The Money Mustache Community
Other => Off Topic => Topic started by: Ron Scott on December 15, 2024, 08:33:18 AM
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I find it very difficult to say anything positive about Trump and this doesn’t change anything. But at the same time, Trump hates to sit idle when an opportunity can be exploited. Maybe this is one?
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I would bet money that he didn't write that. Too coherent.
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I would bet money that he didn't write that. Too coherent.
Yup. Not enough hyperbole either.
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No way he wrote that. Now, if his team wrote it and are thinking/planning that coherently there is hope.
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I wonder too if intelligence and the lack of decisive progress of the war makes it more evident to Trump & his circle that Russia isn’t the superpower it claims to be?
US governments and our acclaimed “free and open” media have overestimated the strength of our adversaries and underestimated the difficulty of successfully invading another country for my entire life LOL. Makes you wonder, right?
Obama was correct: Russia is simply one of several regional powers in their area. Nothing more. Even before the Ukraine invasion their economy was about the size of Italy’s, and ruling with an iron fist doesn’t mean you’re not strategically weak.
Put a fork in them…
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I wonder too if intelligence and the lack of decisive progress of the war makes it more evident to Trump & his circle that Russia isn’t the superpower it claims to be?
US governments and our acclaimed “free and open” media have overestimated the strength of our adversaries and underestimated the difficulty of successfully invading another country for my entire life LOL. Makes you wonder, right?
Obama was correct: Russia is simply one of several regional powers in their area. Nothing more. Even before the Ukraine invasion their economy was about the size of Italy’s, and ruling with an iron fist doesn’t mean you’re not strategically weak.
Put a fork in them…
This has been evident since the first week of the invasion when Russia's military got stalled out and repulsed by a theoretically much inferior nation. This isn't new news, if Trumps inner circle is just figuring this out then they are as stupid as he is.
I don't think we need a thread for every half baked idea Trump tweets, he's an actual moron. A ceasefire isn't a new idea, and he's been saying this for the entire campaign, this is the same things he's always said. A ceasefire is also something Bidens team tried to negotiate many times, but the T&C of a ceasefire is hard for lots of reasons. Bidens team tried to get a ceasefire that was more on ukraines terms, Trump waffles back and forth all the time but is probably more likely to make it on russia's terms as he has more leverage over ukraine to force them to the table whether they like it or not, and Trump just want to say he has a ceasefire, whether it's good for ukraine or not doesn't matter, trump is a moron and not a serious diplomat.
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Why should Trump be able to negotiate something the two sides themselves were unable to negotiate?
The only possible answer would be that Trump, who hired a ghost writer to pen The Art of the Deal, is some sort of negotiating superstar. From Ukraine and Russia's perspectives, this is an offer. If they agree to let Trump take credit for a ceasefire and buttress his mystique among the fan base, they'll get some sort of concessions from the U.S. government.
For Russia, that probably means dropping sanctions, returning seized assets, running interference at the U.N, blocking war crimes investigations at the U.N, providing diplomatic cover for the largest land grab since WW2, and reducing U.S. military assets in Europe.
For Ukraine, the offer probably means not dropping all military support, not switching support to Russia, and not opposing the initial steps of a NATO bid.
None of these concessions are necessarily in the US's national interests, but they are expendable in exchange for Trump's political interests.
I would bet money that he didn't write that. Too coherent.
Agreed. We're in a golden age for critical thinking, where nothing is worth face value.
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Trump has been arguing for an end to the war in Ukraine since Russia invaded. His plan has always been for Ukraine to cede large tracts of land to Russia with iron clad promises that Russia won't invade a third time in the future. This is fully in line with what Putin wants.
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Trump has been arguing for an end to the war in Ukraine since Russia invaded. His plan has always been for Ukraine to cede large tracts of land to Russia with iron clad promises that Russia won't invade a third time in the future. This is fully in line with what Putin wants.
That always works sooo well.
Donald Neville Chamberlin Trump, sounds good, eh?
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"This is his time to act." Many meanings to that phrase.
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The trick in negotiating is to contain Russian aggression for a decade or so and push the EU to divert government spending to their militaries (most of them simply COULD NOT wage a serious war without the US taking the lead and to think they could act as a cohesive whole is laughable). If he can pull this off and give the US the ability to focus on China, he’d almost become redeemable. (Almost)
Russia may be a regional power, but they’re a threat to the EU and they’re spoilers who need to be taken down a few notches.
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I predict that this promise to end the Russia Ukraine war in 24 hours will be the first of many of Trump's broken campaign promises. The fact that he keeps bringing it up shows how clueless he is. I feel like I'm watching someone who's never been to war walk in to a minefield deliberately...
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Trump has been arguing for an end to the war in Ukraine since Russia invaded. His plan has always been for Ukraine to cede large tracts of land to Russia with iron clad promises that Russia won't invade a third time in the future. This is fully in line with what Putin wants.
And as others mentioned, Trump promised to end it before he was elected, and within 24 hours. The thing is, earlier this year U.S. Congress unexpectedly stopped providing military aid to Ukraine. Ukraine lasted for months while Congress debated. This time, Biden is front-loading aid, and Ukraine knows what to expect. They will last far longer than Trump expects.
Trump also never criticizes Putin. He sided with Putin over the CIA and other U.S. intelligence agencies. When asked about Putin killing people, Trump said "what about the U.S." killing people. Definitely seems like Trump is compromised with Putin. And Putin bullies Trump, like when he allowed nude photos of Trump's wife Melania on Russian TV.
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Trump also never criticizes Putin.
I disagree. In the initial post above, Trump criticizes Putin.
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Trump also never criticizes Putin.
I disagree. In the initial post above, Trump criticizes Putin.
Numerous posters disagree Trump wrote that post, and that's my take as well. If you think Trump wrote it, can you answer the criticisms of the other posters?
I would bet money that he didn't write that. Too coherent.
Yup. Not enough hyperbole either.
No way he wrote that. Now, if his team wrote it and are thinking/planning that coherently there is hope.
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Criticism of Putin would be saying that he is responsible for bith violating sovereignty and a massive number of deaths and should bear accountability. Saying that Ukraine is a war that never should have happened is faint criticism guven that Putin believes that Ukraine isn't its own country and should have been Russia all along. If anythi g this says that he would be willing to give Putin an out from a self-made mess and keep the territory he stole. It's also just gibberish to make his base see him as engaged on the world stage.
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Well, it sounded critical to me…but OK.
Anyway, maybe in addition to Greenland and the Panama Canal, Trump will try to buy Ukraine and make it part of America. Nothing would surprise me.
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Well, it sounded critical to me…but OK.
Anyway, maybe in addition to Greenland and the Panama Canal, Trump will try to buy Ukraine and make it part of America. Nothing would surprise me.
Hmm, Canada and Greenland are neighbours across Baffin Bay. So perhaps he thinks that, when the US absorbs Canada .,Greenland will be adjacent and easier to get?
Oh, does he think Greenland is nice because of the name?
Canadian colonists helped British regulars burn the white house way back when. Just saying. The US has invaded Canada twice and been kicked out twice.
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Well, it sounded critical to me…but OK.
Anyway, maybe in addition to Greenland and the Panama Canal, Trump will try to buy Ukraine and make it part of America. Nothing would surprise me.
Hmm, Canada and Greenland are neighbours across Baffin Bay. So perhaps he thinks that, when the US absorbs Canada .,Greenland will be adjacent and easier to get?
Oh, does he think Greenland is nice because of the name?
Canadian colonists helped British regulars burn the white house way back when. Just saying. The US has invaded Canada twice and been kicked out twice.
I hope he doesn’t really want Canada. We have enough complainers down here to last generations…
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Well, it sounded critical to me…but OK.
Anyway, maybe in addition to Greenland and the Panama Canal, Trump will try to buy Ukraine and make it part of America. Nothing would surprise me.
Hmm, Canada and Greenland are neighbours across Baffin Bay. So perhaps he thinks that, when the US absorbs Canada .,Greenland will be adjacent and easier to get?
Oh, does he think Greenland is nice because of the name?
Canadian colonists helped British regulars burn the white house way back when. Just saying. The US has invaded Canada twice and been kicked out twice.
I hope he doesn’t really want Canada. We have enough complainers down here to last generations…
We've noticed. And you've been exporting it.
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Well, it sounded critical to me…but OK.
Anyway, maybe in addition to Greenland and the Panama Canal, Trump will try to buy Ukraine and make it part of America. Nothing would surprise me.
Hmm, Canada and Greenland are neighbours across Baffin Bay. So perhaps he thinks that, when the US absorbs Canada .,Greenland will be adjacent and easier to get?
Oh, does he think Greenland is nice because of the name?
Canadian colonists helped British regulars burn the white house way back when. Just saying. The US has invaded Canada twice and been kicked out twice.
I hope he doesn’t really want Canada. We have enough complainers down here to last generations…
We've noticed. And you've been exporting it.
Seriously. I would dearly love to emigrate to Canada. But I can’t imagine they would want us.
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Well, it sounded critical to me…but OK.
Anyway, maybe in addition to Greenland and the Panama Canal, Trump will try to buy Ukraine and make it part of America. Nothing would surprise me.
Hmm, Canada and Greenland are neighbours across Baffin Bay. So perhaps he thinks that, when the US absorbs Canada .,Greenland will be adjacent and easier to get?
Oh, does he think Greenland is nice because of the name?
Canadian colonists helped British regulars burn the white house way back when. Just saying. The US has invaded Canada twice and been kicked out twice.
I hope he doesn’t really want Canada. We have enough complainers down here to last generations…
We've noticed. And you've been exporting it.
Seriously. I would dearly love to emigrate to Canada. But I can’t imagine they would want us.
It's doable. It just isn't fast and easy.
I don't know the details but we have a points system. The more points you score the better. There are web sites to check out.
If you are serious dm me.
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Well, it sounded critical to me…but OK.
Anyway, maybe in addition to Greenland and the Panama Canal, Trump will try to buy Ukraine and make it part of America. Nothing would surprise me.
If Trump did not write that post, it doesn't matter if "it sounded critical" to you, because it wasn't Trump. I notice you're giving a non answer to the point I raised, while also dropping the context of our conversation, so I'll copy it below.
Trump also never criticizes Putin.
I disagree. In the initial post above, Trump criticizes Putin.
Numerous posters disagree Trump wrote that post, and that's my take as well.
[/quote]
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Well, it sounded critical to me…but OK.
Anyway, maybe in addition to Greenland and the Panama Canal, Trump will try to buy Ukraine and make it part of America. Nothing would surprise me.
Hmm, Canada and Greenland are neighbours across Baffin Bay. So perhaps he thinks that, when the US absorbs Canada .,Greenland will be adjacent and easier to get?
Oh, does he think Greenland is nice because of the name?
Canadian colonists helped British regulars burn the white house way back when. Just saying. The US has invaded Canada twice and been kicked out twice.
I hope he doesn’t really want Canada. We have enough complainers down here to last generations…
We've noticed. And you've been exporting it.
Seriously. I would dearly love to emigrate to Canada. But I can’t imagine they would want us.
Good luck!
I am staying in the Lower 48, searching high and low for my “We’re Still Here” t-shirt I put away somewhere in ‘21.
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Anyway, my brand of neverTrumpism isn’t consumed with notions of him being Putin’s lapdog or somehow compromised by Putin.
What I see now is Putin playing a stupid hand by refusing to enter reasonable negotiations with Trump over Ukraine and Trump getting pissed.
I would not be surprised to see the war continue well into ‘25, with Trump dumping major arms and related support for Ukraine to teach Putin a lesson, while twisting the EUs arms hard to shift resources to their militaries and providing more direct support to Zelenski.
Something tells me Trump isn’t the type to sit on top of the most powerful military and economy in the world and just bend over for a 3rd rate prick like Putin.
Trump watched W “look into Putin’s soul” LOL, Obama try and fail at “resets” of the relationship, and Biden trickle bullets with strings attached to no decisive end. I don’t think he wants to be another milquetoast president in that mold.
Of course I could be wrong!
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There was a huge amount of communication and money flowing between Trump/Trump's election team and Russia that was uncovered by Robert Mueller's report prior to the last time that Trump took office. I don't know if that is because he's Putin's lapdog, is compromised, or it was simply a marriage of convenience at the time. I guess the latter is the best possible outcome for the future?
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There was a huge amount of communication and money flowing between Trump/Trump's election team and Russia that was uncovered by Robert Mueller's report prior to the last time that Trump took office. I don't know if that is because he's Putin's lapdog, is compromised, or it was simply a marriage of convenience at the time. I guess the latter is the best possible outcome for the future?
Dude, there is no honor among thieves. When they go at each other, with their broken moral compasses, the guy with the bigger stick usually wins.
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There was a huge amount of communication and money flowing between Trump/Trump's election team and Russia that was uncovered by Robert Mueller's report prior to the last time that Trump took office. I don't know if that is because he's Putin's lapdog, is compromised, or it was simply a marriage of convenience at the time. I guess the latter is the best possible outcome for the future?
Dude, there is no honor among thieves. When they go at each other, with their broken moral compasses, the guy with the bigger stick usually wins.
What does this even mean? The both have sticks than can break the world and make it uninhabitable, literally. Nobody wins.
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Well, I don't think the US could've screwed up this 'peace talk' any worse if they tried! Russia has a no risk try to get concessions out of us (mainly relief on sanctions and less isolation) without seeming to offer much up. Ukraine has been pushed in to Europe's arms. Our Allies don't trust us. And China is likely sitting back with a giant smile on their face, as they feel Taiwan's situation becoming weaker by the day and China's place in the world moving up just by doing nothing...
As far as I can tell, the US hasn't gotten anything out of this other than to make our negotiating position weaker and less trustworthy. In fact, all the conflicting bluster and claims leading up to today has made us look like incompetent buffoons. Hundreds of Billions of dollars and decades of goodwill, all flushed down the drain in a month. If Trump really were a business genius, he'd understand that reputation can be one of the most valuable assets an enterprise has. Burnishing it takes time and money, losing it can be a catastrophic setback.
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There was a huge amount of communication and money flowing between Trump/Trump's election team and Russia that was uncovered by Robert Mueller's report prior to the last time that Trump took office. I don't know if that is because he's Putin's lapdog, is compromised, or it was simply a marriage of convenience at the time. I guess the latter is the best possible outcome for the future?
Dude, there is no honor among thieves. When they go at each other, with their broken moral compasses, the guy with the bigger stick usually wins.
Anyway, my brand of neverTrumpism isn’t consumed with notions of him being Putin’s lapdog or somehow compromised by Putin.
What I see now is Putin playing a stupid hand by refusing to enter reasonable negotiations with Trump over Ukraine and Trump getting pissed.
I would not be surprised to see the war continue well into ‘25, with Trump dumping major arms and related support for Ukraine to teach Putin a lesson, while twisting the EUs arms hard to shift resources to their militaries and providing more direct support to Zelenski.
Something tells me Trump isn’t the type to sit on top of the most powerful military and economy in the world and just bend over for a 3rd rate prick like Putin.
Trump watched W “look into Putin’s soul” LOL, Obama try and fail at “resets” of the relationship, and Biden trickle bullets with strings attached to no decisive end. I don’t think he wants to be another milquetoast president in that mold.
Of course I could be wrong!
I don't claim to know how the two autocrats will act, but as we evaluate certain "theories" about the Putin/Trump relationship, we can use the way events turn out to test hypotheses.
Here are some theories
Marriage of Convenience: Trump receives material support getting elected from Putin in the form of cash and social media farming, and in return gives up geopolitical concessions. Prediction: Sanctions relief, no more military or intel support for Ukraine, a ceasefire is negotiated that freezes current front lines. In return, Putin credits Trump for his great negotiating skills and we see more pro-Russia content in our social media feeds. However there is no deep mutual admiration, as the relationship is transactional.
Ideological Comrades: Like Hitler and Mussolini, Trump and Putin have a vision of the ideal authoritarian country. They see each other as a means to implement this ideal in their own nations, and to maintain their respective autocratic regimes through mutual support. Prediction: You see each leader touting the other's supposed successes and saying words to the effect of "why can't we do that here?". Sanctions relief and getting Russian oil flowing are Trump's top priorities, while cementing single-party control of the U.S. is Putin's top priority. The EU becomes the duo's common enemy, and the Trump administration turns outright hostile to European interests.
Piss Video: Putin has compromising information on Trump, or Trump fears him for other reasons. Prediction: Trump gives Putin everything he wants in Ukraine and threatens Ukraine into accepting a bad deal on behalf of Putin, on top of relieving sanctions. Trump gushes praise for Putin but Putin does not have to reciprocate as much.
Genuine Trump: Trump genuinely sees ending the Ukraine war as a key part of his legacy, and critical to reducing U.S. spending on the defense of Europe. If things can settle down in that region, US military bases can be wound down, freeing up budget for more tax cuts. He's negotiating with the Russians to see if a quick win is possible, but may walk away if both sides refuse to negotiate on ending hostilities. In this scenario, there'd be no need for ass-kissing.
So despite the similarities between Marriage of Convenience and Piss Video, I think we'll have our hypotheses tested soon.
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I suspect it's #4, with some #1 thrown in. There was an AMA on reddit in the summer with a top diplomat from in the EU who spent a lot of time with Trump during his first term. His take was that Trump was not a serious diplomat and largely did not care at all about anything unless he could claim victory and say he was the first who ever did it. In those situations he cared. Trump wants to say that he did it and that Biden couldn't because Biden sucked. He doesn't actually care at all whether the outcome is good, or what it does for Russia or for the US/EU relationship, etc. I don't think Trump has any consistent ideology or desire for a broader global sphere of authoritarianism. Blackmail or bribery is very possible, we already know he's being bribed with his crappy social media company and his crypto scams.
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I have found it interesting that now that Trump is buckling down on conversations with Russia, many European leaders are pissed for not having a seat at the table. The EU has had years to take a lead and a stance with Russia. So did Biden. It appears they just sat back waiting for the US to take lead, while the US provided more monetary support than all the countries in Europe combined.
No idea what Trump has planned, nor whether it will being amazing and monumental, or a disaster. That aside, I have no sympathy for the European leaders who *now* decide they want to be proactive, only after the US is finally starting to push hard to bring this thing to an end.
It doesn’t convey unity between us and Europe, but it sends a clear message.
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I would bet money that he didn't write that. Too coherent.
It has proper use of capitalization. Trump doesn't know the difference between common nouns and proper nouns.
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I have found it interesting that now that Trump is buckling down on conversations with Russia, many European leaders are pissed for not having a seat at the table. The EU has had years to take a lead and a stance with Russia. So did Biden. It appears they just sat back waiting for the US to take lead, while the US provided more monetary support than all the countries in Europe combined.
No idea what Trump has planned, nor whether it will being amazing and monumental, or a disaster. That aside, I have no sympathy for the European leaders who *now* decide they want to be proactive, only after the US is finally starting to push hard to bring this thing to an end.
It doesn’t convey unity between us and Europe, but it sends a clear message.
That's largely the result of decades of US foreign policy in the EU. Basically since WW2 America has not wanted the EU to build up their military to ensure that the EU was reliant on the US. This gave the US an incredible amount of soft power in that region and encouraging european investment in america and access to markets in europe. For instance Sweden in the 70s was very close to building nuclear weapons, the US didn't want that and got them to instead build nuclear power plants instead. It's similar for Canada, it was America who ended the Avro Arrow program in Canada and largely made Canada completely militarily dependent on them. Making the EU and Canada militarily dependent on the US has been a massive benefit to the US.
In the end, this may lead the EU to building a european army. It's important to remember that the EU has 1.5x USA's population, and has the 3rd largest GDP after China and America. When you add in their other close allies such as the UK, Australia, and Canada they are larger than the US and China. Normally that wouldn't be feasible as all the bickering between the countries stops such unification, but with America's betrayal and the threat of war from Russia, we could see some rapid unification on militarization.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20240530-2
This is a continent that could quickly become a military superpower, would not be subserviant to the US, and has a history of... being rather aggressive. If Americans want the EU to have a larger military, be careful what you wish for. The window this opens for China to ditch Russia as an ally and build closer ties with a rapidly militarizing EU who hates the betrayal of America, could get very, very bad for America. Like unimaginably bad. America could literally be looking at trading off the EU as an ally in favor of Russia, and China could ditch Russia and pick up a rapidly militarizing EU. Who gets the better of that trade? In that kind of scenario America becomes subservient to the new Chinese/EU alliance. The best case scenario is that the EU militarizes and starts to say no to America's businesses, or interests, ditch the USD as the GCR, and impose economic sanctions for things they don't like, and there would not be much America could do about it and that would send America into a second great depression.
For instance, here's the non-US Nato forces compared to Russia:
- Military personnel: 1.9m NATO vs 1.1m Russia
- Combat aircraft: 2.4k NATO vs 1.4k Russia
- Tanks: 6.6k NATO vs 2k Russia
- France and UK providing enough nuclear arsenal for maintaining a credible nuclear deterrent (MAD).
Source: IISS Military Balance
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@sixwings - thank you for the detailed thoughts. Very informative. Hopefully the worst case scenario mentioned is avoided.
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. . . and that's why you buy international stocks too! :P
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@sixwings - thank you for the detailed thoughts. Very informative. Hopefully the worst case scenario mentioned is avoided.
China already knows this is the game now, their government released a statement about building closer ties to the EU by working together to create a safe, secure and stable world and has been sending a lot of delegations which seem to be favourably received in the EU. China will absolutely sell out Russia to gain ties with the 3rd largest economy in the world that conveniently happens to hate America now. If China stops propping up Putin that probably creates a Russian collapse which would allow China to take their resources and expand North, which is probably a long term plan for them anyway. From an American standpoint, China and the EU creating stronger connection is an absolute nightmare scenario. Of course Trump thinks Russia is really cool so there you go.
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I have found it interesting that now that Trump is buckling down on conversations with Russia, many European leaders are pissed for not having a seat at the table. The EU has had years to take a lead and a stance with Russia. So did Biden. It appears they just sat back waiting for the US to take lead, while the US provided more monetary support than all the countries in Europe combined.
No idea what Trump has planned, nor whether it will being amazing and monumental, or a disaster. That aside, I have no sympathy for the European leaders who *now* decide they want to be proactive, only after the US is finally starting to push hard to bring this thing to an end.
It doesn’t convey unity between us and Europe, but it sends a clear message.
This is what happens dealing with my 9 year old. After many rounds of arguing and stalling, slightly after it's too late, he insists he had come around all along, and will do whatever it takes to avoid the consequences of his stalling.
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I have found it interesting that now that Trump is buckling down on conversations with Russia, many European leaders are pissed for not having a seat at the table. The EU has had years to take a lead and a stance with Russia. So did Biden. It appears they just sat back waiting for the US to take lead, while the US provided more monetary support than all the countries in Europe combined.
No idea what Trump has planned, nor whether it will being amazing and monumental, or a disaster. That aside, I have no sympathy for the European leaders who *now* decide they want to be proactive, only after the US is finally starting to push hard to bring this thing to an end.
It doesn’t convey unity between us and Europe, but it sends a clear message.
This is what happens dealing with my 9 year old. After many rounds of arguing and stalling, slightly after it's too late, he insists he had come around all along, and will do whatever it takes to avoid the consequences of his stalling.
dude US have treaties and agreements with Europe in exchange for disarmament and peace in europe. And we are breaking these treaties and agreements. It's only because the US cannot be trusted, they now have to militarize. Thanks for making the world less safe again, Trump.
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I have found it interesting that now that Trump is buckling down on conversations with Russia, many European leaders are pissed for not having a seat at the table. The EU has had years to take a lead and a stance with Russia. So did Biden. It appears they just sat back waiting for the US to take lead, while the US provided more monetary support than all the countries in Europe combined.
No idea what Trump has planned, nor whether it will being amazing and monumental, or a disaster. That aside, I have no sympathy for the European leaders who *now* decide they want to be proactive, only after the US is finally starting to push hard to bring this thing to an end.
It doesn’t convey unity between us and Europe, but it sends a clear message.
This is what happens dealing with my 9 year old. After many rounds of arguing and stalling, slightly after it's too late, he insists he had come around all along, and will do whatever it takes to avoid the consequences of his stalling.
dude US have treaties and agreements with Europe in exchange for disarmament and peace in europe. And we are breaking these treaties and agreements. It's only because the US cannot be trusted, they now have to militarize. Thanks for making the world less safe again, Trump.
I am no fan of Trump. The opposite. But the EU has *never* met its NATO commitments for defense spending. For sure, the continent road the wave of the peace dividend, and promised "progress" toward the COMMITMENT (not goal). Now, there is hand-wringing about how fast they can ramp up, should Putin further threaten the region.
"The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now."
With so little spending for so long, Europe's defense industry has atrophied. It will take time to fix, and there are risks while their capabilities remain substandard. That also has made the world less safe.
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I am no fan of Trump. The opposite. But the EU has *never* met its NATO commitments for defense spending. For sure, the continent road the wave of the peace dividend, and promised "progress" toward the COMMITMENT (not goal). Now, there is hand-wringing about how fast they can ramp up, should Putin further threaten the region.
"The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now."
With so little spending for so long, Europe's defense industry has atrophied. It will take time to fix, and there are risks while their capabilities remain substandard. That also has made the world less safe.
This is not really true. Europe is not a monolith. Most NATO members (https://www.statista.com/chart/14636/defense-expenditures-of-nato-countries/) meet their spending commitments.
But even then, you can't look at an arbitrary percentage and conclude that it is too much or too little. You have to look at what the money was spent on.
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I have found it interesting that now that Trump is buckling down on conversations with Russia, many European leaders are pissed for not having a seat at the table. The EU has had years to take a lead and a stance with Russia. So did Biden. It appears they just sat back waiting for the US to take lead, while the US provided more monetary support than all the countries in Europe combined.
No idea what Trump has planned, nor whether it will being amazing and monumental, or a disaster. That aside, I have no sympathy for the European leaders who *now* decide they want to be proactive, only after the US is finally starting to push hard to bring this thing to an end.
It doesn’t convey unity between us and Europe, but it sends a clear message.
This is what happens dealing with my 9 year old. After many rounds of arguing and stalling, slightly after it's too late, he insists he had come around all along, and will do whatever it takes to avoid the consequences of his stalling.
dude US have treaties and agreements with Europe in exchange for disarmament and peace in europe. And we are breaking these treaties and agreements. It's only because the US cannot be trusted, they now have to militarize. Thanks for making the world less safe again, Trump.
Up until 2023, only about 33% of the EU had met their agreed upon 2% of GDP spending on their defense. Great that they are finally picking it up, although largely it’s because of their concern of Russian thread and that Trump may be elected.. Kind of silly, “Oh, now that there’s actually a thread, and a potential future president that may hold us to the 2% we agreed on a decade ago, maybe we should actually start following that now.” But, of course, blame Trump for… holding these countries to their agreed upon defense spending?
What specific agreements have we not met in supporting the EU in regards to their safety/defense that you are referring to?
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The whole “EU needs to meet or exceed their 2% target” is BAD US policy. Like unimaginably bad. I know grievance politics is really popular but this is very bad for the US. US economic dominance over the last 80 years has been predicated on the EU being a vassal state to the US. A militarily weak EU was a win win for both countries. The US had the 3rd largest economy in the world dependent on them and could force them to move in lockstep with their business and economic goals, and the EU was able to invest in their social programs. An EU that is spending 2-3% is a military superpower capable of saying no to the US. If you follow European politics you would realize that their political priorities and the US priorities aren’t actually very aligned. They just have to be because of the US military. If the EU decides they don’t like the US business practices, like say they don’t want American technology in their country, they can say no. If they really don’t like what America is doing they could team up with China to send America into a Great Depression. The EU would become the decider on the fate of America and America would have to give up a great deal to keep the EU happy.
Previous administrations were smart enough to realize this without overtly calling the EU their vassal state, but this administration is built on nothing but grievance politics and as a result I think we will see the EU emerge as the third great military and economic superpower. And that is not a good position for America to be in.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this push to have the EU become an independent military superpower was pushed by China, at least partially. Breaking up the lockstep between America and the EU greatly benefits China as it enables them to build more economic ties between the two countries and can give them enormous leverage over the US.
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I have found it interesting that now that Trump is buckling down on conversations with Russia, many European leaders are pissed for not having a seat at the table. The EU has had years to take a lead and a stance with Russia. So did Biden. It appears they just sat back waiting for the US to take lead, while the US provided more monetary support than all the countries in Europe combined.
No idea what Trump has planned, nor whether it will being amazing and monumental, or a disaster. That aside, I have no sympathy for the European leaders who *now* decide they want to be proactive, only after the US is finally starting to push hard to bring this thing to an end.
It doesn’t convey unity between us and Europe, but it sends a clear message.
This is what happens dealing with my 9 year old. After many rounds of arguing and stalling, slightly after it's too late, he insists he had come around all along, and will do whatever it takes to avoid the consequences of his stalling.
dude US have treaties and agreements with Europe in exchange for disarmament and peace in europe. And we are breaking these treaties and agreements. It's only because the US cannot be trusted, they now have to militarize. Thanks for making the world less safe again, Trump.
Up until 2023, only about 33% of the EU had met their agreed upon 2% of GDP spending on their defense. Great that they are finally picking it up, although largely it’s because of their concern of Russian thread and that Trump may be elected.. Kind of silly, “Oh, now that there’s actually a thread, and a potential future president that may hold us to the 2% we agreed on a decade ago, maybe we should actually start following that now.” But, of course, blame Trump for… holding these countries to their agreed upon defense spending?
What specific agreements have we not met in supporting the EU in regards to their safety/defense that you are referring to?
Exactly. 2024 was too late.
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The whole “EU needs to meet or exceed their 2% target” is BAD US policy. Like unimaginably bad. I know grievance politics is really popular but this is very bad for the US. US economic dominance over the last 80 years has been predicated on the EU being a vassal state to the US. A militarily weak EU was a win win for both countries. The US had the 3rd largest economy in the world dependent on them and could force them to move in lockstep with their business and economic goals, and the EU was able to invest in their social programs. An EU that is spending 2-3% is a military superpower capable of saying no to the US. If you follow European politics you would realize that their political priorities and the US priorities aren’t actually very aligned. They just have to be because of the US military. If the EU decides they don’t like the US business practices, like say they don’t want American technology in their country, they can say no. If they really don’t like what America is doing they could team up with China to send America into a Great Depression. The EU would become the decider on the fate of America and America would have to give up a great deal to keep the EU happy.
Previous administrations were smart enough to realize this without overtly calling the EU their vassal state, but this administration is built on nothing but grievance politics and as a result I think we will see the EU emerge as the third great military and economic superpower. And that is not a good position for America to be in.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this push to have the EU become an independent military superpower was pushed by China, at least partially. Breaking up the lockstep between America and the EU greatly benefits China as it enables them to build more economic ties between the two countries and can give them enormous leverage over the US.
I don't think a second, capable, global democracy is a bad thing. It's true that it would upset the status quo. (or, the status quo of 2015, or 2022)
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The whole “EU needs to meet or exceed their 2% target” is BAD US policy. Like unimaginably bad. I know grievance politics is really popular but this is very bad for the US. US economic dominance over the last 80 years has been predicated on the EU being a vassal state to the US. A militarily weak EU was a win win for both countries. The US had the 3rd largest economy in the world dependent on them and could force them to move in lockstep with their business and economic goals, and the EU was able to invest in their social programs. An EU that is spending 2-3% is a military superpower capable of saying no to the US. If you follow European politics you would realize that their political priorities and the US priorities aren’t actually very aligned. They just have to be because of the US military. If the EU decides they don’t like the US business practices, like say they don’t want American technology in their country, they can say no. If they really don’t like what America is doing they could team up with China to send America into a Great Depression. The EU would become the decider on the fate of America and America would have to give up a great deal to keep the EU happy.
Previous administrations were smart enough to realize this without overtly calling the EU their vassal state, but this administration is built on nothing but grievance politics and as a result I think we will see the EU emerge as the third great military and economic superpower. And that is not a good position for America to be in.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this push to have the EU become an independent military superpower was pushed by China, at least partially. Breaking up the lockstep between America and the EU greatly benefits China as it enables them to build more economic ties between the two countries and can give them enormous leverage over the US.
I don't think a second, capable, global democracy is a bad thing. It's true that it would upset the status quo. (or, the status quo of 2015, or 2022)
For the world? Probably. For the US specifically? Very bad.
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Yes, agree this is not great for the U.S. Plus, when you have a bunch of people building up their militaries again and re-arming, and maybe reversing the nuclear nonproliferation policies of the past several decades, lots of things can happen.
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Yes, agree this is not great for the U.S. Plus, when you have a bunch of people building up their militaries again and re-arming, and maybe reversing the nuclear nonproliferation policies of the past several decades, lots of things can happen.
Europeans don't exactly have a long history of peace and democracy...
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I don't think a second, capable, global democracy is a bad thing. It's true that it would upset the status quo. (or, the status quo of 2015, or 2022)
For the world? Probably. For the US specifically? Very bad.
For the status quo US? Maybe not. For the long-term health of American democracy? Maybe so.
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The whole “EU needs to meet or exceed their 2% target” is BAD US policy. Like unimaginably bad. I know grievance politics is really popular but this is very bad for the US. US economic dominance over the last 80 years has been predicated on the EU being a vassal state to the US. A militarily weak EU was a win win for both countries. The US had the 3rd largest economy in the world dependent on them and could force them to move in lockstep with their business and economic goals, and the EU was able to invest in their social programs. An EU that is spending 2-3% is a military superpower capable of saying no to the US. If you follow European politics you would realize that their political priorities and the US priorities aren’t actually very aligned. They just have to be because of the US military. If the EU decides they don’t like the US business practices, like say they don’t want American technology in their country, they can say no. If they really don’t like what America is doing they could team up with China to send America into a Great Depression. The EU would become the decider on the fate of America and America would have to give up a great deal to keep the EU happy.
Previous administrations were smart enough to realize this without overtly calling the EU their vassal state, but this administration is built on nothing but grievance politics and as a result I think we will see the EU emerge as the third great military and economic superpower. And that is not a good position for America to be in.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this push to have the EU become an independent military superpower was pushed by China, at least partially. Breaking up the lockstep between America and the EU greatly benefits China as it enables them to build more economic ties between the two countries and can give them enormous leverage over the US.
I have thought about this a lot, as you make a lot of good points. With that being said, America is certainly a democracy and grants more freedoms than most countries in the world. However, as it sits, I find that many Europeans have general disdain/hate for Americans. A lot of it is due to the sensationalized news, and often not from first hand experience traveling/living here, or people they know personally.
Do we really think that Europe would trade their partnership with the U.S., for an oppressive and communist country, such as China? I don’t think that Europe has ever (or shouldn’t have) felt threatened by the U.S. in the sense of evasion or even our level of commitment in general to defense & support, although we are now asking them to step up.
Losing a U.S. partnership in trade for a communist China that has blatantly shown support for Russia, and threatened countries like Taiwan or invasions in Nepal, seems absolutely wild. If I was a European, I would be seriously afraid to partner with China..
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The whole “EU needs to meet or exceed their 2% target” is BAD US policy. Like unimaginably bad. I know grievance politics is really popular but this is very bad for the US. US economic dominance over the last 80 years has been predicated on the EU being a vassal state to the US. A militarily weak EU was a win win for both countries. The US had the 3rd largest economy in the world dependent on them and could force them to move in lockstep with their business and economic goals, and the EU was able to invest in their social programs. An EU that is spending 2-3% is a military superpower capable of saying no to the US. If you follow European politics you would realize that their political priorities and the US priorities aren’t actually very aligned. They just have to be because of the US military. If the EU decides they don’t like the US business practices, like say they don’t want American technology in their country, they can say no. If they really don’t like what America is doing they could team up with China to send America into a Great Depression. The EU would become the decider on the fate of America and America would have to give up a great deal to keep the EU happy.
Previous administrations were smart enough to realize this without overtly calling the EU their vassal state, but this administration is built on nothing but grievance politics and as a result I think we will see the EU emerge as the third great military and economic superpower. And that is not a good position for America to be in.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this push to have the EU become an independent military superpower was pushed by China, at least partially. Breaking up the lockstep between America and the EU greatly benefits China as it enables them to build more economic ties between the two countries and can give them enormous leverage over the US.
I have thought about this a lot, as you make a lot of good points. With that being said, America is certainly a democracy and grants more freedoms than most countries in the world. However, as it sits, I find that many Europeans have general disdain/hate for Americans. A lot of it is due to the sensationalized news, and often not from first hand experience traveling/living here, or people they know personally.
Do we really think that Europe would trade their partnership with the U.S., for an oppressive and communist country, such as China? I don’t think that Europe has ever (or shouldn’t have) felt threatened by the U.S. in the sense of evasion or even our level of commitment in general to defense & support, although we are now asking them to step up.
Losing a U.S. partnership in trade for a communist China that has blatantly shown support for Russia, and threatened countries like Taiwan or invasions in Nepal, seems absolutely wild. If I was a European, I would be seriously afraid to partner with China..
So far since election of Trump, the US has been attacking allies economically, threatening military attacks/annexation, and has been overtly supportive of Russia. While historically the US has been a good ally, this seems to be rapidly changing.
As a Canadian, I don't want our government sharing security information with systems that an unelected and non-security cleared group of private citizens is allowed to access without oversight. This is a radical departure from how I've felt about national security for most of my life, but only seems prudent now. It no longer feels safe to partner with America.
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The whole “EU needs to meet or exceed their 2% target” is BAD US policy. Like unimaginably bad. I know grievance politics is really popular but this is very bad for the US. US economic dominance over the last 80 years has been predicated on the EU being a vassal state to the US. A militarily weak EU was a win win for both countries. The US had the 3rd largest economy in the world dependent on them and could force them to move in lockstep with their business and economic goals, and the EU was able to invest in their social programs. An EU that is spending 2-3% is a military superpower capable of saying no to the US. If you follow European politics you would realize that their political priorities and the US priorities aren’t actually very aligned. They just have to be because of the US military. If the EU decides they don’t like the US business practices, like say they don’t want American technology in their country, they can say no. If they really don’t like what America is doing they could team up with China to send America into a Great Depression. The EU would become the decider on the fate of America and America would have to give up a great deal to keep the EU happy.
Previous administrations were smart enough to realize this without overtly calling the EU their vassal state, but this administration is built on nothing but grievance politics and as a result I think we will see the EU emerge as the third great military and economic superpower. And that is not a good position for America to be in.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this push to have the EU become an independent military superpower was pushed by China, at least partially. Breaking up the lockstep between America and the EU greatly benefits China as it enables them to build more economic ties between the two countries and can give them enormous leverage over the US.
I have thought about this a lot, as you make a lot of good points. With that being said, America is certainly a democracy and grants more freedoms than most countries in the world. However, as it sits, I find that many Europeans have general disdain/hate for Americans. A lot of it is due to the sensationalized news, and often not from first hand experience traveling/living here, or people they know personally.
Do we really think that Europe would trade their partnership with the U.S., for an oppressive and communist country, such as China? I don’t think that Europe has ever (or shouldn’t have) felt threatened by the U.S. in the sense of evasion or even our level of commitment in general to defense & support, although we are now asking them to step up.
Losing a U.S. partnership in trade for a communist China that has blatantly shown support for Russia, and threatened countries like Taiwan or invasions in Nepal, seems absolutely wild. If I was a European, I would be seriously afraid to partner with China..
The way to think about it is that the EU would be free to do what is in the best interests of the EU, which they are currently not free to do. They would probably never integrate or have as strong an alliance with China as the previous alliance with the US, but they will do what in the best interest of the EU, not what is in the best interest of America, which is a MASSIVE departure from the last 80 years. The EU has had to go along with a lot of economic policies that were not in the EU best interests because the US wanted, and maintaining that military alliance was a bigger priority for them. However, a EU that is no longer militarily held to the US will pursue economic and global policies that THEY want, and they can disregard what the Americans want, and that there may be instances where China and the EU have things in common. Like for instance, the EU could negotiate a deal that would give Chinese products better access to EU markets in exchange for cutting off support of Russia. Or they could even enter into an agreement where they work together to force an economic collapse of Russia and divide it up between them, such an agreement would be very beneficial for both countries and there isn't much America could do about that (if the last 2000 years of european history tells us anything it's that they have no problem expanding european borders and have always wanted russia). They could decide that they have claim to the arctic territories and that they and Canada decide to work together, taking greater control of Canadian resources while giving the US fewer resources, and there would largely be nothing America could do about something like that. Vance could give his little stupid lecture about free speech and they could walk out of it, immediately pass laws banning certain US tech from the EU, and then work with China to pressure countries like India and Brazil to do the same, massively limiting American influence globally, and there would be nothing America could do about it. They could work to build a Latin America that is united like the EU, with a strong alliance between the two regions and exclude the US, and there wouldn't be much the US could do about it. They would build their military R+D and pay for less American military R+D, causing the US MIC to lose hundreds of billions in funds and fall behind China and the EU in military technology.
A militarized EU may not be Americans friend and supporter on key issues to America, they will have the ability to pick and choose what they want to work with America on to the benefit of EU citizens and the detriment of Americans, and there's not much America could do about that as the EU doesn't really need America for much other than military. The Trump administration foreign policy is incredibly bad for America long term, like so incredibly bad it's hard to put it into words. I was a talk the other day with some leading foreign policy experts, 2 of whom were former prime ministers of large EU nations, and these were all examples they gave of where the EU could find common ground and their general opinion is that the Trump admins approach to the EU and Canada is going to push them towards China and that is basically the end of American dominance on the world stage, and that is very, very bad for America over the next 50 years. Grievance politics over how NATO hasn't paid enough is an incredibly, incredibly bad take for Americans, it is what has enabled America to become the wealthiest country in the history of the world.
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I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theory nut, but with Tulsi Gabbard and Kash Patel now installed in key positions, as well as Trump up-ending the status quo of American values vs. Russia for what has been my lifetime... Are we witnessing the rise of Putin and Russia? America's star will fade quickly once we fail to continue to sell our 'oh so fantastic' debt, so all bets are off during these next 4 years.
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I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theory nut, but with Tulsi Gabbard and Kash Patel now installed in key positions, as well as Trump up-ending the status quo of American values vs. Russia for what has been my lifetime... Are we witnessing the rise of Putin and Russia? America's star will fade quickly once we fail to continue to sell our 'oh so fantastic' debt, so all bets are off during these next 4 years.
It’s not nutty at all. The first time I heard Tulsi warning that we were risking Civil War by not capitulating to Trump’s interests — I believe during his first term, but could have been later — I was shocked. Now the Overton Window has moved such that I think Civil War is not so outlandish a possibility. Tulsi is batshit crazy and we have no explanation for why she turned. Same with Patel, but I know less of his history.
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I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theory nut, but with Tulsi Gabbard and Kash Patel now installed in key positions, as well as Trump up-ending the status quo of American values vs. Russia for what has been my lifetime... Are we witnessing the rise of Putin and Russia? America's star will fade quickly once we fail to continue to sell our 'oh so fantastic' debt, so all bets are off during these next 4 years.
It’s not nutty at all. The first time I heard Tulsi warning that we were risking Civil War by not capitulating to Trump’s interests — I believe during his first term, but could have been later — I was shocked. Now the Overton Window has moved such that I think Civil War is not so outlandish a possibility. Tulsi is batshit crazy and we have no explanation for why she turned. Same with Patel, but I know less of his history.
I feel like I'm taking crazy pills and everyone else in America is just wondering why I am so weird! I mean, America has always suspected that Russia could be our #1 adversary, and now we have a President that is genuflecting to Putin because Russia was so unfairly treated by a Ukraine that was, for all intents and purposes in the non-online world, going about it's day to day life?
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I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theory nut, but with Tulsi Gabbard and Kash Patel now installed in key positions, as well as Trump up-ending the status quo of American values vs. Russia for what has been my lifetime... Are we witnessing the rise of Putin and Russia? America's star will fade quickly once we fail to continue to sell our 'oh so fantastic' debt, so all bets are off during these next 4 years.
It’s not nutty at all. The first time I heard Tulsi warning that we were risking Civil War by not capitulating to Trump’s interests — I believe during his first term, but could have been later — I was shocked. Now the Overton Window has moved such that I think Civil War is not so outlandish a possibility. Tulsi is batshit crazy and we have no explanation for why she turned. Same with Patel, but I know less of his history.
I feel like I'm taking crazy pills and everyone else in America is just wondering why I am so weird! I mean, America has always suspected that Russia could be our #1 adversary, and now we have a President that is genuflecting to Putin because Russia was so unfairly treated by a Ukraine that was, for all intents and purposes in the non-online world, going about it's day to day life?
I do wonder what the Pentagon thinks of all this... I doubt they are totally cool with being Putins lapdog...
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You are not alone though. Read the comments on the Meidas touch YouTube podcast or read any comments on yahoo news on any article about Trump. More than half of all voting Americans are horrified.
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I guess, at the end of the day, if Republicans finally roll over on this one last most basic bastion of resistance... then nothing is off the table! I do hope just enough of the traditional resistance grows a spine, because this is certainly not a Democrats are ineffectual kinda thing... I understood that, but this is a whole new level of understanding of just how sclerotic the US situation has become.
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I feel like the US may be in the end game over this. Republicans who are in the DoD and Pentagon know that Russia is not America's friend...