The Money Mustache Community

Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: blackjack on December 12, 2015, 07:23:45 PM

Title: Bull markets don’t die of old age, why Dow 44,000 is coming
Post by: blackjack on December 12, 2015, 07:23:45 PM

"No matter what you read in financial media, no bull market has ever died of old age. It makes for an interesting data-mining experiment to compare the duration of historic bull markets, but it’s simply not an actionable piece of information.

[MOD EDIT: One or two paragraphs is enough.  Don't copy a whole article in.  Feel free to add your own comments if you want to start a discussion.  Other head over to yahoo and discuss there.]

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/bull-markets-don-t-die-of-old-age--why-dow-44-000-is-coming-193910039.html

Title: Re: Bull markets don’t die of old age, why Dow 44,000 is coming
Post by: Vilgan on December 12, 2015, 07:35:23 PM

Dow 44000 is coming seems like total clickbait, but the general premise mirrors my thoughts. Everyone always talks about the next crash and is constantly looking for 2008 to recur without realizing just how rare it is. Once that finally fades and everyone is talking about stocks and investing - then it will be time to get concerned again. The be bold when people are fearful thing is quoted a lot, but it seems like there is enough fear that things can go for a while from here. There might be a small dip in the next year or two before taking off, but general trajectory seems likely to be up for a while barring some crazy event like WW III.

Title: Re: Bull markets don’t die of old age, why Dow 44,000 is coming
Post by: My Own Advisor on December 14, 2015, 07:28:36 PM

Dow 44000 is coming via pyramid scheme maybe.

Title: Re: Bull markets don’t die of old age, why Dow 44,000 is coming
Post by: mrpercentage on December 14, 2015, 07:44:36 PM

Dow 44000 doesn't depend on growth-- it depends on the dollar. Remove the inflation and you will see it would take a long time to reach. I hope I don't see it too soon. Maybe in my twilight years.

Im an odd bird that thinks we need a different approach and need to kill inflation. Zero up or down would be optimal and a strait forward way to see how well you really are doing without smoke and mirrors.

Title: Re: Bull markets don’t die of old age, why Dow 44,000 is coming
Post by: sol on December 14, 2015, 08:01:12 PM

I predict the Dow will hit 44k in 11 years. 

Why 11 years?  Long term US market CAGR is about 9%.  9% steady growth on 17,400 is about 44k after 11 years.  Mark your calendars for December 2026, include a link to this thread, maybe it will still be here when we get there.

Title: Re: Bull markets don’t die of old age, why Dow 44,000 is coming
Post by: Mighty-Dollar on December 18, 2015, 02:52:22 AM

That's only 150%. 150% over 11 years is not that overly optimistic.