Spouse wants luxury SUV!

[Radagast]

Maybe some free test drives are in your future, or a couple weekend-long rentals.

The rental is a good suggestion, I'll bring that up. It has been hard to find testers at dealerships.

It might be worth checking turo as well. It won't be free like a test drive, but you'd be able to have the vehicle for more than an hour or two, and you could speak with an unbiased owner rather than a salesperson with skin in the game. I'd consider it an investment in research before you spend $40-70k.

This hasn't worked out well, I have not seen even one of the considered models available on two rental sites or Turo.

[Radagast]

Yeah, just kidding about the HUD. That is my favorite feature, but then I have played a lot of Mechwarrior computer games in years past. They are moving down market though, even a Sienna minivan comes with HUD when fully loaded now.

[Radagast]

Here is the current list, with my estimated 10-year opportunity cost. Forester is just a benchmark. A Pacifica is probably just wishful thinking. And the Volvo XC40 for that matter. And, well, really all but the bottom 4 might be wishful thinking.
 
$118,803    Subaru Forester
 $115,917    Honda CRV Hybrid
 $143,619    Toyota Sienna Hybrid
 $154,478    Volvo XC40 Electric
 $164,107    Chrysler Pacfica
 $170,031    Audi E-Tron Electric
 $180,840    Volvo XC90 Hybrid
 $194,326    BMW X5 Hybrid
 $212,549    Mercedes GLE

If you were wondering about the list, it is the intersection of all vehicles with actual or plausible IIHS top safety picks, and vehicles which get better fuel economy than a 2014 Subaru Forester. Plus a Mercedes GLE, because. And then vehicles unsuitable to spouse were removed.

[JLee]

Here is the current list, with my estimated 10-year opportunity cost. Forester is just a benchmark. A Pacifica is probably just wishful thinking. And the Volvo XC40 for that matter. And, well, really all but the bottom 4 might be wishful thinking.
 
$118,803    Subaru Forester
 $115,917    Honda CRV Hybrid
 $143,619    Toyota Sienna Hybrid
 $154,478    Volvo XC40 Electric
 $164,107    Chrysler Pacfica
 $170,031    Audi E-Tron Electric
 $180,840    Volvo XC90 Hybrid
 $194,326    BMW X5 Hybrid
 $212,549    Mercedes GLE

If you were wondering about the list, it is the intersection of all vehicles with actual or plausible IIHS top safety picks, and vehicles which get better fuel economy than a 2014 Subaru Forester. Plus a Mercedes GLE, because. And then vehicles unsuitable to spouse were removed.

Is that opportunity cost factoring in a cash purchase or financing? DCU.org has 1.49% for 65mo (1.24% for EVs or high efficiency).

[dignam]

OP, have you used the "it's a terrible market to buy a car" excuse with your spouse yet?  At least wait until it cools off (maybe it never will, but the empty car lots around me are starting to fill up again).

With your opportunity cost values, are those assuming new car prices?

I know you were joking about the HUD, but my GF's 4 year old Mazda CX-3 has one ;)

[Just Joe]

I would definitely try to split the difference between a Mercedes SUV and a CRV and go with a Lexus SUV or Acura SUV.  Both are equally luxurious feeling as a Mercedes, but have Honda/Toyota quality and resale value

Yeah, that would be a good compromise. Acura was recently eliminated, the RDX apparently wasn't as nice to drive as a Forester, let alone a real luxury vehicle. Plus the dealership experience was disappointing because it was very cold when we went there, and upon getting in the car to test it the salesperson didn't think to turn on the heated seats or even heater for several minutes.

Lexus is still in the books, but I expect it will not stay there.

Don't rely on your experience with a salesperson shape your choices. They represent a tiny part of the ownership experience. If Acura doesn't work for you, then cool. Our Honda shopping experience was terrible ~21 years ago when we purchased our CRV. I was confident in the brand - and it has paid off - but the salesperson experience was awful at multiple dealerships. Of course I DIY everything so I very seldom step foot in a dealership. Even when I purchase OEM parts I do that online b/c the local dealership marks their parts up to ridiculous levels.

[ToTheMoon]

I know you were joking about the HUD, but my GF's 4 year old Mazda CX-3 has one ;)

Lol, my new-to-me 2014 Mazda 3 also has it.

Best of luck OP, you seem to find yourself in a bit of an impossible predicament at the moment!

[Kris]

Here is the current list, with my estimated 10-year opportunity cost. Forester is just a benchmark. A Pacifica is probably just wishful thinking. And the Volvo XC40 for that matter. And, well, really all but the bottom 4 might be wishful thinking.
 
$118,803    Subaru Forester
 $115,917    Honda CRV Hybrid
 $143,619    Toyota Sienna Hybrid
 $154,478    Volvo XC40 Electric
 $164,107    Chrysler Pacfica
 $170,031    Audi E-Tron Electric
 $180,840    Volvo XC90 Hybrid
 $194,326    BMW X5 Hybrid
 $212,549    Mercedes GLE

If you were wondering about the list, it is the intersection of all vehicles with actual or plausible IIHS top safety picks, and vehicles which get better fuel economy than a 2014 Subaru Forester. Plus a Mercedes GLE, because. And then vehicles unsuitable to spouse were removed.

This is blowing my mind. I cannot imagine justifying any of these!

[zolotiyeruki]

Hey, Radagast, here are a few thoughts, for the two cents they're worth:

1) The new, hybrid-only Siennas are sure to last basically forever.  They're also, IMO, terrible.  DW and I took one for a test drive a few months back.  I really, really wanted it to be amazing, with Toyota's hybrid tech and reliability.  Unfortunately, from what we saw, it's a massive step backwards in practicality, compared to previous generations.  The second row seats are not removable for hauling 4x8 goods.  Well, they *can* be removed, but that requires a socket set and will leave you with an airbag warning light.  The 8th seat (2nd row, center seat) has a cushion so thin and soft that you can feel the seat frame through it. The rear bench seat is awful--the front corners of the bench are cut off in order to allow the seat to fold into the rear cargo floor, and the head rests are supremely uncomfortable.  The ma-HOO-sive center console eliminates nearly all the utility of that precious space between the front seats, the arm rests on the front seats can't be flipped up, and the dash looks like they let the art students design it instead of soccer moms and engineers.  Basically, it's a minivan that tries its best to act like a 4-seat SUV.  Or maybe it's the other way around?
2) Now is a terrible time to car shop.  We're in the market for a new-to-us minivan, and have been, for the last year.  The global chip shortage looks to be loosening its grip over the next 6 months, so that may help your wife delay her gratification just a bit longer.
3) If it's to be brand new, can you rent one of each model you're considering, for a week at a time, to make sure DW gets what she wants?
4) If it has to be a luxury SUV, get a Lexus.

[AccidentialMustache]

Saw an article saying Mercedes is bringing two new EVs this coming year. Clearly she needs to wait to see them. Since it sounds like you keep your cars a good long while, I'd bet a gas Mercedes is going to take a huge hit to prestige (and depreciation) in 10 years compared to an EV.

Having lived with an EV for 5 months now, they're just that much better at being a car than an ICE is. The *only* complaint to have is range/charging access/charging time. I smile every time I cruise past a gas station and don't have to waste 5 minutes dealing with stinky fuel and stinkier pump-screen advertising.

Well that and they are only selling boats (or compliance cars, which are pretty bad) for EVs in the US. I guess technically there's the Kona, but I've never seen one in person, nor found it within 200 miles when we were looking. Even the recent leafs (where they quit being a compliance car) are not small.

[Chris22]

I believe the Kona EV has the same battery fire problem the Bolt has, and is being recalled/stop sales for a while. Probably why you haven’t seen any around.

[Radagast]

This is blowing my mind. I cannot imagine justifying any of these!

Allow me to update the list with the lowest-cost vehicle meeting my criteria (I think, didn't check them all), a base model Honda Insight. Basically a hybrid Civic. See? Many of the rest aren't that bad in comparison. I don't think things get really unreasonable until you get past the Pacifica. Considering how crazy the used market is at the moment, there aren't many budget-friendly vehicles out there unless they are garbage. It is the same as local houses right now: all the price pressure is at the bottom of the market. Although I based my prices on the more expensive trims so realistically they should be a little less (that is the most expensive Honda CRV and Toyota Sienna you can configure, except a few lings like mud flaps).

~10 Year Future Cost   
 $118,803    Subaru Forester
 $97,031      Honda Insight
 $115,917    Honda CRV Hybrid
 $143,619    Toyota Sienna Hybrid
 $154,478    Volvo XC40 Electric
 $164,107    Chrysler Pacifica
 $170,031    Audi E-Tron Electric
 $180,840    Volvo XC90 Hybrid
 $194,326    BMW X5 Hybrid
 $212,549    Mercedes GLE

[Radagast]

Here is the current list, with my estimated 10-year opportunity cost. Forester is just a benchmark. A Pacifica is probably just wishful thinking. And the Volvo XC40 for that matter. And, well, really all but the bottom 4 might be wishful thinking.
 
$118,803    Subaru Forester
 $115,917    Honda CRV Hybrid
 $143,619    Toyota Sienna Hybrid
 $154,478    Volvo XC40 Electric
 $164,107    Chrysler Pacfica
 $170,031    Audi E-Tron Electric
 $180,840    Volvo XC90 Hybrid
 $194,326    BMW X5 Hybrid
 $212,549    Mercedes GLE

If you were wondering about the list, it is the intersection of all vehicles with actual or plausible IIHS top safety picks, and vehicles which get better fuel economy than a 2014 Subaru Forester. Plus a Mercedes GLE, because. And then vehicles unsuitable to spouse were removed.

Is that opportunity cost factoring in a cash purchase or financing? DCU.org has 1.49% for 65mo (1.24% for EVs or high efficiency).

Thanks, great tip! That assumes cash. Naturally I would get a low interest loan and put the money in savings bonds though.

[Radagast]

OP, have you used the "it's a terrible market to buy a car" excuse with your spouse yet?  At least wait until it cools off (maybe it never will, but the empty car lots around me are starting to fill up again).

I definitely tried that one. Spouse suggested, and I can't disagree, that it might take two years or more to get back to normal. Around here it seems like inventory is not going up at all.

[Radagast]

Hey, Radagast, here are a few thoughts, for the two cents they're worth:

1) The new, hybrid-only Siennas are sure to last basically forever.  They're also, IMO, terrible.  DW and I took one for a test drive a few months back.  I really, really wanted it to be amazing, with Toyota's hybrid tech and reliability.  Unfortunately, from what we saw, it's a massive step backwards in practicality, compared to previous generations.  The second row seats are not removable for hauling 4x8 goods.  Well, they *can* be removed, but that requires a socket set and will leave you with an airbag warning light.  The 8th seat (2nd row, center seat) has a cushion so thin and soft that you can feel the seat frame through it. The rear bench seat is awful--the front corners of the bench are cut off in order to allow the seat to fold into the rear cargo floor, and the head rests are supremely uncomfortable.  The ma-HOO-sive center console eliminates nearly all the utility of that precious space between the front seats, the arm rests on the front seats can't be flipped up, and the dash looks like they let the art students design it instead of soccer moms and engineers.  Basically, it's a minivan that tries its best to act like a 4-seat SUV.  Or maybe it's the other way around?
2) Now is a terrible time to car shop.  We're in the market for a new-to-us minivan, and have been, for the last year.  The global chip shortage looks to be loosening its grip over the next 6 months, so that may help your wife delay her gratification just a bit longer.
3) If it's to be brand new, can you rent one of each model you're considering, for a week at a time, to make sure DW gets what she wants?
4) If it has to be a luxury SUV, get a Lexus.

1. So it's not just me? It is the same with the Highlander, which seems to be trying to mimic the Sienna and vice versa. I have never seen the inside of a Sienna though, they are all sold out.
2. Tell me about it!
3. I have not been able to find any of the models we are looking at on any local rental or short term loan site. I haven't put much effort into it, maybe there's something I'm missing.
4. Lexus seems to be having a similar issue to Toyota though. For example, the RX has a turning diameter of 45 feet, 5 longer than a minivan and 10 longer than a Forester. Both vehicles make terrible use or their size translating to interior space. I, and maybe both of us, would prefer a CRV, or the XC40 which should have similar cost after 10 years.

[Radagast]

Saw an article saying Mercedes is bringing two new EVs this coming year. Clearly she needs to wait to see them. Since it sounds like you keep your cars a good long while, I'd bet a gas Mercedes is going to take a huge hit to prestige (and depreciation) in 10 years compared to an EV.

Having lived with an EV for 5 months now, they're just that much better at being a car than an ICE is. The *only* complaint to have is range/charging access/charging time. I smile every time I cruise past a gas station and don't have to waste 5 minutes dealing with stinky fuel and stinkier pump-screen advertising.

Well that and they are only selling boats (or compliance cars, which are pretty bad) for EVs in the US. I guess technically there's the Kona, but I've never seen one in person, nor found it within 200 miles when we were looking. Even the recent leafs (where they quit being a compliance car) are not small.

A Mercedes EQB, to my ignorant mind, should be exactly what we are looking for.

[Radagast]

Spouse REALLY wants a Mercedes GLE, and loves it for all the reasons I hate it. Kelly Blue Book calls it "a sumptuous den of luxury" and that is much of an understatement as the GLE is not understated. I get depressed thinking about it, and my look when I do has probably been the most persuasive argument I have made. It is a vehicle which excels at nothing except as a monument to self-pampering hyper-consumerism. It is not trying to be timeless, nor efficient, nor practical, nor fun to drive, nor really anything. It is basically just a big rolling waste with a nice not-even-relaxing-because-it's-so-over-the-top interior.

[Paper Chaser]

This is blowing my mind. I cannot imagine justifying any of these!

Allow me to update the list with the lowest-cost vehicle meeting my criteria (I think, didn't check them all), a base model Honda Insight. Basically a hybrid Civic. See? Many of the rest aren't that bad in comparison. I don't think things get really unreasonable until you get past the Pacifica. Considering how crazy the used market is at the moment, there aren't many budget-friendly vehicles out there unless they are garbage. It is the same as local houses right now: all the price pressure is at the bottom of the market. Although I based my prices on the more expensive trims so realistically they should be a little less (that is the most expensive Honda CRV and Toyota Sienna you can configure, except a few lings like mud flaps).

~10 Year Future Cost   
 $118,803    Subaru Forester
 $97,031      Honda Insight
 $115,917    Honda CRV Hybrid
 $143,619    Toyota Sienna Hybrid
 $154,478    Volvo XC40 Electric
 $164,107    Chrysler Pacifica
 $170,031    Audi E-Tron Electric
 $180,840    Volvo XC90 Hybrid
 $194,326    BMW X5 Hybrid
 $212,549    Mercedes GLE

This list is based only on purchase price? Some of the hybrids and EVs will qualify for tax credits which might close the gap with cheaper ICEs. Less maintenance than an ICE and cheap charging can close the gap even more over the life of the vehicle. Depreciation is probably the biggest X factor in EV TCO calculations. It's possible that ICEs will depreciate faster in the future if customers prefer EVs. But it's also possible that EV tech moves fast, and early EVs will depreciate quickly as they become outdated and outclassed by newer tech. 5 or 10 year old cell phones don't have much value once newer models are released, and non-Tesla EVs have suffered from pretty brutal depreciation so far.

[Just Joe]

Some discussion to consider:

https://www.roadandtrack.com/car-culture/a38595024/used-car-market-will-crash/

I liked their strategy - by the cheapest thing you need to get past these high prices IF you need a vehicle. Otherwise, hold on to what you have. Sell any spare vehicles.

[Askel]

There's a brand new MB SUV sitting in the driveway with a big red bow on it this morning, right? :D 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcEylCwkSxE

[MayDay]

This is blowing my mind. I cannot imagine justifying any of these!

Allow me to update the list with the lowest-cost vehicle meeting my criteria (I think, didn't check them all), a base model Honda Insight. Basically a hybrid Civic. See? Many of the rest aren't that bad in comparison. I don't think things get really unreasonable until you get past the Pacifica. Considering how crazy the used market is at the moment, there aren't many budget-friendly vehicles out there unless they are garbage. It is the same as local houses right now: all the price pressure is at the bottom of the market. Although I based my prices on the more expensive trims so realistically they should be a little less (that is the most expensive Honda CRV and Toyota Sienna you can configure, except a few lings like mud flaps).

~10 Year Future Cost   
 $118,803    Subaru Forester
 $97,031      Honda Insight
 $115,917    Honda CRV Hybrid
 $143,619    Toyota Sienna Hybrid
 $154,478    Volvo XC40 Electric
 $164,107    Chrysler Pacifica
 $170,031    Audi E-Tron Electric
 $180,840    Volvo XC90 Hybrid
 $194,326    BMW X5 Hybrid
 $212,549    Mercedes GLE

Well I feel MMM proud of the new Insight I bought for 19k right before the chip shortage started (deep discount on a 2019 model in 2020).

But OMG it is the most boring car ever and I am not a car person. My last car was a 20 year old civic and even I kind of want to ditch the Insight and at least get a manual civic again lol.

[kms]

At least two of spouses friends have done so recently (one who waits tables and probably should not have, one a much older high-earning nurse who likely had no problems). I am just trying to turn it into the least worst financial choice I can ;).

Spouse REALLY wants a Mercedes GLE, and loves it for all the reasons I hate it. Kelly Blue Book calls it "a sumptuous den of luxury" and that is much of an understatement as the GLE is not understated.

Maybe it's just me but this sounds like a typical case of "keeping up with the Joneses". Maybe the reason your wife is so dead set on a Mercedes GLE because she does not want to lose face? Not saying this will change anything but it might help you understand her thought process a bit better. If you ask me I don't think there's much wiggle room left, and you might as well save yourself a lot of time, arguments, and ultimately tears by accepting that this may not be about the Mercedes per se but about what owning one and showing it off represents to her.

[chesebert]

Some discussion to consider:

https://www.roadandtrack.com/car-culture/a38595024/used-car-market-will-crash/

I liked their strategy - by the cheapest thing you need to get past these high prices IF you need a vehicle. Otherwise, hold on to what you have. Sell any spare vehicles.

This is the way. You are looking at a potential 50-60%+ depreciation in 3 years if the market corrects. I would buy CPO and ride out the shortage. .

[SailingOnASmallSailboat]

At least two of spouses friends have done so recently (one who waits tables and probably should not have, one a much older high-earning nurse who likely had no problems). I am just trying to turn it into the least worst financial choice I can ;).

Spouse REALLY wants a Mercedes GLE, and loves it for all the reasons I hate it. Kelly Blue Book calls it "a sumptuous den of luxury" and that is much of an understatement as the GLE is not understated.

Maybe it's just me but this sounds like a typical case of "keeping up with the Joneses". Maybe the reason your wife is so dead set on a Mercedes GLE because she does not want to lose face? Not saying this will change anything but it might help you understand her thought process a bit better. If you ask me I don't think there's much wiggle room left, and you might as well save yourself a lot of time, arguments, and ultimately tears by accepting that this may not be about the Mercedes per se but about what owning one and showing it off represents to her.

This. My brother and SIL sold their minivan because SIL wanted an SUV, pretty much solely because minivans in their area are looked down upon. Less practical in almost every way, the SUV is just what she wanted and it fits in better. The Mercedes has nothing to do with what will work and everything to do with what looks right.

[chesebert]

One more thing to consider when buying German right now is that if any part needs replacement - this can happen to both new and used cars, you will be waiting weeks for the part. I have a BMW and waited over a month for some suspension parts, 3 weeks for a hose and been waiting for almost 2 months for a stupid trim part. If you need to drive everyday and do not have a flexible driving schedule you should look at non-German. Admittedly I don’t know if similar shortages also plague brands other than BMW.

[sonofsven]

Yeah, I really can't identify with this luxury suv idea. The only Mercedes I would possibly spend decent money on would be a Sprinter- cuz I could live in it.
How 'bout a late 90's ML? Extremely capable and extremely cheap.

[chesebert]

Yeah, I really can't identify with this luxury suv idea. The only Mercedes I would possibly spend decent money on would be a Sprinter- cuz I could live in it.
How 'bout a late 90's ML? Extremely capable and extremely cheap.

Try an AMG wagon (or even the regular E class wagon) and report back.

[RWD]

One more thing to consider when buying German right now is that if any part needs replacement - this can happen to both new and used cars, you will be waiting weeks for the part. I have a BMW and waited over a month for some suspension parts, 3 weeks for a hose and been waiting for almost 2 months for a stupid trim part. If you need to drive everyday and do not have a flexible driving schedule you should look at non-German. Admittedly I don’t know if similar shortages also plague brands other than BMW.

Might depend on the specific model too. The GLE is built in Alabama so perhaps it would have better parts availability. A lot of BMWs and Mercedes are being built in the US now.

[RWD]

Yeah, I really can't identify with this luxury suv idea. The only Mercedes I would possibly spend decent money on would be a Sprinter- cuz I could live in it.
How 'bout a late 90's ML? Extremely capable and extremely cheap.

Try an AMG wagon (or even the regular E class wagon) and report back.

The new EQS is really appealing. Too bad it's $100k+. Maybe some day when they've depreciated a bunch...

[sonofsven]

Yeah, I really can't identify with this luxury suv idea. The only Mercedes I would possibly spend decent money on would be a Sprinter- cuz I could live in it.
How 'bout a late 90's ML? Extremely capable and extremely cheap.

Try an AMG wagon (or even the regular E class wagon) and report back.

I think it would be too cramped ;-) I like to stretch out.

[SunnyDays]

I’ve never seen a Kona EV, but I ended up with a regular one for a rental and pretty much hated it.  Normally I drive a Matrix and while the Kona was bigger on the outside, it had significantly less room on the inside.  Plus it’s design made what room there was less accessible.  The rear doors don’t open wide enough, the seats don’t slide up enough and the hatch space is mor cramped.  The only thing I did like was the driver’s seat.  It fit me just perfectly and I’m a small person.  I returned it after a week for a Kia Forte and that car was superior in ever way except for the driver’s seat (of course), which was small and uncomfortable.  Combine the two vehicles and you’ve got a winner.

[chesebert]

Here is the current list, with my estimated 10-year opportunity cost. Forester is just a benchmark. A Pacifica is probably just wishful thinking. And the Volvo XC40 for that matter. And, well, really all but the bottom 4 might be wishful thinking.
 
$118,803    Subaru Forester
 $115,917    Honda CRV Hybrid
 $143,619    Toyota Sienna Hybrid
 $154,478    Volvo XC40 Electric
 $164,107    Chrysler Pacfica
 $170,031    Audi E-Tron Electric
 $180,840    Volvo XC90 Hybrid
 $194,326    BMW X5 Hybrid
 $212,549    Mercedes GLE

If you were wondering about the list, it is the intersection of all vehicles with actual or plausible IIHS top safety picks, and vehicles which get better fuel economy than a 2014 Subaru Forester. Plus a Mercedes GLE, because. And then vehicles unsuitable to spouse were removed.

Not sure if these numbers are all that helpful in decision making - 212k and 141k look equally scary. Just stick to 2-3% networth number and you should be fine.

[Radagast]

This is blowing my mind. I cannot imagine justifying any of these!

Allow me to update the list with the lowest-cost vehicle meeting my criteria (I think, didn't check them all), a base model Honda Insight. Basically a hybrid Civic. See? Many of the rest aren't that bad in comparison. I don't think things get really unreasonable until you get past the Pacifica. Considering how crazy the used market is at the moment, there aren't many budget-friendly vehicles out there unless they are garbage. It is the same as local houses right now: all the price pressure is at the bottom of the market. Although I based my prices on the more expensive trims so realistically they should be a little less (that is the most expensive Honda CRV and Toyota Sienna you can configure, except a few lings like mud flaps).

~10 Year Future Cost   
 $118,803    Subaru Forester
 $97,031      Honda Insight
 $115,917    Honda CRV Hybrid
 $143,619    Toyota Sienna Hybrid
 $154,478    Volvo XC40 Electric
 $164,107    Chrysler Pacifica
 $170,031    Audi E-Tron Electric
 $180,840    Volvo XC90 Hybrid
 $194,326    BMW X5 Hybrid
 $212,549    Mercedes GLE

This list is based only on purchase price? Some of the hybrids and EVs will qualify for tax credits which might close the gap with cheaper ICEs. Less maintenance than an ICE and cheap charging can close the gap even more over the life of the vehicle. Depreciation is probably the biggest X factor in EV TCO calculations. It's possible that ICEs will depreciate faster in the future if customers prefer EVs. But it's also possible that EV tech moves fast, and early EVs will depreciate quickly as they become outdated and outclassed by newer tech. 5 or 10 year old cell phones don't have much value once newer models are released, and non-Tesla EVs have suffered from pretty brutal depreciation so far.

It is purchase price based on my estimation of what trims/options we would get, local taxes, federal incentives, fuel costs based on my own numbers and 7500 miles/year, and all other information from https://caredge.com/. I can't predict future maintenance cost, residual value, and opportunity cost though, so it is very crude. I made a crude attempt to apply a 7% discount rate by multiplying upfront costs by 2, and summed ten year ongoing costs by 1.5.

[Radagast]

Some discussion to consider:

https://www.roadandtrack.com/car-culture/a38595024/used-car-market-will-crash/

I liked their strategy - by the cheapest thing you need to get past these high prices IF you need a vehicle. Otherwise, hold on to what you have. Sell any spare vehicles.

You are speaking like an irrational person. If you were rational, you would rush right out and buy a luxury SUV!

Sarcasm aside, buying the cheapest vehicle is what everyone is doing, so there is a lot lot lot of price pressure on cheaper vehicles, to the point that used vehicles may not represent better value. If you got in a wreck and need a car now, your choice is to wait 3-6 months for something to show up, or buy a used vehicle at whatever price you can get. Which has made cheap cars of all types the least attractive they have ever been relative to expensive cars. Based on my observations. Of course, we can afford to wait 3-6 months for a cheap new car, we are just choosing to wait 3-6 months for an expensive new car instead.

[Radagast]

At least two of spouses friends have done so recently (one who waits tables and probably should not have, one a much older high-earning nurse who likely had no problems). I am just trying to turn it into the least worst financial choice I can ;).

Spouse REALLY wants a Mercedes GLE, and loves it for all the reasons I hate it. Kelly Blue Book calls it "a sumptuous den of luxury" and that is much of an understatement as the GLE is not understated.

Maybe it's just me but this sounds like a typical case of "keeping up with the Joneses". Maybe the reason your wife is so dead set on a Mercedes GLE because she does not want to lose face? Not saying this will change anything but it might help you understand her thought process a bit better. If you ask me I don't think there's much wiggle room left, and you might as well save yourself a lot of time, arguments, and ultimately tears by accepting that this may not be about the Mercedes per se but about what owning one and showing it off represents to her.

That is basically what it's down to.

[Radagast]

Here is the current list, with my estimated 10-year opportunity cost. Forester is just a benchmark. A Pacifica is probably just wishful thinking. And the Volvo XC40 for that matter. And, well, really all but the bottom 4 might be wishful thinking.
 
$118,803    Subaru Forester
 $115,917    Honda CRV Hybrid
 $143,619    Toyota Sienna Hybrid
 $154,478    Volvo XC40 Electric
 $164,107    Chrysler Pacfica
 $170,031    Audi E-Tron Electric
 $180,840    Volvo XC90 Hybrid
 $194,326    BMW X5 Hybrid
 $212,549    Mercedes GLE

If you were wondering about the list, it is the intersection of all vehicles with actual or plausible IIHS top safety picks, and vehicles which get better fuel economy than a 2014 Subaru Forester. Plus a Mercedes GLE, because. And then vehicles unsuitable to spouse were removed.

Not sure if these numbers are all that helpful in decision making - 212k and 141k look equally scary. Just stick to 2-3% networth number and you should be fine.

I like to try and work ongoing expenses into it too. By projecting everything out after 10 years I am getting the best idea of what we are up against. I have a couple ways of looking at it, including just upfront cost, NPV, and FV. If $70,000 less after ten years isn't more scary, then it just isn't more scary. I can also say that if we intend to average this level of expenditure every ten years, we need about an extra $125,000 to reach financial independence, comparing a GLE to CRV. Perhaps an extra $175,000 comparing to an outright used econobox.

[Radagast]

UPDATE:
We are actually getting a "2022 BMW X5 xDrive45e" PHEV.  The 2022 BMW does not look as bad as the 2018 we drove earlier. An X5 was actually the vehicle spouse originally wanted, because apparently BMW is the most prestigious brand of all. Spouse eventually agreed to go back to the X5 over my intense opposition to the GLE. I consider this a small victory. The BMW will be just a little cheaper. With a $7500 tax credit and 31-mile electric driving range (which covers 90% of our driving at less than half the efficiency of a Tesla) it will certainly be cheaper. Side benefit: it has an adjustable height air suspension, which along with being a serious maintenance item, can be lowered 1.5 inches to give better efficiency and stability. Yesterday I saw one lowered as far as possible, and along with the clamshell trunk to keep apples from rolling out it looks just like the failed minivan it is.

Also the HUD is kick ass. It shows speed, speed limit, a map of the road ahead, and apparently quite a few other things projected on the windshield (never saw one in real life). This will probably be my favorite part.

[chesebert]

What a waste of everyone’s time. Enjoy your car - HUD with navigation is great. Just make sure you continue the subscription after initial ownership. On the other hand PHEV is the worst of all worlds, but you do you.

Just to be clear you would be lucky to get on the road for less than $80k.

[MayDay]

What a waste of everyone’s time. Enjoy your car - HUD with navigation is great. Just make sure you continue the subscription after initial ownership. On the other hand PHEV is the worst of all worlds, but you do you.

Just to be clear you would be lucky to get on the road for less than $80k.

Why is PHEV the worst of both worlds?

And what is a waste of everyone's time?

[chesebert]

What a waste of everyone’s time. Enjoy your car - HUD with navigation is great. Just make sure you continue the subscription after initial ownership. On the other hand PHEV is the worst of all worlds, but you do you.

Just to be clear you would be lucky to get on the road for less than $80k.

Why is PHEV the worst of both worlds?
Extremely complex to maintain and prone to failure. Small battery also degrades faster. EV range will be significantly affected during the winter months making the suv an essentially 6 cylinder turbo ICE gas guzzler.


And what is a waste of everyone's time?
People tried to help him save money and he ends up spending even more than where he started at. I did get a chuckle out of seeing him go back to X5 after trashing it in op. I suppose seeing middle class people spend shit ton of money on a fast depreciating asset is comedy in this forum.

[uniwelder]

What a waste of everyone’s time. Enjoy your car - HUD with navigation is great. Just make sure you continue the subscription after initial ownership. On the other hand PHEV is the worst of all worlds, but you do you.

Just to be clear you would be lucky to get on the road for less than $80k.

Why is PHEV the worst of both worlds?
Extremely complex to maintain and prone to failure. Small battery also degrades faster. EV range will be significantly affected during the winter months making the suv an essentially 6 cylinder turbo ICE gas guzzler.


And what is a waste of everyone's time?
People tried to help him save money and he ends up spending even more than where he started at. I did get a chuckle out of seeing him go back to X5 after trashing it in op. I suppose seeing middle class people spend shit ton of money on a fast depreciating asset is comedy in this forum.

Did you not read the original posting? This was his wife’s decision to make that he opposes. How can you be so dense not to understand?

[MayDay]

What a waste of everyone’s time. Enjoy your car - HUD with navigation is great. Just make sure you continue the subscription after initial ownership. On the other hand PHEV is the worst of all worlds, but you do you.

Just to be clear you would be lucky to get on the road for less than $80k.

Why is PHEV the worst of both worlds?
Extremely complex to maintain and prone to failure. Small battery also degrades faster. EV range will be significantly affected during the winter months making the suv an essentially 6 cylinder turbo ICE gas guzzler.


And what is a waste of everyone's time?
People tried to help him save money and he ends up spending even more than where he started at. I did get a chuckle out of seeing him go back to X5 after trashing it in op. I suppose seeing middle class people spend shit ton of money on a fast depreciating asset is comedy in this forum.

Did you not read the original posting? This was his wife’s decision to make that he opposes. How can you be so dense not to understand?

No kidding, and look at the forum...

[Radagast]

What a waste of everyone’s time. Enjoy your car - HUD with navigation is great. Just make sure you continue the subscription after initial ownership. On the other hand PHEV is the worst of all worlds, but you do you.

Just to be clear you would be lucky to get on the road for less than $80k.

Why is PHEV the worst of both worlds?
Extremely complex to maintain and prone to failure. Small battery also degrades faster. EV range will be significantly affected during the winter months making the suv an essentially 6 cylinder turbo ICE gas guzzler.


And what is a waste of everyone's time?
People tried to help him save money and he ends up spending even more than where he started at. I did get a chuckle out of seeing him go back to X5 after trashing it in op. I suppose seeing middle class people spend shit ton of money on a fast depreciating asset is comedy in this forum.

I'm sorry you feel that way. I posted in Antimustachian Wall of Shame and Comedy, so hopefully most people came expecting their time to be wasted.

Is a PHEV worse than a regular hybrid? I have been contemplating it. On the one hand it will require typical annual ICE maintenance, and gas station stops, and nightly recharging. On the other hand the nightly recharging will cause a proportionate drop in gas station time. So probably time is a wash, and it will be less expensive to operate. Certainly a PHEV X5 would be less expensive than non-PHEV version as a result of the $7500 tax credit, even if never charged. Even on the coldest day, if the range was cut in half, we would still barely burn gas. I like that I wouldn't half to worry about the battery simply dying in the winter too.

Besides, the X5 isn't that bad. Motortrend rates it the 5th-best midsize luxury SUV excluding those with three rows. It is also the best BMW model available per Road and Track, who says says "It's Pretty Sad That the X5 Hybrid Is the Best Thing BMW Makes."

[GreenToTheCore]

I posted in Antimustachian Wall of Shame and Comedy, so hopefully most people came expecting their time to be wasted.

Agreed. Thanks for the conversation and I'm glad you found a solution that works for you guys.

Yesterday I saw one lowered as far as possible, and along with the clamshell trunk to keep apples from rolling out it looks just like the failed minivan it is.

This made me giggle.
Happy New Year  *cheers*

[zolotiyeruki]

Besides, the X5 isn't that bad. Motortrend rates it the 5th-best midsize luxury SUV excluding those with three rows. It is also the best BMW model available per Road and Track, who says says "It's Pretty Sad That the X5 Hybrid Is the Best Thing BMW Makes."

How many competitors are there in the "midsized, two-row SUV" category?  That categorization winnows the field quite a bit, and to come in fifth place in that category doesn't inspire a great deal of confidence...

[Radagast]

Besides, the X5 isn't that bad. Motortrend rates it the 5th-best midsize luxury SUV excluding those with three rows. It is also the best BMW model available per Road and Track, who says says "It's Pretty Sad That the X5 Hybrid Is the Best Thing BMW Makes."

How many competitors are there in the "midsized, two-row SUV" category?  That categorization winnows the field quite a bit, and to come in fifth place in that category doesn't inspire a great deal of confidence...

:D

[Paper Chaser]

What a waste of everyone’s time. Enjoy your car - HUD with navigation is great. Just make sure you continue the subscription after initial ownership. On the other hand PHEV is the worst of all worlds, but you do you.

Just to be clear you would be lucky to get on the road for less than $80k.

Why is PHEV the worst of both worlds?
Extremely complex to maintain and prone to failure. Small battery also degrades faster. EV range will be significantly affected during the winter months making the suv an essentially 6 cylinder turbo ICE gas guzzler.

My PHEV with 20 mile EV range has required 1 oil change every 15k miles or so, and 1 tank of fuel every ~1k miles, and.....that's it. In 60k miles. It's hardly difficult to maintain, as it operates as an EV for more than half the miles that I drive. Modern ICEs last a very long time, and PHEVs use the ICE stuff much less than a regular ICE.

[RWD]

Besides, the X5 isn't that bad. Motortrend rates it the 5th-best midsize luxury SUV excluding those with three rows. It is also the best BMW model available per Road and Track, who says says "It's Pretty Sad That the X5 Hybrid Is the Best Thing BMW Makes."

How many competitors are there in the "midsized, two-row SUV" category?  That categorization winnows the field quite a bit, and to come in fifth place in that category doesn't inspire a great deal of confidence...

:D

Looks like Motor Trend lists 9 vehicles in that category. So #5 is exactly the median. At least it beats the GLE (#7).
https://www.motortrend.com/style/luxury-suv/

[chesebert]

If Cayenne is actually made in Germany and not in the US I think it’s a better buy for the same price. In terms of build quality in general I would take made in Japan, Germany or Canada over US, South Korea and Mexico.

[Radagast]

Many of my comments in this thread should be construed as attempts to add comedy to what would otherwise be nothing but a wall of shame.