The latest latecomers to Bitcoin will lose zero purchasing power in the act of transferring their fiat to Bitcoin. Example: You have $1M in 2030, and $1M could buy a Ferrari - you transfer it to Bitcoin - your Bitcoin will buy that same Ferrari (even if $1M = just 1BTC).
You will have missed out on the purchasing power gains you could have made by buying that 1BTC today for $35k, but Bitcoin hasn't taken anything away from you. You just made a bad decision today.
Of course, I could be wrong, it could all go to zero. In which case, you made a good decision today.
If inflation/debasement continues to be a problem, your $1M (and equivalent BTC) might only buy a Prius in 2030. Again, Bitcoin hasn't taken anything away from you - the $ took it.
So it's basically just a bet that this will happen, in this specific way, and you'd end up astronomically wealthy. While everyone else who do nothing just see no significant change, just switch to BTC when it happens. Well, then the worst case scenario doesn't really sound that bad to me. I think i'll take my chances (mostly because I think this is completely idiotic and will never happen, but even if it does; "eh, whatever").
The first sentence, pretty much, yes. I should clarify that '
astronomical wealth' is not my main nor only objective. I believe that Bitcoin is a force for good, and fairness, and honesty - and I'm happy that every £GBP I transfer to BTC is pushing it forward a little more.
I don't know why you say "
everyone else" will "
switch" "
when it happens". I clearly described my expectation as a gradual transition, people gradually get on board, gradually allocate a little more to BTC, etc. I made no mention of "
everyone" or a "
switch" and I have no concept of a time "
when it happens" - it's been happening for years, it's happening now and I expect it to continue to happen for some considerable time.
And more important; I obviously don't keep all my wealth in "debased fiat"! Duh, that's why we all here have stocks; the value will grow faster than inflation (what you call debasing..). So like your example I might have 1BTC worth today in stocks, and in the future when that 1BTC buy a ferrari, I might be able to sell the same number of stocks and buy the same ferrari. So what did I loose?! I don't see that being any less likely than the same trajectory for BTC (ok, I see it as more likely obvi, or I'd buy BTC as well..). So comparing BTC vs cash in the mattress is disingenuous; nobody is saying that won't loose value. Even the most finance illiterate person knows inflation exists (and then they buy gold..).
Well yes, I get that of course - I was trying to be concise. The point was just that if the $ has less purchasing power in 2030, the value was lost to the $, and not lost to Bitcoin.
I hope your confidence that stock values
will grow faster than inflation comes good for you (and me).
I refer to 'debasing' as that is the problem that Bitcoin addresses. Inflation isn't the root problem - it's a symptom. Also, inflation has other causes, eg. supply shortages, that Bitcoin does not address.
You're saying: BTC value will grow faster than inflation, faster then the market, "everyone" will switch to crypto in the future (even though it's a huge PIA), AND; that crypto will be exactly the one you've put your value into, rather than the gazillion other shitcoins out there! Sorry, that seems like a really far-fetched bet, especially when as we discussed, worst case is you end up about the same as I would have anyway! There is extremally little reason to hoard BTC now! What about ether? or any of the others??
My
expectation is that Bitcoin will grow waaaay more than inflation and the market.
No, again, I didn't say "
everyone" and I don't know why you keep insisting on a "
switch". See above.
Bitcoin is very different. The briefest, generalised, approximate description of the difference = decentralised and network effect.
"
worst case is you end up about the same as I would have anyway!" ? I don't know what this means.