vanguard target retirement funds and SWR

[kenmoremmm]

i know there are many portfolio blends out there that have been backtested and show SWR's well north of 4%. could someone enlighten me on where the vanguard target retirement land for SWR's? i like the idea of auto-rebalance internal to the target retirement funds, so that's where my money is now, even though expenses are 0.10% higher than admiral share options.

[robartsd]

I'm not sure if there are any tools for back testing a portfolio with a glide path; but it would be easy enough to use any portfolio back testing tool to approximate the allocation of VTINX (the fund that all the target date funds eventually become). 70% bonds seems low to me for someone who is looking for a > 4% withdraw rate. If an all-in-one fund is that appealing to you, but you want more equities the consider a LifeStrategy growth funds.

[ChpBstrd]

ERN did some monte carlo analysis and created a table comparing the probability of success for different withdraw rates, stock/bond allocations, and retirement lengths. One assumption is you stick with an allocation once retired.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/07/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-1-intro/