Like many of you, I am watching the development of EVs into the auto market (I live in the US, so written from that perspective) and it's been great fun to follow the disruption within the auto industry. I am neither an engineer nor am I particularly a gear-head, so my impressions are not informed by any real level of technical knowledge regarding EV or internal combustion (ICE) cars, but at a high level perspective it feels like Tesla has helped catalyze a long-awaited transition away from ICE vehicles and the rate of wholesale change within the auto industry is higher now than any time in my memory. At any rate - it's plain to see that there are billions and billions of dollars being poured into the EV transition now (everything from basic research on battery technology and building out charging infrastructure to ramping up production capacity and designing/redesigning vehicles for an EV world) I have been pondering where I think the current state of EVs are relative to where they'll be in, say, 5-10 years. I'd be curious to hear thoughts and predictions from you smart and curious people.
Here are questions that I have been wondering about:
- What rate of EV efficiency improvement will we see going forward? Looking at rankings of EVs by efficiency the top is sedans (mostly Tesla models) at 24-25 KwH per 100 miles; SUV form factor EVs are more like 30 KwH per 100 miles. EV design is still a relatively new field; what happens when companies aside from Tesla throw themselves into reducing inefficiencies in powertrain, etc? Might battery technology (such as designing batteries that serve in part as the vehicle body) help reduce vehicle weight substantially? I am thinking that 20 KwH per 100 miles for a sedan, and 25 KwH for an SUV, is a reasonable future goal.
- What improvements in battery performance characteristics will come to fruition for consumer EVs? Current battery tech has a number of limitations that impose drawbacks for current EVs, such as dramatically reduced range in cold/hot weather, restrictions on charging rates and potential to damage the battery if you discharge it too far. I understand that many different companies and academics are working on experimenting with different battery chemistries and battery pack designs; how far off are we from production versions of anything that would allow for noticeable changes in how EVs work as compared to current models?
- How quickly does the price of EV batteries drop? When does the price of EVs reach parity with relatively comparable ICE vehicles?
- When (if ever) does the charging landscape look consumer-friendly in the US? Tesla has obviously set up a great charging network for its vehicles, but public charging for non-Teslas in the US is (as I understand it) a bit of a dicey proposition. Lots of smaller companies providing charging services, each with their own system, lots of reports of frustrations/failures to charge. I don't even know if there's for sure one standard charging port style. Reminds me of Apple vs. Android.
- What political issues are going to be challenges? ICE vehicles provide funding for road maintenance through gas taxes; there is currently no such mechanism for EVs. Will public charging stations (and home ones?) be forced to introduce a tax intended to replace the gas tax? If not, how will states address the funding shortfall for road maintenance with more and more road miles coming from EVs?
- Overall, how mature is current EV technology? On the whole, how much better do you expect the EV proposition/experience relative to ICE vehicles to be in, say, 5 years? Let's measure it on the iPhone scale; if the EV models of five years from now will be an iPhone 12, what model iPhone are the current EVs?