2023 Chevy Bolt

[JLee]

The difference between the Bolt EV and the highest scoring mass market EV was 10%. The most common complaints in the mass market EV category centered around infotainment, charging network, and interior or exterior styling. None of which really impact quality

Interesting that they neglected to include the two top-selling EVs in the USA which comprise well over half of EVs sold in the USA in 2022...

For some reason they're including the Lightning as a 'mass market' vehicle and the Model 3 as a 'premium' vehicle.

[Paper Chaser]

Interestingly, all the EVs scored lower than about half the non-EVs in separate JDP survey. Are EV owners just pickier and thus harder to satisfy?

Seems like many of the EV owners complaints centered around public charging network, which ICE vehicles don't have of course.

[TomTX]

The difference between the Bolt EV and the highest scoring mass market EV was 10%. The most common complaints in the mass market EV category centered around infotainment, charging network, and interior or exterior styling. None of which really impact quality

Interesting that they neglected to include the two top-selling EVs in the USA which comprise well over half of EVs sold in the USA in 2022...

For some reason they're including the Lightning as a 'mass market' vehicle and the Model 3 as a 'premium' vehicle.

So, from some quick Googling, it looks like the Lightning "starting price" is ~$15k higher than the Model 3, and sells FAR fewer vehicles. (16k Lightning globally vs 212k Model 3 in the USA alone)

JD Power is ridiculous.

[JLee]

The difference between the Bolt EV and the highest scoring mass market EV was 10%. The most common complaints in the mass market EV category centered around infotainment, charging network, and interior or exterior styling. None of which really impact quality

Interesting that they neglected to include the two top-selling EVs in the USA which comprise well over half of EVs sold in the USA in 2022...

For some reason they're including the Lightning as a 'mass market' vehicle and the Model 3 as a 'premium' vehicle.

So, from some quick Googling, it looks like the Lightning "starting price" is ~$15k higher than the Model 3, and sells FAR fewer vehicles. (16k Lightning globally vs 212k Model 3 in the USA alone)

JD Power is ridiculous.

Yep. Not to mention a Lightning Platinum is $96,874 plus options, vs the top-trim-in-model Model 3 Performance at $54k.

[Arbitrage]

JD Power is ridiculous.

I mean, it's not just them.  For various reasons, this country is built to incentivize large SUVs and trucks over cars.  Starting with lower emissions standards, which is why nearly every new car on the road is an SUV or truck. 

Even the latest 'green energy' bill still favors trucks over cars.  Tax credits for SUVs and trucks up to $80k, but for cars $55k.  Given the bill's overall concern with phasing out credits for the wealthy, it seems the intent is to encourage us to believe that an $80k truck or monster SUV is a reasonable purchase for middle-class Joe or Jane.

[EchoStache]

JD Power is ridiculous.

I mean, it's not just them.  For various reasons, this country is built to incentivize large SUVs and trucks over cars.  Starting with lower emissions standards, which is why nearly every new car on the road is an SUV or truck. 

Even the latest 'green energy' bill still favors trucks over cars.  Tax credits for SUVs and trucks up to $80k, but for cars $55k.  Given the bill's overall concern with phasing out credits for the wealthy, it seems the intent is to encourage us to believe that an $80k truck or monster SUV is a reasonable purchase for middle-class Joe or Jane.

I agree.  $55k price cap to receive tax credits towards an expensive brand new car is already a bit ridiculous.  But to say, wait, if you want to buy a more wasteful, larger, less efficient clown SUV/pickup, you can splurge way more and still have your frivolously wasteful uber consumption supplemented with tax breaks.  Ugg.

Set the price cap to $45k for tax credits, let the market figure out how to offer more affordable vehicles.  If Chevy can make a decent little 270 mile range car for $26k, I'm sure folks would figure out how to offer a pretty damn nice one for $45k.  Tesla already makes one, and a handful of others are close or under the cap with base models. 

When the cap was initially $55k for Model Y and Mustang Mach-e, guess what happened?  Tesla dropped prices, a lot, to get under the cap.  Wait, Ford couldn't get their price under $55k without losing more money.  I'm not naive enough to think Ford didn't lobby the hell out of Washington to make sure Tesla wasn't the only company able to afford to price their SUV under $55k.  So the government reclassified them as SUV's so they could raise prices. 

[BuffaloStache]

Agreed- it's insane that the laws are incentivizing large cars and SUVs.

Back to the subject of this thread- I picked up my Bolt EUV and have had it for just under a week now, and I'm loving it so far. The L2 charger at my house is working well, and my kids approve (the real test). 

[rothwem]

I haven't read the whole thread on this, but we were looking into getting a Bolt a couple weeks ago, I didn't realize they made an electric car so cheap.  The $7500 credit runs out at the end of March, but if we could get the base model, we'd be under 20k for a brand new EV, which might be neat I guess. Our main car is a 2017 MDX that's got a lifetime MPG of 21.  Not bad for an enormous minivan in an SUV suit, but not awesome either.  We don't use the capacity of it very often, and we could save ~200-250/month or so in gas if my wife drove the Bolt for her commute instead of the MDX.  If we were to trade out MDX in, we'd get ~20k for it, so the Bolt would be basically "free" after the tax credit if we could find an entry level model. 

That's the rub though--we haven't been able to find an entry level model anywhere.  They're listed on the Chevy website, listed on dealer lots, BUT THEY DON'T exist.  Going with an upmarket version really wipes out all of the gas savings.  These $38k are just stupidmobiles powered by electricity instead of gas.  Its pretty frustrating, and now ~10 Chevy dealers have my phone number, and one or several of them have sold my contact info to other dealerships so now my fucking phone rings 15x a day and I never answer it.   

Buying cars is such a shitty shitty experience.  Its been several years, I forgot how much it sucks.  It sucked before the pandemic, it sucks even more now.  It sucks even more if the car you're trying to buy is a left brain type of car where the actual driving experience of the vehicle won't make up for the trouble.  I think we're going to stay with what we have now and just run the miles up to 200k. 

[englishteacheralex]

I haven't read the whole thread on this, but we were looking into getting a Bolt a couple weeks ago, I didn't realize they made an electric car so cheap.  The $7500 credit runs out at the end of March, but if we could get the base model, we'd be under 20k for a brand new EV, which might be neat I guess. Our main car is a 2017 MDX that's got a lifetime MPG of 21.  Not bad for an enormous minivan in an SUV suit, but not awesome either.  We don't use the capacity of it very often, and we could save ~200-250/month or so in gas if my wife drove the Bolt for her commute instead of the MDX.  If we were to trade out MDX in, we'd get ~20k for it, so the Bolt would be basically "free" after the tax credit if we could find an entry level model. 

That's the rub though--we haven't been able to find an entry level model anywhere.  They're listed on the Chevy website, listed on dealer lots, BUT THEY DON'T exist.  Going with an upmarket version really wipes out all of the gas savings.  These $38k are just stupidmobiles powered by electricity instead of gas.  Its pretty frustrating, and now ~10 Chevy dealers have my phone number, and one or several of them have sold my contact info to other dealerships so now my fucking phone rings 15x a day and I never answer it.   

Buying cars is such a shitty shitty experience.  Its been several years, I forgot how much it sucks.  It sucked before the pandemic, it sucks even more now.  It sucks even more if the car you're trying to buy is a left brain type of car where the actual driving experience of the vehicle won't make up for the trouble.  I think we're going to stay with what we have now and just run the miles up to 200k.

Upthread I mentioned that I could not find an entry level 2023 Bolt anywhere, after calling every dealership in the state (there are five Chevy dealerships in Hawaii) and three dealerships in California. Entry level Bolts are unicorns. Everyone wants one before the tax credit changes in March. We wound up buying a 2020 Leaf, just because it was the newest EV that we could find that would be available ASAP. It was $26k and didn't qualify for a tax credit, but we just sucked it up.

[JLee]

I haven't read the whole thread on this, but we were looking into getting a Bolt a couple weeks ago, I didn't realize they made an electric car so cheap.  The $7500 credit runs out at the end of March, but if we could get the base model, we'd be under 20k for a brand new EV, which might be neat I guess. Our main car is a 2017 MDX that's got a lifetime MPG of 21.  Not bad for an enormous minivan in an SUV suit, but not awesome either.  We don't use the capacity of it very often, and we could save ~200-250/month or so in gas if my wife drove the Bolt for her commute instead of the MDX.  If we were to trade out MDX in, we'd get ~20k for it, so the Bolt would be basically "free" after the tax credit if we could find an entry level model. 

That's the rub though--we haven't been able to find an entry level model anywhere.  They're listed on the Chevy website, listed on dealer lots, BUT THEY DON'T exist.  Going with an upmarket version really wipes out all of the gas savings.  These $38k are just stupidmobiles powered by electricity instead of gas.  Its pretty frustrating, and now ~10 Chevy dealers have my phone number, and one or several of them have sold my contact info to other dealerships so now my fucking phone rings 15x a day and I never answer it.   

Buying cars is such a shitty shitty experience.  Its been several years, I forgot how much it sucks.  It sucked before the pandemic, it sucks even more now.  It sucks even more if the car you're trying to buy is a left brain type of car where the actual driving experience of the vehicle won't make up for the trouble.  I think we're going to stay with what we have now and just run the miles up to 200k.

Upthread I mentioned that I could not find an entry level 2023 Bolt anywhere, after calling every dealership in the state (there are five Chevy dealerships in Hawaii) and three dealerships in California. Entry level Bolts are unicorns. Everyone wants one before the tax credit changes in March. We wound up buying a 2020 Leaf, just because it was the newest EV that we could find that would be available ASAP. It was $26k and didn't qualify for a tax credit, but we just sucked it up.

My SO called 40-50 dealerships in the northeast and eventually found one in nowheresville New York. Definitely not easy..

[BuffaloStache]

Definitely sucks that Bolts/Bolt EUVs aren't more available, but shockingly they do seem to be on the lower end of the "average wait time" for an EV nowadays if you order one. I had to wait ~2.5 months from order until delivery to me for my EUV, and I have heard of people waiting ~6 months for regular Bolts. I had to request special permission at my job to switch to being fully remote while I waited, but I honestly viewed it as a flexing of my FU muscles (but totally understand that it wouldn't work for everyone). But aside from Nissan Leafs that can be found anywhere, it seems like 6 months is the minimum wait time for most other EVs (VW ID.4, Ford Mustang Mach-e, Hyundai Kone EV/Ionic 5, and even some Teslas).

Also, while it's likely that the Fed tax credit will drop down to $3750 next week for the Bolt/Bolt EUV, it's not guaranteed and it is extremely unlikely that it'll drop down to $0. We'll all have to wait and see what comes out next week before the details are finalized.

I hate to be *that* guy, but just want to chime in and say that with the $7500 fed tax credit (or even a reduced $3750 credit), a loaded up ~$38k Bolt EUV (and on Chevy's website the highest MSRP I can get for a regular Bolt, 2LT +infotainment + adaptive cruisecontrol is ~$33k) can easily get well down into the $20's for a net purchase price. Even moreso if you live in a state like mine that offers additional State tax credits on top. Still not the most mustachian car choice in the world, but it brings the net purchase price down to be on par/lower than any new base-level Subaru Outback, Hyundai Sante Fe, or Honda CR-V (and pretty close to MSRP of a loaded Subaru Impreza Hatchback); all for a fully capable EV with much higher trim features/options and a much lower $/mile operating cost. And aside from the Nissan Leaf mentioned before, there aren't any other EVs that even come close to that price.

Ultimately, I never expected to ever buy a 'new' car in my lifetime, nor ever excepted to buy a Chevy- especially since I found out about FIRE. Buying this car, for me, is still absolutely facepunch-worthy and likely will not turn "beneficial" (in terms of ROI/recurring cost when compared to a used similar sized gas car) towards my FIRE journey until well after I hit my FI number. But if you have some patience in ordering, can deal with the couple of faults the car has (slow L3 DCFC rates, not great in snow/winter driving unless you get snow tires, etc.), I still believe the Chevy Bolt and/or Bolt EUV is the best value in EVs right now. Obviously this could change with the Fed tax credit news next week, but even with a reduced $3750 credit this car will still be a good value when compared against any other new car that is an EV.

[EchoStache]

@BuffaloStache I think you have nothing to worry about in terms of how Mustachian of a purchase the Bolt EUV was.  If you drive this car for 10 years fueled by nothing other than cheap electricity, or perhaps even solar at some point, I don't think there is a decent, reliable car you could have purchased that would have a cheaper ten year cost of ownership. 

With the current used car market, even with a $10-$15k used gas car i.e. cheaper up front....I think there is no way the 10 year cost of ownership will be as low as your Bolt.  No gas, no oil changes, hardly any routine maintenance such as brakes etc.  A $10-$15k used ICE car at this time is going to be 5+ years old and not super low mileage.  So in that 10 years of ownership you are likely to encounter substantial maintenance costs even for scheduled service such as timing belt etc.

Maybe one could make the point of a break even scenario with a cheaper, older ICE car....but you'd be giving up a lot that the Bolt offers.  And even if someone can make up numbers where you don't come out ahead, it is still a small price to pay to support greener technology, IMO.

[grantmeaname]

That smells a lot like magical thinking to me. In my state the back of the envelope math suggested that the Bolt would save me around $300/year vs my 2012 Honda Fit (less spending on gas and perhaps on maintenance, but more spending on tires, insurance, and state registration), excluding depreciation which would go highly in favor of the Fit. That's a <1% ROI on the $30k you'd have to spend to get the car. The math looks much better if your state doesn't put a surcharge on EVs, or if your current car is big and expensive, but the Bolt vs Fit is pretty close to apples-to-apples in terms of car capabilities.

[JLee]

That smells a lot like magical thinking to me. In my state the back of the envelope math suggested that the Bolt would save me around $300/year vs my 2012 Honda Fit (less spending on gas and perhaps on maintenance, but more spending on tires, insurance, and state registration), excluding depreciation which would go highly in favor of the Fit. That's a <1% ROI on the $30k you'd have to spend to get the car. The math looks much better if your state doesn't put a surcharge on EVs, or if your current car is big and expensive, but the Bolt vs Fit is pretty close to apples-to-apples in terms of car capabilities.

It does vary a lot by state - my state has inexpensive registrations and sales tax on initial registration, which is waived for EVs - so a $20k car has an immediate 6.x% advantage on day 1.

[afox]

That smells a lot like magical thinking to me. In my state the back of the envelope math suggested that the Bolt would save me around $300/year vs my 2012 Honda Fit (less spending on gas and perhaps on maintenance, but more spending on tires, insurance, and state registration), excluding depreciation which would go highly in favor of the Fit. That's a <1% ROI on the $30k you'd have to spend to get the car. The math looks much better if your state doesn't put a surcharge on EVs, or if your current car is big and expensive, but the Bolt vs Fit is pretty close to apples-to-apples in terms of car capabilities.

yep! i was tempted by the sweet smell of electrons too but in the end decided to keep my old small ICE hatchback that gets 40mpg (about the same size as chevy bolt), the opportunity costs are so high on a purchase like this and almost never a factor for consideration. It is why at age 46 i have bought one new vehicle in my life and every vehicle ive purchased other than the one new vehicle cost me less than $2,000. Doing so enables me to have much higher rates of savings. In 30 years of driving ive spent about as much as most people spend in 5 years of driving. At least when I blow money on houses I might get lucky with appreciation or income, spending money on cars is always a poor financial decision. The best you can do is to spend as little money to get from point a to point b and a new BEV is not the cheapest option even a bolt with the govt giveaways...

[JLee]

That smells a lot like magical thinking to me. In my state the back of the envelope math suggested that the Bolt would save me around $300/year vs my 2012 Honda Fit (less spending on gas and perhaps on maintenance, but more spending on tires, insurance, and state registration), excluding depreciation which would go highly in favor of the Fit. That's a <1% ROI on the $30k you'd have to spend to get the car. The math looks much better if your state doesn't put a surcharge on EVs, or if your current car is big and expensive, but the Bolt vs Fit is pretty close to apples-to-apples in terms of car capabilities.

yep! i was tempted by the sweet smell of electrons too but in the end decided to keep my old small ICE hatchback that gets 40mpg (about the same size as chevy bolt), the opportunity costs are so high on a purchase like this and almost never a factor for consideration. It is why at age 46 i have bought one new vehicle in my life and every vehicle ive purchased other than the one new vehicle cost me less than $2,000. Doing so enables me to have much higher rates of savings. In 30 years of driving ive spent about as much as most people spend in 5 years of driving. At least when I blow money on houses I might get lucky with appreciation or income, spending money on cars is always a poor financial decision. The best you can do is to spend as little money to get from point a to point b and a new BEV is not the cheapest option even a bolt with the govt giveaways...

Generally yes, though the last couple of years have been weird.  I drove a new Model 3 for nearly 3 years and sold it for more than I paid for it, and a Lightning for 3 months and also sold it for more than I paid.  Those days are probably over, though.

[VanillaGorilla]

That smells a lot like magical thinking to me. In my state the back of the envelope math suggested that the Bolt would save me around $300/year vs my 2012 Honda Fit (less spending on gas and perhaps on maintenance, but more spending on tires, insurance, and state registration), excluding depreciation which would go highly in favor of the Fit. That's a <1% ROI on the $30k you'd have to spend to get the car. The math looks much better if your state doesn't put a surcharge on EVs, or if your current car is big and expensive, but the Bolt vs Fit is pretty close to apples-to-apples in terms of car capabilities.

Agreed - running numbers against my Prius a Bolt would not offering a meaningful improvement.

[GuitarStv]

if your state doesn't put a surcharge on EVs

What's the reasoning behind the surcharge on EVs?  Goal of hastening climate change?  Bizarre.

[ChpBstrd]

if your state doesn't put a surcharge on EVs

What's the reasoning behind the surcharge on EVs?  Goal of hastening climate change?  Bizarre.

The rationale in my state (which has a $200 annual fee to own a BEV, and $100/year for a plug-in hybrid, versus $25 for an oil burner) is that these users are avoiding the gasoline taxes that fund road repairs. I guess in the event of a sudden shift, the state would be without revenue for road repairs.

Also it was seen as a way to put a special tax on those liberal Prius-drivers.

[grantmeaname]

Yes, this, it's supposed to offset the state's foregone gas tax. Once the red statehouse realizes that it's the upper class buying EVs and not just vegan college professors I expect they will get rid of it.

[EchoStache]

I just ran the numbers on a 2023 Chevy Bolt EUV base model and an 8 year old Honda Fit with 81,000 miles at a "Good Price" on Autotrader.  So an old, high mileage car that is likely to need a fair bit of maintenance if kept and driven for 10 more years:

Bolt EUV:
$30,523 out the door at MSRP
-$7500 tax credit
-$2,000 state tax credit(some higher, some lower, this is for PA)
$21,023 net cost

Honda Fit $14,840 net cost.  So we have a net price difference of $6183 that I will use for opportunity cost.

Assume 15,000 miles/year, gas @ $3.75/gallon, Honda 36 mpg combined, rated at 33/40.  Electric @ 0.10/kWh

$150/year for oil changes and NO OTHER MAINTENANCE AT ALL i.e. brakes, timing belt/chain, or major engine/transmission/exhuast repair etc. i.e. absolute best possible magical thinking scenario(sorry, couldn't resist)

Honda Fit 10 year $31,960

Bolt EUV 10 year $30,750.  This includes the opportunity cost of the additional $6,183 in net purchase cost of the Bolt @ 7% interest over 10 years.

Now let's assume the Bolt will replace the brakes FAR less frequently than the Honda that already has over 80,000 miles and will end up at 230,00 miles. 

Looks to me like it's easy to imagine a scenario is similar with one of the smallest, cheapest, old, high mileage used cars vs a brand new Bolt EUV. 

If someone has solar, the 10 year TCO of the Bolt comes out even further ahead.  If someone has off peak super cheap electric rates, even cheaper.

I acknowledge there are scenarios where either car could come out ahead such as driving super low miles, super high electric rates, etc etc.  But based on a *reasonable* comparison, at worst, it seems pretty close financially.  However, the added benefit is that one option isn't burning gas and oil for 10 years.

[Bird In Hand]

Assume 15,000 miles/year, gas @ $3.75/gallon, Honda 36 mpg combined, rated at 33/40.  Electric @ 0.10/kWh

I like the Bolt just fine, and I'd love to have an EV someday.  If my utility charged $.10/kWh then I might be willing to take the leap sooner rather than later.  But my rate (supply + delivery, etc.) is close to $.30/kWh, and I average about 45MPG in my econobox ICE car.  At current gas prices of ~$3.15 where I live, it's actually cheaper to fuel an efficient ICE or hybrid than most EV's.  :/

One of the higher-efficiency EV's like a Model 3 or Hyundai Ioniq Electric (the discontinued one) would be a bit cheaper than gas.

The next car we get will likely be something used like that Ioniq or maybe a Prius.

[afox]

I just ran the numbers on a 2023 Chevy Bolt EUV base model and an 8 year old Honda Fit with 81,000 miles at a "Good Price" on Autotrader.  So an old, high mileage car that is likely to need a fair bit of maintenance if kept and driven for 10 more years:

Bolt EUV:
$30,523 out the door at MSRP
-$7500 tax credit
-$2,000 state tax credit(some higher, some lower, this is for PA)
$21,023 net cost

Honda Fit $14,840 net cost.  So we have a net price difference of $6183 that I will use for opportunity cost.

Assume 15,000 miles/year, gas @ $3.75/gallon, Honda 36 mpg combined, rated at 33/40.  Electric @ 0.10/kWh

$150/year for oil changes and NO OTHER MAINTENANCE AT ALL i.e. brakes, timing belt/chain, or major engine/transmission/exhuast repair etc. i.e. absolute best possible magical thinking scenario(sorry, couldn't resist)

Honda Fit 10 year $31,960

Bolt EUV 10 year $30,750.  This includes the opportunity cost of the additional $6,183 in net purchase cost of the Bolt @ 7% interest over 10 years.

Now let's assume the Bolt will replace the brakes FAR less frequently than the Honda that already has over 80,000 miles and will end up at 230,00 miles. 

Looks to me like it's easy to imagine a scenario is similar with one of the smallest, cheapest, old, high mileage used cars vs a brand new Bolt EUV. 

If someone has solar, the 10 year TCO of the Bolt comes out even further ahead.  If someone has off peak super cheap electric rates, even cheaper.

I acknowledge there are scenarios where either car could come out ahead such as driving super low miles, super high electric rates, etc etc.  But based on a *reasonable* comparison, at worst, it seems pretty close financially.  However, the added benefit is that one option isn't burning gas and oil for 10 years.

well aint that something!

looks like at 15k miles a year the fit costs about $1000 more per year to drive. I only drive about 5,000 miles a year.

also national average per kwh is $.23 in CO where most of us live its $.15

and theres got to be some public charging in there which can get pricey.

but still for an in town car if you have cheap electricity thats really good!

[grantmeaname]

Your assumed Fit is double the cost of mine, my state doesn't top up the federal credit, the federal credit is likely cutting in half any day now, you're ignoring more tires and more insurance for the newer heavier car, and that's an unrealistically low electricity rate (surely if you give a fuck about the planet you buy green electricity?), and that's much more than I hope to drive, and even with all of those assumptions you get to only approximately breakeven vs keeping the car you have already. I'm perfectly happy to let a very heavy driver who wants a new car take that Bolt and keep putting as few miles as I can on the Fit.

Edit: perhaps another way to say this is, even holding everything else even, your TCO difference is 1/5th the size of the potential changes to the tax credit, or 1/10th of the cost of the used car youre measuring against, so the savings if any are very small and relative to the price you can get into the car at...

[JLee]

Your assumed Fit is double the cost of mine, my state doesn't top up the federal credit, the federal credit is likely cutting in half any day now, you're ignoring more tires and more insurance for the newer heavier car, and that's an unrealistically low electricity rate (surely if you give a fuck about the planet you buy green electricity?), and that's much more than I hope to drive, and even with all of those assumptions you get to only approximately breakeven vs keeping the car you have already. I'm perfectly happy to let a very heavy driver who wants a new car take that Bolt and keep putting as few miles as I can on the Fit.

Edit: perhaps another way to say this is, even holding everything else even, your TCO difference is 1/5th the size of the potential changes to the tax credit, or 1/10th of the cost of the used car youre measuring against, so the savings if any are very small and relative to the price you can get into the car at...

Ignoring, of course, that a 10yo car 10 years from now will be worth notably less than a new car ten years from now.  Pretty crazy that a brand new EV can be that similar in cost to a 10-15yo ICE car, isn't it?

[grantmeaname]

Right - to be logically consistent we don't want to account for the upfront costs not at all, or account for them two times. If you include the upfront cost in the TCO you should also ignore depreciation in your calculations, or vice versa.

A 20 year old Fit is a $3k car and a 10 year old Fit is a $7k car, so you're talking about a $400/yr economic depreciation. If a 10-year-old Bolt is worth what a 10-year old leaf is worth, you're talking about depreciation from $22k down to $3k. The 2013 Leaf has unique design problems that the 2023 Bolt hopefully will not, so even if we're generous and double its residual value to $6k, you're still talking about $1600/year of depreciation. That $1200 difference more than swamps the actual operating cost savings of the Bolt - by a factor of 4-6x in my case.

[JLee]

Right - to be logically consistent we don't want to account for the upfront costs not at all, or account for them two times. If you include the upfront cost in the TCO you should also ignore depreciation in your calculations, or vice versa.

A 20 year old Fit is a $3k car and a 10 year old Fit is a $7k car, so you're talking about a $400/yr economic depreciation. If a 10-year-old Bolt is worth what a 10-year old leaf is worth, you're talking about depreciation from $22k down to $3k. The 2013 Leaf has unique design problems that the 2023 Bolt hopefully will not, so even if we're generous and double its residual value to $6k, you're still talking about $1600/year of depreciation. That $1200 difference more than swamps the actual operating cost savings of the Bolt - by a factor of 4-6x in my case.

A few notes:

1) A 20 year old Fit doesn't exist yet
2) As you noted the first generation Leafs were notoriously terrible first-gen products
3) A 2019 Bolt EV is $18.5k used
4) Not sure what the current tax credit situation is for Bolts, but three weeks ago a base Bolt was $19k after tax credit.  $1600/year in depreciation puts a resale value at $6,000 after ten years, but as demonstrated a four year old car is north of $18k (NJ area).  Maybe the next six years will result in them dropping to $6k? If so, that'll be a hell of a bargain.
5) Maintenance costs were not fully factored in that calculation, and if we are talking about 2013 Fits for $7k they probably haven't had much maintenance so they're going to need some TLC.

But hey, whatever works for you is what works for you.

[RWD]

If a 10-year-old Bolt is worth what a 10-year old leaf is worth, you're talking about depreciation from $22k down to $3k.

Where the heck are you finding 2013 LEAFs for $3k? The cheapest one I can find on Autotrader is $4.2k (162k miles, private seller). The median price is $8.8k.

I'm also suspect of your used Fit pricing. Median price on Autotrader for a 2013 Fit is $12.5k so it has quite a bit more room to depreciate than you are implying. Only 1.6% of 2013 Fit listings were less than $7k (170k-200k miles). Worn out unicorns.

[EchoStache]

Your assumed Fit is double the cost of mine, my state doesn't top up the federal credit, the federal credit is likely cutting in half any day now, you're ignoring more tires and more insurance for the newer heavier car, and that's an unrealistically low electricity rate (surely if you give a fuck about the planet you buy green electricity?), and that's much more than I hope to drive, and even with all of those assumptions you get to only approximately breakeven vs keeping the car you have already. I'm perfectly happy to let a very heavy driver who wants a new car take that Bolt and keep putting as few miles as I can on the Fit.

Edit: perhaps another way to say this is, even holding everything else even, your TCO difference is 1/5th the size of the potential changes to the tax credit, or 1/10th of the cost of the used car youre measuring against, so the savings if any are very small and relative to the price you can get into the car at...

And there are used Honda Fits for sale that cost a lot more than $14k.  And some people pay less than $0.10/kWh for electric.  And some people, in your words, who "give a fuck about the planet" get free electricity with solar.  And the average electric price in the US is $0.107/kWh, so no, .10/kW is not an unrealistically low rate. Correction, bad source...avg electric rate is indeed higher than .10kW.  My personal rate is currently lower than that but I tried to use a reasonable and realistic scenario.   And there's a good chance that driving an 8 year old $14k used car for ten more years out to 230,000 miles is going to result in some major maintenance cost I didn't account for, and brakes that I didn't account for.  And there's actually quite a lot of free level 2 public charging.  I'll gladly spend a little more on tires to spend far less on maintenance over time.

The cost comparison I gave was pretty solid, IMO....for someone who is looking to currently go buy a reasonable car to drive for 10 years.

But if you want to keep burning gas and oil and destroying the planet, go for it.

We can all come up with "what if" scenarios.  What if I didn't drive much...well I'd get an older cheaper EV with the $4,000 used EV credit and drive for free with solar power and almost zero maintenance and not keep using a bunch of gas and oil.

If we want to bring depreciation into the mix..well, I'd rather have a 10 year old Chevy bolt EV with 150,000 miles that will probably actually be worth something to someone rather than an 18-20 year old 230,000 mile ICE car that no one wants since by that point, EV's will be common place and few will want outdated ICE cars.

[EchoStache]

Your assumed Fit is double the cost of mine, my state doesn't top up the federal credit, the federal credit is likely cutting in half any day now, you're ignoring more tires and more insurance for the newer heavier car, and that's an unrealistically low electricity rate (surely if you give a fuck about the planet you buy green electricity?), and that's much more than I hope to drive, and even with all of those assumptions you get to only approximately breakeven vs keeping the car you have already. I'm perfectly happy to let a very heavy driver who wants a new car take that Bolt and keep putting as few miles as I can on the Fit.

Edit: perhaps another way to say this is, even holding everything else even, your TCO difference is 1/5th the size of the potential changes to the tax credit, or 1/10th of the cost of the used car youre measuring against, so the savings if any are very small and relative to the price you can get into the car at...

I agree 100% in your specific use case i.e. you currently have a low cost, good, reliable, fuel efficient used car, and you don't drive much, it's almost impossible to justify spending much if any money at all on an EV.  You don't drive enough to offset the upfront cost.

But that's not the scenario I laid out.  I'm looking at it from the standpoint of someone who drives a lot and needs to buy a car.  A new or used Chevy Bolt is going to be very hard to beat with an ICE car.  I wouldn't bother trying.

[TomTX]

And some people pay less than $0.10/kWh for electric.  And some people, in your words, who "give a fuck about the planet" get free electricity with solar.  And the average electric price in the US is $0.107/kWh, so no, .10/kW is not an unrealistically low rate. Correction, bad source...avg electric rate is indeed higher than .10kW.  My personal rate is currently lower than that but I tried to use a reasonable and realistic scenario. 

Also depends how your electric bill is structured. I have a relatively high fixed cost (monthly charge to be connected.) For my average bill, the average cost of a kWh (distributing the base fee across each kWh) is about 11 cents. However, the marginal cost of an additional kWh is 4.5 cents. If I switched to the time-of-use plan and only charged during the late night to get the cheapest prices the marginal cost would be 3 cents per kWh.

[grantmeaname]

Where the heck are you finding 2013 LEAFs for $3k? The cheapest one I can find on Autotrader is $4.2k (162k miles, private seller). The median price is $8.8k.

That was Edmunds' quoted value, and I guess that's what I get for relying on Edmunds rather than a source worth a damn. Agreed, that that's pretty optimistic on taking a look at craigslist - in my local market they range from $3.2 to $12.5k.

I'm also suspect of your used Fit pricing. Median price on Autotrader for a 2013 Fit is $12.5k so it has quite a bit more room to depreciate than you are implying. Only 1.6% of 2013 Fit listings were less than $7k (170k-200k miles). Worn out unicorns.

My '12 Fit was $6.2k in Oct 2021 and the on paper KBB price has appreciated from $6.2 to $7.3k in the ~2.5 years since. Maybe autotrader prices run really high? Regardless, I've never seen a gen 2 fit go for anything like $12.5, and I would certainly not accept that that's the minimum price a Mustachian could get into one for. The depreciation assumptions are not super sensitive in either case - you're talking about a large multiple of the actual operating cost savings.

2) As you noted the first generation Leafs were notoriously terrible first-gen products

The Bolts already appear to be significantly lacking compared to their contemporary more expensive competitors, and will likely themselves look very dated in a decade, just like the Leafs do now. They will work fine for my use case, and many use cases, but not for all buyers. I think it's reasonable to assume they will be worth substantially more than a 10yo Leaf today - which is why I have assumed they will be worth substantially more than a Leaf! Even with that assumption, the higher depreciation more than overpowers the miniscule operating cost savings.

5) Maintenance costs were not fully factored in that calculation, and if we are talking about 2013 Fits for $7k they probably haven't had much maintenance so they're going to need some TLC.

I got a 2012 fit for $6.2 2 years ago that was babied. As a Mustachian I look hard for a good buy, and I would hope anyone else buying a car with 100k miles and a decade of driving on it would at least kick the tires. You're making an unfair supposition, and the fact you need to do so in an attempt to make the math appear to work out for the supposedly vastly superior option suggests that maybe it's not so vastly superior after all.

[grantmeaname]

I agree 100% in your specific use case i.e. you currently have a low cost, good, reliable, fuel efficient used car, and you don't drive much, it's almost impossible to justify spending much if any money at all on an EV.  You don't drive enough to offset the upfront cost.

But that's not the scenario I laid out.  I'm looking at it from the standpoint of someone who drives a lot and needs to buy a car.  A new or used Chevy Bolt is going to be very hard to beat with an ICE car.  I wouldn't bother trying.

I couldn't agree more that if you need to drive a lot in a new car, the Bolt is a good option. But you're moving the goalposts compared to the original assertion, which was that  "I don't think there is a decent, reliable car you could have purchased that would have a cheaper ten year cost of ownership."

[JLee]

Where the heck are you finding 2013 LEAFs for $3k? The cheapest one I can find on Autotrader is $4.2k (162k miles, private seller). The median price is $8.8k.

That was Edmunds' quoted value, and I guess that's what I get for relying on Edmunds rather than a source worth a damn. Agreed, that that's pretty optimistic on taking a look at craigslist - in my local market they range from $3.2 to $12.5k.

I'm also suspect of your used Fit pricing. Median price on Autotrader for a 2013 Fit is $12.5k so it has quite a bit more room to depreciate than you are implying. Only 1.6% of 2013 Fit listings were less than $7k (170k-200k miles). Worn out unicorns.

My '12 Fit was $6.2k in Oct 2021 and the on paper KBB price has appreciated from $6.2 to $7.3k in the ~2.5 years since. Maybe autotrader prices run really high? Regardless, I've never seen a gen 2 fit go for anything like $12.5, and I would certainly not accept that that's the minimum price a Mustachian could get into one for. The depreciation assumptions are not super sensitive in either case - you're talking about a large multiple of the actual operating cost savings.

2) As you noted the first generation Leafs were notoriously terrible first-gen products

The Bolts already appear to be significantly lacking compared to their contemporary more expensive competitors, and will likely themselves look very dated in a decade, just like the Leafs do now. They will work fine for my use case, and many use cases, but not for all buyers. I think it's reasonable to assume they will be worth substantially more than a 10yo Leaf today - which is why I have assumed they will be worth substantially more than a Leaf! Even with that assumption, the higher depreciation more than overpowers the miniscule operating cost savings.

5) Maintenance costs were not fully factored in that calculation, and if we are talking about 2013 Fits for $7k they probably haven't had much maintenance so they're going to need some TLC.

I got a 2012 fit for $6.2 2 years ago that was babied. As a Mustachian I look hard for a good buy, and I would hope anyone else buying a car with 100k miles and a decade of driving on it would at least kick the tires. You're making an unfair supposition, and the fact you need to do so in an attempt to make the math appear to work out for the supposedly vastly superior option suggests that maybe it's not so vastly superior after all.

And I drove a new Model 3 for 29k miles and sold it for a profit. ;)

I haven't claimed it's a vastly superior option.  It's dependent on the situation - I'm happy to have a friendly discussion, but that stops when you start fighting a strawman.

[EchoStache]

I agree 100% in your specific use case i.e. you currently have a low cost, good, reliable, fuel efficient used car, and you don't drive much, it's almost impossible to justify spending much if any money at all on an EV.  You don't drive enough to offset the upfront cost.

But that's not the scenario I laid out.  I'm looking at it from the standpoint of someone who drives a lot and needs to buy a car.  A new or used Chevy Bolt is going to be very hard to beat with an ICE car.  I wouldn't bother trying.

I couldn't agree more that if you need to drive a lot in a new car, the Bolt is a good option. But you're moving the goalposts compared to the original assertion, which was that  "I don't think there is a decent, reliable car you could have purchased that would have a cheaper ten year cost of ownership."

No, not moving the goal post at all...I think that might fall more in your court.  Some assumptions were made in my assertion about 10 year cost of ownership, and that included average usage, average prices, etc.  It wasn't a detailed case study with 100% of all possible scenarios.  Your assertion is based on more of a fringe case of very low mileage. 

Edit: I'm in a super irritated mood and just removed some of the irritatedness. :)

[EchoStache]

And some people pay less than $0.10/kWh for electric.  And some people, in your words, who "give a fuck about the planet" get free electricity with solar.  And the average electric price in the US is $0.107/kWh, so no, .10/kW is not an unrealistically low rate. Correction, bad source...avg electric rate is indeed higher than .10kW.  My personal rate is currently lower than that but I tried to use a reasonable and realistic scenario. 

Also depends how your electric bill is structured. I have a relatively high fixed cost (monthly charge to be connected.) For my average bill, the average cost of a kWh (distributing the base fee across each kWh) is about 11 cents. However, the marginal cost of an additional kWh is 4.5 cents. If I switched to the time-of-use plan and only charged during the late night to get the cheapest prices the marginal cost would be 3 cents per kWh.

Yeah, and this is another relatively common scenario that drives the long term cost of owning an EV WAY down.  I don't have off peak rates, but I did shop for a plan where I'm paying 7.6 cents per k/Wh around the clock.

[Paper Chaser]

The recent discussion just proves how variable the cost of EV ownership can be. Where you live is massively important in the equation as it determines applicable tax credits, utility costs, annual registration fees (if any), solar viability, etc. It's highly variable for each unique usage, and there are cases where the right EV can pencil out and others where even cheap EVs have little or no financial advantage over an efficient ICE.

The amount of driving (consumption) that you do is also key. The financial and environmental benefits of an EV accrue on a per mile basis. They reward consumption. The less you drive, the less benefit there is for your pocket book and the environment. I'd wager that EVs are a viable option for regular people, living regular lives more often than they are a viable option for Mustachians that tend to limit their consumption and spending.

[grantmeaname]

I agree with all that - and will add, if you're a light driver or working to be one, you should be thrilled to see EVs go to the hands of the heaviest drivers and replacing the biggest ICE cars.

[TomTX]

I agree with all that - and will add, if you're a light driver or working to be one, you should be thrilled to see EVs go to the hands of the heaviest drivers and replacing the biggest ICE cars.

Other than the cost, this is the big reason I don't have an EV. I simply don't drive enough miles to justify it.

[BuffaloStache]

Wow- I haven't been on here in a while but I'm glad I kicked off an active discussion. I think this was an interesting debate.

The recent discussion just proves how variable the cost of EV ownership can be. Where you live is massively important in the equation as it determines applicable tax credits, utility costs, annual registration fees (if any), solar viability, etc. It's highly variable for each unique usage, and there are cases where the right EV can pencil out and others where even cheap EVs have little or no financial advantage over an efficient ICE.

The amount of driving (consumption) that you do is also key. The financial and environmental benefits of an EV accrue on a per mile basis. They reward consumption. The less you drive, the less benefit there is for your pocket book and the environment. I'd wager that EVs are a viable option for regular people, living regular lives more often than they are a viable option for Mustachians that tend to limit their consumption and spending.

100% this. I knew my state seemed to be more EV friendly than most (State Tax Credit on top of Fed tax credit, no real difference in cost of annual registration, local + utility company rebates for installing at-home chargers, etc. etc.), but I didn't know how bad it could be on the other side of things. Really crazy how variable it is. Also, for various reasons my family is part of the clown-car commuting society, so we have longer than average commutes which makes the EV case better for us (easily driving >10,000mi per year in commuting alone between my wife and myself).

In my scenario, my 17 year old/180k mi car was literally dying (would overheat/stall after ~40 minutes of continuous driving- only fix was a >$8k engine repair job), so I did need a car and am happy with the decision. I've had my Bolt EUV for about a month now, have driven over 1,000 miles, and have spent <$35 in electricity costs (I get ~$ 0.12/kWh for off-peak electricity). Also, I know this is globbing on to the "location matters" argument, but bc of my local/utility rebates I got for installing my at-home charger, I was also able to get $500 in Fast Charger credits with my car. Haven't used them yet but it will reduce the TCO even further.

[HawkeyeNFO]

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/25/gm-bolt-ev-production-to-end-later-this-year.html

The Bolt is done.

[grantmeaname]

This smells like a price increase to me. Kill the EUV, announce a very similar new car with a more modern platform, for a lot more money. CNBC says similar pricing on the Equinox but I would be shocked if that's true.

[RWD]

This smells like a price increase to me. Kill the EUV, announce a very similar new car with a more modern platform, for a lot more money. CNBC says similar pricing on the Equinox but I would be shocked if that's true.

Depends on what they mean by "similar". In that article they say about $30k for the upcoming Equinox (which is what I've heard before and is the estimate on GM's own website). That's 13% more than the starting price of the Bolt ($26.5k). After taking into account that they both should qualify for the $7.5k federal credit the difference is 18% ($22.5k vs $19k). That's a bit borderline for the definition of "similar" to me. I guess once they're both loaded up with options and fees and markup as the dealers would like the difference may be less pronounced.

[Philociraptor]

Disappointing, to say the least. For decades, the EPA double-standard of "light-duty" vs "medium-duty" has pushed automakers towards more trucks and SUVs due to the less rigorous emissions requirements, and now we finally have a VERY successful, American-made electric hatchback that is being discontinued right as it hits critical mass to make room for more SUVs and trucks. Roads, already remarkably unsafe for bikers and pedestrians, just became a little less safe.

[Arbitrage]

Disappointing, to say the least. For decades, the EPA double-standard of "light-duty" vs "medium-duty" has pushed automakers towards more trucks and SUVs due to the less rigorous emissions requirements, and now we finally have a VERY successful, American-made electric hatchback that is being discontinued right as it hits critical mass to make room for more SUVs and trucks. Roads, already remarkably unsafe for bikers and pedestrians, just became a little less safe.

100% agree.  Just so sick of the ginormification of the American vehicle and how horrible it is for our cities/roads/use of space as well as the safety of everyone except for the occupants of that particular vehicle.  This is doubtless just going to result in a newer, more expensive, bigger vehicle by GM. 

[curious_george]

Today is another sad day.

Yet another small car has bit the dust.

[GilesMM]

This is terrible new and not very good for Bolt owners.

[Paper Chaser]

GM was telling people in Jan 2022 that the Orion plant where the Bolt is assembled would be repurposed for Ultium EV assembly by early 2024:

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2022/01/gm-orion-plant-to-produce-chevy-silverado-ev-and-electric-gmc-sierra/

I'm speculating that a big reason they brought the EUV over from China and then dropped the price on the 2023's was to move more product out the door and fulfill contracts with suppliers before shutting the assembly lines down.

[curious_george]

Maybe the used chevy bolts will be cheaper next year.

[grantmeaname]

My hope is that in a few years expectations for fast charging will be higher and I can pick up a Bolt for cheap, just like the Leaf is seen as missing a big element today. Of course range is a much bigger problem than slow charging, but still...