Poll

What are your thoughts on a covid-related full-scale lockdown in the USA, enforced by the military by Xmas?

Never happen
58 (53.2%)
Never happen but I wish it would
11 (10.1%)
Won't happen but I'm in self-imposed xmas lockdown
34 (31.2%)
Maybe in some places
5 (4.6%)
I'm actively preparing for it.
1 (0.9%)

Total Members Voted: 109

Voting closed: November 20, 2020, 07:28:11 PM

Author Topic: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?  (Read 18026 times)

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #150 on: November 25, 2020, 09:23:41 AM »
Why do people outside of the United States think that our "covid response" is so terrible? From what I can see from the data, we have about half the deaths per capita per day of the UK and a third of Italy. And all that in spite of the fact that many states/counties have very low covid rates and do not have any stay at home orders in place and life is basically normal.

Because it is terrible. Comparing terrible results with other countries with terrible results doesn’t make your results better. Try comparing it with countries who’s leadership took appropriate and swift action.

The USA has 131x more COVID deaths per million than my country does. We have never had a mandatory mask mandate (except on public transport), I’ve never even worn a mask this whole time, the total amount of weeks I’ve been in lock down is 8.

FWIW other than the 8 weeks of lockdown my life is normal. We can sit at restaurants inside, I’ve been to a concert, we have private gatherings, shake hands, hug each other.

So why are we doing 131 x better? Our leadership acted fast with a coordinated effort across many sectors. The tragedy is the USA could have had similar results to New Zealand, but a failure of leadership prevented that.

I have to call BS on this. No, a country of 330 million people with hundreds of international entry points cannot be reasonably compared to an isolated island nation of five million with a handful of international entry points.

Wuhan locked down January 23rd at which point the first identified patient in the US had already arrived from Wuhan on January 15th. New Zealand first started restricting travel from China on February 3rd - around the same time the US and many other countries did the same. But because of the high level of travel between the US and China there were already multiple infected people in the US spread across multiple states.

We could have done better, but comparing one of the largest countries on earth to an isolated island nation like New Zealand or Iceland is disingenuous at best.

NZ has many advantages, such as a leader who is trusted and believes in the virus and people who believe in their government, but being an island with controllable access points is one of the largest.

Of course, England is also an island and it's doing shitty. A lot depends on how the populace is reacting and, in this, Americans and Brits are acting like children.

I dunno. I saw a meme on Facebook comparing conforming by wearing a mask to conforming in Nazi Germany giving the Nazi salute. It was pretty convincing.... /s

PDXTabs

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #151 on: November 25, 2020, 10:31:08 AM »
Of course, England is also an island and it's doing shitty. A lot depends on how the populace is reacting and, in this, Americans and Brits are acting like children.

Did NZ really lock down the borders? Because the EU and NAFTA kept the borders open for food and supplies. You can still cross to/from Mexico/USA/Canada without quarantine as long as you are driving a truck full of goods.

Having lived in the US and UK, I'm not sure that the food supply chains are setup for a real border closure. Maybe NZ is.

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #152 on: November 25, 2020, 11:27:18 AM »
Of course, England is also an island and it's doing shitty. A lot depends on how the populace is reacting and, in this, Americans and Brits are acting like children.

Did NZ really lock down the borders? Because the EU and NAFTA kept the borders open for food and supplies. You can still cross to/from Mexico/USA/Canada without quarantine as long as you are driving a truck full of goods.

Having lived in the US and UK, I'm not sure that the food supply chains are setup for a real border closure. Maybe NZ is.

No country really locked down borders.  At least to my knowledge they all kept borders open for trade/mail/etc.

PDXTabs

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #153 on: November 25, 2020, 12:39:52 PM »
No country really locked down borders.  At least to my knowledge they all kept borders open for trade/mail/etc.

Umm, [a]n estimated 300,000 cargo ship workers are currently trapped at sea by the coronavirus pandemic, and many are speaking out about the grinding monotony and possible accidents. - https://www.businessinsider.com/cargo-ship-workers-trapped-sea-predict-anarchy-not-sent-home-2020-7

Maybe they let the goods in - that's a lot different than NAFTA and the EU where, to the best of my knowledge, they let the drivers in.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2020, 12:49:27 PM by PDXTabs »

GuitarStv

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #154 on: November 25, 2020, 01:10:11 PM »
No country really locked down borders.  At least to my knowledge they all kept borders open for trade/mail/etc.

Umm, [a]n estimated 300,000 cargo ship workers are currently trapped at sea by the coronavirus pandemic, and many are speaking out about the grinding monotony and possible accidents. - https://www.businessinsider.com/cargo-ship-workers-trapped-sea-predict-anarchy-not-sent-home-2020-7

Maybe they let the goods in - that's a lot different than NAFTA and the EU where, to the best of my knowledge, they let the drivers in.

I've seen no disruption whatsoever to supply chains where shipping is required  . . .  but I did not know that that was going on with shipping crews.  That's pretty crazy.

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #155 on: November 25, 2020, 05:40:46 PM »
No country really locked down borders.  At least to my knowledge they all kept borders open for trade/mail/etc.

Umm, [a]n estimated 300,000 cargo ship workers are currently trapped at sea by the coronavirus pandemic, and many are speaking out about the grinding monotony and possible accidents. - https://www.businessinsider.com/cargo-ship-workers-trapped-sea-predict-anarchy-not-sent-home-2020-7

Maybe they let the goods in - that's a lot different than NAFTA and the EU where, to the best of my knowledge, they let the drivers in.

I've seen no disruption whatsoever to supply chains where shipping is required  . . .  but I did not know that that was going on with shipping crews.  That's pretty crazy.

South Korea "locked down" international arrivals only to the point of requiring a 2 week quarantine at your own expense in a government-designated location (roughly $100/day) or in our case at a military facility.  It has significantly reduced travel because people don't want to foot the bill or add 2 weeks to whatever their trip was for.  This process catches and filters about 20 infected people per day.  I haven't looked into the shipping side of things, but there has been a noticeable delay in the supply chain for stocking our commissary. Since we're stocked with mostly US-based goods there's always a chance of inventory problems, but we've had a couple iterations of bare shelves for some items. Mail has also doubled in wait times.

gooki

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #156 on: November 25, 2020, 06:20:06 PM »
[New Zealand has a bunch of attributes that would probably have allowed you guys to handle it well even with subpar leadership.

Sub par leadership in NZ would have resulted in UK levels of COVID deaths. there’s nothing magical about the people that live in New Zealand. We’re not an island of elves, dwarf, wizards and hobbits.

Did NZ really lock down the borders? Because the EU and NAFTA kept the borders open for food and supplies.

Our customs boarders remained open. We shut our borders to non residents.

I have to call BS on this. No, a country of 330 million people with hundreds of international entry points cannot be reasonably compared to an isolated island nation of five million with a handful of international entry points.

Wuhan locked down January 23rd at which point the first identified patient in the US had already arrived from Wuhan on January 15th. New Zealand first started restricting travel from China on February 3rd - around the same time the US and many other countries did the same. But because of the high level of travel between the US and China there were already multiple infected people in the US spread across multiple states.

We could have done better, but comparing one of the largest countries on earth to an isolated island nation like New Zealand or Iceland is disingenuous at best.

Why not. Both countries had community transmission of COVID, from that point on were completely comparable, unless you’re going to try and argue that the continued volume of COVID cases in the USA is entirely due to people crossing the Canada and Mexico border.

FWIW New Zealand also experiences high levels of travel between ourselves and China. Chinese visitors to NZ per year exceeds 10% of our population. That’s over 450,000 visitors from that region alone. In total we get 3.8 million international visitors per year. Just because we are geographically isolated does not mean we are isolated from the people of the world.

NZ has many advantages, such as a leader who is trusted and believes in the virus and people who believe in their government, but being an island with controllable access points is one of the largest.

Of course, England is also an island and it's doing shitty. A lot depends on how the populace is reacting and, in this, Americans and Brits are acting like children.

Correct, we have a leader who is largely trusted because they exhibit the required traits of a good leader. And that’s my point. Cooridinated leadership is what is required to deal with a global pandemic.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2020, 06:40:52 PM by gooki »

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #157 on: November 25, 2020, 06:30:16 PM »
[New Zealand has a bunch of attributes that would probably have allowed you guys to handle it well even with subpar leadership.

Sub par leadership in NZ would have resulted in UK levels of COVID deaths. there’s nothing magical about the people that live in New Zealand. We’re not an island of elves, dwarf, wizards and hobbits.
You don't think having roughly one tenth of the population density of the UK, and having essentially no populous neighbors one 2 hour train ride away could have something to do with it?

I don't think you realize quite how porous the borders in Europe are.

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #158 on: November 25, 2020, 06:37:00 PM »
No I don’t, because we’re comparing deaths per million people, not total number of deaths.

UKs leaders could easily have closed their borders to non essential people. Seriously it’s not that hard, and it doesn’t have to be perfect. Even our borders were breached, but we dealt with it. FWIW, I’m well traveled enough to know how easy it is to cross from one EU member country to another.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2020, 06:42:33 PM by gooki »

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #159 on: November 25, 2020, 06:47:22 PM »
Did NZ really lock down the borders? Because the EU and NAFTA kept the borders open for food and supplies.
Our customs boarders remained open. We shut our borders to non residents.

Did you even read the thread? You weren't letting truck drivers from China and Malaysia in, because you don't have roads to China and Malaysia.

Because Canada and the UK needed to let drivers from the US and France in in order to get food. Also, China handled the pandemic well so even if you had been letting a ton of Chinese in it probably wouldn't have been a problem.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2020, 06:50:49 PM by PDXTabs »

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #160 on: November 25, 2020, 06:56:45 PM »
[New Zealand has a bunch of attributes that would probably have allowed you guys to handle it well even with subpar leadership.

Sub par leadership in NZ would have resulted in UK levels of COVID deaths. there’s nothing magical about the people that live in New Zealand. We’re not an island of elves, dwarf, wizards and hobbits.

Are you sure? What if 500,000 Kiwis thought covid19 was a hoax created by communists/liberals/Jews/elderly billionaires? Or that it was real but the cities of Christchurch and Manukau decided that keeping bars and gyms and restaurants completely open was a better idea than shutting down? Or if Wellington shut down but armed protestors showed up at city hall to protest the decision?

Paper Chaser

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #161 on: November 25, 2020, 07:38:53 PM »

I have to call BS on this. No, a country of 330 million people with hundreds of international entry points cannot be reasonably compared to an isolated island nation of five million with a handful of international entry points.

Wuhan locked down January 23rd at which point the first identified patient in the US had already arrived from Wuhan on January 15th. New Zealand first started restricting travel from China on February 3rd - around the same time the US and many other countries did the same. But because of the high level of travel between the US and China there were already multiple infected people in the US spread across multiple states.

We could have done better, but comparing one of the largest countries on earth to an isolated island nation like New Zealand or Iceland is disingenuous at best.

Why not. Both countries had community transmission of COVID, from that point on were completely comparable, unless you’re going to try and argue that the continued volume of COVID cases in the USA is entirely due to people crossing the Canada and Mexico border.

FWIW New Zealand also experiences high levels of travel between ourselves and China. Chinese visitors to NZ per year exceeds 10% of our population. That’s over 450,000 visitors from that region alone. In total we get 3.8 million international visitors per year. Just because we are geographically isolated does not mean we are isolated from the people of the world.

Is domestic air travel common in NZ, or is it mostly international? Domestic travel is very common in the US in addition to the international travel due to the size of the country. LAX alone had over 88 million passengers in 2019. That's an average of almost 250k passengers per day and it's not even the busiest airport in the US. Plus, with the way that air travel works in the US, many passengers make stops in several different cities before reaching their destination. So that traveler from China may have originally come into LAX, and had to switch planes in 30 minutes where they flew to Denver, then Atlanta, then Austin within a few hours. Co mingling with others at each location of course. The same thing is happening simultaneously in NYCs various international airports and Chicago, and over 100 other international airports with European visitors and Canadian visitors, and South American visitors, etc. Tracing that many vectors through that many nodes with any accuracy or speed is pretty impossible.

The only way to have really shut it out would've been stopping all international travel at once before cases were in the triple digits, but that strands a whole lot of your citizens in other countries, and it locks out all of the people that live on one side of your border while working on the other. It's a whole lot easier to separate and screen a few flights per day of international travelers at 3 airports from 15 other nations than it is to do the same thing for hundreds of daily flights from 50 other nations at over 100 international airports spread out over thousands of miles, all while simultaneously closing down many thousands of miles of land borders. It's not even close to the same logistical problem.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2020, 07:41:02 PM by Paper Chaser »

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #162 on: November 25, 2020, 08:29:55 PM »

I have to call BS on this. No, a country of 330 million people with hundreds of international entry points cannot be reasonably compared to an isolated island nation of five million with a handful of international entry points.

Wuhan locked down January 23rd at which point the first identified patient in the US had already arrived from Wuhan on January 15th. New Zealand first started restricting travel from China on February 3rd - around the same time the US and many other countries did the same. But because of the high level of travel between the US and China there were already multiple infected people in the US spread across multiple states.

We could have done better, but comparing one of the largest countries on earth to an isolated island nation like New Zealand or Iceland is disingenuous at best.

Why not. Both countries had community transmission of COVID, from that point on were completely comparable, unless you’re going to try and argue that the continued volume of COVID cases in the USA is entirely due to people crossing the Canada and Mexico border.

FWIW New Zealand also experiences high levels of travel between ourselves and China. Chinese visitors to NZ per year exceeds 10% of our population. That’s over 450,000 visitors from that region alone. In total we get 3.8 million international visitors per year. Just because we are geographically isolated does not mean we are isolated from the people of the world.

Is domestic air travel common in NZ, or is it mostly international? Domestic travel is very common in the US in addition to the international travel due to the size of the country. LAX alone had over 88 million passengers in 2019. That's an average of almost 250k passengers per day and it's not even the busiest airport in the US. Plus, with the way that air travel works in the US, many passengers make stops in several different cities before reaching their destination. So that traveler from China may have originally come into LAX, and had to switch planes in 30 minutes where they flew to Denver, then Atlanta, then Austin within a few hours. Co mingling with others at each location of course. The same thing is happening simultaneously in NYCs various international airports and Chicago, and over 100 other international airports with European visitors and Canadian visitors, and South American visitors, etc. Tracing that many vectors through that many nodes with any accuracy or speed is pretty impossible.

The only way to have really shut it out would've been stopping all international travel at once before cases were in the triple digits, but that strands a whole lot of your citizens in other countries, and it locks out all of the people that live on one side of your border while working on the other. It's a whole lot easier to separate and screen a few flights per day of international travelers at 3 airports from 15 other nations than it is to do the same thing for hundreds of daily flights from 50 other nations at over 100 international airports spread out over thousands of miles, all while simultaneously closing down many thousands of miles of land borders. It's not even close to the same logistical problem.

I was there last year and it seemed to me that people fly a lot.  It's easier to travel by air than ferry to get from one island to the other.  Plus the International side of Auckland airport was packed with passengers from Asia.  Air New Zealand is now my favourite airline.  Airports I saw: Auckland, international and domestic, Wellington, Christchurch, Invercargill. 

ender

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #163 on: November 25, 2020, 09:18:05 PM »
It's not even close to the same logistical problem.

+100

The busiest airport in NZ would rank #29 on the list of airports in the USA by busiest (using not 2020 numbers, obviously). There are numerous American airports which have more international passengers alone than the busiest NZ airport has total passengers.

My state (which isn't even that big) has more people in it than NZ.

The USA has an overall population density that is 2x that of NZ. Its population is about 65x that of NZ.

The USA imports significantly more goods than NZ (about 60x more). The USA only exports about 45x as much as NZ.


And even ignoring the logistical differences, the United States is a government which has heavily distributed government at the state/local level. The federal government here can't, for example, just shut down the entire country. The president can't even issue a national mask mandate based on their powers let alone do the sorts of national lockdown that was done in NZ.

For better or worse this heavily restricts a coordinated federal response to covid.

Trump most certainly did things poorly in how he handled covid (or, rather, didn't) but most of the things people seem to have wanted him to do in 2020 were simply not viable legal options. Could he have provided leadership and centralized plans and worked with governors and state governments to try to have states all follow them? Sure.





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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #164 on: November 25, 2020, 09:20:33 PM »
New Zealand density per sq km map: http://infoshare.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/browse-categories/population/estimates-projections/SubnationalPopulationEstimates_AtJun17_MR3/map-snpe-30jun17-pop-density.png?h=716&w=500
 note the medium blue (100-200 per sq km)

US density per sq km map: https://www.mapbusinessonline.com/Content/images/map_gallery/usa-population-density.png
 note the darkest red (100-30,000 per sq km)

US and NZ land area for comparison:https://external-preview.redd.it/yalhG3bkQUJftNa8B0L7SbzFBvMqpQ1g4in1gsP02Bg.jpg?auto=webp&s=3b5f1f0a92fd70093f937fbc751faf6c2a45e29e

One can see how density (which is directly related to rate of spread for respiratory infection) creates two different problems for the two countries.

I decided to be a huge dork and made this graphic from the above maps.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2020, 09:33:11 PM by Abe »

gooki

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #165 on: November 26, 2020, 12:33:20 AM »
Quote
Is domestic air travel common in NZ, or is it mostly international?

We have 4-5 x domestic air travellers as we do international. That’s insane right, 4 flights a year for every resident.

Quote
So that traveler from China may have originally come into LAX, and had to switch planes in 30 minutes where they flew to Denver, then Atlanta, then Austin within a few hours.

Switching planes isn’t uncommon in NZ either. Most international travellers arrive in Auckland and the take a domestic flight to Wellington, Christchurch, or Queenstown. If your travel is poorly planned you may end up doing two domestic switches. But admittedly not as bonkers as it can get in the USA.

Quote
Tracing that many vectors through that many nodes with any accuracy or speed is pretty impossible.... It's a whole lot easier to separate and screen a few flights per day of international travelers at 3 airports from 15 other nations than it is to do the same thing for hundreds of daily flights from 50 other nations at over 100 international airports spread out over thousands of miles, all while simultaneously closing down many thousands of miles of land borders. It's not even close to the same logistical problem.

Why? Yes you have more nodes, but you also have proportionally more resources. Again re-enforcing my option that the greatest failure is a lack of coordinated leadership.

Quote
Are you sure? What if 500,000 Kiwis thought covid19 was a hoax created by communists/liberals/Jews/elderly billionaires?

Proportionally you bet we had circa 8,000 kiwis believing it was a hoax. One church group was entirely responsible for our second wave because the dumb fucks didn’t believe it, refused to get tested, and kept having mass gatherings when advised not too.

Quote
Or that it was real but the cities of Christchurch and Manukau decided that keeping bars and gyms and restaurants completely open was a better idea than shutting down?

Again back to my main point. The greatest failure of this pandemic is a lack of coordinated leadership.

Quote
Or if Wellington shut down but armed protestors showed up at city hall to protest the decision?

And that’s would be a reflection of poor leadership. Good leaders know how to communicate. Different people need different levels of communication, and that’s what NZ did right. It’s not that we simply made the tough decisions, it’s how they executed on those decision to ensure the public were informed and get maximum public buy in.

Quote
Because Canada and the UK needed to let drivers from the US and France in in order to get food.

Seriously it’s this one vector that cannot be solved?

Quote
China handled the pandemic well so even if you had been letting a ton of Chinese in it probably wouldn't have been a problem.

UK and USA visitors are number 3 and 4 on the list of countries with the most visitors to New Zealand.

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #166 on: November 26, 2020, 12:39:17 AM »
Quote
Because Canada and the UK needed to let drivers from the US and France in in order to get food.

Seriously it’s this one vector that cannot be solved?

You tell me. Canada, the UK, and New Zealand are all commonwealth countries with reasonably competent parliamentary democratic governments. What's your theory on the difference? Seriously, as a commonwealth citizen I want to know.

Quote
China handled the pandemic well so even if you had been letting a ton of Chinese in it probably wouldn't have been a problem.

UK and USA visitors are number 3 and 4 on the list of countries with the most visitors to New Zealand.

I'm confused what the point of this sentence is, can I come visit NZ on my US or UK passports right now?
« Last Edit: November 26, 2020, 12:43:49 AM by PDXTabs »

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #168 on: November 26, 2020, 06:51:43 AM »
We don't need your stinkin lockdowns!

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #169 on: November 26, 2020, 07:05:12 AM »
Maybe instead of comparing the US to NZ, which did have advantages that have not been mentioned here, compare the US to Canada. Both large countries with dense areas and low density areas, both with 3 levels of government where health care is a state/provincial responsibility so there are limits to what the feds can do.  Plus geographically close, so American cultural ideas easily spill over the border.  As in, QAnon, masks being an infringement on rights, ignore social gathering numbers for holidays (for us Thanksgiving and Halloween) and all the other dangerous nonsense.  Our numbers are much worse than NZ's, but much better than the US.  And per capita numbers are worst in Alberta, thanks to a right-wing oil loving social services slashing provincial governent.  Not to mention Ontario, with a Conservative government.

So many Ph. D theses will come out of all the analysis.

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #170 on: November 26, 2020, 07:35:36 AM »
Maybe instead of comparing the US to NZ, which did have advantages that have not been mentioned here, compare the US to Canada. Both large countries with dense areas and low density areas, both with 3 levels of government where health care is a state/provincial responsibility so there are limits to what the feds can do.  Plus geographically close, so American cultural ideas easily spill over the border.  As in, QAnon, masks being an infringement on rights, ignore social gathering numbers for holidays (for us Thanksgiving and Halloween) and all the other dangerous nonsense.  Our numbers are much worse than NZ's, but much better than the US.  And per capita numbers are worst in Alberta, thanks to a right-wing oil loving social services slashing provincial governent.  Not to mention Ontario, with a Conservative government.

So many Ph. D theses will come out of all the analysis.

Numbers are worse in Alberta because the conservative leaders refuse to lock down anything of consequence.  Bars/restaurants remain open, despite hospitals being filled to overflowing with covid patients.  The leadership of Alberta has mentioned repeatedly that they believe the economic damage of a lockdown is not worth the benefit of lives saved.  Guess we'll see how that plays out for them.

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #171 on: November 26, 2020, 08:44:20 AM »
Maybe instead of comparing the US to NZ, which did have advantages that have not been mentioned here, compare the US to Canada. Both large countries with dense areas and low density areas, both with 3 levels of government where health care is a state/provincial responsibility so there are limits to what the feds can do.  Plus geographically close, so American cultural ideas easily spill over the border.  As in, QAnon, masks being an infringement on rights, ignore social gathering numbers for holidays (for us Thanksgiving and Halloween) and all the other dangerous nonsense.  Our numbers are much worse than NZ's, but much better than the US.  And per capita numbers are worst in Alberta, thanks to a right-wing oil loving social services slashing provincial governent.  Not to mention Ontario, with a Conservative government.

So many Ph. D theses will come out of all the analysis.
I would think Europe might be the best comparison to the us? Countries the size of our states that have easy / common travel between and each one with different rules.


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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #172 on: November 26, 2020, 09:14:37 AM »
I have a theory, may or may not be right, that when the pandemic started there was an expectation of CDC leadership, based on their effective leadership in previous pandemics, the latest being ebola.  The CDC allowed itself to be hamstrung for weeks on what it said by Trump (plus thoroughly effed up on testing) while everyone else, including the WHO, waited for them to take action, meaning that nothing much happened anywhere in the world until late February/March, by which time it was pretty much too late for countries with high levels of international travel.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #173 on: November 26, 2020, 10:09:22 AM »
Maybe instead of comparing the US to NZ, which did have advantages that have not been mentioned here, compare the US to Canada. Both large countries with dense areas and low density areas, both with 3 levels of government where health care is a state/provincial responsibility so there are limits to what the feds can do.  Plus geographically close, so American cultural ideas easily spill over the border.  As in, QAnon, masks being an infringement on rights, ignore social gathering numbers for holidays (for us Thanksgiving and Halloween) and all the other dangerous nonsense.  Our numbers are much worse than NZ's, but much better than the US.  And per capita numbers are worst in Alberta, thanks to a right-wing oil loving social services slashing provincial governent.  Not to mention Ontario, with a Conservative government.

So many Ph. D theses will come out of all the analysis.
I would think Europe might be the best comparison to the us? Countries the size of our states that have easy / common travel between and each one with different rules.

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We have big provinces and little provinces plus 3 territories, and health is a provincial responsibility so 13 sets of rules, plus only 2 languages, the more common one being English.  Plus provincial Conservative parties that follow the US Republican example.

All the above is why I thought the comparison was useful. But sure, you can look at Europe, or Asia, or Africa, or South America, its all over.


Sorry, I'm on my tablet and can't fix the quoting, will later.  Done.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2020, 02:09:48 PM by RetiredAt63 »

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #174 on: November 26, 2020, 10:55:32 AM »
And this: Supreme Court Blocks Covid-19 Restrictions on Religious Services in New York.

The high bench struck the balance in favor of the First Amendment's Free Exercise Clause.

Restrictive measures to counter  a pandemic epitomize legitimate exercise of the States' police power but no matter how direly  consequential or  deadly, a pandemic  is not sufficiently compelling to warrant quarantining constitutional guarantees.


"Even in a pandemic, the Constitution cannot be put away and forgotten....The restrictions at issue here, by effectively barring many from attending religious services, strike at the very heart of the First Amendment’s guarantee of religious liberty." This quote is from the Court's "unsigned, majority  opinion."


"It is time – past time – to make plain that, while the pandemic poses many grave challenges, there is no world in which the Constitution tolerates color-coded executive edicts that reopen liquor stores and bike shops but shutter churches, synagogues, and mosques."  Justice Gorsuch




"It is a significant matter to override determinations made by public health officials concerning what is necessary for public safety in the midst of a deadly pandemic." C.J. Roberts

"According to experts, the risk of transmission is higher when people are in close contact with one another for prolonged periods of time, particularly indoors or in other enclosed spaces...The nature of the epidemic, the spikes, the uncertainties, and the need for quick action, taken together, mean that the state has countervailing arguments based upon health, safety, and administrative considerations that must be balanced against the applicants’ First Amendment challenges." Justice Breyer
« Last Edit: November 26, 2020, 02:36:15 PM by John Galt incarnate! »

bacchi

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #175 on: November 26, 2020, 11:10:12 AM »
Maybe instead of comparing the US to NZ, which did have advantages that have not been mentioned here, compare the US to Canada. Both large countries with dense areas and low density areas, both with 3 levels of government where health care is a state/provincial responsibility so there are limits to what the feds can do.  Plus geographically close, so American cultural ideas easily spill over the border.  As in, QAnon, masks being an infringement on rights, ignore social gathering numbers for holidays (for us Thanksgiving and Halloween) and all the other dangerous nonsense.  Our numbers are much worse than NZ's, but much better than the US.  And per capita numbers are worst in Alberta, thanks to a right-wing oil loving social services slashing provincial governent.  Not to mention Ontario, with a Conservative government.

So many Ph. D theses will come out of all the analysis.
I would think Europe might be the best comparison to the us? Countries the size of our states that have easy / common travel between and each one with different rules.

We have big provinces and little provinces plus 3 territories, and health is a provincial responsibility so 13 sets of rules, plus only 2 languages, the more common one being English.  Plus provincial Conservative parties that follow the US Republican example.

All the above is why I thought the comparison was useful. But sure, you can look at Europe, or Asia, or Africa, or South America, its all over.

It is useful.

The US has more states/provinces like Alberta and far more Qanon than anywhere else, proportionately. All of the midwest initially thought it was a Big City coastal problem.

Quote from: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/south-dakota-covid-kristi-noem-mask-mandate/
South Dakota has reported more COVID-19 deaths per capita over the last week than anywhere else in the country, and it has the highest per capita rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations.
[...]
Back in Sioux Falls [which now has a non-legal mask mandate], the mayor has taken heat for his response to questions about why so many people don't want to wear a mask. "This is cowboy country, man," TenHaken said. "And you try and tell someone to do something and they want to do the opposite."

It's also important to note that South Dakota citizens aren't calling for their governor to resign. "Leadership" is a nice thought but they have the government they want.


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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #176 on: November 26, 2020, 11:41:41 AM »
It's also important to note that South Dakota citizens aren't calling for their governor to resign. "Leadership" is a nice thought but they have the government they want deserve.

:P

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #177 on: November 26, 2020, 12:31:51 PM »
And this: Supreme Court Blocks Covid-19 Restrictions on Religious Services in New York.

The high bench struck the balance in favor of the First Amendment's Free Exercise Clause.

Yes, but they didn't have to, because the clause reads Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances..

But in this context congress means the US congress, which is why historically the SCOTUS has not chosen to strike down state measures on public health.

So while I don't necessarily disagree with the sentiment, I'm also not convinced that it was good law.

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #178 on: November 26, 2020, 12:52:20 PM »
It's also important to note that South Dakota citizens aren't calling for their governor to resign. "Leadership" is a nice thought but they have the government they want deserve.

:P

So I guess “leadership” is a code word for telling folks what to do even if they aren’t interested? If so, I I’ll take a pass on this “leadership” thing. Just seems like a prettied up version of authoritarianism.

 I don’t happen to agree with how South Dakotans are dealing with this, but it’s ultimately their call and they bear the bulk of the consequences.

I just find it interesting how democratic ideals are vaunted on the one hand, but ignored when we don’t agree with the process or results. 

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #179 on: November 26, 2020, 02:08:43 PM »
And this: Supreme Court Blocks Covid-19 Restrictions on Religious Services in New York.

The high bench struck the balance in favor of the First Amendment's Free Exercise Clause.

Yes, but they didn't have to, because the clause reads Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances..

But in this context congress means the US congress, which is why historically the SCOTUS has not chosen to strike down state measures on public health.

So while I don't necessarily disagree with the sentiment, I'm also not convinced that it was good law.

In this context, of a State-enacted restriction of  the free exercise of religion,  "Congress" actually does mean more than the word itself.

Under the Incorporation Doctrine,  the 14th Amendment's Due Process Clause applies to the States the rights enshrined in  the  Bill of Rights.

The Incorporation Doctrine means  that constitutional protections that proscribe  congressional acts that abridge these  liberties  also forbid acts of the States and their  political subdivisions from doing the same.

Under the Incorporation Doctrine the word "Congress" in the First Amendment is not exclusive to Congress. Incorporation of our First Amendment rights  actually means "Congress and the States and their political subdivisions shall make no law" __________.

Incorporation's protections are as crucial as they are  logical.

The guarantees of our rights would not be worth the parchment they are printed on if the Bill of Rights prohibited certain, encroaching  acts of Congress while not prohibiting  them if enacted by the States or  their political subdivisions.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2020, 07:28:35 PM by John Galt incarnate! »

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #180 on: November 27, 2020, 01:35:19 AM »
OK. Compare the US to Australia then, if you don't want to compare yourselves with NZ (which is doing better than us). We are repatriating citizens all the time, because many of our citizens are still stuck overseas. We have diplomats flying in all the time - many with covid, who then isolate at their embassies. Many people arriving here have covid, and our outbreaks have come from arrivals spreading it to the community in dense parts of cities.

Australia has a similar land area to the contiguous US. We do have a much smaller population BUT our population is one of the most urbanised in the world, and we have very few people in most of our landmass. If covid19 got into our rural and remote communities we would have a lot of deaths because those areas don't have their own services - they have a Flying Doctor service, where doctors in small airplanes land on remote landing strips and then the patients are treated or flown for hours to the nearest hospital. Our large cities do have millions of people (Sydney and Melbourne both have more than 4 million) even though we have less than 10 large cities. 28% or our population are from other countries - many more than the US. The Sydney to Melbourne air route was the second biggest in the world (pre covid19).

Like the US, all our states and territories make their own rules. We manufacture very little, so we import a lot of stuff (like NZ) - much more than the US per head of population. We are also a food bowl (like NZ), and we have a huge mining industry so we export a lot of stuff, and this is continuing throughout the pandemic.

Anyone can be tested - and everyone is encouraged to test even where I live, where there has been no community covid19 for about 200 days. We do have really good contact tracing - but that can only happen because they don't have that many people to trace. Our leaders are prepared to shut down hot spots when there are outbreaks. Last week there were 17 cases in a state because it escaped quarantine again. More than 4000 people were tested as a result. The neighbouring states shut down their borders. People in that city were put into lockdown for a few days.

We take it seriously. Leadership trust is making a big difference.

the_fixer

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #181 on: November 27, 2020, 06:07:59 AM »
OK. Compare the US to Australia then, if you don't want to compare yourselves with NZ (which is doing better than us). We are repatriating citizens all the time, because many of our citizens are still stuck overseas. We have diplomats flying in all the time - many with covid, who then isolate at their embassies. Many people arriving here have covid, and our outbreaks have come from arrivals spreading it to the community in dense parts of cities.

Australia has a similar land area to the contiguous US. We do have a much smaller population BUT our population is one of the most urbanised in the world, and we have very few people in most of our landmass. If covid19 got into our rural and remote communities we would have a lot of deaths because those areas don't have their own services - they have a Flying Doctor service, where doctors in small airplanes land on remote landing strips and then the patients are treated or flown for hours to the nearest hospital. Our large cities do have millions of people (Sydney and Melbourne both have more than 4 million) even though we have less than 10 large cities. 28% or our population are from other countries - many more than the US. The Sydney to Melbourne air route was the second biggest in the world (pre covid19).

Like the US, all our states and territories make their own rules. We manufacture very little, so we import a lot of stuff (like NZ) - much more than the US per head of population. We are also a food bowl (like NZ), and we have a huge mining industry so we export a lot of stuff, and this is continuing throughout the pandemic.

Anyone can be tested - and everyone is encouraged to test even where I live, where there has been no community covid19 for about 200 days. We do have really good contact tracing - but that can only happen because they don't have that many people to trace. Our leaders are prepared to shut down hot spots when there are outbreaks. Last week there were 17 cases in a state because it escaped quarantine again. More than 4000 people were tested as a result. The neighbouring states shut down their borders. People in that city were put into lockdown for a few days.

We take it seriously. Leadership trust is making a big difference.

I think Australia has done a great job and the US has done a horrible job but I do not think they are a good comparison to each other.

Australia has ~25 million people in ~7.7 mIllion square KM and while they have dense cities they are very distanced. Also climate is significantly different and it is an island.

US has ~333 million people in ~9.8 million square KM and we are spread out with little cities just miles apart across the entire country. 


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RetiredAt63

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #182 on: November 27, 2020, 08:11:29 AM »
OK. Compare the US to Australia then, if you don't want to compare yourselves with NZ (which is doing better than us). We are repatriating citizens all the time, because many of our citizens are still stuck overseas. We have diplomats flying in all the time - many with covid, who then isolate at their embassies. Many people arriving here have covid, and our outbreaks have come from arrivals spreading it to the community in dense parts of cities.

Australia has a similar land area to the contiguous US. We do have a much smaller population BUT our population is one of the most urbanised in the world, and we have very few people in most of our landmass. If covid19 got into our rural and remote communities we would have a lot of deaths because those areas don't have their own services - they have a Flying Doctor service, where doctors in small airplanes land on remote landing strips and then the patients are treated or flown for hours to the nearest hospital. Our large cities do have millions of people (Sydney and Melbourne both have more than 4 million) even though we have less than 10 large cities. 28% or our population are from other countries - many more than the US. The Sydney to Melbourne air route was the second biggest in the world (pre covid19).

Like the US, all our states and territories make their own rules. We manufacture very little, so we import a lot of stuff (like NZ) - much more than the US per head of population. We are also a food bowl (like NZ), and we have a huge mining industry so we export a lot of stuff, and this is continuing throughout the pandemic.

Anyone can be tested - and everyone is encouraged to test even where I live, where there has been no community covid19 for about 200 days. We do have really good contact tracing - but that can only happen because they don't have that many people to trace. Our leaders are prepared to shut down hot spots when there are outbreaks. Last week there were 17 cases in a state because it escaped quarantine again. More than 4000 people were tested as a result. The neighbouring states shut down their borders. People in that city were put into lockdown for a few days.

We take it seriously. Leadership trust is making a big difference.

I think Australia has done a great job and the US has done a horrible job but I do not think they are a good comparison to each other.

Australia has ~25 million people in ~7.7 mIllion square KM and while they have dense cities they are very distanced. Also climate is significantly different and it is an island.

US has ~333 million people in ~9.8 million square KM and we are spread out with little cities just miles apart across the entire country. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Seriously you have little cities spread out just miles apart across the entire country?  You have huge areas with very low population density, just like Australia and Canada have dense urban areas, less dense areas, and really sparse areas.  What map are you looking at?

If you want lots of little cities just miles apart, that describes any urban area, big city plus satellite cities.

Why the fixation on Europe?  They are totally autonomous countries.  The US, Canada and Australia all have the 3 tier level of government with health care being the responsibility of the middle tier, and overall strategy being the responsibility of the top tier.

ender

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #183 on: November 27, 2020, 09:09:54 AM »
Seriously you have little cities spread out just miles apart across the entire country?  You have huge areas with very low population density, just like Australia and Canada have dense urban areas, less dense areas, and really sparse areas.  What map are you looking at?

If you want lots of little cities just miles apart, that describes any urban area, big city plus satellite cities.

Why the fixation on Europe?  They are totally autonomous countries.  The US, Canada and Australia all have the 3 tier level of government with health care being the responsibility of the middle tier, and overall strategy being the responsibility of the top tier.

People in this thread seem to consistently misunderstand how the American governmental system works.

The federal government does not have the ability to mandate to the states how they should handle responses to covid. The president, for example, can't even legally issue a mask mandate let alone dictate a cohesive strategic response.

In the USA, states are incredibly independent - by design.

Trump certainly could have been a leader more and recommended various things to states. But there's really no way for him or arguably even congress to dictate to the entire 50 states a consistent covid response.

It's why people reference Europe vs other countries when discussing the USA and its response to covid, because the USA just isn't a top down country when it comes to a huge percentage of policy. There are extremely clear lines as to what the federal government can and cannot do.

There's a separate conversation about whether this separation of powers is good or not. Either way it's certainly the case now and it's a bit perplexing to me how many people do not seem to understand the actual federal vs states responsibilities in the USA (not just you @RetiredAt63, this whole thread is full of this perspective and in fact was created out of a fundamental misunderstanding of state vs federal responsibilities in the USA).

OtherJen

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #184 on: November 27, 2020, 09:51:29 AM »
Seriously you have little cities spread out just miles apart across the entire country?  You have huge areas with very low population density, just like Australia and Canada have dense urban areas, less dense areas, and really sparse areas.  What map are you looking at?

If you want lots of little cities just miles apart, that describes any urban area, big city plus satellite cities.

Why the fixation on Europe?  They are totally autonomous countries.  The US, Canada and Australia all have the 3 tier level of government with health care being the responsibility of the middle tier, and overall strategy being the responsibility of the top tier.

People in this thread seem to consistently misunderstand how the American governmental system works.

The federal government does not have the ability to mandate to the states how they should handle responses to covid. The president, for example, can't even legally issue a mask mandate let alone dictate a cohesive strategic response.

In the USA, states are incredibly independent - by design.

Trump certainly could have been a leader more and recommended various things to states. But there's really no way for him or arguably even congress to dictate to the entire 50 states a consistent covid response.

It's why people reference Europe vs other countries when discussing the USA and its response to covid, because the USA just isn't a top down country when it comes to a huge percentage of policy. There are extremely clear lines as to what the federal government can and cannot do.

There's a separate conversation about whether this separation of powers is good or not. Either way it's certainly the case now and it's a bit perplexing to me how many people do not seem to understand the actual federal vs states responsibilities in the USA (not just you @RetiredAt63, this whole thread is full of this perspective and in fact was created out of a fundamental misunderstanding of state vs federal responsibilities in the USA).

This. And it's why a comparison to the EU, with its member-states, is a bit more appropriate than a comparison to NZ or Australia (besides the obvious difference in population size; the total population of NZ is just over half the population of my state alone).

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #185 on: November 27, 2020, 10:37:31 AM »
Why the fixation on Europe?  They are totally autonomous countries.  The US, Canada and Australia all have the 3 tier level of government with health care being the responsibility of the middle tier, and overall strategy being the responsibility of the top tier.

What? No one in the USA is responsible for health care. Seriously, it's a dystopian failed state at this point.

bacchi

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #186 on: November 27, 2020, 10:48:27 AM »
It's also important to note that South Dakota citizens aren't calling for their governor to resign. "Leadership" is a nice thought but they have the government they want deserve.

:P

So I guess “leadership” is a code word for telling folks what to do even if they aren’t interested?

No, it's not. You misread the sub-thread.


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Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #187 on: November 27, 2020, 10:50:15 AM »
OK. Compare the US to Australia then, if you don't want to compare yourselves with NZ (which is doing better than us). We are repatriating citizens all the time, because many of our citizens are still stuck overseas. We have diplomats flying in all the time - many with covid, who then isolate at their embassies. Many people arriving here have covid, and our outbreaks have come from arrivals spreading it to the community in dense parts of cities.

Australia has a similar land area to the contiguous US. We do have a much smaller population BUT our population is one of the most urbanised in the world, and we have very few people in most of our landmass. If covid19 got into our rural and remote communities we would have a lot of deaths because those areas don't have their own services - they have a Flying Doctor service, where doctors in small airplanes land on remote landing strips and then the patients are treated or flown for hours to the nearest hospital. Our large cities do have millions of people (Sydney and Melbourne both have more than 4 million) even though we have less than 10 large cities. 28% or our population are from other countries - many more than the US. The Sydney to Melbourne air route was the second biggest in the world (pre covid19).

Like the US, all our states and territories make their own rules. We manufacture very little, so we import a lot of stuff (like NZ) - much more than the US per head of population. We are also a food bowl (like NZ), and we have a huge mining industry so we export a lot of stuff, and this is continuing throughout the pandemic.

Anyone can be tested - and everyone is encouraged to test even where I live, where there has been no community covid19 for about 200 days. We do have really good contact tracing - but that can only happen because they don't have that many people to trace. Our leaders are prepared to shut down hot spots when there are outbreaks. Last week there were 17 cases in a state because it escaped quarantine again. More than 4000 people were tested as a result. The neighbouring states shut down their borders. People in that city were put into lockdown for a few days.

We take it seriously. Leadership trust is making a big difference.

I think Australia has done a great job and the US has done a horrible job but I do not think they are a good comparison to each other.

Australia has ~25 million people in ~7.7 mIllion square KM and while they have dense cities they are very distanced. Also climate is significantly different and it is an island.

US has ~333 million people in ~9.8 million square KM and we are spread out with little cities just miles apart across the entire country. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Seriously you have little cities spread out just miles apart across the entire country?  You have huge areas with very low population density, just like Australia and Canada have dense urban areas, less dense areas, and really sparse areas.  What map are you looking at?

If you want lots of little cities just miles apart, that describes any urban area, big city plus satellite cities.

Why the fixation on Europe?  They are totally autonomous countries.  The US, Canada and Australia all have the 3 tier level of government with health care being the responsibility of the middle tier, and overall strategy being the responsibility of the top tier.

 I think you underestimate how little un inhabited area is located in the continental US and how many people live in rural areas creating a web of communities and roads that cover pretty much the entirety of the land mass.

Since you want a map how about a light pollution map

https://www.lightpollutionmap.info/#zoom=1.30&lat=14.7492&lon=14.5351&layers=B0FFFFFTFFFFFFFFFF

https://blue-marble.de/nightlights/2012

www.sciencealert.com/light-pollution-is-a-huge-problem-and-there-s-few-places-left-in-the-us-without-it/amp

And here is one for population. The dots for cities is pretty telling

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapping-population-density-dot-town/


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« Last Edit: November 27, 2020, 02:15:45 PM by the_fixer »

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #188 on: November 27, 2020, 11:42:53 AM »
Quote from: ender link=topic=119135.msg2741745#msg2741745

People in this thread seem to consistently misunderstand how the American governmental system works.

The federal government does not have the ability to mandate to the states how they should handle responses to covid. The president, for example, can't even legally issue a mask mandate let alone dictate a cohesive strategic response.

In the USA, states are incredibly independent - by design.

Trump certainly could have been a leader more and recommended various things to states. But there's really no way for him or arguably even congress to dictate to the entire 50 states a consistent covid response.

It's why people reference Europe vs other countries when discussing the USA and its response to covid, because the USA just isn't a top down country when it comes to a huge percentage of policy. There are extremely clear lines as to what the federal government can and cannot do.

There's a separate conversation about whether this separation of powers is good or not. Either way it's certainly the case now and it's a bit perplexing to me how many people do not seem to understand the actual federal vs states responsibilities in the USA (not just you @RetiredAt63, this whole thread is full of this perspective and in fact was created out of a fundamental misunderstanding of state vs federal responsibilities in the USA).




I am an avid, uncompromising  exponent of federalism.

Are you (ender and anyone else) a federalist?

I know RSM  is.


My favorite explication of federalism is Justice Hugo Black's reverential embrace of it  in Younger.



Younger v. Harris (1971)


This underlying reason for restraining courts of equity from interfering with criminal prosecutions is reinforced by an even more vital consideration, the notion of "comity," that is, a proper respect for state functions, a recognition of the fact that the entire country is made up of a Union of separate state governments, and a continuance of the belief that the National Government will fare best if the States and their institutions are left free to perform their separate functions in their separate ways.


This, perhaps for lack of a better and clearer way to describe it, is referred to by many as "Our Federalism," and one familiar with the profound debates that ushered our Federal Constitution into existence is bound to respect those who remain loyal to the ideals and dreams of "Our Federalism."

The concept does not mean blind deference to "States' Rights" any more than it means centralization of control over every important issue in our National Government and its courts.

The Framers rejected both these courses.

What the concept does represent is a system in which there is sensitivity to the legitimate interests of both State and National Governments, and in which the National Government, anxious though it may be to vindicate and protect federal rights and federal interests, always endeavors to do so in ways that will not unduly interfere with the legitimate activities of the States.

It should never be forgotten that this slogan, "Our Federalism," born in the early struggling days of our Union of States, occupies a highly important place in our Nation's history and its future.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2020, 11:58:16 AM by John Galt incarnate! »

RetiredAt63

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #189 on: November 27, 2020, 12:12:22 PM »
@ender and others   Re what your federal government can and cannot do, there also seems to be misunderstandings the other way. 

Our Prime Minister CAN NOT MAKE PEOPLE do anything re health initiatives, just like the US President cannot make people do anything.  It is up to our PROVINCIAL governments.  This is why I keep talking about a 3 tier system (federal, provincial/state, munical).  What our federal government can do is lead by example, and do a pile of country-wide financial support.  So Trudeau and Parliament wear masks and social distance to be good examples, and support vaccine research and reserve vaccine production and do financial support (like CERB) and control foreign entry, because those are things the federal government can do.  It is telling that the 3 worst provinces all have conservative governments (Alberta, Ontario, Quebec, Quebec's CAQ government is conservative).  NS, NB, PEI and Newfounland and Labrador have worked together to keep case loads low.

And our rural areas are pretty similar to the US, small towns connected by roads.  It may not be as obvious further north because most of our population is close to the border.


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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #190 on: November 27, 2020, 12:26:25 PM »
Our Prime Minister CAN NOT MAKE PEOPLE do anything re health initiatives, just like the US President cannot make people do anything.  It is up to our PROVINCIAL governments.  This is why I keep talking about a 3 tier system (federal, provincial/state, munical).  What our federal government can do is lead by example, and do a pile of country-wide financial support.  So Trudeau and Parliament wear masks and social distance to be good examples, and support vaccine research and reserve vaccine production and do financial support (like CERB) and control foreign entry, because those are things the federal government can do....

I had to check, but I just noticed that your Liberals don't currently hold a majority in parliament. So, as a thought experiment, imagine that they did. Like in the UK, where the Tories have a healthy majority in the lower house.

With a healthy majority in the lower house in a parliamentary democracy you can get shit done. Neither the UK House of Lords nor the Canadian Senate would block public health legislation during a global pandemic. This is very different from the US system where we have a strong Senate and a separate strong executive. Good luck getting anything done.

To me, that is the single largest failing of the US system. It was designed with the intent of stopping bad legislation more than passing good legislation.

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #191 on: November 27, 2020, 01:19:27 PM »
OK. Compare the US to Australia then, if you don't want to compare yourselves with NZ (which is doing better than us). We are repatriating citizens all the time, because many of our citizens are still stuck overseas. We have diplomats flying in all the time - many with covid, who then isolate at their embassies. Many people arriving here have covid, and our outbreaks have come from arrivals spreading it to the community in dense parts of cities.

Australia has a similar land area to the contiguous US. We do have a much smaller population BUT our population is one of the most urbanised in the world, and we have very few people in most of our landmass. If covid19 got into our rural and remote communities we would have a lot of deaths because those areas don't have their own services - they have a Flying Doctor service, where doctors in small airplanes land on remote landing strips and then the patients are treated or flown for hours to the nearest hospital. Our large cities do have millions of people (Sydney and Melbourne both have more than 4 million) even though we have less than 10 large cities. 28% or our population are from other countries - many more than the US. The Sydney to Melbourne air route was the second biggest in the world (pre covid19).

Like the US, all our states and territories make their own rules. We manufacture very little, so we import a lot of stuff (like NZ) - much more than the US per head of population. We are also a food bowl (like NZ), and we have a huge mining industry so we export a lot of stuff, and this is continuing throughout the pandemic.

Anyone can be tested - and everyone is encouraged to test even where I live, where there has been no community covid19 for about 200 days. We do have really good contact tracing - but that can only happen because they don't have that many people to trace. Our leaders are prepared to shut down hot spots when there are outbreaks. Last week there were 17 cases in a state because it escaped quarantine again. More than 4000 people were tested as a result. The neighbouring states shut down their borders. People in that city were put into lockdown for a few days.

We take it seriously. Leadership trust is making a big difference.

I think Australia has done a great job and the US has done a horrible job but I do not think they are a good comparison to each other.

Australia has ~25 million people in ~7.7 mIllion square KM and while they have dense cities they are very distanced. Also climate is significantly different and it is an island.

US has ~333 million people in ~9.8 million square KM and we are spread out with little cities just miles apart across the entire country. 


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Seriously you have little cities spread out just miles apart across the entire country?  You have huge areas with very low population density, just like Australia and Canada have dense urban areas, less dense areas, and really sparse areas.  What map are you looking at?

If you want lots of little cities just miles apart, that describes any urban area, big city plus satellite cities.

Why the fixation on Europe?  They are totally autonomous countries.  The US, Canada and Australia all have the 3 tier level of government with health care being the responsibility of the middle tier, and overall strategy being the responsibility of the top tier.

 I think you underestimate how little un inhabited area is located in the continental US and how many people live in rural areas creating a web of communities and roads that cover pretty much the entirety of the land mass.

Since you want a map how about a light pollution map

https://www.lightpollutionmap.info/#zoom=1.30&lat=14.7492&lon=14.5351&layers=B0FFFFFTFFFFFFFFFF

https://blue-marble.de/nightlights/2012

http://www.lightpollution.it/download/mondo_ridotto0p25.gi

www.sciencealert.com/light-pollution-is-a-huge-problem-and-there-s-few-places-left-in-the-us-without-it/amp

And here is one for population. The dots for cities is pretty telling

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapping-population-density-dot-town/


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That is truly horrifying.

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #192 on: November 27, 2020, 01:21:24 PM »
The three tier system in both Canada and Australia was copied from the US. The senate in Australia has been known to create constitutional crises at inconvenient times - after all, this is the type of time that everyone isn't necessarily going in the same direction. I don't know about the Canadian one.

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #193 on: November 27, 2020, 02:14:50 PM »
Our Prime Minister CAN NOT MAKE PEOPLE do anything re health initiatives, just like the US President cannot make people do anything.  It is up to our PROVINCIAL governments.  This is why I keep talking about a 3 tier system (federal, provincial/state, munical).  What our federal government can do is lead by example, and do a pile of country-wide financial support.  So Trudeau and Parliament wear masks and social distance to be good examples, and support vaccine research and reserve vaccine production and do financial support (like CERB) and control foreign entry, because those are things the federal government can do....

I had to check, but I just noticed that your Liberals don't currently hold a majority in parliament. So, as a thought experiment, imagine that they did. Like in the UK, where the Tories have a healthy majority in the lower house.

With a healthy majority in the lower house in a parliamentary democracy you can get shit done. Neither the UK House of Lords nor the Canadian Senate would block public health legislation during a global pandemic. This is very different from the US system where we have a strong Senate and a separate strong executive. Good luck getting anything done.

To me, that is the single largest failing of the US system. It was designed with the intent of stopping bad legislation more than passing good legislation.

Yes we have a minority government.  They still govern with the cooperation of other parties, right now the NDP.  They are passing legislation.  When they lose a vote of confidence (I.e. lose a money vote) we will have another election.

However, minority or majority, THEY ARE NOT IN CHARGE OF HEALTH CARE. Sorry to yell, but I have said this multiple times.  If they did that the Provinces would kick up a huge ruckus.

The BNA Act listed the powers of the federal government and the Provinces, with anything left out going to the Provinces.  That is why we have 13 health setups and 13 educational setups.  They are both provincial under the BNA Act.  The Provinces guard what is theirs just as strongly as your states guard what is theirs.  After all, the original provinces were separate mostly self-governing colonies before they joined together, and they certainly weren't going to give anything up. 

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #194 on: November 27, 2020, 02:16:58 PM »
New Zealand density per sq km map: http://infoshare.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/browse-categories/population/estimates-projections/SubnationalPopulationEstimates_AtJun17_MR3/map-snpe-30jun17-pop-density.png?h=716&w=500
 note the medium blue (100-200 per sq km)

US density per sq km map: https://www.mapbusinessonline.com/Content/images/map_gallery/usa-population-density.png
 note the darkest red (100-30,000 per sq km)

US and NZ land area for comparison:https://external-preview.redd.it/yalhG3bkQUJftNa8B0L7SbzFBvMqpQ1g4in1gsP02Bg.jpg?auto=webp&s=3b5f1f0a92fd70093f937fbc751faf6c2a45e29e

One can see how density (which is directly related to rate of spread for respiratory infection) creates two different problems for the two countries.

I decided to be a huge dork and made this graphic from the above maps.

Very cool map - thanks!

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #195 on: November 27, 2020, 02:30:04 PM »
Yes we have a minority government.  They still govern with the cooperation of other parties, right now the NDP.  They are passing legislation.  When they lose a vote of confidence (I.e. lose a money vote) we will have another election.

However, minority or majority, THEY ARE NOT IN CHARGE OF HEALTH CARE. Sorry to yell, but I have said this multiple times.  If they did that the Provinces would kick up a huge ruckus.

The BNA Act listed the powers of the federal government and the Provinces, with anything left out going to the Provinces.  That is why we have 13 health setups and 13 educational setups.  They are both provincial under the BNA Act.  The Provinces guard what is theirs just as strongly as your states guard what is theirs.  After all, the original provinces were separate mostly self-governing colonies before they joined together, and they certainly weren't going to give anything up.

Yes, and? The BNA Act and be modified with a simple majority in that parliament that you just mentioned, right? That is fundamentally different that the US system.

I don't see how this is different than devolved authority in Scotland. They have devolved authority, but only because the House of Commons in Westminster gave it to them.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2020, 02:31:38 PM by PDXTabs »

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #196 on: November 27, 2020, 02:48:45 PM »
Yes we have a minority government.  They still govern with the cooperation of other parties, right now the NDP.  They are passing legislation.  When they lose a vote of confidence (I.e. lose a money vote) we will have another election.

However, minority or majority, THEY ARE NOT IN CHARGE OF HEALTH CARE. Sorry to yell, but I have said this multiple times.  If they did that the Provinces would kick up a huge ruckus.

The BNA Act listed the powers of the federal government and the Provinces, with anything left out going to the Provinces.  That is why we have 13 health setups and 13 educational setups.  They are both provincial under the BNA Act.  The Provinces guard what is theirs just as strongly as your states guard what is theirs.  After all, the original provinces were separate mostly self-governing colonies before they joined together, and they certainly weren't going to give anything up.

Yes, and? The BNA Act and be modified with a simple majority in that parliament that you just mentioned, right? That is fundamentally different that the US system.

I don't see how this is different than devolved authority in Scotland. They have devolved authority, but only because the House of Commons in Westminster gave it to them.
And the practical difference is what?  Until the change happens, nothing.  And will the change ever happen?  No.

I understand, theoretically, that the US Constitution is emotionally important to its citizens.  But the idea that it is particularly wonderful doesn't really play in other democracies, particularly after we've seen what Trump has been able to do under it.

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #197 on: November 27, 2020, 02:54:46 PM »
And the practical difference is what?  Until the change happens, nothing.  And will the change ever happen?  No.

You think that if some provinces just refused to implement the Canada Health Act nothing would happen? Because that's exactly what happened with Obamacare. There are still multiple states that never expanded medicaid.

Likewise, if one of Canada's provinces looked like North Dakota right now, you think that the Parliament wouldn't step in? I'm leery of that claim.

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #198 on: November 27, 2020, 02:56:28 PM »
Yes we have a minority government.  They still govern with the cooperation of other parties, right now the NDP.  They are passing legislation.  When they lose a vote of confidence (I.e. lose a money vote) we will have another election.

However, minority or majority, THEY ARE NOT IN CHARGE OF HEALTH CARE. Sorry to yell, but I have said this multiple times.  If they did that the Provinces would kick up a huge ruckus.

The BNA Act listed the powers of the federal government and the Provinces, with anything left out going to the Provinces.  That is why we have 13 health setups and 13 educational setups.  They are both provincial under the BNA Act.  The Provinces guard what is theirs just as strongly as your states guard what is theirs.  After all, the original provinces were separate mostly self-governing colonies before they joined together, and they certainly weren't going to give anything up.

Yes, and? The BNA Act and be modified with a simple majority in that parliament that you just mentioned, right? That is fundamentally different that the US system.

I don't see how this is different than devolved authority in Scotland. They have devolved authority, but only because the House of Commons in Westminster gave it to them.

If you had googled you would see it isn't that easy.

We repatriated the BNA Act a while ago, but changing it is NOT easy.  It needs to pass the House, the Senate, and at least 7 provinces representing 50% of the population.  That 7 provinces/50% population thing basically makes it almost impossible to do anything.  Google Meech Lake Accord.

Plus stepping on Provincial rights?  I am sure it would end up in the Supreme court.  Every province has its own agenda, but they would be super united against that.  What would your various states do if your Federal government tried that?

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Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
« Reply #199 on: November 27, 2020, 03:02:22 PM »
If you had googled you would see it isn't that easy.

I did, but I am more familiar with the US and UK constitutions, so I didn't know the right search terms.

We repatriated the BNA Act a while ago, but changing it is NOT easy.  It needs to pass the House, the Senate, and at least 7 provinces representing 50% of the population.  That 7 provinces/50% population thing basically makes it almost impossible to do anything.  Google Meech Lake Accord.

Congrats, you managed to legislate your way into a quagmire. That was dumb.

But along those lines, you don't realize how nice you have it with your senate. When was the last time that your senate blocked everything that came out of the house for years?