Poll

What is your per-person target withdrawal rate once FIRE? (in 2021 US dollars)

$25k/year or less
42 (23%)
$25 to $40k/yr
52 (28.4%)
$40k to $70k/yr
61 (33.3%)
$70k to $100K/yr
15 (8.2%)
$100k to $150k/yr
8 (4.4%)
greater than $150k/yr
5 (2.7%)

Total Members Voted: 182

Voting closed: January 08, 2022, 06:13:32 PM

Author Topic: What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?  (Read 2667 times)

Glenstache

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What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?
« on: July 12, 2021, 07:13:32 PM »
Looking at the size of stashes that people are putting together, it seems that many are looking at big annual withdrawals, while others are impressively low. It is also hard to detangle how many individuals those are spread across and the vagaries of dependence on pensions, SS, other income streams from things like rentals. There are many ways to get to the annual burn/withdrawal rate.

Edit:
I did a terrible job of setting this up. Please abandon all hope of useful data in this thread and go to this better version:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/new-fire-spend-poll/
« Last Edit: July 14, 2021, 05:40:19 PM by Glenstache »

uniwelder

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Re: What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?
« Reply #1 on: July 12, 2021, 07:47:39 PM »
As a married couple, we’d spend less than 35k/year total, so I checked off the <25k box.

Metalcat

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Re: What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?
« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2021, 07:53:37 PM »
Looking at the size of stashes that people are putting together, it seems that many are looking at big annual withdrawals, while others are impressively low. It is also hard to detangle how many individuals those are spread across and the vagaries of dependence on pensions, SS, other income streams from things like rentals. There are many ways to get to the annual burn/withdrawal rate.

So then what are you looking to glean from the poll, since it won't indicate any of those things.

Glenstache

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Re: What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?
« Reply #3 on: July 12, 2021, 08:19:49 PM »
Looking at the size of stashes that people are putting together, it seems that many are looking at big annual withdrawals, while others are impressively low. It is also hard to detangle how many individuals those are spread across and the vagaries of dependence on pensions, SS, other income streams from things like rentals. There are many ways to get to the annual burn/withdrawal rate.

So then what are you looking to glean from the poll, since it won't indicate any of those things.
It will reduce it to a per-person rate. That is all I care about, and tough to detangle from all of the above in the general discussions. As I approach my own target for FIRE, I am just curious. It won't change my plans, but am curious where that target falls.

PDXTabs

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Re: What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?
« Reply #4 on: July 12, 2021, 08:33:21 PM »
I'm honestly not very sure. Somewhere between 40-80k depending on where I choose to live, who I'm living with, and how easy I find it to keep accumulating part-time.

pasadenafr

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Re: What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?
« Reply #5 on: July 12, 2021, 08:52:24 PM »
It's hard to say for sure as I'm still several years away. In my projections, I use 36k Euros expenses (includes a small monthly buffer, all rounded up). Add taxes (in both USD and Euros), and another buffer for exchange rate variations, and I'm working with $50k.

fuzzy math

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Re: What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?
« Reply #6 on: July 12, 2021, 10:34:09 PM »
Looking at the size of stashes that people are putting together, it seems that many are looking at big annual withdrawals, while others are impressively low. It is also hard to detangle how many individuals those are spread across and the vagaries of dependence on pensions, SS, other income streams from things like rentals. There are many ways to get to the annual burn/withdrawal rate.

So then what are you looking to glean from the poll, since it won't indicate any of those things.
It will reduce it to a per-person rate. That is all I care about, and tough to detangle from all of the above in the general discussions. As I approach my own target for FIRE, I am just curious. It won't change my plans, but am curious where that target falls.

i voted household 40-70k before reading it was per person. I'm thinking everyone else did that too because there's no way everyone here is planning a singular 40-70 (combined 80- 140!!!) spend.

Metalcat

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Re: What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?
« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2021, 06:42:59 AM »
Looking at the size of stashes that people are putting together, it seems that many are looking at big annual withdrawals, while others are impressively low. It is also hard to detangle how many individuals those are spread across and the vagaries of dependence on pensions, SS, other income streams from things like rentals. There are many ways to get to the annual burn/withdrawal rate.

So then what are you looking to glean from the poll, since it won't indicate any of those things.
It will reduce it to a per-person rate. That is all I care about, and tough to detangle from all of the above in the general discussions. As I approach my own target for FIRE, I am just curious. It won't change my plans, but am curious where that target falls.

i voted household 40-70k before reading it was per person. I'm thinking everyone else did that too because there's no way everyone here is planning a singular 40-70 (combined 80- 140!!!) spend.

I also answered per household. Per person makes no sense for us. Also, we aren't in the US, so no SS, and DH will have a pension that can fully cover our costs. So in terms of actually withdrawals from investments, some years will be $0.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2021, 07:27:44 AM by Malcat »

coppertop

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Re: What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?
« Reply #8 on: July 13, 2021, 07:08:09 AM »
I have been receiving SS for nearly four years.  I withdraw enough to bring my income up to $30,000 a year, which is my target for annual income.  My DH will be beginning to collect his SS in October, so I will reduce our withdrawals accordingly.  That will allow our stash to grow even more when we are taking less out. 

markbike528CBX

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Re: What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?
« Reply #9 on: July 13, 2021, 07:26:23 AM »
We're FIRED.  Together, last two years were right at 70, which was the fire target, based on:
 pre-fire gross - taxes - 401k = actual preFIRE spend.

Subsequent years add 10k/year for nephew college help, so 80k / 2 = 40k
@Malcat  , what doesn't make sense dividing by 2? Or more, depending on your situation.

Well below 4% rule.

Edit to correct batsignal .
« Last Edit: July 13, 2021, 07:34:06 AM by markbike528CBX »

ericrugiero

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Re: What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?
« Reply #10 on: July 13, 2021, 12:45:47 PM »
Looking at the size of stashes that people are putting together, it seems that many are looking at big annual withdrawals, while others are impressively low. It is also hard to detangle how many individuals those are spread across and the vagaries of dependence on pensions, SS, other income streams from things like rentals. There are many ways to get to the annual burn/withdrawal rate.

So then what are you looking to glean from the poll, since it won't indicate any of those things.
It will reduce it to a per-person rate. That is all I care about, and tough to detangle from all of the above in the general discussions. As I approach my own target for FIRE, I am just curious. It won't change my plans, but am curious where that target falls.

i voted household 40-70k before reading it was per person. I'm thinking everyone else did that too because there's no way everyone here is planning a singular 40-70 (combined 80- 140!!!) spend.

I also answered per household. Per person makes no sense for us. Also, we aren't in the US, so no SS, and DH will have a pension that can fully cover our costs. So in terms of actually withdrawals from investments, some years will be $0.

I did the same thing.  Fortunately you can hit "remove vote" and then vote again correctly. 

Metalcat

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Re: What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?
« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2021, 12:48:03 PM »
Looking at the size of stashes that people are putting together, it seems that many are looking at big annual withdrawals, while others are impressively low. It is also hard to detangle how many individuals those are spread across and the vagaries of dependence on pensions, SS, other income streams from things like rentals. There are many ways to get to the annual burn/withdrawal rate.

So then what are you looking to glean from the poll, since it won't indicate any of those things.
It will reduce it to a per-person rate. That is all I care about, and tough to detangle from all of the above in the general discussions. As I approach my own target for FIRE, I am just curious. It won't change my plans, but am curious where that target falls.

i voted household 40-70k before reading it was per person. I'm thinking everyone else did that too because there's no way everyone here is planning a singular 40-70 (combined 80- 140!!!) spend.

I also answered per household. Per person makes no sense for us. Also, we aren't in the US, so no SS, and DH will have a pension that can fully cover our costs. So in terms of actually withdrawals from investments, some years will be $0.

I did the same thing.  Fortunately you can hit "remove vote" and then vote again correctly.

Oh! Thank you!

Stupid me literally never noticed that.

DrinkCoffeeStackMoney

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Re: What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?
« Reply #12 on: July 14, 2021, 05:29:35 AM »
I checked the $40k-$70k box as that's where we are now.

I'm hoping my wife still want's to downsize and move back to the Midwest once we retire as that will GREATLY reduce our expenses.
That's the plan for now. If it were solely up to me I'd start packing now and we're still 5-7 years from FIRE. I'm so completely over the city and corporate America.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?
« Reply #13 on: July 14, 2021, 05:51:55 AM »
Haha, not surprised that most popular group is....... $80-140k/couple range.

Can't even fathom these spending levels on the lower end of that range. This forum has changed so much over the past 5+ years, this poll when I first joined would have a very different outcome.

Not saying that's good or bad, but looks like we've gotten really soft as a community.

ender

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Re: What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?
« Reply #14 on: July 14, 2021, 06:25:34 AM »
Haha, not surprised that most popular group is....... $80-140k/couple range.

Can't even fathom these spending levels on the lower end of that range. This forum has changed so much over the past 5+ years, this poll when I first joined would have a very different outcome.

Not saying that's good or bad, but looks like we've gotten really soft as a community.

I'm guessing many people answered based on the topic title vs the poll (which are different).

Either way, I think this year is going to be our highest spend year ever and as a family we're still on pace for 100k and that includes $20k in vehicle expenses and $20k in large capital projects around the house.

Metalcat

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Re: What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?
« Reply #15 on: July 14, 2021, 06:28:11 AM »
Haha, not surprised that most popular group is....... $80-140k/couple range.

Can't even fathom these spending levels on the lower end of that range. This forum has changed so much over the past 5+ years, this poll when I first joined would have a very different outcome.

Not saying that's good or bad, but looks like we've gotten really soft as a community.

I'm guessing many people answered based on the topic title vs the poll (which are different).

Either way, I think this year is going to be our highest spend year ever and as a family we're still on pace for 100k and that includes $20k in vehicle expenses and $20k in large capital projects around the house.

Exactly, I would take the poll results with a grain of salt. The thread title, the OP, and the poll question don't all really go together, so I'm sure there were a lot of people not paying close attention and answering wrong.

I barely skimmed the OP and just reflexively answered what household spending would be, not specifically withdrawals from investments, and not per person.

I doubt I'm the only lazy reader.

lauren_knows

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Re: What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?
« Reply #16 on: July 18, 2021, 08:23:39 PM »
This is so hard to predict, for me, because 1) we're in a HCOL area (for now), 2) we have young kids, and I assume spending will go down when they leave the house (outside of spending spike for college costs), 3) Our mortgage is more than 1/3 of our spending, and is theory is gone in 15 years.

So... we currently spend ~90-100k for a family of 4, but if we FIRE in the next couple of years (as I expect), it will lower for awhile (less kids activities paid for, just for the sake of childcare, less other expenses)

American GenX

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Re: What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?
« Reply #17 on: July 18, 2021, 08:57:26 PM »
 I chose $70k to $100K/yr per person.

The breakdown is in the other thread.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/new-fire-spend-poll/msg2874596/#msg2874596

jimmyshutter

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Re: What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?
« Reply #18 on: July 24, 2021, 09:30:09 AM »
I would've voted for less money if I had a better plan for my health insurance. If I can work out the health insurance then I'll be able to lower my target withdrawal rate and retire a little earlier.

pasadenafr

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Re: What is your target withdrawal rate once FIRE?
« Reply #19 on: July 24, 2021, 09:39:11 AM »
Single here, I'm expecting 36k€ / $50k expenses once all is said and done, but withdrawal amount will vary with time:

* $60k during the first year due to COBRA, before relocation (out of HSA, which I don't count in my "number")
* Add a one-time big-ass withdrawal upon relocation to buy a home outright (so gotta save more for that!)
* $50k a year from age 56 to 70
* $20k a year starting at age 70 when SS kicks in.

In today's dollars and with today's exchange rate.

LOTS of unknowns here, especially USD/EUR exchange rate.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2021, 09:46:02 AM by pasadenafr »