Tariff Insanity

[GuitarStv]

Even if DOGE would actually halve the US budget it would not be enough

The numbers aren't in fully yet, but it seems likely that in the long run the DOGE cuts will end up costing at least as much as they save.  (You have the losses that will be incurred by the IRS cuts, the multiple lawsuits that the government will lose regarding failure to adhere to their side of the employment contracts, the lawsuits that will be lost regarding the illegal closures and failure to disburse money that the government was legally required to pay out, the costs associated with the massive security vulnerabilities and data loss that Musk's team has caused, etc.)   That's what happens when you hire an idiot to do a job he's utterly unqualified for, making decisions based upon political whim, ketamine dreams, AI generated guesses, and the decision making of 21 year old programmers . . . rather than actual data or recommendations of seasoned people who have worked in the field for decades.

You actually make it sound like a lot of consulting engagements...

The good news is, in return for getting nothing or close to it, tens of thousands of hard working public servants lost their jobs and the public loses significant benefits that were once available.

[neo von retorch]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cpvrrre4zlkt

A battle is brewing as Amazon announces they'll display the cost of Tariffs, and the White House gets mad about it.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/apr/29/hsbc-trade-war-bad-debts-trump-automotive-tariffs-stock-markets-business-live-news

An update claims Amazon's sub-division, Amazon Haul, is the one "considering" this move, but they don't plan to implement it on their main site.

[Travis]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cpvrrre4zlkt

A battle is brewing as Amazon announces they'll display the cost of Tariffs, and the White House gets mad about it.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/apr/29/hsbc-trade-war-bad-debts-trump-automotive-tariffs-stock-markets-business-live-news

An update claims Amazon's sub-division, Amazon Haul, is the one "considering" this move, but they don't plan to implement it on their main site.

And Trump called Bezos directly to complain about it.

[Fru-Gal]

You can buy all the medication that you want in Mexico. Which is what people have done for decades, especially before the ACA.

[ChpBstrd]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cpvrrre4zlkt

A battle is brewing as Amazon announces they'll display the cost of Tariffs, and the White House gets mad about it.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/apr/29/hsbc-trade-war-bad-debts-trump-automotive-tariffs-stock-markets-business-live-news

An update claims Amazon's sub-division, Amazon Haul, is the one "considering" this move, but they don't plan to implement it on their main site.

And Trump called Bezos directly to complain about it.

One of the wildcards on my list is whether Trump institutes price controls / anti-gouging rules in an attempt to keep his tariffs from fueling inflation. This reaction to a rumor is a clue that he might take the path Nixon took.

[Travis]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cpvrrre4zlkt

A battle is brewing as Amazon announces they'll display the cost of Tariffs, and the White House gets mad about it.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/apr/29/hsbc-trade-war-bad-debts-trump-automotive-tariffs-stock-markets-business-live-news

An update claims Amazon's sub-division, Amazon Haul, is the one "considering" this move, but they don't plan to implement it on their main site.

And Trump called Bezos directly to complain about it.

One of the wildcards on my list is whether Trump institutes price controls / anti-gouging rules in an attempt to keep his tariffs from fueling inflation. This reaction to a rumor is a clue that he might take the path Nixon took.

Probably threaten arrests/lawsuits first.

[Travis]

Lutnick's fantasy end result of all of this is Americans working generationally in the same factory for the rest of their lives.

https://fixupx.com/atrupar/status/1917275438319129082

[Cassie]

Regarding OTC med expiration dates, I take those with a grain of salt.  I recently started using Kirkland generic loratadine, and it's helping enormously with my seasonal itchy eyes.  The meds allegedly expired in 2007.

There never used to be expiration dates on drugs until the FDA decided to do it. They have found drugs in a time capsule for 50 years that still had half of their effectiveness left. There are a few drugs that become harmful over time so I always google first before taking an expired drug.

[Travis]

Trump removing stackability on his auto and aluminum tariffs.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-certain-tariffs-on-imported-articles/

[Zamboni]

You can buy all the medication that you want in Mexico. Which is what people have done for decades, especially before the ACA.

Yes, my grandma did that. But not everyone can afford to hop down to Mexico to buy their medication, and the border is not quite as easy to get through as it used to be.

[dragoncar]

You can buy all the medication that you want in Mexico. Which is what people have done for decades, especially before the ACA.

Yes, my grandma did that. But not everyone can afford to hop down to Mexico to buy their medication, and the border is not quite as easy to get through as it used to be.

Honestly seems like an easy way to get a free trip to El Salvador

[Fru-Gal]

You can buy all the medication that you want in Mexico. Which is what people have done for decades, especially before the ACA.

Yes, my grandma did that. But not everyone can afford to hop down to Mexico to buy their medication, and the border is not quite as easy to get through as it used to be.

Used to be 90-day supply was fine. Looks like maybe it’s been changed to 30-day supply. Here’s a list. There are some items that are controlled/require prescription, like dick pills.

https://www.ice.gov/doclib/about/offices/ihsc/pdf/medicationFormularyCBP.pdf

[rantk81]

Used to be 90-day supply was fine. Looks like maybe it’s been changed to 30-day supply. Here’s a list. There are some items that are controlled/require prescription, like dick pills.
https://www.ice.gov/doclib/about/offices/ihsc/pdf/medicationFormularyCBP.pdf

I'm a little confused.
Is that PDF a list of medications that, when needed, can be provided to people being detained by ICE?  Or does it have something to do with what people are allowed to travel across the border with?  Or the formulary of the benefits package for ICE officers?

[reeshau]

Used to be 90-day supply was fine. Looks like maybe it’s been changed to 30-day supply. Here’s a list. There are some items that are controlled/require prescription, like dick pills.
https://www.ice.gov/doclib/about/offices/ihsc/pdf/medicationFormularyCBP.pdf

I'm a little confused.
Is that PDF a list of medications that, when needed, can be provided to people being detained by ICE?  Or does it have something to do with what people are allowed to travel across the border with?  Or the formulary of the benefits package for ICE officers?

It's the formulary for detainees..  Besides saying formulary, IHSC (in the URL) is ICE Health Service Corps.

IHSC, a component within ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO), is the only entity within ICE responsible for assessing alien’s fitness for travel as they prepare for deportation to their country of origin. IHSC oversees compliance with medical detention standards in contracted facilities and reimburses for off-site medical intervention received by aliens in ICE custody. IHSC supports ICE air operations for deportation flights and the U.S. Coast Guard with alien interdiction operations.

[Travis]

Tariff hawk Pete Navarro explaining how if you take the tariffs out of the equation, the economy is doing quite well, and this is why we need more tariffs.

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lnzwqewxju2r

Meanwhile, the director of the port of Los Angeles says retailers have about two months of inventory from China remaining.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/port-l-executive-director-says-160712909.html

[Fru-Gal]

Used to be 90-day supply was fine. Looks like maybe it’s been changed to 30-day supply. Here’s a list. There are some items that are controlled/require prescription, like dick pills.
https://www.ice.gov/doclib/about/offices/ihsc/pdf/medicationFormularyCBP.pdf

I'm a little confused.
Is that PDF a list of medications that, when needed, can be provided to people being detained by ICE?  Or does it have something to do with what people are allowed to travel across the border with?  Or the formulary of the benefits package for ICE officers?

It's the formulary for detainees..  Besides saying formulary, IHSC (in the URL) is ICE Health Service Corps.

IHSC, a component within ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO), is the only entity within ICE responsible for assessing alien’s fitness for travel as they prepare for deportation to their country of origin. IHSC oversees compliance with medical detention standards in contracted facilities and reimburses for off-site medical intervention received by aliens in ICE custody. IHSC supports ICE air operations for deportation flights and the U.S. Coast Guard with alien interdiction operations.

Oh, well then this says you can have a 90-day supply of any drugs that are not controlled substances (psychoactive, etc). https://www.verywellhealth.com/prescription-drugs-from-mexico-2966765

[Zamboni]

So the take home message is I can go spend $60 now to buy a year's supply of my allergy medicine, ibuprophen, and other OTC meds at the Costco that is 5 min away from me now. Pills are small . . . it's not like they won't fit in my closet. Or, I can roll the dice that in a couple of months local stores are still stocked for when I run out and need them with a back up plan that I just will fly to Mexico to get more if the local supply runs out. Got it.

[Fru-Gal]

So the take home message is I can go spend $60 now to buy a year's supply of my allergy medicine, ibuprophen, and other OTC meds at the Costco that is 5 min away from me now. Pills are small . . . it's not like they won't fit in my closet. Or, I can roll the dice that in a couple of months local stores are still stocked for when I run out and need them with a back up plan that I just will fly to Mexico to get more if the local supply runs out. Got it.

Personally I just hop in my private jet whenever I meet with my Mexican plastic surgeon, and then pick up some extra months’ worth of meds for the jaunt back home.

[Christof]

Personally I just hop in my private jet whenever I meet with my Mexican plastic surgeon, and then pick up some extra months’ worth of meds for the jaunt back home.

As a Mustachian I obviously use the jet sharing service from Warren Buffet’s NetJets. Owning your own jet is a waste of money.

[sonofsven]

Personally I just hop in my private jet whenever I meet with my Mexican plastic surgeon, and then pick up some extra months’ worth of meds for the jaunt back home.

As a Mustachian I obviously use the jet sharing service from Warren Buffet’s NetJets. Owning your own jet is a waste of money.

Oh sure, Big Spender! I'll stick with my Chevy Molt, a perfectly serviceable flying car (for eleven months of the year). Just don't try it during molting season.

[Sailor Sam]

Oh hey, I've got a PSA that fits in here!

I freaked right out when the Make America Healthy Again EO was promulgated, particulatly due to this part:

(iii)   assess the prevalence of and threat posed by the prescription of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, antipsychotics, mood stabilizers, stimulants, and weight-loss drugs


The larger section that part iii is under theoretically only applies to children, but it isn't hard to extrapolate out to psychoactive drugs just being hard to find in general. I need them drugs, boys. So I found a website that will mail a 365 day supply. You do need an active prescription, but the process was pretty painless. I used Jacemedical.com, but I'm pretty sure there is at lease one other company doing something similar.

[Trudie]

I'm definitely starting to tweak my budget for groceries and household necessities. Through combination of bird flu and tariffs, it's to the point where I'm seeking alternatives.

Lean ground turkey, which used to be 4.99 a pound is now 7.49. I'm sourcing and stockpiling meat from local sources. Gonna try to ramp up veg garden production this year too.

I've returned to habits of the accumulation years. Today I actually price compared SOS pads on line. My attempts to boycott big box stores fall flat when it comes to stuff like that, although Costco is always my first stop. I'm going to spend time inventorying provisions and household cleaning supplies and going into serious "use what you have" mode. It's going to get chaotic.

[NorCal]

I'm making a point to keep a slightly healthier supply than normal of Costco bulk import items like olive oil.  I'm operating under the assumption that such things will cost at least 10% more in a few months.

I'm also getting new tires as I'm belatedly taking the snow tires off my car.  My old tires have a couple thousand miles left on them, but it's close enough that it makes more sense to do it now instead of potentially being in a situation where supplies are tight.

[Rubyvroom]

I'm making a point to keep a slightly healthier supply than normal of Costco bulk import items like olive oil.  I'm operating under the assumption that such things will cost at least 10% more in a few months.

Yep, same. We're buying extra dry goods, frozen veggies/fruits, and meats we can freeze. We also switched over to the shelf stable almond milk instead of cow's milk for two reasons - ability to stock up and RFK.

I have no idea what's imported or not and I don't care enough to research it. I'm just being way more diligent in keeping a full pantry for everything. I think once supply chains are disrupted and people start seeing empty shelves there will be panic buying, and the weirdest things we never would have anticipated will be out of stock, and it'll take a while for things to settle down again.

We also stocked up on our cat's litter and food, changed the oil in our car, and reminded people we know who have prescriptions to get those suckers filled sooner than later.

[Travis]

He thinks all we buy from China are Barbie dolls, and thinks international trade is a balance sheet.

https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1919815749360599535

[bacchi]

He thinks all we buy from China are Barbie dolls, and thinks international trade is a balance sheet.

https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1919815749360599535

The SNL skit writes itself.

[reeshau]

He thinks all we buy from China are Barbie dolls, and thinks international trade is a balance sheet.

https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1919815749360599535

...and lots of pencils.

[rocketpj]

Container traffic in LA is down by 35% over last year.  The 'common' economic wisdom is that every 4 containers is a job, so dropping a couple million containers a month...  Probably Biden's fault somehow.

[41_swish]

If anything goes well, Cheeto man did it. If anything goes bad, Sleepy Brandon did it.

[Kris]

If anything goes well, Cheeto man did it. If anything goes bad, Sleepy Brandon did it.

The crazy thing is, Trump literally said exactly this in an interview a few days ago.

[LennStar]

If anything goes well, Cheeto man did it. If anything goes bad, Sleepy Brandon did it.

The crazy thing is, Trump literally said exactly this in an interview a few days ago.

The even more crazy thing is that nobody has any idea if you are lying or not.

[GuitarStv]

If anything goes well, Cheeto man did it. If anything goes bad, Sleepy Brandon did it.

The crazy thing is, Trump literally said exactly this in an interview a few days ago.

The even more crazy thing is that nobody has any idea if you are lying or not.

I think the good parts are the ‘Trump economy’ and the bad parts are the ‘Biden economy’ because he’s done a terrible job

- https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/04/business/trump-economy-tariffs-powell

[Ron Scott]

The sad part of all this is that some people seem to think that lifting tariffs will get the world back to where it was. Not true.

The world order put in place by an admittedly deeply flawed US worked better than what came before it. It literally lifted a billion+ people out of poverty, staved off another WW, opened trade and international competition, and created a positive path for democratic capitalism. Put a fork in all that.

The world economic system is built on trust and when trust is lost for the US (which it is) there’s no one else to pick up the slack. The EU can’t do it and the developed countries don’t trust China. And that’s it.

There will be a reshuffling of trade patterns moving away from the US for safety reasons. That will make it harder for the US to borrow $$ and drive up interest rates. Tariffs are here to stay throughout the world, probably getting worse instead of better, and that’s means inflation will be here for some time. Not pretty.

I don’t see the dollar going out of style in the world but it might. America is gonna get expensive fast.

Also, the whole concept of bringing jobs back is a bit silly. As the production of goods becomes even more automated manufacturing will naturally move closer to the consumer since the cost of human wages won’t be as important a factor in overall cost of production—so manufacturing was coming back anyway, just without the blue collar jobs.

The American Age is probably already over. That might feel good to some internationals who are fed up with Trumpism, but once the reality sinks in and everyone realizes there’s no safety net, that feeling will slip.

This is gonna suck.

[reeshau]

YouTube short: Ronald Reagan on tariffs:

https://youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WBPrVw?si=OaIJ90dgoPpcrynN

I hear he is a Republican.  He's never going to go anywhere, though, because this doesn't sound MAGA enough.

[rocketpj]

The sad part of all this is that some people seem to think that lifting tariffs will get the world back to where it was. Not true.

The world order put in place by an admittedly deeply flawed US worked better than what came before it. It literally lifted a billion+ people out of poverty, staved off another WW, opened trade and international competition, and created a positive path for democratic capitalism. Put a fork in all that.

The world economic system is built on trust and when trust is lost for the US (which it is) there’s no one else to pick up the slack. The EU can’t do it and the developed countries don’t trust China. And that’s it.

There will be a reshuffling of trade patterns moving away from the US for safety reasons. That will make it harder for the US to borrow $$ and drive up interest rates. Tariffs are here to stay throughout the world, probably getting worse instead of better, and that’s means inflation will be here for some time. Not pretty.

I don’t see the dollar going out of style in the world but it might. America is gonna get expensive fast.

Also, the whole concept of bringing jobs back is a bit silly. As the production of goods becomes even more automated manufacturing will naturally move closer to the consumer since the cost of human wages won’t be as important a factor in overall cost of production—so manufacturing was coming back anyway, just without the blue collar jobs.

The American Age is probably already over. That might feel good to some internationals who are fed up with Trumpism, but once the reality sinks in and everyone realizes there’s no safety net, that feeling will slip.

This is gonna suck.

I would add that the Biden Infrastructure and Jobs bill was actually succeeding in boosting US manufacturing and bringing jobs 'back' to the US.  But of course the Magas have been cancelling as much of that as they can find.

This is the week where things start getting scary in the US.  Most of the ships that left China prior to the tariffs have now arrived and have been/are being unloaded.  Many fewer ships are in transit now.  The flow of goods to the US is drying up rapidly.

Can you imagine the howls of outrage if Biden or Obama had said 'maybe kids only need two dolls instead of 30'?

[bacchi]

Can you imagine the howls of outrage if Biden or Obama had said 'maybe kids only need two dolls instead of 30'?

Jimmy Carter (implicitly) told Americans to "put on a sweater" during a natural gas shortage. It didn't go over well.

Nixon suggested something similar ("drive less, heat less") during the oil crisis.

[Telecaster]

In context, those comments were made in times of national crisis.   Trump's comments were made in times of unforced errors.   

[neo von retorch]

Globalization did not hollow out the American middle class
The protectionist narrative is more myth than fact.

This is just one author's interpretation of the statistics. What did he get right and what did he get wrong?

It does kind of jump out, and I think @ChpBstrd has been all over this, that our imports just aren't that huge as a percentage of GDP, and so how much, exactly, does it hurt to have this trade war with China? To invert it, how much of what we buy would not be affected? Obviously the 10% tariff on "all" imports would have a more noticeable impact on triggering some inflation -- how much of what we import is "exempted" though through carveouts? Overall the policy is too unstable, chaotic, and complex to pin down exact numbers, but I'm curious what the real impact will be.

[41_swish]

Globalization has absolutely killed the middle class. The U.S. and Canada feel like feast or famine when it comes to the labor market. You either make $100k working and email job or $14 / hr working retail. There really is no in-between.

[rocketpj]

Globalization has absolutely killed the middle class. The U.S. and Canada feel like feast or famine when it comes to the labor market. You either make $100k working and email job or $14 / hr working retail. There really is no in-between.

Plenty of in-between for various trades, not to mention small business owners. Not that I disagree with your overall point - globalization was designed not to kill the middle class, but to maximize profits for the 1% and it did that very well.

There has to be a middle ground between 'Multinational corporations offshore everything and reduce everyone to paupers' and 'Burn it all down.'

[Stasher]

'Multinational corporations offshore everything and reduce everyone to paupers'

100% my take on things as well, big corps continue to buy up all smaller corps and monopolize markets (especially grocery and telecom in Canada). Then you have the tech oligarchs and the like becoming obscenely wealthy while crusading against even minuscule increases of taxation on them. The middle class is doing somewhat ok but the costs of living from societal choices and urban planning etc with a bit of our failed form of capitalism is exposing its dark underbelly.

[mm1970]

Oh hey, I've got a PSA that fits in here!

I freaked right out when the Make America Healthy Again EO was promulgated, particulatly due to this part:

(iii)   assess the prevalence of and threat posed by the prescription of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, antipsychotics, mood stabilizers, stimulants, and weight-loss drugs


The larger section that part iii is under theoretically only applies to children, but it isn't hard to extrapolate out to psychoactive drugs just being hard to find in general. I need them drugs, boys. So I found a website that will mail a 365 day supply. You do need an active prescription, but the process was pretty painless. I used Jacemedical.com, but I'm pretty sure there is at lease one other company doing something similar.

For real though.  You can pry my SNRI out of my cold, dead, hands.

[reeshau]

Another stat with 1971 as a basis.

I don't think "gone" is the right word for the middle class.  Less, for sure.  And, it has certainly changed.  Much more difficult to get a middle class job out of HS.  You can't just walk in the door--you have to get a skill, whether that is through the trades or college.  And now, college seems to be towards the end of its course, where the payback there isn't what it was.

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/04/20/how-the-american-middle-class-has-changed-in-the-past-five-decades/

[Telecaster]

Globalization has absolutely killed the middle class. The U.S. and Canada feel like feast or famine when it comes to the labor market. You either make $100k working and email job or $14 / hr working retail. There really is no in-between.

Not even remotely true. 

Edit: For example, high school juniors who already have $68,000/year job offers.

https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/skilled-trades-high-school-recruitment-fd9f8257?st=Eyr8bG&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[Telecaster]

Another stat with 1971 as a basis.

I don't think "gone" is the right word for the middle class.  Less, for sure.  And, it has certainly changed.  Much more difficult to get a middle class job out of HS.  You can't just walk in the door--you have to get a skill, whether that is through the trades or college.  And now, college seems to be towards the end of its course, where the payback there isn't what it was.

This has nothing to do with globalization, and it isn't even fully accurate.  True enough, lower income Americans have seen their wealth and income stagnate from the 1970s to present.  But middle income Americans have seen modest but real increases in wealth and income.   And of course, high income Americans have seen their wealth and income go off the charts.

This is due to a bunch of reasons, including tax policy favoring capital gains over wages, union busting, cuts to higher education resulting debt burdens, fast rising healthcare costs, and so on.   These are all public policy issues.   Also true enough, the types of job we do have changed, trending towards services and away from of manufacturing (this is also true in China, by the way).   But most people would rather have service jobs.   So unless you enjoy working in a factory or mine, which most people don't this is a positive trend.   

[reeshau]

Also true enough, the types of job we do have changed, trending towards services and away from of manufacturing (this is also true in China, by the way).   But most people would rather have service jobs.   So unless you enjoy working in a factory or mine, which most people don't this is a positive trend.

I agree,  but I think many people's imagination of "middle class" still includes a lot of blue collars, and the older they are, the more they are.  They imagine it is still like it was when they started.  I saw this even in the 90's, working in a unionized Midwest plant, and seeing people milking the situation, while not even imagining it could stop.  They would sign on their children to the plant, just like their fathers did, and their grandparents before them.  First, jobs went to the non-unionized south; then to Mexico; then to China.

This is the heart of the MAGA message: that what happened can simply be reversed, and what we had was ideal--or, at least more ideal than it was now.

That's hogwash, but it plays to the ignorant world view of a lot of people.

[Ron Scott]

Can you imagine the howls of outrage if Biden or Obama had said 'maybe kids only need two dolls instead of 30'?

Jimmy Carter (implicitly) told Americans to "put on a sweater" during a natural gas shortage. It didn't go over well.

Nixon suggested something similar ("drive less, heat less") during the oil crisis.

In context, those comments were made in times of national crisis.   Trump's comments were made in times of unforced errors.

Maybe its better that it was an asshole that ran over your dog as opposed to your best friend and lover, I don’t know. To me—I’m focusing on the loss of my dog.

[anotherAlias]

I just ordered a year's supply of my prescriptions from Jase Medical.  I was on the fence about trying to stock up my maintenance meds because I would have to pay out of pocket for meds that my insurance would otherwise cover completely.  In the end, I decided potential supply issues from tariffs and general dumbfuckery outweighs paying out of pocket for a backup supply.  Overall the process was easy and the cost wasn't outlandish IMHO.  We'll see how long it takes them to be delivered.  I guess that's one less thing to worry about.

[Travis]

Trump shifting from "145% isn't going anywhere" to "it should be 80%, but I'll leave that up to Bessent" in 48 hours. No negotiations have started with actual Chinese officials yet.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/09/economy/china-tariff-trump-trade

[LennStar]

Trump shifting from "145% isn't going anywhere" to "it should be 80%, but I'll leave that up to Bessent" in 48 hours. No negotiations have started with actual Chinese officials yet.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/09/economy/china-tariff-trump-trade

In standing tall und looking threatening, the Chinese have 3000 years more experience. Not to mention the inherited "we are the center of the world" view (its literally the countries name).
And then is that, while China would have big problems without the US, the US would have nearly nothing without China.