Author Topic: Twitter  (Read 138796 times)

rocketpj

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1100 on: August 09, 2024, 12:27:33 AM »

At a certain level of wealth, it makes sense (from a self-interested perspective) to be libertarian. You don't even need to be Musk level. A couple of professional workers earning combined high-six figures in wages will be paying more in tax each year than they could ever use in that time span in public services. Even accounting for the need for private security, etc, there's no way that a couple of DINKs' infrastructure needs would exceed $300k a year.

I think you vastly underestimate the value provided by common services. 

twinstudy

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1101 on: August 09, 2024, 01:10:16 AM »

At a certain level of wealth, it makes sense (from a self-interested perspective) to be libertarian. You don't even need to be Musk level. A couple of professional workers earning combined high-six figures in wages will be paying more in tax each year than they could ever use in that time span in public services. Even accounting for the need for private security, etc, there's no way that a couple of DINKs' infrastructure needs would exceed $300k a year.

I think you vastly underestimate the value provided by common services.

Well, I checked for my country (Australia) and total government revenue is about $600 billion per year. Assuming that is all spent on 'common services', that comes out to around $30-$35k per year per adult in this country. So about $65k per couple. How would a high-earning couple spend 5x the amount of common services as an average couple? Hospital services aren't required any more for wealthier people - indeed, I pay for private health insurance so I use public services less than average people. I don't commute to work so I use roads less. I don't receive any welfare so I use cash handouts less. I don't use the military or navy any more or less than others. Unless you are going to say that the value of economic stability increases linearly with someone's net worth, you're not going to be able to bridge the gap.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1102 on: August 09, 2024, 06:12:35 AM »
Musk's public behavior is partly - but not entirely - the result of being on the Autism spectrum. 
I've heard something along these lines before, but is sounds a lot like the armchair psychological speculation about Trump having narcissistic personality disorder or Biden suffering senility. Do you know if this diagnosis has been confirmed or admitted to somehow? Is it a group of experts' opinion? Or is it sort of an observation lots of people on the internet have had?

In my view, Media Matters did a "hit piece".  They had bots load Twitter over and over until they got their 1 in a million story.  Is that ethical journalism?  I don't view it as good journalism.

Twitter should detect combinations of story and advertisement that are inappropriate, and prevent the ads from being shown.  Media Matters detected a flaw, although it isn't clear users had hit that same flaw yet.  My guess is Media Matters prevails in the lawsuit, because they actually found what they claimed.

At the risk of "what-about-ism", Google and Facebook should have already learned this lesson, but apparently haven't.

"Google has been accused of profiting from people looking up suicide methods after a Telegraph investigation found the tech giant advertising rope in its search results."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/03/google-profiting-people-researching-suicide-advertising-rope/

https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/meta-hide-posts-suicide-eating-disorders-from-teens-instagram-facebook-feeds/
"Meta to hide posts about suicide, eating disorders from teens' Instagram and Facebook feeds"
IDK, let's compare this to standard investigative journalism and see if we can find a difference. Suppose 60 Minutes or somebody is investigating a supplement company for having toxic contaminants in their products. They act as fake customers to buy dozens of products in multiple states and have a lab analyze the results. Then they call the company's help line and record the interactions while they request help with the product, again posing as someone they're not. As a result, the journalists' "hit piece" informs hundreds of thousands of Americans about a danger to their health and alerts government regulators to a major problem.

This is similar to what happened with Firestone tires in the early 2000's. The tires were blowing out and causing crashes, particularly in Ford Explorers and particularly on hot days. The company denied anything was wrong, but journalists did a "hit piece" exposing the flaws. Next thing you know, executives are being interrogated by Congress and tire quality control mysteriously improves.

With social media or search companies, everyone gets different results. If the journalists used only a few accounts as evidence for their hit piece, their work could be criticized for relying on a tiny sample size or leaning too hard on anecdotal evidence. The bot approach yields a more defensible answer and shows a systemic pattern in systems designed to generate variable results for different people. There is no other way that someone like a middle-aged man who doesn't use Instagram could ever learn about how teenage girls often go into a depressive spiral after starting the app. We need investigative journalists and their methods to uncover that.

Similarly, we need investigative journalists to use subterfuge to uncover dangerous medications, supplements, and consumer products, as well as corrupt political practices, scams, misinformation operations, and miscarriages of justice. I think anyone doing such work deserves special legal protections under the 1st Amendment because of the value of their "hit pieces" to society. Think about the whistleblowers who were interviewed for The Social Dilemma, a modern day version of Upton Sinclair's The Jungle, and imagine a society that would use the legal system to suppress them instead of considering the value of their message.
Elon Musk announced he has autism when he hosted Saturday Night Live.
"And I'm actually making history tonight as the first person with Asperger's to host SNL."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sr_SPUGJTwE&t=12s

Firestone tires were already causing accidents before the investigation.  Media Matters found a combination of story and ad that nobody else saw, and that may have never been seen.  They made the same attempt over and over until they got what they wanted.  It's not clear to me that Media Matters found a real harm... more like a possible bug that nobody had hit.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1103 on: August 09, 2024, 06:14:22 AM »
Also saying him blabbering insane right wing conspiracy theories is beause he is autistic is an insult to autists.
I might accept that this is the reason for him to force 60+ workhour weeks on his people since he also does this, but not him ignoring people that this might be a bad idea long term. Or him lying about his daughter. Or...
You might read my post again(*) before trying to put words in my mouth.

People with autism struggle in social situations.  Reading social cues off other people's faces is difficult.  There are clear advantages to skipping in-person interaction when it is a struggle.  I strongly suspect autism is a factor in Elon Musk preferring Twitter over dealing with people in person.

(*)
Musk's public behavior is partly - but not entirely - the result of being on the Autism spectrum.  He is unable to process social interactions the way 98% of people can (the other 2% being ASD).
« Last Edit: August 09, 2024, 06:25:05 AM by MustacheAndaHalf »

FireLane

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1104 on: August 09, 2024, 06:35:03 AM »
Elon Musk uses Twitter to spread a deepfake AI of Kamala Harris, ignoring his own rule against manipulated media:

Quote
The video Musk shared on Friday alters a recent campaign video Harris released, one that makes it sound like the presidential candidate said things she didn’t. The manipulated clip has Harris saying things like she is “the ultimate diversity hire” and that she “had four years under the tutelage of the ultimate deep state puppet, a wonderful mentor, Joe Biden.” The original account that had posted the video labeled it, “Kamala Harris Campaign Ad PARODY,” a disclaimer that might prevent it from violating X’s policies. But this context did not appear in Musk’s repost. Instead, Musk’s post simply showed the video, adding his own commentary: “This is amazing,” with a laughing emoji.

...Under X’s policies, “synthetic, manipulated, or out-of-context media that may deceive or confuse people and lead to harm” is not allowed on the platform.

Personally, I don't think autism is a get-out-of-jail-free card for acting as if rules apply to everyone except you.

GuitarStv

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1105 on: August 09, 2024, 08:35:29 AM »
Elon Musk uses Twitter to spread a deepfake AI of Kamala Harris, ignoring his own rule against manipulated media:

Quote
The video Musk shared on Friday alters a recent campaign video Harris released, one that makes it sound like the presidential candidate said things she didn’t. The manipulated clip has Harris saying things like she is “the ultimate diversity hire” and that she “had four years under the tutelage of the ultimate deep state puppet, a wonderful mentor, Joe Biden.” The original account that had posted the video labeled it, “Kamala Harris Campaign Ad PARODY,” a disclaimer that might prevent it from violating X’s policies. But this context did not appear in Musk’s repost. Instead, Musk’s post simply showed the video, adding his own commentary: “This is amazing,” with a laughing emoji.

...Under X’s policies, “synthetic, manipulated, or out-of-context media that may deceive or confuse people and lead to harm” is not allowed on the platform.

Personally, I don't think autism is a get-out-of-jail-free card for acting as if rules apply to everyone except you.

Yeah.  That's what money is for!  :P

Fru-Gal

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1106 on: August 09, 2024, 09:44:00 AM »
Quote
At a certain level of wealth, it makes sense (from a self-interested perspective) to be libertarian.

All these billionaire Republicans who claim to hate large government are rich BECAUSE of government contracts.

RWD

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1107 on: August 09, 2024, 01:55:32 PM »
Elon Musk uses Twitter to spread a deepfake AI of Kamala Harris, ignoring his own rule against manipulated media:

Quote
The video Musk shared on Friday alters a recent campaign video Harris released, one that makes it sound like the presidential candidate said things she didn’t. The manipulated clip has Harris saying things like she is “the ultimate diversity hire” and that she “had four years under the tutelage of the ultimate deep state puppet, a wonderful mentor, Joe Biden.” The original account that had posted the video labeled it, “Kamala Harris Campaign Ad PARODY,” a disclaimer that might prevent it from violating X’s policies. But this context did not appear in Musk’s repost. Instead, Musk’s post simply showed the video, adding his own commentary: “This is amazing,” with a laughing emoji.

...Under X’s policies, “synthetic, manipulated, or out-of-context media that may deceive or confuse people and lead to harm” is not allowed on the platform.

Personally, I don't think autism is a get-out-of-jail-free card for acting as if rules apply to everyone except you.

Yeah.  That's what money is for!  :P

=(

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1108 on: August 10, 2024, 11:11:10 AM »
Elon Musk uses Twitter to spread a deepfake AI of Kamala Harris, ignoring his own rule against manipulated media:

Quote
The video Musk shared on Friday alters a recent campaign video Harris released, one that makes it sound like the presidential candidate said things she didn’t. The manipulated clip has Harris saying things like she is “the ultimate diversity hire” and that she “had four years under the tutelage of the ultimate deep state puppet, a wonderful mentor, Joe Biden.” The original account that had posted the video labeled it, “Kamala Harris Campaign Ad PARODY,” a disclaimer that might prevent it from violating X’s policies. But this context did not appear in Musk’s repost. Instead, Musk’s post simply showed the video, adding his own commentary: “This is amazing,” with a laughing emoji.

...Under X’s policies, “synthetic, manipulated, or out-of-context media that may deceive or confuse people and lead to harm” is not allowed on the platform.
Personally, I don't think autism is a get-out-of-jail-free card for acting as if rules apply to everyone except you.
Which isn't what I said in my earlier post:

Musk's public behavior is partly - but not entirely - the result of being on the Autism spectrum.  He is unable to process social interactions the way 98% of people can (the other 2% being ASD).

LennStar

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1109 on: August 11, 2024, 12:10:48 AM »
This hasn't anything to do with autism, this is simple, crystal clear racism. And he knows it. I mean read the second tweet.


bill1827

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1110 on: August 11, 2024, 03:35:33 AM »
"This meme could get you 3 years in prison in the UK"

He's right and so it should. I only wish that UK jurisdiction could reach out to Musk.

Edit. Actually he's probably wrong. That post is just a racist lie. Prison terms are for inciting violence, which I think he has done, but not in this post.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2024, 03:49:05 AM by bill1827 »

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1111 on: August 11, 2024, 04:50:27 AM »
I am sure that was in the part of seeming to be helpless to boast their confidence.

It's amazing how many people think a big child's little child tantrums are a sign of genius. Both Musk and Trump are simply obsesst with themselves and can't accept when somebody else does not agree to them. I guess more people want to live out their inner child and can't do it, and that is why they are so faszinated.
So everyone acting like an adult in public is a genius?

Musk's public behavior is partly - but not entirely - the result of being on the Autism spectrum.  He is unable to process social interactions the way 98% of people can (the other 2% being ASD).

Roughly a hundred electric car companies failed, yet Musk took over Tesla and made it a success.  Okay, not a genius... then he guided SpaceX towards reusable rockets, which had never been done.  I think those companies could not have succeeded without his problem solving abilities.  To me, that is a better indication of someone being a genius.
LennStar - This discussion started with you bringing up "little child tantrums are a sign of genius", and since that time you have repeatedly tried to put words in my mouth, and refused to engage on the point you originally brought up.  "racism" and "insane right wing conspiracy theories" are not "child tantrums", and do not relate to the earlier discussion.  Each time, you clearly mention words I brought up, but refuse to include my prior post as context for your replies.  You are deliberately, repeatedly, putting words in my mouth and trying to get away with it by refusing to quote what I said.


Also saying him blabbering insane right wing conspiracy theories is beause he is autistic is an insult to autists.
I might accept that this is the reason for him to force 60+ workhour weeks on his people since he also does this, but not him ignoring people that this might be a bad idea long term. Or him lying about his daughter. Or...

This hasn't anything to do with autism, this is simple, crystal clear racism. And he knows it. I mean read the second tweet.

LennStar

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1112 on: August 11, 2024, 10:04:56 AM »
Quote
You are deliberately, repeatedly, putting words in my mouth
I have never, ever put any words in anyones mouth.

Quote
and trying to get away with it by refusing to quote what I said.
I may have missed one sometimes. Happens. But more importantly I am under the assumption that you don't need to blow up posts by quoting 5 people who have talked about autism when making a statement about autism.
If you feel different, that is your right. But I never try to "get away" with it, whatever you mean by that.

----
btw. imho saying I don't quote you and then say I put words in your mouth is sort of contradictory.

GuitarStv

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1113 on: August 13, 2024, 02:12:30 PM »
Does anyone buy Musk's claims that Twitter was hacked during his conversation with Trump?  This looks an awful lot like previous failures to be able to maintain service when lots of people are trying to join and stay logged in.  Given the amount of engineers that Musk laid off, it's not hard to believe that they're just unable to do what was promised.

Kris

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1114 on: August 13, 2024, 02:24:39 PM »
Does anyone buy Musk's claims that Twitter was hacked during his conversation with Trump?  This looks an awful lot like previous failures to be able to maintain service when lots of people are trying to join and stay logged in.  Given the amount of engineers that Musk laid off, it's not hard to believe that they're just unable to do what was promised.

Psh. That was just incompetence.

bacchi

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1115 on: August 13, 2024, 02:30:13 PM »
Does anyone buy Musk's claims that Twitter was hacked during his conversation with Trump?  This looks an awful lot like previous failures to be able to maintain service when lots of people are trying to join and stay logged in.  Given the amount of engineers that Musk laid off, it's not hard to believe that they're just unable to do what was promised.

I'll believe the hack when someone takes credit for it. It's a major loss of bots for an anonymous attack.

dividendman

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1116 on: August 13, 2024, 03:02:10 PM »
Does anyone buy Musk's claims that Twitter was hacked during his conversation with Trump?  This looks an awful lot like previous failures to be able to maintain service when lots of people are trying to join and stay logged in.  Given the amount of engineers that Musk laid off, it's not hard to believe that they're just unable to do what was promised.

Almost definitely not the case. Why? Because other livestreams and twitter features weren't impacted. It's highly unlikely the DOS attack Must first alluded to would only impact one stream. More likely, as before with DeSantis, Twitter just can't do things well at scale/peaks... whether that has to do with layoffs or not is anyone's guess.

Travis

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1117 on: August 13, 2024, 10:51:30 PM »
Does anyone buy Musk's claims that Twitter was hacked during his conversation with Trump?  This looks an awful lot like previous failures to be able to maintain service when lots of people are trying to join and stay logged in.  Given the amount of engineers that Musk laid off, it's not hard to believe that they're just unable to do what was promised.

Almost definitely not the case. Why? Because other livestreams and twitter features weren't impacted. It's highly unlikely the DOS attack Must first alluded to would only impact one stream. More likely, as before with DeSantis, Twitter just can't do things well at scale/peaks... whether that has to do with layoffs or not is anyone's guess.

Twitter itself was fine. Spaces was fine. This one particular Spaces event crapped out just like the last one he did.

LennStar

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1118 on: August 14, 2024, 12:51:05 AM »
Does anyone buy Musk's claims that Twitter was hacked during his conversation with Trump?  This looks an awful lot like previous failures to be able to maintain service when lots of people are trying to join and stay logged in.  Given the amount of engineers that Musk laid off, it's not hard to believe that they're just unable to do what was promised.

Psh. That was just incompetence.
It was also incompetence that the stream showed only 1.1 million viewers instead of the 60-80 million Trump was saying were listening. Because Trump is always right!!!

FireLane

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1119 on: August 16, 2024, 06:21:26 AM »
This article from Fortune is mostly about Twitter, but has implications for anyone who holds Tesla: Elon Musk’s financial woes at X have Tesla bulls fearing he will liquidate more stock.

Although Twitter isn't public anymore, the best estimates are that it's losing huge amounts of money since Mr. Big-Brain Genius told his advertisers to go fuck themselves and then sued them for going and fucking themselves. The New York Times obtained internal financial figures for Q2:

Quote
According to this report, X booked $114 million worth of revenue in the U.S., its largest market by far. This represented a 25% drop over the preceding three months and a 53% drop over the year-ago period.

That already sounds bad. But it gets worse. The last publicly available figures prior to Musk’s acquisition, from Q2 of 2022, had revenue at $661 million. After you account for inflation, revenue has actually collapsed by 84%, in today’s dollars.

No one knows how much longer X can survive, since the company doesn’t release financial results. But in November, Musk himself admitted X could face bankruptcy due to the advertiser boycott.

Since then all talk about reaching cash flow breakeven, let alone turning an actual profit, has ceased. In and of itself this is unusual for someone like Musk, who is comfortable announcing targets so aggressive and unrealistic that he repeatedly fails to meet them.

If Musk isn't going to shut Twitter down, he's going to have to put a lot more money into keeping it afloat. The only way for him to do that is to sell his Tesla stock - lots of it. That's going to put downward pressure on the price:

Quote
“I would be expecting something between $1 and $2 billion in stock,” said Bradford Ferguson, president and chief investment officer of asset manager Halter Ferguson Financial, in comments posted to YouTube on Wednesday. This alone could cause the stock to lose between 5% and 10% of its value. “It’s a massive hole they need to plug.”

ChpBstrd

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1120 on: August 16, 2024, 06:41:10 AM »
Quote
Cognitive deficits as well as increased dissociation and delusion symptoms were observed in frequent recreational users of ketamine.
-Wikipedia
It's one helluva drug.

GuitarStv

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1121 on: August 16, 2024, 07:27:12 AM »
I just don't think you guys are smart enough to understand the 5 dimensional chess game that Musk is playing.

Glenstache

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1122 on: August 16, 2024, 10:29:53 AM »
I just don't think you guys are smart enough to understand the 5 dimensional chess game that Musk is playing.
That may be true. But, we are smart enough to see that he's on a regular chess board. I guess that explains why he keeps dropping the pieces in mid air tho.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1123 on: August 16, 2024, 11:00:48 AM »
… it's losing huge amounts of money since Mr. Big-Brain Genius told his advertisers to go fuck themselves and then sued them for going and fucking themselves…

Ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!  Well put.

Villanelle

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1124 on: August 16, 2024, 11:25:29 AM »
This article from Fortune is mostly about Twitter, but has implications for anyone who holds Tesla: Elon Musk’s financial woes at X have Tesla bulls fearing he will liquidate more stock.

Although Twitter isn't public anymore, the best estimates are that it's losing huge amounts of money since Mr. Big-Brain Genius told his advertisers to go fuck themselves and then sued them for going and fucking themselves. The New York Times obtained internal financial figures for Q2:

Quote
According to this report, X booked $114 million worth of revenue in the U.S., its largest market by far. This represented a 25% drop over the preceding three months and a 53% drop over the year-ago period.

That already sounds bad. But it gets worse. The last publicly available figures prior to Musk’s acquisition, from Q2 of 2022, had revenue at $661 million. After you account for inflation, revenue has actually collapsed by 84%, in today’s dollars.

No one knows how much longer X can survive, since the company doesn’t release financial results. But in November, Musk himself admitted X could face bankruptcy due to the advertiser boycott.

Since then all talk about reaching cash flow breakeven, let alone turning an actual profit, has ceased. In and of itself this is unusual for someone like Musk, who is comfortable announcing targets so aggressive and unrealistic that he repeatedly fails to meet them.

If Musk isn't going to shut Twitter down, he's going to have to put a lot more money into keeping it afloat. The only way for him to do that is to sell his Tesla stock - lots of it. That's going to put downward pressure on the price:

Quote
“I would be expecting something between $1 and $2 billion in stock,” said Bradford Ferguson, president and chief investment officer of asset manager Halter Ferguson Financial, in comments posted to YouTube on Wednesday. This alone could cause the stock to lose between 5% and 10% of its value. “It’s a massive hole they need to plug.”

And just this possibility (likelihood?) may push prices down, before he even sells anything.  Which means he'd need to sell even more stock, which means prices would be pushed down even more. 

If I held Tesla, I'd be dumping it ASAP, hoping to do so ahead of at least some of the slower-to-move holders. 

Metalcat

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1125 on: August 16, 2024, 12:26:59 PM »
This article from Fortune is mostly about Twitter, but has implications for anyone who holds Tesla: Elon Musk’s financial woes at X have Tesla bulls fearing he will liquidate more stock.

Although Twitter isn't public anymore, the best estimates are that it's losing huge amounts of money since Mr. Big-Brain Genius told his advertisers to go fuck themselves and then sued them for going and fucking themselves. The New York Times obtained internal financial figures for Q2:

Quote
According to this report, X booked $114 million worth of revenue in the U.S., its largest market by far. This represented a 25% drop over the preceding three months and a 53% drop over the year-ago period.

That already sounds bad. But it gets worse. The last publicly available figures prior to Musk’s acquisition, from Q2 of 2022, had revenue at $661 million. After you account for inflation, revenue has actually collapsed by 84%, in today’s dollars.

No one knows how much longer X can survive, since the company doesn’t release financial results. But in November, Musk himself admitted X could face bankruptcy due to the advertiser boycott.

Since then all talk about reaching cash flow breakeven, let alone turning an actual profit, has ceased. In and of itself this is unusual for someone like Musk, who is comfortable announcing targets so aggressive and unrealistic that he repeatedly fails to meet them.

If Musk isn't going to shut Twitter down, he's going to have to put a lot more money into keeping it afloat. The only way for him to do that is to sell his Tesla stock - lots of it. That's going to put downward pressure on the price:

Quote
“I would be expecting something between $1 and $2 billion in stock,” said Bradford Ferguson, president and chief investment officer of asset manager Halter Ferguson Financial, in comments posted to YouTube on Wednesday. This alone could cause the stock to lose between 5% and 10% of its value. “It’s a massive hole they need to plug.”

What may also be factored into market reaction to him selling is that last time he sold Tesla stock to buy Twitter, he then threatened to essentially walk away if he wasn't just given more so that he could maintain control. How many times can he have his cake and eat it too?

Seriously though, the senior executives at Tesla must be just miserable these days. I can't even imagine how stressed they all are.

Reading accounts of what it was like to work under him at PayPal was rough, and that was a version of Musk that was far less wealthy, far less influential, far less insane, and much more contained by equally forceful personalities in the founders and executives team.

I can't even fathom what being a senior executive at Tesla is like.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2024, 12:29:01 PM by Metalcat »

GuitarStv

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1126 on: August 16, 2024, 12:36:27 PM »
This article from Fortune is mostly about Twitter, but has implications for anyone who holds Tesla: Elon Musk’s financial woes at X have Tesla bulls fearing he will liquidate more stock.

Although Twitter isn't public anymore, the best estimates are that it's losing huge amounts of money since Mr. Big-Brain Genius told his advertisers to go fuck themselves and then sued them for going and fucking themselves. The New York Times obtained internal financial figures for Q2:

Quote
According to this report, X booked $114 million worth of revenue in the U.S., its largest market by far. This represented a 25% drop over the preceding three months and a 53% drop over the year-ago period.

That already sounds bad. But it gets worse. The last publicly available figures prior to Musk’s acquisition, from Q2 of 2022, had revenue at $661 million. After you account for inflation, revenue has actually collapsed by 84%, in today’s dollars.

No one knows how much longer X can survive, since the company doesn’t release financial results. But in November, Musk himself admitted X could face bankruptcy due to the advertiser boycott.

Since then all talk about reaching cash flow breakeven, let alone turning an actual profit, has ceased. In and of itself this is unusual for someone like Musk, who is comfortable announcing targets so aggressive and unrealistic that he repeatedly fails to meet them.

If Musk isn't going to shut Twitter down, he's going to have to put a lot more money into keeping it afloat. The only way for him to do that is to sell his Tesla stock - lots of it. That's going to put downward pressure on the price:

Quote
“I would be expecting something between $1 and $2 billion in stock,” said Bradford Ferguson, president and chief investment officer of asset manager Halter Ferguson Financial, in comments posted to YouTube on Wednesday. This alone could cause the stock to lose between 5% and 10% of its value. “It’s a massive hole they need to plug.”

What may also be factored into market reaction to him selling is that last time he sold Tesla stock to buy Twitter, he then threatened to essentially walk away if he wasn't just given more so that he could maintain control. How many times can he have his cake and eat it too?

Seriously though, the senior executives at Tesla must be just miserable these days. I can't even imagine how stressed they all are.

Reading accounts of what it was like to work under him at PayPal was rough, and that was a version of Musk that was far less wealthy, far less influential, far less insane, and much more contained by equally forceful personalities in the founders and executives team.

I can't even fathom what being a senior executive at Tesla is like.

They've only lost half the board in a year.  That's not very high turnover for execs at a company is it?  :P

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1127 on: August 16, 2024, 03:57:02 PM »
I can't even fathom what being a senior executive at Tesla is like.

My best friend was an executive at Tesla (1-2 levels below Musk). He quit about a year ago after having his first child (at the end of 6 months of paid paternity leave). It was high stress environment, but he was also getting hundreds of thousands of dollars every quarter in stock options on top of his base salary - definitely some golden handcuffs. I remember when he started in an executive training program years earlier, he said he was surrounded by the highest performing group he had ever experienced. Just working there a few years made him a millionaire. It was a demanding role but well compensated. Sounds similar to the culture at SpaceX. Get the best people you can, push them incredibly hard, and produce extraordinary results.

Say what you want about Musk, but you can't argue with the results. He built two very successful companies (simultaneously) that completely changed their respective industries of space flight and automobiles. Twitter is basically a very expensive hobby in comparison.

Telecaster

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1128 on: August 16, 2024, 04:02:25 PM »
This article from Fortune is mostly about Twitter, but has implications for anyone who holds Tesla: Elon Musk’s financial woes at X have Tesla bulls fearing he will liquidate more stock.


I don't think this is a big deal.   Bezos sold $13 billion of Amazon stock this year.   Didn't seem to move the needle.   

Telecaster

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1129 on: August 16, 2024, 05:46:02 PM »
I can't even fathom what being a senior executive at Tesla is like.

I don't know what being a senior exec is like, but I've mostly good things about working at Tesla.   The culture is to hire smart people and then let them do their jobs.   A lot of people believe in the mission of bringing electric cars to the masses, so there is a positive feeling about what they are doing.

Musk's willingness and ability to make big bets on things that won't happen until far into the future is very rare in today's business world.   I give him full props for that and he deserves the success he's had.  But he's been reading too much of his own fan mail.   

He's a power Twitter user with millions of followers, so to him Twitter seems like this big, important thing.   But if you barely use Twitter (like me, I occasionally read, never tweet), it is almost meaningless.   Getting rid of the blue check marks shows that he doesn't understand how most people use Twitter.    He thought it was a status symbol, but in fact it was a way to make the network more useful.    Eventually, he had to bring it back.   He wasted a lot of time learning something other people had already figured out.   

The jury is out on the Cybertruck.   There were enough pre-orders for a five year backlog.  However, you can already order a Cybertruck for immediate delivery.   The pre-orders didn't convert to sales because Musk way overpromised and undelivered on the specs and price.  This looks like it is going to be a flop.

Instead of developing the Cybertruck, Tesla should have been developing a low price car for the masses--something Musk said was always the goal.  That's where the market is taking off and Tesla missed it. 

On the higher end of the market, competitors are cutting into Tesla's market share and sales, not to mention margins.   Tesla models are in great need of a refresh, and I'm not sure why that hasn't happened yet.   

Musk is betting heavily on the Robotaxi, however the technology isn't there yet and might not be for several years.  And Tesla might not be the winner.


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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1130 on: August 16, 2024, 06:54:57 PM »
I can't even fathom what being a senior executive at Tesla is like.

My best friend was an executive at Tesla (1-2 levels below Musk). He quit about a year ago after having his first child (at the end of 6 months of paid paternity leave). It was high stress environment, but he was also getting hundreds of thousands of dollars every quarter in stock options on top of his base salary - definitely some golden handcuffs. I remember when he started in an executive training program years earlier, he said he was surrounded by the highest performing group he had ever experienced. Just working there a few years made him a millionaire. It was a demanding role but well compensated. Sounds similar to the culture at SpaceX. Get the best people you can, push them incredibly hard, and produce extraordinary results.

Say what you want about Musk, but you can't argue with the results. He built two very successful companies (simultaneously) that completely changed their respective industries of space flight and automobiles. Twitter is basically a very expensive hobby in comparison.

To be clear, I wasn't talking about the general culture at Tesla, I'm speaking more to the enormous fucking mess of the recent compensation vote, the enormous conflict within the board, Musk threatening to walk and develop a competing AI company if he wasn't handed over more stock, etc, etc.

It's pretty common sense that any company going through that kind of upper echelon conflict is going to have some very, very stressed out senior executives.

Travis

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1131 on: August 16, 2024, 09:28:50 PM »
This article from Fortune is mostly about Twitter, but has implications for anyone who holds Tesla: Elon Musk’s financial woes at X have Tesla bulls fearing he will liquidate more stock.


I don't think this is a big deal.   Bezos sold $13 billion of Amazon stock this year.   Didn't seem to move the needle.

Bezos also sold during periods that Amazon was spiking in value. $5 billion and $8 billion sales against a company worth $2 trillion. Tesla is worth a third of that and has had a bumpy year. Musk might have to sell while it's already on a downward trajectory. Timed with him deciding to Tweet something else inflammatory - who knows.

Glenstache

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1132 on: August 16, 2024, 09:56:18 PM »
#BillionaireProblems

Just Joe

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1133 on: August 16, 2024, 10:09:16 PM »
I just don't think you guys are smart enough to understand the 5 dimensional chess game that Musk is playing.

Yep, he is cratering the value of X so he can sell it to Tesla and then shed Space X debt, and then once Trump appoints him to the justice department, he'll take on....

I'm sure all that would make perfect sense if we just had his brain power.

LennStar

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1134 on: August 17, 2024, 01:35:45 AM »
Nobody doubts that Musk was able to do some remarable successes together with his failures (which come with the thing mostly).

The problem with Musk is, that he is not a leader but a prophet.

That is why he can get people work so hard. He creates a vision, an utopia, and collects the smartest people that believe in that dream, who then work themselves to the bones. And everyone who is of a different opinion than the prophet is an idiot and should burn in hell if they dare to do anything that the prophet does not like (like water usage restrictions).

That is also the reason why he sued advertisers who he told to leave for leaving. Nobody not religiously convinced of themselves would even get the idea.

blue_green_sparks

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1135 on: August 17, 2024, 06:22:38 AM »
Nobody doubts that Musk was able to do some remarable successes together with his failures (which come with the thing mostly).

The problem with Musk is, that he is not a leader but a prophet.

That is why he can get people work so hard. He creates a vision, an utopia, and collects the smartest people that believe in that dream, who then work themselves to the bones. And everyone who is of a different opinion than the prophet is an idiot and should burn in hell if they dare to do anything that the prophet does not like (like water usage restrictions).

That is also the reason why he sued advertisers who he told to leave for leaving. Nobody not religiously convinced of themselves would even get the idea.
Yep, flawed monkey brains always looking for another imagined hero/prophet. Just a cult-loving species, we are. Sheep that need protection and guidance from superheroes (who are often lavished with praise, wealth and much ass-kissing.) Seems the appeal is amplified with any looming disaster.

If the timeline of the planet was 24 hours, we show up at 11:58 (conjured-up from a bronze-age superhero golem spell, lol) and what disaster we bring. Homo Sapiens is not even going to make it for 3 minutes. Oh, sorry, I forgot. The egomaniacs will save us.

sonofsven

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1136 on: August 17, 2024, 10:47:44 AM »
Nobody doubts that Musk was able to do some remarable successes together with his failures (which come with the thing mostly).

The problem with Musk is, that he is not a leader but a prophet.

That is why he can get people work so hard. He creates a vision, an utopia, and collects the smartest people that believe in that dream, who then work themselves to the bones. And everyone who is of a different opinion than the prophet is an idiot and should burn in hell if they dare to do anything that the prophet does not like (like water usage restrictions).

That is also the reason why he sued advertisers who he told to leave for leaving. Nobody not religiously convinced of themselves would even get the idea.
Yep, flawed monkey brains always looking for another imagined hero/prophet. Just a cult-loving species, we are. Sheep that need protection and guidance from superheroes (who are often lavished with praise, wealth and much ass-kissing.) Seems the appeal is amplified with any looming disaster.

If the timeline of the planet was 24 hours, we show up at 11:58 (conjured-up from a bronze-age superhero golem spell, lol) and what disaster we bring. Homo Sapiens is not even going to make it for 3 minutes. Oh, sorry, I forgot. The egomaniacs will save us.
No problem, we'll just mosey on up to Mars
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MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1137 on: August 18, 2024, 09:15:59 AM »
The jury is out on the Cybertruck.   There were enough pre-orders for a five year backlog.  However, you can already order a Cybertruck for immediate delivery.   The pre-orders didn't convert to sales because Musk way overpromised and undelivered on the specs and price.  This looks like it is going to be a flop.
Covid-19 restrictions in California pissed off Elon Musk enough to shift his headquarters to Texas - going from a blue to red state.  Musk bought Twitter in Oct 2022, claiming conservatives were being de-platformed there, which is another move that likely would appeal to rural Republican voters.  I think with those moves, he might have assumed he picked up a lot of truck-loving customers.  But I figured Ford knows their customers better than Tesla, and those customers are also loyal.

With Cybertruck and Twitter, Musk viewed products through their technology - not their customers.  Right now, he seems to have polarized Twitter's customer base, mostly repelling them.  Democrats tend to be younger and Republicans tend to be older - which is a problem if you want customers who adopt new technology.

Advertisers provide the revenue Twitter runs on.  Suing them won't bring them back, and could create ill will that keeps them away.  Maybe Twitter needs cash so badly, that the potential windfall from a lawsuit is worth the risk.  This reminds me of the scene in Citizen Kane.  The title character, who owns a newspaper, said he could keep losing a million a year for the next fifty years (in 1941 dollars).
« Last Edit: August 18, 2024, 09:17:49 AM by MustacheAndaHalf »

EvenSteven

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1138 on: August 18, 2024, 06:50:26 PM »
Decent short documentary about Elon buying twitter:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u_Tx1SG0Clw

FireLane

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1139 on: August 20, 2024, 07:50:31 PM »
Today's story in the Wall Street Journal. The title says it all: Elon Musk’s Twitter Takeover Is Now the Worst Buyout for Banks Since the Financial Crisis.

The Twitter acquisition has gone so badly that the loans Musk took out to do it are the financial equivalent of toxic waste. The banks which unwisely lent him the money are stuck with these bad loans. They can't sell them and get them off the books like they usually do, because no one else wants them either:

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The $13 billion that Elon Musk borrowed to buy Twitter has turned into the worst merger-finance deal for banks since the 2008-09 financial crisis.

The seven banks involved in the deal, including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, lent the money to the billionaire’s holding company to take the social-media platform, now named X, private in October 2022. Banks that provide loans for takeovers generally sell the debt quickly to other investors to get it off their balance sheets, making money on fees.

The banks haven’t been able to offload the debt without incurring major losses—largely because of X’s weak financial performance—leaving the loans stuck on their balance sheets, or “hung” in industry jargon. The resulting write-downs have hobbled the banks’ loan books and, in one case, was a factor that crimped compensation for a bank’s merger department, according to people involved with the deal.

...Steven Kaplan, a professor of finance at the University of Chicago who has tracked such deals since the 1980s, said Twitter isn’t only the biggest hung deal by dollar amount since the 2008 financial crisis but one of the biggest of all time.

“The loans have weighed on the banks for much longer than other hung deals we’ve seen,” he said.

bacchi

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1140 on: August 20, 2024, 10:24:22 PM »
Today's story in the Wall Street Journal. The title says it all: Elon Musk’s Twitter Takeover Is Now the Worst Buyout for Banks Since the Financial Crisis.

The Twitter acquisition has gone so badly that the loans Musk took out to do it are the financial equivalent of toxic waste. The banks which unwisely lent him the money are stuck with these bad loans. They can't sell them and get them off the books like they usually do, because no one else wants them either:

Quote
The $13 billion that Elon Musk borrowed to buy Twitter has turned into the worst merger-finance deal for banks since the 2008-09 financial crisis.

The seven banks involved in the deal, including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, lent the money to the billionaire’s holding company to take the social-media platform, now named X, private in October 2022. Banks that provide loans for takeovers generally sell the debt quickly to other investors to get it off their balance sheets, making money on fees.

The banks haven’t been able to offload the debt without incurring major losses—largely because of X’s weak financial performance—leaving the loans stuck on their balance sheets, or “hung” in industry jargon. The resulting write-downs have hobbled the banks’ loan books and, in one case, was a factor that crimped compensation for a bank’s merger department, according to people involved with the deal.

...Steven Kaplan, a professor of finance at the University of Chicago who has tracked such deals since the 1980s, said Twitter isn’t only the biggest hung deal by dollar amount since the 2008 financial crisis but one of the biggest of all time.

“The loans have weighed on the banks for much longer than other hung deals we’ve seen,” he said.

No one saw that coming. </s>

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1141 on: August 20, 2024, 10:34:56 PM »
No one saw that coming. </s>

For sure and for sizzle.  Question though - aren't the loans backed by Musk's Tesla stock?  Or does that only become a factor if Twitter actually folds? 

LennStar

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1142 on: August 20, 2024, 11:20:43 PM »
No one saw that coming. </s>

For sure and for sizzle.  Question though - aren't the loans backed by Musk's Tesla stock?  Or does that only become a factor if Twitter actually folds?
Good question. I don't know the loan terms. What if Tesla also goes bankrupt?

But I have no pity for the banks at all. Musk bought an overpriced service that just barely made profit. Even at an impossible 50% profit rate it would have taken more than a decade to recoup the buying price. At more realistic rates we are talking about a timeframe on the level of "since the invention of the www to today". How many services to you know that survived that long? Search engines. And? Maybe Amazon.
Social networks? I don't think there is one that survived that long in any size that would allow enough income.

Travis

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1143 on: August 20, 2024, 11:37:14 PM »
No one saw that coming. </s>

For sure and for sizzle.  Question though - aren't the loans backed by Musk's Tesla stock?  Or does that only become a factor if Twitter actually folds?

There's several layers to this. He had to offer up cash, leverage Tesla stock, bank loans at interest rates tied directly to the Fed rate (so they've gone up quite a bit the last couple years), and put up Twitter itself as collateral.

GuitarStv

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1144 on: August 21, 2024, 07:50:20 AM »
Quote
The resulting write-downs have hobbled the banks’ loan books and, in one case, was a factor that crimped compensation for a bank’s merger department, according to people involved with the deal.

Someone in finance was held slightly financially accountable for fucking up???  That's one of the most shocking things I've ever read!

blue_green_sparks

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1145 on: August 25, 2024, 08:44:39 PM »

RWD

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1146 on: August 26, 2024, 09:15:21 AM »
hmmm...
https://eutoday.net/russian-oligarch-behind-musks-twitter-purchase/
A U.S. venture capital firm that was only in the top 100 of funds/banks/whatever that assisted in the Twitter acquisition employs two sons of oligarchs. Seems like a bunch of nothing.

FireLane

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1147 on: August 30, 2024, 05:03:38 PM »
Twitter has been banned in Brazil for defying a judge's orders.

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A judge in Brazil has ordered the suspension of X after owner Elon Musk failed to designate a new legal representative for the country, according to reports from Bloomberg and local news outlet Poder360.

Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes told the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel) to limit access to X within 24 hours and has given Apple and Google five days to remove X from their mobile app stores.

...The Brazilian justice opened an investigation into X in April after Musk said he reactivated accounts that X was ordered to block over the spread of misinformation. As reported by The New York Times, many of the accounts de Moraes ordered X to block are linked to supporters of the right-wing former President Jair Bolsonaro.

According to a report I read, this represents about 7% of its claimed monthly users.

Surprisingly, Twitter isn't arguing that they won't comply because they believe in free speech, regardless of what the law says. For all Musk's hypocrisy, that's a position I'd be forced to agree with.

Rather, Twitter is making a truly bonkers argument. According to them, Elon Musk understands Brazilian law better than Brazil's Supreme Court, and if Musk determines that the court's order is illegal, then he has the right to ignore it:

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“We are absolutely not insisting that other countries have the same free speech laws as the United States,” X said in a Thursday evening post from its global government affairs account. “The fundamental issue at stake here is that Judge de Moraes demands we break Brazil’s own laws. We simply won’t do that.” In that post, X also said it would publish “all of Judge de Moraes’ illegal demands and all related court filings.”

That is... quite a take!

LennStar

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1148 on: August 31, 2024, 02:19:20 AM »
The width of Musk's genius is litarelly breathtaking!


Michael in ABQ

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Re: Twitter
« Reply #1149 on: August 31, 2024, 11:52:43 AM »
Twitter has been banned in Brazil for defying a judge's orders.

Quote
A judge in Brazil has ordered the suspension of X after owner Elon Musk failed to designate a new legal representative for the country, according to reports from Bloomberg and local news outlet Poder360.

Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes told the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel) to limit access to X within 24 hours and has given Apple and Google five days to remove X from their mobile app stores.

...The Brazilian justice opened an investigation into X in April after Musk said he reactivated accounts that X was ordered to block over the spread of misinformation. As reported by The New York Times, many of the accounts de Moraes ordered X to block are linked to supporters of the right-wing former President Jair Bolsonaro.

According to a report I read, this represents about 7% of its claimed monthly users.

Surprisingly, Twitter isn't arguing that they won't comply because they believe in free speech, regardless of what the law says. For all Musk's hypocrisy, that's a position I'd be forced to agree with.

Rather, Twitter is making a truly bonkers argument. According to them, Elon Musk understands Brazilian law better than Brazil's Supreme Court, and if Musk determines that the court's order is illegal, then he has the right to ignore it:

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“We are absolutely not insisting that other countries have the same free speech laws as the United States,” X said in a Thursday evening post from its global government affairs account. “The fundamental issue at stake here is that Judge de Moraes demands we break Brazil’s own laws. We simply won’t do that.” In that post, X also said it would publish “all of Judge de Moraes’ illegal demands and all related court filings.”

That is... quite a take!

You left out the first part of that quote that provides some important context. Here's the full text and a link to the post from Global Government Affairs account from X.

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Soon, we expect Judge Alexandre de Moraes will order X to be shut down in Brazil – simply because we would not comply with his illegal orders to censor his political opponents. These enemies include a duly elected Senator and a 16-year-old girl, among others.

When we attempted to defend ourselves in court, Judge de Moraes threatened our Brazilian legal representative with imprisonment. Even after she resigned, he froze all of her bank accounts. Our challenges against his manifestly illegal actions were either dismissed or ignored. Judge de Moraes’ colleagues on the Supreme Court are either unwilling or unable to stand up to him.

We are absolutely not insisting that other countries have the same free speech laws as the United States. The fundamental issue at stake here is that Judge de Moraes demands we break Brazil’s own laws. We simply won’t do that.

In the days to come, we will publish all of Judge de Moraes’ illegal demands and all related court filings in the interest of transparency.

Unlike other social media and technology platforms, we will not comply in secret with illegal orders.

To our users in Brazil and around the world, X remains committed to protecting your freedom of speech.

I'm not an expert in Brazilian law but freezing the bank accounts of an attorney - even after they've resigned doesn't sound legal. It's not surprising that X didn't appoint a new legal representative (the legal fig leaf that the supreme court judge is using to shut them down) since that individual would immediately be subject to arrest and/or having their assets frozen.

https://x.com/GlobalAffairs/status/1829296715989414281

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!