My little stock tip saga ... almost at its end!

[SweetLife]

All right Mustachians!!! Here goes ... I don't invest yet I am paying down debt ... BUT ... Canada is going to legalize marijuana next year (so they say) AND Leamington Ontario has a lovely little medical marijuana grower called Aphria (APH on stock market cnd)

I bought in ($1300) at $3.89 ... stock is up to $5 something today ... check it out. :)
I like to share the wealth ... I am taking out my initial input ($1300) and todays ($1000) ... as soon as it hits $10/share then let the rest ride :)

So far on the $1300 I've made $647 in the last 10 days ... I don't know what it will do but at the end of October they put one of the "Dragon's Den" Dragon's on their board ...

Looking to get my fire (hair on fire) put out and then start saving ... As soon as I get my 2nd vehicle sold I will post my numbers ...

UPDATE: All bills paid off EVERYTHING!!! WOOP WOOP. Extra cash some gone to paying down mortgage. Some waiting for tax bill (from inheritance) should be very little as offset by investing most of it in RRSP.

Had to put a new roof on the house. Put a patio on the back. New winter and summer tires for the van. And need a couple doors for the house and gave my hubby $10,000 to put towards are renovations in Portugal. Just need to keep a little liquid for accountant fees (for this year only its complicated) and a few thousand emergency. Everything else will be tucked away.

So all those who said it couldn't be done ... made a little over $18,000 on my stock pick up here in Canada. (Which includes APH - which I sold all  at $12.00  bought in at half that .... - and another company ACB which I have been buying and selling keeping the profits).

One or two more weeks and I will be all out :) but I must say I appreciate having had this little bit of fun.

[Heckler]

Sweet!  Here's  another. My VTI I bought yesterday is up 0.67% already and guaranteed not to tank if maryjane doesn't nt get legalized.

[Heckler]

And VTI is paying 1.915% annually instead of the 1.587% that VUN pays in dividends.

[dragoncar]

You had me at "Dragon"

[With This Herring]

Sweet!  Here's  another. My VTI I bought yesterday is up 0.67% already and guaranteed not to tank if maryjane doesn't nt get legalized.

Your name is quite apropos.  :)

I thought the tip was going to be "don't try to pick individual stocks because you don't know the future and the market has already priced in current knowledge."  But, it looks like in the long run this will be a cheap lesson if APH goes south.

Some thoughts:

• If Canada legalizes, APH's competition could include:
• those who are currently growing in Canada and the US illegally.
• all grower businesses in US states that have already legalized.
• local garden centers and any place that already grows plants.
• anyone with the internet who feels up to putting some grow lights in the basement.
• If Canada doesn't legalize, will APH's stock price fall back to its pre-speculation level of $1 to $1.50-ish?
• What is APH's "moat"?  What will keep all the competition from taking APH's market share of weed once the legality barrier comes down?
• Why are you playing around with stock-picking games when you say you have your hair on fire?

[ketchup]

Right now you're playing with fire instead of playing with FIRE.  Quit while you're ahead and direct the gains where you need them the most (sounds like debt).

[Goldielocks]

Good for you to have the sense to take out your original investment as soon as you could.  This is gambling, for sure, but as long as you are playing just with your winnings, and have nothing at stake, it should be very educational for you.

A common scenario (mimic how most people play the casino, too)

up up up up up up OMG up!!!...DOWN! CRASH! oh... wait ---------------wait-------------wait 3 more years-------- up 20% from the low and sell!

All while not sleeping well,  spending every day checking the quotes...

[With This Herring]

Good for you to have the sense to take out your original investment as soon as you could.  This is gambling, for sure, but as long as you are playing just with your winnings, and have nothing at stake, it should be very educational for you.
*snip*

I thought SweetLife just put in MORE.  The plan later is to play with winnings, but at the moment SweetLife has put in $2300 thus far.  Waiting for $10/share is a bad plan.

[Heckler]

Some thoughts:

• If Canada legalizes, APH's competition could include:
• those who are currently growing in Canada and the US illegally.
• all grower businesses in US states that have already legalized.
• local garden centers and any place that already grows plants.
• anyone with the internet who feels up to putting some grow lights in the basement.



You forgot Big Tobacco.  Surely they want their 98% slice of the pie.

[Goldielocks]

Good for you to have the sense to take out your original investment as soon as you could.  This is gambling, for sure, but as long as you are playing just with your winnings, and have nothing at stake, it should be very educational for you.
*snip*

I thought SweetLife just put in MORE.  The plan later is to play with winnings, but at the moment SweetLife has put in $2300 thus far.  Waiting for $10/share is a bad plan.

Oh yeah - punctuation matters, I should pay more attention.  I thought Sweetlife took out the initial input and is waiting to take out the rest as soon as it increases to $10....Huh, Well, good luck to them.  I can't chastise too strongly because I have been there / done that (through DH).  Learned a lot in the process, too, that can only be learned the hard way.   

Sort of neat / weird when the "outside world" invades the forums -- this sort of perception is freakishly common everywhere else, isn't it?  Maybe I can re-post it to the "overheard at work" thread, since I am supposed to be working right now, anyway..   ;-)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote
I like to share the wealth ... I am taking out my initial input ($1300) and todays ($1000) ... as soon as it hits $10/share then let the rest ride :)

[With This Herring]

Some thoughts:

• If Canada legalizes, APH's competition could include:
• those who are currently growing in Canada and the US illegally.
• all grower businesses in US states that have already legalized.
• local garden centers and any place that already grows plants.
• anyone with the internet who feels up to putting some grow lights in the basement.

You forgot Big Tobacco.  Surely they want their 98% slice of the pie. [/list]

Good call!  I wouldn't know these things, as I don't buy individual stocks. :)

[Bumperpuff]

Some thoughts:

• If Canada legalizes, APH's competition could include:
• those who are currently growing in Canada and the US illegally.
• all grower businesses in US states that have already legalized.
• local garden centers and any place that already grows plants.
• anyone with the internet who feels up to putting some grow lights in the basement.

You forgot Big Tobacco.  Surely they want their 98% slice of the pie. [/list]

Good call!  I wouldn't know these things, as I don't buy individual stocks. :)

Most of my individual stocks are in tobacco because I believe that Big Tobacco will move into the marijuana market once it's been legalized. The other stocks I have were my attempt to earn money speculatting on oil prices.  Luckily that's only cost me a couple grand.

My individual holdings are all from my pre-MMM days. Subsequent investments have been to my whole US, and whole world index funds.

[Heckler]

And what about Shoppers Drugmart?  You heard it here first that they'll be taking a slice of the pie too.  (Actually, I just read that in Moneysense)

[SweetLife]

OK Ok ok ... I know guys :) And thank you for responding :) Face punches accepted ... I did in fact take another $1000 from my LOC and buy more stocks ... (2300$) I currently have 493 shares ... which I  bought between $3.89 and $4.60 ... The stock this morning is up to Market price of $6.41 ... So it says I've made $932 ... rather than wait till $1000 I'm taking that out ... but will leave the rest in for another week or so ... I am not going to "go for broke" ... and I don't usually dabble with any individual stocks as I am throwing my money at my bills LOC ... this is just for fun... and so far it's been fun fun fun :)

MY VCN is also up by 12.25% :) but there isn't a lot in there yet ... That was my first purchase after getting my credit cards paid off :) but LOC is still a beast and my hair is still on FIRE!!!

But more on that soon :) Thanks again for responding I love this forum!!!

[SweetLife]

AND SOLD!!! 140 shares for $932 which will be put IMMEDIATELY (when it lands in my account) to my LOC :)

And hopefully our Jeep will be sold today for $2500 (also to go immediately into my LOC) :)

Fingers crossed all!!!

[SweetLife]

Good for you to have the sense to take out your original investment as soon as you could.  This is gambling, for sure, but as long as you are playing just with your winnings, and have nothing at stake, it should be very educational for you.

A common scenario (mimic how most people play the casino, too)

up up up up up up OMG up!!!...DOWN! CRASH! oh... wait ---------------wait-------------wait 3 more years-------- up 20% from the low and sell!

All while not sleeping well,  spending every day checking the quotes...

That would be my SISTER at the Casino lol... I went with her and her friend once .... it went like this ... Put in $100 ... WIN $300 ... (between 3 of us) Me "Cash me out" Them "WHAT????!!!" Me "Just do it" Them "OK" Me  ... hee hee money back in pocket ... Gives back $100 ok play again ... Them ????!!!! ..
Lose lose lose ... win win win ... up $450 ... Me "Cash me out" ... put extra money in pocket ....

I ended up the only one going home with winnings lol... Ended up being around $325 ... but I could have just as easily lost that first $100 entirely ... but I didn't :)

I'm not a casino going or in fact much of a gambler ... this stock thing was a one off... other than my Vanguards that I am anxious to start getting into more ... but that will wait until this LOC is GONERS :)

[arebelspy]

I'm not a casino going or in fact much of a gambler

[dividendman]

I read this and thought it would be a post about investing in Treasury Inflation Protected securities.

[Tegus]

We haven't seen this kind of industry breakout since the 1920s.

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/midas-letter/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/midas-letter/marijuana-stocks-stealing-all-of-the-action-in-canada-by-unprecedented-volumes

[SweetLife]

Well... I MUST say it has been interesting :) this bit of stock fun ... I DID sell 140 of my stocks when it was up top and took the $932 ... the stock tumbled yesterday but it is still up. Will check on it today if it does not recover sufficiently I will just take out my original $2000. Still being up.

BEST news of the weekend???? I sold my Jeep that was costing me in Gas/insurance and repairs. Now we are again a one vehicle family (I work close enough to home to bike/walk.) Getting my numbers together so excited now ... big check coming next week from a lot of overtime I have been doing to get rid of that line of credit that has been a monkey on my back for more years than I will admit to.

:) Thank you again everyone for taking a look :)

[Mattzlaff]

Canopy growth corp (CGC.TO), I think is Canada's biggest marijuana producer/seller/whatever.

3 months ago the stock was worth something like 2.80.

It peaked at 16.30 Nov 16. It had fallen down to 8$ish in the following days to recover 26% today. I think as long as it's a specialty producer the stocks will continue to do this in this fashion until it is in fact legalized. Then big agriculture will get it's hands in on it...

If you're comfortable playing around with the stock right now by all means, but I would prefer to invest in index funds and watch a continual easy, somewhat worry free ride into FIRE.

[Tegus]

My hubby managed to catch Canopy at $8 on Tuesday on a limit order....I bought Aphria the same day and  appreciated 20 percent. My Organigram which I bought in October has appreciated 140%.  No doubt the 'bubble' will burst again but i think that it's a series of bubbles until legalization and if you have the stomach for volatility and buy at the dips there is serious money to be made.

[SweetLife]

Hey Tegus!! Yes Tuesday was a "crash" day ... but it has come back up again ... the dip was due to Health Canada lowering the amount from 6grms to 3grms per day for veterans.  It is interesting for me more than anything else lol... :)

[SweetLife]

Canopy growth corp (CGC.TO), I think is Canada's biggest marijuana producer/seller/whatever.

3 months ago the stock was worth something like 2.80.

It peaked at 16.30 Nov 16. It had fallen down to 8$ish in the following days to recover 26% today. I think as long as it's a specialty producer the stocks will continue to do this in this fashion until it is in fact legalized. Then big agriculture will get it's hands in on it...

If you're comfortable playing around with the stock right now by all means, but I would prefer to invest in index funds and watch a continual easy, somewhat worry free ride into FIRE.

Really Mattzlaff ... I'm not comfortable with it ...it was just a fun experiment for me ... And so far it has been good to me ... I am waiting to see if it will hit $8 and I will sell it all :)

[Le Poisson]

I was talking with coworker about these sorts of one-off stock trades the other day. He shared with me how much he made on the USAirline deal a couple years back. I asked how he's done on his deals since, and it hasn't worked out so great... but the ONE time...

I like tracking these stocks on the "fake Money try gambling investing for free" things all the major banks have out, but yeah, most of us I think are playing the same buy-hold game with our money tucked into Vanguard ETFs.

I do. and every day I update my little ETF spreadsheet and sweat over the news unnecessarily while knowing that the funds always win - its how I roll.

[SweetLife]

Update on this stock for anyone interested ... it is up to $6.32 today and they have been approved to go onto the Toronto Stock Exchange where the only other Marijuana company is being traded at $12-$13 ...
I am still planning on selling once it hits $10.00 ... it has been fun though!!! :)

[ChpBstrd]

Here's a tip. Pay off your debt instead of gambling with what will soon be a penny stock.

I've seen many appealing "stories" sold to newbie investors and they all end up the same. In fact, if you can fill out some paperwork and rent a small office, you could found such a company and maybe sell your newly created shares for millions. Then just declare it bankrupt and walk. Perfectly legal. "Bummer, we ran out of investor cash before legalization could occur." Getting onto an exchange does not make a company legit.

My brother is a broker, and he constantly has to talk his clients out of putting their life savings into schemes they heard about on the internet to sell what would become houseplants if they were legalized.

Critical thinking questions:

Are there public-traded pot companies operating in Amsterdam and making bajillions? If not, why not?

If weed consumption will become ubiquitous upon legalization, why is tobacco smoking declining? Nicotine is even said to be more addictive.

Why would a startup company with no existing distribution channels, no scaled production systems, no brand recognition, no experience, and higher borrowing costs than other companies be profitable selling a plant anyone could grow at a post-legalization price that will rival kale? Why would they beat a thousand Bubbas at a thousand farmer's markets?

[TheAnonOne]

Update on this stock for anyone interested ... it is up to $6.32 today and they have been approved to go onto the Toronto Stock Exchange where the only other Marijuana company is being traded at $12-$13 ...
I am still planning on selling once it hits $10.00 ... it has been fun though!!! :)

Not to be brash but, we're talking about $1,300?

Most people here made $50,000 to $150,000 in the last 2 or 3 months.

What's the big deal with this? Would you risk $500,000 on this stock or only $1,000? Pay off your debt and join us in the big leagues before you go broke gambling.

[SweetLife]

OMG ... ok folks ... that's my last post ... seriously people ... I am paying off my debts
I'll be sure not to post anything until I am investing over $100,000 ... thanks

[Kaspian]

Haha... I don't think anyone implied that, exactly.  ...But it's like you joined a gun club and on your first day skipped safety class to run straight for fully automatic machine gun section.

What they're saying is that maybe  (big fucking MAYBE) with no debt and a solid index portfolio (possibly diversified) already under the belt, well on your way to FIRE, then perhaps you can toss around a grand or two of fun money.  Never anything more than 5% of your portfolio (tops!).

For the record, I think some of the weed companies might do well (if their accountants aren't stoned) but if it does become legal they'll  rocket in worth followed by the biggest plummet as Shoppers, Rexall, Jean Coutu, and Walmart all stomp the little guy.  You don't hear much about the billionaire Canadian apple, potato, and cucumber barons do you?  No.  Weed's a crop, just like any other.  If legalized, you'd theoretically be just as well off investing in basil or oregano. 

[DavidAnnArbor]

if their accountants aren't stoned

That's the funniest post for the day, ha. Gave me a good chuckle.

[SweetLife]

Haha... I don't think anyone implied that, exactly.  ...But it's like you joined a gun club and on your first day skipped safety class to run straight for fully automatic machine gun section.

What they're saying is that maybe  (big fucking MAYBE) with no debt and a solid index portfolio (possibly diversified) already under the belt, well on your way to FIRE, then perhaps you can toss around a grand or two of fun money.  Never anything more than 5% of your portfolio (tops!).

For the record, I think some of the weed companies might do well (if their accountants aren't stoned) but if it does become legal they'll  rocket in worth followed by the biggest plummet as Shoppers, Rexall, Jean Coutu, and Walmart all stomp the little guy.  You don't hear much about the billionaire Canadian apple, potato, and cucumber barons do you?  No.  Weed's a crop, just like any other.  If legalized, you'd theoretically be just as well off investing in basil or oregano.

I think the biggest thing in this sector right now is that no one KNOWS yet how it will happen/be regulated ... thus the speculation .... Will everyone be able to "grow their own?", or will (in typical government fashion wanting to make money) it have to be dispensed by "certified growers/dispensers" companies?? IMHO that is where it will likely go and the company in question has a very low $/gram cost ... The reason it will likely go that way is that there are just too many ramifications to "grow your own/no limits" ... a huge portion of the Criminal Code would have to be rewritten/scrapped, and then there would be the question of what would happen to all of those "old" convictions involving small amounts of weed? The only cost-effective (with the least amount of disruption to current practises) would be the "certified growers/dispensers" ... course I could be complete wrong too ... that is just what I believe.

The very small amount of fun I have  been having with this stock is coming to an end as I will sell shortly to cover my "zero % interest credit card" ending in June. Which coincidentally is when the marijuana legalisation is suppose to be announced ... but I will get out before then ;)
 

[SweetLife]

Question... shortly this is going to happen....Final approval of the listing is subject to Aphria meeting certain standard and customary conditions required by the TSX, to be finalized on or before the TSX imposed May 3rd, 2017 deadline. Aphria is confident that it will satisfy all requirements and will issue a statement once the TSX issues a bulletin confirming the date on which trading on the TSX will commence. Upon completion of the final listing requirements, Aphria's common shares will be delisted from the TSX Venture Exchange and shares in the Company will commence trading on the TSX."

So the shares that I have currently on are the Venture exchange and will be delisted???? and the company will commence trading on the TSX ... does that mean I have to do anything with my current shares??? Or do they get moved over to the TSX???

Anyone know? Thanks :)

[Goldielocks]

Question... shortly this is going to happen....Final approval of the listing is subject to Aphria meeting certain standard and customary conditions required by the TSX, to be finalized on or before the TSX imposed May 3rd, 2017 deadline. Aphria is confident that it will satisfy all requirements and will issue a statement once the TSX issues a bulletin confirming the date on which trading on the TSX will commence. Upon completion of the final listing requirements, Aphria's common shares will be delisted from the TSX Venture Exchange and shares in the Company will commence trading on the TSX."

So the shares that I have currently on are the Venture exchange and will be delisted???? and the company will commence trading on the TSX ... does that mean I have to do anything with my current shares??? Or do they get moved over to the TSX???

Anyone know? Thanks :)

When this happened to DH, the company sent paperwork, and they just rolled over somehow to the TSX.  I don't think he received a payout. Another startup just bought a company with a TSX listing already, and started trading under that, just changing ownership and name registration.

[Heckler]

I'm truly curious on how the weed did compared to my VTI.  I'm up 10.39% since the smartass post on Nov 14, plus a 0.589% dividend (1/4 of VTIs current 2.356% annual dividend).  APH?

[SweetLife]

Since November (when I bought the stock) at $3.89 --- it is up to $6.61

[Heckler]

Short term, aph wins. Lets talk in two years.

[marty998]

Short term, aph wins. Lets talk in two years.

Pwned

Can't shift the goalposts cos you don't like the result!

[SweetLife]

Short term, aph wins. Lets talk in two years.

Pwned

Can't shift the goalposts cos you don't like the result!

Lol ... ;)

[SweetLife]

Short term, aph wins. Lets talk in two years.

Which goes back to my original post that says I'm not keeping this stock as part of my portfolio ... will be selling when (not if) it hits $10

:)

[Retire-Canada]

I'm truly curious on how the weed did compared to my VTI.  I'm up 10.39% since the smartass post on Nov 14, plus a 0.589% dividend (1/4 of VTIs current 2.356% annual dividend).  APH?

I've got the 12 month trailing dividend from VTI as 1.88% where did you get the 2.536% from?

http://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vti/quote.html

[johnny847]

I've missed you Mr Percentage

[Retire-Canada]

I've missed you Mr Percentage

I'm drinking right now. I'll see if I can channel him. ;)

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Stock pickers have competition like Fidelity Contrafund, which with a 0.53% management fee spends about $10 million every week on researching and purchasing stocks.  Sometimes they beat the S&P 500, sometimes they don't.  Just know when you're trying to find stocks, you have competition like this with far more experts on staff than you could afford spending all their working days trying to pick stocks.  That's just one fund, too.

That's one of my reasons for going with the market return.  When two active funds disagree, and one buys a stock while the other sells it, they set a market price that I can pickup at low cost using an index fund.  Many individual companies do go bankrupt each year, but the market itself isn't likely to do that.

[[a]bort]

What's with the change of Subject line for this wonderful thread? I take it as a shot at the risk of loading up on a weed stock inside of a TFSA (like the young dudes in my office are doing), only for it to become non-compliant, get delisted, and getting fined 50% of the value?

[SweetLife]

Oh and the most fun about these two stocks ... one was a tip from my wonderful auto worker brother (who didn't invest) and the other is our janitor at work (who is heavily invested and has not, like I have, taken out his profits).

Be that as it may I researched each stock (much like I did with the ETF's advised by CCC) and decided on my own whether or not it would be a good short term game.

It has been.

Now back to the real world lol...

[Rockies]

The most dangerous risk when investing in these types of gambling stocks is that you might actually get lucky and make money off of it. This teaches your brain that its okay to try this thing again.

Just go ask Norm Macdonald and a lot of other gambling addicts, their addiction was catalyzed by a lucky break when they made excessive amounts of money.

Pray that you don't fall into the same trap.

[okits]

I am waiting to see if it will hit $8 and I will sell it all :)

I am still planning on selling once it hits $10.00

will be selling when (not if) it hits $10

UPDATE: Jan 7, 2018
I sold all  at $12.00 

It would be useful to be aware that you don't always stick to limits you set for yourself.  Please don't speculate with any money you can't afford to lose.  (And remember, you owe taxes on your realized investment gains.)

[DavidAnnArbor]

I'm not sure that going from $10 to $12 in about a year was any better than the total stock market index.

[SweetLife]

Oh my GOODNESS!!! It's been some time since I updated this post ... but here is the WONDERFUL news to all those who didn't believe it could be true... I did end up selling all of my Aphria stock with quite a lovely profit...then I decided to buy into a little company called Aurora ... (along with my ETF's per the Canadian Couch potato) ... but thanks to Aurora I have in the last 16 months  pulled out $18,300 in profit ... which has paid off my patio project (OMG catastrophe...but thankfully found a reliable and meticulous carpenter to fix all the damage done by the previous guy AND make it as it should have been ...) , my husband's attic storage project, roof, self funded trip to Morocco, Portugal and around AND also allowed me to add an extra $150/week to my mortgage so it is getting smaller and smaller .... and is our only debt at this point.

Thanks to this wonderful Blog (thanks MMM) we have continued to own only one vehicle though everyone at work seems to have at least 2 vehicles (one the seemingly required massive pick up!!) (I love our minivan) and don't plan on buying anything "new" as long as we have this vehicle (and then it will never be new)... I have come to appreciate the time away from the grind that this money has allowed me to take and fund time for medical issues as well as family time. I have also appreciated the time that I now take as my own ... I spent the last 2 years "not" taking any overtime and spending that extra time with my family.

So though I did go against the grain by "stock picking" a few times (take a look at Eve & Co ... Strathroy Ontario company) I have been lucky and have already made my investment back a few times over ... I am very  thankful for all of the advice from this community! I can't wait to post again when we have our last mortgage payment ...

Our next adventure comes shortly as we are returning to Portugal with a nice vacation in the Azores AND Porto Santo (beach island) for a few days .... I am SOOOOOO excited!!! I haven't read much recently in your posts as my days have been filled with my 4 year old and life ... but I wish everyone the best and hope to catch up soon!

Life is SWEET for Sweetlife :)