easier to trace on the block chain.  Would it matter if your in a country that realistically isn't going to arrest you and sent you back without a good reason?  No.  Let it be traced.  It just means, if they want you, they know where your at.  Who ever "they" are.

Hilarious.

You're still imagining me showing up with nothing but the clothes on my back (hopefully) and a seed-phrase in my head, and no other forward-planning whatsoever.
Meanwhile, you've spent significant time and energy buying foreign real estate and arranging and funding foreign bank accounts.
It's apples and oranges through and through - and it's laughable.

And, regardless of all the above, your foreign bank accounts and foreign real estate are almost certainly more traceable than my Bitcoin, and waaaaay less mobile. If I'm screwed, we're all screwed.

[LateStarter]

Suppose the scenario arises where all the types of people who own crypto need to flee their country - presumably the US.

They're all heading to Europe, Canada, or the Caribbean where they need cash to set up their apartment, pay immigration lawyers, and buy a mattress to lay on the floor. Thus they're all selling their crypto at the same time.

The sudden wave of selling depletes the value of the crypto to near nothing. This seems like the endgame of using crypto to escape one country and set up shop in another.

Suppose an asteroid hit me in the eye and I couldn't see to type my seed-phrase . . . .

Please - enough of the dystopian fantasies - LOL . . .

[ChpBstrd]

Suppose the scenario arises where all the types of people who own crypto need to flee their country - presumably the US.

They're all heading to Europe, Canada, or the Caribbean where they need cash to set up their apartment, pay immigration lawyers, and buy a mattress to lay on the floor. Thus they're all selling their crypto at the same time.

The sudden wave of selling depletes the value of the crypto to near nothing. This seems like the endgame of using crypto to escape one country and set up shop in another.

Suppose an asteroid hit me in the eye and I couldn't see to type my seed-phrase . . . .

Please - enough of the dystopian fantasies - LOL . . .

So... back to all the real-world applications that are occurring right now to streamline transactions, reduce energy usage, enhance privacy, enhance security, and bring reliable banking services to poor people? I thought it was late 2023 and we've been through all that already, and are falling back on what-if explanations?

[Stimpy]

Hilarious.

You're still imagining me showing up with nothing but the clothes on my back (hopefully) and a seed-phrase in my head, and no other forward-planning whatsoever.
Meanwhile, you've spent significant time and energy buying foreign real estate and arranging and funding foreign bank accounts.
It's apples and oranges through and through - and it's laughable.

And, regardless of all the above, your foreign bank accounts and foreign real estate are almost certainly more traceable than my Bitcoin, and waaaaay less mobile. If I'm screwed, we're all screwed.

Not sure what part about "This happened" (Not the I put it all in crypto part, or at least that wasn't mentioned by those in this situation.)  you don't get.  But ok.   Hilarious.

Also, Panama Papers.  Look it up.  Quite intriguing read imo.   Either way, I'll stick to what I have.  Some small percent for gambling and if I feel I need to run...  Crypto won't be my saving grace, as it's not.

[LateStarter]

Suppose the scenario arises where all the types of people who own crypto need to flee their country - presumably the US.

They're all heading to Europe, Canada, or the Caribbean where they need cash to set up their apartment, pay immigration lawyers, and buy a mattress to lay on the floor. Thus they're all selling their crypto at the same time.

The sudden wave of selling depletes the value of the crypto to near nothing. This seems like the endgame of using crypto to escape one country and set up shop in another.

Suppose an asteroid hit me in the eye and I couldn't see to type my seed-phrase . . . .

Please - enough of the dystopian fantasies - LOL . . .

So... back to all the real-world applications that are occurring right now to streamline transactions, reduce energy usage, enhance privacy, enhance security, and bring reliable banking services to poor people? I thought it was late 2023 and we've been through all that already, and are falling back on what-if explanations?

1974 TCP/IP
1989 HTTP
1991 WWW
2004 Web 2.0
???? Web 3.0 ?
= 49 years


1979 1G
1979 brief case
1983 brick
1991 2G
1999 Blackberry
2001 3G
2007 Iphone
2009 4G
2021 5G
= 44 years


2008 Bitcoin White Paper
2009 Genesis block
2009 Bitcoin market cap < $1
2010 Pizza Day
2015 Lightning White Paper
2018 Lightning Pizza Day
2023 Bitcoin owners = 219 million (Techopedia)
2023 Bitcoin market cap = $700B
???? Spot ETFs ?
= 15 years


Rome wasn't built in a day. I think it's ticking along ok.

[LateStarter]

Is it illegal for me to pay a builder $50k in cash for replacing my roof in the US ?
Is it illegal for me to buy $50k of Bitcoin peer-to-peer (non-KYC) in the US ?

In any case, the scenario being discussed here is fleeing an authoritarian regime. That being the case, I DGAF about any money laundering laws - the gloves are off.
And, good luck fleeing said authoritarian regime with your suitcase full of "plain ol' cash".

If you go to a US bank, which is KYC, and withdraw $50k this is all fine and legal, but the bank must report the transaction to the federal government. Attempting to spit withdrawals into smaller chucks (less then $10k) to avoid reporting can get you into trouble. This isn't theoretical, it has happened to people.

Then for the roofing business, their cash transactions over $10k have to be reported to the IRS on Form 8300, which includes the information of the person that the cash came from. So if you pay $50k cash for a new roof you can be sure the IRS will be interested who is paying with so much cash and where it came from. Starting in 2024 crypto will also be subject to Form 8300.

Paying for stuff in cash or crypto is fine. But like I said, trying to avoid KYC and/or moving stuff around with the intention of hiding things will likely cause problems.

Fair enough, but that doesn't change my view that Bitcoin is at least as good as any conventional asset for fleeing.

ETA: for the record, I don't think a suitcase of cash is a good escape plan either. Like others have mentioned, offshore accounts are probably the better way (though the US also requires reporting on these, the same reporting is required for large crypto holdings). I'm generally not a fan of these worst case plans and it seems mostly like people living in fear.

So, broadly speaking, the problems being discussed are universal to all significant assets - we agree.
I don't live in fear and have no plans to flee. I was simply responding to the claim that Bitcoin was a useless vehicle if . . .

My point is just that public blockchains are way more traceable than cash.

Except, as you described, in large amounts when the authorities actively take an interest.

And... we've come full-circle back to the question "what is it good for?" And by this I mean what value does it uniquely provide that other assets cannot? Bitcoin being "at least as good as any conventional asset for fleeing" is another way of saying it has failed its primary goals. Not anonymous. Not beyond the reach of government control. Not actually trust-less or disintermediated when used in the real world.

"at least as good as" = "as good as or better". It's generally less traceable and more portable and more universally useful than the conventional alternatives we've discussed - imo. That said, it's not perfect.

If I were worried about the US going full authoritarian, I would establish a bank account in Switzerland or some other non-extradition country. And I would keep a modest stash of physical cash on hand for use while making my escape and maybe bribing people along the way.

I might do something similar. Also, some carefully acquired and mixed, etc. Bitcoin.

If I were buying illicit contraband (say drugs or whatever) and wanted complete privacy, I would absolutely pay in physical cash, rather than having a forever record of my transactions on a blockchain.

Yeah, cash would probably be better - less so as distance between me and the seller increases.

So it's sorta like other assets, but worse. A pain in the ass to use in normal commerce. Requires additional paperwork/reporting for tax purposes. And all my activity is public and can very likely be traced. From my view, the only thing it's good for is speculating on the value of BTC, e.g. line goes up.

My expectation is that it will become a very good store of value and unit of account. However, it won't be those things until it's much bigger. Also, I expect it to become a regular means of exchange for some, though probably not all in my lifetime, if ever.
Meanwhile, I am speculating that it will eventually get there - it will continue to get more widely adopted by individuals, institutions and maybe nations too - and yes, that the number will, consequently, continue to go up as things progress.


If you really want to understand the broader Bitcoiner view, read Saifedean Amous' The Bitcoin Standard, listen to The Saylor Series (at least episodes 1-13), read Jeff Booth's The Price of Tomorrow and his Finding Signal In A Noisy World article, read Lyn Alden's Broken Money. I would expect everyone here to find them interesting even if they disagree with them. At least you'll get to properly understand where a good many Bitcoiners are coming from.
It really is about much more than 'number go up' for many people. Unfortunately, it's just not possible to condense 3 books and a 20 hour discussion into a few pithy forum posts - especially against a barrage of determined opposition.

And please feel free to recommend some material I should look at to challenge my libertarian, hard money, etc. leanings. I'm genuinely interested. I've read quite a bit but I just don't get bigGov and MMT, etc. - it seems like total bullshit - but I'm more than happy to read more. I freely acknowledge that I could be wrong.

[Telecaster]

So... back to all the real-world applications that are occurring right now to streamline transactions, reduce energy usage, enhance privacy, enhance security, and bring reliable banking services to poor people? I thought it was late 2023 and we've been through all that already, and are falling back on what-if explanations?

I think there was a bit of target fixation on a hypothetical scenario.    If I need to flee across borders in some future dystopian scenario maybe Bitcoin is the way best. Shoot, I have no idea.
  Not something I've thought about.    What about the real scenarios?  For example, how is Bitcoin functioning as a peer-to-peer electronic cash transaction system?   Are people using it to make payments the way it was designed to do?   

To become adopted outside of niche speculators, Bitcoin needs to do something better than the regular financial system for some reasonably large percentage of normal users.   

Bitcoin is objectively worse as a payment system for regular transactions. So not that. 
Third party providers like Bitpay make it a lot better, but are not peer-to-peer (the reason for Bitcoin) and add an additional friction layer, which means they are worse too.
Since Bitcoin was created, other solutions to bank the unbanked have exploded in popularity (approaching a billion users).   This lack of adoption indicates Bitcoin is not a good solution for this problem despite the huge potential market.     
Crypto remittances from the US to foreign countries are a tiny fraction of the total, which indicates Bitcoin is not a good solution for this problem either.


Crypto maxis argue one day the Lightning Network will come along and fix many of these problems.  But it hasn't.   It is still a hypothetical solution.   

[LateStarter]

Hilarious.

You're still imagining me showing up with nothing but the clothes on my back (hopefully) and a seed-phrase in my head, and no other forward-planning whatsoever.
Meanwhile, you've spent significant time and energy buying foreign real estate and arranging and funding foreign bank accounts.
It's apples and oranges through and through - and it's laughable.

And, regardless of all the above, your foreign bank accounts and foreign real estate are almost certainly more traceable than my Bitcoin, and waaaaay less mobile. If I'm screwed, we're all screwed.

Not sure what part about "This happened" (Not the I put it all in crypto part, or at least that wasn't mentioned by those in this situation.)  you don't get.  But ok.   Hilarious.

Also, Panama Papers.  Look it up.  Quite intriguing read imo.   Either way, I'll stick to what I have.  Some small percent for gambling and if I feel I need to run...  Crypto won't be my saving grace, as it's not.

What am I supposed to do with a vague reference to "This happened". It's not even clear what's supposed to have happened - it certainly wasn't supported by any context or detail or evidence, etc.

I've read several reports in recent years about people escaping from Syria and, more recently, Ukraine with Bitcoin . . . So what, it's just hearsay unless I unearth and share some good evidence.

Rest assured, I have no plans to flee anywhere. I have no expectation of needing a 'saving grace'. This is waaaaay down on my personal list of concerns and Bitcoin use cases.
I didn't initiate this discussion to champion Bitcoin as the perfect fleeing vehicle. I was simply responding to FINate's claim that Bitcoin was useless in a fleeing scenario.

[Stimpy]

Hilarious.

You're still imagining me showing up with nothing but the clothes on my back (hopefully) and a seed-phrase in my head, and no other forward-planning whatsoever.
Meanwhile, you've spent significant time and energy buying foreign real estate and arranging and funding foreign bank accounts.
It's apples and oranges through and through - and it's laughable.

And, regardless of all the above, your foreign bank accounts and foreign real estate are almost certainly more traceable than my Bitcoin, and waaaaay less mobile. If I'm screwed, we're all screwed.

Not sure what part about "This happened" (Not the I put it all in crypto part, or at least that wasn't mentioned by those in this situation.)  you don't get.  But ok.   Hilarious.

Also, Panama Papers.  Look it up.  Quite intriguing read imo.   Either way, I'll stick to what I have.  Some small percent for gambling and if I feel I need to run...  Crypto won't be my saving grace, as it's not.

What am I supposed to do with a vague reference to "This happened". It's not even clear what's supposed to have happened - it certainly wasn't supported by any context or detail or evidence, etc.

I've read several reports in recent years about people escaping from Syria and, more recently, Ukraine with Bitcoin . . . So what, it's just hearsay unless I unearth and share some good evidence.

Rest assured, I have no plans to flee anywhere. I have no expectation of needing a 'saving grace'. This is waaaaay down on my personal list of concerns and Bitcoin use cases.
I didn't initiate this discussion to champion Bitcoin as the perfect fleeing vehicle. I was simply responding to FINate's claim that Bitcoin was useless in a fleeing scenario.

I'll be honest, it's been what 4 years since all that.   I'd try to dig up the stories but, really don't care to, especially given the time passage.  Hearsay, sure.   For those more recent ones you've read, that is fleeing war, I assume, more so then tyrants. Though the difference is probably fleeting at best.   I am certain someone HAS run with btc in their stash, though I doubt it was new wallet under duress.  But I am also certain that many of them didn't do such a thing.  Who came out ahead.  Probably none of the refugees who didn't already have something set up before hand.

Either way, it IS useless more often to not in a fleeing scenario, there will always an exception, cause humanity is.... weird.  (In a good way!)