From July 2020 to July 2021, Arizona saw the third most population increase (after Texas and Florida). I suspect many (or most) of those people are from CA. They gained about 100,000 people, and likely more than that if you add the rest of 2021. Now, not all people from CA (or the other states that lost people to migration) are reliably Dem, but it stands to reason many are. (I'd guess that people on the less liberal side are more likely to move to AZ than those hard core liberals, but still....)
I think Arizona matters a lot more than Texas when looking at how migration and deaths can change elections. Trump won Texas by over 600,000 voters, so it would take a *lot* of change to turn Texas blue. But the delta in Arizona was only about 10,000 (in favor of Biden), so an influx of 70,000 Ds and 30,000 Rs (for example) is enough to make a significant difference in the voting pattern of the state, making it more reliably Blue. And if you then add in more Red Covid deaths than blue, those numbers can be even more significant. Suddenly, a veeery close race (10,000 votes) becomes a more comfortable lead of ~60,000-70,000 votes.
Florida went to Trump by about 370,000 votes. That's less than the difference in Texas but still a lot of votes. It is also approximately the same number of people who have moved to Florida n the last year and a half. Even if most of those voters are reliably democratic, it still wouldn't be enough to swing Texas, assuming most people continue to vote the same way and in the same numbers. Now, if a significant number of Florida Covid deaths were Republicans, it might start to get close. So the difference doesn't seem as meaningful as in Arizona, but it does start to make a replica of 2019 into a very tight race. And unlike in AZ, this difference is moving toward the losing side, instead of just increasing the numerical lead.
For me, it is most interesting to look at the numbers for both the migration and the Covid death by party affiliation in the swing states. There aren't great numbers, because even within a red or blue county, we don't know that an individual is left or right leaning. But I feel fairly safe making some assumptions. And in states where things tend to be close, if there was a lot of immigration (presumably from more-likely-to-lean-liberal people) and a large differential in Republican deaths vs. Democratic deaths, that could absolutely have very real effects in elections.
I saw this data out of the census bureau recently on covid 19 migration: https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2021/comm/how-does-your-state-compare.html?cid=how-does-your-compare
What this basically says is that there has been a large exit from California, New York, and Illinois and large influxes to Texas and Florida in the past year.
Basically, California and New York have each lost a couple hundred thousand people (lucky for New York, they would be down another EV now if the census were held this year) and Texas and Florida have both gained another couple hundred thousand people. I don't know how much of the demographics we can say are red vs blue, but I'd think that it could very well be a net positive to democrats in Texas and Florida about +20-30k. It's hard to say for sure though.
We have been thinking about moving to Ohio to find reasonable housing prices, so this data helps support that notion. It's good to know though that even New York or Mass might have plenty of property for sale. It's really hard to even find houses for sale in places where everyone is moving to.
I'm betting the majority of people moving to TX and FL are Republicans. Why else move to a place where schools are being prohibited from making kids wear masks? They're chasing low taxes, cheap McMansions, and the feeling of freedom that comes from directly inhaling the air inside WalMart.
I mostly grew up in CA and most of my family and friends still live there. Those that have moved (or seem to be strongly considering moving) are generally not the most liberal among the bunch, but most aren't moving because they are happy about kids not wearing masks and a chicken in every pot and a gun in every gun rack. There are a few of those, but most seem to be fairly moderate, politically, but wanting to get ahead financially and willing to tolerate those policies to get there.
In fact, this is a conversation I've had with an old friend who is really, really wanting to leave CA and plans to as soon as her partner's son graduates from high school. She runs her own niche consulting business and has contacts in Oklahoma. I've gently warned her, several times, that she should think long and hard before making that move. She hates that she can't afford a home in SoCal. She has also lived in SoCal most of her life and I don't get the sense she understands just how difficult it can be living in a place with a very, very different culture. She is pretty moderate, especially for CA, but I still think she might struggle moving to a very very conservative state. Her motivations for moving have very little to do with culture, and I'm afraid she's not paying enough attention to that element.
