Author Topic: Economic Reparations from China?  (Read 4932 times)

JGS1980

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Economic Reparations from China?
« on: March 25, 2020, 09:37:45 AM »
Just thinking off the top of my head here, but:

Assuming we can prove that the current Coronavirus global pandemic started in China, which led to a global economic meltdown, what recourse is there internationally to pursue economic reparations from China?

Anyone know the history of reparations from WWII, WWI? Any long term benefit or harms?

Just as an FYI, China owns about 1.1 Trillion dollars in US debt as of January 2020.


maizeman

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2020, 09:49:39 AM »
The reparations from World War I played a big role in creating the situation that lead to World War II. So very little in the way of economic reparations after world war II. If anything the victors spent a lot of money rebuilding the economies of the vanquished as the Marshall Plan applied to both allied and axis powers.

China definitely buried their head in the ground for a month or so as the coronavirus started spreading, but after that their containment efforts were faster and more effective than the majority of the countries* to which the virus has spread.

*South Korea has definitely been at least as effective, as have many of China's other immediate neighbors (Japan, Taiwan, etc) who learned the lessons from SARS about how to be prepared and react.

So I foresee three big barriers:
1) There is not positive modern precedents for reparations between nations even after wars.
2) China can point to the fact that they and their neighbors acted to effectively contain the virus so the human and economic cost to Europe and America is because we did not take effective action.
3) How exactly would any reparations be extracted from China? (Short of war between nuclear armed belligerents.)

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2020, 10:12:05 AM »
There's as much chance as there was of Mexico paying for the wall.

former player

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2020, 10:13:01 AM »
I could foresee countries that have China debt wanting to re-negotiate that debt on more favourable terms.

I would also be interested in seeing whether any international action can be taken to reduce the chances of the next deadly animal cross-over virus coming out of the Chinese wet markets.

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #4 on: March 25, 2020, 10:16:14 AM »
I could foresee countries that have China debt wanting to re-negotiate that debt on more favourable terms.

I have no idea what Chinese contract law looks like, but in the west we already have force majeure for that. No need for Chinese "reparations" which are never going to happen short of proving that China grew SAR-CoV-2 in a lab.

nereo

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #5 on: March 25, 2020, 10:32:35 AM »

Assuming we can prove that the current Coronavirus global pandemic started in China, which led to a global economic meltdown, what recourse is there internationally to pursue economic reparations from China?


I think trying for reparations would set a horrible precedent and is about the least likely thing imaginable. 

Thinking strictly about this virus, the United States would also share a ludicrously large amount of liability for allowing it to spread throughout and outside our country.

This is a terribly idea.

JGS1980

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #6 on: March 25, 2020, 11:52:03 AM »
I could foresee countries that have China debt wanting to re-negotiate that debt on more favorable terms.

I would also be interested in seeing whether any international action can be taken to reduce the chances of the next deadly animal cross-over virus coming out of the Chinese wet markets.

Renegotiation of debt seems like a possibility. Even a 1% drop in servicing that 1.1 Trillion Dollars in debt would make a dent in our yearly deficit.

C'mon people, I didn't say this was likely or even possible. This is a thought exercise.

In response to Maizeman's 3 big barriers:
1) There is not positive modern precedents for reparations between nations even after wars.

--> all of this is unprecedented, we will need a new playbook for global epidemics from now on...and appropriate penalties to avoid "moral hazard".

--> on the other hand, some would say they have been punished enough already. China will already have to deal with a global economic slowdown that they caused, and will also have to handle lots of countries deciding to manufacture "essential" supplies at home from now on.
 
2) China can point to the fact that they and their neighbors acted to effectively contain the virus so the human and economic cost to Europe and America is because we did not take effective action.

--> that is true, but effective action would not have been necessary to begin with if China had effectively squashed this concern at week 2 or 3 of the outbreak.

3) How exactly would any reparations be extracted from China? (Short of war between nuclear armed belligerents.)

--> see above renegotiation/cancelling of debt. This has been multiple times in the last 100 years during times of economic upheaval.

nereo

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #7 on: March 25, 2020, 11:58:24 AM »

C'mon people, I didn't say this was likely or even possible. This is a thought exercise.


I get that.  And as I (and others) have said, not only is it highly improbable,but it's a really bad idea, from a US perspective.  With the largest global footprint, the US would stand to be the defendant on a nearly endless string of reparation demands

JGS1980

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #8 on: March 25, 2020, 12:49:55 PM »

C'mon people, I didn't say this was likely or even possible. This is a thought exercise.


I get that.  And as I (and others) have said, not only is it highly improbable,but it's a really bad idea, from a US perspective.  With the largest global footprint, the US would stand to be the defendant on a nearly endless string of reparation demands

See answer to Maizeman's second question above.

Kris

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #9 on: March 25, 2020, 12:53:40 PM »
Terrible idea, for the reasons stated above. And also because going forward, we are going to have more pandemics, not fewer. Anything that causes countries to take an adversarial stance toward one another instead of a cooperative one is a terrible thing.

nereo

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #10 on: March 25, 2020, 01:14:34 PM »

C'mon people, I didn't say this was likely or even possible. This is a thought exercise.


I get that.  And as I (and others) have said, not only is it highly improbable,but it's a really bad idea, from a US perspective.  With the largest global footprint, the US would stand to be the defendant on a nearly endless string of reparation demands

See answer to Maizeman's second question above.
I donít see how that answers anything Iíve brought up. Care to rephrase?

GuitarStv

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #11 on: March 25, 2020, 01:27:26 PM »
Unless it was proven that the Chinese engineered this virus, I don't see why reparations would even be desirable.  Diseases exist.  They're out there, all over the world.  They don't know borders or nationality, and they can infect anyone.

The point of reparations in WWI was to punish the losers of the war for belligerent actions.  (It totally didn't work at all, but that's another story).  What belligerent actions are we supposed to be punishing China for?  And before you bitch about China sticking their head in the sand . . . look at the US response and then think hard about whether or not you want the rest of the world to be judging you.

maizeman

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #12 on: March 25, 2020, 01:49:21 PM »
C'mon people, I didn't say this was likely or even possible. This is a thought exercise.

I completely agree, but part of a thought exercise is pointing out the problems isn't it?

Quote
In response to Maizeman's 3 big barriers:
1) There is not positive modern precedents for reparations between nations even after wars.

--> all of this is unprecedented, we will need a new playbook for global epidemics from now on...and appropriate penalties to avoid "moral hazard".

But reparations are not unprecedented, it's just a lack of positive precedents. Like the example from WWI.

What moral hazard do you think needs to be addressed? Usually that phrase is used in the context of a person or organization taking on excess risk because they're confident that if bad things happen someone else will come along to save them from the consequences of their actions.

Quote
3) How exactly would any reparations be extracted from China? (Short of war between nuclear armed belligerents.)

--> see above renegotiation/cancelling of debt. This has been multiple times in the last 100 years during times of economic upheaval.

Renegotiation/cancelling of debt as reparations? I cannot actually thing of any examples of this, could you talk about the specific ones you have in mind?

Certainly there have been cases of debt being renegotiated or cancelled, but these have been to stave off default. If the USA ends up looking like Greece after the global financial crisis or Argentina in 2001 where we are unable to service our debt it is within the realm of possibility that countries might renegotiate the terms of our debt as a better alternative to complete default on the debt.

However:
1) that would mean the economy would need to be in orders of magnitude worse shape than it is now.
2) wouldn't be about reparations but about out nations trying to get some money out of the USA rather than none.
3) the key difference between the USA and Greece/Argentina is that our debt is in a currency we control, so a debt crisis in our country is much more likely to result in inflation as the Fed repurchases US government debt with newly created dollars than it is to result in a risk of sovereign default.

Even if that happened, in the current interest rate environment it wouldn't save us all that much money.

Even a 1% drop in servicing that 1.1 Trillion Dollars in debt would make a dent in our yearly deficit.

In 2019, before the coronavirus crisis in the USA, our annual deficit was $984B/year. The current yield on the 30 year US treasury is 1.33%. I'm guessing a lot of the debt China owns are actually 10 year ones which have a lower interest rate, but if all are 30 year bonds, that means China's 1.1 trillion dollars of US government debt is currently paying $15 billion dollars a year in interest. A one percent reduction in the cost of servicing that debt would be $0.15 billion dollars a year, which would amount to less than 1/5,000th of our annual deficit.

So yes, it would make a dent, but it would be a rather small one.

YttriumNitrate

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #13 on: March 26, 2020, 07:07:08 AM »
I don't foresee China paying reparations, but in order to save face I would expect them to come down extremely hard on anyone who violates their new law against eating wildlife.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/05/asia/china-coronavirus-wildlife-consumption-ban-intl-hnk/index.html

Bloop Bloop

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #14 on: March 26, 2020, 11:53:55 PM »
I think America still owes its slave descendants significant reparations. Perhaps attend to that and then start shaking the can in front of other countries.

deborah

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #15 on: March 27, 2020, 12:21:59 AM »
In no particular order:

Most of the Australian cases came from the US. Do you think the US would give us reparations?

China is currently ramping up its manufacturing of medical supplies, and giving many of them away to other nations - I think this is about as much, and the best reparation that could be had.

We might all be lucky if China doesn't end up buying a lot of bankrupt businesses all over the world, and effectively gaining world domination. This would be a friendly gesture that might enable many more businesses to survive than would otherwise happen.

dragoncar

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #16 on: March 27, 2020, 01:00:00 AM »
About as good as getting reparations from trump

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #17 on: March 27, 2020, 01:26:43 AM »
I rarely laugh out loud when reading a thread title.....thanks for the chuckle.

dragoncar

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #18 on: March 27, 2020, 01:43:57 AM »
I rarely laugh out loud when reading a thread title.....thanks for the chuckle.

Maybe the bats can chip in for their part in this mess ?

PKFFW

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #19 on: March 27, 2020, 04:27:10 AM »
I assume the OP wants the USA to make reparations to the rest of the world for the GFC then?

I mean if China should make reparations for inadvertently enabling an animal virus to jump to humans then surely the USA should make reparations for knowingly, illegally and fraudulently exporting the worst financial disaster since the great depression to the rest of the world?

LennStar

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #20 on: March 27, 2020, 05:36:20 AM »
How about China starts asking for reparations for the opium wars? With interest?


JGS1980

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #21 on: March 27, 2020, 06:38:53 AM »
Thanks everyone for your considered responses. I've been fairly busy lately, so I apologize for not directly responding to the objections above.

As improbable as this seems, I think we will hear more and more about this reparation issue once all the dust settles.

Why? Because when millions of peoples die, politicians will naturally want to blame someone else to keep from being blamed themselves. This thought process will naturally follow.

I guess I'll look back at this thread in 12 months and see how things go.

ender

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #22 on: March 27, 2020, 06:56:30 AM »

As improbable as this seems, I think we will hear more and more about this reparation issue once all the dust settles.

Why? Because when millions of peoples die, politicians will naturally want to blame someone else to keep from being blamed themselves. This thought process will naturally follow.

I guess I'll look back at this thread in 12 months and see how things go.

The United States attempting to extract any amount of reparations from China over this is going to start an economic war that the they cannot win vs China. This situation has made everyone much more aware of how economically tied together China and the United States are.

Even if this kills 1M Americans, I suspect the impact from the USA trying to force China into paying reparations would be considerably more catastrophic for the American way of life long term.

This being said, I think you might be onto something that Trump might get the idea that he should do this. He's already hyping it as the "China virus" and while I think the idea is economic suicide, it seems like something he still might try as a way to bribe people into voting for him in 2020.

maizeman

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #23 on: March 27, 2020, 07:20:23 AM »
This being said, I think you might be onto something that Trump might get the idea that he should do this. He's already hyping it as the "China virus" and while I think the idea is economic suicide, it seems like something he still might try as a way to bribe people into voting for him in 2020.

I agree. Definitely expect politicians who were already in power in 2020 try to put more of the blame for the virus on China as both the deaths and the economic disruption continues to grow.

Just don't think it will be in the forms of discussions about reparations because there's no way to get those and that'll make the same politicians look weak/impotent. Probably just more stuff along the current vein of trying to call it the Chinese Virus/Wuhan Flu and that sort of thing.

China is currently ramping up its manufacturing of medical supplies, and giving many of them away to other nations - I think this is about as much, and the best reparation that could be had.

And this isn't only happening at the government to government level. Individual people in China are mailing PPE to people they know in the USA (I can speak from personal experience, but here's another example.)

Contrast that with what's happening with the US government, which is saying they'd be willing to buy face masks and other medical PPE from China but only if those deliveries aren't used to improve China's image. (Source)

GuitarStv

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #24 on: March 27, 2020, 07:29:28 AM »

As improbable as this seems, I think we will hear more and more about this reparation issue once all the dust settles.

Why? Because when millions of peoples die, politicians will naturally want to blame someone else to keep from being blamed themselves. This thought process will naturally follow.

I guess I'll look back at this thread in 12 months and see how things go.

The United States attempting to extract any amount of reparations from China over this is going to start an economic war that the they cannot win vs China. This situation has made everyone much more aware of how economically tied together China and the United States are.

Even if this kills 1M Americans, I suspect the impact from the USA trying to force China into paying reparations would be considerably more catastrophic for the American way of life long term.

This being said, I think you might be onto something that Trump might get the idea that he should do this. He's already hyping it as the "China virus" and while I think the idea is economic suicide, it seems like something he still might try as a way to bribe people into voting for him in 2020.



Important to note that Trump is a tremendously stupid man.  He also had a plan to make Mexico pay for a wall to keep all those Mexican rapists out of the United States.  I'd expect 'reparations' from China to go the same way.

runbikerun

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #25 on: March 27, 2020, 07:48:45 AM »
If there's a moral case for when people from another country export a novel illness and kill your compatriots, then the native American population would like a word with any white American who can't prove their ancestors arrived post-1700 or so.

FIRE Artist

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #26 on: March 27, 2020, 08:47:25 AM »
How about China starts asking for reparations for the opium wars? With interest?

This was my first thought too.

J Boogie

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #27 on: March 27, 2020, 09:02:34 AM »
Unless it was proven that the Chinese engineered this virus, I don't see why reparations would even be desirable.  Diseases exist.  They're out there, all over the world.  They don't know borders or nationality, and they can infect anyone.

The point of reparations in WWI was to punish the losers of the war for belligerent actions.  (It totally didn't work at all, but that's another story).  What belligerent actions are we supposed to be punishing China for?  And before you bitch about China sticking their head in the sand . . . look at the US response and then think hard about whether or not you want the rest of the world to be judging you.

The idea that the US is anywhere near as liable as China for COVID19 is intellectually vapid false equivalence.

Trump tried to downplay it, ostensibly because he wanted the economy to keep moving up and to the right so he could cruise into a second term. I concede he showed again that he will put his own interests before the United States' interests.

He regularly contradicts the medical experts, but, and this is important, he doesn't silence them, force them to sign letters of apology swearing they will not do it again, and threaten to prosecute them.

China's default stance of hostility towards free speech is the crime that rippled throughout the world and deserves some type of justice. I don't believe in blaming China for allowing Covid19 to originate or blaming China for insufficient efforts to contain Covid19 - but they should be discouraged from maintaining their institutional stance which has the knee jerk reaction to gaslight and punish credible whistleblowers as opposed to investigating their claims and acting responsibly.

Perhaps formal reparations would be a bad idea, but I think this episode is VERY illustrative of the unintended consequences of globalism when it involves nations who do not share your principles, and perhaps it will cause nations to adopt a more cautious approach to relations with China (Unless China is proactive about communicating their remorse and reforms in the wake of this, which it seems to be starting and realizing is in its best interest).


runbikerun

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #28 on: March 27, 2020, 09:07:15 AM »
If we're talking reparations, how much does the US owe Iraq at this point?

LennStar

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #29 on: March 27, 2020, 09:25:45 AM »
If we're talking reparations, how much does the US owe Iraq at this point?
Roughly a million lives @ $9 million (US rate) or $200 (Afghanistan) dollar each.

Plus Infrastructure etc. of course. And extracted oil given voluntarily to US companies.

GuitarStv

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #30 on: March 27, 2020, 09:47:15 AM »
Unless it was proven that the Chinese engineered this virus, I don't see why reparations would even be desirable.  Diseases exist.  They're out there, all over the world.  They don't know borders or nationality, and they can infect anyone.

The point of reparations in WWI was to punish the losers of the war for belligerent actions.  (It totally didn't work at all, but that's another story).  What belligerent actions are we supposed to be punishing China for?  And before you bitch about China sticking their head in the sand . . . look at the US response and then think hard about whether or not you want the rest of the world to be judging you.

The idea that the US is anywhere near as liable as China for COVID19 is intellectually vapid false equivalence.

I disagree.  I'd say that based on all available evidence so far China and the US are equally to blame for covid19.  At least insofar as neither should shoulder any real blame.  Diseases happen, and when they're highly communicable it's very hard to control them.  Could China have done things better?  Yep.  Could the US?  Yep.



Trump tried to downplay it, ostensibly because he wanted the economy to keep moving up and to the right so he could cruise into a second term. I concede he showed again that he will put his own interests before the United States' interests.

He regularly contradicts the medical experts, but, and this is important, he doesn't silence them, force them to sign letters of apology swearing they will not do it again, and threaten to prosecute them.

Trump's lies and misinformation in a time of crisis have created confusion and helped the US to achieve it's status as the most infected country on the planet.  His dismantling of infectious disease response units in the US also helped.  But this has all been well documented, and I don't think there's much need to rehash it.

Trump does not currently force his medical experts to be silenced - agreed.  But he absolutely was working to silence them early on (https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-response-coronavirus-mimics-authoritarian-regimes-2020-2).  Don't get me wrong - the silencing that China initially did was wrong, and worse than what Trump has been able to do.  No argument from me on that.


China's default stance of hostility towards free speech is the crime that rippled throughout the world and deserves some type of justice. I don't believe in blaming China for allowing Covid19 to originate or blaming China for insufficient efforts to contain Covid19 - but they should be discouraged from maintaining their institutional stance which has the knee jerk reaction to gaslight and punish credible whistleblowers as opposed to investigating their claims and acting responsibly.

I agree with you that a knee-jerk reaction to gas-light and punish credible whistle-blowers as opposed to investigating their claims and acting responsibly is bad.  But American outrage at this practice would hold a lot more weight if not for the case of Edward Snowden.  Y'know . . . where a credible whistle-blower was gas-lighted and punished for bringing wrongdoing to the public - rather than investigating his claims and acting responsibly.

:P


Perhaps formal reparations would be a bad idea, but I think this episode is VERY illustrative of the unintended consequences of globalism when it involves nations who do not share your principles, and perhaps it will cause nations to adopt a more cautious approach to relations with China (Unless China is proactive about communicating their remorse and reforms in the wake of this, which it seems to be starting and realizing is in its best interest).

No two nations share exactly the same principles.  This pandemic wasn't caused by a difference of principals or trade.  It was caused by a new disease and lots of international travel between countries.  I don't think a more cautious approach to relations with China would have had significant impact on the spread of this virus.

J Boogie

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #31 on: March 27, 2020, 01:24:16 PM »
Unless it was proven that the Chinese engineered this virus, I don't see why reparations would even be desirable.  Diseases exist.  They're out there, all over the world.  They don't know borders or nationality, and they can infect anyone.

The point of reparations in WWI was to punish the losers of the war for belligerent actions.  (It totally didn't work at all, but that's another story).  What belligerent actions are we supposed to be punishing China for?  And before you bitch about China sticking their head in the sand . . . look at the US response and then think hard about whether or not you want the rest of the world to be judging you.

The idea that the US is anywhere near as liable as China for COVID19 is intellectually vapid false equivalence.

I disagree.  I'd say that based on all available evidence so far China and the US are equally to blame for covid19.  At least insofar as neither should shoulder any real blame.  Diseases happen, and when they're highly communicable it's very hard to control them.  Could China have done things better?  Yep.  Could the US?  Yep.



Trump tried to downplay it, ostensibly because he wanted the economy to keep moving up and to the right so he could cruise into a second term. I concede he showed again that he will put his own interests before the United States' interests.

He regularly contradicts the medical experts, but, and this is important, he doesn't silence them, force them to sign letters of apology swearing they will not do it again, and threaten to prosecute them.

Trump's lies and misinformation in a time of crisis have created confusion and helped the US to achieve it's status as the most infected country on the planet.  His dismantling of infectious disease response units in the US also helped.  But this has all been well documented, and I don't think there's much need to rehash it.

Trump does not currently force his medical experts to be silenced - agreed.  But he absolutely was working to silence them early on (https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-response-coronavirus-mimics-authoritarian-regimes-2020-2).  Don't get me wrong - the silencing that China initially did was wrong, and worse than what Trump has been able to do.  No argument from me on that.


China's default stance of hostility towards free speech is the crime that rippled throughout the world and deserves some type of justice. I don't believe in blaming China for allowing Covid19 to originate or blaming China for insufficient efforts to contain Covid19 - but they should be discouraged from maintaining their institutional stance which has the knee jerk reaction to gaslight and punish credible whistleblowers as opposed to investigating their claims and acting responsibly.

I agree with you that a knee-jerk reaction to gas-light and punish credible whistle-blowers as opposed to investigating their claims and acting responsibly is bad.  But American outrage at this practice would hold a lot more weight if not for the case of Edward Snowden.  Y'know . . . where a credible whistle-blower was gas-lighted and punished for bringing wrongdoing to the public - rather than investigating his claims and acting responsibly.

:P


Perhaps formal reparations would be a bad idea, but I think this episode is VERY illustrative of the unintended consequences of globalism when it involves nations who do not share your principles, and perhaps it will cause nations to adopt a more cautious approach to relations with China (Unless China is proactive about communicating their remorse and reforms in the wake of this, which it seems to be starting and realizing is in its best interest).

No two nations share exactly the same principles.  This pandemic wasn't caused by a difference of principals or trade.  It was caused by a new disease and lots of international travel between countries.  I don't think a more cautious approach to relations with China would have had significant impact on the spread of this virus.

At first you say it seems the US and China are equally at fault because they both could have handled it better.

But then you agree with me that what China did was worse than what Trump has done.

It seems obvious that China had a greater opportunity to contain Covid19 and blew it due to their aggressive stance towards free speech.

I like Snowden, but I don't think he's a good analogy. The difference there is that our (the US "Intelligence Community") intent in violating human rights was to keep us and the world safe from terrorism. We strayed quite far from that intent, but that was our undeniably our original intent. China meanwhile did not have an intent like that. It appears their intent was to avoid looking bad on the world stage.

Also, our heroic whistleblower broke the rules to share classified information and does not contest this. As far as I know, Dr. Li Wenliang was not breaking any type of protocol in sharing his initial findings.


And yes, if nations had the same relationship with, say, North Korea, as they have with China, then we probably wouldn't even know about this disease. I'm not saying China is equivalent to NK, but I'm saying our free global trade (which involves plenty of businesspeople who travel) with China is predicated upon many basic assumptions, one being that their country is safe to travel in and any contagious diseases that break out will receive full priority. If China develops a reputation for missing key windows of opportunity to contain outbreaks because they want to save face, then it will no longer be as attractive of a country to do business with.


GuitarStv

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #32 on: March 27, 2020, 02:19:12 PM »
At first you say it seems the US and China are equally at fault because they both could have handled it better.

That wasn't my intent, if it came across that way.  My intent was to say that they're equally not at fault . . . because neither of them created the virus or purposely spread the virus.




But then you agree with me that what China did was worse than what Trump has done.

It seems obvious that China had a greater opportunity to contain Covid19 and blew it due to their aggressive stance towards free speech.

Directly punishing the doctors who are reporting the first stages of a pandemic is worse than standing up and publicly lying about the impacts of a pandemic to your population while your experts then say the exact opposite.  But we're talking degrees of bad here.  Both are stupid, and both made things much worse than they had to be.

While what they did was more wrong . . . China didn't 'blow it' because of their stance towards free speech though, at least not any more than the US 'blew it' because the countries protections for free speech shelter an incompetent man in power and allow him to use his position to publicly lie about the situation without repercussion.




I like Snowden, but I don't think he's a good analogy. The difference there is that our (the US "Intelligence Community") intent in violating human rights was to keep us and the world safe from terrorism. We strayed quite far from that intent, but that was our undeniably our original intent. China meanwhile did not have an intent like that. It appears their intent was to avoid looking bad on the world stage.

Also, our heroic whistleblower broke the rules to share classified information and does not contest this. As far as I know, Dr. Li Wenliang was not breaking any type of protocol in sharing his initial findings.

I don't believe the US intelligence community has ever had an intent to keep the world safe from anything.  Mountains of historical evidence certainly doesn't seem to agree with that claim.  Even if they did, it didn't make anyone in the world safer to persecute Snowden after the fact for revealing that these agencies were routinely violating the rights of Americans and that they were lying to the politicians who were supposed to be in charge about it.




And yes, if nations had the same relationship with, say, North Korea, as they have with China, then we probably wouldn't even know about this disease. I'm not saying China is equivalent to NK, but I'm saying our free global trade (which involves plenty of businesspeople who travel) with China is predicated upon many basic assumptions, one being that their country is safe to travel in and any contagious diseases that break out will receive full priority. If China develops a reputation for missing key windows of opportunity to contain outbreaks because they want to save face, then it will no longer be as attractive of a country to do business with.

People will generally do business with whoever is most likely to make them money, even if it puts their own life at risk.  China is the biggest trading partner of the United States.  This has nothing at all to do with China's great record regarding health and safety or human rights.

China has always had a reputation for playing loose and fast with health/safety/environmental rules.  It has not made them less attractive a country to do business.  Quite the opposite . . . it's a benefit that leads to lower costs.  Business rewards those who take risks.

marty998

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #33 on: March 27, 2020, 02:24:45 PM »
If we're talking reparations, how much does the US owe Iraq at this point?
Roughly a million lives @ $9 million (US rate) or $200 (Afghanistan) dollar each.

Plus Infrastructure etc. of course. And extracted oil given voluntarily to US companies.

Should I mention the 300 thousand tonnes of napalm dropped on Vietnam?

Apple_Tango

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #34 on: March 27, 2020, 05:20:34 PM »
With the way we raise and slaughter animals, a zoonotic virus like this coronavirus might easily start in the US and be the next pandemic in 20-30 years. Itís a worldwide burden, so no, China should not pay reparations.

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #35 on: March 28, 2020, 01:49:00 AM »
Quote
The difference there is that our (the US "Intelligence Community") intent in violating human rights was to keep us and the world safe from terrorism. We strayed quite far from that intent, but that was our undeniably our original intent. China meanwhile did not have an intent like that.

Are you really that naive??

A terrorist is always and only someone who does something that you don't agree with and who you can't stop with normal means.
(For the other side it's a freedom fighter fighting against oppression.)

So for China: They just tried to prevent that terrorist from damaging the Chinese people.


If we're talking reparations, how much does the US owe Iraq at this point?
Roughly a million lives @ $9 million (US rate) or $200 (Afghanistan) dollar each.

Plus Infrastructure etc. of course. And extracted oil given voluntarily to US companies.

Should I mention the 300 thousand tonnes of napalm dropped on Vietnam?

Certainly not in the context of Iraq O.o


nereo

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #36 on: March 28, 2020, 05:12:47 AM »
I thought you would know better @GuitarStv - Canada is the United States largest trading partner, not China. Itís true that the US imports more from China, but the amount we sell to Canada far outstrips the difference, making Canada our largest trading partner. FWIW Mexico is #2 in exports, and China recently bumped the UK (barely) to take the #3 spot

GuitarStv

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #37 on: March 28, 2020, 07:17:28 AM »
I thought you would know better @GuitarStv - Canada is the United States largest trading partner, not China. Itís true that the US imports more from China, but the amount we sell to Canada far outstrips the difference, making Canada our largest trading partner. FWIW Mexico is #2 in exports, and China recently bumped the UK (barely) to take the #3 spot

Fair enough.  I stand corrected, thank you.

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #38 on: March 28, 2020, 09:08:58 AM »
I thought you would know better @GuitarStv - Canada is the United States largest trading partner, not China. Itís true that the US imports more from China, but the amount we sell to Canada far outstrips the difference, making Canada our largest trading partner. FWIW Mexico is #2 in exports, and China recently bumped the UK (barely) to take the #3 spot

Fair enough.  I stand corrected, thank you.
Didnít mean that to come out as pithy as it did. Blame it on posting pure-coffee with a toddler screaming. It was meant to be light hearted but I think it didnít come out that way.

It just fascinates me how many people donít realize how connected the US and Canada are, economically.

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #39 on: March 28, 2020, 11:50:51 AM »
I thought you would know better @GuitarStv - Canada is the United States largest trading partner, not China. Itís true that the US imports more from China, but the amount we sell to Canada far outstrips the difference, making Canada our largest trading partner. FWIW Mexico is #2 in exports, and China recently bumped the UK (barely) to take the #3 spot

Fair enough.  I stand corrected, thank you.
Didnít mean that to come out as pithy as it did. Blame it on posting pure-coffee with a toddler screaming. It was meant to be light hearted but I think it didnít come out that way.

It just fascinates me how many people donít realize how connected the US and Canada are, economically.

Brexit *cough cough*

RetiredAt63

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #40 on: March 28, 2020, 11:59:20 AM »
I thought you would know better @GuitarStv - Canada is the United States largest trading partner, not China. Itís true that the US imports more from China, but the amount we sell to Canada far outstrips the difference, making Canada our largest trading partner. FWIW Mexico is #2 in exports, and China recently bumped the UK (barely) to take the #3 spot

Fair enough.  I stand corrected, thank you.

It would be nice if President Trump realized that.  I would bet he would put Canada at #3 at best.

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #41 on: March 30, 2020, 08:36:18 AM »
Quote
The difference there is that our (the US "Intelligence Community") intent in violating human rights was to keep us and the world safe from terrorism. We strayed quite far from that intent, but that was our undeniably our original intent. China meanwhile did not have an intent like that.

Are you really that naive??

A terrorist is always and only someone who does something that you don't agree with and who you can't stop with normal means.
(For the other side it's a freedom fighter fighting against oppression.)

So for China: They just tried to prevent that terrorist from damaging the Chinese people.

Are you really that intent on making up your own definitions?

A terrorist is "always and only" a person who uses unlawful violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims.

It doesn't matter what "the other side" considers them, if they do the above, they are by definition a terrorist.

I'm curious to know why you're trying to redefine this word though. Is it your position that the US did not and does not have a genuine interest in preventing terrorist attacks at home and abroad?








« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 08:38:25 AM by J Boogie »

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #42 on: March 30, 2020, 08:43:53 AM »
Quote
The difference there is that our (the US "Intelligence Community") intent in violating human rights was to keep us and the world safe from terrorism. We strayed quite far from that intent, but that was our undeniably our original intent. China meanwhile did not have an intent like that.

Are you really that naive??

A terrorist is always and only someone who does something that you don't agree with and who you can't stop with normal means.
(For the other side it's a freedom fighter fighting against oppression.)

So for China: They just tried to prevent that terrorist from damaging the Chinese people.

Are you really that intent on making up your own definitions?

A terrorist is "always and only" a person who uses unlawful violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims.

It doesn't matter what "the other side" considers them, if they do the above, they are by definition a terrorist.

I'm curious to know why you're trying to redefine this word though. Is it your position that the US did not and does not have a genuine interest in preventing terrorist attacks at home and abroad?
Was Nelson Mandela a terrorist?

Hint: it's not enough to consider the person acting, you also have to consider what they are acting against.  If someone is not living in a democracy with rule of law and human rights, is it still terrorism?

GuitarStv

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #43 on: March 30, 2020, 08:46:50 AM »
Quote
The difference there is that our (the US "Intelligence Community") intent in violating human rights was to keep us and the world safe from terrorism. We strayed quite far from that intent, but that was our undeniably our original intent. China meanwhile did not have an intent like that.

Are you really that naive??

A terrorist is always and only someone who does something that you don't agree with and who you can't stop with normal means.
(For the other side it's a freedom fighter fighting against oppression.)

So for China: They just tried to prevent that terrorist from damaging the Chinese people.

Are you really that intent on making up your own definitions?

A terrorist is "always and only" a person who uses unlawful violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims.

It doesn't matter what "the other side" considers them, if they do the above, they are by definition a terrorist.

I'm curious to know why you're trying to redefine this word though. Is it your position that the US did not and does not have a genuine interest in preventing terrorist attacks at home and abroad?

Unlawful violence and intimidation?  Check.  Against civilians?  Check.  In the pursuit of political aims?  Check.

The United States was founded by terrorists according to that definition.  :P

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #44 on: March 30, 2020, 09:10:15 AM »

I don't believe the US intelligence community has ever had an intent to keep the world safe from anything.  Mountains of historical evidence certainly doesn't seem to agree with that claim.


It is fairly clear that the FBI and CIA have partnered with allies to help prevent terrorist attacks. If you prefer to be selective with CIA/FBI history so you can hold in your mind a mustache twirling cartoon villain version of the US, so be it. But you should know that this same willful ignorance of inconvenient facts makes you no different than your ideological opponents who ignore their own set of inconvenient facts.



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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #45 on: March 30, 2020, 09:24:12 AM »

Was Nelson Mandela a terrorist?

Hint: it's not enough to consider the person acting, you also have to consider what they are acting against.  If someone is not living in a democracy with rule of law and human rights, is it still terrorism?

Did he target and kill innocent civilians as the chief strategy to advance his goals? If so, then yes. But he intentionally limited his attacks to critical infrastructure so as to avoid killing and injuring. The group he founded (MK) DID later deviate from this position into terrorism, but Mandela himself was not a terrorist.

Yes, it's enough to consider the person acting. Mandela would have been a terrorist if he would have targeted innocent people to advance his cause, no matter the direness of the situation.

J Boogie

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #46 on: March 30, 2020, 09:50:23 AM »

And yes, if nations had the same relationship with, say, North Korea, as they have with China, then we probably wouldn't even know about this disease. I'm not saying China is equivalent to NK, but I'm saying our free global trade (which involves plenty of businesspeople who travel) with China is predicated upon many basic assumptions, one being that their country is safe to travel in and any contagious diseases that break out will receive full priority. If China develops a reputation for missing key windows of opportunity to contain outbreaks because they want to save face, then it will no longer be as attractive of a country to do business with.

People will generally do business with whoever is most likely to make them money, even if it puts their own life at risk.  China is the biggest trading partner of the United States.  This has nothing at all to do with China's great record regarding health and safety or human rights.

China has always had a reputation for playing loose and fast with health/safety/environmental rules.  It has not made them less attractive a country to do business.  Quite the opposite . . . it's a benefit that leads to lower costs.  Business rewards those who take risks.

In some ways, you're right about lower costs. But you are ignoring the fact that large corporations are the major players in global trade. Have you worked for a large corporation? Risk mitigation is huge for large corporations. They don't want lawsuits. They don't want supply chain disruptions. They don't want to show up in the news because their suppliers had to install suicide prevention netting around their dormitories. But you're right that so far many companies have been plenty willing to put up with these things (and stolen IP) for low costs and unrivaled manufacturing output. My point is that a line DOES exist that China could cross that would cause global corporations to look elsewhere.

GuitarStv

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #47 on: March 30, 2020, 09:57:30 AM »

I don't believe the US intelligence community has ever had an intent to keep the world safe from anything.  Mountains of historical evidence certainly doesn't seem to agree with that claim.


It is fairly clear that the FBI and CIA have partnered with allies to help prevent terrorist attacks. If you prefer to be selective with CIA/FBI history so you can hold in your mind a mustache twirling cartoon villain version of the US, so be it. But you should know that this same willful ignorance of inconvenient facts makes you no different than your ideological opponents who ignore their own set of inconvenient facts.


Which terror attacks in particular are you referring to that have been prevented?  Can you list them?  I'm quite willing to

Certainly, I don't think the US is an evil country on the whole . . . but the actions of the CIA in the world have been evil for a very long time - with an extensive history and pattern of overthrowing peaceful and/or democratic governments to institute brutal dictators who have committed atrocities.  Like not once or twice, or a dozen times.  It's a constant and regular pattern in  US history.  The US military currently commits acts of terrorism with impunity in northern Pakistan, regularly murdering civilians via drone strike in their attempt to "get terrorists".  The CIA was extensively involved in kidnapping innocent civlians from around the world and then arbitrarily detaining/torturing/raping/murdering them (a job currently taken over and run by the US military).

The reason I asked you to list the prevented terrorist acts is that nothing I've seen or read indicates they have come close to outweighing the damage caused.  But I'm certainly open to new facts or information if you've got some you would like to bring up.

GuitarStv

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #48 on: March 30, 2020, 10:02:26 AM »

And yes, if nations had the same relationship with, say, North Korea, as they have with China, then we probably wouldn't even know about this disease. I'm not saying China is equivalent to NK, but I'm saying our free global trade (which involves plenty of businesspeople who travel) with China is predicated upon many basic assumptions, one being that their country is safe to travel in and any contagious diseases that break out will receive full priority. If China develops a reputation for missing key windows of opportunity to contain outbreaks because they want to save face, then it will no longer be as attractive of a country to do business with.

People will generally do business with whoever is most likely to make them money, even if it puts their own life at risk.  China is the biggest trading partner of the United States.  This has nothing at all to do with China's great record regarding health and safety or human rights.

China has always had a reputation for playing loose and fast with health/safety/environmental rules.  It has not made them less attractive a country to do business.  Quite the opposite . . . it's a benefit that leads to lower costs.  Business rewards those who take risks.

In some ways, you're right about lower costs. But you are ignoring the fact that large corporations are the major players in global trade. Have you worked for a large corporation? Risk mitigation is huge for large corporations. They don't want lawsuits. They don't want supply chain disruptions. They don't want to show up in the news because their suppliers had to install suicide prevention netting around their dormitories. But you're right that so far many companies have been plenty willing to put up with these things (and stolen IP) for low costs and unrivaled manufacturing output. My point is that a line DOES exist that China could cross that would cause global corporations to look elsewhere.

Agreed.  A line exists.  That line is profits.  When it's no longer profitable to do business with China, then corporations will stop.

The 'beauty' of outsourcing the manufacturing for an entire country is that nobody who is purchasing stuff really has to look at/think about environmental or human damage of their choices.  That largely removes the consumer from being a factor in penalizing these companies.  So yeah, you might get the occasional news story about iPhone workers killing themselves and having suicide nets set up . . . but it's not going to have an appreciable impact on sales in North America.

The occasional pandemic is costly too . . . but I bet you that immediately after this sickness is over and squashed business will resume with China largely the same as before.

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Re: Economic Reparations from China?
« Reply #49 on: March 30, 2020, 10:29:52 AM »

I don't believe the US intelligence community has ever had an intent to keep the world safe from anything.  Mountains of historical evidence certainly doesn't seem to agree with that claim.


It is fairly clear that the FBI and CIA have partnered with allies to help prevent terrorist attacks. If you prefer to be selective with CIA/FBI history so you can hold in your mind a mustache twirling cartoon villain version of the US, so be it. But you should know that this same willful ignorance of inconvenient facts makes you no different than your ideological opponents who ignore their own set of inconvenient facts.


Which terror attacks in particular are you referring to that have been prevented?  Can you list them?  I'm quite willing to

Certainly, I don't think the US is an evil country on the whole . . . but the actions of the CIA in the world have been evil for a very long time - with an extensive history and pattern of overthrowing peaceful and/or democratic governments to institute brutal dictators who have committed atrocities.  Like not once or twice, or a dozen times.  It's a constant and regular pattern in  US history.  The US military currently commits acts of terrorism with impunity in northern Pakistan, regularly murdering civilians via drone strike in their attempt to "get terrorists".  The CIA was extensively involved in kidnapping innocent civlians from around the world and then arbitrarily detaining/torturing/raping/murdering them (a job currently taken over and run by the US military).

The reason I asked you to list the prevented terrorist acts is that nothing I've seen or read indicates they have come close to outweighing the damage caused.  But I'm certainly open to new facts or information if you've got some you would like to bring up.

Well, if you'd like a very specific example where the US received direct credit, here.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/04/21/politics/us-soldier-saves-denmark-school/index.html


But in general the way it works is that, similar to regular defense,  US intelligence plays an outsized role in global counterterrorism intelligence compared to its allies (our annual intelligence budget is about 60 billion compared to, say, Germany at just under 1 billion).

And since we track the movements of the terrorists we surveil, and we share pertinent information with our allied counterparts, it can be reasonably assumed there was significant contribution from US intelligence in many of these foiled plots.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_thwarted_Islamist_terrorist_attacks#cite_note-63


And what we do in Pakistan et all is NOT terrorism. Misuse of the word is getting tiring. You can make the point that the US kills innocent civilians as collateral damage when we target those we suspect to be terrorists. But the crucial distinction is that we ACCEPT some civilian casualties as opposed to intentionally targeting civilians, which is what would make it terrorism.

This isn't that difficult of a distinction to make. Perhaps it is not so much that the distinction is difficult to understand, but that the word is so negatively perceived that people have a motive to classify non-terrorist things they don't like as terrorism (such as US drone strikes) while rejecting the definition when it is accurately used to describe terrorism committed by a group they are sympathetic to such as the ANC/MK.

As Abe Lincoln said, how many legs does a dog have if you call its tail a leg? 4, because calling it a leg doesn't make it a leg.