Bull markets don’t die of old age, why Dow 44,000 is coming

[blackjack]

"No matter what you read in financial media, no bull market has ever died of old age. It makes for an interesting data-mining experiment to compare the duration of historic bull markets, but it’s simply not an actionable piece of information.

[MOD EDIT: One or two paragraphs is enough.  Don't copy a whole article in.  Feel free to add your own comments if you want to start a discussion.  Other head over to yahoo and discuss there.]

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/bull-markets-don-t-die-of-old-age--why-dow-44-000-is-coming-193910039.html

[Vilgan]

Dow 44000 is coming seems like total clickbait, but the general premise mirrors my thoughts. Everyone always talks about the next crash and is constantly looking for 2008 to recur without realizing just how rare it is. Once that finally fades and everyone is talking about stocks and investing - then it will be time to get concerned again. The be bold when people are fearful thing is quoted a lot, but it seems like there is enough fear that things can go for a while from here. There might be a small dip in the next year or two before taking off, but general trajectory seems likely to be up for a while barring some crazy event like WW III.

[My Own Advisor]

Dow 44000 is coming via pyramid scheme maybe.

[mrpercentage]

Dow 44000 doesn't depend on growth-- it depends on the dollar. Remove the inflation and you will see it would take a long time to reach. I hope I don't see it too soon. Maybe in my twilight years.

Im an odd bird that thinks we need a different approach and need to kill inflation. Zero up or down would be optimal and a strait forward way to see how well you really are doing without smoke and mirrors.

[sol]

I predict the Dow will hit 44k in 11 years. 

Why 11 years?  Long term US market CAGR is about 9%.  9% steady growth on 17,400 is about 44k after 11 years.  Mark your calendars for December 2026, include a link to this thread, maybe it will still be here when we get there.

[Mighty-Dollar]

That's only 150%. 150% over 11 years is not that overly optimistic.

[arebelspy]

Necro'd post, article above is a decade old.

I predict the Dow will hit 44k in 11 years. 

Why 11 years?  Long term US market CAGR is about 9%.  9% steady growth on 17,400 is about 44k after 11 years.  Mark your calendars for December 2026, include a link to this thread, maybe it will still be here when we get there.

It hit 44k in just under 9 years (Nov 2024), quicker than your 11 year prediction.

(Found the calender alert coming up in a year and a half, and did a quick check.)

[J.P. MoreGains]

Wow amazing to file this away and then pull it back up for reference. Nice work!

[ChpBstrd]

Agreed. It's something powerful to be able to look back at sentiment this long ago. Too bad we don't have a RemindMe! bot like Reddit. Would save the mod some time, lol.

Unfortunately, the original Yahoo article cannot be reached any more. I think there's a message in this observation too: Financial media prognostications are disposable clickbait. Perhaps they had to delete the original because at some point in the past 11 years, they just edited some numbers and recycled most of the article. Wouldn't want to get caught doing that when someone googles it.

[travel2020]

Agreed. It's something powerful to be able to look back at sentiment this long ago. Too bad we don't have a RemindMe! bot like Reddit. Would save the mod some time, lol.

Unfortunately, the original Yahoo article cannot be reached any more. I think there's a message in this observation too: Financial media prognostications are disposable clickbait. Perhaps they had to delete the original because at some point in the past 11 years, they just edited some numbers and recycled most of the article. Wouldn't want to get caught doing that when someone googles it.

Found it in the archive:
https://web.archive.org/web/20140626023333/http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/bull-markets-don-t-die-of-old-age--why-dow-44-000-is-coming-193910039.html

[TheAnonOne]

To be fair, it still could be 44k in dec 2026.

[jrhampt]

To be fair, it still could be 44k in dec 2026.

We can only hope...