The whole “EU needs to meet or exceed their 2% target” is BAD US policy. Like unimaginably bad. I know grievance politics is really popular but this is very bad for the US. US economic dominance over the last 80 years has been predicated on the EU being a vassal state to the US. A militarily weak EU was a win win for both countries. The US had the 3rd largest economy in the world dependent on them and could force them to move in lockstep with their business and economic goals, and the EU was able to invest in their social programs. An EU that is spending 2-3% is a military superpower capable of saying no to the US. If you follow European politics you would realize that their political priorities and the US priorities aren’t actually very aligned. They just have to be because of the US military. If the EU decides they don’t like the US business practices, like say they don’t want American technology in their country, they can say no. If they really don’t like what America is doing they could team up with China to send America into a Great Depression. The EU would become the decider on the fate of America and America would have to give up a great deal to keep the EU happy.
Previous administrations were smart enough to realize this without overtly calling the EU their vassal state, but this administration is built on nothing but grievance politics and as a result I think we will see the EU emerge as the third great military and economic superpower. And that is not a good position for America to be in.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this push to have the EU become an independent military superpower was pushed by China, at least partially. Breaking up the lockstep between America and the EU greatly benefits China as it enables them to build more economic ties between the two countries and can give them enormous leverage over the US.
I have thought about this a lot, as you make a lot of good points. With that being said, America is certainly a democracy and grants more freedoms than most countries in the world. However, as it sits, I find that many Europeans have general disdain/hate for Americans. A lot of it is due to the sensationalized news, and often not from first hand experience traveling/living here, or people they know personally.
Do we really think that Europe would trade their partnership with the U.S., for an oppressive and communist country, such as China? I don’t think that Europe has ever (or shouldn’t have) felt threatened by the U.S. in the sense of evasion or even our level of commitment in general to defense & support, although we are now asking them to step up.
Losing a U.S. partnership in trade for a communist China that has blatantly shown support for Russia, and threatened countries like Taiwan or invasions in Nepal, seems absolutely wild. If I was a European, I would be seriously afraid to partner with China..
The way to think about it is that the EU would be free to do what is in the best interests of the EU, which they are currently not free to do. They would probably never integrate or have as strong an alliance with China as the previous alliance with the US, but they will do what in the best interest of the EU, not what is in the best interest of America, which is a MASSIVE departure from the last 80 years. The EU has had to go along with a lot of economic policies that were not in the EU best interests because the US wanted, and maintaining that military alliance was a bigger priority for them. However, a EU that is no longer militarily held to the US will pursue economic and global policies that THEY want, and they can disregard what the Americans want, and that there may be instances where China and the EU have things in common. Like for instance, the EU could negotiate a deal that would give Chinese products better access to EU markets in exchange for cutting off support of Russia. Or they could even enter into an agreement where they work together to force an economic collapse of Russia and divide it up between them, such an agreement would be very beneficial for both countries and there isn't much America could do about that (if the last 2000 years of european history tells us anything it's that they have no problem expanding european borders and have always wanted russia). They could decide that they have claim to the arctic territories and that they and Canada decide to work together, taking greater control of Canadian resources while giving the US fewer resources, and there would largely be nothing America could do about something like that. Vance could give his little stupid lecture about free speech and they could walk out of it, immediately pass laws banning certain US tech from the EU, and then work with China to pressure countries like India and Brazil to do the same, massively limiting American influence globally, and there would be nothing America could do about it. They could work to build a Latin America that is united like the EU, with a strong alliance between the two regions and exclude the US, and there wouldn't be much the US could do about it. They would build their military R+D and pay for less American military R+D, causing the US MIC to lose hundreds of billions in funds and fall behind China and the EU in military technology.
A militarized EU may not be Americans friend and supporter on key issues to America, they will have the ability to pick and choose what they want to work with America on to the benefit of EU citizens and the detriment of Americans, and there's not much America could do about that as the EU doesn't really need America for much other than military. The Trump administration foreign policy is incredibly bad for America long term, like so incredibly bad it's hard to put it into words. I was a talk the other day with some leading foreign policy experts, 2 of whom were former prime ministers of large EU nations, and these were all examples they gave of where the EU could find common ground and their general opinion is that the Trump admins approach to the EU and Canada is going to push them towards China and that is basically the end of American dominance on the world stage, and that is very, very bad for America over the next 50 years. Grievance politics over how NATO hasn't paid enough is an incredibly, incredibly bad take for Americans, it is what has enabled America to become the wealthiest country in the history of the world.
