Author Topic: Tariff Insanity  (Read 65260 times)

rocketpj

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #500 on: April 09, 2025, 09:48:54 AM »
Which means that the AI systems won't be built *** by US ***.  China will have no issues building them.

Yep.  Looks like Trump is ushering in the new era of Chinese world dominance/supremacy.  It'll be interesting to see how America reacts as it realizes that it's long term status is dipping to become a second class nation.

Apparently the derogatory term the Chinese use for Trump is 'the nation builder', as in 'His attacks on the world are causing other nations to unite'.

mtnrider

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #501 on: April 09, 2025, 10:44:34 AM »
Which means that the AI systems won't be built *** by US ***.  China will have no issues building them.

Yep.  Looks like Trump is ushering in the new era of Chinese world dominance/supremacy.  It'll be interesting to see how America reacts as it realizes that it's long term status is dipping to become a second class nation.

Apparently the derogatory term the Chinese use for Trump is 'the nation builder', as in 'His attacks on the world are causing other nations to unite'.

I also don't see how this can end well.  The Chinese are proud.  I can't imagine that they'll appreciate being called peasants by Vance.  And they have deep dark memories that make them allergic to a foreign power threatening them to buy goods.  See also the Opium Wars.

GuitarStv

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #502 on: April 09, 2025, 10:48:12 AM »
Which means that the AI systems won't be built *** by US ***.  China will have no issues building them.

Yep.  Looks like Trump is ushering in the new era of Chinese world dominance/supremacy.  It'll be interesting to see how America reacts as it realizes that it's long term status is dipping to become a second class nation.

Apparently the derogatory term the Chinese use for Trump is 'the nation builder', as in 'His attacks on the world are causing other nations to unite'.

I also don't see how this can end well.  The Chinese are proud.  I can't imagine that they'll appreciate being called peasants by Vance.  And they have deep dark memories that make them allergic to a foreign power threatening them to buy goods.  See also the Opium Wars.

Ironically, China is the source of an awful lot of the fentanyl used in the US given that they not only sell, but also subsidize the raw materials used to manufacture it.

BNgarden

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #503 on: April 09, 2025, 10:53:25 AM »
The tariffs on Canada make little sense to me. Antagonizing Canada and threatening to make them the “51st state” makes literally no sense. I have no idea why the United States would even want to take on Canada’s problems, which we would have to if they joined the union. Better to let them sort out their own mess.

Honestly the whole thing is kind of ridiculous. I can understand why we would want tariffs on certain manufactured goods from China and Mexico. But raw materials from Canada like oil and lumber? I don’t see how this is supposed to help the United States.

*Can we trade?  You get Alberta, we get Cascadia.    ;-)
Hey, much as we may deserve that, NO F**n way!

Also, @deborah the number is therefore -2 weeks.

jrhampt

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #504 on: April 09, 2025, 10:59:49 AM »
Did Vance actually call them peasants???  Or is that a paraphrase?

GuitarStv

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #505 on: April 09, 2025, 11:03:24 AM »
Did Vance actually call them peasants???  Or is that a paraphrase?

"To make it a little more crystal clear, we borrow money from Chinese peasants to buy the things those Chinese peasants manufacture." - JD Vance

Tigerpine

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #506 on: April 09, 2025, 11:06:29 AM »
Did Vance actually call them peasants???  Or is that a paraphrase?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20zd4k6d36o

Yep, he used that word.

Travis

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #507 on: April 09, 2025, 11:14:58 AM »
The House is going to vote today on whether or not to lock themselves out of turning off the tariffs until September.

https://x.com/jakesherman/status/1909996860850192543


GuitarStv

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #508 on: April 09, 2025, 11:15:45 AM »
The House is going to vote today on whether or not to lock themselves out of turning off the tariffs until September.

https://x.com/jakesherman/status/1909996860850192543

Hope they get what they want.

neo von retorch

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #509 on: April 09, 2025, 11:31:42 AM »
90 day pause is on

Except China, now 125%

mtnrider

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #510 on: April 09, 2025, 11:32:46 AM »
Which means that the AI systems won't be built *** by US ***.  China will have no issues building them.

Yep.  Looks like Trump is ushering in the new era of Chinese world dominance/supremacy.  It'll be interesting to see how America reacts as it realizes that it's long term status is dipping to become a second class nation.

Apparently the derogatory term the Chinese use for Trump is 'the nation builder', as in 'His attacks on the world are causing other nations to unite'.

I also don't see how this can end well.  The Chinese are proud.  I can't imagine that they'll appreciate being called peasants by Vance.  And they have deep dark memories that make them allergic to a foreign power threatening them to buy goods.  See also the Opium Wars.

Ironically, China is the source of an awful lot of the fentanyl used in the US given that they not only sell, but also subsidize the raw materials used to manufacture it.

Hm... using this comparison around someone with Chinese heritage might get you an earful.  China isn't forcing the US to sell fentanyl in the US, it's organized crime gangs supplying it.  When fentanyl was originally sent from China, it was the work of the Triad, not the government.  It's still a problem, but they see it very differently.  As you probably know, the penalty for illegal drug sales in China can be, and often is, death.  My understanding is that even smuggling the raw materials (which, I'm told, have some legitimate uses) to Mexico is only done by the Triad due to this.  Organized crime gangs also distribute the stuff here, so it's crime syndicates all the way through.

All that's an aside though, my point is that a trade war strikes a nerve.  The US is threatening China, complaining about a trade imbalance, and they have memories from the British doing that.

GuitarStv

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #511 on: April 09, 2025, 11:44:52 AM »
Which means that the AI systems won't be built *** by US ***.  China will have no issues building them.

Yep.  Looks like Trump is ushering in the new era of Chinese world dominance/supremacy.  It'll be interesting to see how America reacts as it realizes that it's long term status is dipping to become a second class nation.

Apparently the derogatory term the Chinese use for Trump is 'the nation builder', as in 'His attacks on the world are causing other nations to unite'.

I also don't see how this can end well.  The Chinese are proud.  I can't imagine that they'll appreciate being called peasants by Vance.  And they have deep dark memories that make them allergic to a foreign power threatening them to buy goods.  See also the Opium Wars.

Ironically, China is the source of an awful lot of the fentanyl used in the US given that they not only sell, but also subsidize the raw materials used to manufacture it.

Hm... using this comparison around someone with Chinese heritage might get you an earful.  China isn't forcing the US to sell fentanyl in the US, it's organized crime gangs supplying it.  When fentanyl was originally sent from China, it was the work of the Triad, not the government.  It's still a problem, but they see it very differently.  As you probably know, the penalty for illegal drug sales in China can be, and often is, death.  My understanding is that even smuggling the raw materials (which, I'm told, have some legitimate uses) to Mexico is only done by the Triad due to this.  Organized crime gangs also distribute the stuff here, so it's crime syndicates all the way through.

All that's an aside though, my point is that a trade war strikes a nerve.  The US is threatening China, complaining about a trade imbalance, and they have memories from the British doing that.

My wife is Chinese (her family fled back when the communists took over).  I did get an earful from her about it - but not the way you seem to envision it.  She strongly believes that this is a way for China to attack westerners in retaliation for the Opium Wars.  It's not entirely crime syndicates, it's also directly influenced by China's current government.  But don't take our word for it.

Quote
Investigators for a U.S. House committee released a report on Tuesday detailing what they describe as new evidence the Chinese government is continuing to "directly" subsidize "the manufacturing and export of illicit fentanyl."

According to the report, Chinese officials encourage production of precursor chemicals by giving "monetary grants and awards to companies openly trafficking illicit fentanyl materials."

Specifically, researchers found companies making fentanyl precursors and analogues could apply for state tax rebates and other financial benefits after exporting the product.

Quote
An NPR investigation in 2020 found a web of Chinese companies whose employees were openly marketing fentanyl precursors and selling them to clients in Mexico and the United States.

However, despite U.S. diplomatic efforts to stem the production of precursors, China has done very little to enforce international and domestic laws banning fentanyl production.

According to the House report released Tuesday, Chinese officials appear to have taken steps to conceal financial incentives linked to fentanyl, but failed to end them.

One of the investigators told reporters it was clear companies were contributing directly to the overdose crisis by leveraging benefits available through China's complex bureaucracy.

"The fact that these [precursor chemicals] are subsidized solely for export is what allows them to go through so cheaply," said the staffer, who spoke on background in order to outline details of the report ahead of a committee hearing today.

Investigators say they found evidence that many of the subsidized companies are marketing their products directly to illicit buyers in Mexico, using crypto-currencies to help conceal transactions.

"Rather than investigating drug traffickers, [Chinese] security services have not cooperated with U.S. law enforcement, and have even notified targets of U.S. investigations when they received requests for assistance," said the report.
https://www.npr.org/2024/04/16/1244964595/fentanyl-china-precursor-overdose

deborah

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #512 on: April 09, 2025, 11:47:00 AM »
The tariffs are back to 10% rather than being off.

dividendman

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #513 on: April 09, 2025, 11:47:10 AM »
Which means that the AI systems won't be built *** by US ***.  China will have no issues building them.

Yep.  Looks like Trump is ushering in the new era of Chinese world dominance/supremacy.  It'll be interesting to see how America reacts as it realizes that it's long term status is dipping to become a second class nation.

Apparently the derogatory term the Chinese use for Trump is 'the nation builder', as in 'His attacks on the world are causing other nations to unite'.

I also don't see how this can end well.  The Chinese are proud.  I can't imagine that they'll appreciate being called peasants by Vance.  And they have deep dark memories that make them allergic to a foreign power threatening them to buy goods.  See also the Opium Wars.

Isn't peasant a compliment for them? Didn't Mao found the country on them all being peasants? "All power to the peasants!" etc? why are they insulted by this?

Travis

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #514 on: April 09, 2025, 12:16:29 PM »

deborah

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #515 on: April 09, 2025, 12:57:47 PM »
90 day pause is on

Except China, now 125%

"This was always the plan."

Trump just spent $15 trillion to get people to attend a meeting.

https://fixupx.com/rapidresponse47/status/1910026858420183285

https://x.com/thestalwart/status/1910025614020522051

https://x.com/kathrynw5/status/1910027170933600642

The 90 day pause is not a pause. It’s still at least 10% on everyone. Even if you have a free trade agreement. 10% is not 0%.

neo von retorch

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #516 on: April 09, 2025, 01:00:54 PM »
The 90 day pause is not a pause. It’s still at least 10% on everyone. Even if you have a free trade agreement. 10% is not 0%.

Thank you. I could not that parse that shit sandwich of a statement, and, at least at the time, articles I was reading were not clear on that.

Travis

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #517 on: April 09, 2025, 01:10:22 PM »
90 day pause is on

Except China, now 125%

"This was always the plan."

Trump just spent $15 trillion to get people to attend a meeting.

https://fixupx.com/rapidresponse47/status/1910026858420183285

https://x.com/thestalwart/status/1910025614020522051

https://x.com/kathrynw5/status/1910027170933600642

The 90 day pause is not a pause. It’s still at least 10% on everyone. Even if you have a free trade agreement. 10% is not 0%.

10% baseline in addition to the steel and auto tariffs. Those are still in effect.

Trump more or less admitting in this presser that the bond market nearly imploding last night got him to back off. Of course, Bessent has been spinning this for the last hour as "all part of the plan."

« Last Edit: April 09, 2025, 01:28:59 PM by Travis »

bacchi

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #518 on: April 09, 2025, 01:32:51 PM »
I bet even US Customs isn't sure what should be tariffed and at what level.

sixwings

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #519 on: April 09, 2025, 02:16:01 PM »
Trump tweeted that people should stocks a couple of hours before he announced he was lifting tariffs. just some very legal and very cool insider trading that republicans, as the law and order party, are totally cool with.

The US is completely uninvestable under Trump.

mtnrider

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #520 on: April 09, 2025, 02:19:05 PM »
Which means that the AI systems won't be built *** by US ***.  China will have no issues building them.

Yep.  Looks like Trump is ushering in the new era of Chinese world dominance/supremacy.  It'll be interesting to see how America reacts as it realizes that it's long term status is dipping to become a second class nation.

Apparently the derogatory term the Chinese use for Trump is 'the nation builder', as in 'His attacks on the world are causing other nations to unite'.

I also don't see how this can end well.  The Chinese are proud.  I can't imagine that they'll appreciate being called peasants by Vance.  And they have deep dark memories that make them allergic to a foreign power threatening them to buy goods.  See also the Opium Wars.

Ironically, China is the source of an awful lot of the fentanyl used in the US given that they not only sell, but also subsidize the raw materials used to manufacture it.

Hm... using this comparison around someone with Chinese heritage might get you an earful.  China isn't forcing the US to sell fentanyl in the US, it's organized crime gangs supplying it.  When fentanyl was originally sent from China, it was the work of the Triad, not the government.  It's still a problem, but they see it very differently.  As you probably know, the penalty for illegal drug sales in China can be, and often is, death.  My understanding is that even smuggling the raw materials (which, I'm told, have some legitimate uses) to Mexico is only done by the Triad due to this.  Organized crime gangs also distribute the stuff here, so it's crime syndicates all the way through.

All that's an aside though, my point is that a trade war strikes a nerve.  The US is threatening China, complaining about a trade imbalance, and they have memories from the British doing that.

My wife is Chinese (her family fled back when the communists took over).  I did get an earful from her about it - but not the way you seem to envision it.  She strongly believes that this is a way for China to attack westerners in retaliation for the Opium Wars.  It's not entirely crime syndicates, it's also directly influenced by China's current government.  But don't take our word for it.

Quote
Investigators for a U.S. House committee released a report on Tuesday detailing what they describe as new evidence the Chinese government is continuing to "directly" subsidize "the manufacturing and export of illicit fentanyl."

According to the report, Chinese officials encourage production of precursor chemicals by giving "monetary grants and awards to companies openly trafficking illicit fentanyl materials."

Specifically, researchers found companies making fentanyl precursors and analogues could apply for state tax rebates and other financial benefits after exporting the product.

Quote
An NPR investigation in 2020 found a web of Chinese companies whose employees were openly marketing fentanyl precursors and selling them to clients in Mexico and the United States.

However, despite U.S. diplomatic efforts to stem the production of precursors, China has done very little to enforce international and domestic laws banning fentanyl production.

According to the House report released Tuesday, Chinese officials appear to have taken steps to conceal financial incentives linked to fentanyl, but failed to end them.

One of the investigators told reporters it was clear companies were contributing directly to the overdose crisis by leveraging benefits available through China's complex bureaucracy.

"The fact that these [precursor chemicals] are subsidized solely for export is what allows them to go through so cheaply," said the staffer, who spoke on background in order to outline details of the report ahead of a committee hearing today.

Investigators say they found evidence that many of the subsidized companies are marketing their products directly to illicit buyers in Mexico, using crypto-currencies to help conceal transactions.

"Rather than investigating drug traffickers, [Chinese] security services have not cooperated with U.S. law enforcement, and have even notified targets of U.S. investigations when they received requests for assistance," said the report.
https://www.npr.org/2024/04/16/1244964595/fentanyl-china-precursor-overdose

Yeah, my colleagues were young during the cultural revolution and they reacted as if I had kicked them when I made the same analogy.  These are not people who carry water for the CCP.  Anyway, what your wife says fits with their sentiment - they have a cultural bad memory of the gunboats forcing them to sell opium.  That can be exploited in different ways.

You're right.  I learned a thing today.  Thanks!  According to that NPR reporting, the Chinese government is not stopping it and may well have tax subsidies.  I do wonder if there's some nuance?  Is it the federal government offering tax breaks, or the local government?   As they say, the mountains are high and the emperor is far away.  It does seem like they are using it as a chit in trade negotiations though, so maybe the emperor is strategically looking the other way.  (https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-fentanyl-pipeline-and-chinas-role-in-the-us-opioid-crisis/)

And... I found that fentanyl was sold over facebook???  Crazy.  (https://www.npr.org/2020/11/17/916890880/we-are-shipping-to-the-u-s-china-s-fentanyl-sellers-find-new-routes-to-drug-user)

The cultural part though, still is what it is.  They have bad memories of being forced to buy things.  If Xi tells the Chinese people that he's sticking up for them so China won't be forced to buy from the US, I'd bet they'll "take the medicine" more readily.

 



mtnrider

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #521 on: April 09, 2025, 02:24:24 PM »
90 day pause is on

Except China, now 125%

"This was always the plan."

Trump just spent $15 trillion to get people to attend a meeting.

https://fixupx.com/rapidresponse47/status/1910026858420183285

https://x.com/thestalwart/status/1910025614020522051

https://x.com/kathrynw5/status/1910027170933600642

The 90 day pause is not a pause. It’s still at least 10% on everyone. Even if you have a free trade agreement. 10% is not 0%.

10% baseline in addition to the steel and auto tariffs. Those are still in effect.

Trump more or less admitting in this presser that the bond market nearly imploding last night got him to back off. Of course, Bessent has been spinning this for the last hour as "all part of the plan."

I'm getting whiplash from the clap on, clap off tariffs.  And motion sickness from the rollercoaster stock market.  And eye strain from having to read the 10% fine print.  And dizziness from the administration's spin. 

Travis

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #522 on: April 09, 2025, 02:59:12 PM »
The House is going to vote today on whether or not to lock themselves out of turning off the tariffs until September.

https://x.com/jakesherman/status/1909996860850192543

All but three in the House GOP voted to not touch tariff authority.

https://x.com/Fritschner/status/1910065268421697933

Freedomin5

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #523 on: April 09, 2025, 03:26:12 PM »
Which means that the AI systems won't be built *** by US ***.  China will have no issues building them.

Yep.  Looks like Trump is ushering in the new era of Chinese world dominance/supremacy.  It'll be interesting to see how America reacts as it realizes that it's long term status is dipping to become a second class nation.

Apparently the derogatory term the Chinese use for Trump is 'the nation builder', as in 'His attacks on the world are causing other nations to unite'.

I also don't see how this can end well.  The Chinese are proud.  I can't imagine that they'll appreciate being called peasants by Vance.  And they have deep dark memories that make them allergic to a foreign power threatening them to buy goods.  See also the Opium Wars.

Isn't peasant a compliment for them? Didn't Mao found the country on them all being peasants? "All power to the peasants!" etc? why are they insulted by this?

I live in China and have lived in China for 14 years. If you ever make that statement here, you’re going to offend everyone around you and label yourself as an ignorant American if you can’t figure out that China has grown and developed in leaps and bounds over the past 70 years. Please don’t make statements like these; your president is already doing a good job making the US look bad.

China’s not about everyone being peasants. It’s about prosperity and harmony for all, but it’s also about building China up to be self-sufficient and a world superpower. There has been a huge push and massive investment in bleeding edge technologies over the past several years. The Chinese are proud, and “face” and “tact” are important concepts. JD Vance’s statement was insulting and definitely lacked tact and political diplomacy.

China has now put an 84% tariff on US imports and banned a few U.S. companies from purchasing certain rare metals necessary for electronics and military applications, in response to the 104% 125% tariff the US put on China.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2025, 04:24:07 PM by Freedomin5 »

Boll weevil

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #524 on: April 09, 2025, 03:26:56 PM »

I'm getting whiplash from the clap on, clap off tariffs.  And motion sickness from the rollercoaster stock market.  And eye strain from having to read the 10% fine print.  And dizziness from the administration's spin.

You turn the tariffs on,
You turn the tariffs off,
You turn the tariffs on and you shake them all about.
You do the hokey-pokey and you turn yourself around…
That’s what it’s all about!

scottish

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #525 on: April 09, 2025, 03:31:37 PM »
Which means that the AI systems won't be built *** by US ***.  China will have no issues building them.

Yep.  Looks like Trump is ushering in the new era of Chinese world dominance/supremacy.  It'll be interesting to see how America reacts as it realizes that it's long term status is dipping to become a second class nation.

Apparently the derogatory term the Chinese use for Trump is 'the nation builder', as in 'His attacks on the world are causing other nations to unite'.

I also don't see how this can end well.  The Chinese are proud.  I can't imagine that they'll appreciate being called peasants by Vance.  And they have deep dark memories that make them allergic to a foreign power threatening them to buy goods.  See also the Opium Wars.

Isn't peasant a compliment for them? Didn't Mao found the country on them all being peasants? "All power to the peasants!" etc? why are they insulted by this?

Only bunch of peasants with a national high speed rail network.    Just sayin...   maybe Vance should look in the mirror before calling other people names.

Freedomin5

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #526 on: April 09, 2025, 03:42:10 PM »
Which means that the AI systems won't be built *** by US ***.  China will have no issues building them.

Yep.  Looks like Trump is ushering in the new era of Chinese world dominance/supremacy.  It'll be interesting to see how America reacts as it realizes that it's long term status is dipping to become a second class nation.

Apparently the derogatory term the Chinese use for Trump is 'the nation builder', as in 'His attacks on the world are causing other nations to unite'.

I also don't see how this can end well.  The Chinese are proud.  I can't imagine that they'll appreciate being called peasants by Vance.  And they have deep dark memories that make them allergic to a foreign power threatening them to buy goods.  See also the Opium Wars.

Isn't peasant a compliment for them? Didn't Mao found the country on them all being peasants? "All power to the peasants!" etc? why are they insulted by this?

Only bunch of peasants with a national high speed rail network.    Just sayin...   maybe Vance should look in the mirror before calling other people names.

Not only a high speed rail (I rode the bullet train last week from Beijing to Shanghai and which was glorious), but also some of the most advanced subway systems in the world (just take a look at the Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong subway maps), one of the best online shopping platforms (Taobao), and a cash-free payment system that I am going to miss when I repatriate later this year (Alipay and WeChat Pay). They have also been growing their EV market like crazy, and probably a whole lot of other sectors that I know nothing about.

Their major cities are also some of the safest in the world. And drug use is near zero - probably because it’s super illegal to use drugs here. And there’s basically no gun violence - probably because it’s super illegal to own guns here.

Zamboni

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #527 on: April 09, 2025, 03:53:27 PM »

I'm getting whiplash from the clap on, clap off tariffs.  And motion sickness from the rollercoaster stock market.  And eye strain from having to read the 10% fine print.  And dizziness from the administration's spin.

You turn the tariffs on,
You turn the tariffs off,
You turn the tariffs on and you shake them all about.
You do the hokey-pokey and you turn yourself around…
That’s what it’s all about!

Bravo!

Fru-Gal

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #528 on: April 09, 2025, 08:05:12 PM »
So the analysis I’m reading is that it was the T-bills suddenly looking weak/undependable (due to all the tariffs plus the Putin-loving and the idiocy) today that caused Trump to pause the global tariff hike to 10%.

It’s always said that China holds a ton of US debt. I’m reading that last night/today China sold a lot of it. True?
« Last Edit: April 09, 2025, 08:14:33 PM by Fru-Gal »

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #529 on: April 09, 2025, 08:19:21 PM »
So the analysis I’m reading is that it was the T-bills suddenly looking weak/undependable (due to all the tariffs plus the Putin-loving and the idiocy) today that caused Trump to pause the global tariff hike to 10%.

It’s always said that China holds a ton of US debt. I’m reading that last night/today China sold a lot of it. True?

China has a lot, but not even the most.  And, foreign holders hold a minority.

It seems unlikely they could, unilaterally, move the market.  China's holdings topped out in 2014.

NorCal

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #530 on: April 09, 2025, 08:27:39 PM »
So the analysis I’m reading is that it was the T-bills suddenly looking weak/undependable (due to all the tariffs plus the Putin-loving and the idiocy) today that caused Trump to pause the global tariff hike to 10%.

It’s always said that China holds a ton of US debt. I’m reading that last night/today China sold a lot of it. True?

China has a lot, but not even the most.  And, foreign holders hold a minority.

It seems unlikely they could, unilaterally, move the market.  China's holdings topped out in 2014.


Everyone is overthinking this. Trump has a well worn strategy.

He picks a target and adds more crazy each day. He gets the media and social media in a frenzy and rage. He keeps adding crazy until the point there are real consequences. Then he backs off a little bit and claims a major win.

I doubt Trump even understands the treasury market, much less reacted to rate changes. He just saw that he was on the verge of real blowback and chose that as a moment to pause.

He’ll pivot to a new topic next week. What will it be this time?  Iran, drugs, immigration? 

We’ll have about three weeks of media frenzy over whatever topic he decides is next.


Fru-Gal

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #531 on: April 09, 2025, 09:22:20 PM »
So the analysis I’m reading is that it was the T-bills suddenly looking weak/undependable (due to all the tariffs plus the Putin-loving and the idiocy) today that caused Trump to pause the global tariff hike to 10%.

It’s always said that China holds a ton of US debt. I’m reading that last night/today China sold a lot of it. True?

China has a lot, but not even the most.  And, foreign holders hold a minority.

It seems unlikely they could, unilaterally, move the market.  China's holdings topped out in 2014.


Everyone is overthinking this. Trump has a well worn strategy.

He picks a target and adds more crazy each day. He gets the media and social media in a frenzy and rage. He keeps adding crazy until the point there are real consequences. Then he backs off a little bit and claims a major win.

I doubt Trump even understands the treasury market, much less reacted to rate changes. He just saw that he was on the verge of real blowback and chose that as a moment to pause.

He’ll pivot to a new topic next week. What will it be this time?  Iran, drugs, immigration? 

We’ll have about three weeks of media frenzy over whatever topic he decides is next.

I agree, but also the mechanics of what he’s breaking, in real time, are interesting…

I don’t think Trump had any clue, but Bessent was all over the news today downplaying US bonds volatility as normal. Perhaps in private he was using more colorful language.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250409221/treasury-secretary-bessent-expects-bond-market-will-calm-down-suggests-spike-in-yields-is-normal-trading
« Last Edit: April 09, 2025, 09:25:36 PM by Fru-Gal »

NorCal

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #532 on: April 09, 2025, 09:38:33 PM »
So the analysis I’m reading is that it was the T-bills suddenly looking weak/undependable (due to all the tariffs plus the Putin-loving and the idiocy) today that caused Trump to pause the global tariff hike to 10%.

It’s always said that China holds a ton of US debt. I’m reading that last night/today China sold a lot of it. True?

China has a lot, but not even the most.  And, foreign holders hold a minority.

It seems unlikely they could, unilaterally, move the market.  China's holdings topped out in 2014.


Everyone is overthinking this. Trump has a well worn strategy.

He picks a target and adds more crazy each day. He gets the media and social media in a frenzy and rage. He keeps adding crazy until the point there are real consequences. Then he backs off a little bit and claims a major win.

I doubt Trump even understands the treasury market, much less reacted to rate changes. He just saw that he was on the verge of real blowback and chose that as a moment to pause.

He’ll pivot to a new topic next week. What will it be this time?  Iran, drugs, immigration? 

We’ll have about three weeks of media frenzy over whatever topic he decides is next.

I agree, but also the mechanics of what he’s breaking, in real time, are interesting…

I don’t think Trump had any clue, but Bessent was all over the news today downplaying US bonds volatility as normal. Perhaps in private he was using more colorful language.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250409221/treasury-secretary-bessent-expects-bond-market-will-calm-down-suggests-spike-in-yields-is-normal-trading

Oh, it's very interesting.  It's just not part of any grand strategy or anything coordinated.  Even among themselves.

One of the most interesting parts of the last few weeks is how much credibility all of the cabinet members lost.  They'd talk to one source or another and say the words that were expected of them.  But putting them all together came up with completely non-nonsensical and contradictory explanations for what was going on.  Trump did the complete opposite of what his cabinet members were saying to the public on several occasions.

For the next four years we'll be second guessing whether the Secretary of Treasury even knows what Trump plans to do, or whether his words resemble desired policy or just what Foxnews wants to hear that day.

This will be a dangerous dynamic in a real crisis.

Herbert Derp

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #533 on: April 10, 2025, 02:44:30 AM »
I'm getting whiplash from the clap on, clap off tariffs.  And motion sickness from the rollercoaster stock market.  And eye strain from having to read the 10% fine print.  And dizziness from the administration's spin.

Bwahahaha, so I’m not the only one who thought of this:
https://youtu.be/sRWtFVFSx5I

This whole day I’ve been picturing Trump as some old grandpa in a nursing home playing with his new tariff clapper 😂

rocketpj

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #534 on: April 10, 2025, 08:39:47 AM »
Someone with a massive ego has a toy that lets him create or destroy trillions of dollars with the click of a button.  Every time he clicks the button the whole world flips over, panics, yells.  What a rush!  Meanwhile we have to assume that some people close to him are making an absolute killing buying and selling with advance information.  How is Jared Kushner's hedge fund doing right now - remember, the one the Saudis gave him billions to operate for some reason a few years ago?

He is going to keep clicking it until one of his billionaire enablers pushed him out of a window (metaphorically, I assume).

sixwings

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #535 on: April 10, 2025, 09:53:50 AM »
145% on china now lol. It prob doesn't matter, anything over 50% is likely the equivalent of a trade embargo.

Travis

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #536 on: April 10, 2025, 10:55:20 AM »
It wasn't market manipulation. We were just sharing our plans with an interested third party and did what he wanted us to do. It's totally fine.

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1910322755985146258

rocketpj

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #537 on: April 10, 2025, 11:33:19 AM »
https://www.crisesnotes.com/our2025lehmanbrothers/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

"What is clear is that until there is a fundamental resolution to this situation, volatility will stay extremely high. With volatility extremely high, the global financial system will continue trading on every piece of Trump news. Hence the 15 minutes on Monday where the stock market rallied and went up, in aggregate, 2.5 Trillion dollars based on a random twitter account’s tweet reporting false claims about a change in Trump’s approach to tariffs. Once the “conventional wisdom” among stock market traders and this was judged to be false, those 2.5 Trillion dollars evaporated. The stock market is trading in an erratic “hyper-fundamentals” fashion where the only fundamentals that matter are the current state of Trump’s “thinking”.


"In 2008, and again in 2020, “Swap Lines” (think “lines of credit") with other central banks has been critical to stabilizing global financial markets. This time is different. Why would Trump want to cut off the rest of the world until they end their trade deficits with the United States, as well as cut off foreign aid, but be okay with Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve lending trillions of dollars to foreign central banks?"

Expect a global market crash.  It may already be baked in - Hedge funds and banks are liquidating, the recent rally is just a chance for some of them to liquidate at a better price.  When someone inevitably defaults the cards will collapse.  And Trump's circle lacks the intellectual capacity or worldview to resolve it.




sixwings

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #538 on: April 10, 2025, 01:00:49 PM »
https://www.crisesnotes.com/our2025lehmanbrothers/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

"What is clear is that until there is a fundamental resolution to this situation, volatility will stay extremely high. With volatility extremely high, the global financial system will continue trading on every piece of Trump news. Hence the 15 minutes on Monday where the stock market rallied and went up, in aggregate, 2.5 Trillion dollars based on a random twitter account’s tweet reporting false claims about a change in Trump’s approach to tariffs. Once the “conventional wisdom” among stock market traders and this was judged to be false, those 2.5 Trillion dollars evaporated. The stock market is trading in an erratic “hyper-fundamentals” fashion where the only fundamentals that matter are the current state of Trump’s “thinking”.


"In 2008, and again in 2020, “Swap Lines” (think “lines of credit") with other central banks has been critical to stabilizing global financial markets. This time is different. Why would Trump want to cut off the rest of the world until they end their trade deficits with the United States, as well as cut off foreign aid, but be okay with Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve lending trillions of dollars to foreign central banks?"

Expect a global market crash.  It may already be baked in - Hedge funds and banks are liquidating, the recent rally is just a chance for some of them to liquidate at a better price.  When someone inevitably defaults the cards will collapse.  And Trump's circle lacks the intellectual capacity or worldview to resolve it.

Yes your last sentence there is critical. This pullback on tariffs is just again revealing that there's no broad plan behind all of this. It's just impulsive decision making by a demented old man, that's it. There's no plan to reduce rates to renegotiate debts, no ones trying to crash the market to buy everything up cheap, it's just purely a demented old man doing stupid things that he doesn't understand, and is totally fine with complete and blatent corruption and disregard for finance laws. And the problem is that the second there's an actual crisis that isn't manufactured the administration completely lacks the capability to manage and deal with it. In a 4 year term there will certainly be a crisis of some kind and the lack of intellectual capacity or world view to resolve is far, far worse than someone behind the scenes with an actual coherent plan. The complete collapse of the US finance legal landscape is probably even worse.

I honestly don't think that the collapse of the US during such a crisis is out of the question after the administration has shown how completely and utterly stupid they are. 

mtnrider

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #539 on: April 10, 2025, 01:30:20 PM »
https://www.crisesnotes.com/our2025lehmanbrothers/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

"What is clear is that until there is a fundamental resolution to this situation, volatility will stay extremely high. With volatility extremely high, the global financial system will continue trading on every piece of Trump news. Hence the 15 minutes on Monday where the stock market rallied and went up, in aggregate, 2.5 Trillion dollars based on a random twitter account’s tweet reporting false claims about a change in Trump’s approach to tariffs. Once the “conventional wisdom” among stock market traders and this was judged to be false, those 2.5 Trillion dollars evaporated. The stock market is trading in an erratic “hyper-fundamentals” fashion where the only fundamentals that matter are the current state of Trump’s “thinking”.


"In 2008, and again in 2020, “Swap Lines” (think “lines of credit") with other central banks has been critical to stabilizing global financial markets. This time is different. Why would Trump want to cut off the rest of the world until they end their trade deficits with the United States, as well as cut off foreign aid, but be okay with Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve lending trillions of dollars to foreign central banks?"

Expect a global market crash.  It may already be baked in - Hedge funds and banks are liquidating, the recent rally is just a chance for some of them to liquidate at a better price.  When someone inevitably defaults the cards will collapse.  And Trump's circle lacks the intellectual capacity or worldview to resolve it.

Yes.  When I saw the bond market in the morning I got deja vu and started wondering if
 1) we'd see another Lehman Brothers type default
 2) there was anyone in the administration as competent as Paulson (2008 financial crisis) to coordinate a response.

I feel like I'm watching someone fish using dynamite, but they don't quite know how short the fuse is.

mtnrider

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #540 on: April 10, 2025, 01:39:45 PM »
It wasn't market manipulation. We were just sharing our plans with an interested third party and did what he wanted us to do. It's totally fine.

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1910322755985146258

The graph of the S&P call increases is crazy!  It certainly is suspicious.

https://xcancel.com/unusual_whales/status/1910033260975165836#m
https://xcancel.com/sji2783/status/1910323847615701359#m


Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #541 on: April 10, 2025, 02:35:50 PM »
Has anyone checked if all this stuff has "fixed" the price of eggs yet?

Christof

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #542 on: April 10, 2025, 03:00:35 PM »
Has anyone checked if all this stuff has "fixed" the price of eggs yet?

Absolutely... The number of eggs sold has increased by 10% (who would have thought), the price per dozen increased by 90% while the cost of feeding went down by 10% (comparing Q1/2025 with Q1/2024):

https://calmainefoods.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cal-maine-foods-reports-financial-and-operational-results-third#

The pricing problem of the Adam's family has been fixed.  Thank you for your consideration!

41_swish

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #543 on: April 10, 2025, 04:01:06 PM »
Eggs are still $5 a dozen for me for generic store brand ones

Tigerpine

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #544 on: April 10, 2025, 04:12:22 PM »

41_swish

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #545 on: April 10, 2025, 05:08:59 PM »
Gosh, I remember even just a few years ago when groceries were still a good deal. Now, I am lucky to walk out of the grocery store and only spend $70 for just me

Rubyvroom

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #546 on: April 10, 2025, 06:54:57 PM »
Just as a heads up, DOGE showed up at the FDIC today. Obviously concerning after witnessing the market manipulation, bond sell off, and dollar weakness this week.

Travis

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #547 on: April 11, 2025, 02:57:19 PM »

mtnrider

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #548 on: April 12, 2025, 08:18:25 AM »

Electronics tariffs partially off again.

Quote
Trump exempts smartphones, chips, electronics from tariffs

The exclusions narrow the scope of the levies by excluding the products from Trump’s 125 per cent China tariff and his 10 per cent global tariff

President Donald Trump’s administration exempted smartphones, computers and other electronics from its so-called reciprocal tariffs, potentially cushioning consumers from sticker shock while benefiting electronics giants including Apple Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co.

The exclusions, published late on Friday by US Customs and Border Protection, narrow the scope of the levies by excluding the products from Trump’s 125 per cent China tariff and his baseline 10 per cent global tariff on nearly all other countries.



https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3306300/trump-exempts-computer-chips-electronics-tariffs?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage

Travis

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Re: Tariff Insanity
« Reply #549 on: April 12, 2025, 10:28:46 AM »
Import Chinese battery: 145% tariff
Import Chinese battery inside Chinese laptop: 20% tariff
Import Chinese battery inside Vietnamese laptop: 10% tariff