What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation

[Stimpy]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

[FINate]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

[ChpBstrd]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

When such situations arose in the past, offshore accounts - often in another currency - have proven to be reliable ways for wealthy people to escape transitions to authoritarianism like in fascist/communist Europe, hyperinflating Argentina, the collapse of Venezuela, Russia's descent into authoritarianism, various wars in Africa, Syria, Iraq, etc. In this way, ending up penniless due to geopolitical changes would require the simultaneous collapse of two civilizations instead of just one's own. So again we are back to the question of what crypto can do that a fiat currency and traditional bank account cannot.

Arguably, an offshore bank offers refugees a better option than crypto because in addition to an online portal, one can show up at the teller's window in the foreign country, present ID, and obtain cash. Free access to crypto, OTOH, assumes the existence of internet connections which are not monitored by the government. In a place like China, Russia, India, or many others, logging into a crypto exchange essentially requires the permission and observation by the government agents running the great firewall. As such closed internets become more common, one's ability to use crypto to escape authoritarianism is reduced. In the exact scenario feared by people who worry about authoritarianism in the US, the internet would probably cease to be free - just as it is not free in vast swaths of the world. A future internet that is fragmented and monitored raises questions about the future function of crypto assets and how one would trade them.

Fiat currencies, meanwhile, have a relatively good record of being recognized even when authoritarian governments take over. Currencies like the Turkish lira, the Russian ruble, or the Egyptian pound outlasted democracy in those countries and were freely exchanged throughout the transition to authoritarian rule. Yes, they would go on to lose a lot of value, but they were nonetheless freely traded at times when governments were rounding up and torturing political prisoners. The exception is of course communism, in which bank assets were seized or obliterated. Even then, a Swiss bank account and current passport was usually the better answer compared to a treasure chest of gold and gems.

The core issue is this: A repressive government would have to smash its own economy and its own corrupt incentive structure if it eliminated the currency or closed off the economy. By keeping the economy the relatively open, they negate a key source of popular discontent. Authoritarian governments have no similar incentives to protect markets for cryptocurrencies.

[LateStarter]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

When such situations arose in the past, offshore accounts - often in another currency - have proven to be reliable ways for wealthy people to escape transitions to authoritarianism like in fascist/communist Europe, hyperinflating Argentina, the collapse of Venezuela, Russia's descent into authoritarianism, various wars in Africa, Syria, Iraq, etc. In this way, ending up penniless due to geopolitical changes would require the simultaneous collapse of two civilizations instead of just one's own. So again we are back to the question of what crypto can do that a fiat currency and traditional bank account cannot.

Arguably, an offshore bank offers refugees a better option than crypto because in addition to an online portal, one can show up at the teller's window in the foreign country, present ID, and obtain cash. Free access to crypto, OTOH, assumes the existence of internet connections which are not monitored by the government. In a place like China, Russia, India, or many others, logging into a crypto exchange essentially requires the permission and observation by the government agents running the great firewall. As such closed internets become more common, one's ability to use crypto to escape authoritarianism is reduced. In the exact scenario feared by people who worry about authoritarianism in the US, the internet would probably cease to be free - just as it is not free in vast swaths of the world. A future internet that is fragmented and monitored raises questions about the future function of crypto assets and how one would trade them.

Fiat currencies, meanwhile, have a relatively good record of being recognized even when authoritarian governments take over. Currencies like the Turkish lira, the Russian ruble, or the Egyptian pound outlasted democracy in those countries and were freely exchanged throughout the transition to authoritarian rule. Yes, they would go on to lose a lot of value, but they were nonetheless freely traded at times when governments were rounding up and torturing political prisoners. The exception is of course communism, in which bank assets were seized or obliterated. Even then, a Swiss bank account and current passport was usually the better answer compared to a treasure chest of gold and gems.

The core issue is this: A repressive government would have to smash its own economy and its own corrupt incentive structure if it eliminated the currency or closed off the economy. By keeping the economy the relatively open, they negate a key source of popular discontent. Authoritarian governments have no similar incentives to protect markets for cryptocurrencies.

So, in summary:
It's easier to escape authoritarianism today with an Offshore Bank Account than it would be in some imaginary dystopian future with Crypto.

That seems a rather pointless claim to make.

[FINate]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

[LateStarter]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

As I suggested, I haven't given this extreme scenario a whole lot of thought - this isn't a future I'm anticipating . . .

However . . . I can very effectively cover my existing Bitcoin on-chain tracks with mixing, etc. if I choose. Border control might strongly suspect I still have some Bitcoin but they can't know for sure. Also, there are ways to acquire Bitcoin with zero KYC, eg. peer-to-peer cash exchange, and if onerous controls are in place you can be sure that (black market) service will become widely available - supply will meet demand. Border Control won't know I own that Bitcoin. I think some Bitcoin stored in my head would be at least as effective as any other potential solution if the world goes completely to shit. If things get bad enough that mixed or zero-KYC Bitcoin don't help, I think all bets are off.

[ChpBstrd]

Or the government (any government really) could say that mixing or evading controls is prima facia evidence of money laundering, tax evasion, or other criminal intent. They could put a hold on your passport and say you can't leave the country until you account for that mixing transaction you did four or five years ago.

This scenario would make sense, as crime remains the only semi-functional use case for crypto and the US government is sweeping up records of crypto trades like they're personal emails or something.

[GuitarStv]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

As I suggested, I haven't given this extreme scenario a whole lot of thought - this isn't a future I'm anticipating . . .

However . . . I can very effectively cover my existing Bitcoin on-chain tracks with mixing, etc. if I choose. Border control might strongly suspect I still have some Bitcoin but they can't know for sure. Also, there are ways to acquire Bitcoin with zero KYC, eg. peer-to-peer cash exchange, and if onerous controls are in place you can be sure that (black market) service will become widely available - supply will meet demand. Border Control won't know I own that Bitcoin. I think some Bitcoin stored in my head would be at least as effective as any other potential solution if the world goes completely to shit. If things get bad enough that mixed or zero-KYC Bitcoin don't help, I think all bets are off.

A bitcoin private key is a 64 digit hex code . . . something like this:
E9873D79C6D87DC0FB6A5778633389F4453213303DA61F20BD67FC233AA3

I'd be willing to wager the the average person would have difficulty memorizing and recalling something like this under stress.

[LateStarter]

Or the government (any government really) could say that mixing or evading controls is prima facia evidence of money laundering, tax evasion, or other criminal intent. They could put a hold on your passport and say you can't leave the country until you account for that mixing transaction you did four or five years ago.

They could. Likewise with your Offshore Bank Account and the several kg of gold around your neck, etc.

This scenario would make sense, as crime remains the only semi-functional use case for crypto and the US government is sweeping up records of crypto trades like they're personal emails or something.

Why do you assume that any desire for monetary anonymity/privacy or freedom is synonymous with ill-intent ?

Do you feel the same about free speech ? After all, most of us probably don't say much that offends many - we don't really need it. The main beneficiaries of free speech are people that say objectionable things, so it's a bad thing - right ?

[LateStarter]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

As I suggested, I haven't given this extreme scenario a whole lot of thought - this isn't a future I'm anticipating . . .

However . . . I can very effectively cover my existing Bitcoin on-chain tracks with mixing, etc. if I choose. Border control might strongly suspect I still have some Bitcoin but they can't know for sure. Also, there are ways to acquire Bitcoin with zero KYC, eg. peer-to-peer cash exchange, and if onerous controls are in place you can be sure that (black market) service will become widely available - supply will meet demand. Border Control won't know I own that Bitcoin. I think some Bitcoin stored in my head would be at least as effective as any other potential solution if the world goes completely to shit. If things get bad enough that mixed or zero-KYC Bitcoin don't help, I think all bets are off.

A bitcoin private key is a 64 digit hex code . . . something like this:
E9873D79C6D87DC0FB6A5778633389F4453213303DA61F20BD67FC233AA3

I'd be willing to wager the the average person would have difficulty memorizing and recalling something like this under stress.

https://www.google.com/search?q=seed+phrase

[Stimpy]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

As I suggested, I haven't given this extreme scenario a whole lot of thought - this isn't a future I'm anticipating . . .

However . . . I can very effectively cover my existing Bitcoin on-chain tracks with mixing, etc. if I choose. Border control might strongly suspect I still have some Bitcoin but they can't know for sure. Also, there are ways to acquire Bitcoin with zero KYC, eg. peer-to-peer cash exchange, and if onerous controls are in place you can be sure that (black market) service will become widely available - supply will meet demand. Border Control won't know I own that Bitcoin. I think some Bitcoin stored in my head would be at least as effective as any other potential solution if the world goes completely to shit. If things get bad enough that mixed or zero-KYC Bitcoin don't help, I think all bets are off.

A bitcoin private key is a 64 digit hex code . . . something like this:
E9873D79C6D87DC0FB6A5778633389F4453213303DA61F20BD67FC233AA3

I'd be willing to wager the the average person would have difficulty memorizing and recalling something like this under stress.

https://www.google.com/search?q=seed+phrase

And 12, up to 24 random words would be easier to memorize under stress how?   I can say for a fact I am not under stress and it would take me some time to remember all of the word for one wallet.  And if you have multiple wallets.....  forget about it.

[GuitarStv]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

As I suggested, I haven't given this extreme scenario a whole lot of thought - this isn't a future I'm anticipating . . .

However . . . I can very effectively cover my existing Bitcoin on-chain tracks with mixing, etc. if I choose. Border control might strongly suspect I still have some Bitcoin but they can't know for sure. Also, there are ways to acquire Bitcoin with zero KYC, eg. peer-to-peer cash exchange, and if onerous controls are in place you can be sure that (black market) service will become widely available - supply will meet demand. Border Control won't know I own that Bitcoin. I think some Bitcoin stored in my head would be at least as effective as any other potential solution if the world goes completely to shit. If things get bad enough that mixed or zero-KYC Bitcoin don't help, I think all bets are off.

A bitcoin private key is a 64 digit hex code . . . something like this:
E9873D79C6D87DC0FB6A5778633389F4453213303DA61F20BD67FC233AA3

I'd be willing to wager the the average person would have difficulty memorizing and recalling something like this under stress.

https://www.google.com/search?q=seed+phrase

Having a computer generate a phrase for you is going to be better to remember . . . but doesn't really solve the problem.

hotel obvious agent lecture gadget evil jealous keen fragile before damp clarify

How many times a week do you check that your memory of this computer generated seed phrase is correct?  How many people will actually follow through on that well enough that it's available when they need it?

[FINate]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

As I suggested, I haven't given this extreme scenario a whole lot of thought - this isn't a future I'm anticipating . . .

However . . . I can very effectively cover my existing Bitcoin on-chain tracks with mixing, etc. if I choose. Border control might strongly suspect I still have some Bitcoin but they can't know for sure. Also, there are ways to acquire Bitcoin with zero KYC, eg. peer-to-peer cash exchange, and if onerous controls are in place you can be sure that (black market) service will become widely available - supply will meet demand. Border Control won't know I own that Bitcoin. I think some Bitcoin stored in my head would be at least as effective as any other potential solution if the world goes completely to shit. If things get bad enough that mixed or zero-KYC Bitcoin don't help, I think all bets are off.

It's already the case, in the US at least, that avoiding KYC is likely a violation of money laundering laws. Attempting to conceal the movement of larger amounts of money into/within cryto is a very bad idea.

Monero tries to maintain privacy on the blockchain by mixing, along with other strategies. It hasn't worked, and it's estimated that perhaps 90% of monero is traceable, which is increasing over time as tracers improve their algorithms.

I think it's probably fair to say that crypto, including privacy focused ones, are far more traceable than plain ol' cash.

And this is what's so ironic about the tech-libertarians: Their conviction is that technology will free us from the tyranny of governments, when in fact it has created the tools and infrastructure to enable state surveillance on a scale beyond what history has ever seen.

[LateStarter]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

As I suggested, I haven't given this extreme scenario a whole lot of thought - this isn't a future I'm anticipating . . .

However . . . I can very effectively cover my existing Bitcoin on-chain tracks with mixing, etc. if I choose. Border control might strongly suspect I still have some Bitcoin but they can't know for sure. Also, there are ways to acquire Bitcoin with zero KYC, eg. peer-to-peer cash exchange, and if onerous controls are in place you can be sure that (black market) service will become widely available - supply will meet demand. Border Control won't know I own that Bitcoin. I think some Bitcoin stored in my head would be at least as effective as any other potential solution if the world goes completely to shit. If things get bad enough that mixed or zero-KYC Bitcoin don't help, I think all bets are off.

A bitcoin private key is a 64 digit hex code . . . something like this:
E9873D79C6D87DC0FB6A5778633389F4453213303DA61F20BD67FC233AA3

I'd be willing to wager the the average person would have difficulty memorizing and recalling something like this under stress.

https://www.google.com/search?q=seed+phrase

And 12, up to 24 random words would be easier to memorize under stress how?   I can say for a fact I am not under stress and it would take me some time to remember all of the word for one wallet.  And if you have multiple wallets.....  forget about it.

You think remembering 12/24 random words is no easier than remembering 64 random hex characters ? That's plain ridiculous.

You probably don't need multiple wallets but it's still manageable. There's plenty of methods that can help you memorise random words, eg. make up a story including the words in the right sequence - make it bright, exaggerated, shocking, emotional, etc. to help it stick, etc.

And you'd only need to memorise it under stress if you acquired the wallet at the last minute. Any Bitcoiners prepping to flee authoritarianism are probably more organised than that.

[LateStarter]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

As I suggested, I haven't given this extreme scenario a whole lot of thought - this isn't a future I'm anticipating . . .

However . . . I can very effectively cover my existing Bitcoin on-chain tracks with mixing, etc. if I choose. Border control might strongly suspect I still have some Bitcoin but they can't know for sure. Also, there are ways to acquire Bitcoin with zero KYC, eg. peer-to-peer cash exchange, and if onerous controls are in place you can be sure that (black market) service will become widely available - supply will meet demand. Border Control won't know I own that Bitcoin. I think some Bitcoin stored in my head would be at least as effective as any other potential solution if the world goes completely to shit. If things get bad enough that mixed or zero-KYC Bitcoin don't help, I think all bets are off.

A bitcoin private key is a 64 digit hex code . . . something like this:
E9873D79C6D87DC0FB6A5778633389F4453213303DA61F20BD67FC233AA3

I'd be willing to wager the the average person would have difficulty memorizing and recalling something like this under stress.

https://www.google.com/search?q=seed+phrase

Having a computer generate a phrase for you is going to be better to remember . . . but doesn't really solve the problem.

hotel obvious agent lecture gadget evil jealous keen fragile before damp clarify

How many times a week do you check that your memory of this computer generated seed phrase is correct?  How many people will actually follow through on that well enough that it's available when they need it?

I have little problem remembering my DOB, NI Number, bank card PIN numbers, email addresses, phone numbers, multiple passwords, car reg, combination lock numbers, etc. and all sorts of random stuff. If I've got a decent sum locked away behind a seed-phrase, I'll make damned sure I remember it.

And, as above, any Bitcoiners that are prepping to 'flee authoritarianism' are probably well prepared.
In all but the most immediate and catastrophic scenarios, any Bitcoiner using cold storage could probably review their seed-phrase before destroying their record of it and heading for the border.

[LateStarter]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

As I suggested, I haven't given this extreme scenario a whole lot of thought - this isn't a future I'm anticipating . . .

However . . . I can very effectively cover my existing Bitcoin on-chain tracks with mixing, etc. if I choose. Border control might strongly suspect I still have some Bitcoin but they can't know for sure. Also, there are ways to acquire Bitcoin with zero KYC, eg. peer-to-peer cash exchange, and if onerous controls are in place you can be sure that (black market) service will become widely available - supply will meet demand. Border Control won't know I own that Bitcoin. I think some Bitcoin stored in my head would be at least as effective as any other potential solution if the world goes completely to shit. If things get bad enough that mixed or zero-KYC Bitcoin don't help, I think all bets are off.

It's already the case, in the US at least, that avoiding KYC is likely a violation of money laundering laws. Attempting to conceal the movement of larger amounts of money into/within cryto is a very bad idea.

Monero tries to maintain privacy on the blockchain by mixing, along with other strategies. It hasn't worked, and it's estimated that perhaps 90% of monero is traceable, which is increasing over time as tracers improve their algorithms.

I think it's probably fair to say that crypto, including privacy focused ones, are far more traceable than plain ol' cash.

And this is what's so ironic about the tech-libertarians: Their conviction is that technology will free us from the tyranny of governments, when in fact it has created the tools and infrastructure to enable state surveillance on a scale beyond what history has ever seen.

Is it illegal for me to pay a builder $50k in cash for replacing my roof in the US ?
Is it illegal for me to buy $50k of Bitcoin peer-to-peer (non-KYC) in the US ?

In any case, the scenario being discussed here is fleeing an authoritarian regime. That being the case, I DGAF about any money laundering laws - the gloves are off.
And, good luck fleeing said authoritarian regime with your suitcase full of "plain ol' cash".

[Stimpy]

Is it illegal for me to pay a builder $50k in cash for replacing my roof in the US ?
Is it illegal for me to buy $50k of Bitcoin peer-to-peer (non-KYC) in the US ?

In any case, the scenario being discussed here is fleeing an authoritarian regime. That being the case, I DGAF about any money laundering laws - the gloves are off.
And, good luck fleeing said authoritarian regime with your suitcase full of "plain ol' cash".

No one, with actual wealth, fleeing an authoritarian regime, is carrying a suit case full of cash.   As said here.   Foreign accounts, probably foreign real estate, ect are already there and waiting.  China, specifically those fleeing Hong Kong, is a good example of recent events where THIS HAPPENED.  Was it the extreme case.... No.  But it's close enough. 
And to be clear some of those didn't get out with anything.  Not sure how they could have, given the great fire wall and China's actively acting against Crypto but assuming it could have gotten all over to a BTC wallet....  AND assuming they memorized all the keys/key phrases.    it honestly is hard to spend BTC when your a refugee with little or no internet access.

No one, as of yet, is going after you for having BTC or any other crypto.  AND I hope no one ever does so long as your not breaking the law.  However, since it's tracked, your every move could be watched if someone choose to do so.   Just be aware.  BTC isn't your friend if your running from something.  That is all there is to say.

[LateStarter]

Is it illegal for me to pay a builder $50k in cash for replacing my roof in the US ?
Is it illegal for me to buy $50k of Bitcoin peer-to-peer (non-KYC) in the US ?

In any case, the scenario being discussed here is fleeing an authoritarian regime. That being the case, I DGAF about any money laundering laws - the gloves are off.
And, good luck fleeing said authoritarian regime with your suitcase full of "plain ol' cash".

No one, with actual wealth, fleeing an authoritarian regime, is carrying a suit case full of cash.

I agree. That was just my response to FINate's (out of context) statement that " . . crypto, including privacy focused ones, are far more traceable than plain ol' cash."

As said here.   Foreign accounts, probably foreign real estate, ect are already there and waiting.  China, specifically those fleeing Hong Kong, is a good example of recent events where THIS HAPPENED.  Was it the extreme case.... No.  But it's close enough. 
And to be clear some of those didn't get out with anything.  Not sure how they could have, given the great fire wall and China's actively acting against Crypto but assuming it could have gotten all over to a BTC wallet....  AND assuming they memorized all the keys/key phrases.    it honestly is hard to spend BTC when your a refugee with little or no internet access.

Yet another ludicrous apples vs oranges comparison.

At your destination, your foreign accounts and your foreign real estate, etc. are all 'there and waiting'. How lovely and cosy for you.
At my destination, I haven't even got internet access !

I mean, come on, it's laughable . . .

No one, as of yet, is going after you for having BTC or any other crypto.  AND I hope no one ever does so long as your not breaking the law.  However, since it's tracked, your every move could be watched if someone choose to do so.   Just be aware.  BTC isn't your friend if your running from something.  That is all there is to say.

You think 'they' can't trace your foreign accounts and foreign real estate or anything else of any consequence ?

It's difficult to hide any significant property from a powerful and determined tracker. I maintain that it's probably easier to hide (and retain control of) Bitcoin than any conventional asset.

[Scandium]

Let me put if for you quite simply.  I believe bitcoin will always go on to make a greater ATH.  I believe in Bitcoin as a store of value, I don't believe there is ever going to be an ultimate 'top' for bitcoin because I believe the printed out of thin air fiat currencies we value it in will always devalue over time, this is what ultimately drives capital towards the harder asset which is Bitcoin, the only asset which humans cannot increase the supply of.  Let me say it again, there is no top for bitcoin because there is no bottom for fiat, fiat will always be printed into infinity.

Now, you can argue the timing of peoples investments all you like, yes the people who bought the last ATH are currently 'at loss', but the next ATH will come around and at that moment, nominally the amount of people 'at loss' at the next ATH will be zero.  Yes there will be another 'crash' at some stage, yes people will be at 'loss' for a year or two, but IMO the value of bitcoin will always eventually go up vs printed fiat currencies inflating away their value over time.  This is really all I have to say on the matter as all of this has been covered in the past I'm sure.

Sure, this is true; there's a limited supply of BTC. Just as there's a limited supply of gold, MTG cards, or used tissues signed by Tom Hanks.. But it doesn't follow that the value of those things will go up forever. They also need to have a utility, otherwise you're just paying for the novelty of owning something, which has a pretty limited market.

Utility is in the eye of the beholder. Don't conflate "I see no utility" or "it has no utility for me" with "it has no utility".

Ok. so what is the utility of BTC? Now? and in the future?
What problem does it solve (I assume debasing of fiat?)? How does it solve that, i.e. how will having lots of BTC help me in that situation?
Will we all at some point decide that dollar is worthless and start doing all transactions in BTC? MY boss will pay me btc, i'll buy milk in btc? Is this adopted by the state, or a barter economy? Feel free to correct and educate me here, I'm really curious.

If this is the case, the way I see it this will then come about in two ways;
- we switch suddenly; every BTC-bro instantly become wealthy as they have the only currency. The other 97% of the population have zero wealth overnight..
- there is a transition, were $ convert to BTC. Like the Euro I guess.

scenario 1 I'm already screwed. And far fetched, since any policy that toss 90% of the population into instant poverty seems rather unlikely
Scenario 2 it doesn't matter. I'll just hang onto dollars and wait.

In either case I don't see the point in hording BTC now.

[FINate]

So it raises the question:  What do you need Bitcoin for?

Buying drugs, or machine guns, hiring a hitman to take out your wife, business partner, or Donald Trump, a place to store embezzled funds, the applications for bitcoin are quite numerous for criminals.

Ah yes, the greatest asset to Bitcoin, not being able to identify who owns it.... at least till you need to cash it out to usd, or spend it at a known entity that may or may not know you, or insert one of MANY various scenarios where you can be anonymous till your not.  AND if you don't believe me... See the history of the Silk road.

It is both the greatest strength and greatest weakness of bitcoin.   I am aware there are "untraceable" crypto's out there, but... none of those are main stream and lets be honest.  If you cash out to lets say, BTC and then to USD for one of those....  I would expect a knock on the door pending various other factors, obviously.

Yep. Which is why I chuckle when talk turns to crypto as a means to flee a repressive government. In some cases, sure, but only if the government in question isn't technologically sophisticated. Buying crypto in the US generally requires exchanges/brokers with KYC requirements, and moving large amounts of crypto in ways to avoid KYC is a likely to attract unwanted attention from the feds. It the US becomes repressive it's highly probable they figure out who owns what crypto. If a private key or seed phrase is physically stored somewhere, they'll find it. And even if the seed phrase is only in your head, they can use physical coercion to pry it from you... what good is a million bucks worth of crypto if you're sitting in a prison cell with no way to access it?

I'm not in the 'fleeing authoritarianism' camp, but I think the idea is to ensure you flee before things get to the 'prison cell' and 'physical coercion' stage.

If you're leaving early enough there's no need to sneak out with crypto. But if, say, capital controls are in place, then data from Chainalysis (or whatever) will have already been utilized to compile a database of those that own substantial crypto assets. US border agents check this database at passport control and refuse (or detain) those in the system. Having crypto assets makes you a target in this scenario.

As I suggested, I haven't given this extreme scenario a whole lot of thought - this isn't a future I'm anticipating . . .

However . . . I can very effectively cover my existing Bitcoin on-chain tracks with mixing, etc. if I choose. Border control might strongly suspect I still have some Bitcoin but they can't know for sure. Also, there are ways to acquire Bitcoin with zero KYC, eg. peer-to-peer cash exchange, and if onerous controls are in place you can be sure that (black market) service will become widely available - supply will meet demand. Border Control won't know I own that Bitcoin. I think some Bitcoin stored in my head would be at least as effective as any other potential solution if the world goes completely to shit. If things get bad enough that mixed or zero-KYC Bitcoin don't help, I think all bets are off.

It's already the case, in the US at least, that avoiding KYC is likely a violation of money laundering laws. Attempting to conceal the movement of larger amounts of money into/within cryto is a very bad idea.

Monero tries to maintain privacy on the blockchain by mixing, along with other strategies. It hasn't worked, and it's estimated that perhaps 90% of monero is traceable, which is increasing over time as tracers improve their algorithms.

I think it's probably fair to say that crypto, including privacy focused ones, are far more traceable than plain ol' cash.

And this is what's so ironic about the tech-libertarians: Their conviction is that technology will free us from the tyranny of governments, when in fact it has created the tools and infrastructure to enable state surveillance on a scale beyond what history has ever seen.

Is it illegal for me to pay a builder $50k in cash for replacing my roof in the US ?
Is it illegal for me to buy $50k of Bitcoin peer-to-peer (non-KYC) in the US ?

In any case, the scenario being discussed here is fleeing an authoritarian regime. That being the case, I DGAF about any money laundering laws - the gloves are off.
And, good luck fleeing said authoritarian regime with your suitcase full of "plain ol' cash".

If you go to a US bank, which is KYC, and withdraw $50k this is all fine and legal, but the bank must report the transaction to the federal government. Attempting to spit withdrawals into smaller chucks (less then $10k) to avoid reporting can get you into trouble. This isn't theoretical, it has happened to people.

Then for the roofing business, their cash transactions over $10k have to be reported to the IRS on Form 8300, which includes the information of the person that the cash came from. So if you pay $50k cash for a new roof you can be sure the IRS will be interested who is paying with so much cash and where it came from. Starting in 2024 crypto will also be subject to Form 8300.

Paying for stuff in cash or crypto is fine. But like I said, trying to avoid KYC and/or moving stuff around with the intention of hiding things will likely cause problems.

ETA: for the record, I don't think a suitcase of cash is a good escape plan either. Like others have mentioned, offshore accounts are probably the better way (though the US also requires reporting on these, the same reporting is required for large crypto holdings). I'm generally not a fan of these worst case plans and it seems mostly like people living in fear. My point is just that public blockchains are way more traceable than cash.

[Stimpy]

Is it illegal for me to pay a builder $50k in cash for replacing my roof in the US ?
Is it illegal for me to buy $50k of Bitcoin peer-to-peer (non-KYC) in the US ?

In any case, the scenario being discussed here is fleeing an authoritarian regime. That being the case, I DGAF about any money laundering laws - the gloves are off.
And, good luck fleeing said authoritarian regime with your suitcase full of "plain ol' cash".

No one, with actual wealth, fleeing an authoritarian regime, is carrying a suit case full of cash.

I agree. That was just my response to FINate's (out of context) statement that " . . crypto, including privacy focused ones, are far more traceable than plain ol' cash."

As said here.   Foreign accounts, probably foreign real estate, ect are already there and waiting.  China, specifically those fleeing Hong Kong, is a good example of recent events where THIS HAPPENED.  Was it the extreme case.... No.  But it's close enough. 
And to be clear some of those didn't get out with anything.  Not sure how they could have, given the great fire wall and China's actively acting against Crypto but assuming it could have gotten all over to a BTC wallet....  AND assuming they memorized all the keys/key phrases.    it honestly is hard to spend BTC when your a refugee with little or no internet access.

Yet another ludicrous apples vs oranges comparison.

At your destination, your foreign accounts and your foreign real estate, etc. are all 'there and waiting'. How lovely and cosy for you.
At my destination, I haven't even got internet access !

I mean, come on, it's laughable . . .

No one, as of yet, is going after you for having BTC or any other crypto.  AND I hope no one ever does so long as your not breaking the law.  However, since it's tracked, your every move could be watched if someone choose to do so.   Just be aware.  BTC isn't your friend if your running from something.  That is all there is to say.

You think 'they' can't trace your foreign accounts and foreign real estate or anything else of any consequence ?

It's difficult to hide any significant property from a powerful and determined tracker. I maintain that it's probably easier to hide (and retain control of) Bitcoin than any conventional asset.

Never said internet wasn't available.  But little to no access means exactly that.   It might cost something and.... you have BTC to trade.   No one is taking it.  Also, not apples and oranges.  Real life.  Crypto didn't save them.

 And traceable.  Yes, we have the proof of that given how many extremely rich have tried to hide their money but someone found it....   So, while you can make it hard to trace, it's never impossible just near.  It is just MUCH easier to trace on the block chain.  Would it matter if your in a country that realistically isn't going to arrest you and sent you back without a good reason?  No.  Let it be traced.  It just means, if they want you, they know where your at.  Who ever "they" are.

[LateStarter]

Is it illegal for me to pay a builder $50k in cash for replacing my roof in the US ?
Is it illegal for me to buy $50k of Bitcoin peer-to-peer (non-KYC) in the US ?

In any case, the scenario being discussed here is fleeing an authoritarian regime. That being the case, I DGAF about any money laundering laws - the gloves are off.
And, good luck fleeing said authoritarian regime with your suitcase full of "plain ol' cash".

If you go to a US bank, which is KYC, and withdraw $50k this is all fine and legal, but the bank must report the transaction to the federal government. Attempting to spit withdrawals into smaller chucks (less then $10k) to avoid reporting can get you into trouble. This isn't theoretical, it has happened to people.

Then for the roofing business, their cash transactions over $10k have to be reported to the IRS on Form 8300, which includes the information of the person that the cash came from. So if you pay $50k cash for a new roof you can be sure the IRS will be interested who is paying with so much cash and where it came from. Starting in 2024 crypto will also be subject to Form 8300.

Paying for stuff in cash or crypto is fine. But like I said, trying to avoid KYC and/or moving stuff around with the intention of hiding things will likely cause problems.

Fair enough, but that doesn't change my view that Bitcoin is at least as good as any conventional asset for fleeing.

ETA: for the record, I don't think a suitcase of cash is a good escape plan either. Like others have mentioned, offshore accounts are probably the better way (though the US also requires reporting on these, the same reporting is required for large crypto holdings). I'm generally not a fan of these worst case plans and it seems mostly like people living in fear.

So, broadly speaking, the problems being discussed are universal to all significant assets - we agree.
I don't live in fear and have no plans to flee. I was simply responding to the claim that Bitcoin was a useless vehicle if . . .

My point is just that public blockchains are way more traceable than cash.

Except, as you described, in large amounts when the authorities actively take an interest.

[ChpBstrd]

Suppose the scenario arises where all the types of people who own crypto need to flee their country - presumably the US.

They're all heading to Europe, Canada, or the Caribbean where they need cash to set up their apartment, pay immigration lawyers, and buy a mattress to lay on the floor. Thus they're all selling their crypto at the same time.

The sudden wave of selling depletes the value of the crypto to near nothing. This seems like the endgame of using crypto to escape one country and set up shop in another.

[FINate]

Is it illegal for me to pay a builder $50k in cash for replacing my roof in the US ?
Is it illegal for me to buy $50k of Bitcoin peer-to-peer (non-KYC) in the US ?

In any case, the scenario being discussed here is fleeing an authoritarian regime. That being the case, I DGAF about any money laundering laws - the gloves are off.
And, good luck fleeing said authoritarian regime with your suitcase full of "plain ol' cash".

If you go to a US bank, which is KYC, and withdraw $50k this is all fine and legal, but the bank must report the transaction to the federal government. Attempting to spit withdrawals into smaller chucks (less then $10k) to avoid reporting can get you into trouble. This isn't theoretical, it has happened to people.

Then for the roofing business, their cash transactions over $10k have to be reported to the IRS on Form 8300, which includes the information of the person that the cash came from. So if you pay $50k cash for a new roof you can be sure the IRS will be interested who is paying with so much cash and where it came from. Starting in 2024 crypto will also be subject to Form 8300.

Paying for stuff in cash or crypto is fine. But like I said, trying to avoid KYC and/or moving stuff around with the intention of hiding things will likely cause problems.

Fair enough, but that doesn't change my view that Bitcoin is at least as good as any conventional asset for fleeing.

ETA: for the record, I don't think a suitcase of cash is a good escape plan either. Like others have mentioned, offshore accounts are probably the better way (though the US also requires reporting on these, the same reporting is required for large crypto holdings). I'm generally not a fan of these worst case plans and it seems mostly like people living in fear.

So, broadly speaking, the problems being discussed are universal to all significant assets - we agree.
I don't live in fear and have no plans to flee. I was simply responding to the claim that Bitcoin was a useless vehicle if . . .

My point is just that public blockchains are way more traceable than cash.

Except, as you described, in large amounts when the authorities actively take an interest.

And... we've come full-circle back to the question "what is it good for?" And by this I mean what value does it uniquely provide that other assets cannot? Bitcoin being "at least as good as any conventional asset for fleeing" is another way of saying it has failed its primary goals. Not anonymous. Not beyond the reach of government control. Not actually trust-less or disintermediated when used in the real world.

If I were worried about the US going full authoritarian, I would establish a bank account in Switzerland or some other non-extradition country. And I would keep a modest stash of physical cash on hand for use while making my escape and maybe bribing people along the way.

If I were buying illicit contraband (say drugs or whatever) and wanted complete privacy, I would absolutely pay in physical cash, rather than having a forever record of my transactions on a blockchain.
 
So it's sorta like other assets, but worse. A pain in the ass to use in normal commerce. Requires additional paperwork/reporting for tax purposes. And all my activity is public and can very likely be traced. From my view, the only thing it's good for is speculating on the value of BTC, e.g. line goes up.

[LateStarter]

Is it illegal for me to pay a builder $50k in cash for replacing my roof in the US ?
Is it illegal for me to buy $50k of Bitcoin peer-to-peer (non-KYC) in the US ?

In any case, the scenario being discussed here is fleeing an authoritarian regime. That being the case, I DGAF about any money laundering laws - the gloves are off.
And, good luck fleeing said authoritarian regime with your suitcase full of "plain ol' cash".

No one, with actual wealth, fleeing an authoritarian regime, is carrying a suit case full of cash.

I agree. That was just my response to FINate's (out of context) statement that " . . crypto, including privacy focused ones, are far more traceable than plain ol' cash."

As said here.   Foreign accounts, probably foreign real estate, ect are already there and waiting.  China, specifically those fleeing Hong Kong, is a good example of recent events where THIS HAPPENED.  Was it the extreme case.... No.  But it's close enough. 
And to be clear some of those didn't get out with anything.  Not sure how they could have, given the great fire wall and China's actively acting against Crypto but assuming it could have gotten all over to a BTC wallet....  AND assuming they memorized all the keys/key phrases.    it honestly is hard to spend BTC when your a refugee with little or no internet access.

Yet another ludicrous apples vs oranges comparison.

At your destination, your foreign accounts and your foreign real estate, etc. are all 'there and waiting'. How lovely and cosy for you.
At my destination, I haven't even got internet access !

I mean, come on, it's laughable . . .

No one, as of yet, is going after you for having BTC or any other crypto.  AND I hope no one ever does so long as your not breaking the law.  However, since it's tracked, your every move could be watched if someone choose to do so.   Just be aware.  BTC isn't your friend if your running from something.  That is all there is to say.

You think 'they' can't trace your foreign accounts and foreign real estate or anything else of any consequence ?

It's difficult to hide any significant property from a powerful and determined tracker. I maintain that it's probably easier to hide (and retain control of) Bitcoin than any conventional asset.

Never said internet wasn't available.  But little to no access means exactly that.   It might cost something and.... you have BTC to trade.   No one is taking it.  Also, not apples and oranges.  Real life.  Crypto didn't save them.

 And traceable.  Yes, we have the proof of that given how many extremely rich have tried to hide their money but someone found it....   So, while you can make it hard to trace, it's never impossible just near.  It is just MUCH easier to trace on the block chain.  Would it matter if your in a country that realistically isn't going to arrest you and sent you back without a good reason?  No.  Let it be traced.  It just means, if they want you, they know where your at.  Who ever "they" are.

Hilarious.

You're still imagining me showing up with nothing but the clothes on my back (hopefully) and a seed-phrase in my head, and no other forward-planning whatsoever.
Meanwhile, you've spent significant time and energy buying foreign real estate and arranging and funding foreign bank accounts.
It's apples and oranges through and through - and it's laughable.

And, regardless of all the above, your foreign bank accounts and foreign real estate are almost certainly more traceable than my Bitcoin, and waaaaay less mobile. If I'm screwed, we're all screwed.

[LateStarter]

Suppose the scenario arises where all the types of people who own crypto need to flee their country - presumably the US.

They're all heading to Europe, Canada, or the Caribbean where they need cash to set up their apartment, pay immigration lawyers, and buy a mattress to lay on the floor. Thus they're all selling their crypto at the same time.

The sudden wave of selling depletes the value of the crypto to near nothing. This seems like the endgame of using crypto to escape one country and set up shop in another.

Suppose an asteroid hit me in the eye and I couldn't see to type my seed-phrase . . . .

Please - enough of the dystopian fantasies - LOL . . .

[ChpBstrd]

Suppose the scenario arises where all the types of people who own crypto need to flee their country - presumably the US.

They're all heading to Europe, Canada, or the Caribbean where they need cash to set up their apartment, pay immigration lawyers, and buy a mattress to lay on the floor. Thus they're all selling their crypto at the same time.

The sudden wave of selling depletes the value of the crypto to near nothing. This seems like the endgame of using crypto to escape one country and set up shop in another.

Suppose an asteroid hit me in the eye and I couldn't see to type my seed-phrase . . . .

Please - enough of the dystopian fantasies - LOL . . .

So... back to all the real-world applications that are occurring right now to streamline transactions, reduce energy usage, enhance privacy, enhance security, and bring reliable banking services to poor people? I thought it was late 2023 and we've been through all that already, and are falling back on what-if explanations?

[Stimpy]

Hilarious.

You're still imagining me showing up with nothing but the clothes on my back (hopefully) and a seed-phrase in my head, and no other forward-planning whatsoever.
Meanwhile, you've spent significant time and energy buying foreign real estate and arranging and funding foreign bank accounts.
It's apples and oranges through and through - and it's laughable.

And, regardless of all the above, your foreign bank accounts and foreign real estate are almost certainly more traceable than my Bitcoin, and waaaaay less mobile. If I'm screwed, we're all screwed.

Not sure what part about "This happened" (Not the I put it all in crypto part, or at least that wasn't mentioned by those in this situation.)  you don't get.  But ok.   Hilarious.

Also, Panama Papers.  Look it up.  Quite intriguing read imo.   Either way, I'll stick to what I have.  Some small percent for gambling and if I feel I need to run...  Crypto won't be my saving grace, as it's not.

[LateStarter]

Suppose the scenario arises where all the types of people who own crypto need to flee their country - presumably the US.

They're all heading to Europe, Canada, or the Caribbean where they need cash to set up their apartment, pay immigration lawyers, and buy a mattress to lay on the floor. Thus they're all selling their crypto at the same time.

The sudden wave of selling depletes the value of the crypto to near nothing. This seems like the endgame of using crypto to escape one country and set up shop in another.

Suppose an asteroid hit me in the eye and I couldn't see to type my seed-phrase . . . .

Please - enough of the dystopian fantasies - LOL . . .

So... back to all the real-world applications that are occurring right now to streamline transactions, reduce energy usage, enhance privacy, enhance security, and bring reliable banking services to poor people? I thought it was late 2023 and we've been through all that already, and are falling back on what-if explanations?

1974 TCP/IP
1989 HTTP
1991 WWW
2004 Web 2.0
???? Web 3.0 ?
= 49 years


1979 1G
1979 brief case
1983 brick
1991 2G
1999 Blackberry
2001 3G
2007 Iphone
2009 4G
2021 5G
= 44 years


2008 Bitcoin White Paper
2009 Genesis block
2009 Bitcoin market cap < $1
2010 Pizza Day
2015 Lightning White Paper
2018 Lightning Pizza Day
2023 Bitcoin owners = 219 million (Techopedia)
2023 Bitcoin market cap = $700B
???? Spot ETFs ?
= 15 years


Rome wasn't built in a day. I think it's ticking along ok.

[LateStarter]

Is it illegal for me to pay a builder $50k in cash for replacing my roof in the US ?
Is it illegal for me to buy $50k of Bitcoin peer-to-peer (non-KYC) in the US ?

In any case, the scenario being discussed here is fleeing an authoritarian regime. That being the case, I DGAF about any money laundering laws - the gloves are off.
And, good luck fleeing said authoritarian regime with your suitcase full of "plain ol' cash".

If you go to a US bank, which is KYC, and withdraw $50k this is all fine and legal, but the bank must report the transaction to the federal government. Attempting to spit withdrawals into smaller chucks (less then $10k) to avoid reporting can get you into trouble. This isn't theoretical, it has happened to people.

Then for the roofing business, their cash transactions over $10k have to be reported to the IRS on Form 8300, which includes the information of the person that the cash came from. So if you pay $50k cash for a new roof you can be sure the IRS will be interested who is paying with so much cash and where it came from. Starting in 2024 crypto will also be subject to Form 8300.

Paying for stuff in cash or crypto is fine. But like I said, trying to avoid KYC and/or moving stuff around with the intention of hiding things will likely cause problems.

Fair enough, but that doesn't change my view that Bitcoin is at least as good as any conventional asset for fleeing.

ETA: for the record, I don't think a suitcase of cash is a good escape plan either. Like others have mentioned, offshore accounts are probably the better way (though the US also requires reporting on these, the same reporting is required for large crypto holdings). I'm generally not a fan of these worst case plans and it seems mostly like people living in fear.

So, broadly speaking, the problems being discussed are universal to all significant assets - we agree.
I don't live in fear and have no plans to flee. I was simply responding to the claim that Bitcoin was a useless vehicle if . . .

My point is just that public blockchains are way more traceable than cash.

Except, as you described, in large amounts when the authorities actively take an interest.

And... we've come full-circle back to the question "what is it good for?" And by this I mean what value does it uniquely provide that other assets cannot? Bitcoin being "at least as good as any conventional asset for fleeing" is another way of saying it has failed its primary goals. Not anonymous. Not beyond the reach of government control. Not actually trust-less or disintermediated when used in the real world.

"at least as good as" = "as good as or better". It's generally less traceable and more portable and more universally useful than the conventional alternatives we've discussed - imo. That said, it's not perfect.

If I were worried about the US going full authoritarian, I would establish a bank account in Switzerland or some other non-extradition country. And I would keep a modest stash of physical cash on hand for use while making my escape and maybe bribing people along the way.

I might do something similar. Also, some carefully acquired and mixed, etc. Bitcoin.

If I were buying illicit contraband (say drugs or whatever) and wanted complete privacy, I would absolutely pay in physical cash, rather than having a forever record of my transactions on a blockchain.

Yeah, cash would probably be better - less so as distance between me and the seller increases.

So it's sorta like other assets, but worse. A pain in the ass to use in normal commerce. Requires additional paperwork/reporting for tax purposes. And all my activity is public and can very likely be traced. From my view, the only thing it's good for is speculating on the value of BTC, e.g. line goes up.

My expectation is that it will become a very good store of value and unit of account. However, it won't be those things until it's much bigger. Also, I expect it to become a regular means of exchange for some, though probably not all in my lifetime, if ever.
Meanwhile, I am speculating that it will eventually get there - it will continue to get more widely adopted by individuals, institutions and maybe nations too - and yes, that the number will, consequently, continue to go up as things progress.


If you really want to understand the broader Bitcoiner view, read Saifedean Amous' The Bitcoin Standard, listen to The Saylor Series (at least episodes 1-13), read Jeff Booth's The Price of Tomorrow and his Finding Signal In A Noisy World article, read Lyn Alden's Broken Money. I would expect everyone here to find them interesting even if they disagree with them. At least you'll get to properly understand where a good many Bitcoiners are coming from.
It really is about much more than 'number go up' for many people. Unfortunately, it's just not possible to condense 3 books and a 20 hour discussion into a few pithy forum posts - especially against a barrage of determined opposition.

And please feel free to recommend some material I should look at to challenge my libertarian, hard money, etc. leanings. I'm genuinely interested. I've read quite a bit but I just don't get bigGov and MMT, etc. - it seems like total bullshit - but I'm more than happy to read more. I freely acknowledge that I could be wrong.

[Telecaster]

So... back to all the real-world applications that are occurring right now to streamline transactions, reduce energy usage, enhance privacy, enhance security, and bring reliable banking services to poor people? I thought it was late 2023 and we've been through all that already, and are falling back on what-if explanations?

I think there was a bit of target fixation on a hypothetical scenario.    If I need to flee across borders in some future dystopian scenario maybe Bitcoin is the way best. Shoot, I have no idea.
  Not something I've thought about.    What about the real scenarios?  For example, how is Bitcoin functioning as a peer-to-peer electronic cash transaction system?   Are people using it to make payments the way it was designed to do?   

To become adopted outside of niche speculators, Bitcoin needs to do something better than the regular financial system for some reasonably large percentage of normal users.   

Bitcoin is objectively worse as a payment system for regular transactions. So not that. 
Third party providers like Bitpay make it a lot better, but are not peer-to-peer (the reason for Bitcoin) and add an additional friction layer, which means they are worse too.
Since Bitcoin was created, other solutions to bank the unbanked have exploded in popularity (approaching a billion users).   This lack of adoption indicates Bitcoin is not a good solution for this problem despite the huge potential market.     
Crypto remittances from the US to foreign countries are a tiny fraction of the total, which indicates Bitcoin is not a good solution for this problem either.


Crypto maxis argue one day the Lightning Network will come along and fix many of these problems.  But it hasn't.   It is still a hypothetical solution.   

[LateStarter]

Hilarious.

You're still imagining me showing up with nothing but the clothes on my back (hopefully) and a seed-phrase in my head, and no other forward-planning whatsoever.
Meanwhile, you've spent significant time and energy buying foreign real estate and arranging and funding foreign bank accounts.
It's apples and oranges through and through - and it's laughable.

And, regardless of all the above, your foreign bank accounts and foreign real estate are almost certainly more traceable than my Bitcoin, and waaaaay less mobile. If I'm screwed, we're all screwed.

Not sure what part about "This happened" (Not the I put it all in crypto part, or at least that wasn't mentioned by those in this situation.)  you don't get.  But ok.   Hilarious.

Also, Panama Papers.  Look it up.  Quite intriguing read imo.   Either way, I'll stick to what I have.  Some small percent for gambling and if I feel I need to run...  Crypto won't be my saving grace, as it's not.

What am I supposed to do with a vague reference to "This happened". It's not even clear what's supposed to have happened - it certainly wasn't supported by any context or detail or evidence, etc.

I've read several reports in recent years about people escaping from Syria and, more recently, Ukraine with Bitcoin . . . So what, it's just hearsay unless I unearth and share some good evidence.

Rest assured, I have no plans to flee anywhere. I have no expectation of needing a 'saving grace'. This is waaaaay down on my personal list of concerns and Bitcoin use cases.
I didn't initiate this discussion to champion Bitcoin as the perfect fleeing vehicle. I was simply responding to FINate's claim that Bitcoin was useless in a fleeing scenario.

[Stimpy]

Hilarious.

You're still imagining me showing up with nothing but the clothes on my back (hopefully) and a seed-phrase in my head, and no other forward-planning whatsoever.
Meanwhile, you've spent significant time and energy buying foreign real estate and arranging and funding foreign bank accounts.
It's apples and oranges through and through - and it's laughable.

And, regardless of all the above, your foreign bank accounts and foreign real estate are almost certainly more traceable than my Bitcoin, and waaaaay less mobile. If I'm screwed, we're all screwed.

Not sure what part about "This happened" (Not the I put it all in crypto part, or at least that wasn't mentioned by those in this situation.)  you don't get.  But ok.   Hilarious.

Also, Panama Papers.  Look it up.  Quite intriguing read imo.   Either way, I'll stick to what I have.  Some small percent for gambling and if I feel I need to run...  Crypto won't be my saving grace, as it's not.

What am I supposed to do with a vague reference to "This happened". It's not even clear what's supposed to have happened - it certainly wasn't supported by any context or detail or evidence, etc.

I've read several reports in recent years about people escaping from Syria and, more recently, Ukraine with Bitcoin . . . So what, it's just hearsay unless I unearth and share some good evidence.

Rest assured, I have no plans to flee anywhere. I have no expectation of needing a 'saving grace'. This is waaaaay down on my personal list of concerns and Bitcoin use cases.
I didn't initiate this discussion to champion Bitcoin as the perfect fleeing vehicle. I was simply responding to FINate's claim that Bitcoin was useless in a fleeing scenario.

I'll be honest, it's been what 4 years since all that.   I'd try to dig up the stories but, really don't care to, especially given the time passage.  Hearsay, sure.   For those more recent ones you've read, that is fleeing war, I assume, more so then tyrants. Though the difference is probably fleeting at best.   I am certain someone HAS run with btc in their stash, though I doubt it was new wallet under duress.  But I am also certain that many of them didn't do such a thing.  Who came out ahead.  Probably none of the refugees who didn't already have something set up before hand.

Either way, it IS useless more often to not in a fleeing scenario, there will always an exception, cause humanity is.... weird.  (In a good way!)

[FINate]

If you really want to understand the broader Bitcoiner view, read Saifedean Amous' The Bitcoin Standard, listen to The Saylor Series (at least episodes 1-13), read Jeff Booth's The Price of Tomorrow and his Finding Signal In A Noisy World article, read Lyn Alden's Broken Money. I would expect everyone here to find them interesting even if they disagree with them. At least you'll get to properly understand where a good many Bitcoiners are coming from.
It really is about much more than 'number go up' for many people. Unfortunately, it's just not possible to condense 3 books and a 20 hour discussion into a few pithy forum posts - especially against a barrage of determined opposition.

And please feel free to recommend some material I should look at to challenge my libertarian, hard money, etc. leanings. I'm genuinely interested. I've read quite a bit but I just don't get bigGov and MMT, etc. - it seems like total bullshit - but I'm more than happy to read more. I freely acknowledge that I could be wrong.

I have a CS degree, worked in BigTech for 2 decades, have spent a fair amount of time with encryption technology generally, and have read various crypto whitepapers. Honestly, I'm not going to spent a bunch of time reading more about BTC.

If you're serious about challenging your hard money leanings, then I would suggest A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960. Not easy reading, took me quite some time to work through it, but it goes into granular detail on how hard money contributed to multiple economic depressions until the Federal Reserve was created and then learned how to manage the supply of money. 

[LateStarter]

Hilarious.

You're still imagining me showing up with nothing but the clothes on my back (hopefully) and a seed-phrase in my head, and no other forward-planning whatsoever.
Meanwhile, you've spent significant time and energy buying foreign real estate and arranging and funding foreign bank accounts.
It's apples and oranges through and through - and it's laughable.

And, regardless of all the above, your foreign bank accounts and foreign real estate are almost certainly more traceable than my Bitcoin, and waaaaay less mobile. If I'm screwed, we're all screwed.

Not sure what part about "This happened" (Not the I put it all in crypto part, or at least that wasn't mentioned by those in this situation.)  you don't get.  But ok.   Hilarious.

Also, Panama Papers.  Look it up.  Quite intriguing read imo.   Either way, I'll stick to what I have.  Some small percent for gambling and if I feel I need to run...  Crypto won't be my saving grace, as it's not.

What am I supposed to do with a vague reference to "This happened". It's not even clear what's supposed to have happened - it certainly wasn't supported by any context or detail or evidence, etc.

I've read several reports in recent years about people escaping from Syria and, more recently, Ukraine with Bitcoin . . . So what, it's just hearsay unless I unearth and share some good evidence.

Rest assured, I have no plans to flee anywhere. I have no expectation of needing a 'saving grace'. This is waaaaay down on my personal list of concerns and Bitcoin use cases.
I didn't initiate this discussion to champion Bitcoin as the perfect fleeing vehicle. I was simply responding to FINate's claim that Bitcoin was useless in a fleeing scenario.

I'll be honest, it's been what 4 years since all that.   I'd try to dig up the stories but, really don't care to, especially given the time passage.  Hearsay, sure.   For those more recent ones you've read, that is fleeing war, I assume, more so then tyrants. Though the difference is probably fleeting at best.   I am certain someone HAS run with btc in their stash, though I doubt it was new wallet under duress.  But I am also certain that many of them didn't do such a thing.  Who came out ahead.  Probably none of the refugees who didn't already have something set up before hand.

Either way, it IS useless more often to not in a fleeing scenario, there will always an exception, cause humanity is.... weird.  (In a good way!)

Nothing here has persuaded me AT ALL that Bitcoin is useless in a fleeing scenario.

Again, if I've got time enough to prepare by buying foreign real estate and setting up and funding foreign bank accounts, I've got PLENTY of time to find to some non-KYC Bitcoin, memorise my seed-phrase, and do some mixing or whatever and set something up at my intended destination if I thought it necessary.

And again, if time is very short, and "they" are breathing down my neck, I have virtually ZERO chance of quickly and discreetly buying foreign real estate or setting up and funding foreign bank accounts. I have at least some chance of taking my Bitcoin with me.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree because this is going nowhere. Out.

[LateStarter]

If you really want to understand the broader Bitcoiner view, read Saifedean Amous' The Bitcoin Standard, listen to The Saylor Series (at least episodes 1-13), read Jeff Booth's The Price of Tomorrow and his Finding Signal In A Noisy World article, read Lyn Alden's Broken Money. I would expect everyone here to find them interesting even if they disagree with them. At least you'll get to properly understand where a good many Bitcoiners are coming from.
It really is about much more than 'number go up' for many people. Unfortunately, it's just not possible to condense 3 books and a 20 hour discussion into a few pithy forum posts - especially against a barrage of determined opposition.

And please feel free to recommend some material I should look at to challenge my libertarian, hard money, etc. leanings. I'm genuinely interested. I've read quite a bit but I just don't get bigGov and MMT, etc. - it seems like total bullshit - but I'm more than happy to read more. I freely acknowledge that I could be wrong.

I have a CS degree, worked in BigTech for 2 decades, have spent a fair amount of time with encryption technology generally, and have read various crypto whitepapers. Honestly, I'm not going to spent a bunch of time reading more about BTC.

Fair enough, but you'll have to excuse me if I remind of this reluctance when you next bemoan that "From my view, the only thing it's good for is speculating on the value of BTC, e.g. line goes up".

The drive and enthusiasm for the project has very little to do with CS or the intricacies of the encryption technology - it's great technology and it's very interesting in it's own right but it's not the 'point'.

If you're serious about challenging your hard money leanings, then I would suggest A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960. Not easy reading, took me quite some time to work through it, but it goes into granular detail on how hard money contributed to multiple economic depressions until the Federal Reserve was created and then learned how to manage the supply of money.

I am serious. Thanks, I'll add it to my giant TBR list.

[LateStarter]

Let me put if for you quite simply.  I believe bitcoin will always go on to make a greater ATH.  I believe in Bitcoin as a store of value, I don't believe there is ever going to be an ultimate 'top' for bitcoin because I believe the printed out of thin air fiat currencies we value it in will always devalue over time, this is what ultimately drives capital towards the harder asset which is Bitcoin, the only asset which humans cannot increase the supply of.  Let me say it again, there is no top for bitcoin because there is no bottom for fiat, fiat will always be printed into infinity.

Now, you can argue the timing of peoples investments all you like, yes the people who bought the last ATH are currently 'at loss', but the next ATH will come around and at that moment, nominally the amount of people 'at loss' at the next ATH will be zero.  Yes there will be another 'crash' at some stage, yes people will be at 'loss' for a year or two, but IMO the value of bitcoin will always eventually go up vs printed fiat currencies inflating away their value over time.  This is really all I have to say on the matter as all of this has been covered in the past I'm sure.

Sure, this is true; there's a limited supply of BTC. Just as there's a limited supply of gold, MTG cards, or used tissues signed by Tom Hanks.. But it doesn't follow that the value of those things will go up forever. They also need to have a utility, otherwise you're just paying for the novelty of owning something, which has a pretty limited market.

Utility is in the eye of the beholder. Don't conflate "I see no utility" or "it has no utility for me" with "it has no utility".

Ok. so what is the utility of BTC? Now? and in the future?
What problem does it solve (I assume debasing of fiat?)? How does it solve that, i.e. how will having lots of BTC help me in that situation?
Will we all at some point decide that dollar is worthless and start doing all transactions in BTC? MY boss will pay me btc, i'll buy milk in btc? Is this adopted by the state, or a barter economy? Feel free to correct and educate me here, I'm really curious.

If this is the case, the way I see it this will then come about in two ways;
- we switch suddenly; every BTC-bro instantly become wealthy as they have the only currency. The other 97% of the population have zero wealth overnight..
- there is a transition, were $ convert to BTC. Like the Euro I guess.

scenario 1 I'm already screwed. And far fetched, since any policy that toss 90% of the population into instant poverty seems rather unlikely
Scenario 2 it doesn't matter. I'll just hang onto dollars and wait.

In either case I don't see the point in hording BTC now.

I meant to reply to this but lost track of it yesterday . .

You seem to be anticipating some sort of managed switchover or managed transition. I don't see that at all.

As I wrote in a reply to FINate yesterday:

"My expectation is that it will become a very good store of value and unit of account. However, it won't be those things until it's much bigger. Also, I expect it to become a regular means of exchange for some, though probably not all in my lifetime, if ever.
Meanwhile, I am speculating that it will eventually get there (store of value / unit of account) - it will continue to get more widely adopted by individuals, institutions and maybe nations too - and yes, that the number will, consequently, continue to go up as things progress."

This is an organic growth of Bitcoin - a gradual (probably S-curve) voluntary transition, one step at a time, one person at a time, one institution at a time, 1% allocation at a time, etc. . . .

The reason to buy/hold some Bitcoin now is that the conversion rate is currently $35k = 1BTC.
If the above pans out, in 5 years, 10 years, or whatever:
   $35k will only buy a small fraction of 1BTC;
   The purchasing power of 1BTC today (a decent car) will be greatly increased (a decent house?).
   

Also note: You have repeated a common misunderstanding with "The other 97% of the population have zero wealth overnight.."

The latest latecomers to Bitcoin will lose zero purchasing power in the act of transferring their fiat to Bitcoin. Example: You have $1M in 2030, and $1M could buy a Ferrari - you transfer it to Bitcoin - your Bitcoin will buy that same Ferrari (even if $1M = just 1BTC).
You will have missed out on the purchasing power gains you could have made by buying that 1BTC today for $35k, but Bitcoin hasn't taken anything away from you. You just made a bad decision today.
Of course, I could be wrong, it could all go to zero. In which case, you made a good decision today.

If inflation/debasement continues to be a problem, your $1M (and equivalent BTC) might only buy a Prius in 2030. Again, Bitcoin hasn't taken anything away from you - the $ took it.

[GuitarStv]

Crypto will continue to have a lasting negative impact on the environment as long as it's based on wasteful (by design) proof of work.  That's what it's taking from everyone regardless of pricing whims.

[LateStarter]

Crypto will continue to have a lasting negative impact on the environment as long as it's based on wasteful (by design) proof of work.  That's what it's taking from everyone regardless of pricing whims.

Bitcoin was not designed to 'waste' energy. Whether or not Bitcoin's energy usage is 'wasteful' is just a matter of opinion.

In my opinion, the benefits of proof-of-work significantly outweigh the costs = not a waste.

Bitcoin = 0.23% of worldwide energy production. Scrap Bitcoin and save the world ? It's a rounding error.

[frugledoc]

Crypto will continue to have a lasting negative impact on the environment as long as it's based on wasteful (by design) proof of work.  That's what it's taking from everyone regardless of pricing whims.

Bitcoin was not designed to 'waste' energy. Whether or not Bitcoin's energy usage is 'wasteful' is just a matter of opinion.

In my opinion, the benefits of proof-of-work significantly outweigh the costs = not a waste.

Bitcoin = 0.23% of worldwide energy production. Scrap Bitcoin and save the world ? It's a rounding error.

It’s not a matter of opinion, it’s fact.  Bitcoin is basically a cult, it’s not too late to get out.  Go to r/Buttcoin if you need help.

[Glenstache]

Crypto will continue to have a lasting negative impact on the environment as long as it's based on wasteful (by design) proof of work.  That's what it's taking from everyone regardless of pricing whims.

Bitcoin was not designed to 'waste' energy. Whether or not Bitcoin's energy usage is 'wasteful' is just a matter of opinion.

In my opinion, the benefits of proof-of-work significantly outweigh the costs = not a waste.

Bitcoin = 0.23% of worldwide energy production. Scrap Bitcoin and save the world ? It's a rounding error.

The total electricity consumptiuon of Los Angeles County in 2022 was 68.5 TWh (https://ecdms.energy.ca.gov/elecbycounty.aspx)
The estimated annual energy consumption of BTC in 2022 was 95.5 TWh (from your link)

Comparing to global energy use and having anything but a near-zero percentage indicates that the demand is huge. And total energy demand includes energy use for things not including electricity production, such as driving cars.

In this case, would we say that Los Angeles has a small electricity demand footprint? Is powering all of Los Angeles nearly 1.5x still seem small?

Wheter BTC is worth the energy consumption is subjective and maybe or maybe isn't worth it. However, it is not debateable that it does use a fuckton of electricity.

[GuitarStv]

Whether or not you think bitcoin is a waste of energy based on usefulness is one thing.

What you can't argue though, is that bitcoin was literally designed to waste energy.  That's what proof of work is.  It requires the waste of energy to generate encrypted hex numbers - solving the hash.  Proof of work requires that nodes on a network provide evidence that they have wasted energy through expended computational power in order to achieve (theoretically) decentralized consensus.

[index]

I remain skeptical the governments of the world willingly give up their ability print their own currency and would prevent the rise of an alternate currency. In 1933 the US government confiscated gold. What is to stop governments from confiscating or outlawing the transfer and possession of BTC? The dollar is backed by a lot of guns.

[Telecaster]

I remain skeptical the governments of the world willingly give up their ability print their own currency and would prevent the rise of an alternate currency. In 1933 the US government confiscated gold. What is to stop governments from confiscating or outlawing the transfer and possession of BTC? The dollar is backed by a lot of guns.

I'm skeptical too, but not for those reasons.   In the US, and all other countries as far as I know, you have to pay wages and taxes in legal tender.    That pretty much means alternate currencies can't arise in any meaningful way because you must have legal tender to pay taxes.   

Another reason is the reason why the US confiscated gold in 1933.  It was because the Federal Reserve needed to increase the money supply, but did not have enough gold reserves to do so.  The US isn't on the Bitcoin standard, so it doesn't need to do that any more than it needs to confiscate stocks or bonds. 

But if those reasons weren't enough the biggest obstacle is that for Bitcoin to become accepted as a currency in any meaningful way, it needs to function just as well or better than regular money.  And it objectively doesn't.   Even in niche applications where Bitcoin seemingly has the biggest advantages like cross-border payments and unbanked populations, Bitcoin penetration has been extremely small.   

[LateStarter]

Whether or not you think bitcoin is a waste of energy based on usefulness is one thing.

What you can't argue though, is that bitcoin was literally designed to waste energy.  That's what proof of work is.  It requires the waste of energy to generate encrypted hex numbers - solving the hash.  Proof of work requires that nodes on a network provide evidence that they have wasted energy through expended computational power in order to achieve (theoretically) decentralized consensus.

You can argue that solving the hash, in itself, provides no benefit, but that's missing the point - it's not about solving the hash per se. By doing the work required to solve the hash, the nodes build a 'wall of energy' behind which Bitcoin is secure. Building that 'wall of energy' to secure Bitcoin is the point. The energy wasn't wasted despite the fact that all the nodes did was discover some 'random' hex number.

I could argue that going out for a bike ride is a waste of energy - you start from home and you end up back home, but I'm missing the point - it's not about getting somewhere else. By doing the work required to cycle out and back again, you're burning fat and building your muscles, etc. Keeping fit and healthy is the point. The energy wasn't wasted despite the fact that all you did was ride around in a circle and got nowhere.

[LateStarter]

Crypto will continue to have a lasting negative impact on the environment as long as it's based on wasteful (by design) proof of work.  That's what it's taking from everyone regardless of pricing whims.

Bitcoin was not designed to 'waste' energy. Whether or not Bitcoin's energy usage is 'wasteful' is just a matter of opinion.

In my opinion, the benefits of proof-of-work significantly outweigh the costs = not a waste.

Bitcoin = 0.23% of worldwide energy production. Scrap Bitcoin and save the world ? It's a rounding error.

The total electricity consumptiuon of Los Angeles County in 2022 was 68.5 TWh (https://ecdms.energy.ca.gov/elecbycounty.aspx)
The estimated annual energy consumption of BTC in 2022 was 95.5 TWh (from your link)

Comparing to global energy use and having anything but a near-zero percentage indicates that the demand is huge. And total energy demand includes energy use for things not including electricity production, such as driving cars.

In this case, would we say that Los Angeles has a small electricity demand footprint? Is powering all of Los Angeles nearly 1.5x still seem small?

Wheter BTC is worth the energy consumption is subjective and maybe or maybe isn't worth it. However, it is not debateable that it does use a fuckton of electricity.

Show me where I claimed that Bitcoin doesn't use a lot of electricity.

My point was that the bleating about Bitcoin destroying the planet is often overblown - it's 0.23% of the total energy 'problem'. If saving the planet is really your goal, your attention should be on the bigger things. Seems to me that saving the planet often isn't the goal here - complaining about Bitcoin is the real goal, and any jab will do . . .

[LateStarter]

I remain skeptical the governments of the world willingly give up their ability print their own currency and would prevent the rise of an alternate currency. In 1933 the US government confiscated gold. What is to stop governments from confiscating or outlawing the transfer and possession of BTC? The dollar is backed by a lot of guns.

How would this work in practise ? Presumably, a significant% of the population would have to have a significant% of their assets in Bitcoin to warrant such drastic action. I doubt it would go down well with the populace. And, presumably, any action would have to be heavy handed to be effective.

Fuck that government - that's outright authoritarian repression. Looks like we'd better restart the fleeing scenarios discussion . . .

[LateStarter]

I remain skeptical the governments of the world willingly give up their ability print their own currency and would prevent the rise of an alternate currency. In 1933 the US government confiscated gold. What is to stop governments from confiscating or outlawing the transfer and possession of BTC? The dollar is backed by a lot of guns.

I'm skeptical too, but not for those reasons.   In the US, and all other countries as far as I know, you have to pay wages and taxes in legal tender.    That pretty much means alternate currencies can't arise in any meaningful way because you must have legal tender to pay taxes.

Wages ? That's a new one on me.
Note my many posts saying that I don't foresee the demise of the USD (or any other significant currency) for many years, if ever. Bitcoin doesn't need to replace the USD. Bitcoin and USD, etc. can co-exist for a looong time. No issues with paying taxes - use your USD/GBP/whatever.

Another reason is the reason why the US confiscated gold in 1933.  It was because the Federal Reserve needed to increase the money supply, but did not have enough gold reserves to do so.  The US isn't on the Bitcoin standard, so it doesn't need to do that any more than it needs to confiscate stocks or bonds. 

But if those reasons weren't enough the biggest obstacle is that for Bitcoin to become accepted as a currency in any meaningful way, it needs to function just as well or better than regular money.  And it objectively doesn't.   Even in niche applications where Bitcoin seemingly has the biggest advantages like cross-border payments and unbanked populations, Bitcoin penetration has been extremely small.

Still focused on 'means of exchange' ? Speculation on growth - leading to Store of Value and Unit of Account is where it's at, especially for us fortunate ones in the wealthier nations.
The 'means of exchange' will start, and is starting, in the poorer places - they need something better than their weak currencies asap. I haven't tried to track progress recently and a quick look revealed the usual vague 'crypto' references and lots of both-ways bias. Actual progress being made in this area ? I don't know.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Whether or not you think bitcoin is a waste of energy based on usefulness is one thing.

What you can't argue though, is that bitcoin was literally designed to waste energy.  That's what proof of work is.  It requires the waste of energy to generate encrypted hex numbers - solving the hash.  Proof of work requires that nodes on a network provide evidence that they have wasted energy through expended computational power in order to achieve (theoretically) decentralized consensus.

A blockchain reward goes to the winner.  The other nodes do not "provide evidence that they have wasted energy".  They lose silently, without providing any evidence they did so.  The energy did not get thrown away, as you keep claiming with the word "waste", but rather went to securing the blockchain.  Bitcoin mining has to run at scale, at full speed, to prevent any smaller set of computers from creating a fake blockchain.

[FINate]

Whether or not you think bitcoin is a waste of energy based on usefulness is one thing.

What you can't argue though, is that bitcoin was literally designed to waste energy.  That's what proof of work is.  It requires the waste of energy to generate encrypted hex numbers - solving the hash.  Proof of work requires that nodes on a network provide evidence that they have wasted energy through expended computational power in order to achieve (theoretically) decentralized consensus.

A blockchain reward goes to the winner.  The other nodes do not "provide evidence that they have wasted energy".  They lose silently, without providing any evidence they did so.  The energy did not get thrown away, as you keep claiming with the word "waste", but rather went to securing the blockchain.  Bitcoin mining has to run at scale, at full speed, to prevent any smaller set of computers from creating a fake blockchain.

No, waste is an accurate word. Very close to 100% of the energy used by a CPU gets converted to heat. There's no physical end product coming out the end of a computer, just information. The heat generated is considered "waste heat" and it's a huge problem for data centers. A lot has gone into how to move all this waste heat, which is why large data centers are often located near bodies of cold water. Bitcoin's 95.5 TWh of energy consumption in 2022 pretty much all went up in heat. Physically speaking, it's no different than running a huge army of space heaters. Yes, it solved some math problems along the way and secured the block chain, but is that really worth the enormous energy expenditure?