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Other => Off Topic => Topic started by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on November 13, 2020, 07:28:11 PM

Title: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on November 13, 2020, 07:28:11 PM
I honestly can't see a way the USA comes through this intact without a full scale lockdown or a vaccine that works RIGHT NOW. April is far too late.

Edit to add that now is far too late. In decades to come, analysis will show that the USA imploded not because of size, or leaky borders, or even Trump or covid. It's because of your attitude.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Abe on November 13, 2020, 07:39:15 PM
Don't underestimate our ability to tolerate needless death. High estimates are 500,000 deaths total by the spring. Our country will survive that.

Honestly, I think people will take things more seriously once the rural hospitals start buckling. Right now the midwest is offloading covid patients to regional medical centers, which are starting to rely on non-ICU staff for coverage. Once they are unable to accept transfers, the rural hospitals' small ICUs will be overloaded and mortality will increase dramatically. Then people will open their eyes. We just have to learn the hard way over here.

Of note - any physicians with ICU experience looking for locums work, I got an email asking for COVID coverage in IL and CA. Can forward if requested.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on November 13, 2020, 07:54:41 PM
Don't underestimate our ability to tolerate needless death. High estimates are 500,000 deaths total by the spring. Our country will survive that.

Honestly, I think people will take things more seriously once the rural hospitals start buckling. Right now the midwest is offloading covid patients to regional medical centers, which are starting to rely on non-ICU staff for coverage. Once they are unable to accept transfers, the rural hospitals' small ICUs will be overloaded and mortality will increase dramatically. Then people will open their eyes. We just have to learn the hard way over here.

Yeah, that's pretty much what I thought. It's goddamn sad that Biden's covid task force can't start immediately. Perhaps it might help somehow. I don't really understand why he isn't all over the news taking control of covid right now. He might not have power, as such, but he sure as hell has influence.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Sibley on November 13, 2020, 08:05:29 PM
Even if Biden's taskforce could start immediately, you're still relying on people actually doing it. I've got plenty of neighbors (red state) who think it's a hoax, no big deal, just the flu, etc. Back in March/April, people were worried and complied, but since then - nope. A lot of people will have to die before it has a widespread impact in my area.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: HPstache on November 13, 2020, 08:15:35 PM
Even if Biden's taskforce could start immediately, you're still relying on people actually doing it. I've got plenty of neighbors (red state) who think it's a hoax, no big deal, just the flu, etc. Back in March/April, people were worried and complied, but since then - nope. A lot of people will have to die before it has a widespread impact in my area.

And you've got 1/3-1/2 of the population who say won't take the vaccine even if its available.... I'm not convinced there is much overlap in these two crowds judging by forum sentiment.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Dicey on November 13, 2020, 08:28:33 PM
I've been masking up and following protocols since March. My state adopted SIP early on and our compliance numbers have been pretty high, until lately.

I have zero tolerance for these covidiots who refuse to mask up. Example: my sister's husband threw a "masks optional" birthday party for her last weekend (with her full knowledge). He also happens to be a kidney transplant recipient, with the donor being my sister. [Insert exploding head sound here.] Of course, I did not attend. I'm counting the days, wondering who is going to fall. Totally unnecessary.

Another sister told me that Biden was going to require every citizen to don a mask from the moment they step outside their doors. (Guess who she voted for?) You know what? If that's what it takes, I'm all for it. However, a thorough Goog showed no evidence of such a proposal at this time. Yeesh!

I am willing to do whatever it takes.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Hotstreak on November 13, 2020, 09:12:04 PM
Why would Trump impose that sort of control?  He had an opportunity to do so in the spring and didn't act on it.  He doesn't seem inclined to do it now.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Travis on November 13, 2020, 09:22:57 PM
A million soldiers aren't going to fan out across the country checking on mask wear.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: FINate on November 13, 2020, 09:48:37 PM
Why would Trump impose that sort of control?  He had an opportunity to do so in the spring and didn't act on it.  He doesn't seem inclined to do it now.

Can you imagine if Trump mobilized the military to enforce martial law? People would lose their shit with what's going on with the election.

It's worth noting that the USA is not a small island nation; it's huge with thousands of miles of porous boarders and a massive amount of infrastructure. Once the virus was spreading widely (early March?) there was no way to stop it, could only really hope to slow it down. California did the right thing by locking down aggressively and mandating masks very early, yet even so it was a messy endeavor figuring out who exactly should be considered an "essential" worker. Couldn't simply shut everything down since people need food, medicine, electricity, etc. So there were always opportunities for the virus to spread. And at this point people are fatigued, even Gov. Newsom goofed by attending a birthday party that exceeded his own rules for gatherings.

Looking at graphs of infections over time, it looks like spikes often (though not always) coincide with when HVAC systems are working hard: Summer spikes in southern states, and a growing wave in northern states as winter approaches. I don't think this necessarily means HVAC systems are spreading it (though I suppose that's possible), but rather from people gathering inside to stay comfortable.

So I expect the Holidays to precede a rather large surge of infections and deaths this winter. I'm not going to hazard an estimate, but I think it'll be rough and the medical system will again be strained in places.

Difficult, yet the US will come though it intact.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Zamboni on November 13, 2020, 10:07:13 PM
Ummm, it definitely does spread through HVAC systems in some situations. If you live in an apartment and share air with other units, then close your vents and open a window if conditions permit it.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Paul der Krake on November 13, 2020, 10:21:12 PM
Sometimes I wonder if the right answer would have been to mandate absolutely nothing, let 2-3 million die and be done with it. Sure we would have had to prop up the life insurance industry and get Costco in the coffin business, but that's small potatoes compared to what's going on now.

Of course we'll never know.

Sorry what was the question?

Oh yes, strict lockdowns and martial law. Never gonna happen.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: FINate on November 13, 2020, 10:21:38 PM
Ummm, it definitely does spread through HVAC systems in some situations. If you live in an apartment and share air with other units, then close your vents and open a window if conditions permit it.

I've wondered about this. I've only ever lived in apartments with radiant heat. Do shared HVAC systems generally not have HEPA filtration between units? That just seems nuts to me, for so many reasons, even before COVID.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on November 13, 2020, 11:41:58 PM
A million soldiers aren't going to fan out across the country checking on mask wear.

I was thinking less about masks and more about confining people to their homes. Yes, with soldiers on the streets.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on November 13, 2020, 11:43:43 PM
Even if Biden's taskforce could start immediately, you're still relying on people actually doing it. I've got plenty of neighbors (red state) who think it's a hoax, no big deal, just the flu, etc. Back in March/April, people were worried and complied, but since then - nope. A lot of people will have to die before it has a widespread impact in my area.

It's not about leaving it up to people's own ideas anymore. I'm talking a full, martial law enforced lockdown. People confined to their homes and streets patrolled by the military. Before everyone gets all nuts about it, it would only have to be for 3 or 4 weeks.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on November 13, 2020, 11:45:49 PM
Sometimes I wonder if the right answer would have been to mandate absolutely nothing, let 2-3 million die and be done with it. Sure we would have had to prop up the life insurance industry and get Costco in the coffin business, but that's small potatoes compared to what's going on now.

Of course we'll never know.

Sorry what was the question?

Oh yes, strict lockdowns and martial law. Never gonna happen.

Regardless of right or wrong, I think that's pretty much what's going to happen. Without extreme measures, which I agree won't happen, it's too late for the US.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 14, 2020, 12:07:32 AM
A million soldiers aren't going to fan out across the country checking on mask wear.

I was thinking less about masks and more about confining people to their homes. Yes, with soldiers on the streets.

How many western democracies have done that?
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: MrUpwardlyMobile on November 14, 2020, 12:48:22 AM
I honestly can't see a way the USA comes through this intact without a full scale lockdown or a vaccine that works RIGHT NOW. April is far too late.

Comes through this?  The mortality rate isn’t anywhere near the level necessary to destabilize the US government.  You’re starting with an assumption that isn’t supported by data.

With regard to full scale lockdowns and martial law, what the heck kind of country do you think the US is? Troops enforcing a nationwide stay at home order? Restricting constitutional rights without a permissible constitutional basis? All no chance.

None of that is even plausible. Even if someone wanted to and legally could, it’s logistically impossible to enforce a lockdown by military occupation short of using bombs and machine guns.  The US is an enormous country and our military really isn’t that huge. Last I checked, we have like 1.3million members of our armed forces but 330 million people over 3.5 million square miles. 
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Paul der Krake on November 14, 2020, 12:53:06 AM
I honestly can't see a way the USA comes through this intact without a full scale lockdown or a vaccine that works RIGHT NOW. April is far too late.

Comes through this?  The morality rate isn’t anywhere near the level necessary to destabilize the US government.  You’re starting with an assumption that isn’t supported by data.

With regard to full scale lockdowns and martial law, what the heck kind of country do you think the US is? Troops enforcing a nationwide stay at home order? Restricting constitutional rights without a permissible constitutional basis? All no chance.

None of that is even plausible. Even if someone wanted to and legally could, it’s logistically impossible to enforce a lockdown by military occupation short of using bombs and machine guns.  The US is an enormous country and our military really isn’t that huge. Last I checked, we have like 1.3million members of our armed forces but 330 million people over 3.5 million square miles. 

Yeah but what if we could somehow lure all the chinstrappers to the Outerbanks then blow up the bridges?
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Travis on November 14, 2020, 01:46:48 AM
Ummm, it definitely does spread through HVAC systems in some situations. If you live in an apartment and share air with other units, then close your vents and open a window if conditions permit it.

I've wondered about this. I've only ever lived in apartments with radiant heat. Do shared HVAC systems generally not have HEPA filtration between units? That just seems nuts to me, for so many reasons, even before COVID.

Back in July we had a "second wave" here in Korea. They traced 50 infections to a single person sitting in a Starbucks for two hours without a mask.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on November 14, 2020, 02:38:14 AM
A million soldiers aren't going to fan out across the country checking on mask wear.

I was thinking less about masks and more about confining people to their homes. Yes, with soldiers on the streets.

How many western democracies have done that?

How many have needed to? How many have the level of moron that the US encourages?
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on November 14, 2020, 02:52:44 AM
I honestly can't see a way the USA comes through this intact without a full scale lockdown or a vaccine that works RIGHT NOW. April is far too late.

Comes through this?  The morality rate isn’t anywhere near the level necessary to destabilize the US government.  You’re starting with an assumption that isn’t supported by data.

With regard to full scale lockdowns and martial law, what the heck kind of country do you think the US is? Troops enforcing a nationwide stay at home order? Restricting constitutional rights without a permissible constitutional basis? All no chance.

None of that is even plausible. Even if someone wanted to and legally could, it’s logistically impossible to enforce a lockdown by military occupation short of using bombs and machine guns.  The US is an enormous country and our military really isn’t that huge. Last I checked, we have like 1.3million members of our armed forces but 330 million people over 3.5 million square miles.

It's absolutely possible in specific areas. You might have to change your laws or even ignore them for a bit, for the public good. The NZ lockdown wasn't actually legal for the first wee while, did you know that? Obviously, we don't have as many absolute fucking idiots to police, and the ones we do don't have guns. They just kind of whine a lot. No one pays them any attention and/or they get arrested for being absolute fucking idiots.

Meanwhile, you've made quite a few assumptions yourself, one of which is that the only factor here for destabilisation is the death rate. That's not actually how it works. What happens when it's the main income earner in a family that dies? Or when it's the owner of a small business that employs a dozen people? Or when you can no longer get specialist nursing staff because they're all sick or dead? What happens when the person that dies is the president? Or when senior officials are seriously ill? It doesn't take a lot for things to break down to the point of dysfunction. You would think that perhaps the USA might be a little bit more aware of that NOW than they were this time last year...... No? Well, you're about to get another lesson.

You asked specifically what kind of country I thought the US was? I think it's deeply flawed, all freedumb/no responsibility, and it probably needs to dump that ridiculous constitution and start over. The only useful thing you guys have going for you right now is that the real idiots are also far more likely to contract covid. With a bit of luck, a few million deaths will raise the national IQ enough to actually start moving in a more positive direction.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on November 14, 2020, 02:55:27 AM
Ummm, it definitely does spread through HVAC systems in some situations. If you live in an apartment and share air with other units, then close your vents and open a window if conditions permit it.

I've wondered about this. I've only ever lived in apartments with radiant heat. Do shared HVAC systems generally not have HEPA filtration between units? That just seems nuts to me, for so many reasons, even before COVID.

Back in July we had a "second wave" here in Korea. They traced 50 infections to a single person sitting in a Starbucks for two hours without a mask.

We've had an outbreak that was due to a staff member at a quarantine hotel spending 3 minutes in a lift that had just been vacated by someone infected.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Zamboni on November 14, 2020, 03:27:38 AM
Ummm, it definitely does spread through HVAC systems in some situations. If you live in an apartment and share air with other units, then close your vents and open a window if conditions permit it.

I've wondered about this. I've only ever lived in apartments with radiant heat. Do shared HVAC systems generally not have HEPA filtration between units? That just seems nuts to me, for so many reasons, even before COVID.

Lol! What luxury world do you live in? Come down here and check out life with the groundlings. Curry or weed, anyone? I'd have various apt neighbors who apparently can share with you daily. I had a friend who had a sewage backup and couldn't use the apt toilet for more than a week until the landlord got the roots blocking the pipe outside the building cleared . . . I can assure you that there were not HEPA filters anywhere near this county much less building.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Omy on November 14, 2020, 05:28:21 AM
"You asked specifically what kind of country I thought the US was? I think it's deeply flawed, all freedumb/no responsibility, and it probably needs to dump that ridiculous constitution and start over. The only useful thing you guys have going for you right now is that the real idiots are also far more likely to contract covid. With a bit of luck, a few million deaths will raise the national IQ enough to actually start moving in a more positive direction."

Agreed...and I live here. We've personally locked ourselves down as much as possible since March because we can't trust friends or family members to do the same.  We need a forced quarantine but it won't happen since the covidiots around us think it's no big deal. I know one whose husband just died from it, and she's still eating at restaurants and visiting friends.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Chris22 on November 14, 2020, 05:57:58 AM
How many of you have actually had Covid?  I did, and so did my wife. Aside from losing our sense of smell for a couple weeks, it was the mildest cold I’ve ever had. I had one day of stuffy nose and feeling run down, I worked all day (out of the house like I’ve done since March) took a nap at 6PM, woke up at 7PM feeling 90% better. That was a Tuesday; by Thursday I felt fine, got tested and received the message yup you had it. Did the quarantine thing for 2 weeks, and back to normal.  My wife’s experience mirrored mine. My neighbors next door (couple my age, late 30s) and their kids got it (not from us), same thing. He works construction, he spent his entire quarantine working on his house so clearly he felt fine too. If you’re young and anything close to reasonably healthy (I’m a bit fat and had childhood asthma, I was still fine) it’s a nonevent.  My kids tested positive, they never had a single symptom.  I know there are exceptions, but for the vast majority of people, that’s how it goes.


Putting soldiers in the streets?  Are they going to shoot US citizens?  Are we suspending Posse Comitatus?  Do you want to spark a revolution?  That is how you get one.

Look at the real mortality, look at the demographics of those who are dying in real numbers (protect them) and remember what web site you are on, one that is supposed to react to numbers not emotions.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: FINate on November 14, 2020, 06:09:54 AM
Ummm, it definitely does spread through HVAC systems in some situations. If you live in an apartment and share air with other units, then close your vents and open a window if conditions permit it.

I've wondered about this. I've only ever lived in apartments with radiant heat. Do shared HVAC systems generally not have HEPA filtration between units? That just seems nuts to me, for so many reasons, even before COVID.

Lol! What luxury world do you live in? Come down here and check out life with the groundlings. Curry or weed, anyone? I'd have various apt neighbors who apparently can share with you daily. I had a friend who had a sewage backup and couldn't use the apt toilet for more than a week until the landlord got the roots blocking the pipe outside the building cleared . . . I can assure you that there were not HEPA filters anywhere near this county much less building.

Haha, perhaps. I'm very familiar with the mixed aromas of apartment living. But that happens even without forced-air recirculation between multiple living units, which is what I'm talking about. I mean, I'm sure this exists, just as shoddy plumbing exists. I'm just surprised that since oh, I don't know, the advent of the germ theory of disease, that anyone thought it would be acceptable. Apparently this is what happens on cruise ships, so maybe I shouldn't be surprised.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: FINate on November 14, 2020, 06:16:46 AM
You asked specifically what kind of country I thought the US was? I think it's deeply flawed, all freedumb/no responsibility, and it probably needs to dump that ridiculous constitution and start over. The only useful thing you guys have going for you right now is that the real idiots are also far more likely to contract covid. With a bit of luck, a few million deaths will raise the national IQ enough to actually start moving in a more positive direction.

Military occupation and dumping the constitution is a recipe for full-blown civil war. Your "cure" is worse than the disease, many more people would die in open bloody conflict than COVID, while also making the pandemic exponentially worse. To be blunt, this is the kind of simplistic authoritarian proposal I'd expect from the Trump administration or an extremist right-wing nut.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: MrUpwardlyMobile on November 14, 2020, 06:29:46 AM
I honestly can't see a way the USA comes through this intact without a full scale lockdown or a vaccine that works RIGHT NOW. April is far too late.

Comes through this?  The morality rate isn’t anywhere near the level necessary to destabilize the US government.  You’re starting with an assumption that isn’t supported by data.

With regard to full scale lockdowns and martial law, what the heck kind of country do you think the US is? Troops enforcing a nationwide stay at home order? Restricting constitutional rights without a permissible constitutional basis? All no chance.

None of that is even plausible. Even if someone wanted to and legally could, it’s logistically impossible to enforce a lockdown by military occupation short of using bombs and machine guns.  The US is an enormous country and our military really isn’t that huge. Last I checked, we have like 1.3million members of our armed forces but 330 million people over 3.5 million square miles.

It's absolutely possible in specific areas. You might have to change your laws or even ignore them for a bit, for the public good. The NZ lockdown wasn't actually legal for the first wee while, did you know that? Obviously, we don't have as many absolute fucking idiots to police, and the ones we do don't have guns. They just kind of whine a lot. No one pays them any attention and/or they get arrested for being absolute fucking idiots.

Meanwhile, you've made quite a few assumptions yourself, one of which is that the only factor here for destabilisation is the death rate. That's not actually how it works. What happens when it's the main income earner in a family that dies? Or when it's the owner of a small business that employs a dozen people? Or when you can no longer get specialist nursing staff because they're all sick or dead? What happens when the person that dies is the president? Or when senior officials are seriously ill? It doesn't take a lot for things to break down to the point of dysfunction. You would think that perhaps the USA might be a little bit more aware of that NOW than they were this time last year...... No? Well, you're about to get another lesson.

You asked specifically what kind of country I thought the US was? I think it's deeply flawed, all freedumb/no responsibility, and it probably needs to dump that ridiculous constitution and start over. The only useful thing you guys have going for you right now is that the real idiots are also far more likely to contract covid. With a bit of luck, a few million deaths will raise the national IQ enough to actually start moving in a more positive direction.

When the main income earner in a family dies, it’s a tragedy but the systems account for such things. Life insurance, death benefits, and social safety nets all exist to some extent or another.  Catholic Churches will feed and clothe people in need pretty readily.

If a small business owner dies, the entity will pass to whomever it legally should pass to.  If the business fails, we have systems for that all too. 

Specialist nursing and doctors are something we have a lot of here and where you run through specialists, generalists (I.e., most doctors) can perform meaningful care. That said, all specialists dying isn’t close to likely here.

Our president has already had Covid. While the next President probably hasn’t had it, we have a very robust succession built into our system.  An awful lot of specific people have to die or be incapacitated at the exact same time for us to run into an issue.

Senior officials? Our government mostly runs on autopilot. The inertia of a large organization means that it could run without hack political appointees for a while because the low and mid level career people know what their jobs are.

Your suggestions for dysfunction suggest a level of fragility akin to a house of cards.  You seem to believe any thing will result in societal collapse.  The systems that exist are more durable than that.  Even if they weren’t, we wouldn’t devolve into some mad max societal collapse absent way more catastrophic things.   

With regard to changing laws, we aren’t changing the Constitution or limiting god given human rights to accede to a foreign fringe group’s desire for us to live under some kind of military occupation of the United States.  Because that is what you’re suggesting; armed military people enforcing a forceful occupation of America based on some misguided belief that would be a good thing. It wouldn’t.  We love our country and our human rights. We’re doing pretty well in the grand scheme of things. COVID isn’t going to fundamentally change America. 

You think our country is deeply flawed. That’s fine. We think a lot of other places are deeply flawed. You think it would be lucky if a few million of us died, well that just makes you a bad person.  Nevertheless, a few million people aren’t going to die from covid here. 

Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: MudPuppy on November 14, 2020, 06:31:38 AM
Definitely spread through shared air systems. A hospital in a nearby county had their entire ICU staff catch COVID when a newly fitted negative pressure room was hooked up incorrectly and dumped the air directly on to the nurses’ station.


As far as martial law, that won’t happen. The current leader doesn’t care enough to order it and the future leader isn’t given to despot tactics.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: MrUpwardlyMobile on November 14, 2020, 06:33:00 AM
You asked specifically what kind of country I thought the US was? I think it's deeply flawed, all freedumb/no responsibility, and it probably needs to dump that ridiculous constitution and start over. The only useful thing you guys have going for you right now is that the real idiots are also far more likely to contract covid. With a bit of luck, a few million deaths will raise the national IQ enough to actually start moving in a more positive direction.

Military occupation and dumping the constitution is a recipe for full-blown civil war. Your "cure" is worse than the disease, many more people would die in open bloody conflict than COVID, while also making the pandemic exponentially worse. To be blunt, this is the kind of simplistic authoritarian proposal I'd expect from the Trump administration or an extremist right-wing nut.

In the US, I’d expect our extreme fringe (left and right!) to assassinate anyone seriously trying to impose a military occupation of the US.  Can you imagine someone seriously suggesting tanks driving down Main Street to force Americans to submit?
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: teen persuasion on November 14, 2020, 06:33:14 AM
How many of you have actually had Covid?  I did, and so did my wife. Aside from losing our sense of smell for a couple weeks, it was the mildest cold I’ve ever had. I had one day of stuffy nose and feeling run down, I worked all day (out of the house like I’ve done since March) took a nap at 6PM, woke up at 7PM feeling 90% better. That was a Tuesday; by Thursday I felt fine, got tested and received the message yup you had it. Did the quarantine thing for 2 weeks, and back to normal.  My wife’s experience mirrored mine. My neighbors next door (couple my age, late 30s) and their kids got it (not from us), same thing. He works construction, he spent his entire quarantine working on his house so clearly he felt fine too. If you’re young and anything close to reasonably healthy (I’m a bit fat and had childhood asthma, I was still fine) it’s a nonevent.  My kids tested positive, they never had a single symptom.  I know there are exceptions, but for the vast majority of people, that’s how it goes.


Putting soldiers in the streets?  Are they going to shoot US citizens?  Are we suspending Posse Comitatus?  Do you want to spark a revolution?  That is how you get one.

Look at the real mortality, look at the demographics of those who are dying in real numbers (protect them) and remember what web site you are on, one that is supposed to react to numbers not emotions.
I'm glad you were one of the lucky ones who got a mild case.  I think something like 20% get a more serious case, the most serious cases being fatal.

AFAIK, we haven't had it, but DH's aide had it (he wasn't exposed because of the early lockdown in NY).  Her sister died from Covid.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Omy on November 14, 2020, 06:38:12 AM
How many of you have actually had Covid?  I did, and so did my wife. Aside from losing our sense of smell for a couple weeks, it was the mildest cold I’ve ever had. I had one day of stuffy nose and feeling run down, I worked all day (out of the house like I’ve done since March) took a nap at 6PM, woke up at 7PM feeling 90% better. That was a Tuesday; by Thursday I felt fine, got tested and received the message yup you had it. Did the quarantine thing for 2 weeks, and back to normal.  My wife’s experience mirrored mine. My neighbors next door (couple my age, late 30s) and their kids got it (not from us), same thing. He works construction, he spent his entire quarantine working on his house so clearly he felt fine too. If you’re young and anything close to reasonably healthy (I’m a bit fat and had childhood asthma, I was still fine) it’s a nonevent.  My kids tested positive, they never had a single symptom.  I know there are exceptions, but for the vast majority of people, that’s how it goes.


Putting soldiers in the streets?  Are they going to shoot US citizens?  Are we suspending Posse Comitatus?  Do you want to spark a revolution?  That is how you get one.

Look at the real mortality, look at the demographics of those who are dying in real numbers (protect them) and remember what web site you are on, one that is supposed to react to numbers not emotions.

If we're going with anecdotal numbers, I know 3 people who have died from covid, 4 who are long haulers, and maybe 20 who have experienced mild to moderate symptoms...in an 8 month period. Guess how many people I know who have died or had long term effects from the flu during my entire life...zero.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: maizefolk on November 14, 2020, 06:39:58 AM
I agree with FINate.

AnnaGowsAMuschache it sounds like you have very strong ideas about the USA. In this case though, you're hearing from people inside the country that:

1) Our current leadership wouldn't order a military-enforced lockdown.
2) Even if they would do it, legally they wouldn't have to power to do so
3) Even if they would order it, and where legally allowed to do so, the logistics of the US military occupying the USA just don't work out. We're too spread out and we don't have enough soldiers.*
4) Even if they would order it, and legally allowed to, and magically produced an extra 4M trained and loyal soldiers out of thin air, an attempt by a lame duck president to instate martial law between now and Christmas would be much more likely to trigger a revolution/civil war that would actually be the end of our country than even the worst case projections for COVID (which would be the end of all too many of us individually but not the end of the USA as a whole).

Now you can think whatever you want to think (up to and including that millions of us dying is a good thing, although I'll admit I take that rather personally). But folks in this thread are honestly trying to explain why your prediction just isn't something that can come to pass, at least not between now and Christmas.

*Effective occupations generally require about 1 soldier for every 40-50 inhabitants. Our total armed forces are 1.4M. Mobilizing the entire reserve including the national guards would be maybe another 1M, which puts us at one person in the armed forces (including sailors, airplane mechanics, and the folks in the Space Force) for every 140 inhabitants ... about the ratio between the US occupying forces and the Iraqi civilian population in 2004. <-- Which didn't work out so well either.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: dcheesi on November 14, 2020, 06:41:27 AM
Comes through this?  The morality rate isn’t anywhere near the level necessary to destabilize the US government.  You’re starting with an assumption that isn’t supported by data.
[emphasis mine]

How deliciously Freudian
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Chris22 on November 14, 2020, 06:47:26 AM
ITT: “your Constitution is old and outdated” (I can read between the lines, you mean the 2A

Also ITT: “you should use soldiers to lock people down in their homes!”


The irony is rich and delicious, more so because I’m sure people don’t see it that way.

But yea, that’s exactly why we have a Constitution and those rights.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: MrUpwardlyMobile on November 14, 2020, 06:55:45 AM
Comes through this?  The morality rate isn’t anywhere near the level necessary to destabilize the US government.  You’re starting with an assumption that isn’t supported by data.
[emphasis mine]

How deliciously Freudian
stymied by autocorrect!
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Kris on November 14, 2020, 07:06:49 AM
By Christmas? With Trump in the White House? Psh. He couldn’t be bothered, even if it was a plague killing ten times as many people.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: GuitarStv on November 14, 2020, 07:33:04 AM
ITT: “your Constitution is old and outdated” (I can read between the lines, you mean the 2A

Also ITT: “you should use soldiers to lock people down in their homes!”


The irony is rich and delicious, more so because I’m sure people don’t see it that way.

But yea, that’s exactly why we have a Constitution and those rights.

There are plenty of places without the insane lack of gun laws enjoyed in the US.  Yet the only country that I'm aware of which has used soldiers to lock down citizens has been China.  It's almost like gun rights have nothing to do with the situation.

Furthermore, throughout the year US government forces have been illegally suppressing peaceful protests (enshrined in the US constitution).  Weak gun regulation hasn't helped to fix the situation at all.  It's almost like the whole idea of 'fighting off the tyrannical government with my small arms collection' is fundamentally flawed and unworkable in reality.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: dcheesi on November 14, 2020, 07:41:06 AM
By Christmas? With Trump in the White House? Psh. He couldn’t be bothered, even if it was a plague killing ten times as many people.
I agree, at this point, he's no longer even making a pretense of caring about the country or his official duties, even to the limited degree that he did before the election.

What seems more plausible is that he uses COVID as an excuse to quell any unrest as he desperately clings to power. If his supporters' efforts succeed in pushing us towards a constitutional crisis, I think we'd start to see some popular protests, etc., and at some point he might decide to declare public protests illegal "because COVID". A full-fledged national lockdown would only be an option of last resort, since he needs to keep his covidiot base happy; more likely, you'd see him attempt to impose martial law in specific cities/states, with only thinly veiled political motives in the choice of locations.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Kris on November 14, 2020, 07:58:40 AM
By Christmas? With Trump in the White House? Psh. He couldn’t be bothered, even if it was a plague killing ten times as many people.
I agree, at this point, he's no longer even making a pretense of caring about the country or his official duties, even to the limited degree that he did before the election.

What seems more plausible is that he uses COVID as an excuse to quell any unrest as he desperately clings to power. If his supporters' efforts succeed in pushing us towards a constitutional crisis, I think we'd start to see some popular protests, etc., and at some point he might decide to declare public protests illegal "because COVID". A full-fledged national lockdown would only be an option of last resort, since he needs to keep his covidiot base happy; more likely, you'd see him attempt to impose martial law in specific cities/states, with only thinly veiled political motives in the choice of locations.


Yeah, that’s far more likely.

By the way, just FYI to all: the US will reach a quarter of a million Covid deaths today.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: OtherJen on November 14, 2020, 07:58:55 AM
By Christmas? With Trump in the White House? Psh. He couldn’t be bothered, even if it was a plague killing ten times as many people.
I agree, at this point, he's no longer even making a pretense of caring about the country or his official duties, even to the limited degree that he did before the election.

What seems more plausible is that he uses COVID as an excuse to quell any unrest as he desperately clings to power. If his supporters' efforts succeed in pushing us towards a constitutional crisis, I think we'd start to see some popular protests, etc., and at some point he might decide to declare public protests illegal "because COVID". A full-fledged national lockdown would only be an option of last resort, since he needs to keep his covidiot base happy; more likely, you'd see him attempt to impose martial law in specific cities/states, with only thinly veiled political motives in the choice of locations.

So Michigan, NY, and Pennsylvania.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: MrUpwardlyMobile on November 14, 2020, 07:59:34 AM
ITT: “your Constitution is old and outdated” (I can read between the lines, you mean the 2A

Also ITT: “you should use soldiers to lock people down in their homes!”


The irony is rich and delicious, more so because I’m sure people don’t see it that way.

But yea, that’s exactly why we have a Constitution and those rights.

There are plenty of places without the insane lack of gun laws enjoyed in the US.  Yet the only country that I'm aware of which has used soldiers to lock down citizens has been China.  It's almost like gun rights have nothing to do with the situation.

Furthermore, throughout the year US government forces have been illegally suppressing peaceful protests (enshrined in the US constitution).  Weak gun regulation hasn't helped to fix the situation at all.  It's almost like the whole idea of 'fighting off the tyrannical government with my small arms collection' is fundamentally flawed and unworkable in reality.

Ummmm, you must be from somewhere else.  What illegal suppression of peaceful protests are you talking about?

Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on November 14, 2020, 08:18:24 AM
I honestly can't see a way the USA comes through this intact without a full scale lockdown or a vaccine that works RIGHT NOW. April is far too late.


Under the Tenth Amendment (federalism) each governor has the police power to order a statewide lockdown to promote the citizens' health, safety, and welfare.

What's problematic is that a lockdown is unenforceable for lack of  authorized enforcement personnel.

There are nowhere near enough of them to keep ~330,000,000 people in compliance with a lockdown.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Chris22 on November 14, 2020, 08:18:52 AM
ITT: “your Constitution is old and outdated” (I can read between the lines, you mean the 2A

Also ITT: “you should use soldiers to lock people down in their homes!”


The irony is rich and delicious, more so because I’m sure people don’t see it that way.

But yea, that’s exactly why we have a Constitution and those rights.

There are plenty of places without the insane lack of gun laws enjoyed in the US.  Yet the only country that I'm aware of which has used soldiers to lock down citizens has been China.  It's almost like gun rights have nothing to do with the situation.

Furthermore, throughout the year US government forces have been illegally suppressing peaceful protests (enshrined in the US constitution).  Weak gun regulation hasn't helped to fix the situation at all.  It's almost like the whole idea of 'fighting off the tyrannical government with my small arms collection' is fundamentally flawed and unworkable in reality.

Ummmm, you must be from somewhere else.  What illegal suppression of peaceful protests are you talking about?

I mean he did stop those protestors from peacefully burning down that federal courthouse in Seattle...
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: MrUpwardlyMobile on November 14, 2020, 08:23:46 AM
ITT: “your Constitution is old and outdated” (I can read between the lines, you mean the 2A

Also ITT: “you should use soldiers to lock people down in their homes!”


The irony is rich and delicious, more so because I’m sure people don’t see it that way.

But yea, that’s exactly why we have a Constitution and those rights.

There are plenty of places without the insane lack of gun laws enjoyed in the US.  Yet the only country that I'm aware of which has used soldiers to lock down citizens has been China.  It's almost like gun rights have nothing to do with the situation.

Furthermore, throughout the year US government forces have been illegally suppressing peaceful protests (enshrined in the US constitution).  Weak gun regulation hasn't helped to fix the situation at all.  It's almost like the whole idea of 'fighting off the tyrannical government with my small arms collection' is fundamentally flawed and unworkable in reality.

Ummmm, you must be from somewhere else.  What illegal suppression of peaceful protests are you talking about?

I mean he did stop those protestors from peacefully burning down that federal courthouse in Seattle...

Yeah, the only protests that really got interfered with had an awful lot of peacefully smashing shit going on. Indeed, it’s the root of the persistent joke that if you want to host a mass gathering, just say you’re protesting something and authorities will leave you alone.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: wenchsenior on November 14, 2020, 08:41:42 AM
Even if Biden's taskforce could start immediately, you're still relying on people actually doing it. I've got plenty of neighbors (red state) who think it's a hoax, no big deal, just the flu, etc. Back in March/April, people were worried and complied, but since then - nope. A lot of people will have to die before it has a widespread impact in my area.

Masking has become so politicized here that if Biden were to try to issue a federal mask mandate, let alone enforce any kind of mandates or lockdowns (regardless of whether he had the legal ability to do it, which I don't know), that would likely trigger 1) active defiance and noncompliance among Trump voters, rather than simple lack of interest in compliance; and 2) potential armed bands of 'freedumb fighters' roaming around trying to intimidate mask wearers and mask-enforcing businesses and/or doing more threatening of any state officials that also supported such rules (e.g., Michigan).

It would actually worsen the situation, IMO, as incredible as it seems. So I hope Biden doesn't try to issue any 'enforceable' edicts. 

Incidentally, my deep red county just cracked the U.S. top 10 list for Covid deaths per capita from covid last week, with both our major medical centers on the news every night pleading for people to follow masking and distancing guidelines, but GET THIS, when I was in one of these medical centers last month, even THEY were not enforcing masking rules for patients or staff! 
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on November 14, 2020, 08:42:29 AM


Another sister told me that Biden was going to require every citizen to don a mask from the moment they step outside their doors. (Guess who she voted for?) You know what? If that's what it takes, I'm all for it. However, a thorough Goog showed no evidence of such a proposal at this time. Yeesh!

I am willing to do whatever it takes.


Your sister is misinformed.

There is no federal police power or specific, presidential power akin to the States' police power so no president can order nationwide  masking.

We can be sure that every day Biden and his transition team are using back channels to organize and coordinate the resources of federal and state agencies to do battle against COVID-19.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 14, 2020, 10:22:05 AM
I honestly can't see a way the USA comes through this intact without a full scale lockdown or a vaccine that works RIGHT NOW. April is far too late.

Under the Tenth Amendment (federalism) each governor has the police power to order a statewide lockdown to promote the citizens' health, safety, and welfare.

What's problematic is that a lockdown is unenforceable for lack of  authorized enforcement personnel.

There are nowhere near enough of them to keep ~330,000,000 people in compliance with a lockdown.

Between State Police and National Guard you could do it. Italy and the UK don't have more resources than the USA, they were just more willing to use them.

But you couldn't have a national mandate with national enforcement, because the use of the US military to police civilians in peacetime is generally considered to be both illegal and in very bad taste by both sides of the political divide.

EDITed to add - you could maybe use national authority to mobilize states national guards. The war powers act as written might allow that, but it would not go over well with the governors.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on November 14, 2020, 10:28:26 AM

You asked specifically what kind of country I thought the US was? I think it's deeply flawed, all freedumb/no responsibility, and it probably needs to dump that ridiculous constitution and start over.

In the words of Justice Scalia: "It's game over"  if a concentration of power ever obtains here.

America's constitutional, tripartite  scheme of three coequal branches that check and balance each other serves as a preventative against concentrations of power inimical to our liberties.

AnnaGrowsAMustache, if you lived in America would  you want President Trump (or any president)  to have powers not subject to constitutional limitations?

We Americans would not tolerate such an  unthinkable repugnance.

 Judge Learned Hand said "Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it; no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it."

In America, I trust that our undying love for our liberties  and resolute  insistence that they be ever preserved    precludes  any national decision  to   "dump that ridiculous constitution and start over."

Long live our American Constitution, the superior charter that guarantees our liberties.



 



Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: maizefolk on November 14, 2020, 10:40:46 AM
Between State Police and National Guard you could do it. Italy and the UK don't have more resources than the USA, they were just more willing to use them.

But you couldn't have a national mandate with national enforcement, because the use of the US military to police civilians in peacetime is generally considered to be both illegal and in very bad taste by both sides of the political divide.

EDITed to add - you could maybe use national authority to mobilize states national guards. The war powers act as written might allow that, but it would not go over well with the governors.

There are 800,000 police in the USA (about one for every 400 people). The national guard only adds another 450,000 people (and about 1/3 of those are in the air national guard).

Italy actually does have about twice as many police as the USA (one for every 200 people), although the UK is much more similar to us here in the USA with one cop for every 450 people. However, I think the big difference is that in Italy and the UK most of the population bought into the need for the lockdown. An external imposed lockdown enforced primarily by martial law (what AnnaGrowsAMustache is proposing) rather that population buy in with police enforcement for a small number of people who don't go along with it is a very different thing indeed.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: FINate on November 14, 2020, 10:47:42 AM
But you couldn't have a national mandate with national enforcement, because the use of the US military to police civilians in peacetime is generally considered to be both illegal and in very bad taste by both sides of the political divide.

Exactly. We just had a summer of protests (and riots?) over policing in the US. So instead of defunding and/or demilitarizing the police we'd roll out the actual military? One thing we've hopefully learned by our country's recent misadventures abroad is that the military -- while great at logistics, supply lines, killing, and destroying -- is a rather terrible police force.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on November 14, 2020, 11:04:55 AM
Between State Police and National Guard you could do it. Italy and the UK don't have more resources than the USA, they were just more willing to use them.

But you couldn't have a national mandate with national enforcement, because the use of the US military to police civilians in peacetime is generally considered to be both illegal and in very bad taste by both sides of the political divide.

EDITed to add - you could maybe use national authority to mobilize states national guards. The war powers act as written might allow that, but it would not go over well with the governors.

There are 800,000 police in the USA (about one for every 400 people). The national guard only adds another 450,000 people (and about 1/3 of those are in the air national guard).

Italy actually does have about twice as many police as the USA (one for every 200 people), although the UK is much more similar to us here in the USA with one cop for every 450 people. However, I think the big difference is that in Italy and the UK most of the population bought into the need for the lockdown. An external imposed lockdown enforced primarily by martial law (what AnnaGrowsAMustache is proposing) rather that population buy in with police enforcement for a small number of people who don't go along with it is a very different thing indeed.

In the hypothetical event of a national mask mandate issuing from a president, would all authorized enforcement personnel enforce it?

I think many would not.

A sheriff in charge of a remote county in Wyoming has an entirely different relationship with people in his/her jurisdiction than the sheriff of Los Angeles County has with people there.



Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: iris lily on November 14, 2020, 11:16:31 AM
Sometimes I wonder if the right answer would have been to mandate absolutely nothing, let 2-3 million die and be done with it. Sure we would have had to prop up the life insurance industry and get Costco in the coffin business, but that's small potatoes compared to what's going on now.

Of course we'll never know.

Sorry what was the question?

Oh yes, strict lockdowns and martial law. Never gonna happen.
What a macabre comment.

And yes it made me laugh.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: OtherJen on November 14, 2020, 11:30:43 AM
Today, Trump's schedule involved driving through a rally en route to the golf course. Implementing a national COVID strategy of any type would require him to do actual work. Not going to happen.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: maizefolk on November 14, 2020, 11:31:47 AM
In the hypothetical event of a national mask mandate issuing from a president, would all authorized enforcement personnel enforce it?

I think many would not.

A sheriff in charge of a remote county in Wyoming has an entirely different relationship with people in his/her jurisdiction than the sheriff of Los Angeles County has with people there.

I tend to agree with you. For people living outside the USA it may be hard to appreciate just how different law enforcement is here. The vast majority of police are part of city or county forces which report to mayors or county supervisors. I don't know that there is even any mechanism for the federal government to reach down, through the state governments, through the local governments into the police forces.

Compare that to Italy where 2/3rds of the total police force is made up of the state police (100,000 civilian officers reporting to the Italian Minister of the Interior who reports to the prime minister), and the carabinieri (100,000 military police who spend of of their time enforce the law in Italy but can also be deployed overseas to fight wars, who report to the Italian Minister of Defense who reports to the prime minister).

So the prime minister of Italy has a LOT more power over the police of Italy than the president of the United States has over most of the police in our country.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 14, 2020, 11:39:34 AM
However, I think the big difference is that in Italy and the UK most of the population bought into the need for the lockdown. An external imposed lockdown enforced primarily by martial law (what AnnaGrowsAMustache is proposing) rather that population buy in with police enforcement for a small number of people who don't go along with it is a very different thing indeed.

Penalties in Italy were steep and police were actually on the street from the beginning enforcing them. I disagree that police enforcement wasn't a huge component to their compliance. The UK was similar with police on the streets actually enforcing the lockdown although I believe that the penalties were less severe.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 14, 2020, 11:49:21 AM
For people living outside the USA it may be hard to appreciate just how different law enforcement is here. The vast majority of police are part of city or county forces which report to mayors or county supervisors. I don't know that there is even any mechanism for the federal government to reach down, through the state governments, through the local governments into the police forces.

There is also a long history of case law specifically saying that the states don't have to enforce federal law. This is how states can get away with legalizing cannabis while it is still illegal federally. The most recent case that I'm familiar with is Printz v. United States, but I'm neither an attorney nor a constitutional scholar.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: maizefolk on November 14, 2020, 11:57:12 AM
However, I think the big difference is that in Italy and the UK most of the population bought into the need for the lockdown. An external imposed lockdown enforced primarily by martial law (what AnnaGrowsAMustache is proposing) rather that population buy in with police enforcement for a small number of people who don't go along with it is a very different thing indeed.

Penalties in Italy were steep and police were actually on the street from the beginning enforcing them. I disagree that police enforcement wasn't a huge component to their compliance. The UK was similar with police on the streets actually enforcing the lockdown although I believe that the penalties were less severe.

I think you may be disagreeing with something I'm not actually saying (or at least wasn't intending to say). I'm not saying the police weren't active in the UK and Italy or that they didn't pay an important role in enforcing the lockdowns. I'm saying that general buy in from the population meant that the number of people the police needed to arrest/ticket/etc in those countries was manageable, even with only one police officer per 200 or 450 people.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 14, 2020, 12:11:25 PM
However, I think the big difference is that in Italy and the UK most of the population bought into the need for the lockdown. An external imposed lockdown enforced primarily by martial law (what AnnaGrowsAMustache is proposing) rather that population buy in with police enforcement for a small number of people who don't go along with it is a very different thing indeed.

Penalties in Italy were steep and police were actually on the street from the beginning enforcing them. I disagree that police enforcement wasn't a huge component to their compliance. The UK was similar with police on the streets actually enforcing the lockdown although I believe that the penalties were less severe.

I think you may be disagreeing with something I'm not actually saying (or at least wasn't intending to say). I'm not saying the police weren't active in the UK and Italy or that they didn't pay an important role in enforcing the lockdowns. I'm saying that general buy in from the population meant that the number of people the police needed to arrest/ticket/etc in those countries was manageable, even with only one police officer per 200 or 450 people.

That's fair. I might have been focusing too much on your use of "population buy in."
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Zamboni on November 14, 2020, 01:31:42 PM
Let's also remember that an individual person can't work 24/7. . . So probably multiply any figure of how many police would be needed by a factor of about 3.

I'm glad some of you haven't gotten very sick when you had it. It's completely false to then surmise that it is no big deal. Your logic is totally faulty. You were just lucky, so thank your good luck.

If we can agree that the death rate in the US is 2-3%, which it is (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html), then every day that is passing this month we are going to have 3000 or more who catch it who will go on to die . . . every single day in the US.

And let's all remember that there are still a TON of people who ARE either in self-imposed complete lockdown or semi lockdown. I'm working 100% from home. My kids are in virtual school. When I do go out to get groceries, I'm finally starting to see mask compliance being pretty good around here. If everyone was operating in business-as-usual mode, then the spread would be much faster, although it's hard to imagine beating the November rate of spread.

If ALL of the hair salons and restaurants and gyms and malls shut down again for a month, and everyone really did just stay home, then perhaps we could make it to a vaccine in April-June without an absolute explosion in the numbers of dead people? But people aren't going to comply and I don't see how the economy can handle that without another stimulus bill . . . most people in the US just don't have any money saved.

Which brings us full circle to MMM. Be glad you are here. Be glad you figured out how to manage your finances prudently and responsibly. Be glad that you know you can survive without take out dining, for example. Seriously, my fiscally irresponsible ex- has a very fiscally irresponsible young lady boarding at his house. . . at first I was annoyed by her influence on my teenage daughter, and I was even more annoyed when the boarder lady, who works part time as a server at a pub and at WalMart, tested positive for COVID (because of course she did: it was only a matter of time.) But, I am now delighted to hear my daughter say things like "she's just an idiot about money . . . she's stuck living with Dad because she makes bad choices. I'm going to get credentials to get a good job and then save all my money so I'm never in her situation." Small victories emerge from COVID. I'm now fully off topic.

No, there won't be a martial law type lockdown in the US. It's just not who we are.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: MilesTeg on November 14, 2020, 02:14:49 PM
Don't underestimate our ability to tolerate needless death. High estimates are 500,000 deaths total by the spring. Our country will survive that.

Honestly, I think people will take things more seriously once the rural hospitals start buckling. Right now the midwest is offloading covid patients to regional medical centers, which are starting to rely on non-ICU staff for coverage. Once they are unable to accept transfers, the rural hospitals' small ICUs will be overloaded and mortality will increase dramatically. Then people will open their eyes. We just have to learn the hard way over here.

Of note - any physicians with ICU experience looking for locums work, I got an email asking for COVID coverage in IL and CA. Can forward if requested.

Sadly, I think you are giving a certain segment of the population far too much credit. There is literally nothing that would convince them that COVID is serious business.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: OtherJen on November 14, 2020, 02:22:57 PM
Don't underestimate our ability to tolerate needless death. High estimates are 500,000 deaths total by the spring. Our country will survive that.

Honestly, I think people will take things more seriously once the rural hospitals start buckling. Right now the midwest is offloading covid patients to regional medical centers, which are starting to rely on non-ICU staff for coverage. Once they are unable to accept transfers, the rural hospitals' small ICUs will be overloaded and mortality will increase dramatically. Then people will open their eyes. We just have to learn the hard way over here.

Of note - any physicians with ICU experience looking for locums work, I got an email asking for COVID coverage in IL and CA. Can forward if requested.

Sadly, I think you are giving a certain segment of the population far too much credit. There is literally nothing that would convince them that COVID is serious business.

Yes. Many of them watched their leader get sick enough with it to require a multi-day hospital stay and experimental treatment, and because he survived and continues to host superspreader events, they believe that it can't touch them. And of course they don't think about the potential harm to others.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 14, 2020, 02:25:11 PM
If ALL of the hair salons and restaurants and gyms and malls shut down again for a month, and everyone really did just stay home, then perhaps we could make it to a vaccine in April-June without an absolute explosion in the numbers of dead people? But people aren't going to comply and I don't see how the economy can handle that without another stimulus bill . . . most people in the US just don't have any money saved.

I'm in OR, we go back into lockdown in four days. As to the money saved, it wouldn't matter. This is turning into a 18 month pandemic, if you can't work from home you almost certainly can't pay your bills from savings for 18 months.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Chris22 on November 14, 2020, 03:13:12 PM
Quote
I'm glad some of you haven't gotten very sick when you had it. It's completely false to then surmise that it is no big deal. Your logic is totally faulty. You were just lucky, so thank your good luck.

I would suggest that something that doesn’t happen that only has a 2-3% chance of happening isn’t “luck” it’s statistics. Especially given that the 2-3% is the overall death rate, we know that it’s much more lethal to the elderly, so a younger person (I’m 38) doesn’t have a 2-3% chance, it’s much lower than that statistically.

Quote
If we can agree that the death rate in the US is 2-3%, which it is (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html, then every day that is passing this month we are going to have 3000 or more who catch it who will go on to die . . . every single day in the US

I don’t know that we can agree on that. I think we are accounting for every death but understating cases. For instance, my wife tested negative, she didn’t count as a case. However she developed symptoms 2-3 days after me. She had the same symptoms as I did. Prior to my positive test we weren’t socially distancing from one another. She never bothered to go back and test positive, she just assumed she had it and quarantined. Same with my neighbor, his wife and kids tested positive, he assumed he had it and never got a test, same symptoms as the rest of us. I think there are countless examples like this, plus look at Elon Musk’s tweet about his 2 pos/2 neg tests in short succession. I think the illness is quite a bit more widespread than we think, meaning it’s quite a bit less deadly.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on November 14, 2020, 03:40:04 PM
I honestly can't see a way the USA comes through this intact without a full scale lockdown or a vaccine that works RIGHT NOW. April is far too late.

Comes through this?  The morality rate isn’t anywhere near the level necessary to destabilize the US government.  You’re starting with an assumption that isn’t supported by data.

With regard to full scale lockdowns and martial law, what the heck kind of country do you think the US is? Troops enforcing a nationwide stay at home order? Restricting constitutional rights without a permissible constitutional basis? All no chance.

None of that is even plausible. Even if someone wanted to and legally could, it’s logistically impossible to enforce a lockdown by military occupation short of using bombs and machine guns.  The US is an enormous country and our military really isn’t that huge. Last I checked, we have like 1.3million members of our armed forces but 330 million people over 3.5 million square miles.

It's absolutely possible in specific areas. You might have to change your laws or even ignore them for a bit, for the public good. The NZ lockdown wasn't actually legal for the first wee while, did you know that? Obviously, we don't have as many absolute fucking idiots to police, and the ones we do don't have guns. They just kind of whine a lot. No one pays them any attention and/or they get arrested for being absolute fucking idiots.

Meanwhile, you've made quite a few assumptions yourself, one of which is that the only factor here for destabilisation is the death rate. That's not actually how it works. What happens when it's the main income earner in a family that dies? Or when it's the owner of a small business that employs a dozen people? Or when you can no longer get specialist nursing staff because they're all sick or dead? What happens when the person that dies is the president? Or when senior officials are seriously ill? It doesn't take a lot for things to break down to the point of dysfunction. You would think that perhaps the USA might be a little bit more aware of that NOW than they were this time last year...... No? Well, you're about to get another lesson.

You asked specifically what kind of country I thought the US was? I think it's deeply flawed, all freedumb/no responsibility, and it probably needs to dump that ridiculous constitution and start over. The only useful thing you guys have going for you right now is that the real idiots are also far more likely to contract covid. With a bit of luck, a few million deaths will raise the national IQ enough to actually start moving in a more positive direction.

We’re doing pretty well in the grand scheme of things. COVID isn’t going to fundamentally change America. 




I pity you. You're heading into a nightmare with absolutely no mental preparation. I'm very sorry for you.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on November 14, 2020, 03:45:03 PM
ITT: “your Constitution is old and outdated” (I can read between the lines, you mean the 2A

Also ITT: “you should use soldiers to lock people down in their homes!”


The irony is rich and delicious, more so because I’m sure people don’t see it that way.

But yea, that’s exactly why we have a Constitution and those rights.

There are plenty of places without the insane lack of gun laws enjoyed in the US.  Yet the only country that I'm aware of which has used soldiers to lock down citizens has been China.  It's almost like gun rights have nothing to do with the situation.

Furthermore, throughout the year US government forces have been illegally suppressing peaceful protests (enshrined in the US constitution).  Weak gun regulation hasn't helped to fix the situation at all.  It's almost like the whole idea of 'fighting off the tyrannical government with my small arms collection' is fundamentally flawed and unworkable in reality.

We used soldiers to lock off the CBD during the Christchurch quakes. It was no-go for months. If there was extreme civil unrest or the possibility of it, I have no doubt the services would be called in to assist.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on November 14, 2020, 03:51:03 PM

You asked specifically what kind of country I thought the US was? I think it's deeply flawed, all freedumb/no responsibility, and it probably needs to dump that ridiculous constitution and start over.

In the words of Justice Scalia: "It's game over"  if a concentration of power ever obtains here.

America's constitutional, tripartite  scheme of three coequal branches that check and balance each other serves as a preventative against concentrations of power inimical to our liberties.

AnnaGrowsAMustache, if you lived in America would  you want President Trump (or any president)  to have powers not subject to constitutional limitations?

We Americans would not tolerate such an  unthinkable repugnance.

 Judge Learned Hand said "Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it; no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it."

In America, I trust that our undying love for our liberties  and resolute  insistence that they be ever preserved    precludes  any national decision  to   "dump that ridiculous constitution and start over."

Long live our American Constitution, the superior charter that guarantees our liberties.

Dude, your liberties are completely dependent on other people playing the game. Not a document. Currently your personal freedoms are being restricted by a minority of people who refuse to stay home and wear a mask. And there's the small issue or your personal freedom (your right to vote and have it counted) being called into question by your president - and that same minority of people. And these are the good old days! You get back to me in Feb/March when the shit has truly hit the fan and see how much you're willing to stand up for someone else's "right" to infect everyone around them.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on November 14, 2020, 04:07:11 PM
I'd like to know what the people on this thread going on about freedom suggest happens now? If you're not willing to set aside those "freedoms" for half a dozen weeks, in order to save a million or more lives.... what do you suggest be done?

The thing I don't think americans, specifically, understand about freedom is that you don't have it. No one living in a society has complete freedom. We trade our some of personal freedoms for the huge advantages of living withing a society. You're not allowed to do a hundred things, every single day - you can't drive through a red light, or piss in the street, or take your neighbour's mail, or discipline their kids, or walk onto someone else's property. We all live in a very controlled state. Everything about our lives, from the time we get up to when we eat lunch is dictated. What about bigger freedoms? The freedom to be who you are regardless of race, gender or orientation? I'm guessing a great many people would say that those freedoms in the USA are deeply problematic. What about the absolute basics, then? The freedoms related to being healthy. Yeah, that's exactly what I'm talking about..... and you guys are going on about freedom and rights as though they're a positive thing. MILLIONS of americans will die of covid without extreme intervention - but you're crying "freedom" at the thought of that intervention. So what do you suggest? How are you going to protect the right of people to go about their day without being infected by the plague by someone who thinks not wearing a mask is a human right? How?

Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Paul der Krake on November 14, 2020, 04:12:16 PM
Thanks for the societal and constitutional diagnosis, Nurse Anna from New Zealand.

Were you actually looking for answers to your original question or merely trying to offer your opinion as to what a country you don’t live in should be doing?




Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: maizefolk on November 14, 2020, 04:15:43 PM
I pity you. You're heading into a nightmare with absolutely no mental preparation. I'm very sorry for you.

With a bit of luck, a few million deaths will raise the national IQ enough to actually start moving in a more positive direction.

New Zealand had a total of only four fourty cases of coronavirus per 100,000 residents since the start of the pandemic. My county alone is at four thousand cases per 100,000 residents and counting.

So forgive me if I am Not. Particularly. Interested. in your views of what a nightmare is or isn't or how you think my country would be better off if millions of us died.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on November 14, 2020, 05:23:28 PM

You asked specifically what kind of country I thought the US was? I think it's deeply flawed, all freedumb/no responsibility, and it probably needs to dump that ridiculous constitution and start over.

In the words of Justice Scalia: "It's game over"  if a concentration of power ever obtains here.

America's constitutional, tripartite  scheme of three coequal branches that check and balance each other serves as a preventative against concentrations of power inimical to our liberties.

AnnaGrowsAMustache, if you lived in America would  you want President Trump (or any president)  to have powers not subject to constitutional limitations?

We Americans would not tolerate such an  unthinkable repugnance.

 Judge Learned Hand said "Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it; no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it."

In America, I trust that our undying love for our liberties  and resolute  insistence that they be ever preserved    precludes  any national decision  to   "dump that ridiculous constitution and start over."

Long live our American Constitution, the superior charter that guarantees our liberties.

Dude, your liberties are completely dependent on other people playing the game. Not a document.

You are correct about "other people playing the game." Ordered liberty depends on it.

One of the Framers said  “Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people." The secular version of this assertion  is that liberty flourishes when the people abide by  the law.  When people do misbehave (don't play "the game") and violate the law eventually there will be a reaction and calls for corrective, restrictive legislation  as has happened in the case of gun violence.




 Currently your personal freedoms are being restricted by a minority of people who refuse to stay home and wear a mask.

I have never questioned the legitimacy of any entity that, pursuant to its police power,  orders masking, limits the size of gatherings, etc. Since the onset of the pandemic I have never agreed with or supported anyone who flouts any legitimate exercise of the police power. And I've always worn a mask when in public even though there was no order to do so.

I have posted about abusive exercise of the police power as happened when a preacher told his congregants to drive their vehicles to the church's parking lot and keep their windows closed while they listened to the preacher's broadcast on their vehicle's radio.

In this case the police came to the parking  lot and each congregant was issued a  $500 fine.  That was an unconstitutional overreach, a clear-cut  abuse of the police power in violation of the First Amendment's Free Exercise Clause.



I remember, months ago,  how upset you were about "your rights."

 If you reread my response you will see that I said "The  federal government and the States, as well as the States'  political subdivisions,  do  have extra latitude in the exercise   of their existing power in times of extraordinary emergency, exercises of power that permissibly result in atypically restrictive regulations, orders, local ordinances, etc.

However,   "Emergency does not create [extraconstitutional] power."


author=AnnaGrowsAMustache .
Your nation is on fire. Your federal government has emergency powers. Someone take some frickin responsibility for actually solving the issue at hand ie you're all going to die of a virus inside a month, and stop blathering on about your rights. Your rights mean fuck all if you're dead. Idiots. Honestly!




The Framers endeavored  to design a country of enduring, maximum liberty.

The Framers'  dread of  a concentration of power is the overarching reason they formed  a tripartite, checks-and-balances  national government.
 
And  in keeping with their commitment to dispersion of power they granted  each State its own sovereignty under the Tenth Amendment's principle of federalism.

The result is an America   comprised of 51 sovereign powers, the federal government plus the 50 States.

The  federal government and the States, as well as the States'  political subdivisions,  do  have extra latitude in the exercise   of their existing power in times of extraordinary emergency, exercises of power that permissibly result in atypically restrictive regulations, orders, local ordinances, etc.

However,   "Emergency does not create [extraconstitutional] power."

Federal power, State power, and the power of political subdivisions "are not altered by emergency."

Untrammeled power is repugnant to the Constitution's undergirding principle of dispersion of power.








Home Building & Loan Assn. v. Blaisdell 1934



Emergency does not create power.

Emergency does not increase granted power or remove or diminish the restrictions imposed upon power granted or reserved.

The Constitution was adopted in a period of grave emergency.

Its grants of power to the Federal Government and its limitations of the power of the States were determined in the light of emergency, and they are not altered by emergency.

 What power was thus granted and what limitations were thus imposed are questions which have always been, and always will be, the subject of close examination under our constitutional system.



Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: fuzzy math on November 14, 2020, 05:34:30 PM
Thanks for the societal and constitutional diagnosis, Nurse Anna from New Zealand.

Were you actually looking for answers to your original question or merely trying to offer your opinion as to what a country you don’t live in should be doing?

She was looking for a platform where she could respond to multitudes of individual comments with personalized rants about what she hates about America. She's been quite rabid on the forums with her American hating in all of the COVID and presidential threads. I came here because I was genuinely surprised she had come to a conclusion that military style shut downs were possible and I wanted to give her the benefit of the doubt that she might be able to form a line of thinking that didn't go straight into her normal routine.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: FINate on November 14, 2020, 06:20:52 PM
I pity you. You're heading into a nightmare with absolutely no mental preparation. I'm very sorry for you.

With a bit of luck, a few million deaths will raise the national IQ enough to actually start moving in a more positive direction.

New Zealand had a total of only four fourty cases of coronavirus per 100,000 residents since the start of the pandemic. My county alone is at four thousand cases per 100,000 residents and counting.

So forgive me if I am Not. Particularly. Interested. in your views of what a nightmare is or isn't or how you think my country would be better off if millions of us died.

I agree. Wishing COVID death on millions of people because of their politics is one of the most bigoted comments I've seen around here. Thank $DIETY we have a written constitution that keeps such petty tyrants [mostly] in check.

@AnnaGrowsAMustache In light of such comments, your original post expressing concern for the well-being of the USA seems rather insincere. Please spare us your crocodile tears and enlighten us, what's your real motivation for this thread? Just to spew hate? Trolling? Needing a sense of superiority?
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on November 14, 2020, 06:36:11 PM
I pity you. You're heading into a nightmare with absolutely no mental preparation. I'm very sorry for you.

With a bit of luck, a few million deaths will raise the national IQ enough to actually start moving in a more positive direction.

New Zealand had a total of only four fourty cases of coronavirus per 100,000 residents since the start of the pandemic. My county alone is at four thousand cases per 100,000 residents and counting.

So forgive me if I am Not. Particularly. Interested. in your views of what a nightmare is or isn't or how you think my country would be better off if millions of us died.

I agree. Wishing COVID death on millions of people because of their politics is one of the most bigoted comments I've seen around here. Thank $DIETY we have a written constitution that keeps such petty tyrants [mostly] in check.

@AnnaGrowsAMustache In light of such comments, your original post expressing concern for the well-being of the USA seems rather insincere. Please spare us your crocodile tears and enlighten us, what's your real motivation for this thread? Just to spew hate? Trolling? Needing a sense of superiority?

I didn't wish death on millions. Millions will die anyway. That might work in your favour given who they are likely to be. By all means, bitch and moan about a misinterpreted post while acting in a way that WILL end up with millions dead.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on November 14, 2020, 06:41:15 PM
I pity you. You're heading into a nightmare with absolutely no mental preparation. I'm very sorry for you.

With a bit of luck, a few million deaths will raise the national IQ enough to actually start moving in a more positive direction.

New Zealand had a total of only four fourty cases of coronavirus per 100,000 residents since the start of the pandemic. My county alone is at four thousand cases per 100,000 residents and counting.

So forgive me if I am Not. Particularly. Interested. in your views of what a nightmare is or isn't or how you think my country would be better off if millions of us died.

WHY. DO. YOU. THINK. THAT. IS?????

COULD IT POSSIBLY BE BECAUSE WE HAD A LOCKDOWN BEFORE IT WAS TOO LATE? ONE THAT WAS ILLEGAL AT THE TIME, IE AGAINST OUR LAWS BUT IN THE PUBLIC GOOD??

Honestly, Americans can't come up with a plan on their own, they won't listen to science, they won't listen to people who have done the work and got a result. I give up.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on November 14, 2020, 06:45:03 PM
Thanks for the societal and constitutional diagnosis, Nurse Anna from New Zealand.

Were you actually looking for answers to your original question or merely trying to offer your opinion as to what a country you don’t live in should be doing?

Oh, screw it. Do what you want, all of you. You're like a bunch of little kids who insist on eating all the ice cream and then whine about getting sick. Enjoy your freedoms.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: FINate on November 14, 2020, 06:45:30 PM
I pity you. You're heading into a nightmare with absolutely no mental preparation. I'm very sorry for you.

With a bit of luck, a few million deaths will raise the national IQ enough to actually start moving in a more positive direction.

New Zealand had a total of only four fourty cases of coronavirus per 100,000 residents since the start of the pandemic. My county alone is at four thousand cases per 100,000 residents and counting.

So forgive me if I am Not. Particularly. Interested. in your views of what a nightmare is or isn't or how you think my country would be better off if millions of us died.

I agree. Wishing COVID death on millions of people because of their politics is one of the most bigoted comments I've seen around here. Thank $DIETY we have a written constitution that keeps such petty tyrants [mostly] in check.

@AnnaGrowsAMustache In light of such comments, your original post expressing concern for the well-being of the USA seems rather insincere. Please spare us your crocodile tears and enlighten us, what's your real motivation for this thread? Just to spew hate? Trolling? Needing a sense of superiority?

I didn't wish death on millions. Millions will die anyway. That might work in your favour given who they are likely to be. By all means, bitch and moan about a misinterpreted post while acting in a way that WILL end up with millions dead.

So please tell us, what is this "bit of luck" you're hoping for? Do you consider it lucky if the right kind of people, by your definition, die from COVID? Who made you master of the universe that you get to decide who's worthy of life? Honestly, I'm struggling to interpret this another way, so help me out.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on November 14, 2020, 06:52:21 PM
I pity you. You're heading into a nightmare with absolutely no mental preparation. I'm very sorry for you.

With a bit of luck, a few million deaths will raise the national IQ enough to actually start moving in a more positive direction.

New Zealand had a total of only four fourty cases of coronavirus per 100,000 residents since the start of the pandemic. My county alone is at four thousand cases per 100,000 residents and counting.

So forgive me if I am Not. Particularly. Interested. in your views of what a nightmare is or isn't or how you think my country would be better off if millions of us died.

I agree. Wishing COVID death on millions of people because of their politics is one of the most bigoted comments I've seen around here. Thank $DIETY we have a written constitution that keeps such petty tyrants [mostly] in check.

@AnnaGrowsAMustache In light of such comments, your original post expressing concern for the well-being of the USA seems rather insincere. Please spare us your crocodile tears and enlighten us, what's your real motivation for this thread? Just to spew hate? Trolling? Needing a sense of superiority?

I didn't wish death on millions. Millions will die anyway. That might work in your favour given who they are likely to be. By all means, bitch and moan about a misinterpreted post while acting in a way that WILL end up with millions dead.

So please tell us, then, what is this "bit of luck" you're hoping for then? Do you consider it lucky if the right kind of people, by your definition, die from COVID? Who made you master of the universe that you get to decide who's worthy of life? Honestly, I'm struggling to interpret this another way, so help me out.

Dude, YOUR people, YOUR government, are deciding who lives and who dies. YOUR political situation is deciding that. Don't bitch and moan at me for pointing it out. YOUR actions, or inactions, I mean YOUR personal actions or inactions decide this. If the covidiots die in their millions, I have no problem with that. But I didn't decide it and I'm not wishing it on them. America did this. Freedom, right? Congratulations.....? You guys keep your fucking freedoms on your side of the planet, a'ight?
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: AnnaGrowsAMustache on November 14, 2020, 06:53:30 PM
I'm done. And so are you lot, which is kind of funny in an ironic way. Thread closed.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Daley on November 14, 2020, 06:55:31 PM
I have absolutely nothing meaningful to contribute to this deeply concerning thread, but I've been dying to address one thing from Paul's first post:

Sometimes I wonder if the right answer would have been to mandate absolutely nothing, let 2-3 million die and be done with it. Sure we would have had to prop up the life insurance industry and get Costco in the coffin business, but that's small potatoes compared to what's going on now.

Oh my dear, innocent lad, Costco has already been in the death merchant business (https://www.costco.com/funeral.html) for 16 years (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2004-08-17/costco-coffins-in-aisle-9)...

...so are Walmart (https://www.walmart.com/browse/home/funeral/4044_4431611?cat_id=4044_4431611&facet=retailer%3AWalmart.com) and Amazon (https://www.amazon.com/b?node=8622234011).

Costco's most modestly priced receptacle for your non-dehydrated loved ones is the Prime President (https://www.costco.com/the-president-casket-by-prime.product.100379576.html). Certainly there has to be a joke quilted in there, somewhere.

That is all.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Zamboni on November 14, 2020, 06:59:19 PM
Lol, time for the late great George Carlin:

American Freedom:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJHkvcVwjTc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJHkvcVwjTc)

American Rights (from timestamp 4:30):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWiBt-pqp0E&list=RDhWiBt-pqp0E&start_radio=1&t=65 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWiBt-pqp0E&list=RDhWiBt-pqp0E&start_radio=1&t=65)

Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: maizefolk on November 14, 2020, 07:14:02 PM
I pity you. You're heading into a nightmare with absolutely no mental preparation. I'm very sorry for you.

With a bit of luck, a few million deaths will raise the national IQ enough to actually start moving in a more positive direction.

New Zealand had a total of only four fourty cases of coronavirus per 100,000 residents since the start of the pandemic. My county alone is at four thousand cases per 100,000 residents and counting.

So forgive me if I am Not. Particularly. Interested. in your views of what a nightmare is or isn't or how you think my country would be better off if millions of us died.

WHY. DO. YOU. THINK. THAT. IS?????

COULD IT POSSIBLY BE BECAUSE WE HAD A LOCKDOWN BEFORE IT WAS TOO LATE? ONE THAT WAS ILLEGAL AT THE TIME, IE AGAINST OUR LAWS BUT IN THE PUBLIC GOOD??

Nice attempt to pivot. So you acknowledge you have not have your friends and neighbors fall ill? That you haven't watched as hospital after hospital in your city maxes out, as doctors and nurses burn out? Watching your sole human contacts through computer screens knowing that every week, every day, the chances those people you can now only see through a computer could end up in a hospital themselves is going up? Because, since you haven't, let's just agree you have absolutely zero idea the kind of a nightmare we're experiencing already, let alone the nightmare we're likely in for in the next couple of months.

I sure wish we'd had better leadership here in the USA when the coronavirus hit. With both luck and rapid action last spring we'd be living in much less of a nightmare right now. But you know what I hate most about the political leadership we had in 2020? That they knew their choices would likely lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands, if not millions, but the callously accepted that.

But even they weren't so morally bankrupt as to hope for deaths of millions. Hoping for "with a little luck" the death of millions of people is beyond the pale. I shouldn't even have to add this disclaimer, but hoping for the deaths of millions of people is beyond the pale regardless of those people's political beliefs.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: big_owl on November 14, 2020, 07:17:45 PM
Wow Anna, you really bared your ass in this thread. Time to slink away to the woods for a while.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Chris22 on November 14, 2020, 08:00:30 PM
I pity you. You're heading into a nightmare with absolutely no mental preparation. I'm very sorry for you.

With a bit of luck, a few million deaths will raise the national IQ enough to actually start moving in a more positive direction.

New Zealand had a total of only four fourty cases of coronavirus per 100,000 residents since the start of the pandemic. My county alone is at four thousand cases per 100,000 residents and counting.

So forgive me if I am Not. Particularly. Interested. in your views of what a nightmare is or isn't or how you think my country would be better off if millions of us died.

WHY. DO. YOU. THINK. THAT. IS?????

COULD IT POSSIBLY BE BECAUSE WE HAD A LOCKDOWN BEFORE IT WAS TOO LATE? ONE THAT WAS ILLEGAL AT THE TIME, IE AGAINST OUR LAWS BUT IN THE PUBLIC GOOD??

Honestly, Americans can't come up with a plan on their own, they won't listen to science, they won't listen to people who have done the work and got a result. I give up.

(https://www.bdoutdoors.com/forums/attachments/f135f353-f923-46e2-82ae-20aa2d176c12-jpeg.1218399/)
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 14, 2020, 08:04:04 PM
I didn't get the impression that Anna wants Americans to die.  I got the impression that she is incredibly frustrated and unhappy that Americans are letting freedom (or as I have seen it recently, freedumb) rhetoric cause many unneeded deaths. 

In case Americans haven't realized, lots of people elsewhere watch what happens in the US.  Here in Canada, some of what is trickling over the border is anti-mask rhetoric and protests and ignoring social gathering numbers guidelines.  So now our cases are also heading up, thanks to religious services, schools (people get sick elsewhere and bring it to school) and social gatherings in homes.  Restaurants right now are a lot safer place to get together than private homes are.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Paper Chaser on November 14, 2020, 08:10:19 PM
I always find it fascinating how so many non-Americans that post here get so invested in American politics. Why are you so invested in the policies and domestic ongoings of a nation where you don't live? Why the vitriol? There have to be numerous better ways to invest your time and energy right?
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Abe on November 14, 2020, 08:18:07 PM
I’d like to clarify that I don’t think there’s any projection of millions dead in the US from covid, unless the vaccine effort doesn’t pan out. Then that would occur over several years.
Regarding the rest - we can mitigate our exposure to a large extent. It’s a matter of survival for some, and inconvenience for others. There is a whole spectrum of illness. Ultimately I feel bad for workers who can’t do so from home and are exposed to unsanitary conditions. Tighter regulation of working conditions will be much higher yield for slowing the spread, with a strong precedent of laws supporting federal enforcement. We are seeing the highest rate of infection in rural areas due to poor working conditions (noncompliance amongst workers, poor enforcement by employers and no complain d amongst customers) and crowded living conditions. This will not bees fixed by mask mandates.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Wolfpack Mustachian on November 14, 2020, 08:20:17 PM
I'm done. And so are you lot, which is kind of funny in an ironic way. Thread closed.

I mean, I guess at this point it's pointless to comment on this, but what do you actually want to hear? Americans are commenting that there will be no military lockdown. Not to be blunt, but that's your answer. You can argue the wisdom of that action up one side and down the other, but to have the American military enforce a true nationwide lockdown shows me that you lack a grasp of American culture and geography. It's not feasible, nor would people enforce it even if it was. So, yeah, that's the answer to your question, but if you want to rant some more, that's cool too....
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: FINate on November 14, 2020, 08:36:47 PM
I'm willing to give OP the benefit of the doubt and accept that maybe she just phrased things in an extremely terrible way w.r.t. millions of deaths. Certainly I've put my foot in my mouth on more than one occasion.

However, I'd like to request people be empathetic and compassionate when posting about the pandemic. This has destroyed lives and livelihoods. It has been very hard on mental health. I'm an extreme introvert and yet even I'm feeling the effects of ~8 months of social distancing. Poor extroverted DW is having a much tougher time of it. My heart breaks for my kids... all the kids struggling with not being with friends and missing out on school. I dutifully mask up when going into stores, but that's also getting old. I know people who've died from it, and others who got it and still haven't fully recovered months later. And this has been exceptionally difficult for the poor, heaping misery upon misery.

Yes, Trump bungled the response, and there is the problem of covidiots, but it's not as simple as people being stupid. Weather, fatigue, holidays... these also complicate the picture.  Even California is experiencing a large increase in cases, same with much of the EU.

ETA: I'm sincerely happy things have gone much better for the folks in NZ. I'll gladly cheer for any victory, however small. Just wish OP would consider that it's not a one-size-fits all approach.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Paul der Krake on November 14, 2020, 09:11:22 PM
I think it's pretty clear by now that OP was only interested in getting "lol USA is fucked amirite" answers. I hope she has time to rest, it must be exhausting always being the smartest person in the room.

I find it pretty amazing how she managed to alienate a forum that's filled with people who agree with her underlying premise that the pandemic has been very poorly handled. Talk about shit delivery.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Adventine on November 14, 2020, 09:21:22 PM
Yep, whenever I see one of OP's posts (here or on any other thread), I always wonder, "Why is she so angry all the time?"

I am not an American, I am based outside the US, and I do believe the US got a lot of things wrong with its COVID response.

I am also amazed by New Zealand's response to the crisis and wish more countries, including my own, would do the same.

But a "Serves you right and now millions of people are going to die because Americans are so stupid" attitude does not help anybody.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 15, 2020, 12:48:39 AM
I think it's pretty clear by now that OP was only interested in getting "lol USA is fucked amirite" answers.

And on that she is probably right. It does not follow that there will be a military lockdown.

Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Dicey on November 15, 2020, 01:05:15 AM


Another sister told me that Biden was going to require every citizen to don a mask from the moment they step outside their doors. (Guess who she voted for?) You know what? If that's what it takes, I'm all for it. However, a thorough Goog showed no evidence of such a proposal at this time. Yeesh!

I am willing to do whatever it takes.


Your sister is misinformed.

There is no federal police power or specific, presidential power akin to the States' police power so no president can order nationwide  masking.

We can be sure that every day Biden and his transition team are using back channels to organize and coordinate the resources of federal and state agencies to do battle against COVID-19.
Uh, that was exactly my point. It is scary the disinformation the Biden haters are spreading and really, truly believe.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Wolfpack Mustachian on November 15, 2020, 06:13:25 AM
Yep, whenever I see one of OP's posts (here or on any other thread), I always wonder, "Why is she so angry all the time?"

I am not an American, I am based outside the US, and I do believe the US got a lot of things wrong with its COVID response.

I am also amazed by New Zealand's response to the crisis and wish more countries, including my own, would do the same.

But a "Serves you right and now millions of people are going to die because Americans are so stupid" attitude does not help anybody.

Exactly. OP clearly loathes at least a lot about America if not America as a whole, and anytime a conversation about America comes up, OP is extremely angry, argumentative, etc. It seems to have lead to poor posts like this one, where even if OP didn't mean to say what they said in the way they said it, they were apparently so angry that they still did and have essentially doubled down on it...
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: ender on November 15, 2020, 06:51:04 AM
America has had a ton of tension between individual liberty and collective safety. Covid (and lockdowns) are hardly the first instance this happens.

You can argue all you want about how the United States is horrible but it's pretty clear you have complete comfort in sacrificing your individual freedoms for the sake of collective good. Which is fine but realistically is entirely not the paradigm much of the United States operates on.

Even ignoring individual preferences on this continuum, the entire country is largely decentralized. You can argue this is a problem and that the American federal government should have more authority. Whatever. It's not the case right now that the President can issue a mandate to shut down the country for six weeks and it's legally required for all states to fall in line.

Disregarding the political structure of the USA while bashing on it seems misguided.

It's not much different than arguing just as vehemently the United Nations should have imposed a military enforced lockdown of every single member state for the duration of Covid.

I'd like to know what the people on this thread going on about freedom suggest happens now? If you're not willing to set aside those "freedoms" for half a dozen weeks, in order to save a million or more lives.... what do you suggest be done?

The reason people bring up the "freedom" angle is because you are callously suggesting the United States go into federal government enforced martial law for several months.

Perhaps you are comfortable throwing out laws and legal precedent for the greater good. While Trump certainly had his share of issues in how he individually handled the response to Covid, trying to suggest the American president can legally even issue a mask mandate let alone mandate the federal government shut down individual states is simply an ignorance of the American system of government. It's debatable whether it's even in the purview of Congress to do such things.

Overwhelmingly since the United States was founded, the military has no domestic control. In almost all cases, when the national guard is deployed it is at the request of local/state governments. There is a reason people have (correctly) criticized Trump for sending federal agents into Portland and other cities which have had protests.

You can bash on the American system of government all you want. You can prefer a consolidated government which is hierarchal where states are subordinate to a federal government. But you need to realize the things which you are begging Trump to do are pretty conclusively against the American legal and governmental system.

And let's be honest with ourselves here. If Trump had declared martial law in February/March and unconstitutionally deployed the military to large areas to enforce martial law, you know damn well people would have reacted and criticized him (on both sides). And that criticism would have been 100% deserved, because the POTUS doesn't have that ability.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: maizefolk on November 15, 2020, 07:52:51 AM
I'd like to know what the people on this thread going on about freedom suggest happens now?  If you're not willing to set aside those "freedoms" for half a dozen weeks, in order to save a million or more lives.... what do you suggest be done?

The thing I don't think americans, specifically, understand about freedom is that you don't have it.

It is perhaps worth keeping in mind that when OP posted this the statement above, directed at "the people in this thread going on about freedom", not a single person in the thread had so much as used the word "freedom" except for her (of course until this post she'd been spelling it "freedumb.")

ETA: I'm sincerely happy things have gone much better for the folks in NZ. I'll gladly cheer for any victory, however small.

+1 And this needed to be said, thank you for saying it, FINate.

I'm also sincerely happy the folks of NZ (and many other nations around the world) are not experiencing the COVID epidemic the way we are here in the USA. If they'd like to do a victory lap for reacting faster and more effectively, go for it! It was a hard thing to do, they pulled it off, and we didn't.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 15, 2020, 09:21:18 AM
I always find it fascinating how so many non-Americans that post here get so invested in American politics. Why are you so invested in the policies and domestic ongoings of a nation where you don't live? Why the vitriol? There have to be numerous better ways to invest your time and energy right?

Why do I care about what happens in the US?  Because what the US does affects my country (Canada). The newest metaphor floating around is that we live in the apartment above a meth lab.  I'm looking forward to that one dying.  But it doesn't change the fact that what the US does affects lots of people in other countries.  So yes, we pay attention.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: fuzzy math on November 15, 2020, 10:34:42 AM
Yep, whenever I see one of OP's posts (here or on any other thread), I always wonder, "Why is she so angry all the time?"

I am not an American, I am based outside the US, and I do believe the US got a lot of things wrong with its COVID response.

I am also amazed by New Zealand's response to the crisis and wish more countries, including my own, would do the same.

But a "Serves you right and now millions of people are going to die because Americans are so stupid" attitude does not help anybody.

Exactly. OP clearly loathes at least a lot about America if not America as a whole, and anytime a conversation about America comes up, OP is extremely angry, argumentative, etc. It seems to have lead to poor posts like this one, where even if OP didn't mean to say what they said in the way they said it, they were apparently so angry that they still did and have essentially doubled down on it...

Going to third this comment

OP, its time to do some serious soul searching if this many people separately came to the same conclusion about the way you present yourself here.
Your repeated all caps style of posting is off putting.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Zamboni on November 15, 2020, 10:38:05 AM
^Probably because ALL CAPS reminds us all so much of our idiotic 45th President.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on November 15, 2020, 11:05:04 AM

Overwhelmingly since the United States was founded, the military has no domestic control. In almost all cases, when the national guard is deployed it is at the request of local/state governments.



One exception I know of is Eisenhower's issuance of Executive  Order 10730 to counter  the infamous, invidious  obduracy  of Arkansas  Governor Faubus who opposed desegregation of public schools in Little Rock.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on November 15, 2020, 11:29:21 AM
I'm willing to give OP the benefit of the doubt and accept that maybe she just phrased things in an extremely terrible way w.r.t. millions of deaths. Certainly I've put my foot in my mouth on more than one occasion.



I too give the OP the benefit of the doubt.

I (as do others) understand that from time to time discussions of controversial subject matter lead to intemperate statements  by impassioned or disputatious posters.

Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: OtherJen on November 15, 2020, 11:43:04 AM
I'm willing to give OP the benefit of the doubt and accept that maybe she just phrased things in an extremely terrible way w.r.t. millions of deaths. Certainly I've put my foot in my mouth on more than one occasion.



I too give the OP the benefit of the doubt.

I (as do others) understand that from time to time discussions of controversial subject matter lead to intemperate statements  by impassioned or disputatious posters.

The poster is a friend and is genuinely concerned. I agree both that she deserves the benefit of the doubt and that the phrasing was not helpful.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on November 15, 2020, 12:09:22 PM
I always find it fascinating how so many non-Americans that post here get so invested in American politics. Why are you so invested in the policies and domestic ongoings of a nation where you don't live?

What puzzles me is the constancy of some of the foreign Mu$tachian$' focus on American politics.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on November 15, 2020, 12:31:45 PM
I'm willing to give OP the benefit of the doubt and accept that maybe she just phrased things in an extremely terrible way w.r.t. millions of deaths. Certainly I've put my foot in my mouth on more than one occasion.



I too give the OP the benefit of the doubt.

I (as do others) understand that from time to time discussions of controversial subject matter lead to intemperate statements  by impassioned or disputatious posters.

The poster is a friend and is genuinely concerned. I agree both that she deserves the benefit of the doubt and that the phrasing was not helpful.

Before I read your post I firmly believed that  OP is  genuinely concerned and upset which has caused her great frustration that led her  to make  intemperate statements.

I simply do not believe  OP harbors any wish for   any person anywhere  to suffer or die from COVID-19.

After all, she is a Mu$tachian.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: OtherJen on November 15, 2020, 12:35:54 PM
I always find it fascinating how so many non-Americans that post here get so invested in American politics. Why are you so invested in the policies and domestic ongoings of a nation where you don't live?

What puzzles me is the constancy of some of the foreign Mu$tachian$' focus on American politics.

From what I understand, the double-whammy of the US election and COVID is quite literally the main topic of news in much of the world right now, and people who give a shit feel powerless to do anything.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: BNgarden on November 15, 2020, 12:36:38 PM
...
What puzzles me is the constancy of some of the foreign Mu$tachian$' focus on American politics.

What people in major power states (as in countries) sometimes don't seem to get is how outsized the influence can be from their countries' policies and market moves.  And that citizens of affected nations can actually hold (more than) two things in their heads, both the great powers' moves / changes, plus their own domestic politics and myriad other world regions' and countries' actions shift their dynamic.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: wenchsenior on November 15, 2020, 12:39:35 PM
...
What puzzles me is the constancy of some of the foreign Mu$tachian$' focus on American politics.

What people in major power states (as in countries) sometimes don't seem to get is how outsized the influence can be from their countries' policies and market moves.  And that citizens of affected nations can actually hold (more than) two things in their heads, both the great powers' moves / changes, plus their own domestic politics and myriad other world regions' and countries' actions shift their dynamic.

We did a 3 week vacation in Australia about 10 years ago, and read the local papers every day, and BIG chunks of the papers were taken up with British or American news or politics. Nitty gritty stuff, even fairly local issues. It was very surprising to us (esp given that our goal in reading the papers was to try to understand Australian politics).
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Adventine on November 15, 2020, 12:51:08 PM
Foreign Mustachians pay attention to what happens to the US because the success/failure of the American COVID response has actual economic consequences for other countries.

This article is a good explanation:

When the U.S. sneezes, the world catches a cold. What happens when it has severe COVID-19? (http://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN24L0EO)
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Paul der Krake on November 15, 2020, 01:16:47 PM
...
What puzzles me is the constancy of some of the foreign Mu$tachian$' focus on American politics.

What people in major power states (as in countries) sometimes don't seem to get is how outsized the influence can be from their countries' policies and market moves.  And that citizens of affected nations can actually hold (more than) two things in their heads, both the great powers' moves / changes, plus their own domestic politics and myriad other world regions' and countries' actions shift their dynamic.
That doesn't explain all of it. Germans know a hell of a lot more about US politics than French politics, even though they are literally next door to each other and enormous trading takes place between the two.

The reality is that the US still wields unmatched soft power over the West, so people tune in and watch.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: SotI on November 15, 2020, 01:33:38 PM
...
What puzzles me is the constancy of some of the foreign Mu$tachian$' focus on American politics.

What people in major power states (as in countries) sometimes don't seem to get is how outsized the influence can be from their countries' policies and market moves.  And that citizens of affected nations can actually hold (more than) two things in their heads, both the great powers' moves / changes, plus their own domestic politics and myriad other world regions' and countries' actions shift their dynamic.
That doesn't explain all of it. Germans know a hell of a lot more about US politics than French politics, even though they are literally next door to each other and enormous trading takes place between the two.

The reality is that the US still wields unmatched soft power over the West, so people tune in and watch.
Makes sense.
Notably the cultural impact of US "stuff" via TV and social media on other countries should not be underestimated. Especially, for pretty much all generations since Gen X p, at least, US culture and narratives have seem almost next-door from childhood, even more so than the actual next door cultural neighbours (My parents' generation was much more influenced by their European neighbours, in comparison).

That's why you get such absurd issues like a pseudo-US race conflict narrative parroted in some communities in Europe despite far different - and hetetogeneous - historical settings across the European continent.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 15, 2020, 01:52:42 PM
The USA also permeates global media. Sit down and watch the BBC in Singapore and half the international coverage will be about the USA.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Cranky on November 15, 2020, 02:04:52 PM
I don’t think there will be martial law. I don’t think there will even be a national mask mandate. I think a lot of people in my area aren’t even worrying about Covid any more, but are deeply pissed that restaurants might be closed again.

I don’t think millions are going to die, but given the demographics of who does die, I surely do not believe that the right wing is highly motivated to prevent that.

We’ve pretty much stayed home since March, and we’re going to keep on with that.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Wolfpack Mustachian on November 15, 2020, 02:37:35 PM
I'm willing to give OP the benefit of the doubt and accept that maybe she just phrased things in an extremely terrible way w.r.t. millions of deaths. Certainly I've put my foot in my mouth on more than one occasion.



I too give the OP the benefit of the doubt.

I (as do others) understand that from time to time discussions of controversial subject matter lead to intemperate statements  by impassioned or disputatious posters.

The poster is a friend and is genuinely concerned. I agree both that she deserves the benefit of the doubt and that the phrasing was not helpful.

I get that, and I know AGAM's a regular. I've had conversations with AGAM in non-American bashing threads, and there's been good insights and they've provided good dialogue.

I do think it's important, though, for someone to realize when they're just too angry on a subject to have an effective dialogue. Do I believe that AGAM wants or would be happy with millions of American deaths? Of course not. They're not a monster. Do I think that it would be helpful to them to do some soul searching as a person and realize they're probably just a little too angry and irrational on the topic of America, which is leading to comments and a perspective that's pretty universally condemned even by people that also loathe Trump, the lack of steps he's taken, that personally wear masks, and think people that don't wear masks are doing a terrible thing (i.e. people that agree with her policy perspectives very closely)? I do.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Paper Chaser on November 15, 2020, 03:23:16 PM
I always find it fascinating how so many non-Americans that post here get so invested in American politics. Why are you so invested in the policies and domestic ongoings of a nation where you don't live? Why the vitriol? There have to be numerous better ways to invest your time and energy right?

Why do I care about what happens in the US?  Because what the US does affects my country (Canada). The newest metaphor floating around is that we live in the apartment above a meth lab.  I'm looking forward to that one dying.  But it doesn't change the fact that what the US does affects lots of people in other countries.  So yes, we pay attention.

Paying attention to something that might have impacts on you is prudent. Having a general understanding of what's happening in a geo political leader is pretty understandable to me as well. I even get the occasional 'WTF is going on down there?" post if you want more inside info.

But Becoming emotionally invested to the extent that OP and some others are, is not healthy. OP has done nothing but bad mouth the US for months on end, even going so far as to make off color posts about people's physical appearances. Does Trump's neck looking like "Melania's undercarriage" (as OP called it in another post) have some impact on their life or is OP just looking for any excuse they can find to bash the US and get a pat on the back from people with similar views? She clearly has a strong anti-American bend and I just don't understand the unhealthy obsession. Misinformed posts like this aren't helping anybody, anywhere. They're not changing anybody's mind, and they're not even thought provoking. OP doesn't even have a full grasp of the object of their ire, they just want to be angry about it.

No matter where you live, if following US politics is bringing a bunch of negative energy into your life to the point that you're getting hostile on a FIRE forum, maybe it's time to unplug a bit and simply focus on making your corner of the world better? Heck, that's what a bunch of Americans have been doing for a long time now.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 15, 2020, 03:36:22 PM
I don’t think millions are going to die, but given the demographics of who does die, I surely do not believe that the right wing is highly motivated to prevent that.

Rural residents have more comorbidities than urban residents and older people die more too. If the GOP had any sense they would be on this, its their voters who are dying the fastest.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: OtherJen on November 15, 2020, 03:53:51 PM
I don’t think millions are going to die, but given the demographics of who does die, I surely do not believe that the right wing is highly motivated to prevent that.

Rural residents have more comorbidities than urban residents and older people die more too. If the GOP had any sense they would be on this, its their voters who are dying the fastest.

They finally seem to be figuring out now that this wave is hitting them hardest, as indicated by the mask mandates in ND and recent remarks by the governor of WY. They didn’t give much of a shit last spring when heavily Democrat areas like NYC and Detroit were getting crushed.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Cranky on November 15, 2020, 03:56:54 PM
I think that many on the right see it as POC are dying. But one way or another, I live in a part of the Midwest that has flipped from blue to red in the last 4 years, and I do not see much concern about Covid once it was clear that bodies weren’t piling up in the streets. So much for All Lives Matter.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: OtherJen on November 15, 2020, 04:42:01 PM
I don’t think millions are going to die, but given the demographics of who does die, I surely do not believe that the right wing is highly motivated to prevent that.

Rural residents have more comorbidities than urban residents and older people die more too. If the GOP had any sense they would be on this, its their voters who are dying the fastest.

They finally seem to be figuring out now that this wave is hitting them hardest, as indicated by the mask mandates in ND and recent remarks by the governor of WY. They didn’t give much of a shit last spring when heavily Democrat areas like NYC and Detroit were getting crushed.

I'm speaking solely for my own state. The regions that actively fought against any COVID restrictions last spring, when my county had mobile morgues and a FEMA field hospital, are hitting 100% ICU occupancy. Suddenly, they give a shit. Their lives matter.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Wolfpack Mustachian on November 15, 2020, 05:09:52 PM
Putting it one more way and then leaving it alone, for anyone in any context to say:

"With a bit of luck, a few million deaths will raise the national IQ enough to actually start moving in a more positive direction."

would have been met with extreme condemnation and no outside defense of it being worded poorly or whatever. Could you imagine if someone had said that about suicide numbers, drug overdose deaths, etc.? Deaths are tragedies, and if your anger is flaring so hot that you can say something so flippant about millions of deaths, then dang....
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Adventine on November 15, 2020, 06:41:06 PM
@Wolfpack Mustachian that is exactly the OP's statement that bothered me the most.

It's so hostile and condescending. It's ugly to read.

Edit: And it wasn't a one-off statement. Her succeeding posts grew angrier and angrier.

Hopefully OP does reflect on her behavior, considers the roots of her frustration, and how it has led her to post things like this.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: sailinlight on November 15, 2020, 07:02:39 PM
Why do people outside of the United States think that our "covid response" is so terrible? From what I can see from the data, we have about half the deaths per capita per day of the UK and a third of Italy. And all that in spite of the fact that many states/counties have very low covid rates and do not have any stay at home orders in place and life is basically normal. Besides wearing a mask when I go into some stores/restaurants and no more business travel, my family's life hasn't changed much at all since this stared.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Sid Hoffman on November 15, 2020, 09:05:03 PM
Rural residents have more comorbidities than urban residents and older people die more too. If the GOP had any sense they would be on this, its their voters who are dying the fastest.

Are you sure? I had a quick look over the top 10 highest death states listed here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

(https://i.imgur.com/VDqevz2.png)

I'm no mathematician but it's the most populous states which have the most COVID deaths, and the most populous states tend to lean Biden. The top 10 states above account for 61.5% of all US deaths too, so the snippit above is already most of the deaths. I could go through all of them at some point, but from what I can tell, the deaths are higher concentrated in Biden supporting, Democrat governor states. I understand what you think you are saying but think about it this way: Trump's support is from low population areas. COVID doesn't spread as quickly or readily in low population areas. That's why it ripped across Wuhan (high density) and so many European cities (high density) along with NYC (USA's highest density city) among the quickest.

COVID doesn't care about politics. It cares about density, and especially places that have high utilization of mass transit along with intergenerational homes where young, healthy and mobile people come into contact with the sick and old. Again: why it spread so quickly across Wuhan and many EU cities that match that profile. Since governors and mayors had full authority for how to manage lockdowns and mask mandates across the US, perhaps later this week I'll go through all 50 states and list deaths, deaths per capita, who they selected for president, and who their governor is. I think it's going to be the same story though. The deaths will be in high density places regardless of political affiliations.

Oh and as for the chance of martial law, it's absolute zero. Trump will still be president by Christmas and he's made it clear there will be no national lockdowns. I'd say a less than 0.1% chance of martial law under Biden as well. He's not some crazed arch liberal, he's a moderate left-leaning politician, and one that's been around for decades. Martial law is just asking for a massive upheaval the scale of which would make the Portland riots look like a children's T-ball game. So yeah, maybe 1 in 1000 chance of martial law lockdowns under Biden.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 15, 2020, 11:08:43 PM
Rural residents have more comorbidities than urban residents and older people die more too. If the GOP had any sense they would be on this, its their voters who are dying the fastest.

Are you sure? I had a quick look over the top 10 highest death states listed here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

(https://i.imgur.com/VDqevz2.png)

I'm no mathematician but it's the most populous states which have the most COVID deaths, and the most populous states tend to lean Biden.

Yes, which is why you should look at deaths per population. Deaths per 100K residents is actually:
1. New Jersey
2. New York
3. Massachusetts
4. Connecticut
5. Louisiana
6. Mississippi
7. Rhode Island
8. North Dakota
9. Washington DC
10. Illisnois
According to the latest NYT data (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states).

But, if you look at just the last week you get a much different view:
1. North Dakota
2. South Dakota
3. Montana
4. Wyoming
5. Wisconsin
6. New Mexico
7. Illinois
8. Iowa
9. Minnesota
10. Indiana

So it started in New York and Seattle, and took a little bit of time to really infiltrate the middle of the country. But this red/blue way of looking at it is dumb because we are only talking about the presidential electoral college. Surely the republicans care about not losing rural voters not just in swing states but also in races all up and down the ballot.

COVID doesn't care about politics. It cares about density...

I'm sure it cares about density, compliance, comorbidities, and access to care. Many rural areas have populations with more comorbidities and less access to care. I'm not saying density doesn't matter, but I am saying that it isn't the only thing that matters.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 15, 2020, 11:36:07 PM
Why do people outside of the United States think that our "covid response" is so terrible? From what I can see from the data, we have about half the deaths per capita per day of the UK and a third of Italy.

Because those aren't the only other countries on the planet? Ignoring microstates, the 10 worst countries for total deaths per population right now are:
1. Belgium
2. Peru
3. Spain
4. Argentina
5. Brazil
6. Chile
7. UK
8. Mexico
9. Bolivia
10. Equidor
Data from NYT (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html).

You think that the USA should think that it's doing alright because it is number 12? Or should we be comparing ourselves to Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, and Taiwan? Because the USA has an order of magnitude (or two) more deaths than those countries. People in New Zealand (the OP) aren't going to compare us to the bottom of the barrel. They are going to compare us to the best, as they should.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: deborah on November 16, 2020, 12:05:34 AM
Unfortunately, the US should be comparing their response with China. Not much else matters. China has a much larger population than the US, and is gradually gaining and overtaking the US as the most important nation in the world. It’s unfortunate that the US has become the 12th worst in deaths per head of population, while China has become the 12th best. This means that China will have more clout on the world stage and sooner than if the pandemic hadn’t happened.

Of course, the charts should be showing nations with better health care systems having better responses to the pandemic. In that light, the top 12 with more than 1m population and the fewest deaths per head of population makes interesting reading:

Eritrea
Mongolia
Cambodia
Timor-Leste
Laos
Burundi
Taiwan
Tanzania
Vietnam
Papua New Guinea
Thailand
China
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: the_fixer on November 16, 2020, 06:58:29 AM
Even if Biden's taskforce could start immediately, you're still relying on people actually doing it. I've got plenty of neighbors (red state) who think it's a hoax, no big deal, just the flu, etc. Back in March/April, people were worried and complied, but since then - nope. A lot of people will have to die before it has a widespread impact in my area.

It's not about leaving it up to people's own ideas anymore. I'm talking a full, martial law enforced lockdown. People confined to their homes and streets patrolled by the military. Before everyone gets all nuts about it, it would only have to be for 3 or 4 weeks.
Never going to happen, the Trump administration wants everything open and will not go into a shutdown much less a martial law lockdown.

When Biden takes office they will probably ramp up education, urge people to do the right thing and do what they can to get states to ramp up restrictions to a reasonable level but I doubt they could / would go with a national stay at home order.

Even in my own state of Colorado the governor said that he will not do another stay at home order he said the initial stay at home was so they could ramp up testing, PPE and ensure hospital capacity. Now they have that in place it is up to individual responsibility and even if things get worse he will not go back to a stay at home order.  Individuals have the information on how to protect themselves and need to be responsible for their own actions. Paraphrased from his press conference and CNN interview.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: sailinlight on November 16, 2020, 07:41:20 AM
Why do people outside of the United States think that our "covid response" is so terrible? From what I can see from the data, we have about half the deaths per capita per day of the UK and a third of Italy.

Because those aren't the only other countries on the planet? Ignoring microstates, the 10 worst countries for total deaths per population right now are:
1. Belgium
2. Peru
3. Spain
4. Argentina
5. Brazil
6. Chile
7. UK
8. Mexico
9. Bolivia
10. Equidor
Data from NYT (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html).

You think that the USA should think that it's doing alright because it is number 12? Or should we be comparing ourselves to Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, and Taiwan? Because the USA has an order of magnitude (or two) more deaths than those countries. People in New Zealand (the OP) aren't going to compare us to the bottom of the barrel. They are going to compare us to the best, as they should.
Yeah I don't think we should compare ourselves to small island nations, Europe and China seem like better comparisons. Europe as a whole, it seems we're doing better, we flattened the curve better than they seemed to do initially, and our second wave doesn't seem to be shaping to be nearly as sharp. As far as China, a) I don't believe any of their numbers and b) I'd rather die than be forced to live in such an authoritarian system.
I guess that's why Covid has become so political
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: habanero on November 16, 2020, 07:46:29 AM
European results vary pretty wildly. It's not as much what various countries did as everyone did some variation on lockdown but how early they started.

Then we will see what this second wave brings.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 16, 2020, 06:18:50 PM
Yeah I don't think we should compare ourselves to small island nations, Europe and China seem like better comparisons. Europe as a whole, it seems we're doing better, we flattened the curve better than they seemed to do initially, and our second wave doesn't seem to be shaping to be nearly as sharp. As far as China, a) I don't believe any of their numbers and b) I'd rather die than be forced to live in such an authoritarian system.

I agree that we can't compare all of the country to a small island nation, and that some countries may not be reporting accurate data either out of incompetence or malice. But Alaska is our South Korea and Hawaii is our Taiwan. Why are South Korea and Taiwan doing so much better than Alaska and Hawaii?

I guess that's why Covid has become so political

I think that it became political because of all of the lies that Trump told (https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/trumps-lies-about-coronavirus/608647/). So many in fact that patients are dying from it while denying its existence (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/south-dakota-emergency-room-nurse-says-some-patients-insist-covid-19-isnt-real-even-as-theyre-dying-from-it-2020-11-16).
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Travis on November 16, 2020, 06:37:48 PM

I agree that we can't compare all of the country to a small island nation, and that some countries may not be reporting accurate data either out of incompetence or malice. But Alaska is our South Korea and Hawaii is our Taiwan. Why are South Korea and Taiwan doing so much better than Alaska and Hawaii?


Masks, limited public gatherings, contact tracing, and mandatory quarantine for anyone flying into the country.  Infection rate 100-200 per day for a 50 million population.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Paper Chaser on November 16, 2020, 08:10:49 PM
Yeah I don't think we should compare ourselves to small island nations, Europe and China seem like better comparisons. Europe as a whole, it seems we're doing better, we flattened the curve better than they seemed to do initially, and our second wave doesn't seem to be shaping to be nearly as sharp. As far as China, a) I don't believe any of their numbers and b) I'd rather die than be forced to live in such an authoritarian system.

I agree that we can't compare all of the country to a small island nation, and that some countries may not be reporting accurate data either out of incompetence or malice. But Alaska is our South Korea and Hawaii is our Taiwan. Why are South Korea and Taiwan doing so much better than Alaska and Hawaii?

"Taiwanese authorities began screening passengers on direct flights from Wuhan, where the virus was first identified, on December 31, 2019 -- back when the virus was mostly the subject of rumors and limited reporting.
Taiwan confirmed its first reported case of the novel coronavirus on January 21 and then banned Wuhan residents from traveling to the island. All passengers arriving from mainland China, Hong Kong and Macao were required to undergo screening.
All this happened before Wuhan itself went into lockdown on January 23. By March, Taiwan banned all foreign nationals from entering the island, apart from diplomats, residents and those with special entry visas."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/29/asia/taiwan-covid-19-intl-hnk/index.html


As far as I can tell, Taiwan is still pretty much closed borders:
https://travelbans.org/asia/taiwan/

Anybody that is allowed to enter must submit to a 14 day quarantine that's monitored by their government and there are financial penalties.

Sounds like Hawaii actually tried some of the same measures, but their economy is much more tourism dependent than Taiwan's:
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/20/925795410/facing-economic-devastation-hawaii-attempts-to-revive-tourism
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 16, 2020, 08:46:38 PM
A friend's husband recently joined her in New Zealand.  Mandatory 14 day quarantine, organized by the plane load.  All the passengers from one flight are taken by shuttle to a hotel and quarantined together (separate rooms, but not scattered over more than one hotel).  Canada is much more trusting about the quarantine and we've had people violate it.  Definitely easier to enforce when people are arriving at easily controlled entry points and the government makes quarantine unavoidable.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on November 20, 2020, 07:35:45 AM
This is one of the sillier topics I’ve seen here, even by “off topic” standards. Martial law in the US over COVID? In what crazy, parallel universe is that going to happen?

A little perspective here. Back in the 20th century the Spanish flu epidemic killed about 650k people in the US at a time when the US population was roughly 107 million people. And up until recently that epidemic was looked upon as a historical footnote. No martial law, no dramatic civil unrest, just a very sad part of our history.

So far COVID has killed about 250k people in the US where the population is over 3 times the size it was in 1918. That’s an awful death toll and I hate it. But it’s still a very small portion of our population. To suggest that we’re going to have some dramatic reaction like martial law or or a civil war over that is, to put it kindly, ludicrous.

There are some very good reasons why widespread martial law has not and likely will not be tried in the US. First, it wouldn’t work. Second, it would be suicidal for those trying. And third, those who would be inclined to try it aren’t complete morons and realize that it wouldn’t work and would be suicidal.

Much comment has been made up thread with regards to firearms ownership in the US. And it’s true: there are likely more privately owned firearms in my metro area than there are in all of New Zealand. Of course we don’t know for sure because there is no gun registration. And there probably never will be because few would comply with it anyway. Which gets to the nut of the matter as to why draconian measures like widespread martial law won’t happen:

A deep and wide culture of disobedience.

The US is one of very few countries on earth and perhaps the only one where disobedience is widely celebrated and enshrined in the culture. Edicts, even those that are logical and unquestionably for the greater good are viewed with suspicion at best. COVID is a great example. State governments across the US have issued mask advisories to keep you from dying and inadvertently killing other people..  It’s really a fairly minor inconvenience. Are people complying? It depends on the area, but nowhere I’m aware of is it universally complied with. If a safe and highly effective vaccine to prevent COVID were introduced tomorrow, it’s an easy bet that 20% plus of the population won’t get it.

If you’re looking to move the entire population of the US in any one direction, you can pretty much give it up except in the most dire of circumstances. And probably not even then. Widespread martial law then over COVID then? Not a chance.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on November 20, 2020, 10:12:28 AM
@Wolfpack Mustachian that is exactly the OP's statement that bothered me the most.

It's so hostile and condescending. It's ugly to read.

Edit: And it wasn't a one-off statement. Her succeeding posts grew angrier and angrier.

Hopefully OP does reflect on her behavior, considers the roots of her frustration, and how it has led her to post things like this.

The OP has a history of hostile posts, particularly towards the US and Americans. That’s fine: if that’s how she wants to be seen then that’s her choice. For every non -American who makes it a point to Hate America First, there seem to be five others who are trying to figure out a way to move here.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Cranky on November 20, 2020, 04:46:08 PM
So, I still can’t imagine how terribly be things would be to invoke matial martial - bodies piling up in the streets. But as we hit record case numbers, and hospitalization numbers, and deaths here in Ohio, it’s interesting to see how natural consequences kick in.

The high school in my district has gone back to all online, because they don’t have enough people available to keep school open. (And I said this summer - hey, if you want in person school, you need the go sign up to sub because that’s where this is gonna break down.) And the school will probably close after Thanksgiving...

I know of at least 3 restaurants that have closed because they’ve got staff in quarantine.

Churches are dropping in person services.

The construction crew next door were wearing masks for the first time.

None of this is legally mandated. The numbers have just hit a threshold where people are actually scared for the first time since April.

Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: maizefolk on November 20, 2020, 07:15:33 PM
I walked to a former student of mine and his wife over in the Twin Cities. They mentioned how in the first waves they heard about it, but didn't know anyone who had gotten sick. Now they do. Locally all we hear about is how the hospitals are full up, won't book people for any sort of treatment which involves an overnight stay because they're out of beds. I'm in the same boat, first person I personally know well, a former student who lives here in town, has gotten it. Thankfully he appears to be recovering. Describes losing his sense of taste as one of the oddest and most unsettling things.

In my county alone we're adding 400-600 new cases per 100,000 people each week (10x New Zealand's total since the whole thing start last spring) right now. And our testing capacity seems to be maxed out, we've been testing about the same number of people each week since July, the only difference between then and now is that a full 1/3 of the people tested are coming back positive. Local schools announced an "extended thanksgiving break" on a few days notice. Right now they say they'll resume classes in person in December but who knows.

A friend at work tells me a full 1/3 of the students in her largest class are either infected or quarantining after exposure to someone with a positive test result.

A woman who worked in my lab is worried her daughter caught covid at daycare. It's been forty-eight hours of fever and they won't test until she hits 72 hours. But for some reason children under two can only get tested in person at the doctors office, so does she go in for the test, knowing that it is just a regular childhood ailment she'll be exposing herself and her daughter to people who liked ARE infected?

Also when I got my latest batch of groceries I found out that they're back to limiting toilet paper to one per customer, which is probably a reasonably good indicator that people generally are scared again, it's not just me.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Cranky on November 21, 2020, 08:32:37 AM
And driving home from our walk this morning, I see that there are quite a few restaurants with signs that say "Temporarily Closed."
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 24, 2020, 02:13:08 PM
But, if you look at just the last week you get a much different view:
1. North Dakota
2. South Dakota
3. Montana
4. Wyoming
5. Wisconsin
6. New Mexico
7. Illinois
8. Iowa
9. Minnesota
10. Indiana

This now stands at:

Also, 1 In Every 1,000 North Dakota Residents Has Been Killed By Covid (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2020/11/18/1-in-every-1000-north-dakota-residents-has-been-killed-by-covid/) which had the highest Covid-19 mortality rate in the world last week.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: WhiteTrashCash on November 24, 2020, 02:18:16 PM
They've already declared martial law. THANKSGIVING IS ILLEGAL!!!!!!111oneone At least, that's what Trumpers are saying right now.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: bacchi on November 24, 2020, 02:26:49 PM
They've already declared martial law. THANKSGIVING IS ILLEGAL!!!!!!111oneone At least, that's what Trumpers are saying right now.

I've read that Democrats have always wanted to get rid of Thanksgiving.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 24, 2020, 03:06:48 PM
Thanksgiving is so illegal that your airports are full.  What are they smoking?   /s

I have come to the conclusion that the US is #1 in not learning from others.  We did the Thanksgiving/Halloween experiment and we are paying the price.  And our Thanksgiving isn't nearly as huge family get-together focused as yours.  At least we have time to get the numbers down a bit before all the various winter solstice celebrations - you will just be adding a newer high to a new high.  Sort of like a tsunami at high tide.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: GuitarStv on November 24, 2020, 03:07:21 PM
Thanksgiving is so illegal that your airports are full.

Not as full as the hospitals!
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 24, 2020, 03:14:52 PM
Thanksgiving is so illegal that your airports are full.

Not as full as the hospitals!

Give them time, they are not quite full yet.  When the stadiums and arenas and community centers fill up, they might notice.

Just anecdotally, our numbers are low relative to the US, but I am now hearing about friends and relatives of friends and acquaintances having Covid/dying of Covid.  My extended family is mostly isolating like mad, except for a couple of the younger ones that have to go to work and have their toddler in daycare.   
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: gooki on November 24, 2020, 03:22:40 PM
Why do people outside of the United States think that our "covid response" is so terrible? From what I can see from the data, we have about half the deaths per capita per day of the UK and a third of Italy. And all that in spite of the fact that many states/counties have very low covid rates and do not have any stay at home orders in place and life is basically normal.

Because it is terrible. Comparing terrible results with other countries with terrible results doesn’t make your results better. Try comparing it with countries who’s leadership took appropriate and swift action.

The USA has 131x more COVID deaths per million than my country does. We have never had a mandatory mask mandate (except on public transport), I’ve never even worn a mask this whole time, the total amount of weeks I’ve been in lock down is 8.

FWIW other than the 8 weeks of lockdown my life is normal. We can sit at restaurants inside, I’ve been to a concert, we have private gatherings, shake hands, hug each other.

So why are we doing 131 x better? Our leadership acted fast with a coordinated effort across many sectors. The tragedy is the USA could have had similar results to New Zealand, but a failure of leadership prevented that.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Sibley on November 24, 2020, 03:32:29 PM
Thanksgiving is so illegal that your airports are full.  What are they smoking?   /s

I have come to the conclusion that the US is #1 in not learning from others.  We did the Thanksgiving/Halloween experiment and we are paying the price.  And our Thanksgiving isn't nearly as huge family get-together focused as yours.  At least we have time to get the numbers down a bit before all the various winter solstice celebrations - you will just be adding a newer high to a new high.  Sort of like a tsunami at high tide.

Why should we learn from anyone else, we're clearly the best, you should be copying us! /s
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Paul der Krake on November 24, 2020, 03:45:50 PM
Why do people outside of the United States think that our "covid response" is so terrible? From what I can see from the data, we have about half the deaths per capita per day of the UK and a third of Italy. And all that in spite of the fact that many states/counties have very low covid rates and do not have any stay at home orders in place and life is basically normal.

Because it is terrible. Comparing terrible results with other countries with terrible results doesn’t make your results better. Try comparing it with countries who’s leadership took appropriate and swift action.

The USA has 131x more COVID deaths per million than my country does. We have never had a mandatory mask mandate (except on public transport), I’ve never even worn a mask this whole time, the total amount of weeks I’ve been in lock down is 8.

FWIW other than the 8 weeks of lockdown my life is normal. We can sit at restaurants inside, I’ve been to a concert, we have private gatherings, shake hands, hug each other.

So why are we doing 131 x better? Our leadership acted fast with a coordinated effort across many sectors. The tragedy is the USA could have had similar results to New Zealand, but a failure of leadership prevented that.
I don't think it's as simple as a question of leadership quality, and more a question of culture and unique environments. It's quite obvious in the US that not all groups (on whatever lines you want to define them) are doing equally badly. Some European countries have had drastic lockdowns and still ended up doing horribly overall too. New Zealand has a bunch of attributes that would probably have allowed you guys to handle it well even with subpar leadership.

Even though good leadership is needed, the government response is more a reflection of a society as a whole than something that can evaluated on its own.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Cranky on November 24, 2020, 03:53:32 PM
NZ is a lightly populated island, so the circumstances are kinda different.

I continue to be interested in how things are closing down locally because someone actually has Covid. We went to the phone store this morning and had to find a different one.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: WhiteTrashCash on November 25, 2020, 05:36:44 AM
Thanksgiving is so illegal that your airports are full.  What are they smoking?   /s

I have come to the conclusion that the US is #1 in not learning from others.  We did the Thanksgiving/Halloween experiment and we are paying the price.  And our Thanksgiving isn't nearly as huge family get-together focused as yours.  At least we have time to get the numbers down a bit before all the various winter solstice celebrations - you will just be adding a newer high to a new high.  Sort of like a tsunami at high tide.

We're #1! We're #1! USA USA USA USA USA!
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Michael in ABQ on November 25, 2020, 06:19:01 AM
Why do people outside of the United States think that our "covid response" is so terrible? From what I can see from the data, we have about half the deaths per capita per day of the UK and a third of Italy. And all that in spite of the fact that many states/counties have very low covid rates and do not have any stay at home orders in place and life is basically normal.

Because it is terrible. Comparing terrible results with other countries with terrible results doesn’t make your results better. Try comparing it with countries who’s leadership took appropriate and swift action.

The USA has 131x more COVID deaths per million than my country does. We have never had a mandatory mask mandate (except on public transport), I’ve never even worn a mask this whole time, the total amount of weeks I’ve been in lock down is 8.

FWIW other than the 8 weeks of lockdown my life is normal. We can sit at restaurants inside, I’ve been to a concert, we have private gatherings, shake hands, hug each other.

So why are we doing 131 x better? Our leadership acted fast with a coordinated effort across many sectors. The tragedy is the USA could have had similar results to New Zealand, but a failure of leadership prevented that.

I have to call BS on this. No, a country of 330 million people with hundreds of international entry points cannot be reasonably compared to an isolated island nation of five million with a handful of international entry points.

Wuhan locked down January 23rd at which point the first identified patient in the US had already arrived from Wuhan on January 15th. New Zealand first started restricting travel from China on February 3rd - around the same time the US and many other countries did the same. But because of the high level of travel between the US and China there were already multiple infected people in the US spread across multiple states.

We could have done better, but comparing one of the largest countries on earth to an isolated island nation like New Zealand or Iceland is disingenuous at best.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: bacchi on November 25, 2020, 08:20:00 AM
Why do people outside of the United States think that our "covid response" is so terrible? From what I can see from the data, we have about half the deaths per capita per day of the UK and a third of Italy. And all that in spite of the fact that many states/counties have very low covid rates and do not have any stay at home orders in place and life is basically normal.

Because it is terrible. Comparing terrible results with other countries with terrible results doesn’t make your results better. Try comparing it with countries who’s leadership took appropriate and swift action.

The USA has 131x more COVID deaths per million than my country does. We have never had a mandatory mask mandate (except on public transport), I’ve never even worn a mask this whole time, the total amount of weeks I’ve been in lock down is 8.

FWIW other than the 8 weeks of lockdown my life is normal. We can sit at restaurants inside, I’ve been to a concert, we have private gatherings, shake hands, hug each other.

So why are we doing 131 x better? Our leadership acted fast with a coordinated effort across many sectors. The tragedy is the USA could have had similar results to New Zealand, but a failure of leadership prevented that.

I have to call BS on this. No, a country of 330 million people with hundreds of international entry points cannot be reasonably compared to an isolated island nation of five million with a handful of international entry points.

Wuhan locked down January 23rd at which point the first identified patient in the US had already arrived from Wuhan on January 15th. New Zealand first started restricting travel from China on February 3rd - around the same time the US and many other countries did the same. But because of the high level of travel between the US and China there were already multiple infected people in the US spread across multiple states.

We could have done better, but comparing one of the largest countries on earth to an isolated island nation like New Zealand or Iceland is disingenuous at best.

NZ has many advantages, such as a leader who is trusted and believes in the virus and people who believe in their government, but being an island with controllable access points is one of the largest.

Of course, England is also an island and it's doing shitty. A lot depends on how the populace is reacting and, in this, Americans and Brits are acting like children.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Wolfpack Mustachian on November 25, 2020, 09:23:41 AM
Why do people outside of the United States think that our "covid response" is so terrible? From what I can see from the data, we have about half the deaths per capita per day of the UK and a third of Italy. And all that in spite of the fact that many states/counties have very low covid rates and do not have any stay at home orders in place and life is basically normal.

Because it is terrible. Comparing terrible results with other countries with terrible results doesn’t make your results better. Try comparing it with countries who’s leadership took appropriate and swift action.

The USA has 131x more COVID deaths per million than my country does. We have never had a mandatory mask mandate (except on public transport), I’ve never even worn a mask this whole time, the total amount of weeks I’ve been in lock down is 8.

FWIW other than the 8 weeks of lockdown my life is normal. We can sit at restaurants inside, I’ve been to a concert, we have private gatherings, shake hands, hug each other.

So why are we doing 131 x better? Our leadership acted fast with a coordinated effort across many sectors. The tragedy is the USA could have had similar results to New Zealand, but a failure of leadership prevented that.

I have to call BS on this. No, a country of 330 million people with hundreds of international entry points cannot be reasonably compared to an isolated island nation of five million with a handful of international entry points.

Wuhan locked down January 23rd at which point the first identified patient in the US had already arrived from Wuhan on January 15th. New Zealand first started restricting travel from China on February 3rd - around the same time the US and many other countries did the same. But because of the high level of travel between the US and China there were already multiple infected people in the US spread across multiple states.

We could have done better, but comparing one of the largest countries on earth to an isolated island nation like New Zealand or Iceland is disingenuous at best.

NZ has many advantages, such as a leader who is trusted and believes in the virus and people who believe in their government, but being an island with controllable access points is one of the largest.

Of course, England is also an island and it's doing shitty. A lot depends on how the populace is reacting and, in this, Americans and Brits are acting like children.

I dunno. I saw a meme on Facebook comparing conforming by wearing a mask to conforming in Nazi Germany giving the Nazi salute. It was pretty convincing.... /s
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 25, 2020, 10:31:08 AM
Of course, England is also an island and it's doing shitty. A lot depends on how the populace is reacting and, in this, Americans and Brits are acting like children.

Did NZ really lock down the borders? Because the EU and NAFTA kept the borders open for food and supplies. You can still cross to/from Mexico/USA/Canada without quarantine as long as you are driving a truck full of goods.

Having lived in the US and UK, I'm not sure that the food supply chains are setup for a real border closure. Maybe NZ is.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: GuitarStv on November 25, 2020, 11:27:18 AM
Of course, England is also an island and it's doing shitty. A lot depends on how the populace is reacting and, in this, Americans and Brits are acting like children.

Did NZ really lock down the borders? Because the EU and NAFTA kept the borders open for food and supplies. You can still cross to/from Mexico/USA/Canada without quarantine as long as you are driving a truck full of goods.

Having lived in the US and UK, I'm not sure that the food supply chains are setup for a real border closure. Maybe NZ is.

No country really locked down borders.  At least to my knowledge they all kept borders open for trade/mail/etc.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 25, 2020, 12:39:52 PM
No country really locked down borders.  At least to my knowledge they all kept borders open for trade/mail/etc.

Umm, [a]n estimated 300,000 cargo ship workers are currently trapped at sea by the coronavirus pandemic, and many are speaking out about the grinding monotony and possible accidents. - https://www.businessinsider.com/cargo-ship-workers-trapped-sea-predict-anarchy-not-sent-home-2020-7 (https://www.businessinsider.com/cargo-ship-workers-trapped-sea-predict-anarchy-not-sent-home-2020-7)

Maybe they let the goods in - that's a lot different than NAFTA and the EU where, to the best of my knowledge, they let the drivers in.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: GuitarStv on November 25, 2020, 01:10:11 PM
No country really locked down borders.  At least to my knowledge they all kept borders open for trade/mail/etc.

Umm, [a]n estimated 300,000 cargo ship workers are currently trapped at sea by the coronavirus pandemic, and many are speaking out about the grinding monotony and possible accidents. - https://www.businessinsider.com/cargo-ship-workers-trapped-sea-predict-anarchy-not-sent-home-2020-7 (https://www.businessinsider.com/cargo-ship-workers-trapped-sea-predict-anarchy-not-sent-home-2020-7)

Maybe they let the goods in - that's a lot different than NAFTA and the EU where, to the best of my knowledge, they let the drivers in.

I've seen no disruption whatsoever to supply chains where shipping is required  . . .  but I did not know that that was going on with shipping crews.  That's pretty crazy.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Travis on November 25, 2020, 05:40:46 PM
No country really locked down borders.  At least to my knowledge they all kept borders open for trade/mail/etc.

Umm, [a]n estimated 300,000 cargo ship workers are currently trapped at sea by the coronavirus pandemic, and many are speaking out about the grinding monotony and possible accidents. - https://www.businessinsider.com/cargo-ship-workers-trapped-sea-predict-anarchy-not-sent-home-2020-7 (https://www.businessinsider.com/cargo-ship-workers-trapped-sea-predict-anarchy-not-sent-home-2020-7)

Maybe they let the goods in - that's a lot different than NAFTA and the EU where, to the best of my knowledge, they let the drivers in.

I've seen no disruption whatsoever to supply chains where shipping is required  . . .  but I did not know that that was going on with shipping crews.  That's pretty crazy.

South Korea "locked down" international arrivals only to the point of requiring a 2 week quarantine at your own expense in a government-designated location (roughly $100/day) or in our case at a military facility.  It has significantly reduced travel because people don't want to foot the bill or add 2 weeks to whatever their trip was for.  This process catches and filters about 20 infected people per day.  I haven't looked into the shipping side of things, but there has been a noticeable delay in the supply chain for stocking our commissary. Since we're stocked with mostly US-based goods there's always a chance of inventory problems, but we've had a couple iterations of bare shelves for some items. Mail has also doubled in wait times.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: gooki on November 25, 2020, 06:20:06 PM
[New Zealand has a bunch of attributes that would probably have allowed you guys to handle it well even with subpar leadership.

Sub par leadership in NZ would have resulted in UK levels of COVID deaths. there’s nothing magical about the people that live in New Zealand. We’re not an island of elves, dwarf, wizards and hobbits.

Did NZ really lock down the borders? Because the EU and NAFTA kept the borders open for food and supplies.

Our customs boarders remained open. We shut our borders to non residents.

I have to call BS on this. No, a country of 330 million people with hundreds of international entry points cannot be reasonably compared to an isolated island nation of five million with a handful of international entry points.

Wuhan locked down January 23rd at which point the first identified patient in the US had already arrived from Wuhan on January 15th. New Zealand first started restricting travel from China on February 3rd - around the same time the US and many other countries did the same. But because of the high level of travel between the US and China there were already multiple infected people in the US spread across multiple states.

We could have done better, but comparing one of the largest countries on earth to an isolated island nation like New Zealand or Iceland is disingenuous at best.

Why not. Both countries had community transmission of COVID, from that point on were completely comparable, unless you’re going to try and argue that the continued volume of COVID cases in the USA is entirely due to people crossing the Canada and Mexico border.

FWIW New Zealand also experiences high levels of travel between ourselves and China. Chinese visitors to NZ per year exceeds 10% of our population. That’s over 450,000 visitors from that region alone. In total we get 3.8 million international visitors per year. Just because we are geographically isolated does not mean we are isolated from the people of the world.

NZ has many advantages, such as a leader who is trusted and believes in the virus and people who believe in their government, but being an island with controllable access points is one of the largest.

Of course, England is also an island and it's doing shitty. A lot depends on how the populace is reacting and, in this, Americans and Brits are acting like children.

Correct, we have a leader who is largely trusted because they exhibit the required traits of a good leader. And that’s my point. Cooridinated leadership is what is required to deal with a global pandemic.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Paul der Krake on November 25, 2020, 06:30:16 PM
[New Zealand has a bunch of attributes that would probably have allowed you guys to handle it well even with subpar leadership.

Sub par leadership in NZ would have resulted in UK levels of COVID deaths. there’s nothing magical about the people that live in New Zealand. We’re not an island of elves, dwarf, wizards and hobbits.
You don't think having roughly one tenth of the population density of the UK, and having essentially no populous neighbors one 2 hour train ride away could have something to do with it?

I don't think you realize quite how porous the borders in Europe are.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: gooki on November 25, 2020, 06:37:00 PM
No I don’t, because we’re comparing deaths per million people, not total number of deaths.

UKs leaders could easily have closed their borders to non essential people. Seriously it’s not that hard, and it doesn’t have to be perfect. Even our borders were breached, but we dealt with it. FWIW, I’m well traveled enough to know how easy it is to cross from one EU member country to another.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 25, 2020, 06:47:22 PM
Did NZ really lock down the borders? Because the EU and NAFTA kept the borders open for food and supplies.
Our customs boarders remained open. We shut our borders to non residents.

Did you even read the thread? You weren't letting truck drivers from China and Malaysia in, because you don't have roads to China and Malaysia.

Because Canada and the UK needed to let drivers from the US and France in in order to get food. Also, China handled the pandemic well so even if you had been letting a ton of Chinese in it probably wouldn't have been a problem.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: bacchi on November 25, 2020, 06:56:45 PM
[New Zealand has a bunch of attributes that would probably have allowed you guys to handle it well even with subpar leadership.

Sub par leadership in NZ would have resulted in UK levels of COVID deaths. there’s nothing magical about the people that live in New Zealand. We’re not an island of elves, dwarf, wizards and hobbits.

Are you sure? What if 500,000 Kiwis thought covid19 was a hoax created by communists/liberals/Jews/elderly billionaires? Or that it was real but the cities of Christchurch and Manukau decided that keeping bars and gyms and restaurants completely open was a better idea than shutting down? Or if Wellington shut down but armed protestors showed up at city hall to protest the decision?
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Paper Chaser on November 25, 2020, 07:38:53 PM

I have to call BS on this. No, a country of 330 million people with hundreds of international entry points cannot be reasonably compared to an isolated island nation of five million with a handful of international entry points.

Wuhan locked down January 23rd at which point the first identified patient in the US had already arrived from Wuhan on January 15th. New Zealand first started restricting travel from China on February 3rd - around the same time the US and many other countries did the same. But because of the high level of travel between the US and China there were already multiple infected people in the US spread across multiple states.

We could have done better, but comparing one of the largest countries on earth to an isolated island nation like New Zealand or Iceland is disingenuous at best.

Why not. Both countries had community transmission of COVID, from that point on were completely comparable, unless you’re going to try and argue that the continued volume of COVID cases in the USA is entirely due to people crossing the Canada and Mexico border.

FWIW New Zealand also experiences high levels of travel between ourselves and China. Chinese visitors to NZ per year exceeds 10% of our population. That’s over 450,000 visitors from that region alone. In total we get 3.8 million international visitors per year. Just because we are geographically isolated does not mean we are isolated from the people of the world.

Is domestic air travel common in NZ, or is it mostly international? Domestic travel is very common in the US in addition to the international travel due to the size of the country. LAX alone had over 88 million passengers in 2019. That's an average of almost 250k passengers per day and it's not even the busiest airport in the US. Plus, with the way that air travel works in the US, many passengers make stops in several different cities before reaching their destination. So that traveler from China may have originally come into LAX, and had to switch planes in 30 minutes where they flew to Denver, then Atlanta, then Austin within a few hours. Co mingling with others at each location of course. The same thing is happening simultaneously in NYCs various international airports and Chicago, and over 100 other international airports with European visitors and Canadian visitors, and South American visitors, etc. Tracing that many vectors through that many nodes with any accuracy or speed is pretty impossible.

The only way to have really shut it out would've been stopping all international travel at once before cases were in the triple digits, but that strands a whole lot of your citizens in other countries, and it locks out all of the people that live on one side of your border while working on the other. It's a whole lot easier to separate and screen a few flights per day of international travelers at 3 airports from 15 other nations than it is to do the same thing for hundreds of daily flights from 50 other nations at over 100 international airports spread out over thousands of miles, all while simultaneously closing down many thousands of miles of land borders. It's not even close to the same logistical problem.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 25, 2020, 08:29:55 PM

I have to call BS on this. No, a country of 330 million people with hundreds of international entry points cannot be reasonably compared to an isolated island nation of five million with a handful of international entry points.

Wuhan locked down January 23rd at which point the first identified patient in the US had already arrived from Wuhan on January 15th. New Zealand first started restricting travel from China on February 3rd - around the same time the US and many other countries did the same. But because of the high level of travel between the US and China there were already multiple infected people in the US spread across multiple states.

We could have done better, but comparing one of the largest countries on earth to an isolated island nation like New Zealand or Iceland is disingenuous at best.

Why not. Both countries had community transmission of COVID, from that point on were completely comparable, unless you’re going to try and argue that the continued volume of COVID cases in the USA is entirely due to people crossing the Canada and Mexico border.

FWIW New Zealand also experiences high levels of travel between ourselves and China. Chinese visitors to NZ per year exceeds 10% of our population. That’s over 450,000 visitors from that region alone. In total we get 3.8 million international visitors per year. Just because we are geographically isolated does not mean we are isolated from the people of the world.

Is domestic air travel common in NZ, or is it mostly international? Domestic travel is very common in the US in addition to the international travel due to the size of the country. LAX alone had over 88 million passengers in 2019. That's an average of almost 250k passengers per day and it's not even the busiest airport in the US. Plus, with the way that air travel works in the US, many passengers make stops in several different cities before reaching their destination. So that traveler from China may have originally come into LAX, and had to switch planes in 30 minutes where they flew to Denver, then Atlanta, then Austin within a few hours. Co mingling with others at each location of course. The same thing is happening simultaneously in NYCs various international airports and Chicago, and over 100 other international airports with European visitors and Canadian visitors, and South American visitors, etc. Tracing that many vectors through that many nodes with any accuracy or speed is pretty impossible.

The only way to have really shut it out would've been stopping all international travel at once before cases were in the triple digits, but that strands a whole lot of your citizens in other countries, and it locks out all of the people that live on one side of your border while working on the other. It's a whole lot easier to separate and screen a few flights per day of international travelers at 3 airports from 15 other nations than it is to do the same thing for hundreds of daily flights from 50 other nations at over 100 international airports spread out over thousands of miles, all while simultaneously closing down many thousands of miles of land borders. It's not even close to the same logistical problem.

I was there last year and it seemed to me that people fly a lot.  It's easier to travel by air than ferry to get from one island to the other.  Plus the International side of Auckland airport was packed with passengers from Asia.  Air New Zealand is now my favourite airline.  Airports I saw: Auckland, international and domestic, Wellington, Christchurch, Invercargill. 
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: ender on November 25, 2020, 09:18:05 PM
It's not even close to the same logistical problem.

+100

The busiest airport in NZ would rank #29 on the list of airports in the USA by busiest (using not 2020 numbers, obviously). There are numerous American airports which have more international passengers alone than the busiest NZ airport has total passengers.

My state (which isn't even that big) has more people in it than NZ.

The USA has an overall population density that is 2x that of NZ. Its population is about 65x that of NZ.

The USA imports significantly more goods than NZ (about 60x more). The USA only exports about 45x as much as NZ.


And even ignoring the logistical differences, the United States is a government which has heavily distributed government at the state/local level. The federal government here can't, for example, just shut down the entire country. The president can't even issue a national mask mandate based on their powers let alone do the sorts of national lockdown that was done in NZ.

For better or worse this heavily restricts a coordinated federal response to covid.

Trump most certainly did things poorly in how he handled covid (or, rather, didn't) but most of the things people seem to have wanted him to do in 2020 were simply not viable legal options. Could he have provided leadership and centralized plans and worked with governors and state governments to try to have states all follow them? Sure.




Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Abe on November 25, 2020, 09:20:33 PM
New Zealand density per sq km map: http://infoshare.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/browse-categories/population/estimates-projections/SubnationalPopulationEstimates_AtJun17_MR3/map-snpe-30jun17-pop-density.png?h=716&w=500
 note the medium blue (100-200 per sq km)

US density per sq km map: https://www.mapbusinessonline.com/Content/images/map_gallery/usa-population-density.png
 note the darkest red (100-30,000 per sq km)

US and NZ land area for comparison:https://external-preview.redd.it/yalhG3bkQUJftNa8B0L7SbzFBvMqpQ1g4in1gsP02Bg.jpg?auto=webp&s=3b5f1f0a92fd70093f937fbc751faf6c2a45e29e

One can see how density (which is directly related to rate of spread for respiratory infection) creates two different problems for the two countries.

I decided to be a huge dork and made this graphic from the above maps.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: gooki on November 26, 2020, 12:33:20 AM
Quote
Is domestic air travel common in NZ, or is it mostly international?

We have 4-5 x domestic air travellers as we do international. That’s insane right, 4 flights a year for every resident.

Quote
So that traveler from China may have originally come into LAX, and had to switch planes in 30 minutes where they flew to Denver, then Atlanta, then Austin within a few hours.

Switching planes isn’t uncommon in NZ either. Most international travellers arrive in Auckland and the take a domestic flight to Wellington, Christchurch, or Queenstown. If your travel is poorly planned you may end up doing two domestic switches. But admittedly not as bonkers as it can get in the USA.

Quote
Tracing that many vectors through that many nodes with any accuracy or speed is pretty impossible.... It's a whole lot easier to separate and screen a few flights per day of international travelers at 3 airports from 15 other nations than it is to do the same thing for hundreds of daily flights from 50 other nations at over 100 international airports spread out over thousands of miles, all while simultaneously closing down many thousands of miles of land borders. It's not even close to the same logistical problem.

Why? Yes you have more nodes, but you also have proportionally more resources. Again re-enforcing my option that the greatest failure is a lack of coordinated leadership.

Quote
Are you sure? What if 500,000 Kiwis thought covid19 was a hoax created by communists/liberals/Jews/elderly billionaires?

Proportionally you bet we had circa 8,000 kiwis believing it was a hoax. One church group was entirely responsible for our second wave because the dumb fucks didn’t believe it, refused to get tested, and kept having mass gatherings when advised not too.

Quote
Or that it was real but the cities of Christchurch and Manukau decided that keeping bars and gyms and restaurants completely open was a better idea than shutting down?

Again back to my main point. The greatest failure of this pandemic is a lack of coordinated leadership.

Quote
Or if Wellington shut down but armed protestors showed up at city hall to protest the decision?

And that’s would be a reflection of poor leadership. Good leaders know how to communicate. Different people need different levels of communication, and that’s what NZ did right. It’s not that we simply made the tough decisions, it’s how they executed on those decision to ensure the public were informed and get maximum public buy in.

Quote
Because Canada and the UK needed to let drivers from the US and France in in order to get food.

Seriously it’s this one vector that cannot be solved?

Quote
China handled the pandemic well so even if you had been letting a ton of Chinese in it probably wouldn't have been a problem.

UK and USA visitors are number 3 and 4 on the list of countries with the most visitors to New Zealand.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 26, 2020, 12:39:17 AM
Quote
Because Canada and the UK needed to let drivers from the US and France in in order to get food.

Seriously it’s this one vector that cannot be solved?

You tell me. Canada, the UK, and New Zealand are all commonwealth countries with reasonably competent parliamentary democratic governments. What's your theory on the difference? Seriously, as a commonwealth citizen I want to know.

Quote
China handled the pandemic well so even if you had been letting a ton of Chinese in it probably wouldn't have been a problem.

UK and USA visitors are number 3 and 4 on the list of countries with the most visitors to New Zealand.

I'm confused what the point of this sentence is, can I come visit NZ on my US or UK passports right now?
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 26, 2020, 01:05:19 AM
And this: Supreme Court Blocks Covid-19 Restrictions on Religious Services in New York (https://www.wsj.com/articles/supreme-court-blocks-covid-19-restrictions-on-church-attendance-in-new-york-11606369004).
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on November 26, 2020, 06:51:43 AM
We don't need your stinkin lockdowns! (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201126/eb6d0fa19ff0d60e4418b239a6fffe9a.jpg)

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 26, 2020, 07:05:12 AM
Maybe instead of comparing the US to NZ, which did have advantages that have not been mentioned here, compare the US to Canada. Both large countries with dense areas and low density areas, both with 3 levels of government where health care is a state/provincial responsibility so there are limits to what the feds can do.  Plus geographically close, so American cultural ideas easily spill over the border.  As in, QAnon, masks being an infringement on rights, ignore social gathering numbers for holidays (for us Thanksgiving and Halloween) and all the other dangerous nonsense.  Our numbers are much worse than NZ's, but much better than the US.  And per capita numbers are worst in Alberta, thanks to a right-wing oil loving social services slashing provincial governent.  Not to mention Ontario, with a Conservative government.

So many Ph. D theses will come out of all the analysis.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: GuitarStv on November 26, 2020, 07:35:36 AM
Maybe instead of comparing the US to NZ, which did have advantages that have not been mentioned here, compare the US to Canada. Both large countries with dense areas and low density areas, both with 3 levels of government where health care is a state/provincial responsibility so there are limits to what the feds can do.  Plus geographically close, so American cultural ideas easily spill over the border.  As in, QAnon, masks being an infringement on rights, ignore social gathering numbers for holidays (for us Thanksgiving and Halloween) and all the other dangerous nonsense.  Our numbers are much worse than NZ's, but much better than the US.  And per capita numbers are worst in Alberta, thanks to a right-wing oil loving social services slashing provincial governent.  Not to mention Ontario, with a Conservative government.

So many Ph. D theses will come out of all the analysis.

Numbers are worse in Alberta because the conservative leaders refuse to lock down anything of consequence.  Bars/restaurants remain open, despite hospitals being filled to overflowing with covid patients.  The leadership of Alberta has mentioned repeatedly that they believe the economic damage of a lockdown is not worth the benefit of lives saved.  Guess we'll see how that plays out for them.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: the_fixer on November 26, 2020, 08:44:20 AM
Maybe instead of comparing the US to NZ, which did have advantages that have not been mentioned here, compare the US to Canada. Both large countries with dense areas and low density areas, both with 3 levels of government where health care is a state/provincial responsibility so there are limits to what the feds can do.  Plus geographically close, so American cultural ideas easily spill over the border.  As in, QAnon, masks being an infringement on rights, ignore social gathering numbers for holidays (for us Thanksgiving and Halloween) and all the other dangerous nonsense.  Our numbers are much worse than NZ's, but much better than the US.  And per capita numbers are worst in Alberta, thanks to a right-wing oil loving social services slashing provincial governent.  Not to mention Ontario, with a Conservative government.

So many Ph. D theses will come out of all the analysis.
I would think Europe might be the best comparison to the us? Countries the size of our states that have easy / common travel between and each one with different rules.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: former player on November 26, 2020, 09:14:37 AM
I have a theory, may or may not be right, that when the pandemic started there was an expectation of CDC leadership, based on their effective leadership in previous pandemics, the latest being ebola.  The CDC allowed itself to be hamstrung for weeks on what it said by Trump (plus thoroughly effed up on testing) while everyone else, including the WHO, waited for them to take action, meaning that nothing much happened anywhere in the world until late February/March, by which time it was pretty much too late for countries with high levels of international travel.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 26, 2020, 10:09:22 AM
Maybe instead of comparing the US to NZ, which did have advantages that have not been mentioned here, compare the US to Canada. Both large countries with dense areas and low density areas, both with 3 levels of government where health care is a state/provincial responsibility so there are limits to what the feds can do.  Plus geographically close, so American cultural ideas easily spill over the border.  As in, QAnon, masks being an infringement on rights, ignore social gathering numbers for holidays (for us Thanksgiving and Halloween) and all the other dangerous nonsense.  Our numbers are much worse than NZ's, but much better than the US.  And per capita numbers are worst in Alberta, thanks to a right-wing oil loving social services slashing provincial governent.  Not to mention Ontario, with a Conservative government.

So many Ph. D theses will come out of all the analysis.
I would think Europe might be the best comparison to the us? Countries the size of our states that have easy / common travel between and each one with different rules.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

We have big provinces and little provinces plus 3 territories, and health is a provincial responsibility so 13 sets of rules, plus only 2 languages, the more common one being English.  Plus provincial Conservative parties that follow the US Republican example.

All the above is why I thought the comparison was useful. But sure, you can look at Europe, or Asia, or Africa, or South America, its all over.


Sorry, I'm on my tablet and can't fix the quoting, will later.  Done.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on November 26, 2020, 10:55:32 AM
And this: Supreme Court Blocks Covid-19 Restrictions on Religious Services in New York (https://www.wsj.com/articles/supreme-court-blocks-covid-19-restrictions-on-church-attendance-in-new-york-11606369004).

The high bench struck the balance in favor of the First Amendment's Free Exercise Clause.

Restrictive measures to counter  a pandemic epitomize legitimate exercise of the States' police power but no matter how direly  consequential or  deadly, a pandemic  is not sufficiently compelling to warrant quarantining constitutional guarantees.


"Even in a pandemic, the Constitution cannot be put away and forgotten....The restrictions at issue here, by effectively barring many from attending religious services, strike at the very heart of the First Amendment’s guarantee of religious liberty." This quote is from the Court's "unsigned, majority  opinion."


"It is time – past time – to make plain that, while the pandemic poses many grave challenges, there is no world in which the Constitution tolerates color-coded executive edicts that reopen liquor stores and bike shops but shutter churches, synagogues, and mosques."  Justice Gorsuch




"It is a significant matter to override determinations made by public health officials concerning what is necessary for public safety in the midst of a deadly pandemic." C.J. Roberts

"According to experts, the risk of transmission is higher when people are in close contact with one another for prolonged periods of time, particularly indoors or in other enclosed spaces...The nature of the epidemic, the spikes, the uncertainties, and the need for quick action, taken together, mean that the state has countervailing arguments based upon health, safety, and administrative considerations that must be balanced against the applicants’ First Amendment challenges." Justice Breyer
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: bacchi on November 26, 2020, 11:10:12 AM
Maybe instead of comparing the US to NZ, which did have advantages that have not been mentioned here, compare the US to Canada. Both large countries with dense areas and low density areas, both with 3 levels of government where health care is a state/provincial responsibility so there are limits to what the feds can do.  Plus geographically close, so American cultural ideas easily spill over the border.  As in, QAnon, masks being an infringement on rights, ignore social gathering numbers for holidays (for us Thanksgiving and Halloween) and all the other dangerous nonsense.  Our numbers are much worse than NZ's, but much better than the US.  And per capita numbers are worst in Alberta, thanks to a right-wing oil loving social services slashing provincial governent.  Not to mention Ontario, with a Conservative government.

So many Ph. D theses will come out of all the analysis.
I would think Europe might be the best comparison to the us? Countries the size of our states that have easy / common travel between and each one with different rules.

We have big provinces and little provinces plus 3 territories, and health is a provincial responsibility so 13 sets of rules, plus only 2 languages, the more common one being English.  Plus provincial Conservative parties that follow the US Republican example.

All the above is why I thought the comparison was useful. But sure, you can look at Europe, or Asia, or Africa, or South America, its all over.

It is useful.

The US has more states/provinces like Alberta and far more Qanon than anywhere else, proportionately. All of the midwest initially thought it was a Big City coastal problem.

Quote from: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/south-dakota-covid-kristi-noem-mask-mandate/
South Dakota has reported more COVID-19 deaths per capita over the last week than anywhere else in the country, and it has the highest per capita rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations.
[...]
Back in Sioux Falls [which now has a non-legal mask mandate], the mayor has taken heat for his response to questions about why so many people don't want to wear a mask. "This is cowboy country, man," TenHaken said. "And you try and tell someone to do something and they want to do the opposite."

It's also important to note that South Dakota citizens aren't calling for their governor to resign. "Leadership" is a nice thought but they have the government they want.

Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: GuitarStv on November 26, 2020, 11:41:41 AM
It's also important to note that South Dakota citizens aren't calling for their governor to resign. "Leadership" is a nice thought but they have the government they want deserve.

:P
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 26, 2020, 12:31:51 PM
And this: Supreme Court Blocks Covid-19 Restrictions on Religious Services in New York (https://www.wsj.com/articles/supreme-court-blocks-covid-19-restrictions-on-church-attendance-in-new-york-11606369004).

The high bench struck the balance in favor of the First Amendment's Free Exercise Clause.

Yes, but they didn't have to, because the clause reads Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances..

But in this context congress means the US congress, which is why historically the SCOTUS has not chosen to strike down state measures on public health.

So while I don't necessarily disagree with the sentiment, I'm also not convinced that it was good law.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on November 26, 2020, 12:52:20 PM
It's also important to note that South Dakota citizens aren't calling for their governor to resign. "Leadership" is a nice thought but they have the government they want deserve.

:P

So I guess “leadership” is a code word for telling folks what to do even if they aren’t interested? If so, I I’ll take a pass on this “leadership” thing. Just seems like a prettied up version of authoritarianism.

 I don’t happen to agree with how South Dakotans are dealing with this, but it’s ultimately their call and they bear the bulk of the consequences.

I just find it interesting how democratic ideals are vaunted on the one hand, but ignored when we don’t agree with the process or results. 
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on November 26, 2020, 02:08:43 PM
And this: Supreme Court Blocks Covid-19 Restrictions on Religious Services in New York (https://www.wsj.com/articles/supreme-court-blocks-covid-19-restrictions-on-church-attendance-in-new-york-11606369004).

The high bench struck the balance in favor of the First Amendment's Free Exercise Clause.

Yes, but they didn't have to, because the clause reads Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances..

But in this context congress means the US congress, which is why historically the SCOTUS has not chosen to strike down state measures on public health.

So while I don't necessarily disagree with the sentiment, I'm also not convinced that it was good law.

In this context, of a State-enacted restriction of  the free exercise of religion,  "Congress" actually does mean more than the word itself.

Under the Incorporation Doctrine,  the 14th Amendment's Due Process Clause applies to the States the rights enshrined in  the  Bill of Rights.

The Incorporation Doctrine means  that constitutional protections that proscribe  congressional acts that abridge these  liberties  also forbid acts of the States and their  political subdivisions from doing the same.

Under the Incorporation Doctrine the word "Congress" in the First Amendment is not exclusive to Congress. Incorporation of our First Amendment rights  actually means "Congress and the States and their political subdivisions shall make no law" __________.

Incorporation's protections are as crucial as they are  logical.

The guarantees of our rights would not be worth the parchment they are printed on if the Bill of Rights prohibited certain, encroaching  acts of Congress while not prohibiting  them if enacted by the States or  their political subdivisions.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: deborah on November 27, 2020, 01:35:19 AM
OK. Compare the US to Australia then, if you don't want to compare yourselves with NZ (which is doing better than us). We are repatriating citizens all the time, because many of our citizens are still stuck overseas. We have diplomats flying in all the time - many with covid, who then isolate at their embassies. Many people arriving here have covid, and our outbreaks have come from arrivals spreading it to the community in dense parts of cities.

Australia has a similar land area to the contiguous US. We do have a much smaller population BUT our population is one of the most urbanised in the world, and we have very few people in most of our landmass. If covid19 got into our rural and remote communities we would have a lot of deaths because those areas don't have their own services - they have a Flying Doctor service, where doctors in small airplanes land on remote landing strips and then the patients are treated or flown for hours to the nearest hospital. Our large cities do have millions of people (Sydney and Melbourne both have more than 4 million) even though we have less than 10 large cities. 28% or our population are from other countries - many more than the US. The Sydney to Melbourne air route was the second biggest in the world (pre covid19).

Like the US, all our states and territories make their own rules. We manufacture very little, so we import a lot of stuff (like NZ) - much more than the US per head of population. We are also a food bowl (like NZ), and we have a huge mining industry so we export a lot of stuff, and this is continuing throughout the pandemic.

Anyone can be tested - and everyone is encouraged to test even where I live, where there has been no community covid19 for about 200 days. We do have really good contact tracing - but that can only happen because they don't have that many people to trace. Our leaders are prepared to shut down hot spots when there are outbreaks. Last week there were 17 cases in a state because it escaped quarantine again. More than 4000 people were tested as a result. The neighbouring states shut down their borders. People in that city were put into lockdown for a few days.

We take it seriously. Leadership trust is making a big difference.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: the_fixer on November 27, 2020, 06:07:59 AM
OK. Compare the US to Australia then, if you don't want to compare yourselves with NZ (which is doing better than us). We are repatriating citizens all the time, because many of our citizens are still stuck overseas. We have diplomats flying in all the time - many with covid, who then isolate at their embassies. Many people arriving here have covid, and our outbreaks have come from arrivals spreading it to the community in dense parts of cities.

Australia has a similar land area to the contiguous US. We do have a much smaller population BUT our population is one of the most urbanised in the world, and we have very few people in most of our landmass. If covid19 got into our rural and remote communities we would have a lot of deaths because those areas don't have their own services - they have a Flying Doctor service, where doctors in small airplanes land on remote landing strips and then the patients are treated or flown for hours to the nearest hospital. Our large cities do have millions of people (Sydney and Melbourne both have more than 4 million) even though we have less than 10 large cities. 28% or our population are from other countries - many more than the US. The Sydney to Melbourne air route was the second biggest in the world (pre covid19).

Like the US, all our states and territories make their own rules. We manufacture very little, so we import a lot of stuff (like NZ) - much more than the US per head of population. We are also a food bowl (like NZ), and we have a huge mining industry so we export a lot of stuff, and this is continuing throughout the pandemic.

Anyone can be tested - and everyone is encouraged to test even where I live, where there has been no community covid19 for about 200 days. We do have really good contact tracing - but that can only happen because they don't have that many people to trace. Our leaders are prepared to shut down hot spots when there are outbreaks. Last week there were 17 cases in a state because it escaped quarantine again. More than 4000 people were tested as a result. The neighbouring states shut down their borders. People in that city were put into lockdown for a few days.

We take it seriously. Leadership trust is making a big difference.

I think Australia has done a great job and the US has done a horrible job but I do not think they are a good comparison to each other.

Australia has ~25 million people in ~7.7 mIllion square KM and while they have dense cities they are very distanced. Also climate is significantly different and it is an island.

US has ~333 million people in ~9.8 million square KM and we are spread out with little cities just miles apart across the entire country. 


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Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 27, 2020, 08:11:29 AM
OK. Compare the US to Australia then, if you don't want to compare yourselves with NZ (which is doing better than us). We are repatriating citizens all the time, because many of our citizens are still stuck overseas. We have diplomats flying in all the time - many with covid, who then isolate at their embassies. Many people arriving here have covid, and our outbreaks have come from arrivals spreading it to the community in dense parts of cities.

Australia has a similar land area to the contiguous US. We do have a much smaller population BUT our population is one of the most urbanised in the world, and we have very few people in most of our landmass. If covid19 got into our rural and remote communities we would have a lot of deaths because those areas don't have their own services - they have a Flying Doctor service, where doctors in small airplanes land on remote landing strips and then the patients are treated or flown for hours to the nearest hospital. Our large cities do have millions of people (Sydney and Melbourne both have more than 4 million) even though we have less than 10 large cities. 28% or our population are from other countries - many more than the US. The Sydney to Melbourne air route was the second biggest in the world (pre covid19).

Like the US, all our states and territories make their own rules. We manufacture very little, so we import a lot of stuff (like NZ) - much more than the US per head of population. We are also a food bowl (like NZ), and we have a huge mining industry so we export a lot of stuff, and this is continuing throughout the pandemic.

Anyone can be tested - and everyone is encouraged to test even where I live, where there has been no community covid19 for about 200 days. We do have really good contact tracing - but that can only happen because they don't have that many people to trace. Our leaders are prepared to shut down hot spots when there are outbreaks. Last week there were 17 cases in a state because it escaped quarantine again. More than 4000 people were tested as a result. The neighbouring states shut down their borders. People in that city were put into lockdown for a few days.

We take it seriously. Leadership trust is making a big difference.

I think Australia has done a great job and the US has done a horrible job but I do not think they are a good comparison to each other.

Australia has ~25 million people in ~7.7 mIllion square KM and while they have dense cities they are very distanced. Also climate is significantly different and it is an island.

US has ~333 million people in ~9.8 million square KM and we are spread out with little cities just miles apart across the entire country. 


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Seriously you have little cities spread out just miles apart across the entire country?  You have huge areas with very low population density, just like Australia and Canada have dense urban areas, less dense areas, and really sparse areas.  What map are you looking at?

If you want lots of little cities just miles apart, that describes any urban area, big city plus satellite cities.

Why the fixation on Europe?  They are totally autonomous countries.  The US, Canada and Australia all have the 3 tier level of government with health care being the responsibility of the middle tier, and overall strategy being the responsibility of the top tier.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: ender on November 27, 2020, 09:09:54 AM
Seriously you have little cities spread out just miles apart across the entire country?  You have huge areas with very low population density, just like Australia and Canada have dense urban areas, less dense areas, and really sparse areas.  What map are you looking at?

If you want lots of little cities just miles apart, that describes any urban area, big city plus satellite cities.

Why the fixation on Europe?  They are totally autonomous countries.  The US, Canada and Australia all have the 3 tier level of government with health care being the responsibility of the middle tier, and overall strategy being the responsibility of the top tier.

People in this thread seem to consistently misunderstand how the American governmental system works.

The federal government does not have the ability to mandate to the states how they should handle responses to covid. The president, for example, can't even legally issue a mask mandate let alone dictate a cohesive strategic response.

In the USA, states are incredibly independent - by design.

Trump certainly could have been a leader more and recommended various things to states. But there's really no way for him or arguably even congress to dictate to the entire 50 states a consistent covid response.

It's why people reference Europe vs other countries when discussing the USA and its response to covid, because the USA just isn't a top down country when it comes to a huge percentage of policy. There are extremely clear lines as to what the federal government can and cannot do.

There's a separate conversation about whether this separation of powers is good or not. Either way it's certainly the case now and it's a bit perplexing to me how many people do not seem to understand the actual federal vs states responsibilities in the USA (not just you @RetiredAt63, this whole thread is full of this perspective and in fact was created out of a fundamental misunderstanding of state vs federal responsibilities in the USA).
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: OtherJen on November 27, 2020, 09:51:29 AM
Seriously you have little cities spread out just miles apart across the entire country?  You have huge areas with very low population density, just like Australia and Canada have dense urban areas, less dense areas, and really sparse areas.  What map are you looking at?

If you want lots of little cities just miles apart, that describes any urban area, big city plus satellite cities.

Why the fixation on Europe?  They are totally autonomous countries.  The US, Canada and Australia all have the 3 tier level of government with health care being the responsibility of the middle tier, and overall strategy being the responsibility of the top tier.

People in this thread seem to consistently misunderstand how the American governmental system works.

The federal government does not have the ability to mandate to the states how they should handle responses to covid. The president, for example, can't even legally issue a mask mandate let alone dictate a cohesive strategic response.

In the USA, states are incredibly independent - by design.

Trump certainly could have been a leader more and recommended various things to states. But there's really no way for him or arguably even congress to dictate to the entire 50 states a consistent covid response.

It's why people reference Europe vs other countries when discussing the USA and its response to covid, because the USA just isn't a top down country when it comes to a huge percentage of policy. There are extremely clear lines as to what the federal government can and cannot do.

There's a separate conversation about whether this separation of powers is good or not. Either way it's certainly the case now and it's a bit perplexing to me how many people do not seem to understand the actual federal vs states responsibilities in the USA (not just you @RetiredAt63, this whole thread is full of this perspective and in fact was created out of a fundamental misunderstanding of state vs federal responsibilities in the USA).

This. And it's why a comparison to the EU, with its member-states, is a bit more appropriate than a comparison to NZ or Australia (besides the obvious difference in population size; the total population of NZ is just over half the population of my state alone).
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 27, 2020, 10:37:31 AM
Why the fixation on Europe?  They are totally autonomous countries.  The US, Canada and Australia all have the 3 tier level of government with health care being the responsibility of the middle tier, and overall strategy being the responsibility of the top tier.

What? No one in the USA is responsible for health care. Seriously, it's a dystopian failed state at this point.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: bacchi on November 27, 2020, 10:48:27 AM
It's also important to note that South Dakota citizens aren't calling for their governor to resign. "Leadership" is a nice thought but they have the government they want deserve.

:P

So I guess “leadership” is a code word for telling folks what to do even if they aren’t interested?

No, it's not. You misread the sub-thread.

Title: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: the_fixer on November 27, 2020, 10:50:15 AM
OK. Compare the US to Australia then, if you don't want to compare yourselves with NZ (which is doing better than us). We are repatriating citizens all the time, because many of our citizens are still stuck overseas. We have diplomats flying in all the time - many with covid, who then isolate at their embassies. Many people arriving here have covid, and our outbreaks have come from arrivals spreading it to the community in dense parts of cities.

Australia has a similar land area to the contiguous US. We do have a much smaller population BUT our population is one of the most urbanised in the world, and we have very few people in most of our landmass. If covid19 got into our rural and remote communities we would have a lot of deaths because those areas don't have their own services - they have a Flying Doctor service, where doctors in small airplanes land on remote landing strips and then the patients are treated or flown for hours to the nearest hospital. Our large cities do have millions of people (Sydney and Melbourne both have more than 4 million) even though we have less than 10 large cities. 28% or our population are from other countries - many more than the US. The Sydney to Melbourne air route was the second biggest in the world (pre covid19).

Like the US, all our states and territories make their own rules. We manufacture very little, so we import a lot of stuff (like NZ) - much more than the US per head of population. We are also a food bowl (like NZ), and we have a huge mining industry so we export a lot of stuff, and this is continuing throughout the pandemic.

Anyone can be tested - and everyone is encouraged to test even where I live, where there has been no community covid19 for about 200 days. We do have really good contact tracing - but that can only happen because they don't have that many people to trace. Our leaders are prepared to shut down hot spots when there are outbreaks. Last week there were 17 cases in a state because it escaped quarantine again. More than 4000 people were tested as a result. The neighbouring states shut down their borders. People in that city were put into lockdown for a few days.

We take it seriously. Leadership trust is making a big difference.

I think Australia has done a great job and the US has done a horrible job but I do not think they are a good comparison to each other.

Australia has ~25 million people in ~7.7 mIllion square KM and while they have dense cities they are very distanced. Also climate is significantly different and it is an island.

US has ~333 million people in ~9.8 million square KM and we are spread out with little cities just miles apart across the entire country. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Seriously you have little cities spread out just miles apart across the entire country?  You have huge areas with very low population density, just like Australia and Canada have dense urban areas, less dense areas, and really sparse areas.  What map are you looking at?

If you want lots of little cities just miles apart, that describes any urban area, big city plus satellite cities.

Why the fixation on Europe?  They are totally autonomous countries.  The US, Canada and Australia all have the 3 tier level of government with health care being the responsibility of the middle tier, and overall strategy being the responsibility of the top tier.

 I think you underestimate how little un inhabited area is located in the continental US and how many people live in rural areas creating a web of communities and roads that cover pretty much the entirety of the land mass.

Since you want a map how about a light pollution map

https://www.lightpollutionmap.info/#zoom=1.30&lat=14.7492&lon=14.5351&layers=B0FFFFFTFFFFFFFFFF

https://blue-marble.de/nightlights/2012

www.sciencealert.com/light-pollution-is-a-huge-problem-and-there-s-few-places-left-in-the-us-without-it/amp

And here is one for population. The dots for cities is pretty telling

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapping-population-density-dot-town/


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Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on November 27, 2020, 11:42:53 AM
Quote from: ender link=topic=119135.msg2741745#msg2741745

People in this thread seem to consistently misunderstand how the American governmental system works.

The federal government does not have the ability to mandate to the states how they should handle responses to covid. The president, for example, can't even legally issue a mask mandate let alone dictate a cohesive strategic response.

In the USA, states are incredibly independent - by design.

Trump certainly could have been a leader more and recommended various things to states. But there's really no way for him or arguably even congress to dictate to the entire 50 states a consistent covid response.

It's why people reference Europe vs other countries when discussing the USA and its response to covid, because the USA just isn't a top down country when it comes to a huge percentage of policy. There are extremely clear lines as to what the federal government can and cannot do.

There's a separate conversation about whether this separation of powers is good or not. Either way it's certainly the case now and it's a bit perplexing to me how many people do not seem to understand the actual federal vs states responsibilities in the USA (not just you @RetiredAt63, this whole thread is full of this perspective and in fact was created out of a fundamental misunderstanding of state vs federal responsibilities in the USA).




I am an avid, uncompromising  exponent of federalism.

Are you (ender and anyone else) a federalist?

I know RSM  is.


My favorite explication of federalism is Justice Hugo Black's reverential embrace of it  in Younger.



Younger v. Harris (1971)


This underlying reason for restraining courts of equity from interfering with criminal prosecutions is reinforced by an even more vital consideration, the notion of "comity," that is, a proper respect for state functions, a recognition of the fact that the entire country is made up of a Union of separate state governments, and a continuance of the belief that the National Government will fare best if the States and their institutions are left free to perform their separate functions in their separate ways.


This, perhaps for lack of a better and clearer way to describe it, is referred to by many as "Our Federalism," and one familiar with the profound debates that ushered our Federal Constitution into existence is bound to respect those who remain loyal to the ideals and dreams of "Our Federalism."

The concept does not mean blind deference to "States' Rights" any more than it means centralization of control over every important issue in our National Government and its courts.

The Framers rejected both these courses.

What the concept does represent is a system in which there is sensitivity to the legitimate interests of both State and National Governments, and in which the National Government, anxious though it may be to vindicate and protect federal rights and federal interests, always endeavors to do so in ways that will not unduly interfere with the legitimate activities of the States.

It should never be forgotten that this slogan, "Our Federalism," born in the early struggling days of our Union of States, occupies a highly important place in our Nation's history and its future.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 27, 2020, 12:12:22 PM
@ender and others   Re what your federal government can and cannot do, there also seems to be misunderstandings the other way. 

Our Prime Minister CAN NOT MAKE PEOPLE do anything re health initiatives, just like the US President cannot make people do anything.  It is up to our PROVINCIAL governments.  This is why I keep talking about a 3 tier system (federal, provincial/state, munical).  What our federal government can do is lead by example, and do a pile of country-wide financial support.  So Trudeau and Parliament wear masks and social distance to be good examples, and support vaccine research and reserve vaccine production and do financial support (like CERB) and control foreign entry, because those are things the federal government can do.  It is telling that the 3 worst provinces all have conservative governments (Alberta, Ontario, Quebec, Quebec's CAQ government is conservative).  NS, NB, PEI and Newfounland and Labrador have worked together to keep case loads low.

And our rural areas are pretty similar to the US, small towns connected by roads.  It may not be as obvious further north because most of our population is close to the border.

Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 27, 2020, 12:26:25 PM
Our Prime Minister CAN NOT MAKE PEOPLE do anything re health initiatives, just like the US President cannot make people do anything.  It is up to our PROVINCIAL governments.  This is why I keep talking about a 3 tier system (federal, provincial/state, munical).  What our federal government can do is lead by example, and do a pile of country-wide financial support.  So Trudeau and Parliament wear masks and social distance to be good examples, and support vaccine research and reserve vaccine production and do financial support (like CERB) and control foreign entry, because those are things the federal government can do....

I had to check, but I just noticed that your Liberals don't currently hold a majority in parliament. So, as a thought experiment, imagine that they did. Like in the UK, where the Tories have a healthy majority in the lower house.

With a healthy majority in the lower house in a parliamentary democracy you can get shit done. Neither the UK House of Lords nor the Canadian Senate would block public health legislation during a global pandemic. This is very different from the US system where we have a strong Senate and a separate strong executive. Good luck getting anything done.

To me, that is the single largest failing of the US system. It was designed with the intent of stopping bad legislation more than passing good legislation.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: wenchsenior on November 27, 2020, 01:19:27 PM
OK. Compare the US to Australia then, if you don't want to compare yourselves with NZ (which is doing better than us). We are repatriating citizens all the time, because many of our citizens are still stuck overseas. We have diplomats flying in all the time - many with covid, who then isolate at their embassies. Many people arriving here have covid, and our outbreaks have come from arrivals spreading it to the community in dense parts of cities.

Australia has a similar land area to the contiguous US. We do have a much smaller population BUT our population is one of the most urbanised in the world, and we have very few people in most of our landmass. If covid19 got into our rural and remote communities we would have a lot of deaths because those areas don't have their own services - they have a Flying Doctor service, where doctors in small airplanes land on remote landing strips and then the patients are treated or flown for hours to the nearest hospital. Our large cities do have millions of people (Sydney and Melbourne both have more than 4 million) even though we have less than 10 large cities. 28% or our population are from other countries - many more than the US. The Sydney to Melbourne air route was the second biggest in the world (pre covid19).

Like the US, all our states and territories make their own rules. We manufacture very little, so we import a lot of stuff (like NZ) - much more than the US per head of population. We are also a food bowl (like NZ), and we have a huge mining industry so we export a lot of stuff, and this is continuing throughout the pandemic.

Anyone can be tested - and everyone is encouraged to test even where I live, where there has been no community covid19 for about 200 days. We do have really good contact tracing - but that can only happen because they don't have that many people to trace. Our leaders are prepared to shut down hot spots when there are outbreaks. Last week there were 17 cases in a state because it escaped quarantine again. More than 4000 people were tested as a result. The neighbouring states shut down their borders. People in that city were put into lockdown for a few days.

We take it seriously. Leadership trust is making a big difference.

I think Australia has done a great job and the US has done a horrible job but I do not think they are a good comparison to each other.

Australia has ~25 million people in ~7.7 mIllion square KM and while they have dense cities they are very distanced. Also climate is significantly different and it is an island.

US has ~333 million people in ~9.8 million square KM and we are spread out with little cities just miles apart across the entire country. 


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Seriously you have little cities spread out just miles apart across the entire country?  You have huge areas with very low population density, just like Australia and Canada have dense urban areas, less dense areas, and really sparse areas.  What map are you looking at?

If you want lots of little cities just miles apart, that describes any urban area, big city plus satellite cities.

Why the fixation on Europe?  They are totally autonomous countries.  The US, Canada and Australia all have the 3 tier level of government with health care being the responsibility of the middle tier, and overall strategy being the responsibility of the top tier.

 I think you underestimate how little un inhabited area is located in the continental US and how many people live in rural areas creating a web of communities and roads that cover pretty much the entirety of the land mass.

Since you want a map how about a light pollution map

https://www.lightpollutionmap.info/#zoom=1.30&lat=14.7492&lon=14.5351&layers=B0FFFFFTFFFFFFFFFF

https://blue-marble.de/nightlights/2012

http://www.lightpollution.it/download/mondo_ridotto0p25.gi

www.sciencealert.com/light-pollution-is-a-huge-problem-and-there-s-few-places-left-in-the-us-without-it/amp

And here is one for population. The dots for cities is pretty telling

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapping-population-density-dot-town/


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That is truly horrifying.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: deborah on November 27, 2020, 01:21:24 PM
The three tier system in both Canada and Australia was copied from the US. The senate in Australia has been known to create constitutional crises at inconvenient times - after all, this is the type of time that everyone isn't necessarily going in the same direction. I don't know about the Canadian one.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 27, 2020, 02:14:50 PM
Our Prime Minister CAN NOT MAKE PEOPLE do anything re health initiatives, just like the US President cannot make people do anything.  It is up to our PROVINCIAL governments.  This is why I keep talking about a 3 tier system (federal, provincial/state, munical).  What our federal government can do is lead by example, and do a pile of country-wide financial support.  So Trudeau and Parliament wear masks and social distance to be good examples, and support vaccine research and reserve vaccine production and do financial support (like CERB) and control foreign entry, because those are things the federal government can do....

I had to check, but I just noticed that your Liberals don't currently hold a majority in parliament. So, as a thought experiment, imagine that they did. Like in the UK, where the Tories have a healthy majority in the lower house.

With a healthy majority in the lower house in a parliamentary democracy you can get shit done. Neither the UK House of Lords nor the Canadian Senate would block public health legislation during a global pandemic. This is very different from the US system where we have a strong Senate and a separate strong executive. Good luck getting anything done.

To me, that is the single largest failing of the US system. It was designed with the intent of stopping bad legislation more than passing good legislation.

Yes we have a minority government.  They still govern with the cooperation of other parties, right now the NDP.  They are passing legislation.  When they lose a vote of confidence (I.e. lose a money vote) we will have another election.

However, minority or majority, THEY ARE NOT IN CHARGE OF HEALTH CARE. Sorry to yell, but I have said this multiple times.  If they did that the Provinces would kick up a huge ruckus.

The BNA Act listed the powers of the federal government and the Provinces, with anything left out going to the Provinces.  That is why we have 13 health setups and 13 educational setups.  They are both provincial under the BNA Act.  The Provinces guard what is theirs just as strongly as your states guard what is theirs.  After all, the original provinces were separate mostly self-governing colonies before they joined together, and they certainly weren't going to give anything up. 
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: stoaX on November 27, 2020, 02:16:58 PM
New Zealand density per sq km map: http://infoshare.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/browse-categories/population/estimates-projections/SubnationalPopulationEstimates_AtJun17_MR3/map-snpe-30jun17-pop-density.png?h=716&w=500
 note the medium blue (100-200 per sq km)

US density per sq km map: https://www.mapbusinessonline.com/Content/images/map_gallery/usa-population-density.png
 note the darkest red (100-30,000 per sq km)

US and NZ land area for comparison:https://external-preview.redd.it/yalhG3bkQUJftNa8B0L7SbzFBvMqpQ1g4in1gsP02Bg.jpg?auto=webp&s=3b5f1f0a92fd70093f937fbc751faf6c2a45e29e

One can see how density (which is directly related to rate of spread for respiratory infection) creates two different problems for the two countries.

I decided to be a huge dork and made this graphic from the above maps.

Very cool map - thanks!
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 27, 2020, 02:30:04 PM
Yes we have a minority government.  They still govern with the cooperation of other parties, right now the NDP.  They are passing legislation.  When they lose a vote of confidence (I.e. lose a money vote) we will have another election.

However, minority or majority, THEY ARE NOT IN CHARGE OF HEALTH CARE. Sorry to yell, but I have said this multiple times.  If they did that the Provinces would kick up a huge ruckus.

The BNA Act listed the powers of the federal government and the Provinces, with anything left out going to the Provinces.  That is why we have 13 health setups and 13 educational setups.  They are both provincial under the BNA Act.  The Provinces guard what is theirs just as strongly as your states guard what is theirs.  After all, the original provinces were separate mostly self-governing colonies before they joined together, and they certainly weren't going to give anything up.

Yes, and? The BNA Act and be modified with a simple majority in that parliament that you just mentioned, right? That is fundamentally different that the US system.

I don't see how this is different than devolved authority in Scotland. They have devolved authority, but only because the House of Commons in Westminster gave it to them.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: former player on November 27, 2020, 02:48:45 PM
Yes we have a minority government.  They still govern with the cooperation of other parties, right now the NDP.  They are passing legislation.  When they lose a vote of confidence (I.e. lose a money vote) we will have another election.

However, minority or majority, THEY ARE NOT IN CHARGE OF HEALTH CARE. Sorry to yell, but I have said this multiple times.  If they did that the Provinces would kick up a huge ruckus.

The BNA Act listed the powers of the federal government and the Provinces, with anything left out going to the Provinces.  That is why we have 13 health setups and 13 educational setups.  They are both provincial under the BNA Act.  The Provinces guard what is theirs just as strongly as your states guard what is theirs.  After all, the original provinces were separate mostly self-governing colonies before they joined together, and they certainly weren't going to give anything up.

Yes, and? The BNA Act and be modified with a simple majority in that parliament that you just mentioned, right? That is fundamentally different that the US system.

I don't see how this is different than devolved authority in Scotland. They have devolved authority, but only because the House of Commons in Westminster gave it to them.
And the practical difference is what?  Until the change happens, nothing.  And will the change ever happen?  No.

I understand, theoretically, that the US Constitution is emotionally important to its citizens.  But the idea that it is particularly wonderful doesn't really play in other democracies, particularly after we've seen what Trump has been able to do under it.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 27, 2020, 02:54:46 PM
And the practical difference is what?  Until the change happens, nothing.  And will the change ever happen?  No.

You think that if some provinces just refused to implement the Canada Health Act nothing would happen? Because that's exactly what happened with Obamacare. There are still multiple states that never expanded medicaid.

Likewise, if one of Canada's provinces looked like North Dakota right now, you think that the Parliament wouldn't step in? I'm leery of that claim.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 27, 2020, 02:56:28 PM
Yes we have a minority government.  They still govern with the cooperation of other parties, right now the NDP.  They are passing legislation.  When they lose a vote of confidence (I.e. lose a money vote) we will have another election.

However, minority or majority, THEY ARE NOT IN CHARGE OF HEALTH CARE. Sorry to yell, but I have said this multiple times.  If they did that the Provinces would kick up a huge ruckus.

The BNA Act listed the powers of the federal government and the Provinces, with anything left out going to the Provinces.  That is why we have 13 health setups and 13 educational setups.  They are both provincial under the BNA Act.  The Provinces guard what is theirs just as strongly as your states guard what is theirs.  After all, the original provinces were separate mostly self-governing colonies before they joined together, and they certainly weren't going to give anything up.

Yes, and? The BNA Act and be modified with a simple majority in that parliament that you just mentioned, right? That is fundamentally different that the US system.

I don't see how this is different than devolved authority in Scotland. They have devolved authority, but only because the House of Commons in Westminster gave it to them.

If you had googled you would see it isn't that easy.

We repatriated the BNA Act a while ago, but changing it is NOT easy.  It needs to pass the House, the Senate, and at least 7 provinces representing 50% of the population.  That 7 provinces/50% population thing basically makes it almost impossible to do anything.  Google Meech Lake Accord.

Plus stepping on Provincial rights?  I am sure it would end up in the Supreme court.  Every province has its own agenda, but they would be super united against that.  What would your various states do if your Federal government tried that?
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 27, 2020, 03:02:22 PM
If you had googled you would see it isn't that easy.

I did, but I am more familiar with the US and UK constitutions, so I didn't know the right search terms.

We repatriated the BNA Act a while ago, but changing it is NOT easy.  It needs to pass the House, the Senate, and at least 7 provinces representing 50% of the population.  That 7 provinces/50% population thing basically makes it almost impossible to do anything.  Google Meech Lake Accord.

Congrats, you managed to legislate your way into a quagmire. That was dumb.

But along those lines, you don't realize how nice you have it with your senate. When was the last time that your senate blocked everything that came out of the house for years?
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 27, 2020, 03:11:25 PM
And the practical difference is what?  Until the change happens, nothing.  And will the change ever happen?  No.

You think that if some provinces just refused to implement the Canada Health Act nothing would happen? Because that's exactly what happened with Obamacare. There are still multiple states that never expanded medicaid.

Likewise, if one of Canada's provinces looked like North Dakota right now, you think that the Parliament wouldn't step in? I'm leery of that claim.

If a Province didn't implement the Canada Health Act its residents would lose reciprocity with other provinces and the Feds would withdraw funding.  Kenney is playing games with health care (and education) now, it will be interesting to see what happens in the next Alberta election.  They have 14,000 active cases right now out of a population of just under 4.5 million, worst in the country.  It's all Kenney's responsibility.  And Ford's for Ontario.   And Legault's for Quebec.  And Horgan's for BC .  Etc etc.  It's stupid when people blame Trudeau for things he has no power over.  Being PM is not being supreme dictator.

Seriously, why do Americans think their governments have these clearly defined boundaries and we are loosey-goosey?  The only thing Alberta and Quebec agree on is limiting federal power. And every other province agrees on that as well.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 27, 2020, 03:13:49 PM
Seriously, why do Americans think their governments have these clearly defined boundaries and we are loosey-goosey?  The only thing Alberta and Quebec agree on is limiting federal power. And every other province agrees on that as well.

It's not that I'm American, it's that I'm a UK citizen. I wrongly thought that your system was closer to the UK's.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 27, 2020, 03:17:34 PM
If you had googled you would see it isn't that easy.

I did, but I am more familiar with the US and UK constitutions, so I didn't know the right search terms.

We repatriated the BNA Act a while ago, but changing it is NOT easy.  It needs to pass the House, the Senate, and at least 7 provinces representing 50% of the population.  That 7 provinces/50% population thing basically makes it almost impossible to do anything.  Google Meech Lake Accord.

Congrats, you managed to legislate your way into a quagmire. That was dumb.

But along those lines, you don't realize how nice you have it with your senate. When was the last time that your senate blocked everything that came out of the house for years?

I think the theory was that anything blindingly in need of change would pass, but otherwise things work well enough not to change.  You know, if it ain't broke don't fix it.  But remember I'm a biologist who has watched a lot of federal governments, not a constitutional expert.

Re the Senate, never.  But recently the Senate brought out over 100 amendments to new environmental legislation that would have totally watered it down. They eventually withdrew them after public pressure. Heavily conservative Senate when the Senate is supposed to be non-partisan, thanks Harper.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: deborah on November 27, 2020, 03:32:53 PM
And the practical difference is what?  Until the change happens, nothing.  And will the change ever happen?  No.

You think that if some provinces just refused to implement the Canada Health Act nothing would happen? Because that's exactly what happened with Obamacare. There are still multiple states that never expanded medicaid.

Likewise, if one of Canada's provinces looked like North Dakota right now, you think that the Parliament wouldn't step in? I'm leery of that claim.
What's happening in the US could happen in Australia. The states have to agree to things the Federal government wants to do. The federal government decided they wanted to build a road in one of our states, and the state didn't want to, so it didn't happen, even though the federal government tried to force them to do it by withholding funds for other things over a period of years.

We are a continent, not an island - we're 3 and a half times the size of Greenland. Having such a small rural population means that if covid19 got into it we would really be in trouble - the remoteness of everyone is significantly more of a challenge than in more populous areas. There's no easy way to transfer people. As we are also one of the most urbanised nations on earth, we also have the problems that density brings with covid19. If we had uncontrolled outbreaks, it would thus be much more difficult to stop in Australia than in many other places. That's possibly one reason why we're so quick to smother every outbreak. But, if other nations (or states) smothered it as soon as it appeared each time, they could do as well as us. It would be good if that had happened, because the world wouldn't need to start to be able to live with it, and poorer countries may never have had its challenges.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 27, 2020, 03:38:22 PM
Seriously, why do Americans think their governments have these clearly defined boundaries and we are loosey-goosey?  The only thing Alberta and Quebec agree on is limiting federal power. And every other province agrees on that as well.

It's not that I'm American, it's that I'm a UK citizen. I wrongly thought that your system was closer to the UK's.

Oh, ours is.  Remember we left gradually, not like the traitors to the South*.  House of Commons, appointed Senate replaces House of Lords.  The Prime Minister is the leader of the Party that has the majority or can form a functional minority.  PM elected in his/her own riding, not country-wide. The difference is the Provinces, we started with 4 Provinces and added more as appropriate.  The last was Newfoundland and Labrador in 1949.  Since one of the original 4 was Quebec, the Fathers of Confederation had to sort out ways that would keep Quebec happy without upsetting everyone else.  Things like criminal law is federal, civil law is provincial.  That way Quebec kept its civil law based on the French Napoleonic code, while the others were based on English common law.  Federally we are officially bilingual, provincially it varies.  New Brunswick is the only officially bilingual province.  Religion, well with a massively Roman Catholic province in the mix religion has generally been a non-topic politically.  For a long time the Liberals alternated between a Quebec and non-Quebec head of party, which also meant we have had lots of Catholic PMs.  Including Trudeau pere et fils, btw.  And of course our present leader of the NDP is Sikh.

So externally, the Provinces and clear federal/provincial responsibilities make us look more like the US.  But internally we look like just another Commonwealth Country whose Governor-General is the representative of our Queen, who chooses to live elsewhere.  Rideau Hall is always ready if she wants to leave the drizzle.  ;-)

* I have a bit of United Empire Loyalist ancestry, which means they were political refugees before that was a term.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 27, 2020, 04:00:25 PM
Seriously, why do Americans think their governments have these clearly defined boundaries and we are loosey-goosey?  The only thing Alberta and Quebec agree on is limiting federal power. And every other province agrees on that as well.

It's not that I'm American, it's that I'm a UK citizen. I wrongly thought that your system was closer to the UK's.

Oh, ours is.

Yes and no. It sounds like you couldn't gut a province with an act of parliament (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Constitution_Act_1973).
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 27, 2020, 04:51:34 PM
Seriously, why do Americans think their governments have these clearly defined boundaries and we are loosey-goosey?  The only thing Alberta and Quebec agree on is limiting federal power. And every other province agrees on that as well.

It's not that I'm American, it's that I'm a UK citizen. I wrongly thought that your system was closer to the UK's.

Oh, ours is.

Yes and no. It sounds like you couldn't gut a province with an act of parliament (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Constitution_Act_1973).

Um no.    The relationship of the Provinces to each other and to the federal government bear no relationship to those of Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales to England and the UK.  Editorially, I would say fortunately so (shudders at the thought).  I don't think that could happen in Australia either.  We are not the union of various kingdoms, we are the confederation of various provinces.  Seriously, the thought of the Feds doing that to an annoying province, say Quebec or Alberta, brings thoughts of the breakup of the country.  We didn't do it during the height of the FLQ, which admittedly wasn't as violent as the IRA, but was pretty violent for us, bad enough for the War Measures Act.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Bloop Bloop Reloaded on November 28, 2020, 04:13:55 AM
I see OP hasn't been back to defend the absolutely stupid statements that were made.

The US handling of Covid has been imperfect, but in a country that's so fragmented (in terms of its level of governments) and in a country with a massive population, lots of intra-country travel and lots of big cities, it's understandable that it's hard to bring Covid under control.

The US also is more freedom-centric than, say, Australia, which means that its ability to get a pandemic under control is inferior, but it does of course benefit in other ways from its freedom-centrism, such as via its higher economic output. In New Zealand the populace were happy for the government to act against the rule of law in order to implement a wide, harsh lockdown; in the US you care about the rule of law and about citizens' individual freedoms, and I can totally understand the perspective. Likewise here in Melbourne we have had no cases for a month and yet there are still restrictions on small businesses' ability to access their office premises; that would never be tolerated in the U.S.

In fact here in Melbourne there was a several week period where we were in max stage lockdown uniformly throughout the city even though many postcodes had nil active cases and 90% of the active cases were in 5 or 6 postcodes. It would be the equivalent of asking Hollywood residents to lockdown because there were active cases in Compton and Long Beach. Again, in the U.S. it would never happen.

You can debate which approach is superior but I have a lot of sympathy for Americans and the proud traditions that America brings and which have made it the greatest country on Earth (till maybe Trump came along).
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: former player on November 28, 2020, 05:46:39 AM
I see OP hasn't been back to defend the absolutely stupid statements that were made.

The US handling of Covid has been imperfect, but in a country that's so fragmented (in terms of its level of governments) and in a country with a massive population, lots of intra-country travel and lots of big cities, it's understandable that it's hard to bring Covid under control.

The US also is more freedom-centric than, say, Australia, which means that its ability to get a pandemic under control is inferior, but it does of course benefit in other ways from its freedom-centrism, such as via its higher economic output. In New Zealand the populace were happy for the government to act against the rule of law in order to implement a wide, harsh lockdown; in the US you care about the rule of law and about citizens' individual freedoms, and I can totally understand the perspective. Likewise here in Melbourne we have had no cases for a month and yet there are still restrictions on small businesses' ability to access their office premises; that would never be tolerated in the U.S.

In fact here in Melbourne there was a several week period where we were in max stage lockdown uniformly throughout the city even though many postcodes had nil active cases and 90% of the active cases were in 5 or 6 postcodes. It would be the equivalent of asking Hollywood residents to lockdown because there were active cases in Compton and Long Beach. Again, in the U.S. it would never happen.

You can debate which approach is superior but I have a lot of sympathy for Americans and the proud traditions that America brings and which have made it the greatest country on Earth (till maybe Trump came along).
I haven't seen much evidence lately that Americans believe in the rule of law.  Trump certainly doesn't.  The militia's don't.  The "won't wear a mask even when it's mandated" lot don't.  American "freedom" has nothing to do with the rule of law, either inside America or in American actions outside America, and probably never has.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Bloop Bloop Reloaded on November 28, 2020, 06:01:37 AM
Trump may not have, but all the judges who threw out the lawsuits, and the Fox News pundits who called out Trump's mis-information, and heck even Fox News itself which called the right states at the right time, and guys like Chris Christie who called out Trump - all of them believe in the rule of law.

America is a beautiful country - one that is regularly shat on by foreigners who know nothing of it, and one whose citizens sometimes forget how privileged they are.  Having lived in the U.S., I fondly remember a lot of its great points.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: former player on November 28, 2020, 06:22:33 AM
Trump may not have, but all the judges who threw out the lawsuits, and the Fox News pundits who called out Trump's mis-information, and heck even Fox News itself which called the right states at the right time, and guys like Chris Christie who called out Trump - all of them believe in the rule of law.

America is a beautiful country - one that is regularly shat on by foreigners who know nothing of it, and one whose citizens sometimes forget how privileged they are.  Having lived in the U.S., I fondly remember a lot of its great points.
I thought we were talking about the pandemic, not the election.  Court decisions on the pandemic have been consistently against state actions to control the pandemic.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 28, 2020, 06:43:15 AM
Bloop bloop, it spreads so fast and so easily.  I posted the url in the flattening the curve thread of the public health doctor in Kingston, Ontario explaining how one person's business trip to Toronto had caused over 25 cases in Kingston.  It could just as easily happen within a city, say Melbourne.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: deborah on November 28, 2020, 08:14:09 AM
There was the truckie from Melbourne who spread it to regional Victoria including Shepparton.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 28, 2020, 09:08:05 AM
There was the truckie from Melbourne who spread it to regional Victoria including Shepparton.

Yup, just takes one person shedding virus and moving around.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on November 28, 2020, 09:11:28 AM
Trump may not have, but all the judges who threw out the lawsuits, and the Fox News pundits who called out Trump's mis-information, and heck even Fox News itself which called the right states at the right time, and guys like Chris Christie who called out Trump - all of them believe in the rule of law.

America is a beautiful country - one that is regularly shat on by foreigners who know nothing of it, and one whose citizens sometimes forget how privileged they are.  Having lived in the U.S., I fondly remember a lot of its great points.
I thought we were talking about the pandemic, not the election.  Court decisions on the pandemic have been consistently against state actions to control the pandemic.
Court cases have fairly consistently come down against the restrictions, particularly in cases where it restricts a specifically enumerated right, such as the right to assemble for redress of grievances and for religious services. As was the case recently in NY where the courts decided that no, you can’t shut down religious services but leave liquor stores open. You might also notice that the police in the US have been extremely reluctant to shut down political demonstrations. Because they’re well aware that the courts will likely rule against them. Why arrest people to have them get let out in short order. And most likely have them sue the police (successfully) for civil rights violations?

But I think what’s missing from the analysis is the cultural aspects. The courts are politicized just like every other aspect of government. If there wasn’t a difference of opinion, the courts wouldn’t be involved or would figure out a way to go along in any case. So while a lot of folks, particularly outside the US, applaud the relatively authoritarian measures being taken in certain places like NY, it’s basically a losing play in the long run. Yeah, it may save some lives but longer term the cost of those restrictions is going to really hurt places like NY. Because the persistent culture of disobedience has folks voting with their feet. Right now the big thing in NY isn’t getting a reservation with at a restaurant, it’s getting a reservation with a moving company. And we’re seeing that in California as well as other crowded, coastal areas. The ones that also have the more COVID restrictions. And where are people heading? To the suburbs primarily but the interior states as well. The interior states that have the fewest restrictions are seeing an in-migration boom.

So while we might cluck our tongues at people such as the Governor of South Dakota who has imposed really no COVID related restrictions, the fact is she’s playing the long game very well. South Dakota is a very thinly populated place without a whole lot going for it. It’s cold as hell in winter and has mosquitoes like you wouldn’t believe in the summer. But it’s population is on the bleeding edge of personal freedom and has no state income tax. And they’re seeing a large number of folks moving in. A year from now with a vaccine, South Dakota will be a net winner.  Oh and the governor? Look for her to be running for national office in a few years.

The upshot is the US has a culture that relatively speaking is not interested in restrictions and glorifies in rebelling against “the man.” You see it throughout the culture. The tolerance that other countries have for fairly draconian measures to control COVID just doesn’t exist to a large extent.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Cranky on November 28, 2020, 09:40:07 AM
The police have pretty much said that aren't interested in enforcing mask mandates, anyway.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: deborah on November 28, 2020, 10:45:29 AM
The upshot is the US has a culture that relatively speaking is not interested in restrictions and glorifies in rebelling against “the man.” You see it throughout the culture. The tolerance that other countries have for fairly draconian measures to control COVID just doesn’t exist to a large extent.
I don’t think this is true. You wouldn’t have laws if it was. When I have visited, I have been surprised at how prescriptive life is there. I think you do have draconian measures, but that they are different types of draconian measures to the ones we are happy with here.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 28, 2020, 11:19:09 AM
The upshot is the US has a culture that relatively speaking is not interested in restrictions and glorifies in rebelling against “the man.” You see it throughout the culture. The tolerance that other countries have for fairly draconian measures to control COVID just doesn’t exist to a large extent.
I don’t think this is true. You wouldn’t have laws if it was. When I have visited, I have been surprised at how prescriptive life is there. I think you do have draconian measures, but that they are different types of draconian measures to the ones we are happy with here.

Deborah, we are next door to the US so our laws and their laws are what we are used to.  What seemed draconian to you that would fly under our radar?  I didn't notice laws that would seem draconian to me while In was in Australia and NZ but they probably didn't impinge on my visit.  And of course I left before Covid really affected life.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: former player on November 28, 2020, 11:44:11 AM
One that seems strange to me is jaywalking.  In England I have the right to pass and repass along the Queen's highway as I like as long as I am not obstructing traffic.  The idea that someone should restrict my right to walk along or across the road wherever I like is odd.  That they should do so in the "land of the free" is even odder.  "Jaywalking" doesn't even have an equivalent word in English English, let alone being a criminal offence.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Kris on November 28, 2020, 11:53:27 AM
One that seems strange to me is jaywalking.  In England I have the right to pass and repass along the Queen's highway as I like as long as I am not obstructing traffic.  The idea that someone should restrict my right to walk along or across the road wherever I like is odd.  That they should do so in the "land of the free" is even odder.  "Jaywalking" doesn't even have an equivalent word in English English, let alone being a criminal offence.

It’s because cars are king in the US.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: deborah on November 28, 2020, 12:54:49 PM
One that seems strange to me is jaywalking.  In England I have the right to pass and repass along the Queen's highway as I like as long as I am not obstructing traffic.  The idea that someone should restrict my right to walk along or across the road wherever I like is odd.  That they should do so in the "land of the free" is even odder.  "Jaywalking" doesn't even have an equivalent word in English English, let alone being a criminal offence.
That's exactly the type of thing I'm talking about. A completely different example is elections. Our politicians can call elections within certain boundaries (they are only elected for a certain number of years, so the election must be held before that time period is up...), but in the US a number of elections (maybe all) are held on prescribed dates.

I was visiting all the great lakes while I was in Canada, and I realised that one of them (Lake Michigan?) was totally in the US. I figured I could cross into the US (I had a visa), drive down to Lake Michigan, have lunch at a nice spot by the lake, and come back into Canada to continue my perambulations. The guy at the border had to have an address that I was staying at in the US to fill out his paperwork. The fact that I was booked into the Canadian border town that night wasn't good enough.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on November 28, 2020, 12:55:28 PM
The upshot is the US has a culture that relatively speaking is not interested in restrictions and glorifies in rebelling against “the man.” You see it throughout the culture. The tolerance that other countries have for fairly draconian measures to control COVID just doesn’t exist to a large extent.
I don’t think this is true. You wouldn’t have laws if it was. When I have visited, I have been surprised at how prescriptive life is there. I think you do have draconian measures, but that they are different types of draconian measures to the ones we are happy with here.

Thanks for the note and I appreciate a different opinion.

Laws aren’t the point. Obedience to them and enforcement are. And things have changed over the last 20 or so years. Drug laws are observed in the breach if at all, as are a lot of other laws proscribing nonviolent behavior. While I personally don’t like the theft and fraud aspects of that, we are where we are. And it’s not a blue/ red thing. For example, the state of Connecticut passed a law requiring the registration of certain rifles after the Sandy Hook killings. The compliance rate was laughably low. The state estimated there were roughly 372,000 of them in the state before the law. A little over 50,000 were registered.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 28, 2020, 01:12:26 PM
The police have pretty much said that aren't interested in enforcing mask mandates, anyway.

This is my largest complaint in the USA. Even the rules that we do have are not enforced. But I guess that is also true for a bunch of other laws and regulations.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: deborah on November 28, 2020, 01:43:55 PM
The upshot is the US has a culture that relatively speaking is not interested in restrictions and glorifies in rebelling against “the man.” You see it throughout the culture. The tolerance that other countries have for fairly draconian measures to control COVID just doesn’t exist to a large extent.
I don’t think this is true. You wouldn’t have laws if it was. When I have visited, I have been surprised at how prescriptive life is there. I think you do have draconian measures, but that they are different types of draconian measures to the ones we are happy with here.

Thanks for the note and I appreciate a different opinion.

Laws aren’t the point. Obedience to them and enforcement are. And things have changed over the last 20 or so years. Drug laws are observed in the breach if at all, as are a lot of other laws proscribing nonviolent behavior. While I personally don’t like the theft and fraud aspects of that, we are where we are. And it’s not a blue/ red thing. For example, the state of Connecticut passed a law requiring the registration of certain rifles after the Sandy Hook killings. The compliance rate was laughably low. The state estimated there were roughly 372,000 of them in the state before the law. A little over 50,000 were registered.
Are laws are enforced more vigorously on some parts of the population? Could this be one cause of black lives matter problems?
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on November 28, 2020, 01:47:19 PM
The police have pretty much said that aren't interested in enforcing mask mandates, anyway.

This is my largest complaint in the USA. Even the rules that we do have are not enforced. But I guess that is also true for a bunch of other laws and regulations.

I see it differently. We am extraordinarily free society in practice as a result.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 28, 2020, 02:17:09 PM
The police have pretty much said that aren't interested in enforcing mask mandates, anyway.

This is my largest complaint in the USA. Even the rules that we do have are not enforced. But I guess that is also true for a bunch of other laws and regulations.

I see it differently. We am extraordinarily free society in practice as a result.

An extraordinarily free society with cyclists/pedestrians getting mowed down by motorists and civilians getting mowed down by rampage shooters that acquired their weapons through straw-sales. Yup, so much freedom.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on November 28, 2020, 02:24:39 PM
The police have pretty much said that aren't interested in enforcing mask mandates, anyway.

This is my largest complaint in the USA. Even the rules that we do have are not enforced. But I guess that is also true for a bunch of other laws and regulations.

I see it differently. We am extraordinarily free society in practice as a result.

An extraordinarily free society with cyclists/pedestrians getting mowed down by motorists and civilians getting mowed down by rampage shooters that acquired their weapons through straw-sales. Yup, so much freedom.

Obviously you’re not happy with the status quo. Freedom is a risk as well as a reward. So, why not exercise your right to vote with your feet? There are states that are comparatively “woke” and others that aren’t interested. Move to the environment that suits you and everyone is happy.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 28, 2020, 02:26:42 PM
Obviously you’re not happy with the status quo. Freedom is a risk as well as a reward. So, why not exercise your right to vote with your feet? There are states that are comparatively “woke” and others that aren’t interested. Move to the environment that suits you and everyone is happy.

More woke than Oregon? Or do you mean a different nation state? Because I plan to do that as soon as I have milked nine more years of west-coast tech salary.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on November 28, 2020, 03:08:33 PM
The upshot is the US has a culture that relatively speaking is not interested in restrictions and glorifies in rebelling against “the man.” You see it throughout the culture. The tolerance that other countries have for fairly draconian measures to control COVID just doesn’t exist to a large extent.

I don’t think this is true. You wouldn’t have laws if it was. When I have visited, I have been surprised at how prescriptive life is there. I think you do have draconian measures, but that they are different types of draconian measures to the ones we are happy with here.

When you visited America what did you see or experience that was prescriptive as to yourself or life in America in  general?
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Paul der Krake on November 28, 2020, 03:26:31 PM
Obviously you’re not happy with the status quo. Freedom is a risk as well as a reward. So, why not exercise your right to vote with your feet? There are states that are comparatively “woke” and others that aren’t interested. Move to the environment that suits you and everyone is happy.

More woke than Oregon? Or do you mean a different nation state? Because I plan to do that as soon as I have milked nine more years of west-coast tech salary.
I can't imagine sticking it for 18 years in a country I despise. If you're only in it for the tech money you might as well move to Dubai, you'll make more there and can escape faster.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 28, 2020, 03:31:25 PM
Obviously you’re not happy with the status quo. Freedom is a risk as well as a reward. So, why not exercise your right to vote with your feet? There are states that are comparatively “woke” and others that aren’t interested. Move to the environment that suits you and everyone is happy.

More woke than Oregon? Or do you mean a different nation state? Because I plan to do that as soon as I have milked nine more years of west-coast tech salary.
I can't imagine sticking it for 18 years in a country I despise. If you're only in it for the tech money you might as well move to Dubai, you'll make more there and can escape faster.

Well, my kids are here too. I don't despise the USA. I just don't love it either.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: deborah on November 28, 2020, 03:45:02 PM
Life anywhere is prescriptive - we all have laws. Different countries and states have decided on different ways to do things. When you visit a place, you notice differences. This doesn’t make either set of laws better than the others - each society has decided to live slightly differently.

For instance, we drive on the left. Many tourists visit the Great Ocean Road, and there are now signs all the way along it reminding people to drive on the left because visitors often start driving on the wrong side of the road and cause collisions. They also stop in the middle of the road to look at the koalas, and cause chaos. I noticed a lot of people stopping in the middle of the road to look at black bears when I was in North America, but people in Australia don’t tend to stop in the middle of the road, so we’re not expecting it when visitors do.

You notice laws that are different to the ones you’re used to, and you find them a bit jarring if you need to continually adjust - getting into the opposite side of the car and driving on the opposite side of the road obviously fit into that category. Sometimes differences are more of a problem. When you’re walking, the opposite road rules can make you more likely to be run over because you check the traffic in the opposite direction most.

People from the US continually say that they have more freedom, so I possibly find the extra rules there more unexpected than elsewhere.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on November 28, 2020, 04:58:15 PM
Life anywhere is prescriptive - we all have laws. Different countries and states have decided on different ways to do things. When you visit a place, you notice differences. This doesn’t make either set of laws better than the others - each society has decided to live slightly differently.

For instance, we drive on the left. Many tourists visit the Great Ocean Road, and there are now signs all the way along it reminding people to drive on the left because visitors often start driving on the wrong side of the road and cause collisions. They also stop in the middle of the road to look at the koalas, and cause chaos. I noticed a lot of people stopping in the middle of the road to look at black bears when I was in North America, but people in Australia don’t tend to stop in the middle of the road, so we’re not expecting it when visitors do.

You notice laws that are different to the ones you’re used to, and you find them a bit jarring if you need to continually adjust - getting into the opposite side of the car and driving on the opposite side of the road obviously fit into that category. Sometimes differences are more of a problem. When you’re walking, the opposite road rules can make you more likely to be run over because you check the traffic in the opposite direction most.

People from the US continually say that they have more freedom, so I possibly find the extra rules there more unexpected than elsewhere.

Noted.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Bloop Bloop Reloaded on November 28, 2020, 05:09:29 PM
The upshot is the US has a culture that relatively speaking is not interested in restrictions and glorifies in rebelling against “the man.” You see it throughout the culture. The tolerance that other countries have for fairly draconian measures to control COVID just doesn’t exist to a large extent.
I don’t think this is true. You wouldn’t have laws if it was. When I have visited, I have been surprised at how prescriptive life is there. I think you do have draconian measures, but that they are different types of draconian measures to the ones we are happy with here.

Having lived for extended periods in both the U.S. and Australia, I think both societies (to generalise) are prescriptive but in different ways.

Here in my state in Australia it's accepted that if you drive 7km/h over etc speed limit and get caught you are subject to a $190 speeding fine. 11km/h a limit goes up to $390. Compare Germany where the equivalent fines are about 20-30 Euro.

Strangely, it's also accepted that if you fail to give way and hit someone's car, you are only issued the same "failure to give way" fine of $390 and you don't get any extra panelty for hitting someone's car. If you're poor and can't pay for insurance you get off free because we have very high judgment/sheriff enforcement costs. Even in cases where people KILL people through negligent driving, as long as there's no alcohol, speeding or intoxication at stake, there's no jail sentence.

In the U.S., speeding is enforced much less harshly - in fact some states still happily allow radar jammers - but if you get in an accident and cause injury or death, the judicial punishment/fine is much greater.

In other words, I've found that Australia punishes 'intention' fairly harshly, but it punishes 'outcomes' very gently if the intention wasn't there. It's a society that favours people without the cognitive resources to appreciate the risks they're taking. America is a society that doesn't care so much about intentions but harshly punishes outcomes.

You could say either, or both, are prescriptive approaches.

I also feel Americans work much harder than Australians, mainly because jobs there are so much more precarious. A mistake at work can lead to firing. Downside is more stress. Upside is more productivity and much, much, much, higher salaries for first-rate professionals. Here in Australia the spread of wages is much more even and productivity spread is more even too. I used to manage a lady who'd spend 2-3 hours a day checking in on her home business from work. She did it in the open. She guessed, correctly, that with Australia's worker protections plus the severance pay she'd built up from 10+ years in the job that it was much more expensive for me to counsel/fire her than it was to just accept a 1/3 reduction in productivity.

Each person's individual liberty can come at the expense of someone else's preferences. The mix of liberty and preference shifts between countries. America is at one end of the spectrum. Australia is somewhere between the middle and the other end. It's interesting to see how that has informed the covid response.  In the states, no one wanted to sacrifice more than anyone else. Here in Australia, the majority was forced into sacrificing in order to protect the minority. That's something that would never happen in the States.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: PDXTabs on November 28, 2020, 06:02:03 PM
Strangely, it's also accepted that if you fail to give way and hit someone's car, you are only issued the same "failure to give way" fine of $390 and you don't get any extra panelty for hitting someone's car. If you're poor and can't pay for insurance you get off free because we have very high judgment/sheriff enforcement costs. Even in cases where people KILL people through negligent driving, as long as there's no alcohol, speeding or intoxication at stake, there's no jail sentence.
...
In the U.S., speeding is enforced much less harshly - in fact some states still happily allow radar jammers - but if you get in an accident and cause injury or death, the judicial punishment/fine is much greater.

This isn't true about the USA. A momentary loss of concentration does not amount to criminal negligence, so unless you are driving recklessly or drunkenly you will also get away with a fine from the US criminal justice system. You will however, most likely, face civil penalties (money, not jail time).
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 28, 2020, 07:47:30 PM
One that seems strange to me is jaywalking.  In England I have the right to pass and repass along the Queen's highway as I like as long as I am not obstructing traffic.  The idea that someone should restrict my right to walk along or across the road wherever I like is odd.  That they should do so in the "land of the free" is even odder.  "Jaywalking" doesn't even have an equivalent word in English English, let alone being a criminal offence.
That's exactly the type of thing I'm talking about. A completely different example is elections. Our politicians can call elections within certain boundaries (they are only elected for a certain number of years, so the election must be held before that time period is up...), but in the US a number of elections (maybe all) are held on prescribed dates.

I was visiting all the great lakes while I was in Canada, and I realised that one of them (Lake Michigan?) was totally in the US. I figured I could cross into the US (I had a visa), drive down to Lake Michigan, have lunch at a nice spot by the lake, and come back into Canada to continue my perambulations. The guy at the border had to have an address that I was staying at in the US to fill out his paperwork. The fact that I was booked into the Canadian border town that night wasn't good enough.

Given the amount of cross-border day shopping that happens, I am surprised the border agent gave you hassles.  I know people who live on the Canadian side of the St. Laurence and have a post box on the American side for online shopping delivery.  They are on the American side for maybe an hour?  Of course you being Australian may have made them suspicious that you were trying to sneak in under cover of a day trip.  /s
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on November 29, 2020, 07:46:36 AM
Obviously you’re not happy with the status quo. Freedom is a risk as well as a reward. So, why not exercise your right to vote with your feet? There are states that are comparatively “woke” and others that aren’t interested. Move to the environment that suits you and everyone is happy.

More woke than Oregon? Or do you mean a different nation state? Because I plan to do that as soon as I have milked nine more years of west-coast tech salary.

Good question.  Either a US state or foreign state.   The US offers a lot of different places and mindsets, but does have unifying themes and cultural norms that some people don't like.

I think it foolish to stay in a place where you're not happy or living to your potential if you have the ability to leave.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Cranky on November 29, 2020, 12:18:23 PM
One that seems strange to me is jaywalking.  In England I have the right to pass and repass along the Queen's highway as I like as long as I am not obstructing traffic.  The idea that someone should restrict my right to walk along or across the road wherever I like is odd.  That they should do so in the "land of the free" is even odder.  "Jaywalking" doesn't even have an equivalent word in English English, let alone being a criminal offence.

So in England you can just walk out into traffic and everyone stops?
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: deborah on November 29, 2020, 12:50:20 PM
One that seems strange to me is jaywalking.  In England I have the right to pass and repass along the Queen's highway as I like as long as I am not obstructing traffic.  The idea that someone should restrict my right to walk along or across the road wherever I like is odd.  That they should do so in the "land of the free" is even odder.  "Jaywalking" doesn't even have an equivalent word in English English, let alone being a criminal offence.

So in England you can just walk out into traffic and everyone stops?
That's what happens in Iqaluit! However, in Australia, and England it isn't a crime if you do it. And, in Australia, if you get run over, it is the driver's fault.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: former player on November 29, 2020, 01:27:14 PM
One that seems strange to me is jaywalking.  In England I have the right to pass and repass along the Queen's highway as I like as long as I am not obstructing traffic.  The idea that someone should restrict my right to walk along or across the road wherever I like is odd.  That they should do so in the "land of the free" is even odder.  "Jaywalking" doesn't even have an equivalent word in English English, let alone being a criminal offence.

So in England you can just walk out into traffic and everyone stops?
Yes.

Although it is wise to ensure that the driver can see you and the car isn't going too fast to stop.

(If you are being a turd about it you may get a blast of a car horn and a rude gesture to go with it.  But being English our natural good manners usually mean this isn't necessary.)
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 29, 2020, 05:08:58 PM
One that seems strange to me is jaywalking.  In England I have the right to pass and repass along the Queen's highway as I like as long as I am not obstructing traffic.  The idea that someone should restrict my right to walk along or across the road wherever I like is odd.  That they should do so in the "land of the free" is even odder.  "Jaywalking" doesn't even have an equivalent word in English English, let alone being a criminal offence.

So in England you can just walk out into traffic and everyone stops?

In Ontario if you do that at a crosswalk every one stops.  When I as a kid in Quebec there were times crossing in the middle of the block was safer than crossing at the intersection, so we jaywalked like mad.  But I thought Ontarioans were suicidal to trust cars to stop at crosswalks.   ;-)
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Cranky on November 30, 2020, 10:42:54 AM
Hey, I was impressed when we moved to Pittsburgh and cars generally stopped at red lights! Before that we lived in Miami where people had a more laissez faire approach to traffic laws.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: ender on November 30, 2020, 11:14:26 AM
Hey, I was impressed when we moved to Pittsburgh and cars generally stopped at red lights! Before that we lived in Miami where people had a more laissez faire approach to traffic laws.

No kidding.

I live in the Midwest but our family has often gone to FL for vacations. In the midwest I can probably count on one hand the number of people I have seen who blatantly run red lights.

In FL, it's basically all the damn time.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: partgypsy on November 30, 2020, 12:38:29 PM
Sometimes I wonder if the right answer would have been to mandate absolutely nothing, let 2-3 million die and be done with it. Sure we would have had to prop up the life insurance industry and get Costco in the coffin business, but that's small potatoes compared to what's going on now.

Of course we'll never know.

Sorry what was the question?

Oh yes, strict lockdowns and martial law. Never gonna happen.
Costco is already in the casket business. I actually used a different company bc they can ship in 2 days. The bottleneck is not coffins but even for cremation a funeral home needs to accept the body to dispose of according to wishes. There might be exceptions say if you live on family farm and bury, but doesn't apply to most. Another bottleneck are healthcare staff esp respiratory techs and other qualified folks for these covid wards.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: jrhampt on November 30, 2020, 12:51:09 PM
Sometimes I wonder if the right answer would have been to mandate absolutely nothing, let 2-3 million die and be done with it. Sure we would have had to prop up the life insurance industry and get Costco in the coffin business, but that's small potatoes compared to what's going on now.

Of course we'll never know.

Sorry what was the question?

Oh yes, strict lockdowns and martial law. Never gonna happen.
Costco is already in the casket business. I actually used a different company bc they can ship in 2 days. The bottleneck is not coffins but even for cremation a funeral home needs to accept the body to dispose of according to wishes. There might be exceptions say if you live on family farm and bury, but doesn't apply to most. Another bottleneck are healthcare staff esp respiratory techs and other qualified folks for these covid wards.

Yep, and then you have some crematoriums breaking down from overuse as in NYC and more recently El Paso.
Title: Re: Chances of covid-related martial law lockdown in the USA by Xmas?
Post by: Cranky on November 30, 2020, 02:44:04 PM
Hey, I was impressed when we moved to Pittsburgh and cars generally stopped at red lights! Before that we lived in Miami where people had a more laissez faire approach to traffic laws.

No kidding.

I live in the Midwest but our family has often gone to FL for vacations. In the midwest I can probably count on one hand the number of people I have seen who blatantly run red lights.

In FL, it's basically all the damn time.

People used to honk at us because we stopped at a light. LOL