Buy a car NOW?

[baconschteam]

This would be considered "timing the market" but I'll ask the question anyway. If I feel like I'll need to buy a car in the next year might it make sense to pull the trigger NOW? Assuming there's about to be massive disruption of global supply chains..

[Paper Chaser]

You and everybody else have had the same idea. Sales jumped a lot last month as people tried to beat the tariffs.

[FINate]

You're a bit late to the party. We did this in December (plus some new appliances and other larger purchases) with the expectation that Trump was serious about his tariff threats.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/do-you-have-a-pre-tariffs-shopping-list/

Even my FIL called yesterday in a panic about replacing a vehicle ASAP.

If you can find a good deal on a vehicle you want and actually need (that's always the big question, do you really it?), then I'd buy sooner rather than later. You may not get dealer incentives at this point, but hopefully avoid markups and later supply chain issues.

[baconschteam]

I understand I'm a bit late for this question. But still asking if people think it currently makes sense or am I just catching the panic.

[FINate]

If you actually need a car in the next year and can find what you want now at a reasonable price then I wouldn't wait.

Of course, these tariffs could crash the global economy, in which case very few cars sell and prices collapse. Really, who knows what'll happen. In our case it was less about the money and more about not wanting to deal with supply chain and reliability issues down the road.

[baconschteam]

If you actually need a car in the next year and can find what you want now at a reasonable price then I wouldn't wait.

Of course, these tariffs could crash the global economy, in which case very few cars sell and prices collapse. Really, who knows what'll happen. In our case it was less about the money and more about not wanting to deal with supply chain and reliability issues down the road.

I guess that's part of the question (unknowable). Seems like tariffs will drive prices up. Even if there is a big economic crash, wouldn't it still include lots of inflation in this specific instance? Or is it somewhat constant that in a big crash stuff will generally be cheap because people can't afford stuff? Sorry that I'm a bit naive. I do know that heavy inflation was present during the great depression.

[SmashYourSmartPhone]

If I feel like I'll need to buy a car in the next year might it make sense to pull the trigger NOW? Assuming there's about to be massive disruption of global supply chains..

What's wrong with your current car that it needs replacement?

Doing the repairs it needs and keeping it, perhaps stocking a few common wear items, would be more reasonable into an uncertain future compared to taking on a substantial depreciating asset.

[baconschteam]

If I feel like I'll need to buy a car in the next year might it make sense to pull the trigger NOW? Assuming there's about to be massive disruption of global supply chains..

What's wrong with your current car that it needs replacement?

I purchased an older hybrid (Lexus RX 400h) as our backup car (and to use for towing). We are driving it less than I thought we would and I'm concerned about the effect this will have on the traction battery. The (new) 12v battery dies every few weeks - maybe there is a parasitic draw, or maybe it's just a somewhat complex old car that slowly draws power. It'll need a new timing belt and a tune-up soon, which is quite a bit more complicated than I'm used to (learned wrenching on my old Prius). So really we'd be trading in one car for another, but I'd like to get something a little newer and a little less trouble. I could just deal with it, but figured it might be an optimal time to buy something, and then sell the Lexus in a few months when inflation on car prices really starts to set in.

[Bartlebooth]

You should buy five cars right now since you think you know what prices are going to do.  And sell them in a few months for profit!

Is your career day trading cars?  Do you want it to be?  Is income from car trading part of your investment plan?  Why try to make money on it?

Just buy the car when you need it.

[Christof]

I guess that's part of the question (unknowable). Seems like tariffs will drive prices up. Even if there is a big economic crash, wouldn't it still include lots of inflation in this specific instance? Or is it somewhat constant that in a big crash stuff will generally be cheap because people can't afford stuff? Sorry that I'm a bit naive. I do know that heavy inflation was present during the great depression.

A hundred years ago in Germany with hyperinflation, if you controlled a money-making asset, you were more likely to end up well.

Inflation is good if you owe money and your business is thriving but bad if you own money.

TL;DR
Good: Borrow money for a fixed rate before anyone realizes anything, keep running a business that makes a lot of money in time of depression.

Bad: Anything else

Bonus information: Unless you are aware of anything contradictory, you are people.

[FINate]

If you actually need a car in the next year and can find what you want now at a reasonable price then I wouldn't wait.

Of course, these tariffs could crash the global economy, in which case very few cars sell and prices collapse. Really, who knows what'll happen. In our case it was less about the money and more about not wanting to deal with supply chain and reliability issues down the road.

I guess that's part of the question (unknowable). Seems like tariffs will drive prices up. Even if there is a big economic crash, wouldn't it still include lots of inflation in this specific instance? Or is it somewhat constant that in a big crash stuff will generally be cheap because people can't afford stuff? Sorry that I'm a bit naive. I do know that heavy inflation was present during the great depression.

There was deflation during the Great Depression, the opposite if inflation with prices falling. For a bunch of reasons deflation is way worse than inflation, which is why the Fed took extreme measures in the wake of the Great Recession to prevent it.

I think we're probably in for some stagflation in the years ahead, which is the worst of both words with a weak economy and rising prices. Importation of cheap goods has helped to hold down inflation in the US for at least several decades. So large tariffs are an immediate inflationary shock, which may also reduce economic growth for years. We could see modest price increases on domestically produced products, while imports are simply out of reach for most.

[Paper Chaser]

If the Lexus is barely driven enough that it's concerning to you, why spend new car money to replace it? The way that you beat tariffs is to avoid buying new stuff. That means spend a little to maintain your current vehicles instead of opting to get replace them with new, expensive ones that will also just sit and depreciate. The repair bill on the Lexus is probably less than sales tax on a new vehicle.

If there truly isn't enough need for the Lexus, then sell it and simplify your life.

[baconschteam]

If the Lexus is barely driven enough that it's concerning to you, why spend new car money to replace it? The way that you beat tariffs is to avoid buying new stuff. That means spend a little to maintain your current vehicles instead of opting to get replace them with new, expensive ones that will also just sit and depreciate. The repair bill on the Lexus is probably less than sales tax on a new vehicle.

If there truly isn't enough need for the Lexus, then sell it and simplify your life.

Not talking new car, just better car. But, I hear ya, I should probably just chill and practice tightening my belt. Is there anything in particular that one SHOULD do if expecting to experience a period of stagflation?

[m8547]

If I feel like I'll need to buy a car in the next year might it make sense to pull the trigger NOW? Assuming there's about to be massive disruption of global supply chains..

What's wrong with your current car that it needs replacement?

I purchased an older hybrid (Lexus RX 400h) as our backup car (and to use for towing). We are driving it less than I thought we would and I'm concerned about the effect this will have on the traction battery. The (new) 12v battery dies every few weeks - maybe there is a parasitic draw, or maybe it's just a somewhat complex old car that slowly draws power. It'll need a new timing belt and a tune-up soon, which is quite a bit more complicated than I'm used to (learned wrenching on my old Prius). So really we'd be trading in one car for another, but I'd like to get something a little newer and a little less trouble. I could just deal with it, but figured it might be an optimal time to buy something, and then sell the Lexus in a few months when inflation on car prices really starts to set in.

How often do you drive it? The traction battery should be fine. It's isolated by relays when the car is off, and it's going to degrade from time and temperature whether or not you drive it. You might not take advantage of the fuel savings of a hybrid, so if you can sell it and buy a similar non-hybrid you might be better off. But as a normal person, not a dealer, you'll lose enough (and take on enough risk with another used car) on the transaction that it's very unlikely to be worth it.

The average car is parked something like 97% of the time. If yours is parked 99% of the time that isn't much different. Just plug it into a battery maintainer to keep the battery topped up. Or get a solar one if you park away from convenient electricity.

[GilesMM]

I bought a (used) car last week.  The dealer I bought from said the manufacturer was suspending most imports to the US.  They had exactly 3 of their most popular vehicle. So they won't be selling much in the way of new cars for a while.  In the meantime, they will focus on used sales.  If this continues, I expect the shortage of new cars to cause used car prices to rise, just like COVID times.

[SpareChange]

I bought a (used) car last week.  The dealer I bought from said the manufacturer was suspending most imports to the US.  They had exactly 3 of their most popular vehicle. So they won't be selling much in the way of new cars for a while.  In the meantime, they will focus on used sales.  If this continues, I expect the shortage of new cars to cause used car prices to rise, just like COVID times.

Which manufacturer?

[Cassie]

I had a 17 year old Toyota Corolla with only 73k miles. My plan was to drive it until it needed expensive repairs. In January I bought a new car off the lot and got a good deal. The tariffs drove my decision but I am loving the new safety features like the back up camera and how nice it is to drive. My last new car was 32 years ago. Since I’m a senior I’m glad that I bought it while I can drive and enjoy it.