American Empire Ending

[Pomegranate12]

It is clear the American Empire is ending, it has been said that an Empires end is filled with just bad news everyday so much that it will be common place and won't shock you.  (I think we reached that point)   

We are now a joke to the world, we can't even provide healthcare to our citizens but we have millions of missles and 11 air craft carriers.  This is a sign of an empire that is over stretched and dying

Do you see yourself moving abroad once FIRED to escape the collapse  ?

[Pomegranate12]

There would need to be significant instability for me to leave the US.   

I don't fear for my life by venturing outside. There's a lot of job opportunities. I'm well paid here and my family and friends are here.

It's getting worse though everyday at this rate I give it 5 years

[alsoknownasDean]

There would need to be significant instability for me to leave the US.   

I don't fear for my life by venturing outside. There's a lot of job opportunities. I'm well paid here and my family and friends are here.

It's getting worse though everyday at this rate I give it 5 years

Sounds like you need a dose of optimism :)

Empires may eventually end, but the cities/countries/etc usually continue to exist in one form or another afterwards. The US will continue to be a powerful, influential country for a long time to come, even if there is increased internal turmoil (although if a civil war breaks out, all bets are off).

Rome still exists, long after the Roman Empire itself ceased to exist.

[Pomegranate12]

There would need to be significant instability for me to leave the US.   

I don't fear for my life by venturing outside. There's a lot of job opportunities. I'm well paid here and my family and friends are here.

It's getting worse though everyday at this rate I give it 5 years

Sounds like you need a dose of optimism :)

Empires may eventually end, but the cities/countries/etc usually continue to exist in one form or another afterwards. The US will continue to be a powerful, influential country for a long time to come, even if there is increased internal turmoil (although if a civil war breaks out, all bets are off).

Rome still exists, long after the Roman Empire itself ceased to exist.

Yea but do you want to live in a crumbling society ??? 

[Cranky]

There would need to be significant instability for me to leave the US.   

I don't fear for my life by venturing outside. There's a lot of job opportunities. I'm well paid here and my family and friends are here.

It's getting worse though everyday at this rate I give it 5 years

Sounds like you need a dose of optimism :)

Empires may eventually end, but the cities/countries/etc usually continue to exist in one form or another afterwards. The US will continue to be a powerful, influential country for a long time to come, even if there is increased internal turmoil (although if a civil war breaks out, all bets are off).

Rome still exists, long after the Roman Empire itself ceased to exist.

Though Rome lost about 90% of its population over about 100 years...

[Vashy]

I recommend reading a book about the rebuilding of Europe post-1945. Humans will muddle through in the end.

[alsoknownasDean]

There would need to be significant instability for me to leave the US.   

I don't fear for my life by venturing outside. There's a lot of job opportunities. I'm well paid here and my family and friends are here.

It's getting worse though everyday at this rate I give it 5 years

Sounds like you need a dose of optimism :)

Empires may eventually end, but the cities/countries/etc usually continue to exist in one form or another afterwards. The US will continue to be a powerful, influential country for a long time to come, even if there is increased internal turmoil (although if a civil war breaks out, all bets are off).

Rome still exists, long after the Roman Empire itself ceased to exist.

Though Rome lost about 90% of its population over about 100 years...

Bad example then.

Still, I'm optimistic that the US will survive, continue to innovate and continue to attract some of the world's smartest people.

[American GenX]

It is clear the American Empire is ending, it has been said that an Empires end is filled with just bad news everyday so much that it will be common place and won't shock you.  (I think we reached that point)   

We are now a joke to the world, we can't even provide healthcare to our citizens but we have millions of missles and 11 air craft carriers.  This is a sign of an empire that is over stretched and dying

Do you see yourself moving abroad once FIRED to escape the collapse  ?

LOL.  Your post is ridiculous and nonsense.

[Pomegranate12]

It is clear the American Empire is ending, it has been said that an Empires end is filled with just bad news everyday so much that it will be common place and won't shock you.  (I think we reached that point)   

We are now a joke to the world, we can't even provide healthcare to our citizens but we have millions of missles and 11 air craft carriers.  This is a sign of an empire that is over stretched and dying

Do you see yourself moving abroad once FIRED to escape the collapse  ?

LOL.  Your post is ridiculous and nonsense.

Explain why

[Morning Glory]

I have felt this way for my entire adult life. I was in college during 9/11 and the Iraq war. It really felt like things were falling apart then.  I had hope for Obama but he was unable to address some of the longstanding issues of wealth disparity and racism. The lack of healthcare is a crying shame, and bad for the economy too.  I live in a well-off area and I've seen a huge increase in homelessness lately. It even affected some of my relatives.

 Now, due to the incompetence of our officials, we have a 9/11 every day from Covid deaths, and nobody seems outraged by this.  It's just keep calm and carry on over here.

I do have hope for the next administration. I would be very happy if we can stop tying healthcare to employment. I think that part of the reason people are not getting involved in politics is that they are afraid they will lose their jobs, and thus their healthcare, if they speak out too much and their boss disagrees with them. I have worked at a place where one could be fired for publicly criticizing the institution or it's views.  A couple of things happened in 2020 that I really wanted to criticize them for, but I didn't. I am the sole breadwinner in my house and also the insurance carrier, so I have to be careful.  This is part of what is driving me to seek financial independence!!!

 I have dual citizenship with the UK too, if things really hit the fan. My profession is paid a lot more in the US though, and my family is mostly here.  The political situation in the UK is not so great either.

[TheContinentalOp]

It would be pretty cool if the American Empire were ending, but we won't be so lucky.

The chances of Puerto Rico, one of the country's last colonial outposts, becoming a permanent part of the USA has never been higher.

Trump for all this faults, didn't start and new wars. He's the first President since Carter, or Ford depending how you count Afghanistan< who can say that. Get ready for a return to normal as the Biden-Harris administration goes looking for trouble.

I do predict that Biden will be less bellicose with Iran, so that's one small ray of sunshine. But everywhere else from Russia, to the Nine Dash Line, to Syria, to Afghanistan look for more of the same.

[norajean]

The collapse could bring unique opportunities for those who don’t run and hide.

[cool7hand]

You might consider reading The Lessons Of History by Will and Ariel Durant and The Better Angels Of Our Nature by Steven Pinker. Things aren't as bad as the Guardian, NYT, Wash Post, etc. would have us believe, any more than FOX and Breitbart would have us believe. Doom and gloom just get more clicks. America is in decline, but it's still the best place on earth to live. We also live in the best period in history to live. And everything is getting better. Enjoy life!

[Pomegranate12]

You might consider reading The Lessons Of History by Will and Ariel Durant and The Better Angels Of Our Nature by Steven Pinker. Things aren't as bad as the Guardian, NYT, Wash Post, etc. would have us believe, any more than FOX and Breitbart would have us believe. Doom and gloom just get more clicks. America is in decline, but it's still the best place on earth to live. We also live in the best period in history to live. And everything is getting better. Enjoy life!

We are number 15 in the quality of life index, it most definitely is not the best place on earth to live

[DeniseNJ]

You might consider reading The Lessons Of History by Will and Ariel Durant and The Better Angels Of Our Nature by Steven Pinker. Things aren't as bad as the Guardian, NYT, Wash Post, etc. would have us believe, any more than FOX and Breitbart would have us believe. Doom and gloom just get more clicks. America is in decline, but it's still the best place on earth to live. We also live in the best period in history to live. And everything is getting better. Enjoy life!

+1
I read Pinker and totally agree. The reason we are getting bad news everyday is that we can. Ppl have more access to media than ever before and the press is absolutly free to report on every nook and cranny of society. Used to be there were things they just wouldn't print to protect the dignity of the office. Some things were just off limits. I'll be more worried when the news stops coming--that would mean that some one extremely powerful is running the media or that they are better than anyone at hiding things.

As far as health care, this is not new to this time. Healthcare was never provided in the US before. That we are making an effort now is good news.

It's just a different time. We can't compare it to the fall of the Roman Empire or even the sun finally settleling on the British empire. Even if the US loses its influence as a world leader, that doesn't mean a crumbling society. We don't have to run the world to be a nice place to live.

[reeshau]

You might consider reading The Lessons Of History by Will and Ariel Durant and The Better Angels Of Our Nature by Steven Pinker. Things aren't as bad as the Guardian, NYT, Wash Post, etc. would have us believe, any more than FOX and Breitbart would have us believe. Doom and gloom just get more clicks. America is in decline, but it's still the best place on earth to live. We also live in the best period in history to live. And everything is getting better. Enjoy life!

From a global perspective, I would also add Factfulness, by Hans Rosling.

[bwall]

The chances of Puerto Rico, one of the country's last colonial outposts, becoming a permanent part of the USA has never been higher.

Keep in mind that unlike European colonies, Puerto Ricans are citizens of the realm (with the same passport) and their currency is the coin of the realm. They are also protected under the same Constitution as the citizens on the mainland. They are also allowed to vote immediately upon moving to one of the 50 states. The dominant language of government and commerce is also the same (ex-colonial) language as when the Americans took stewardship.

None of these factors were the case during European colonization, so to paint with the same broad brush strokes of 'colonization' is less than accurate.

[jehovasfitness23]

Agreed. Income inequality is tearing us apart along with social media and right wing news bubbles.

[TheContinentalOp]

The chances of Puerto Rico, one of the country's last colonial outposts, becoming a permanent part of the USA has never been higher.

Keep in mind that unlike European colonies, Puerto Ricans are citizens of the realm (with the same passport) and their currency is the coin of the realm. They are also protected under the same Constitution as the citizens on the mainland. They are also allowed to vote immediately upon moving to one of the 50 states. The dominant language of government and commerce is also the same (ex-colonial) language as when the Americans took stewardship.

None of these factors were the case during European colonization, so to paint with the same broad brush strokes of 'colonization' is less than accurate.

The US "won" Puerto Rico in a war of Imperialism against Spain. The justification was we needed to be able to defend the approaches of the soon-to-be-built Panama Canal (another US colonial possession that thankfully we no longer own) from the Kaiser's Fleet (which also no longer exists).  It's all a bunch of Great Game nonsense.

[sonofsven]

Since this is a suggested reading list , the novella Candide, by Voltaire comes to mind.
At the very least it might provide comic relief.

[mwulff]

I guess I would suggest reading "Shooting an Elephant" by George Orwell.

Now personally I am not a US citizen but I do live in country that has been heavily influenced by the USA. When you look at it from the outside it seems that there are relatively few problems that need to be fixed:

1. Abolish the electorial college and replace it with a popular vote.

2. End the two-party system. Typically the democracies with more than two political parties do better and represent their citizens better. My own country (Denmark) has around 10 political parties going from the far left to the far right. So everybody can find a political that suits their tastes and cooperation between parties is 100% required to pass any laws.

3. Lower the wealth/income gap through taxation of the top X % and redistribution.

4. Institute massive investments in social programmes to improve the lives of unemployed people etc. , and as an added bonus is that when people feel secure they are less likely to believe conspiracy theories.

5. Universal healthcare - for crying out loud please join the 20th century already..

I would advise looking to Scandinavia or the Netherlands for inspiration.

Now don't get me wrong, the problems listed above are mammoth problems but they are not insurmountable.

Also the USA has some enormous strengths that are overlooked such as an abundance of resources, economic influence and military might (although cutting military spending might be a good idea).

I also believe that a politically stable USA would find that their old allies and partners are quite willing to both trade and exchange ideas and support. If we could find a way back to EU/USA standing together then China would have a formidable opponent in global politics.

To sum up, I don't think it's the end of the line for USA. But there is a bumpy road ahead and you know things are bad when the rest of the world starts referring to your country as "Dumbfuckistan".

[jehovasfitness23]

I guess I would suggest reading "Shooting an Elephant" by George Orwell.

Now personally I am not a US citizen but I do live in country that has been heavily influenced by the USA. When you look at it from the outside it seems that there are relatively few problems that need to be fixed:

1. Abolish the electorial college and replace it with a popular vote.

2. End the two-party system. Typically the democracies with more than two political parties do better and represent their citizens better. My own country (Denmark) has around 10 political parties going from the far left to the far right. So everybody can find a political that suits their tastes and cooperation between parties is 100% required to pass any laws.

3. Lower the wealth/income gap through taxation of the top X % and redistribution.

4. Institute massive investments in social programmes to improve the lives of unemployed people etc. , and as an added bonus is that when people feel secure they are less likely to believe conspiracy theories.

5. Universal healthcare - for crying out loud please join the 20th century already..

I would advise looking to Scandinavia or the Netherlands for inspiration.

Now don't get me wrong, the problems listed above are mammoth problems but they are not insurmountable.

Also the USA has some enormous strengths that are overlooked such as an abundance of resources, economic influence and military might (although cutting military spending might be a good idea).

I also believe that a politically stable USA would find that their old allies and partners are quite willing to both trade and exchange ideas and support. If we could find a way back to EU/USA standing together then China would have a formidable opponent in global politics.

To sum up, I don't think it's the end of the line for USA. But there is a bumpy road ahead and you know things are bad when the rest of the world starts referring to your country as "Dumbfuckistan".

You are spot on but none of that will ever happen here in my lifetime.

1. It's labeled socialism and there is a deep fear in this country of a term people do not understand.
2. Money in politics will not allow an end of the 2 party system
3. Money in politics is one of our biggest political issues in this country that trickles down to almost all problems imo

[rantk81]

I guess I would suggest reading "Shooting an Elephant" by George Orwell.

Now personally I am not a US citizen but I do live in country that has been heavily influenced by the USA. When you look at it from the outside it seems that there are relatively few problems that need to be fixed:

The points you've raised are things that I think most Democrats are in support of, and most Republicans/Conservative/Trumpers are not in favor of.

With regard to eliminating the Electoral College system -- The Republican/Conservative/Trumper faction currently benefits from the E.C. system, as it has allowed them to control the presidency (or be in a closer position to control the presidency), simply due to how the the population of the country is distributed geographically. ("Tyranny of the Minority.")

With regard to all the other points -- about strengthening or creating social programs and infrastructure -- those things are frequently labeled as Socialism/Communism by the Republican/Conservative/Trumper faction.

[bwall]

The chances of Puerto Rico, one of the country's last colonial outposts, becoming a permanent part of the USA has never been higher.

Keep in mind that unlike European colonies, Puerto Ricans are citizens of the realm (with the same passport) and their currency is the coin of the realm. They are also protected under the same Constitution as the citizens on the mainland. They are also allowed to vote immediately upon moving to one of the 50 states. The dominant language of government and commerce is also the same (ex-colonial) language as when the Americans took stewardship.

None of these factors were the case during European colonization, so to paint with the same broad brush strokes of 'colonization' is less than accurate.

The US "won" Puerto Rico in a war of Imperialism against Spain. The justification was we needed to be able to defend the approaches of the soon-to-be-built Panama Canal (another US colonial possession that thankfully we no longer own) from the Kaiser's Fleet (which also no longer exists).  It's all a bunch of Great Game nonsense.

The above is true, yes. But, it doesn't make Puerto Rico a colony in the traditional sense of the word. It is a territory, perhaps, much like US states were classified before they became states.
In the USA, the nearest comparable for Puerto Rico is Hawaii. Similar size, similar latitude and only of interest because of their geopolitical location. No one enters the Caribbean without sailing past Puerto Rico.

[StashingAway]

1. Abolish the electorial college and replace it with a popular vote.

2. End the two-party system. Typically the democracies with more than two political parties do better and represent their citizens better. My own country (Denmark) has around 10 political parties going from the far left to the far right. So everybody can find a political that suits their tastes and cooperation between parties is 100% required to pass any laws.

I agree with the problems, but I disagree with your solutions.

1) There is good reason to keep the electoral college. It is necessary to keep 50 states united and represented. There is a lot of history on why it was created and what it meant for the union. What needs to be fixed is the balance of electoral votes (more in line with how it was originally founded). And more importantly, fix the gerrymandering of the districts. Both of these would be relatively easy. Popular vote would release a whole new can of worms.

2) Two party system is a mathematical end result of "first past the post" voting. We will not end the two party system until you stop the FPTP voting structure. I would support something like ranked choice voting instead.

The bottom line is that you need to interpret the US more like the EU and less like Denmark. It is too big to manage in a democratic way like you would a single EU country. Now, if we were authoritarian, it would be a different story!

[mwulff]

You are spot on but none of that will ever happen here in my lifetime.

1. It's labeled socialism and there is a deep fear in this country of a term people do not understand.
2. Money in politics will not allow an end of the 2 party system
3. Money in politics is one of our biggest political issues in this country that trickles down to almost all problems imo

The events of the last 4 years may wind up fracturing the GOP right down the middle (or a 70-30 split). So you may automatically end up with more parties.

As a scandinavian and a european we sort of laugh when somebody from the US draws the "Socialism" card. First off because many confuse socialism with communism. Those are not the same.

My country (Denmark again) is a socialistic democracy meaning that we have free elections, freedom of speech, freedom of thought, freedom of expression and a capitalistic free, but well regulated, market. We also pay pretty high taxes but we consistently rank in the top 1-5 of happiest nations on the planet. I have a feeling that if we add the cost of health insurance over a lifetime then the cost of Denmark vs. The USA is not as big as it is made out to be.

Is Denmark perfect. Of course not but we have some ideas that have worked out pretty well, and so do the german, dutch, swedes, finnish and norwegians. It's just a matter of copy/paste ;)

Socialism doesn't mean the end of freedom and between pure hardcore capitalism and pure communism there is a golden path that keeps people happy and society prosperous.

[Nate R]

@Pomegranate12 , if you are correct, where would you move that you think would be better off? Where do you think investments will be better off?
I do agree we may not see the same things in the future as we did in the past in the US, but I don't have an answer of where I'm confident would be "better."

[cool7hand]

You might consider reading The Lessons Of History by Will and Ariel Durant and The Better Angels Of Our Nature by Steven Pinker. Things aren't as bad as the Guardian, NYT, Wash Post, etc. would have us believe, any more than FOX and Breitbart would have us believe. Doom and gloom just get more clicks. America is in decline, but it's still the best place on earth to live. We also live in the best period in history to live. And everything is getting better. Enjoy life!

From a global perspective, I would also add Factfulness, by Hans Rosling.

Thanks for the recommendation!

[BudgetSlasher]

It seems you are using decline of an empire as a stand in for societal decay/unrest. The two often go together, but it is not required that they always do.

In my view the most likely of the negative outcomes is that US slide into a hybrid regime (democracy/authoritarian) with a less likely negative outcome is into a full authoritarian regime. If that happens, there are two ways I see that it can go. The first is the one that grabs all the headlines, Nazi Germany. The second, and in IMO more likely of the two, is one where elections happen, but change nothing; other than that daily life is pretty much unchanged people still go to work, newspapers are still published, there is still some political dissent, people still earn a wage, and people still buy things.

On the positive side, I see the most likely outcome as holding the current status quo for an extended period of time. With the less likely case being a marked improvement by implementing at least some of the reforms mwulff mentioned.

For someone in their adult years today and living a good and/or privileged life, I expect the chances are good that they will continue to do so for the rest of their life.

In my view, many people talking about/planning to or actually leaving the US, are exercising a luxury, in that they have the resources to pick where they want to live and the skills/funds to be attractive to those places. To be clear I am not passing judgment on the decision to do so, just acknowledging that is it much easier to move to your first choice when you have money and skills/degrees/certification that are in demand than say a general laborer with minimal credentials.

In that light, to me the real questions are 1) Does the US align with my values/represent who I am? 2) If no, do I want to fight to try to change that?

[cangelosibrown]

I'd just like to point out that the largest empire in human history (England's) ended just 100 years ago.  At no point in those 100 years (during WWII excepted) did England feel like it was crumbling. Or like it was unsafe to go outside. Is the era of US hegemony ending? Almost certainly. But that doesn't mean Alaric is gonna come sack NYC anytime soon.

[cool7hand]

I'd just like to point out that the largest empire in human history (England's) ended just 100 years ago.  At no point in those 100 years (during WWII excepted) did England feel like it was crumbling. Or like it was unsafe to go outside. Is the era of US hegemony ending? Almost certainly. But that doesn't mean Alaric is gonna come sack NYC anytime soon.

Well said!

[mwulff]

1. Abolish the electorial college and replace it with a popular vote.

2. End the two-party system. Typically the democracies with more than two political parties do better and represent their citizens better. My own country (Denmark) has around 10 political parties going from the far left to the far right. So everybody can find a political that suits their tastes and cooperation between parties is 100% required to pass any laws.

I agree with the problems, but I disagree with your solutions.

1) There is good reason to keep the electoral college. It is necessary to keep 50 states united and represented. There is a lot of history on why it was created and what it meant for the union. What needs to be fixed is the balance of electoral votes (more in line with how it was originally founded). And more importantly, fix the gerrymandering of the districts. Both of these would be relatively easy. Popular vote would release a whole new can of worms.

2) Two party system is a mathematical end result of "first past the post" voting. We will not end the two party system until you stop the FPTP voting structure. I would support something like ranked choice voting instead.

The bottom line is that you need to interpret the US more like the EU and less like Denmark. It is too big to manage in a democratic way like you would a single EU country. Now, if we were authoritarian, it would be a different story!

I'll accept your point about the US being more like EU than a single country. However there is a much greater cohesion between US States than EU countries. So the analogy only goes so far, as all analogies are apt to do.

1) I'll plead ignorance with regards to the electorial college's historical significance. But then it might be worth considering a different system so that there is no "Winner takes it all" situation. You could divide electoral college votes in percentage of votes received. A system that more fairly represents the people seems to be much needed.

2) Agree completely. I hope it's possible to change things.

I just hope we see more democratic representation in my lifetime. I've always been a fan of the USA, and I have travelled extensively all over the country, and I have met so many insanely nice people that welcomed us with open arms. I would hate to see that collapse and people get hurt.

[sixwings]

I'd just like to point out that the largest empire in human history (England's) ended just 100 years ago.  At no point in those 100 years (during WWII excepted) did England feel like it was crumbling. Or like it was unsafe to go outside. Is the era of US hegemony ending? Almost certainly. But that doesn't mean Alaric is gonna come sack NYC anytime soon.

Nah, I dont think American hegemony is coming to an end. It may feel like there's some issues in society with Donald Trump but it's not bringing the end of the USA dominance on the world stage. America's military, particularly the navy, still has no one even close to rivals. As a result America controls, and will continue to control, all flow of goods and resources across the world. This is unchanged by 4 years of Donald Trump tweets and will remain unchanged for a very long time. China is investing heavily into navy, and I expect that will be Americas biggest rival on the ocean, but they are still quite far behind. I actually think America will gain power over the next 50 years as 1) Tech innovation continues to happen, mostly in America and 2) Other countries (India, Brazil, etc.) continue to develop and become more commercialized and need more resources, those resources have to get there somehow and American controls all shipping/flow of resources.

Despite Donald Trump I am still very bullish on America as a whole. (I am Canadian but used to live in the USA).

Stop doomscrolling. There's a lot more going on out there than Donald Trump tweeting and a few thousand rioters storming the capitol building.

[HPstache]

Join us for Episode two of Pomegranate12's controversial hot takes meant to stir shit up...

[Michael in ABQ]

If anything, American hegemony will probably expand in the 21st century. Our largest competition in the 20th century (Russia) is essentially a petro-state with a declining population and the only reason it is still a global player is nuclear weapons and an outsized military. In the 21st century China is clearly our largest competition. However, China has deep-seated problems such as the inherent rift between the rich outward-facing coast and the poor-inward facing interior. Can the Chinese Communist Party continue to balance economic growth and social stability? They also have deep structural problems in their economy related to state-run businesses and loans. No real recessions to weed out under-performing businesses. Instead, they continue to be propped out with state-backed loans even if they would be insolvent in a market-based economy. There's also decades of demographic imbalance to deal with, i.e. ~35 million more men than women with roughly 1/4 of men having no hope of ever finding a wife or partner due to their one-child policy and years of sex-selective abortions and infanticide. Meanwhile, the U.S continues to experience population growth through births and immigration.

Economically the US still enjoys massive advantages in natural resources and geography. We have the most productive agriculture in the world and lots of infrastructure to get that food to national and international markets (river networks plus road and rail). Strong mineral resources including being essentially self-sufficient in hydrocarbons, something China is nowhere near on. The US is the #1 oil producer in the world by a large margin, approximately 20 million barrels per day which balances out our consumption that is about the same. Meanwhile, China produces about 5 million barrels per day but consumes 13, and has to import the rest. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&t=6

The US Dollar is the world reserve currency which brings a whole host of benefits. We're still considered the place to investment money - especially when Japan and much of Europe have negative interest rates.

We have the strongest military which helps guarantee free trade around the world.

We have a dominant culture in terms of language, entertainment, etc. How many people learn English as a second language vs. Chinese or Spanish or Arabic? (almost a billion speak English as a second language)

US Technology and higher education drive a significant part of global innovation. China may make a lot of stuff, but most of the technology - especially the most advanced parts - are still developed and/or produced in the US.   


There are challenges to be sure. And of course those challenges get far more exposure than the good things. "If it bleeds it leads" is the old standby in the media. Social media has further refined that and figured out that echo chambers and showing divisive and self-reinforcing content drive more engagement (and advertising revenue) than presenting any sot of balance. Look past the headlines and entertainment that poses as "news" these days and you'll find good things. Just don't expect that to overshadow the latest crisis du jour.

[FINate]

You're conflating decline and collapse. Huge difference.

Recent events are reprehensible, some of the worst aspects of America on full display for the world to see. While uncomfortable and embarrassing, this is better than letting it fester and grow underground. My main concern with Cancel Culture is that our extremists (on both the Left and the Right) get pushed into the dark web where they are easy to ignore instead of front and center where we are forced to reckon with the ugliness.

And this is all a very long way off from collapse, which may or may not happen. E.g. the UK declined w/o collapse.  Furthermore, if America (or any world superpower for that matter) full on collapses, this would cause a massive power vacuum that would result in a long period of extreme tumult as nations vied for position. In other words, there would be no safe place to jump to.

Also, it's not clear to me that a modest decline in America's power is really a bad thing. The myth of American exceptionalism needs to die, we are not a special unique snowflake. Let the other nations step up their game on the world stage.

[Just Joe]

I feel like the USA has been stumbling backwards for a few years thanks to the far right who seem unable or unwilling to communicate with fact and truth and fairness.

I don't think the USA will ever live up to the America in the promotional materials (happy melting pot, #1 in so many topics, land of plenty, Christian ethics, etc). Our country has revealed its ugly side again and again and again.

[cangelosibrown]

If anything, American hegemony will probably expand in the 21st century. Our largest competition in the 20th century (Russia) is essentially a petro-state with a declining population and the only reason it is still a global player is nuclear weapons and an outsized military. In the 21st century China is clearly our largest competition. However, China has deep-seated problems such as the inherent rift between the rich outward-facing coast and the poor-inward facing interior. Can the Chinese Communist Party continue to balance economic growth and social stability? They also have deep structural problems in their economy related to state-run businesses and loans. No real recessions to weed out under-performing businesses. Instead, they continue to be propped out with state-backed loans even if they would be insolvent in a market-based economy. There's also decades of demographic imbalance to deal with, i.e. ~35 million more men than women with roughly 1/4 of men having no hope of ever finding a wife or partner due to their one-child policy and years of sex-selective abortions and infanticide. Meanwhile, the U.S continues to experience population growth through births and immigration.

Economically the US still enjoys massive advantages in natural resources and geography. We have the most productive agriculture in the world and lots of infrastructure to get that food to national and international markets (river networks plus road and rail). Strong mineral resources including being essentially self-sufficient in hydrocarbons, something China is nowhere near on. The US is the #1 oil producer in the world by a large margin, approximately 20 million barrels per day which balances out our consumption that is about the same. Meanwhile, China produces about 5 million barrels per day but consumes 13, and has to import the rest. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&t=6

The US Dollar is the world reserve currency which brings a whole host of benefits. We're still considered the place to investment money - especially when Japan and much of Europe have negative interest rates.

We have the strongest military which helps guarantee free trade around the world.

We have a dominant culture in terms of language, entertainment, etc. How many people learn English as a second language vs. Chinese or Spanish or Arabic? (almost a billion speak English as a second language)

US Technology and higher education drive a significant part of global innovation. China may make a lot of stuff, but most of the technology - especially the most advanced parts - are still developed and/or produced in the US.   


There are challenges to be sure. And of course those challenges get far more exposure than the good things. "If it bleeds it leads" is the old standby in the media. Social media has further refined that and figured out that echo chambers and showing divisive and self-reinforcing content drive more engagement (and advertising revenue) than presenting any sot of balance. Look past the headlines and entertainment that poses as "news" these days and you'll find good things. Just don't expect that to overshadow the latest crisis du jour.

I don't specifically disagree with any of your points. when I say it's coming to an end, I mean over the next few decades, and I don't mean anything is going to specifically replace it as the geopolitical superpower. But times are changing. most of the points you bring up is something that were more important 10 years ago than it will be 10 years from now. Oil, Navy, even agriculture to some degree. 25 years ago, the US would have fought a (non-nuclear) war against the combined forces of every country on earth and probably won. That's not even close to true anymore.

[J Boogie]

I think our Empire, in terms of our 'policemen of the world' neoconservative era, will soon be ending.

I am borrowing this categorization from James Lindsay, but I would agree with him the US neoconservative era was Ronald Reagan through Bush/Obama.

He contends Trump has ushered in the postmodern era of the US, a narrative driven era in which many of the influential right begin to embrace alternative "facts" as the influential left begin to embrace critical race theory over the enlightenment values of reason, epistemology and the scientific method. The idea is that knowledge is best obtained from the 'authentic' voices of marginalized groups sharing their lived experiences, as opposed to using Eurocentric enlightenment era epistemology which is fully corrupted by the systemic racism that is inevitable when white men create a system.

I believe the right began gravitating in this postmodern direction during the Obama years, with over 2/3 of Trump supporters in 2015 fully buying into wild shit like theories of how he is secretly a Muslim or was born in Kenya.

I think the left took a grand step in the postmodern direction this past summer, as critical race theory was released from academia into the everyday world on a grand scale.


The Biden/Harris admin is a bad combination of the walking corpse of neoconservatism and an embrace of critical race theory.

My hope is that 2024 ushers in someone like Andrew Yang. He would be able to partner with representatives like the squad on economic issues while avoiding the woke rhetoric that triggers such a negative reaction from those on the right. I think Joe Biden's personality is that of a uniter, but both he and Harris lack conviction and new ideas when it comes to charting a new path forward - and they will likely end up trying to please their corporate partners economically and trying to pleasing their woke constituents culturally.

Far better than the insane top-down pollution of our information ecosystem we've been dealing for the past four years, so there's that. Maybe a gentle and uneventful Biden presidency is a good hangover remedy to bide us time to get our shit together and chart a real course forward. Here's to hope and unity. I wish our elected officials success.

[iris lily]

As always, I wonder  where “abroad” people think  they will move? Will Canada take all of us?

[MrGreen]

Sounds like a good time to YOLO! And don't forget to HODL!

[sherr]

My main concern with Cancel Culture is that our extremists (on both the Left and the Right) get pushed into the dark web where they are easy to ignore instead of front and center where we are forced to reckon with the ugliness.

This is demonstrably not what happens. When a group is "deplatformed", whether that be misogynists or conspiracy theorists or white supremacists or whatever else in this iteration, a small fraction (about 20-30%) of original participants of the group do go find somewhere else to fester sure. Haters are gonna hate, literally. But most of them don't bother, and the hate speech coming from those same users who stick around drops by 80-90%. And more importantly they stop poisoning the minds and discourse of everyone else. It results in a massive improvement in the overall discourse with average people.

Here is one case study to back that up, but I'm sure there are others. Taking away the megaphone from people who are crazy or hateful or conspiracy theorists, besides being the right thing to do morally IMO, is also very effective in reducing the number of crazy / hateful / conspiracy theorist people there are. It does drastically improve the problem, not just hide it.

And it's not "Cancel Culture" to boot users / communities who are violating your Terms Of Service. That's just called "doing what you said you'd do if they violated your Terms Of Service".

[John Galt incarnate!]

It is clear the American Empire is ending, it has been said that an Empires end is filled with just bad news everyday so much that it will be common place and won't shock you.  (I think we reached that point)   

We are now a joke to the world, we can't even provide healthcare to our citizens but we have millions of missles and 11 air craft carriers.  This is a sign of an empire that is over stretched and dying

Do you see yourself moving abroad once FIRED to escape the collapse  ?

I disagree with your assertion that "the American Empire is ending." A "collapse" of America is not  in the offing.

 I think you are unduly pessimistic because during this period of  heightened  political unrest America's governmental architecture of separation of powers, checks and balances, and dispersion of power, in combination with all   of her  long-standing institutions of ordered liberty, preordain only one outcome: America will not falter.

Only for a change of scenery, I've though a bit about moving to Australia or a European nation that has a warm climate. I doubt I'll ever do so.

I like living in America, a land of constitutional guarantees that comprise the road map which leads to the destination of "Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness," America's promise set forth in the Declaration of Independence.

WRT FIRE itself, I think America's tax policies, tax rates, and her panoply of liberties  facilitate the accumulation of wealth  that leads to FIRE for those who choose it.

I am not familiar with foreign nations' tax policies and tax rates but I suspect most  aren't as conducive to FIRE and FIREees' finances as America's.

If  ever I did move abroad I'd carefully research the tax policy and rates of the nation I'd be moving to so I could determine their effect on my finances and FIREee lifestyle.

[2Birds1Stone]

The OP is either a Troll or must have very low IQ/EQ to join a forum and create all of these clickbait threads.

[FIRE Artist]

There would need to be significant instability for me to leave the US.   

I don't fear for my life by venturing outside. There's a lot of job opportunities. I'm well paid here and my family and friends are here.

It's getting worse though everyday at this rate I give it 5 years

Sounds like you need a dose of optimism :)

Empires may eventually end, but the cities/countries/etc usually continue to exist in one form or another afterwards. The US will continue to be a powerful, influential country for a long time to come, even if there is increased internal turmoil (although if a civil war breaks out, all bets are off).

Rome still exists, long after the Roman Empire itself ceased to exist.

Though Rome lost about 90% of its population over about 100 years...

Bad example then.

Still, I'm optimistic that the US will survive, continue to innovate and continue to attract some of the world's smartest people.

The British empire is a better example.  The UK is a perfectly great place for its citizens to carry on living and thriving, but on the political stage, the UK is greatly less influential than it used to be.  I am more concerned with the shifting of the US’s place in the global stage, and who/what ideology is going to replace it?  More and more it is looking to be the dawning of the age of China, I am not sure that is good for anyone living in the western world. 

[John Galt incarnate!]

More and more it is looking to be the dawning of the age of China, I am not sure that is good for anyone living in the western world.

China's evil, totalitarian, Communist regime  is inimical to human liberty.

[StashingAway]

I'll accept your point about the US being more like EU than a single country. However there is a much greater cohesion between US States than EU countries. So the analogy only goes so far, as all analogies are apt to do.

1) I'll plead ignorance with regards to the electorial college's historical significance. But then it might be worth considering a different system so that there is no "Winner takes it all" situation. You could divide electoral college votes in percentage of votes received. A system that more fairly represents the people seems to be much needed.

2) Agree completely. I hope it's possible to change things.

I just hope we see more democratic representation in my lifetime. I've always been a fan of the USA, and I have travelled extensively all over the country, and I have met so many insanely nice people that welcomed us with open arms. I would hate to see that collapse and people get hurt.

I agree that the analogy is only surface level, but it serves to remind people sometimes that there is another level of difficulty with how the US is set up. I don't need a passport if I travel around the country, but I do need to file separate taxes for each stat that I make money in. My currency works everywhere, but so does the Euro. If I'm buying parts for my car, some of them are legal in Arizona but not in California. And so on.

The history of the electoral college and how it played a part in forming the United States is quite interesting. I don't have the ability to summarize it well in a forum format, but quite literally the US would not exist without it (it was a prime mover in getting the smaller colonies on board with joining the larger ones). Overall, I still think it is a great concept, it just needs to be adjusted to fit modern population dynamics. When it was made, the disparity between rural and city voting weight was relatively minor.

But there is merit to the idea of not letting a select few population dense cities control the narrative for all of the "flyover states". They would have no incentive to participate in the democratic process.

There are other issues, such as having certain states vote first in the presidential election each round (it's absurd that Iowa gets first say each year). Gerrymandering, like I said, has a more significant effect as well.

But I think lay people put too much weight on the idea that a popular vote would solve the issues with the US.

Remember we have some 20 odd states individually that have a larger population than the country of Denmark.

[Christof]

The bottom line is that you need to interpret the US more like the EU and less like Denmark. It is too big to manage in a democratic way like you would a single EU country. Now, if we were authoritarian, it would be a different story!

No, that's not true. The US is larger than any single EU country, but it's not even four times the population of Germany. Germany has the same population as the US had before Oklahoma joined the US in 1907 when the US had already 45 states and the same constitution that is in place today. If you can manage a country like Germany in a democratic way, you certainly can manage a country with 45 state and a population of the same size and if you can manage 45 states, you can manage 50 states. Compared to the population, Germany even has more states than the US: The US would need to have 63 states (we have 16 and 26% the population). Structurally, Germany is quite similar to the US, because our federation was modeled after the US after World War II.

[Sid Hoffman]

It's getting worse though everyday at this rate I give it 5 years

You seriously think Joe Biden will single-handedly destroy America almost entirely in his first term alone? I don't think that is realistic. Pessimism sells and bad news increases social media engagement. This means news is engineered to make you angry and hopeless for two purposes: to increase social media engagement and thus raise the amount of money Google, Facebook, and Twitter make from selling online ads (the only way those companies really make money) but also cause you to self-soothe and spend your way to happiness. This is a win-win for the aforementioned companies. You increase their ad rates and money while also buying the products you see advertised, thus giving more money to those companies to spend on ads.

The thing is that the public is starting to catch on to all of this. I for one deleted all my social media accounts several years ago and I certainly wasn't even the first among my friends and family to do so. Discussion forums are really a lot better because you can't pick and choose what you want to see the way social media is engineered to only show you what you want to see. Social media just increases division. If anything, discussion forums promote community and cooperation because if somebody wants to actually make good use of a forum, they need to learn, listen, and understand opposing viewpoints and provide factual reasons why to have a differing viewpoint. You can't just hit "block" and never see that person or topic ever again the way you can on social media.

No, I think this is a turning point and things get better from here. It doesn't even matter if the US is a cultural superpower anymore and if the US & EU both become economic slaves to China. Neither the US or EU is ever going to bow to China's culture, even if we accept their lordship for all manufactured goods. Between having free speech or having the strongest economy, I'm certain we'll choose free speech and weak economies rather than letting China take over all culture and communication in every nation of the world. Just as the UKs empire ended in the 20th century and the USAs ends in the 21st, so too will China's empire end soon as well. As for when and how, who knows, but free speech has historically always won, all throughout human history. Thus China is on the wrong side of history for this battle.

[sherr]

The history of the electoral college and how it played a part in forming the United States is quite interesting. I don't have the ability to summarize it well in a forum format, but quite literally the US would not exist without it (it was a prime mover in getting the smaller colonies on board with joining the larger ones). Overall, I still think it is a great concept, it just needs to be adjusted to fit modern population dynamics. When it was made, the disparity between rural and city voting weight was relatively minor.

We know the reason the Electoral College exists because the writers of the Constitution explained their reasoning in the Federalist Papers, and this is not correct. "To give small states a voice and prevent them from being overwhelmed by the larger states" is the reason the Senate has two senators per state regardless of size.

The Electoral College exists because the founders mistrusted the average lowly uneducated commoner with the weighty task of choosing a president. Also in 1787 there was simply no feasible way to run an election / campaign across ALL 13 STATES!!!!!1! But they didn't just want politicians to be able to pick one either.

So instead they introduced a middleman: people directly elect educated elites from their district who they know and trust to be capable of representing their interests and are actually capable of making educated decisions, and those Electors spend several days riding their horses over to New York City (later Philadelphia) to meet the candidates and eventually vote on which one they wanted.

It was equally desirable, that the immediate election should be made by men most capable of analyzing the qualities adapted to the station, and acting under circumstances favorable to deliberation, and to a judicious combination of all the reasons and inducements which were proper to govern their choice. A small number of persons, selected by their fellow-citizens from the general mass, will be most likely to possess the information and discernment requisite to such complicated investigations.

A role which has been made entirely moot by technological advancement and all the states deciding to move to a system where people vote for which president they want and then the state selects Electors who will vote for that president. The Electoral College is a vestige of history, and serves no purpose today except to occasionally accidentally deny the will of the people.