I agree- it is an excellent dilemma- just trying to get unbiased feedback from like minded people.
I always enjoy hearing other folks opinions- even if I don't agree, it keeps me honest :)
re: how to buy at a discount.... arbitrage happens in all markets at various times. Coupon folks often walk out of the grocery store with stuff for free, stock dealers and currency traders often make money on inefficiencies in markets, etc. Even MMM's most recent article is basically about arbitrage- by having time freedom and saving through living off-peak. Right now with the foreclosure markets being overwhelmed, there are many banks, HOA's, and all kinds of folks who are stuck with property they don't want to own. The first house my wife and I bought here together in the US was purchased at auction for 35k. It had sold previously for 105K. It was cute as a button, and though it had a couple of big fixes needed, it was in a very desirable vacation location. It was marketed by a realtor that was over 2 hours away, who had no idea what they had- they just wanted it sold. because it needed several fixes, and had a couple of minor code violations it was marketed with big red x's and cash only, etc- keep in mind the people selling it had never actually laid eyes on the property. We bought it for 35, put about 10 into it, and turned it into a vacation rental that grossed 30K (net 20) in it's first year of operation. This is happening all over the place in the real estate market right now. They are overwhelmed with the material they have and are having a tough time getting it all marketed and sold correctly. Additionally , with HUD, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac policies many things get fixed, etc. saving money- you just have to watch closely, and act aggressively when you see the opportunity.
We are still kicking ourselves over a missed chance in a nearby city. There was a house in a mid-grade area of town- not the worst part (which is very undesirable) but definitely a mid-level area- house prices run 30-50K there in good shape. There was a HUD home that had been vandalized and steadily dropping in price, until it was 4500 dollars. No joke, the kicker is, after it was vandalized HUD had a contractor go in and fix the house- it was in rental ready condition (sans appliances) and could be bought for $4500, it would have rented over night for 600/month. Needless to say we missed it by seconds, and it probably went to an insider... but there are deals like that out there- it boggles my mind!
So this condo is basically one that was foreclosed, improperly winterized and had some water damage. Everything is fixed and it is gorgeous now. But it got caught between being an open listing and going to auction, and we managed to get our offer accepted and pulled out of the auction pool. I think that it is an amazing deal on a wonderful house- if it was not for the tunnel, I would be happy to ride my bike the 15 miles each way to work!!