What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation

[the_gastropod]

Probably mostly preaching to the choir at this point, as the enthusiasm has gone silent. But for anyone still on the fence, I found this to be a remarkably well done (if long) video explaining the problems with crypto: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ_xWvX1n9g

[EvenSteven]

Probably mostly preaching to the choir at this point, as the enthusiasm has gone silent. But for anyone still on the fence, I found this to be a remarkably well done (if long) video explaining the problems with crypto: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ_xWvX1n9g

Ha! I just watched that and came here to drop a link.

[Blender Bender]

Probably mostly preaching to the choir at this point, as the enthusiasm has gone silent. But for anyone still on the fence, I found this to be a remarkably well done (if long) video explaining the problems with crypto: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ_xWvX1n9g

Wow! A nice resource. Even worse scams than i have imagined!  I learned, in the video, a lot about the NFTs current landscape. Thanks a lot!

I'm a SW Engineer. Years ago I studied BTC, and especially blockchain protocols (to be potentially hired for some side chains implementations). It was apparent quite early to me that it is "no go" for many reasons. So I stayed away.

---

Funny thing. A year ago, during the NFT mania, there was a program on a respectable radio station (CBC), where the host invited an NFT expert to explain how cool and promise of golden future the NFTs have. The expert started: "NFTs are so cool, and are the future, but complicated. Two weeks ago I did not know what blockchain is...".

And these people are telling (us) that we don't get it, don't understand it. Funny.

[onecoolcat]

I am even more excited for Bitcoin now than i was in 2017.  Bear markets are where I make the best financial decisions because that is when I buy.  That said, we have a lot more red candles in store before I start buying because I have a good idea of where this is headed eventually.  I don't even if this is the real bear yet, or just another instance of what we had 6 months ago.  I think the bull is tired but I thought it was tired 6 months ago as well and i was proven wrong then.

I've consistently said that an extended downturn was coming, that this cycle is no different, and that I was concerned for the people going all in on Alts because I predicted they would get rekted when the bear starts.  I've seen it happen before.  Anyways, I will start buying when Bitcoin is down 65% from its highs and I think it will probably go as low as 75%.  If it doesn't go that low; it doesn't happen, but I think it will.  As last time, I am confident that it will rebound.  But, if it doesn't, I never put in more than 5% salary into it on any given year.  It's worked out for me fabulously so far so heres to a repeat of 2018-2020!

[Blender Bender]

@onecoolcat

How you can be more excited now than in 2017, when all the "promises" for BTC been proven wrong, one after another:
1. As a currency (superior to fiat USD).
2. As an inflation hedge (against legacy fiat).
3. As AA not correlated to the market.
4. As a store of value?
5. As an amazing tech changing our lives.

I guess new promises will be invented?

It looks to me that you are just a gambler, gambling. That could be fair. But just admit it, it would be easier to communicate.

But not for me, the gambling supports the rotten BTC ecosystem, polluting our planet. The gambling is a hope to get rich at the expense of other fellow beings and our Mother Earth.

[LateStarter]

Still enthusiastic about the long term prospects for BTC here.

BTC has not been proven wrong - it has not been proven right or wrong YET. I'll reconsider if it's not become more established as a store of value / more widely adopted / still rattling around <$100k in 2025-7, but not before. I'm in no hurry, things take time. I'm happy to wait and watch, and see how things develop.

[LateStarter]

Still enthusiastic about the long term prospects for BTC here.

BTC has not been proven wrong - it has not been proven right or wrong YET. I'll reconsider if it's not become more established as a store of value / more widely adopted / still rattling around <$100k in 2025-7, but not before. I'm in no hurry, things take time. I'm happy to wait and watch, and see how things develop.

Tulips haven't been proven right or wrong YET either. People still plant them. And buy them. It's fucking insane to make posts like this see above.

Maybe if it actually stored the energy it consumed. It has no utility. It's only as valuable as the next guy is willing to pay you for it. You just bought art or a beanie baby if you can't see that you're not looking at how the world actually operates.

You're still comparing it to fucking dollars in your post. Further proving my points.

You've repeatedly emphasised ad nauseum that BTC only has a 13yr history. Yet it's "fucking insane" when I make the same point (that's it's still early days) ?

I compare it it to dollars as that's the current convention. Feel free to convert to gold or pork-bellies or CNY, etc. if you prefer. It doesn't make any difference.

I get it that you don't see any BTC utility. Others have a different view, and are actively using it for various purposes. The current broad trend is for wider adoption among a wider population that find it useful, but only time will tell.

[DaTrill]

The correct allocation when asset risk is included in any MPT portfolio is 0%.  All accounts will eventually reflect this, either by not ever buying the digital collectable or letting the positions ride down to $0. 

I actually appreciate the cryptos were around during all these financial experiments (bond buying QE, direct checks, rent/loan moratorium) as it gave stupid/greedy people something to waste their money on rather than dumping it in ZM, ARK, PTON, creating more losses in the market. 

One can replace "socialism" with "crypto" and the sentences all sound and will end the same way, a few corrupt parties will make a ton, leave their respective countries, find a more corrupt sunny place for shady people and live a life of luxury.  Everyone else will be left waiting in line for panty hose and toilet paper.  If you are a HODLer and haven't picked out your villa yet, you're in the latter group and should find a retailer that will take crypto for toilet paper.       

[vand]

Haven't read any of the rest of the thread, but crypto and blockchain technology has been around for well over a decade now and despite all the hype and bullshit, there hasn't yet been anyone who's acutally come up with a demonstrably useful application of it that some existing tech couldn't have done just as well if not better.

Emperor's new clothes.

[Blender Bender]

OK. Here is another "crypto argument" buster.

Over the time i have had a few exchanges with crypto holders. At the end they just used argument "you are just envy that you did not get in earlier".
So, now it is >50% down. And even Tom Lee (I still like the guy) expects 200k for 2022. So, now would be a very good time to get in.

And i don't get in. So, they were wrong that i was jealous. On the second thought if goes like -10K, even -1K i might consider. But on third thought no, I cannot support this crap.

[LateStarter]

Still enthusiastic about the long term prospects for BTC here.

BTC has not been proven wrong - it has not been proven right or wrong YET. I'll reconsider if it's not become more established as a store of value / more widely adopted / still rattling around <$100k in 2025-7, but not before. I'm in no hurry, things take time. I'm happy to wait and watch, and see how things develop.

Tulips haven't been proven right or wrong YET either. People still plant them. And buy them. It's fucking insane to make posts like this see above.

Maybe if it actually stored the energy it consumed. It has no utility. It's only as valuable as the next guy is willing to pay you for it. You just bought art or a beanie baby if you can't see that you're not looking at how the world actually operates.

You're still comparing it to fucking dollars in your post. Further proving my points.

You've repeatedly emphasised ad nauseum that BTC only has a 13yr history. Yet it's "fucking insane" when I make the same point (that's it's still early days) ?

I compare it it to dollars as that's the current convention. Feel free to convert to gold or pork-bellies or CNY, etc. if you prefer. It doesn't make any difference.

I get it that you don't see any BTC utility. Others have a different view, and are actively using it for various purposes. The current broad trend is for wider adoption among a wider population that find it useful, but only time will tell.

Really wtf are you actively using it to do?

And what is the broad trend that's happening for those who find it useful and again what in the hell is it being USED for

As previously discussed, my primary interest in BTC is as a store of value, an asset. It's not a very good SOV right now but my expectation is that volatility will reduce over time as adoption widens - and at a much higher level. So, in the shorter term, it's also speculative.

Others are are using it as a regular medium of exchange and to send money home, etc. - mostly in developing countries, esp. those with high inflation / weak currencies.

You can argue that this is all misguided but it's false to say that BTC doesn't have utility. Many find it useful and are choosing to use it.
The broad trend is increasing adoption = increasing utility = increasing value.

I'm not here claiming that BTC is definitely the future or that it's the best thing ever. However, I am opposing the concrete assertions that it's absolutely definitely all a worthless waste of time, energy and money. I just don't see the justification for such certainty at this stage of the game. Predicting the future is notoriously difficult.

[Blender Bender]

Hi @LateStarter
By adoption you mean some institutions just feeling FOMO that others making $, pardon the lang, on fools? These institution only "adopt" to make money on the suckers. They are not committing themselves (ignoring things like COIN, SQUARE, BLOCK, these are more sophisticated in the game of screwing others, garbing as much $ as possible from the mob). Or you mean San Salvador, healthy economy matching Swiss?
:)

[Blender Bender]

Trying to self answer since have not gotten much of responses to these important items.
Based on this thread and "other places".

Cryptos/blockchain values:

1. As a currency (superior to fiat USD).
Aka utility. There is i think already a wide consensus that this not happening. Almost no-one claims (anymore) in the last year that crypto's feature is utility.

2. As an inflation hedge (against legacy fiat).
Proven recently that it is not true.

3. As AA not correlated to the market.
Proven recently that it is not true.

4. As a store of value?
This item is often mentioned. If something has (intrinsic) value, then why in the last few weeks the value halfed? Is any logical reason why? Nope, just a sentiment. What kind of value it is?
So, this cannot be considered as stored value.

5. As an amazing tech changing our lives.
Blockchain/crypto is already over 10y old, and no (really) useful application was born. Give it another 10y? 

6. Killing the planet for absolutely nothing back.
If e.g. someone invents effective food production that is not killing the planet, but uses a lot if electricity that would be fine with me.

All left is pure speculation. Cult like behaviours, religion, pump and dump etc. Fuelled by the mob greed.
If desired i could try to expand more the reasons for 1-6, if needed.

Sorry, i felt for a long time to give my voice on this.

[maisymouser]

Trying to self answer since have not gotten much of responses to these important items.
Based on this thread and "other places".

Cryptos/blockchain values:

1. As a currency (superior to fiat USD).
Aka utility. There is i think already a wide consensus that this not happening. Almost no-one claims (anymore) in the last year that crypto's feature is utility.

2. As an inflation hedge (against legacy fiat).
Proven recently that it is not true.

3. As AA not correlated to the market.
Proven recently that it is not true.

4. As a store of value?
This item is often mentioned. If something has (intrinsic) value, then why in the last few weeks the value halfed? Is any logical reason why? Nope, just a sentiment. What kind of value it is?
So, this cannot be considered as stored value.

5. As an amazing tech changing our lives.
Blockchain/crypto is already over 10y old, and no (really) useful application was born. Give it another 10y? 

6. Killing the planet for absolutely nothing back.
If e.g. someone invents effective food production that is not killing the planet, but uses a lot if electricity that would be fine with me.

All left is pure speculation. Cult like behaviours, religion, pump and dump etc. Fuelled by the mob greed.
If desired i could try to expand more the reasons for 1-6, if needed.

Sorry, i felt for a long time to give my voice on this.

Don't be sorry. That seems like a pretty apt summary to me.

[talltexan]

I'll own that I've been building positions in crypto- (although they're probably smaller than they would be if I had not read the anti-crypto arguments in this thread).

And, dang, this period has been tough. Bear markets of this sort are what you sign on for when you participate. I banked a lot of gains during the run-up in early 2021, but this is really cutting into those.

[vand]

I'm introducing a new meme:

HOFDL = Hold On For Dear Life

[ChpBstrd]

Trying to self answer since have not gotten much of responses to these important items.
Based on this thread and "other places".

Cryptos/blockchain values:

1. As a currency (superior to fiat USD).
Aka utility. There is i think already a wide consensus that this not happening. Almost no-one claims (anymore) in the last year that crypto's feature is utility.

2. As an inflation hedge (against legacy fiat).
Proven recently that it is not true.

3. As AA not correlated to the market.
Proven recently that it is not true.

4. As a store of value?
This item is often mentioned. If something has (intrinsic) value, then why in the last few weeks the value halfed? Is any logical reason why? Nope, just a sentiment. What kind of value it is?
So, this cannot be considered as stored value.

5. As an amazing tech changing our lives.
Blockchain/crypto is already over 10y old, and no (really) useful application was born. Give it another 10y? 

6. Killing the planet for absolutely nothing back.
If e.g. someone invents effective food production that is not killing the planet, but uses a lot if electricity that would be fine with me.

All left is pure speculation. Cult like behaviours, religion, pump and dump etc. Fuelled by the mob greed.
If desired i could try to expand more the reasons for 1-6, if needed.

Sorry, i felt for a long time to give my voice on this.

Don't be sorry. That seems like a pretty apt summary to me.

At some point, when an idea has been so thoroughly debunked that there's no saving people from themselves, the challenge becomes to package the refutations into as small and concise sentences as possible. This post is a contender for the parsimony award.

[4tify]

I decided to add a low crypto allocation at the end of last year. Lol. Guess I’ll be sticking with vtsax!

[erjkism]

I am even more excited for Bitcoin now than i was in 2017.  Bear markets are where I make the best financial decisions because that is when I buy.  That said, we have a lot more red candles in store before I start buying because I have a good idea of where this is headed eventually.  I don't even if this is the real bear yet, or just another instance of what we had 6 months ago.  I think the bull is tired but I thought it was tired 6 months ago as well and i was proven wrong then.

I've consistently said that an extended downturn was coming, that this cycle is no different, and that I was concerned for the people going all in on Alts because I predicted they would get rekted when the bear starts.  I've seen it happen before.  Anyways, I will start buying when Bitcoin is down 65% from its highs and I think it will probably go as low as 75%.  If it doesn't go that low; it doesn't happen, but I think it will.  As last time, I am confident that it will rebound.  But, if it doesn't, I never put in more than 5% salary into it on any given year.  It's worked out for me fabulously so far so heres to a repeat of 2018-2020!

I bought lottery tickets at the gas station for 2 years and it's worked out so I'm going to keep doing it.

Great strategy. And good use of those green soldiers you work so hard for.

Honestly can't wait til you all lose your shirts on this. It's not a solution for anything and is terrible for the environment.

This crash/bear market (like the 5th now at least?) we are entering is going to give no-coiners another chance to buy low, yet they are too stubborn and will miss out again and continue to complain. 

[GuitarStv]

I am even more excited for Bitcoin now than i was in 2017.  Bear markets are where I make the best financial decisions because that is when I buy.  That said, we have a lot more red candles in store before I start buying because I have a good idea of where this is headed eventually.  I don't even if this is the real bear yet, or just another instance of what we had 6 months ago.  I think the bull is tired but I thought it was tired 6 months ago as well and i was proven wrong then.

I've consistently said that an extended downturn was coming, that this cycle is no different, and that I was concerned for the people going all in on Alts because I predicted they would get rekted when the bear starts.  I've seen it happen before.  Anyways, I will start buying when Bitcoin is down 65% from its highs and I think it will probably go as low as 75%.  If it doesn't go that low; it doesn't happen, but I think it will.  As last time, I am confident that it will rebound.  But, if it doesn't, I never put in more than 5% salary into it on any given year.  It's worked out for me fabulously so far so heres to a repeat of 2018-2020!

I bought lottery tickets at the gas station for 2 years and it's worked out so I'm going to keep doing it.

Great strategy. And good use of those green soldiers you work so hard for.

Honestly can't wait til you all lose your shirts on this. It's not a solution for anything and is terrible for the environment.

This crash/bear market (like the 5th now at least?) we are entering is going to give nocoiners have another chance to buy low, yet they are too stubborn and will miss out again and continue to complain.

There's also a chance to buy tulips and beanie babies low right now.  I'm too stubborn and will likely miss out on them again too.  Somehow life manages to go on.

[waltworks]

Complain about what? I'm freaking FI because I didn't go for any of the various sure-thing get rich quick crap over the years. I know an awful lot of crypto enthusiasts still working their day jobs...

-W

[talltexan]

Suppose I own $2,000 in crypto, but I have $50,000 in $VTI. Over the last 24 hours, I'm down $500 on the crypto, and I'm down $1,500 on the VTI. Are we more accepting of the latter because of the 90+year track record of stocks making money?

[Psychstache]

Suppose I own $2,000 in crypto, but I have $50,000 in $VTI. Over the last 24 hours, I'm down $500 on the crypto, and I'm down $1,500 on the VTI. Are we more accepting of the latter because of the 90+year track record of stocks making money?

Aren't we more accepting of a 3% drop than a 25% drop?

[Blender Bender]

Suppose I own $2,000 in crypto, but I have $50,000 in $VTI. Over the last 24 hours, I'm down $500 on the crypto, and I'm down $1,500 on the VTI. Are we more accepting of the latter because of the 90+year track record of stocks making money?

No value to go up is called a faith.
Value going up is called a hope.

[BeanCounter]

Suppose I own $2,000 in crypto, but I have $50,000 in $VTI. Over the last 24 hours, I'm down $500 on the crypto, and I'm down $1,500 on the VTI. Are we more accepting of the latter because of the 90+year track record of stocks making money?

Aren't we more accepting of a 3% drop than a 25% drop?

Exactly. I’ve been chuckling along at this thread for awhile but that on takes the cake.

[waltworks]

Suppose I own $2,000 in crypto, but I have $50,000 in $VTI. Over the last 24 hours, I'm down $500 on the crypto, and I'm down $1,500 on the VTI. Are we more accepting of the latter because of the 90+year track record of stocks making money?

No, I'm more accepting because the stocks are at least *mostly* companies that provide actual goods/services that create value even if the stock price drops. Obviously there are some crappy companies out there, but mostly they are worth *something* even if their stock price goes to zero. I can hold on and collect dividends/make a return regardless of what other investors think.

Not so much with BTC.

-W

[erjkism]

I am even more excited for Bitcoin now than i was in 2017.  Bear markets are where I make the best financial decisions because that is when I buy.  That said, we have a lot more red candles in store before I start buying because I have a good idea of where this is headed eventually.  I don't even if this is the real bear yet, or just another instance of what we had 6 months ago.  I think the bull is tired but I thought it was tired 6 months ago as well and i was proven wrong then.

I've consistently said that an extended downturn was coming, that this cycle is no different, and that I was concerned for the people going all in on Alts because I predicted they would get rekted when the bear starts.  I've seen it happen before.  Anyways, I will start buying when Bitcoin is down 65% from its highs and I think it will probably go as low as 75%.  If it doesn't go that low; it doesn't happen, but I think it will.  As last time, I am confident that it will rebound.  But, if it doesn't, I never put in more than 5% salary into it on any given year.  It's worked out for me fabulously so far so heres to a repeat of 2018-2020!

I bought lottery tickets at the gas station for 2 years and it's worked out so I'm going to keep doing it.

Great strategy. And good use of those green soldiers you work so hard for.

Honestly can't wait til you all lose your shirts on this. It's not a solution for anything and is terrible for the environment.

This crash/bear market (like the 5th now at least?) we are entering is going to give nocoiners have another chance to buy low, yet they are too stubborn and will miss out again and continue to complain.

There's also a chance to buy tulips and beanie babies low right now.  I'm too stubborn and will likely miss out on them again too.  Somehow life manages to go on.

Yes because billionaires, investment firms, nation states, etc. were also buying into beanie babies and tulips. Enjoy missing out again.

[waltworks]

Actually the 1600s equivalents of billionaires and hedge funds were definitely involved in the Tulip mania. Likewise the 2007 housing crash. Rich investors are just as dumb as everyone else when it comes right down to it.

-W

[erjkism]

Complain about what? I'm freaking FI because I didn't go for any of the various sure-thing get rich quick crap over the years. I know an awful lot of crypto enthusiasts still working their day jobs...

-W

Sorry I didn't mean to say you specifically were complaining about it. In my personal life it just seems like the people who never bought crypto complain about the wealth other people have made from it. These people seem to just have a lot of resentment and want the entire crypto market to collapse so they don't feel dumb/jealous.

And tulip buying was not nearly as widespread as cryptocurrency is today. I don't think the two are really comparable at this point. They psychological similarities might hold true to bitcoin in the early days or newer cryptocurrencies, but the industry has advanced a lot. 

per wikipedia on tulip mania: While Mackay's account held that a wide array of society was involved in the tulip trade, Goldgar's study of archived contracts found that even at its peak the trade in tulips was conducted almost exclusively by merchants and skilled craftsmen who were wealthy, but not members of the nobility.[58] Any economic fallout from the bubble was very limited. Goldgar, who identified many prominent buyers and sellers in the market, found fewer than half a dozen who experienced financial troubles in the time period, and even of these cases it is not clear that tulips were to blame

[solon]

Complain about what? I'm freaking FI because I didn't go for any of the various sure-thing get rich quick crap over the years. I know an awful lot of crypto enthusiasts still working their day jobs...

-W

Sorry I didn't mean to say you specifically were complaining about it. In my personal life it just seems like the people who never bought crypto complain about the wealth other people have made from it. These people seem to just have a lot of resentment and want the entire crypto market to collapse so they don't feel dumb/jealous.

And tulip buying was not nearly as widespread as cryptocurrency is today. I don't think the two are really comparable at this point. They psychological similarities might hold true to bitcoin in the early days or newer cryptocurrencies, but the industry has advanced a lot. 

per wikipedia on tulip mania: While Mackay's account held that a wide array of society was involved in the tulip trade, Goldgar's study of archived contracts found that even at its peak the trade in tulips was conducted almost exclusively by merchants and skilled craftsmen who were wealthy, but not members of the nobility.[58] Any economic fallout from the bubble was very limited. Goldgar, who identified many prominent buyers and sellers in the market, found fewer than half a dozen who experienced financial troubles in the time period, and even of these cases it is not clear that tulips were to blame

This is really weird. People with wealth are definitely not complaining about the "wealth" of crypto traders. We pity them because they have no wealth. That's why we lump them in the same category as tulip traders.

[GuitarStv]

Complain about what? I'm freaking FI because I didn't go for any of the various sure-thing get rich quick crap over the years. I know an awful lot of crypto enthusiasts still working their day jobs...

-W

Sorry I didn't mean to say you specifically were complaining about it. In my personal life it just seems like the people who never bought crypto complain about the wealth other people have made from it. These people seem to just have a lot of resentment and want the entire crypto market to collapse so they don't feel dumb/jealous.

And tulip buying was not nearly as widespread as cryptocurrency is today. I don't think the two are really comparable at this point. They psychological similarities might hold true to bitcoin in the early days or newer cryptocurrencies, but the industry has advanced a lot. 

per wikipedia on tulip mania: While Mackay's account held that a wide array of society was involved in the tulip trade, Goldgar's study of archived contracts found that even at its peak the trade in tulips was conducted almost exclusively by merchants and skilled craftsmen who were wealthy, but not members of the nobility.[58] Any economic fallout from the bubble was very limited. Goldgar, who identified many prominent buyers and sellers in the market, found fewer than half a dozen who experienced financial troubles in the time period, and even of these cases it is not clear that tulips were to blame

This is really weird. People with wealth are definitely not complaining about the "wealth" of crypto traders. We pity them because they have no wealth. That's why we lump them in the same category as tulip traders.

Yeah, really weird way to see things.  I don't care how you make your wealth.

There are people out there who were able to sell their bottled farts and make 50k a year.  More power to 'em.  But I'm going to take every chance to point out that the emperor has no clothes . . . and that failing to bottle your own farts for sale is not likely to lose you much in the long run.

[Blender Bender]

@erjkism You might be referring to me too.

In my personal life it just seems like the people who never bought crypto complain about the wealth other people have made from it. These people seem to just have a lot of resentment and want the entire crypto market to collapse so they don't feel dumb/jealous.

Well, I still have active income, FI @2.5% (at least before the drop, have not checked the balance for a week or so, no reason :)). Holding only quality index ETFs.
I mentioned yesterday that if i would be jealous i would buy crypto on this drop (would be good entry point, right?), gave my reason why not.

Believe me, more weird is for the crypto holders (no value) to HODL, than no crypto guys not buying crypto. Non crypto guys just want to help you (not resent you), and save the planet.

[Blender Bender]

The answer is: nothing.

https://apple.news/ArpcXReo8Sk6bskfV6FEjNA

[Telecaster]

Sorry I didn't mean to say you specifically were complaining about it. In my personal life it just seems like the people who never bought crypto complain about the wealth other people have made from it. These people seem to just have a lot of resentment and want the entire crypto market to collapse so they don't feel dumb/jealous.

And tulip buying was not nearly as widespread as cryptocurrency is today. I don't think the two are really comparable at this point. They psychological similarities might hold true to bitcoin in the early days or newer cryptocurrencies, but the industry has advanced a lot. 

per wikipedia on tulip mania: While Mackay's account held that a wide array of society was involved in the tulip trade, Goldgar's study of archived contracts found that even at its peak the trade in tulips was conducted almost exclusively by merchants and skilled craftsmen who were wealthy, but not members of the nobility.[58] Any economic fallout from the bubble was very limited. Goldgar, who identified many prominent buyers and sellers in the market, found fewer than half a dozen who experienced financial troubles in the time period, and even of these cases it is not clear that tulips were to blame

The Tulip Bulb comment is just a metaphor.   I don't like using that metaphor because it sounds pejorative, and that's not a good way to have a conversation. 

That said, when you boil it down Bitcoin's price is based on the number of people who want to own it.  If more people want to own in the future, the price will go up.  If not, the price will go down. 

So what's the case that more people want to own Bitcoin in the future?  It isn't because it works well for transactions.  It isn't because it is a store of value. 

[talltexan]

Bitcoin Booster: I'm a millionaire because of this incredible stake in Bitcoin I've built.
Me: At today's prices, you are a millionaire, but your crypto stake could easily be worth only $500,000 48 hours from now.
Bitcoin Booster: Why don't you appreciate how smart I was to buy this stuff three years ago?
Me: ???

[LateStarter]

Hi @LateStarter
By adoption you mean some institutions just feeling FOMO that others making $, pardon the lang, on fools? These institution only "adopt" to make money on the suckers. They are not committing themselves (ignoring things like COIN, SQUARE, BLOCK, these are more sophisticated in the game of screwing others, garbing as much $ as possible from the mob). Or you mean San Salvador, healthy economy matching Swiss?
:)

Hi ArnoldK
By 'adoption', I mean wider adoption by all categories - individuals, institutions, states, etc. etc. etc.
Do you have a thorough knowledge of the motives and operations / trades of all these institutions ? Or are you just guessing / assuming ?

The hard fact is that none of us know everything that's going on and none of us know how things will progress. Some of us think it has great potential. Some of us think it's all terrible and is doomed to failure. That's all fine - vive la difference.
Some claim to know that it's all terrible and will definitely fail. As I said, I am challenging that certainty.

[DaTrill]

Is it me or does every crypto zealot sound like the have some kind of persecution complex?  They all seem to repeat "Everyone is against us, we will overcome, drink the Kool-Aide and join us".  Cults always end the same way. 

I only know a few people who dabbled in crypto along with myself in 2016-2017 and never had more than vacation money in this.  Everyone I know has made money, but not one believes this will change anything in the future.  It's also still not a legitimate trading vehicle for anything otherwise there wouldn't be a 33% discount from BTC to GBTC.  One price has to be fake, either one that trades on regulated exchanges or one that trades in 3rd world servers?   

[LateStarter]

Trying to self answer since have not gotten much of responses to these important items.
Based on this thread and "other places".

Cryptos/blockchain values:

1. As a currency (superior to fiat USD).
Aka utility. There is i think already a wide consensus that this not happening. Almost no-one claims (anymore) in the last year that crypto's feature is utility.

2. As an inflation hedge (against legacy fiat).
Proven recently that it is not true.

3. As AA not correlated to the market.
Proven recently that it is not true.

4. As a store of value?
This item is often mentioned. If something has (intrinsic) value, then why in the last few weeks the value halfed? Is any logical reason why? Nope, just a sentiment. What kind of value it is?
So, this cannot be considered as stored value.

5. As an amazing tech changing our lives.
Blockchain/crypto is already over 10y old, and no (really) useful application was born. Give it another 10y? 

6. Killing the planet for absolutely nothing back.
If e.g. someone invents effective food production that is not killing the planet, but uses a lot if electricity that would be fine with me.

All left is pure speculation. Cult like behaviours, religion, pump and dump etc. Fuelled by the mob greed.
If desired i could try to expand more the reasons for 1-6, if needed.

Sorry, i felt for a long time to give my voice on this.

Don't be sorry. That seems like a pretty apt summary to me.

At some point, when an idea has been so thoroughly debunked that there's no saving people from themselves, the challenge becomes to package the refutations into as small and concise sentences as possible. This post is a contender for the parsimony award.

The key word to add to most of these points is YET. Why would you presume to know that it's all done with ?

The game isn't over YET.
My view is that the game is only just beginning.
Most here think it's all over bar the shouting (and should never have started in the first place!).

Either way, it's clearly not finished YET - to the tune of $700billion for BTC. It's premature to think it's all over.

[GuitarStv]

Exactly how I feel about tulips.  I'll admit - there has been a bit of a lull since the 17th century . . . but in the Netherlands alone, 220 million euros of tulips were exported in 2020.  That's a LOT MORE euros (100% by my math) than were spent during the HEIGHT of tulip mania!

The game isn't over YET.
It's only just the beginning.
Don't prematurely judge tulips as down and out.


We've only started to scratch the potential of flower chain technologies:



#HODL HORTICULTURE 4EVA

[beee]

to the tune of $700billion for BTC

Could you please correct me if I am wrong?
As I understand, the market cap is calculated based on the current price only.
So
there're 100 coins of currency A
current price is $1/coin, market cap $100
99 coins are traded $1/coin
then price changes to $1,000/coin, but only 1 coin is traded
but the market cap is now $100,000, even though $100k were not used ever in trading of currency A

Am I right?

[talltexan]

I suppose you're correct, but a market has bid/asks, so that trade at $1,000 meant that there were people offering $995/coin who couldn't find a seller.

[index]

to the tune of $700billion for BTC

Could you please correct me if I am wrong?
As I understand, the market cap is calculated based on the current price only.
So
there're 100 coins of currency A
current price is $1/coin, market cap $100
99 coins are traded $1/coin
then price changes to $1,000/coin, but only 1 coin is traded
but the market cap is now $100,000, even though $100k were not used ever in trading of currency A

Am I right?

Yes that is right. That is how the market cap of stocks are calculated as well. Current price multiplied by shares outstanding.

[Blender Bender]

Hi @LateStarter
By adoption you mean some institutions just feeling FOMO that others making $, pardon the lang, on fools? These institution only "adopt" to make money on the suckers. They are not committing themselves (ignoring things like COIN, SQUARE, BLOCK, these are more sophisticated in the game of screwing others, garbing as much $ as possible from the mob). Or you mean San Salvador, healthy economy matching Swiss?
:)

Hi ArnoldK
By 'adoption', I mean wider adoption by all categories - individuals, institutions, states, etc. etc. etc.
Do you have a thorough knowledge of the motives and operations / trades of all these institutions ? Or are you just guessing / assuming ?

The hard fact is that none of us know everything that's going on and none of us know how things will progress. Some of us think it has great potential. Some of us think it's all terrible and is doomed to failure. That's all fine - vive la difference.
Some claim to know that it's all terrible and will definitely fail. As I said, I am challenging that certainty.

Hi LateStarter,

Agreed, no-one knows everything. Just to be clear, i have not been saying that this thing will disappear at a specific moment (but i wish since it is bad for the planet not producing anything useful). I was saying that the only reason, at least for the most crypto traders, is a speculation. I consider it as a fact. They are not admitting it directly. I don't see happening that it could be more than that (and i could be wrong).
I do think that "crypto" could be useful. But i would call it crypto 2.0, maybe governments issued, not necessary using blockchain.
So let's assume that 2.0 comes, and is successful/usefull. What would happened to BTC, dog coins etc? I think that the gamblers expect some kind of conversion to happen. One doge to one AmericaCoin 2.0? Why not, it has a value, right?

About adoption:
Yes, there are more casinos (aka companies "doing" crypto) popping up since there is more gamblers (it always will go up mentality). Still, sure it would be OK with me if a harmless play. But the cost of the gambling is very bad for everyone (killing the planet), there is a typical social cost like normal gambling has, and there is major risk for the whole economy when the thing pops up. I would really hate that the gamblers are rescued by "feds" at everyones cost, when becomes "too big to fail". Plus, imagine what would happen if the enormous $, engineering, marketing would be spent instead on something useful for the society. It is one big waste, a radioactive waste that will hurt for a long time. 

[LateStarter]

Hi @LateStarter
By adoption you mean some institutions just feeling FOMO that others making $, pardon the lang, on fools? These institution only "adopt" to make money on the suckers. They are not committing themselves (ignoring things like COIN, SQUARE, BLOCK, these are more sophisticated in the game of screwing others, garbing as much $ as possible from the mob). Or you mean San Salvador, healthy economy matching Swiss?
:)

Hi ArnoldK
By 'adoption', I mean wider adoption by all categories - individuals, institutions, states, etc. etc. etc.
Do you have a thorough knowledge of the motives and operations / trades of all these institutions ? Or are you just guessing / assuming ?

The hard fact is that none of us know everything that's going on and none of us know how things will progress. Some of us think it has great potential. Some of us think it's all terrible and is doomed to failure. That's all fine - vive la difference.
Some claim to know that it's all terrible and will definitely fail. As I said, I am challenging that certainty.

Hi LateStarter,

Agreed, no-one knows everything. Just to be clear, i have not been saying that this thing will disappear at a specific moment (but i wish since it is bad for the planet not producing anything useful). I was saying that the only reason, at least for the most crypto traders, is a speculation. I consider it as a fact. They are not admitting it directly. I don't see happening that it could be more than that (and i could be wrong).

Yes, I guess we just have different opinions. Time will tell.

I do think that "crypto" could be useful. But i would call it crypto 2.0, maybe governments issued, not necessary using blockchain.
So let's assume that 2.0 comes, and is successful/usefull. What would happened to BTC, dog coins etc? I think that the gamblers expect some kind of conversion to happen. One doge to one AmericaCoin 2.0? Why not, it has a value, right?

There's plenty talk about CBDCs - probably will happen in some countries - maybe many. However, CBDC's would just be a different representation of existing currencies, and thus wouldn't have the best features of BTC, ie. decentralised, finite, etc. I don't see CBDCs as much of a threat to BTC.

I have no interest in meme coins. My assumption is that most are fads and will vanish in time.

About adoption:
Yes, there are more casinos (aka companies "doing" crypto) popping up since there is more gamblers (it always will go up mentality). Still, sure it would be OK with me if a harmless play. But the cost of the gambling is very bad for everyone (killing the planet), there is a typical social cost like normal gambling has, and there is major risk for the whole economy when the thing pops up. I would really hate that the gamblers are rescued by "feds" at everyones cost, when becomes "too big to fail".

I don't get the "too big to fail" argument for crypto. Maybe, you're referring to the risk of over-extended banks going bust - if so, that's a banking problem rather than a crypto problem.

My guess is that most governments / central banks would be happy to see Bitcoin fail.

Plus, imagine what would happen if the enormous $, engineering, marketing would be spent instead on something useful for the society. It is one big waste, a radioactive waste that will hurt for a long time.

But I do see BTC as something useful for society, so . . .

[Blender Bender]

Exactly how I feel about tulips.  I'll admit - there has been a bit of a lull since the 17th century . . . but in the Netherlands alone, 220 million euros of tulips were exported in 2020.  That's a LOT MORE euros (100% by my math) than were spent during the HEIGHT of tulip mania!

The game isn't over YET.
It's only just the beginning.
Don't prematurely judge tulips as down and out.


We've only started to scratch the potential of flower chain technologies:



#HODL HORTICULTURE 4EVA

I see. So you think that in future there will be some useful digital currency that will be widely used. Sure, almost 100%.
But what it has to do with the current cryptos?

Did you invest in Palm or BB mobile phone company? Mobile devices succeeded.

If black tulip price was more than a home price back then, what it has to do with 1$ flowers now? Why not compare with parsley? Just a name matching?

Sorry if I didn’t detect sarcasm if intended. 

[Blender Bender]

@LateStarter
I was thinking that BTC is a meme. Now i'm confused. Could you tell me which cryptos from what, now like 5000 cryptos are the "real thing"?
I was thinking that doge coin is the real thing, even a top billionaire supports it (someone used the argument about billionaires). :)

Anyway, regardless of all, good luck to you and your investments!

UPDATE:
Too big too fail i mean the government to avoid possible a social unrests. If millions have crypto as their (only?) wealth, and government / Feds are closing it (one way or another), they might be forced to give some carrot to the poor souls. But other variants of TBTF are also possible.
I think that this is #1 reason feds are not doing much to kill, they just hope that it will softly collapses itself in early stages.

Nothing to do with banks. As i said before, such institutions are not committing to crypto. They just see some gambling $ coming their way, why not be the middle man?
A good example of other adoptions. AMC, failed company, no future for their business. They got some unexpected rain of $. They have not figure out their business model for the future, legacy business. And what they did? We do BTC! The mob started cheering. How pathetic!

But i'm afraid the no logical arguments can make change minds. This is more for human psychology discussion: faith, greed, tendency to avoid hard work etc.

[erjkism]

Complain about what? I'm freaking FI because I didn't go for any of the various sure-thing get rich quick crap over the years. I know an awful lot of crypto enthusiasts still working their day jobs...

-W

Sorry I didn't mean to say you specifically were complaining about it. In my personal life it just seems like the people who never bought crypto complain about the wealth other people have made from it. These people seem to just have a lot of resentment and want the entire crypto market to collapse so they don't feel dumb/jealous.

And tulip buying was not nearly as widespread as cryptocurrency is today. I don't think the two are really comparable at this point. They psychological similarities might hold true to bitcoin in the early days or newer cryptocurrencies, but the industry has advanced a lot. 

per wikipedia on tulip mania: While Mackay's account held that a wide array of society was involved in the tulip trade, Goldgar's study of archived contracts found that even at its peak the trade in tulips was conducted almost exclusively by merchants and skilled craftsmen who were wealthy, but not members of the nobility.[58] Any economic fallout from the bubble was very limited. Goldgar, who identified many prominent buyers and sellers in the market, found fewer than half a dozen who experienced financial troubles in the time period, and even of these cases it is not clear that tulips were to blame

I want it to fail bc it's a waste of resources. I'm FIREd and have no resentment from the wealth being stolen from people who have no idea what investing even is.

I understand that bitcoin has an environmental cost. Whether that is a "waste" depends on who you ask. It has practical uses and is also a "philosophical" coin, a religion basically.

There are other cryptocurrencies that have little to no environmental impact. I just think it is foolish to ignore this sector, it has been a fast path to FIRE for most people I know. Crypto is not going anywhere, buy cheap, take profits along the way, and diversify into index funds.

[erjkism]

Is it me or does every crypto zealot sound like the have some kind of persecution complex?  They all seem to repeat "Everyone is against us, we will overcome, drink the Kool-Aide and join us".  Cults always end the same way. 

I only know a few people who dabbled in crypto along with myself in 2016-2017 and never had more than vacation money in this.  Everyone I know has made money, but not one believes this will change anything in the future.  It's also still not a legitimate trading vehicle for anything otherwise there wouldn't be a 33% discount from BTC to GBTC.  One price has to be fake, either one that trades on regulated exchanges or one that trades in 3rd world servers?   

That's because cryptocurrencies can help persecuted populations. As a jew I don't want my wealth confiscated like has been historically.

[FLBiker]

I just think it is foolish to ignore this sector, it has been a fast path to FIRE for most people I know.

Wow, is that really true?  Most of the people you know have retired early based on wealth the accumulated quickly through crypto?  We clearly travel in different circles, but I don't personally know anyone who has retired based on their crypto earnings, despite knowing at least a few people who invest in crypto.  If that has been your experience, though, I can see why crypto would seem like  a foolish thing to ignore.

[GuitarStv]

Is it me or does every crypto zealot sound like the have some kind of persecution complex?  They all seem to repeat "Everyone is against us, we will overcome, drink the Kool-Aide and join us".  Cults always end the same way. 

I only know a few people who dabbled in crypto along with myself in 2016-2017 and never had more than vacation money in this.  Everyone I know has made money, but not one believes this will change anything in the future.  It's also still not a legitimate trading vehicle for anything otherwise there wouldn't be a 33% discount from BTC to GBTC.  One price has to be fake, either one that trades on regulated exchanges or one that trades in 3rd world servers?   

That's because cryptocurrencies can help persecuted populations. As a jew I don't want my wealth confiscated like has been historically.

Does cryptocurrency really help with this?

It's hard for someone to kick down your door and just steal your crypto sure, but it's not a currency . . . so a population that wants to persecute you could just camp out at the crypto exchanges for when you want to make the crypto usable, couldn't they?

Then you look at all the neo-nazis who have gained wealth from cryptocurrency . . . https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2021/12/09/how-cryptocurrency-revolutionized-white-supremacist-movement.  It seems tricky to say that this is a clear benefit for persecuted populations.