Distancing myself from Bogleheads

[ImCheap]

I was booted for inciting hostility towards other members.   

Another BH asked a question about if he or she thought a toy rental service for their kid made sense.   I just about lost it.

BH for investing
MMM for lifestyle




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I recall that one!

[Laserjet3051]

Nisiprius is great. I also like Kevin M, KlangFool, livesoft, and many others.

Agreed. Some truly brilliant minds on BH. Funny, I find myself getting closer and closer to BH over time.

Many of the older posters on BH have the wisdom one gets from time; having gone through many business cycles that one cannot have as a young investor. One of the [paraphrased] sayings I picked up on BH that rings true is: When the tide goes out, we will see who is swimming naked.

(Some 100% equity warriors may in fact find out that they overestimated their risk tolerance)

[Paul der Krake]

Nisiprius is great. I also like Kevin M, KlangFool, livesoft, and many others.

Agreed. Some truly brilliant minds on BH. Funny, I find myself getting closer and closer to BH over time.

Many of the older posters on BH have the wisdom one gets from time; having gone through many business cycles that one cannot have as a young investor. One of the [paraphrased] sayings I picked up on BH that rings true is: When the tide goes out, we will see who is swimming naked.

(Some 100% equity warriors may in fact find out that they overestimated their risk tolerance)

I think that's a natural progression for any maturing investor. I used to scoff at the threads of people with a 50/50 allocation or discussing annuities. Now that I'm more established I see value in not blindly recommending 100% VTSAX to everyone. The collective wisdom of people with decades of experience is something that's missing here on MMM.

One of the greatest things about the BH forums is that it's been around for a long time, and even longer if you're willing to do some archeology in the old diehards posts. It's fascinating to go back and read posts from people discussing market conditions from back when I was in middle school, knowing what ended up happening.

[DieHard_772]

Nisiprius is great. I also like Kevin M, KlangFool, livesoft, and many others.

Agreed. Some truly brilliant minds on BH. Funny, I find myself getting closer and closer to BH over time.

Many of the older posters on BH have the wisdom one gets from time; having gone through many business cycles that one cannot have as a young investor. One of the [paraphrased] sayings I picked up on BH that rings true is: When the tide goes out, we will see who is swimming naked.

(Some 100% equity warriors may in fact find out that they overestimated their risk tolerance)

I think that's a natural progression for any maturing investor. I used to scoff at the threads of people with a 50/50 allocation or discussing annuities. Now that I'm more established I see value in not blindly recommending 100% VTSAX to everyone. The collective wisdom of people with decades of experience is something that's missing here on MMM.

One of the greatest things about the BH forums is that it's been around for a long time, and even longer if you're willing to do some archeology in the old diehards posts. It's fascinating to go back and read posts from people discussing market conditions from back when I was in middle school, knowing what ended up happening.

Very good point. 
Everyone has something of value to offer... many Bogleheads have been investing for 10, 20, 30 years or longer... never underestimate the value of accumulated experience!

[RedditLocked]

I first visited Bogleheads about five years ago.  I was out of my league.  I posted I'd like to FIRE on about $100 a day.  Needless to say i was laughed off the site.  At the time I had about enough saved to draw $100 a day with 4% withdrawal.   They were right in my case, $100 a day isn't enough for us to retire comfortably in the US.  Working towards $200 a day.  I still have an account at Bogleheads,  i can almost belong now.

You can't retire comfortably with $36000/yr? I guess it depends on your definition of comfortable, but MMM lives under 30k with a household of three, doesn't he?

[TomTX]

$20 on lunch - are you crazy? lol.

Is that collectively, or $20 EACH?

[Bateaux]

I first visited Bogleheads about five years ago.  I was out of my league.  I posted I'd like to FIRE on about $100 a day.  Needless to say i was laughed off the site.  At the time I had about enough saved to draw $100 a day with 4% withdrawal.   They were right in my case, $100 a day isn't enough for us to retire comfortably in the US.  Working towards $200 a day.  I still have an account at Bogleheads,  i can almost belong now.

You can't retire comfortably with $36000/yr? I guess it depends on your definition of comfortable, but MMM lives under 30k with a household of three, doesn't he?

My post FIRE lifestyle will possibly exceed my preFIRE.  I'm saving a huge amount of money right now and have for a very long time.  I'm in my Mustacian phase now in order to spend,more time and money in the future.  It's up to individuals when they choose to FIRE.  Some when they reach minimum sustainability, some when a part time gig can support them.  For many, we've worked too long at 48.  We've far exceeded our minimum level of FIRE.  We've exceeded in passive income our take home pay from our jobs.  So now our net worth is growing at a rate greater than our take home pay when you add our monthly contributions to the passive gain.  MMM himself is making far more now he ever did as a full time worker.   

[Lyssa]

Agreed with everything above.

I'd like to add that I prefer MMM because I find it difficult to relate to a lot of the Bogleheads' view of their wife as an additional child (most likely only in the financial sense and most likely completely the right call against the background of their marriage). While there are some really knowledgable female posters at BH the prevailing attitute and mindset is by far that of an elderly, wealthy, male head of the family providing for the rest.

Not wrong for them, just too far removed from my reality.

The Mustachians who are married or in a committed relationship seem to view their spouse as capable of pulling their own weight and more than that if necessary.

[Bateaux]

Agreed with everything above.

I'd like to add that I prefer MMM because I find it difficult to relate to a lot of the Bogleheads' view of their wife as an additional child (most likely only in the financial sense and most likely completely the right call against the background of their marriage). While there are some really knowledgable female posters at BH the prevailing attitute and mindset is by far that of an elderly, wealthy, male head of the family providing for the rest.

Not wrong for them, just too far removed from my reality.

The Mustachians who are married or in a committed relationship seem to view their spouse as capable of pulling their own weight and more than that if necessary.

Unfortunately the same attitude has carried down to many younger people in this country.  I'd hoped that younger generations would be more progressive.  The reality is that most aren't.

[Fomerly known as something]

Agreed with everything above.

I'd like to add that I prefer MMM because I find it difficult to relate to a lot of the Bogleheads' view of their wife as an additional child (most likely only in the financial sense and most likely completely the right call against the background of their marriage). While there are some really knowledgable female posters at BH the prevailing attitute and mindset is by far that of an elderly, wealthy, male head of the family providing for the rest.

Not wrong for them, just too far removed from my reality.

The Mustachians who are married or in a committed relationship seem to view their spouse as capable of pulling their own weight and more than that if necessary.

Unfortunately the same attitude has carried down to many younger people in this country.  I'd hoped that younger generations would be more progressive.  The reality is that most aren't.

Yes, I get questions all the time about how did I get so good with money.  And hear comments about how yeah but my wife will spend it.

[TomTX]

I first visited Bogleheads about five years ago.  I was out of my league.  I posted I'd like to FIRE on about $100 a day.  Needless to say i was laughed off the site.  At the time I had about enough saved to draw $100 a day with 4% withdrawal.   They were right in my case, $100 a day isn't enough for us to retire comfortably in the US.  Working towards $200 a day.  I still have an account at Bogleheads,  i can almost belong now.

You can't retire comfortably with $36000/yr? I guess it depends on your definition of comfortable, but MMM lives under 30k with a household of three, doesn't he?

More like $25k, but with a fully paid-for house, low property taxes, low utilities (due to usage, great insulation, reasonable climate and appliance efficiency) - and some travel/vehicles paid by the blog (or outright freebies like an e-bike, IIRC) and not counted in his total. Heck, he dumped homeowner's insurance as well.

If I subtract out to get an equivalent cost, I'm at that cost level. As it is, I'm paying mortgage, property tax, more on utilities*, insurance, etc on top.

*Insulation, appliances, etc for me are tolerable, but not nearly as efficient as they could be.

[jim555]

Paid off home and car in a LCOL area and it is easy to live on very little.

[Undecided]

Agreed with everything above.

I'd like to add that I prefer MMM because I find it difficult to relate to a lot of the Bogleheads' view of their wife as an additional child (most likely only in the financial sense and most likely completely the right call against the background of their marriage). While there are some really knowledgable female posters at BH the prevailing attitute and mindset is by far that of an elderly, wealthy, male head of the family providing for the rest.

Not wrong for them, just too far removed from my reality.

The Mustachians who are married or in a committed relationship seem to view their spouse as capable of pulling their own weight and more than that if necessary.

I don't disagree with your observation, but many topics are covered in much greater depth on the Bogleheads forum than here, and I found that once I leaned to disregard the tilt of the posters' presumptions and individual circumstances, there was still much to learn. Then again, I don't share the prevailing "reality" here, either, but also find this site helpful. 

[lordmetroid]

I am not a Buy & Hold kind of guy. I manage my risk by reacting to the current trend and sell all assets before they depreciate too much. Then when the trend has shifted in favor of appreciating prizes, I buy again. I will never time the perfect bottom or top and my yield may be lower than an index-follower for any given year but that is the price to pay for the lower risk.

Buy & Hold is more like Buy & Prey, the market can go similar ways as Japan or 1930. It is not something I could live with.

[EnjoyIt]

I am not a Buy & Hold kind of guy. I manage my risk by reacting to the current trend and sell all assets before they depreciate too much. Then when the trend has shifted in favor of appreciating prizes, I buy again. I will never time the perfect bottom or top and my yield may be lower than an index-follower for any given year but that is the price to pay for the lower risk.

Buy & Hold is more like Buy & Prey, the market can go similar ways as Japan or 1930. It is not something I could live with.

So are you holding, buying or selling right now?  Is the market close to its top or do we have more room to grow?
Many people and economists have been saying for years that the market is overvalued yet the market has continued to grow.

Research shows that people who try and time the tops and bottoms miss out on significant gains and fall short of the buy and prey you described.  Your money and your choice, I just wanted to ask some questions and share some facts.

[undercover]

I am not a Buy & Hold kind of guy. I manage my risk by reacting to the current trend and sell all assets before they depreciate too much. Then when the trend has shifted in favor of appreciating prizes, I buy again. I will never time the perfect bottom or top and my yield may be lower than an index-follower for any given year but that is the price to pay for the lower risk.

Buy & Hold is more like Buy & Prey, the market can go similar ways as Japan or 1930. It is not something I could live with.

You missed April Fools by like 22 days.

[Dicey]

I am not a Buy & Hold kind of guy. I manage my risk by reacting to the current trend and sell all assets before they depreciate too much. Then when the trend has shifted in favor of appreciating prizes, I buy again. I will never time the perfect bottom or top and my yield may be lower than an index-follower for any given year but that is the price to pay for the lower risk.

Buy & Hold is more like Buy & Prey, the market can go similar ways as Japan or 1930. It is not something I could live with.

You missed April Fools by like 22 days.

LOL!

[TomTX]

Agreed with everything above.

I'd like to add that I prefer MMM because I find it difficult to relate to a lot of the Bogleheads' view of their wife as an additional child (most likely only in the financial sense and most likely completely the right call against the background of their marriage). While there are some really knowledgable female posters at BH the prevailing attitute and mindset is by far that of an elderly, wealthy, male head of the family providing for the rest.

Not wrong for them, just too far removed from my reality.

The Mustachians who are married or in a committed relationship seem to view their spouse as capable of pulling their own weight and more than that if necessary.

I don't disagree with your observation, but many topics are covered in much greater depth on the Bogleheads forum than here, and I found that once I leaned to disregard the tilt of the posters' presumptions and individual circumstances, there was still much to learn. Then again, I don't share the prevailing "reality" here, either, but also find this site helpful.

Agreed, Bogleheads tend to have a great wealth of information available and typically can go more in depth than MMM.

...which actually reflects the (general) attitude toward money.

MMM: Once you have enough, you can pull the ripcord.
Bogleheads: Mmmm... better get some more to be safe. And some more to be really safe. And some more to leave a Legacy.

;)

[jim555]

MMM: Once you have enough, you can pull the ripcord.
Bogleheads: Mmmm... better get some more to be safe. And some more to be really safe. And some more to leave a Legacy.

To me leaving a legacy represents a failure in planning.

[h82goslw]

I am not a Buy & Hold kind of guy. I manage my risk by reacting to the current trend and sell all assets before they depreciate too much. Then when the trend has shifted in favor of appreciating prizes, I buy again. I will never time the perfect bottom or top and my yield may be lower than an index-follower for any given year but that is the price to pay for the lower risk.

Buy & Hold is more like Buy & Prey, the market can go similar ways as Japan or 1930. It is not something I could live with.

So are you holding, buying or selling right now?  Is the market close to its top or do we have more room to grow?
Many people and economists have been saying for years that the market is overvalued yet the market has continued to grow.

Research shows that people who try and time the tops and bottoms miss out on significant gains and fall short of the buy and prey you described.  Your money and your choice, I just wanted to ask some questions and share some facts.

Posting to follow Lordmetroid's response as EnjoyIt asked exactly what I was thinking. 

[scantee]

Agreed with everything above.

I'd like to add that I prefer MMM because I find it difficult to relate to a lot of the Bogleheads' view of their wife as an additional child (most likely only in the financial sense and most likely completely the right call against the background of their marriage). While there are some really knowledgable female posters at BH the prevailing attitute and mindset is by far that of an elderly, wealthy, male head of the family providing for the rest.

Not wrong for them, just too far removed from my reality.

The Mustachians who are married or in a committed relationship seem to view their spouse as capable of pulling their own weight and more than that if necessary.

This is the main reason why I don't spend much time at BH even though I acknowledge that as a whole it's a good site. A man in his late 50's, with an eight-figure net worth, two adult children from his first wife, and three young children from his second wife who is three decades his junior, wondering if he should quit now or keep working another five years to pad an additional $7MM onto his liquid net worth, is living a life so different from my own that it is hard for me to get much out of their advice.

Does BH ban with abandon? I'm surprised by the number of people who say they've been banned from there. I've never been banned from an online space and I'm all of a sudden feeling the loss of that badge of honor. Maybe I need to head over there and stir some shit up...

[Mika M]

I've seen the following hierarchy of forum ideologies related to the funds needed to FIRE on other threads, and generally agree:

ERE -- home of the bare minimalists, requires willingness to question EVERYTHING, spend the absolute minimum and probably not live in a mainstream house or apartment

MMM -- mostly serious optimizers/hefty savers, often with savings rates of 50%+, quite a few targeting early retirement in 30s and 40s, often with 3-4% or higher SWRs, given the assumption that additional income streams will come along easily if needed

early-retirement.org -- more mainstream LBYMers, but with higher expenses/lower savings rates, retirement before age 50 is rare and if you plan to do so with higher than a 2-3% SWR people will generally say you are being too risky

Bogleheads -- most mainstream/conservative of the lot, focus on indexing and reducing fees/maximizing wealth growth and not necessarily early retirement.  Lots of large nesteggs and very low SWRs.

Nice list. DH and I fall just about in the middle (though probably a bit closer to early-retirement.org in lifestyle and spending levels). We envision being able to eventually live off less than 40k a year but being realistic about our risk-tolerance levels, settled on about 1.5m for our goal number to include a healthy buffer for some of life's surprises. We both have great salaries for very cush and tolerable jobs so we're content to coast for now... (a few years in we've reached about 40% of our goal)

[DieHard_772]

That said, to me it seemed like all they are obsessed with their risk tolerance.  The way they discussed it, it started to sound like risk tolerance was some sort of tender, swollen joint that constantly needed to be soothed.  I mean come on.  Many of the posters there have several million net worth providing a margin of safety far exceeding anything they will need in their lifetimes.  At a certain point they are really just indulging their emotions and nothing more. 

Yeah, my experience with Bogleheads is that they are very sensitive to risk tolerance... Yet I found this very refreshing, because I find it a useful tool to keep in mind when it comes to investing. 

Also, many Bogleheads are older, and your mindset can shift as you start to get away from wealth accumulation and be in the spending period.

I'm grateful to Bogleheads because it has taught me a lot of what I know.  They are even responsible for me knowing about MMM.

[hucktard]

$500K net worth? Or liquid savings plus a paid off house? $500K net worth is not enough for my family of four to retire on, we need about three times that. A decent family sized house in our area starts at about $450K. If we had a paid off house I think I would want an additional million to truly retire.

$500K net worth is only ~$20K a year which seems doable for a single person, but really tight for even two people if you have to pay rent or a mortgage.

[OurTown]

You need 300x your monthly expenses if you follow the 4% rule.

$2,000 per month expenses = $600,000 stache.
$3,000 per month expenses = $900,000 stache.
$4,000 per month expenses = $1,200,000 stache.

And so on. 

I like the Bogleheads just fine, but they do seem to have a more expensive standard of living than I will ever need.  If the average Joe six-pack Boglehead need $3M to retire, I guess his expenses are $10K per month? 

[fuzzy math]

They admire Peter

Woah, why so formal? (Freaks the millenials out)

:p I seriously had to stop for a moment and recognize that it's Pete's full name

[Travis]

I enjoyed many years on BH, contributed a fair bit as well. But.........I got the boot.

It is a great site with a lot of good people, it was a blessing in disguise getting the boot, I spent way to much time typing on BH, learned a lot and think I passed on a bunch. I still read many of the threads today.

I do wonder however when you look at some of those high post counts, the ones who seem to post everyday if they have a life outside of Bogleheads. Don't get me wrong, the post are great and mostly well thought out but man it has to a 8-10hour gig everyday.

 Edited,  removed  nasty government comment, apologize  to who may have took offense..











 

When I got started here I was referred to BH in order to sort out my criminally complex actively-managed portfolio.  The depth of the technical information for index investing, taxes, and other financial matters is definitely there.  I try to spend time over there just perusing the topics, but I can't keep up.  I would have to spend the bulk of my day just on the forum to read it all. Here our community is small enough that I can find what I'm looking for (technical information and entertainment) with no more than a couple hours a day (and usually less).

[StockBeard]

Anyone on here agree that 500K is not a lot of money? Thats what I was told.

I disagree, but I guess it depends how the question was asked.

Does 500K bring you FI? Not for some people.
But does that amount bring you significantly closer to FI? YES! If your target is 5M, which frankly is a lot, this puts you 10% closer to your goal. That's insanely good. If you're more mustachian and target something between 500k and 1M, that's more than halfway there!

I actually had the same discussion with a good friend, who told me: "you and I both know that 1 million dollars is nothing". I strongly disagreed with him and went on explaining that even with the most lavish lifestyle he could think of, if he received $1million tomorrow, this would literally shave decades of work time for him.

Personally, I consider any number representing more than 1% of my target as huge.

So, yes, 500K is a lot. Unless your target is more than 50 millions.

[DieHard_772]

Personally, I consider any number representing more than 1% of my target as huge.

Hmm, good point, I like it.

[lordmetroid]

I am not a Buy & Hold kind of guy. I manage my risk by reacting to the current trend and sell all assets before they depreciate too much. Then when the trend has shifted in favor of appreciating prizes, I buy again. I will never time the perfect bottom or top and my yield may be lower than an index-follower for any given year but that is the price to pay for the lower risk.

Buy & Hold is more like Buy & Prey, the market can go similar ways as Japan or 1930. It is not something I could live with.

So are you holding, buying or selling right now?  Is the market close to its top or do we have more room to grow?
Many people and economists have been saying for years that the market is overvalued yet the market has continued to grow.

Research shows that people who try and time the tops and bottoms miss out on significant gains and fall short of the buy and prey you described.  Your money and your choice, I just wanted to ask some questions and share some facts.

I am holding right now and have been holding since Brexit(2016-06-24). I do not try to forecast the market, I have no idea where the market is going tomorrow or a year from now. I only react to the market, I do not try to time the tops and bottoms, I do not need to make money all the time and I will not get all available gains. If prices depreciate to my exit level I will sell my current position.

Trading is not for everybody but it suits my personality better than buy & hold.

[surfhb]

I am not a Buy & Hold kind of guy. I manage my risk by reacting to the current trend and sell all assets before they depreciate too much. Then when the trend has shifted in favor of appreciating prizes, I buy again. I will never time the perfect bottom or top and my yield may be lower than an index-follower for any given year but that is the price to pay for the lower risk.

Buy & Hold is more like Buy & Prey, the market can go similar ways as Japan or 1930. It is not something I could live with.

So are you holding, buying or selling right now?  Is the market close to its top or do we have more room to grow?
Many people and economists have been saying for years that the market is overvalued yet the market has continued to grow.

Research shows that people who try and time the tops and bottoms miss out on significant gains and fall short of the buy and prey you described.  Your money and your choice, I just wanted to ask some questions and share some facts.

I am holding right now and have been holding since Brexit(2016-06-24). I do not try to forecast the market, I have no idea where the market is going tomorrow or a year from now. I only react to the market, I do not try to time the tops and bottoms, I do not need to make money all the time and I will not get all available gains. If prices depreciate to my exit level I will sell my current position.

Trading is not for everybody but it suits my personality better than buy & hold.

Can I ask your age, how long you have been trading and what your ROI is at this point?

[EnjoyIt]

I am not a Buy & Hold kind of guy. I manage my risk by reacting to the current trend and sell all assets before they depreciate too much. Then when the trend has shifted in favor of appreciating prizes, I buy again. I will never time the perfect bottom or top and my yield may be lower than an index-follower for any given year but that is the price to pay for the lower risk.

Buy & Hold is more like Buy & Prey, the market can go similar ways as Japan or 1930. It is not something I could live with.

So are you holding, buying or selling right now?  Is the market close to its top or do we have more room to grow?
Many people and economists have been saying for years that the market is overvalued yet the market has continued to grow.

Research shows that people who try and time the tops and bottoms miss out on significant gains and fall short of the buy and prey you described.  Your money and your choice, I just wanted to ask some questions and share some facts.

I am holding right now and have been holding since Brexit(2016-06-24). I do not try to forecast the market, I have no idea where the market is going tomorrow or a year from now. I only react to the market, I do not try to time the tops and bottoms, I do not need to make money all the time and I will not get all available gains. If prices depreciate to my exit level I will sell my current position.

Trading is not for everybody but it suits my personality better than buy & hold.

May I ask what yu did in 2011 when the markets tanked 15%?  Did you sell or did you continue buying?
How much does the market have to go down before you choose to sell?
How much more does it have to go down before you buy again?

[Reynold]

You can't retire comfortably with $36000/yr? I guess it depends on your definition of comfortable, but MMM lives under 30k with a household of three, doesn't he?

My recent projections on health care expenses (premiums plus out of pocket) for myself and DW once I no longer have employer provided insurance are about $30k/year.  And neither of us has super expensive ongoing issues like cancer or dialysis, that is based on just what we've had going on for the last few years.  Both insurance premiums and "stuff that seems to happen with age" for someone in our age bracket seem to be a lot higher than MMM and his family have experienced.  So I certainly wouldn't want to retire with only $36k/year of income, no pension and years from Social Security.  I also don't want to try to bring our income down to the high subsidy level in retirement, both because we may spend as much or more than we are now with increased travel and because I wouldn't count on the exact Obamacare subsidy system surviving for the next decade.  Recent double digit insurance increases in multiple markets, especially rural/LCOL ones, make me think that system isn't stable yet, even aside from political issues.   

On the original topic, though, I haven't looked the Bogleheads site as I've tended to be able to get the answers I want here, but I probably should. 

[StockBeard]

My recent projections on health care expenses (premiums plus out of pocket) for myself and DW once I no longer have employer provided insurance are about $30k/year.  And neither of us has super expensive ongoing issues like cancer or dialysis, that is based on just what we've had going on for the last few years.

This sounds crazy to me. We paid a total of 13K over the past 12 months for a family of 5(premiums + out of pocket), and that includes a very difficult pregnancy with long hospital stays + a preemie.

I'm not pretending your numbers are inaccurate, I have to assume my employer's plan is really good? Either way, glad to be moving to a country with ok health insurance soon.

[Gin1984]

My recent projections on health care expenses (premiums plus out of pocket) for myself and DW once I no longer have employer provided insurance are about $30k/year.  And neither of us has super expensive ongoing issues like cancer or dialysis, that is based on just what we've had going on for the last few years.

This sounds crazy to me. We paid a total of 13K over the past 12 months for a family of 5(premiums + out of pocket), and that includes a very difficult pregnancy with long hospital stays + a preemie.

I'm not pretending your numbers are inaccurate, I have to assume my employer's plan is really good? Either way, glad to be moving to a country with ok health insurance soon.

Between my employer and myself, my HDHP with an OOPM of $5000 and deductible of $2600 is $16,000/year.

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk

[Quillson]

When I was calculating the cost of healthcare in our 50s and 60s to determine the effects on total FIRE amount, I used this website, which shows how it currently increases by age.

https://www.valuepenguin.com/how-age-affects-health-insurance-costs

These numbers are average, my state happens to be higher. So without subsidies for a 64 year old, $600/month each and $6,000 deductibles and $12,000 OOP, so $26,400/year.

Then Trumpcare was increasing the max for a 64 year old from 3 times the 21 year old rate, which is the limit for Obamacare, to 5 times. So now $1,000/month each and OOP = $36,000/year. Then you would get $8,000 tax credits so $28,000/year.

We are paying almost nothing for employer provided healthcare.

[maizefolk]

When I was calculating the cost of healthcare in our 50s and 60s to determine the effects on total FIRE amount, I used this website, which shows how it currently increases by age.

https://www.valuepenguin.com/how-age-affects-health-insurance-costs

These numbers are average, my state happens to be higher. So without subsidies for a 64 year old, $600/month each and $6,000 deductibles and $12,000 OOP, so $26,400/year.

Then Trumpcare was increasing the max for a 64 year old from 3 times the 21 year old rate, which is the limit for Obamacare, to 5 times. So now $1,000/month each and OOP = $36,000/year. Then you would get $8,000 tax credits so $28,000/year.

We are paying almost nothing for employer provided healthcare.

I don't quite follow your math here. But assuming the plans you are looking at are HSA compatible, the out of pocket maximum is capped at no more than $13,100 for a family. This is entirely separate from the issue if the maximum ratio of premiums between a 21 year old and a 64 year old. If that goes away or is raised, your premiums at 64 might go up, but the OOP max wouldn't.

Also usually at least, the deductible counts towards your out of pocket maximum. So in your first example your maximum spend would be $600*12 = $7200 in premiums + $12,000 OOP so $19,200/year not $26,400. And it's quite possible you wouldn't hit the OOP max every year.

If premiums double after the ratio of 21 year old to 64 year old premiums increases and the insurance company raises your OOP max to the greatest they can have and retain HSA eligibility, that puts you at $1200/month*12= $14,400 in premiums + $13,100 = $27,500. Which is a lot. But still significantly less than $36,000. And again, you may not hit your OOP max every year.

[Bateaux]

My whole FIRE plan was amended after the Fall election.   Health-care being the primary reason.   Time will tell but we've possibly all had years added on to our working life to pay for future health-care

[Quillson]

I don't quite follow your math here.

Sorry, was calculating for 2 people. I was calculating the max expenses for a year. So $600x2x12 + OOP. I just used $12,000 for OOP but I do believe you are right that it's $13k+ for a silver plan.

I really think we would end up paying OOP max most years. Regular diagnostic tests for serious issues that are genetic on both sides of the family add up. It doesn't matter that both of us are incredibly healthy and fit. And surprise for us, most of the genetic issues didn't show up in family members until they were over 50.

[maizefolk]

Gotcha. Yes, for whatever reason I read $600 as the cost of a policy covering your household, not each individually. Makes more sense now.

[Laserjet3051]

My whole FIRE plan was amended after the Fall election.   Health-care being the primary reason.   Time will tell but we've possibly all had years added on to our working life to pay for future health-care

Actually, I expect my health insurance premiums to go down moving forward. Previously, buying a policy on the open market required, under ACA rules, everything along with the kitchen sink to be included/covered. As such requirements slough off, I expect to buy a less expensive policy that meets my family's needs. My premiums are currently >$16,000/year, so with out of pocket costs, $20K/year is a reasonable estimate of total costs. Hoping/expecting that the new path forward allows me the possibility to buy a more practical level of coverage.

[Quillson]

My whole FIRE plan was amended after the Fall election.   Health-care being the primary reason.   Time will tell but we've possibly all had years added on to our working life to pay for future health-care

Yeah, health insurance rates with or without the ACA really take off in your 50s and 60s. But the ACA removed annual and lifetime maximums as well as pre-existing conditions, which helped prevent losing your insurance when sick, or being unable to find coverage later, or even hitting the annual or lifetime maximum during your treatment. It was nice knowing there were subsidies in case of tragedy. We don't like the sounds of high risk pools - they don't sound very stable.
 
We're uncomfortable pulling the plug on high income until we know we can make it to Medicare - assuming it exists as it does today. We'll have to see where the healthcare discussion goes for now. Because the last thing I want to do while dealing with cancer or stroke in myself or my spouse is to find another source of income to cover higher premiums or loss of coverage. Once Medicare kicks in, we're totally fine.
 
Sorry to hijack the thread. Although it does explain why I'm leaning more toward the Boglehead numbers now that the ACA safety net may be removed.

[Fishingmn]

I don't quite follow your math here.

Sorry, was calculating for 2 people. I was calculating the max expenses for a year. So $600x2x12 + OOP. I just used $12,000 for OOP but I do believe you are right that it's $13k+ for a silver plan.

I really think we would end up paying OOP max most years. Regular diagnostic tests for serious issues that are genetic on both sides of the family add up. It doesn't matter that both of us are incredibly healthy and fit. And surprise for us, most of the genetic issues didn't show up in family members until they were over 50.

You also need to add in costs for dental and vision.

Right now we get no subsidies ages 55,54 and I budget $18k for medical, $1k for dental and $500 for vision. In reality I hope my medical number is $3-5k on the high side but would rather budget on the high side and expected increases in future years.