Do you have a pre-tariffs shopping list?

[ChpBstrd]

IF the president-elect keeps his promise to set very high tariffs on stuff from China and 10% tariffs from everywhere else, we can expect prices to immediately rise. I think it would be hard for the incoming administration not to make good on this promise in the first half of 2025.

Given these facts, it seems like a good time to load up on certain consumable supplies and durable goods while prices are still at pre-tariff levels. Specifically, I want to pre-purchase things for which China constitutes the bulk of the supply.

Looking for your ideas and additions here, because I'm not accustomed to purchasing things until I need them.

Consumables:
-Shoes (athletic, casual, and dress)
-Clothing and socks
-Light bulbs
-Tool consumables, like saw blades, sandpaper, screws and nails, bits, discs, etc.
-Water filters for the fridge
-Pharmaceuticals
-HVAC air filters

Durables:
-Computers, connectors, and peripherals
-Batteries, including lithium-ion batteries for various things you might have like computers
-Phones
-Tools
-Tires for cars and bikes
-Auto parts that I anticipate replacing (battery, timing belts, regular belts, hoses, brake pads, oil filter...)
-TV (really torn on this one - my 2012 Samsung is going strong, but...)
-Appliances or appliance parts (really torn on this one, how do you hedge against a washer breaking down next year?)
-Sheets and towels
-House repair items like wire, outlets, plumbing fixtures, toilet flappers, faucets, etc.

Basically, a lot of these items might go up dramatically in price over the course of the next year, so if they must be bought anyway buying them now instead of later might have a double-digit ROI.

What would you add?

[spartana]

Just a car. Just read that mid-priced new cars could cost approx $7k more due to tariffs. Which will likely impact the used car market with higher demand and prices. I guess I better get off my butt and go get a car...or not.

"Experts estimate that Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on imported auto parts and automobiles will add as much as $7,000 to the cost of the average-priced new car."

[Cranky]

We’ve actually just ordered a new car and it should be in by Christmas. But we were going to get around to that anyway.

I don’t buy too much that isn’t secondhand otherwise.

[sonofsven]

Just a car. Just read that mid-priced new cars could cost approx $7k more due to tariffs. Which will likely impact the used car market with higher demand and prices. I guess I better get off my butt and go get a car...or not.

"Experts estimate that Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on imported auto parts and automobiles will add as much as $7,000 to the cost of the average-priced new car."

But the new Patriot Teslas will be freeee!

[yachi]

I'm not sure about wire, we already make a lot of it domestically, although certainly not all of it.  But the price of it moves lockstep with the price of copper, which moves up and down based on economic cycles.

[Sibley]

Am getting sheets, they can sit in storage for now. Considering a laptop.

Cat food, litter, new litterboxes. Don't need toys.

I just got new winter sweaters. Considering if I need to replace any of my winter gear.

House projects are on indefinite hold.

Will stock up on certain personal care consumables by the end of the year to use up FSA money.

[GilesMM]

We live frugally and don’t buy much stuff. We have way too much junk as it is!

[uniwelder]

I'm thinking about solar panels, most of which are made in China and already have tariffs placed on them.  I realize Chinese companies have been getting around a lot of tariffs by exporting to Vietnam or other SE Asian countries, then having them shipped to the US.  However, I'm guessing those loopholes may get closed and tariffs are likely to increase.  Tariffs on solar panels were 25% and I believe have been raised just recently to 50%.  I can find panels currently for about $0.25-$0.30 per watt, so I'm curious how that may change.

[NorCal]

I do corporate budgeting for work. I currently do consulting, and have minor exposure to a number of different industries.

I’ll just say that whatever you expect to heavily change in price may be wrong. While completely unexpected in things might change a lot. I’ve seen a number of industries and the more I learn, the more I realize I don’t know.

Whatever you think is produced domestically probably isn’t. At least not entirely. A prior client went bankrupt in Trump tariffs V.1. They produced automotive parts in California and North Carolina.  It was an entirely domestic manufacturer taken out by tariffs on their input components.

As a counter-example, a current client distributes a lot of random everyday consumer items you’d probably recognize but never give a second thought to.  They went to the effort (as did many others) to diversify their supply chain after Covid. While they still rely on China, they have alternative suppliers in Vietnam.  Global tariffs would push prices on their products dramatically. Tariffs targeted at China would probably have minimal impact.

My only recommendation would be to pull forward any big purchases. The smaller stuff isn’t predictable enough to be actionable. 

I’d also consider refinancing anything it makes sense to. These tariffs have the potential to be highly inflationary, although details matter.  It’s not guaranteed, but I won’t be surprised if interest rates start climbing again next year.

My only other prediction is we might have some mini supply chain disruptions in Q4 and early Q1, as companies rush to stock up on inventory before tariffs kick in.

[AccidentialMustache]

Yeah, I was going to say I'd never stock up on light bulbs. LEDs mostly last forever and don't have that price premium anymore. Even if they doubled in price you'd be paying less than a Benjamin over the 4 year term.

I'd worry about computer and phone as the big ones if you are nearing end of life on either, for whatever definition of end of life you use.

And vehicles. I don't love that one. Not that we need a new vehicle, but that we might within the 4 years or before supply/cost returns to normal afterwards. The 2009 fit isn't getting any younger ya know? And rust is going to get it eventually. Or, you know, teen driver and an accident that totals it which would not take much at this point.

[spartana]

Just a car. Just read that mid-priced new cars could cost approx $7k more due to tariffs. Which will likely impact the used car market with higher demand and prices. I guess I better get off my butt and go get a car...or not.

"Experts estimate that Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on imported auto parts and automobiles will add as much as $7,000 to the cost of the average-priced new car."

But the new Patriot Teslas will be freeee!

No way. I'm holding out for a Cybertruck. Mainly because I like butt ugly and weird, but now I can lease one for $1068/month with a $7500 down payment!
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a62853378/tesla-cybertruck-leases-start/

I got a feeling both new cars and used cars will be high enough priced we will think it's 2020-2023 again. "Yes I will buy your rust bucket 1975 Ford Pinto with its magical exploding gas tank for $20k).

[KYFIRE]

I'm thinking about solar panels, most of which are made in China and already have tariffs placed on them.  I realize Chinese companies have been getting around a lot of tariffs by exporting to Vietnam or other SE Asian countries, then having them shipped to the US.  However, I'm guessing those loopholes may get closed and tariffs are likely to increase.  Tariffs on solar panels were 25% and I believe have been raised just recently to 50%.  I can find panels currently for about $0.25-$0.30 per watt, so I'm curious how that may change.

This is the one I'm worried about.  Looking at Building system and I'm worried both cost from tariffs and policy changes will make much more expensive (mainly tax credits).

[Retire-Canada]

Up here in Canada there's been a lot of discussion around how the Trump reality TV show - So you want to be President Season 3 will affect us. The consensus is nobody really knows. There will be impacts, but Trump is if nothing else unpredictable. His goal was to get elected and that's all he cares about so election promises aren't going to weigh too heavily on him if he's busy doing the stuff he needs to so he doesn't go to jail when he's out of the White House.

Personally we'll just keep our consumption low. Leave our money invested. And worry about the actual problems that arise when we know what they are. Trump Prepping isn't on our radar despite much of what we buy coming from/through the US.

[reeshau]

My only other prediction is we might have some mini supply chain disruptions in Q4 and early Q1, as companies rush to stock up on inventory before tariffs kick in.

This.  I think, particularly postpandemic, a lot of domestic companies dependent on foreign supply will do the stocking up for us.

We'll run out of toilet paper and kleenex again, though.  Just like with the East Coast teamsters' strike.

[GilesMM]

I'm thinking about solar panels, most of which are made in China and already have tariffs placed on them.  I realize Chinese companies have been getting around a lot of tariffs by exporting to Vietnam or other SE Asian countries, then having them shipped to the US.  However, I'm guessing those loopholes may get closed and tariffs are likely to increase.  Tariffs on solar panels were 25% and I believe have been raised just recently to 50%.  I can find panels currently for about $0.25-$0.30 per watt, so I'm curious how that may change.

Plenty of American made solar panels. We have Silfab 400w and are quite happy with price and quality.


https://www.energysage.com/solar/u-s-solar-panel-manufacturers-list-american-made-solar-panels/

[AccidentialMustache]

Plenty of American made solar panels. We have Silfab 400w and are quite happy with price and quality.


https://www.energysage.com/solar/u-s-solar-panel-manufacturers-list-american-made-solar-panels/

Okay, that's great. Where do their materials supply come from? China is big in aluminum for the frame. How much of the rest are they? If all the components go up 60%, is that really any different than the panel itself going up 60%?

Or more importantly, if all the chinese panels are +60%, do you really think the us manufacturers won't raise their prices +59% to match even if all their materials were natively sourced?

[GilesMM]

Plenty of American made solar panels. We have Silfab 400w and are quite happy with price and quality.


https://www.energysage.com/solar/u-s-solar-panel-manufacturers-list-american-made-solar-panels/

Okay, that's great. Where do their materials supply come from? China is big in aluminum for the frame. How much of the rest are they? If all the components go up 60%, is that really any different than the panel itself going up 60%?

Or more importantly, if all the chinese panels are +60%, do you really think the us manufacturers won't raise their prices +59% to match even if all their materials were natively sourced?

Silfab gets wafers via Norsun which are not Chinese. I doubt changes in Chinese prices will flow directly to all others. Let’s see.

[NorCal]

Plenty of American made solar panels. We have Silfab 400w and are quite happy with price and quality.


https://www.energysage.com/solar/u-s-solar-panel-manufacturers-list-american-made-solar-panels/

Okay, that's great. Where do their materials supply come from? China is big in aluminum for the frame. How much of the rest are they? If all the components go up 60%, is that really any different than the panel itself going up 60%?

Or more importantly, if all the chinese panels are +60%, do you really think the us manufacturers won't raise their prices +59% to match even if all their materials were natively sourced?

A big and under-appreciated part of the IRA was heavy incentives for domestic sourcing. Not just the panels themselves, but the underlying components.

I’m not fully up to date on where things stand, but last I looked there were a number of factories under construction in the US to ramp up domestic supply. Tariffs might hurt in the short term, but this is an industry that should be well positioned in the long term. Google something about clean energy manufacturing under the IRA to see the current state of things.

Automotive is an area I’d be heavily concerned about. Even domestically made cars have most of their components sourced from Mexico, and Mexico sources some of their inputs from China (albeit with some NAFTA related restrictions). Tariffs on China wouldn’t be huge. Tariffs that impact Mexico would be.

We need more details to know whether automotive is a big issue.

Remember that most things Trump says should not be taken literally. There’s lots of rage, bluster, mean tweets combined with little of substance or nuance. While he’s not the brightest bulb in the box, he’s also probably not dumb enough to literally put major tariffs on everything coming into the country.  The inflation and interest rate shocks would be entirely contrary to everything else he’s trying to do.

[kite]

Aren’t we mustachian?

 

[cangelosibrown]

IF
I think it would be hard for the incoming administration not to make good on this promise in the first half of 2025.

Why would it be hard not to? What conceivable consequences would he see if he didn't do it?

The idea that this guy would do something that would immediately and directly increase car prices $7k is absolutely absurd. Unless someone here can tell me how he could blame that price rise on the Democrats, it seems impossible that he would do that.

[geekette]

I heard someone say, and I agree, that since the economy is doing quite well (relatively low inflation and unemployment, wages outpacing inflation), on Trumps first day in office he should just say "there, I fixed it" and go golfing. 

[uniwelder]

Plenty of American made solar panels. We have Silfab 400w and are quite happy with price and quality.


https://www.energysage.com/solar/u-s-solar-panel-manufacturers-list-american-made-solar-panels/

Okay, that's great. Where do their materials supply come from? China is big in aluminum for the frame. How much of the rest are they? If all the components go up 60%, is that really any different than the panel itself going up 60%?

Or more importantly, if all the chinese panels are +60%, do you really think the us manufacturers won't raise their prices +59% to match even if all their materials were natively sourced?

Silfab gets wafers via Norsun which are not Chinese. I doubt changes in Chinese prices will flow directly to all others. Let’s see.

Isn't that how supply and demand works though?  When the first set of tariffs against Chinese solar went through, US made panels also went up accordingly in price.  I have no reason to think that wouldn't follow suit again. 

About Silfab panels, the lowest price I'm seeing is about $0.40/watt, which is 30-50% more expensive than other reputable panels I can buy.  Certainly, I can choose to spend on non-Chinese items and support the US economy, but that's a decision that costs a couple thousand dollars extra.

[uniwelder]

Aren’t we mustachian?

Certainly.  I don't know what your point is though.

I don't buy much consuma sucka stuff, but there are big ticket items which can have quite an impact on your wallet.  If there's reason to believe those items will go up significantly in price, it's smart to talk about strategy. 

[ChpBstrd]

Just a car. Just read that mid-priced new cars could cost approx $7k more due to tariffs. Which will likely impact the used car market with higher demand and prices. I guess I better get off my butt and go get a car...or not.

"Experts estimate that Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on imported auto parts and automobiles will add as much as $7,000 to the cost of the average-priced new car."

Ooooh… that one hits hard. Our cars are 13 and 14 years old.

I’d like to keep them another 4 years, but my replacement cycle is in perfect alignment with another possible peak in tariffs / inflation.

The TCO for, say, a brand new 2025 Corolla hybrid that gets 40% better fuel economy and will last 250k miles is not that much higher than a beater - though I haven’t looked into insurance recently. It’s tempting to replace at least one of our vehicles so that we aren’t in a position of upgrading two cars at the same time.

Yet, living in a potentially permanent one-party state leaves me thinking a wiser priority might be to unload as many physical possessions as possible (cars, real estate, stuff) to maximize more portable forms of wealth. E.g. instead of buying a $25k Corolla hybrid now, I could invest the $25k at a 5% yield to offset some of the damage over the next 4 years while enjoying a slightly lower cost of ownership. Interest earnings plus lower insurance plus lower depreciation minus lower fuel economy might net out to about $7k - but if it’s a wash like that then why drive a beater?

The reason would be that in certain contingencies $25k in a brokerage account would be a lot more useful than a less-used-up car. No easy answers here!

[ChpBstrd]

Aren’t we mustachian?

MMM had a post somewhere in which he described his habit of loading up on stuff if it was on sale. If it’s something you’re going to buy anyway, it’s a good use of cash to take advantage of any double digit percentage discount.

But no, I’d not recommend buying anything you won’t need in the next few years just because it will be more expensive in the future.

[sonofsven]

"Q4 consumer spending is way up! Look at that Amazing Trump Economy!"
--Future Fox headline.

[reeshau]

Aren’t we mustachian?

MMM had a post somewhere in which he described his habit of loading up on stuff if it was on sale. If it’s something you’re going to buy anyway, it’s a good use of cash to take advantage of any double digit percentage discount.

But no, I’d not recommend buying anything you won’t need in the next few years just because it will be more expensive in the future.

I think he referenced an interview with Andrew Tobias by Johnny Carson.  Johnny asked what the best investment would be for someone with $1,000.  Andrew replied "consumer staples."  The audience thought he was joking, but he meant buy stuff you need when it's on sale.

[spartana]

Just a car. Just read that mid-priced new cars could cost approx $7k more due to tariffs. Which will likely impact the used car market with higher demand and prices. I guess I better get off my butt and go get a car...or not.

"Experts estimate that Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on imported auto parts and automobiles will add as much as $7,000 to the cost of the average-priced new car."

Ooooh… that one hits hard. Our cars are 13 and 14 years old.

I’d like to keep them another 4 years, but my replacement cycle is in perfect alignment with another possible peak in tariffs / inflation.

The TCO for, say, a brand new 2025 Corolla hybrid that gets 40% better fuel economy and will last 250k miles is not that much higher than a beater - though I haven’t looked into insurance recently. It’s tempting to replace at least one of our vehicles so that we aren’t in a position of upgrading two cars at the same time.

Yet, living in a potentially permanent one-party state leaves me thinking a wiser priority might be to unload as many physical possessions as possible (cars, real estate, stuff) to maximize more portable forms of wealth. E.g. instead of buying a $25k Corolla hybrid now, I could invest the $25k at a 5% yield to offset some of the damage over the next 4 years while enjoying a slightly lower cost of ownership. Interest earnings plus lower insurance plus lower depreciation minus lower fuel economy might net out to about $7k - but if it’s a wash like that then why drive a beater?

The reason would be that in certain contingencies $25k in a brokerage account would be a lot more useful than a less-used-up car. No easy answers here!

Like someone mentioned above I'm doubtful that car price would go up that much - although memories of huge price increases for cars during the pandemic car/car parts/supply chain issues make me less doubtful.  I can see them going up by quite a bit though and as a long term fence-sitter on whether to buy or not I think "very soon" might be better than latter. Unless you don't need a car for a long time. I could continue to be car-free but think this probably the right time.

[Loren Ver]

No plans to change our buying.  Our large purchases are staying on schedule, no need to stop the clocks on functioning items any sooner, or start the aging clocks either.  Even if you put in on the shelf at home, the clock has started on many components.

We buy used for many things so the price trickle isn't always 1:1 even for things like washing machines (our last one was $200 used in 2023). 

We might need a newer used car as our 2006 is really going on the wayside, but we are still not liking the post Covid environment so we continue to wait.  No need to hurry into a situation we don't like because of a situation that might happen to prevent a situation that isn't here yet.  Worse comes to worse, we don't replace and maybe we can wait until vehicles swing back around to having dials again since some are removing some of the fancy tech I don't want (a rumor I heard- a girl can dream!). 

Loren

[NorCal]

An important life skill is understanding what you have a reasonable possibility to predict and what you don’t.

Trying to predict potential inflationary impacts from unannounced tariffs on unspecified goods from unspecified countries implemented by unannounced political appointees is a losing game.

I think it’s reasonable to say that there’s more upside risk in inflation than there was a few months ago. But nothing so specific to actually make a shopping list from.

[ChpBstrd]

An important life skill is understanding what you have a reasonable possibility to predict and what you don’t.

Trying to predict potential inflationary impacts from unannounced tariffs on unspecified goods from unspecified countries implemented by unannounced political appointees is a losing game.

I think it’s reasonable to say that there’s more upside risk in inflation than there was a few months ago. But nothing so specific to actually make a shopping list from.

I thought the Trump campaign was very specific about the size and targets of the tariffs: 60%-100% on China and 10-20% on the rest of the world. This plus an immigration crackdown were two pillars of his campaign. He repeated calls for tariffs at almost every campaign stop.

In terms of specific things, it's most of what's sold at WalMart and Amazon, and all the things around your house with Made In China stamped on them. Here's a list of top things the US buys from China by category.

So "we just don't know" does not make sense to me. A better argument might be that a 2nd term Trump might not have any incentive to keep its campaign promises, and that he might prioritize getting key people in key positions, passing another tax cut, and making symbolic gestures toward the border.

But even this argument is contradicted by Trump's record of implementing the tariffs he promised the first time around.

An important caveat is that Trump didn't really get around to his tariffs until 2018 and 2019, so maybe we have a couple of years? But I would argue that Trump circa 2016 (1) was offering time for other countries to remedy causes of trade disputes before hitting them with tariffs, and (2) had not made tariffs as specific a promise as he made them in 2024. That said, tariffs are relatively easy to implement compared to other items, like securing peace deals in Israel and Ukraine, or deporting millions of immigrants.

[roomtempmayo]

We live frugally and don’t buy much stuff. We have way too much junk as it is!

Treating inflation as a single number gives the impression that all sorts of consumption matters equally.  But I don't think all consumption matters equally.  If the price of fresh fruits and vegetables doubles because of a labor shortage in the Central Valley, that seems important because the alternatives to fresh fruits and vegetables aren't good.  But if the price of clothes on Temu doubles or goes 10x, is that all that important?  I don't think so. The alternative isn't that people will be naked, it's just buying less and wearing it for longer.  In my mind, that would probably be good.

The inflation of 2020-2022 bothered people so much, I think, because it was really high in essential life categories, namely housing and food.  A lack of cheap TVs or shirts isn't the same sort of problem at all, and might be a net positive for the environment and society. 

[NorCal]

An important life skill is understanding what you have a reasonable possibility to predict and what you don’t.

Trying to predict potential inflationary impacts from unannounced tariffs on unspecified goods from unspecified countries implemented by unannounced political appointees is a losing game.

I think it’s reasonable to say that there’s more upside risk in inflation than there was a few months ago. But nothing so specific to actually make a shopping list from.

I thought the Trump campaign was very specific about the size and targets of the tariffs: 60%-100% on China and 10-20% on the rest of the world. This plus an immigration crackdown were two pillars of his campaign. He repeated calls for tariffs at almost every campaign stop.

In terms of specific things, it's most of what's sold at WalMart and Amazon, and all the things around your house with Made In China stamped on them. Here's a list of top things the US buys from China by category.

So "we just don't know" does not make sense to me. A better argument might be that a 2nd term Trump might not have any incentive to keep its campaign promises, and that he might prioritize getting key people in key positions, passing another tax cut, and making symbolic gestures toward the border.

But even this argument is contradicted by Trump's record of implementing the tariffs he promised the first time around.

An important caveat is that Trump didn't really get around to his tariffs until 2018 and 2019, so maybe we have a couple of years? But I would argue that Trump circa 2016 (1) was offering time for other countries to remedy causes of trade disputes before hitting them with tariffs, and (2) had not made tariffs as specific a promise as he made them in 2024. That said, tariffs are relatively easy to implement compared to other items, like securing peace deals in Israel and Ukraine, or deporting millions of immigrants.

I’ve seen a few inconsistent numbers thrown around for Trump’s tariff numbers, and admit I dislike listening to his speeches enough that I don’t care to verify.

If you look at the things either Trump or Harris said on the campaign trail about taxes, you pretty quickly come to impossible numbers. This is true of any politician and about 1000x more true with Trump.

If you take his tariff statements and immigration statements and tax statements as literal policy, then you have zero trade, and inflation crisis, and an employment crisis at the same time. While Trump may not fill his cabinet with the brightest bulbs, even they won’t be dumb enough to turn Trumps words into actual policy.

If Trumps first term is a model, there will be lots of rage, bluster, mean tweets, and symbolic actions on all of his priorities. It doesn’t mean you should take his words as literal policy.

[Sibley]

Well, I'm perfectly ok buying 2 sets of sheets for $50. And stocking up on consumables isn't exactly a huge risk, particularly since some of it I have restricted HRA money that is use it or lose it. If it turns out prices don't go way up, ok. But if they do, then it'll save me a bit of money later on.

[GilesMM]

We live frugally and don’t buy much stuff. We have way too much junk as it is!

Treating inflation as a single number gives the impression that all sorts of consumption matters equally.  But I don't think all consumption matters equally.  If the price of fresh fruits and vegetables doubles because of a labor shortage in the Central Valley, that seems important because the alternatives to fresh fruits and vegetables aren't good.  But if the price of clothes on Temu doubles or goes 10x, is that all that important?  I don't think so. The alternative isn't that people will be naked, it's just buying less and wearing it for longer.  In my mind, that would probably be good.

The inflation of 2020-2022 bothered people so much, I think, because it was really high in essential life categories, namely housing and food.  A lack of cheap TVs or shirts isn't the same sort of problem at all, and might be a net positive for the environment and society.

Good point - everyone has their own "personal" inflation number based on what they consume and how their consumption can flex with inflation on the stuff they spend their money.  But I can't see loading up on fresh produce now ahead of some possible tariffs at some unknown date in the future. 

[geekette]

While Trump may not fill his cabinet with the brightest bulbs, even they won’t be dumb enough to turn Trumps words into actual policy.

Oh, how I wish I had your sense of optimism.

[NorCal]

While Trump may not fill his cabinet with the brightest bulbs, even they won’t be dumb enough to turn Trumps words into actual policy.

Oh, how I wish I had your sense of optimism.

Maybe it is irrational hope, but I feel moderately confident that they’d stick to more symbolic moves when treasury department projections show 10%+ inflation with interest rates dramatically spiking.

If he does happen to go that far, the silver lining is that he would rapidly become so unpopular that even Republican senators would start to consider impeachment options.

If you are a believer in the massive inflation scenario, then now is the perfect time to load up on debt. I see the argument for it, but remain unconvinced.

[reeshau]

While Trump may not fill his cabinet with the brightest bulbs, even they won’t be dumb enough to turn Trumps words into actual policy.

Oh, how I wish I had your sense of optimism.

Maybe it is irrational hope, but I feel moderately confident that they’d stick to more symbolic moves when treasury department projections show 10%+ inflation with interest rates dramatically spiking.

They'll replace the economist making those projections with someone who aligns with their thinking.

I am not normally this pessimistic.  I don't think democracy will be dead in four years.  But I do think the proverbial elephant is going to take a big dump, and we'll be cleaning it up for a long time.

[NorCal]

While Trump may not fill his cabinet with the brightest bulbs, even they won’t be dumb enough to turn Trumps words into actual policy.

Oh, how I wish I had your sense of optimism.

Maybe it is irrational hope, but I feel moderately confident that they’d stick to more symbolic moves when treasury department projections show 10%+ inflation with interest rates dramatically spiking.

They'll replace the economist making those projections with someone who aligns with their thinking.

I am not normally this pessimistic.  I don't think democracy will be dead in four years.  But I do think the proverbial elephant is going to take a big dump, and we'll be cleaning it up for a long time.

Maybe.  I know this election got to me because I'm normally a very pragmatic person.  I've suddenly started to get philosophical about it.

I don't think it's hyperbole to say that Trumpism is the biggest threat we've faced in our democracy for many generations.  While the Trump presidency may have a 4 year timeline, Trumpism will have an indefinite timeline as long as we're having elections decided by a couple percentage points.  We won't move past Trumpism until it becomes so unpopular that we see landslide elections like 1984.

I both welcome and dread the federal decision making process that would create elections that extreme.  I know I have the resources to weather that storm, but many people don't. 

In some ways I fear a stable Trump government more than an insane one.  Normalizing loyalty tests in the DOJ and DOD while maintaining stable democratic support is in some ways scarier than a government that acts so irrationally that it rapidly losses any popular mandate.

[GuitarStv]

While Trump may not fill his cabinet with the brightest bulbs, even they won’t be dumb enough to turn Trumps words into actual policy.

Oh, how I wish I had your sense of optimism.

Maybe it is irrational hope, but I feel moderately confident that they’d stick to more symbolic moves when treasury department projections show 10%+ inflation with interest rates dramatically spiking.

They'll replace the economist making those projections with someone who aligns with their thinking.

I am not normally this pessimistic.  I don't think democracy will be dead in four years.  But I do think the proverbial elephant is going to take a big dump, and we'll be cleaning it up for a long time.

Maybe.  I know this election got to me because I'm normally a very pragmatic person.  I've suddenly started to get philosophical about it.

I don't think it's hyperbole to say that Trumpism is the biggest threat we've faced in our democracy for many generations.  While the Trump presidency may have a 4 year timeline, Trumpism will have an indefinite timeline as long as we're having elections decided by a couple percentage points.  We won't move past Trumpism until it becomes so unpopular that we see landslide elections like 1984.

I both welcome and dread the federal decision making process that would create elections that extreme.  I know I have the resources to weather that storm, but many people don't. 

In some ways I fear a stable Trump government more than an insane one.  Normalizing loyalty tests in the DOJ and DOD while maintaining stable democratic support is in some ways scarier than a government that acts so irrationally that it rapidly losses any popular mandate.

At least you know that Trump will ensure you have a stable, hand selected Supreme Court majority for the rest of your lifetime.  :P

[roomtempmayo]

Maybe it is irrational hope, but I feel moderately confident that they’d stick to more symbolic moves when treasury department projections show 10%+ inflation with interest rates dramatically spiking.

While I in no way support his policy proposals, there's also a real systemic damage if he doesn't do much or most of it.  If he shrugs and doesn't do the stuff he promised, then the primary meaning of elections becomes performance and theater.  And if that becomes evident, people start to lose whatever faith they have in democratic processes as a way to change things, leaving us in a very bad spot.

[ChpBstrd]

Had some guys out today to get an estimate to re-roof my house.

It could maybe be patched together another couple of years, but why take the risk?

I'm still really struggling with the notion of keeping our 13 and 14 year old cars and hoping for the best when it's time to replace them in 2-5 years.

[Retire-Canada]

If it's really going to bother you just replace the cars now. Even if it turns out waiting would have been better it's not the end of the world either way.

[Dee18]

Why not replace one car?  Especially if you are considering an EV for which there are incentives that will disappear.

But I would not stock up on car tires unless you expect to use them in the near future.  Tires deteriorate whether they are being used or not.

[bacchi]

It is possible that, if the US goes into a recession, big ticket items will decrease in price despite tariffs because of high unemployment and penny pinching.

[JAYSLOL]

We live frugally and don’t buy much stuff. We have way too much junk as it is!

+1 I mostly still need to declutter regardless of how much more things I might need next year might cost that I could theoretically accumulate, it would do me more harm than good in all likelihood

[spartana]

It is possible that, if the US goes into a recession, big ticket items will decrease in price despite tariffs because of high unemployment and penny pinching.

That's what I was thinking too. I remember during the great recession car companies lowered prices by huge amounts. Hyundai even had a "buy one get one free" deal on their Rio. I doubt that will happen again but if someone can wait that might be worth it. 

[GilesMM]

It is possible that, if the US goes into a recession, big ticket items will decrease in price despite tariffs because of high unemployment and penny pinching.

That's what I was thinking too. I remember during the great recession car companies lowered prices by huge amounts. Hyundai even had a "buy one get one free" deal on their Rio. I doubt that will happen again but if someone can wait that might be worth it.

If stocks go on sale, we will pour all our extra cash into those.

[NorCal]

It is possible that, if the US goes into a recession, big ticket items will decrease in price despite tariffs because of high unemployment and penny pinching.

That's what I was thinking too. I remember during the great recession car companies lowered prices by huge amounts. Hyundai even had a "buy one get one free" deal on their Rio. I doubt that will happen again but if someone can wait that might be worth it.

As the late 70’s and early 80’s demonstrated, it is possible to have a recession and inflation at the same time.  This would be my prediction if we actually see the level of tariffs Trump is talking about combined with deportation at the levels he’s taking about.

[techwiz]

My crystal ball is too cloudy to make a prediction.