Nibbled me some more to put in cash this morning but still 25% below my yearly set withdrawal. With Nasdaq and S&P hitting new highs and only 25 stocks hitting new highs made sense to sell some VTI now. Goes Higher still have room to take. This market it crazy. End of the shortest Bear ever. A lot of cash still on the sidelines so market could in reality still go a lot higher. Interesting times to say the least.
We still have about a million exposed to this market. FOMO and greed keeps me in. This economy will not stand on it's own anytime soon. It's all about more stimulus (debt). Who is gling to be the adult and take the punch bowl away? Will the Biden administration put on big boy pants and focus on debt? I doubt it. So this works as long as it works.
Nobody will be focusing on the debt or deficit any time soon. Republicans will keep taxes lower or take them even lower and fund more stimulus (money for nothing) and money shall continue to print to the sky. If democrats take over then they will raise taxes across the board to fund about 30% of their agenda and more stimulus (money for nothing) so the other 70% will also require printing money to the sky.
As an investor and FIRE person I have mixed feelings about each, on one hand low taxes and stimulus is good for markets so my stash will be ever larger (until its not), on the other the tax proposals from the dems will be bad for markets but if I get lower or even free expanded health care AND college for everyone (I have 3 kids 11-15) AND the tax rates only go up for really wealthy then maybe for me individually I actually do about the same from a WR view point. Plus all that money I set aside for college is now mine again so maybe I end up with more, haha.
Crystal Ball Dream scenariosRepublicans Win - move all to equities, reps win and lower taxes even more and provides stimulus, markets get to even crazier levels.
Democrats Win - move all to bonds/cash, dems win, taxes go up, markets go down but still crazy levels bc just lost 16% of income to taxes, then buy back in. Also get free health care and my kids get free college. That all sounds nice.
Of course, I wouldn't be all stocks or all bonds/cash so I can't participate in the dreams. But my portfolio is the most conservative its ever been so I am fairly hedged either way I suppose.
BTW, I fully expect Biden to win and the house will certainly remain democrat but I am not sure (nobody is) about what will happen in the senate. Personally I would like Biden to win and the senate to stay republican as I think some balance or discourse is good for everyone.