Author Topic: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?  (Read 2132 times)

Firefist

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How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« on: February 01, 2024, 06:24:16 AM »
I thought about sending this out in the Canadian group, but its really a question for everyone.  There is a lot of discussion out there on the 4% rule and most of the time my observation is that Social Security is not used in the calculations, often mentioned as a contingency or buffer…. That if you follow the 4% rule, it works because there is also Social Security coming in your 60’s.   I would like to ask the group here what their thoughts are on this and how you factor in this government money?  The reason I ask is that being Canadian, we don’t nearly have the same security waiting for us when we reach our 60’s.  The Canadian Pension plan (CPP) with Old Age Security is at best 1/2 or even 1/3 of the size for Canadians as compared to our American counterparts.  Even hitting maximum earnings for CPP every year, one retiring in their 40’s for example is likely to see no more than $700-$800 per month (Todays dollars…. CND) which quite pathetic compared to Social Security.  Generally, do you see Social Security or the CPP part of a 4% calculation (Essentially needing less stash because of what will be coming in from the government down the road), or do you exclude it and treat it only as a buffer/contingency?  If you are Canadian, at what withdrawal rate would you be comfortable taking from your invested assets knowing our government benefits are weaker?   

NotJen

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2024, 06:39:29 AM »
American here.  I ignored it.  With a 50 year retirement (fingers crossed), it will be a buffer.

I should get $1000/mo (today, USD).

GilesMM

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2024, 06:44:02 AM »
The choice is entirely yours.  Most Americans follow the 0% rule and will rely 100% on SS in their dotage.   If I receive anything starting age 70, I consider it a windfall and will probably donate it all to charity.  Without major reform, SS runs short of money in ten years.

Omy

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2024, 06:47:14 AM »
When I was in my 30s and 40s, I treated it as a contingency.

Now that I'm FIREd and within a year of being eligible to draw from SS it's starting to feel real (though I will wait a few years to draw so the amount will be higher).

Now I assume there will be cuts at some point and only assume 70% of the payment will be available to us in the future.

If SS remains available, we WAY oversaved. If there are big cuts to the program, I will be happy we saved as much as we did.


daverobev

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #4 on: February 01, 2024, 07:13:52 AM »
You use a FIRE simulator that allows you to add in pension/s at given age/s, and calculate from there.

CPP isn't going anywhere, it's as safe a government pension as you can get because it's actually backed by something.

OAS of course you don't need to earn a dollar to qualify for, you just have to live in Canada.

The 4% rule is just a starting point.

GuitarStv

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2024, 07:23:03 AM »
I mostly ignore CPP and OAS in my calculations.  Figure it can be considered a contingency.

mistymoney

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #6 on: February 01, 2024, 07:43:18 AM »
Since my RE will be just a few years early (aka I didn't get too far on my fire earlier in life....) I'm trying to figure this out too so I'm not working longer than I need to. If you figure the benefit is going to be there for x dollars/year, and you are committed to the 4% (or any other percent) then theoretically you can draw 4%+y% and anticipate that you will erode the balance until the x payment comes in and then the remaining pot needs to be 4%+x=annual budget.

Then solve for y.....i haven't gotten that far yet.

Metalcat

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #7 on: February 01, 2024, 08:33:04 AM »
DH works for the federal government and all of the pension calculators factor CPP in, so I just consider it part of his overall pension.

My career has been so whacky that I don't even know what to expect from CPP because I made a lot of money in very few years, but am going back to work now, so who knows how that will shake out down the line. So for me, it will just be a bonus.

Villanelle

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #8 on: February 01, 2024, 08:43:17 AM »
I'm an American and ignore it, other than as an item on my mental "reasons my plan is even more secure" list.  Sure, ours is more than yours, but our could easily be cut.  (I don't see it going away entirely, but who knows what it will look like, to maybe even include some sort of net worth limit, income limit, or other means testing.)  Also, Americans' potential for massive later-life health care costs is much greater than yours, as I understand it, so that seems to be mostly off-setting (our larger government-provided income for your smaller one but without the potential for insane medical costs). 

The closer we get to actual age of collection, the more I'll feel I can count on it in the same, or nearly the same, form as it is at that time.  But we hope to be RE long before then, so it's hard to know how much of a discount to slap on as a "this could change, maybe drastically for someone with a nice stache" factor.

TimCFJ40

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #9 on: February 01, 2024, 09:05:17 AM »
If you are planning to retire early and have a long retirement even before SS is available to you, you should probably ignore it for two reasons IMO:

1) Your benefit may be reduced due to your shorter working career affecting your payout (I'm not sure how CPP is calculated so this may or may not apply to CPP)
2) Your nest egg needs to last 20+ years BEFORE Social Security is available, and if you have any margin on the 4% rule, you will likely have more money than you retired with when you get to SS age.

« Last Edit: February 02, 2024, 06:52:29 AM by TimCFJ40 »

erp

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #10 on: February 01, 2024, 09:33:04 AM »
I think as a Canadian, it's worth considering that CPP is much more stable than SS is down south. While our system isn't fully funded by a long shot, it is pretty stable as long as Alberta doesn't somehow manage to abscond with all the cash (and that's a deeply unpopular proposal even among the UCP base here).

Lots of retires also plan on OAS and GIS; it's definitely possible to be eligible for OAS as a FIRE'd person (although this could be cut pretty easily). I think basically everyone with any access to wealth should plan to have no GIS.

If you're early in the accumulation phase, my advice is to ignore it entirely and focus on the near-term stuff like savings rates and keeping expense ratios low. Once you're starting to approach your number and taking a serious look at what the mechanics of ER are, then you'll have a better idea what you're eligible for and what the system looks like. If you're retiring around the 40 mark, maybe you count it as effectively zero, but if you're retiring closer to 50 or 55 then it should be straightforward to estimate what the payout would be in different circumstances (ie. take it at 60, 65, 70).

By the time you're seriously looking at the mechanics of your own ER, you'll be starting to stress test the 4% rule, considering what income sources you have, wondering about tax implications and realistically assessing your actual living expenses. That's the right time to be getting down to the nuts and bolts of your CPP payouts too.

aloevera1

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #11 on: February 01, 2024, 09:34:48 AM »
I don't factor it in. First, I am still fairly young so a lot can change in these years. Second, between unknown future contributions and tax clawbacks I don't actually know what I will be eligible for. Whatever I receive will be welcome. :)

Sugaree

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #12 on: February 01, 2024, 09:58:58 AM »
I consider it in my models.  If I don't get remarried then I will be able to take widow's benefits as early as 60 and hold off on my own benefits until much later.  Currently, I only factor in 75% of calculated benefits until it becomes more clear what happens between now and 2033. 

Ron Scott

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #13 on: February 01, 2024, 10:03:28 AM »
The so-called 4% rule says you can withdraw and not replace 4% of your invested assets for 30 years, increase it by inflation every year, and be “safe”.

This has nothing to do with pensions or SS or CCP or taxes or the value of non-invested assets like a house or how much you spend before or after retirement. It’s just math based on a belief that while the world of the future will be dramatically different from the past, investments will somehow magically follow some law of nature and behave the same as they have (for a limited period of time in the past).

Somewhere along the line people forgot the 30-year part of the rule and now believe it can last 40, 50 years, whatever. Maybe a baby can be given $1M and enjoy $40k inflated ‘till 💯

I say ignore all of it…

Drink Coffee And Stack Money

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #14 on: February 01, 2024, 10:24:54 AM »
I'm 50 and my wife is 42. We should be completely FI in the next 4-5 years.
My current plan is to downshift after we hit our FI number, not RE, and most likely work to 59.5. My wife's plan is to RE the day she gets the green light to do so. So with 12 years before I can draw anything from SS, and 20 years from now for my wife, we don't even factor SS in to our FI number. Whatever we get in future SS will just be a bonus. I know I'd never feel 100% comfortable in retirement if any part of my retirement is dependent on the government.

Telecaster

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #15 on: February 01, 2024, 10:32:58 AM »
I didn't factor it in at all in accumulation phase, for all the usual reasons, too far in the future, too many variables, etc.   But SS is a real thing, it makes sense to factor it in especially once you get into your 50s and SS is within a reasonable time frame in the future.    A powerful feature of SS (sorry, I don't know how CPP works) is that you get a significant benefit by delaying, which in turn provides a meaningful increase in portfolio survivability should you get a bad sequence of returns. 

erp

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #16 on: February 01, 2024, 10:37:32 AM »
...

Somewhere along the line people forgot the 30-year part of the rule and now believe it can last 40, 50 years, whatever. Maybe a baby can be given $1M and enjoy $40k inflated ‘till 💯

I say ignore all of it…

It's funny you mention this. There's some neat policy suggestions around 'baby bonds' which would give an invested amount of money to youth which would grow over time, and eventually be used to pay for home ownership, starting companies, or higher education.

https://www.aclu.org/news/racial-justice/baby-bonds-a-path-toward-prosperity-for-future-generations

You're of course right that the Trinity study doesn't support a 4% SWR indefinitely, but I wouldn't discount the possibility that giving babies money is a bad idea :)

jrhampt

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #17 on: February 01, 2024, 10:39:19 AM »
What I do periodically is log into ssa.gov and see what my estimated benefit will be if I continue working.  Then I see what happens if I add 0s from now on - what would the estimated benefit be then.  If I retire in my late 40s or hopefully by 50 at least, I plan on covering current spend x 25 with my invested assets (of which about half are outside of retirement plans), and then SS will be there as a backstop/extra padding to help with future inflation, healthcare costs, etc.  So I don't count it in my 25x expenses stash number, even though it will be a significant amount if the estimates are correct and possibly enough to cover most of my expenses by itself.

moof

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #18 on: February 01, 2024, 10:46:41 AM »
I toss it in tools like crfiresim.com, where it makes a modest difference given my wife can get it early in 15 years, and I plan on triggering mine at age 70 in 23 years.  I have also estimated its current value, mostly as a mental estimate.  Net present value formula with a reasonable interested rate of ~4% and assuming we make it to our mid-80's shows it to be worth $200k for me, $130k for my wife.  So very crudely speaking it is ~$330k of net present value I don't need today.  Roughly speaking it makes my SWR about 5% instead of 4%.  I cfiresim that is about the effect I see, so it makes sense either way I look at it.

YMMV.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2024, 10:51:51 AM by moof »

aloevera1

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #19 on: February 01, 2024, 10:49:41 AM »
...

Somewhere along the line people forgot the 30-year part of the rule and now believe it can last 40, 50 years, whatever. Maybe a baby can be given $1M and enjoy $40k inflated ‘till 💯

I say ignore all of it…

It's funny you mention this. There's some neat policy suggestions around 'baby bonds' which would give an invested amount of money to youth which would grow over time, and eventually be used to pay for home ownership, starting companies, or higher education.

https://www.aclu.org/news/racial-justice/baby-bonds-a-path-toward-prosperity-for-future-generations

You're of course right that the Trinity study doesn't support a 4% SWR indefinitely, but I wouldn't discount the possibility that giving babies money is a bad idea :)

What do you mean??? Am I supposed to save an extra mil for every hypothetical baby I am planning???? I will never retire at this rate lol

YttriumNitrate

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #20 on: February 01, 2024, 10:52:12 AM »
You're of course right that the Trinity study doesn't support a 4% SWR indefinitely, but I wouldn't discount the possibility that giving babies money is a bad idea :)
Didn't the Trinity study find that the terminal value of any 75/25, 50/50, or 25/75 stock/bond portfolio after 30 years of 4% drawdowns was at least 40% greater than the starting value (with the typical being about 400% greater)?

https://www.aaii.com/files/pdf/6794_retirement-savings-choosing-a-withdrawal-rate-that-is-sustainable.pdf

Laura33

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #21 on: February 01, 2024, 11:58:03 AM »
Well, I don't do the 4% rule, other than as a general guesstimate at any given time on how much we could retire on today.  I do the "bucket" method, where I group future years into specific buckets, based on changes in income/expenses, and then figure out how much I need to have now to fill each bucket at that particular future time. 

We ignored SS, pension, and inheritances when we were younger, because those things were uncertain, and we wanted our savings strategy to focus on our worst-case needs.  Once we hit about 50, we started adding in maybe 1/2 SS, because historically, Congress has phased in significant changes to SS, so that people who are retired or close to retirement age get hit less than younger folks.  Now we're close enough that we're including full SS in the budget -- although we also have a ton of luxury, like travel, that can easily get cut if SS comes in less than anticipated.

Also note that our projections include only one SS after about age 75, rather than 2, because once the first of us dies, that second SS goes away.   

GuitarStv

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #22 on: February 01, 2024, 12:00:38 PM »
...

Somewhere along the line people forgot the 30-year part of the rule and now believe it can last 40, 50 years, whatever. Maybe a baby can be given $1M and enjoy $40k inflated ‘till 💯

I say ignore all of it…

It's funny you mention this. There's some neat policy suggestions around 'baby bonds' which would give an invested amount of money to youth which would grow over time, and eventually be used to pay for home ownership, starting companies, or higher education.

https://www.aclu.org/news/racial-justice/baby-bonds-a-path-toward-prosperity-for-future-generations

You're of course right that the Trinity study doesn't support a 4% SWR indefinitely, but I wouldn't discount the possibility that giving babies money is a bad idea :)

What do you mean??? Am I supposed to save an extra mil for every hypothetical baby I am planning???? I will never retire at this rate lol

This is why it's best to have twins.  You sell one, and then use those funds to pay for the other one.

Ron Scott

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #23 on: February 01, 2024, 12:41:36 PM »
...

Somewhere along the line people forgot the 30-year part of the rule and now believe it can last 40, 50 years, whatever. Maybe a baby can be given $1M and enjoy $40k inflated ‘till 💯

I say ignore all of it…

It's funny you mention this. There's some neat policy suggestions around 'baby bonds' which would give an invested amount of money to youth which would grow over time, and eventually be used to pay for home ownership, starting companies, or higher education.

https://www.aclu.org/news/racial-justice/baby-bonds-a-path-toward-prosperity-for-future-generations

You're of course right that the Trinity study doesn't support a 4% SWR indefinitely, but I wouldn't discount the possibility that giving babies money is a bad idea :)

I think it’s a great idea.

We can’t predict the future—be it for the economy or investment returns or the nature of the opportunity for a good life the next generation will have. Establishing robust FI and the ability to provide some level of financial assistance to your kids or grandkids can be one of the most rewarding things in life.

Firefist

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #24 on: February 01, 2024, 12:44:29 PM »
Thanks everyone for the replies.  It sounds like most don't factor it in, which is consistent with most of the info I see out there.  When you are on the Canadian side and studying what others in this space are doing and most of the content available is American, this is where things start to fall apart a little.  If this community in general considers their SS as their buffer, perhaps a Canadian should consider building a little more of a buffer to account for the difference in the CPP VS SS.  Frankly its disappointing how much of a difference there is between the two programs.  I don't think its as much to do with health care differences or differences in tax rates as it is that Americans and their employers I believe pay more into their SS than we do.  I did some math once when considering a job offer south of the border and discovered that if I worked only the 10 minimum years required to qualify for SS, what I would get in SS would almost equate to the amount a Canadian would receive in CPP after working a full career.  The Canadian benefit should be improved but that is another discussion. :)

mistymoney

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #25 on: February 01, 2024, 01:13:54 PM »
...

Somewhere along the line people forgot the 30-year part of the rule and now believe it can last 40, 50 years, whatever. Maybe a baby can be given $1M and enjoy $40k inflated ‘till 💯

I say ignore all of it…

It's funny you mention this. There's some neat policy suggestions around 'baby bonds' which would give an invested amount of money to youth which would grow over time, and eventually be used to pay for home ownership, starting companies, or higher education.

https://www.aclu.org/news/racial-justice/baby-bonds-a-path-toward-prosperity-for-future-generations

You're of course right that the Trinity study doesn't support a 4% SWR indefinitely, but I wouldn't discount the possibility that giving babies money is a bad idea :)

rich broke dead says that baby has a 76% success rate to age 100....and a 73% chance of ending up with 5M or more at the end of it....


mistymoney

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #26 on: February 01, 2024, 01:16:35 PM »
I toss it in tools like crfiresim.com, where it makes a modest difference given my wife can get it early in 15 years, and I plan on triggering mine at age 70 in 23 years.  I have also estimated its current value, mostly as a mental estimate.  Net present value formula with a reasonable interested rate of ~4% and assuming we make it to our mid-80's shows it to be worth $200k for me, $130k for my wife.  So very crudely speaking it is ~$330k of net present value I don't need today.  Roughly speaking it makes my SWR about 5% instead of 4%.  I cfiresim that is about the effect I see, so it makes sense either way I look at it.

YMMV.

thanks, this is an interesting pov on it. how did you figure the net present value?

cowman

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #27 on: February 01, 2024, 01:33:26 PM »
strickly canadian response as I have no idea how SS works.

CPP is set up to replace 25% of your average lifetime earnings.33% if you are young and pay the recently  introduced "enhanced CPP"

As Mustacians I assume we understand the time value of money ,so the earlier you retire(and do not contribute) the less you get.


Turtle

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #28 on: February 02, 2024, 09:34:14 AM »
The Rich, Broke, Dead tool has a spot for extra income, with the ability to add an age when it starts. 

I put in my SS prediction there, which I got from the government site putting 0 for remaining earnings on their prediction tool.  It's not going to be exact, but I figure it is close enough.

Retire-Canada

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #29 on: February 06, 2024, 08:33:49 AM »
If you are Canadian, at what withdrawal rate would you be comfortable taking from your invested assets knowing our government benefits are weaker?

When I had way less than enough assets for a 4%WR I included an estimate for CPP/OAS in my FIRE spreadsheets and cFIREsim inputs. Mostly for morale purposes in case I had to FIRE earlier than planned.

Once I had enough in my portfolio for a 4%WR [or lower] on liquid assets alone I stopped really thinking about CPP/OAS. It's just become one of those extra layers of safety like PT work and flexible spending.

I quit FT work at 51 and won't draw CPP/OAS until at least 65 so it's not really a factor for the first ~15-20 years of retirement.

moof

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #30 on: February 06, 2024, 02:30:36 PM »
I toss it in tools like crfiresim.com, where it makes a modest difference given my wife can get it early in 15 years, and I plan on triggering mine at age 70 in 23 years.  I have also estimated its current value, mostly as a mental estimate.  Net present value formula with a reasonable interested rate of ~4% and assuming we make it to our mid-80's shows it to be worth $200k for me, $130k for my wife.  So very crudely speaking it is ~$330k of net present value I don't need today.  Roughly speaking it makes my SWR about 5% instead of 4%.  I cfiresim that is about the effect I see, so it makes sense either way I look at it.

YMMV.

thanks, this is an interesting pov on it. how did you figure the net present value?
Excel uses the npv() formula (or use Libre Office).  There are online calculators too.  Basically take a sequence of values, and discount each one by a reasonable interest rate and the number of years away it is.  So 100k in 10 years with a an interest rate of 3% would be worth 100,000/(1+0.03)^10 today (74.4k).  Now add up each year's value to get the net present value of all your years of social security payments.  I assumed they would end at age 80.  Keep in mind that SSA is indexed for inflation, so be careful mixing real interest rates and inflation adjusted interest rates.  I assumed 3% above inflation interest rate, as I expect SSA to replace my bond allocation, since why keep anything in bonds if you have guaranteed income that covers about 75% of your budget?
« Last Edit: February 06, 2024, 09:54:48 PM by moof »

RedmondStash

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #31 on: February 06, 2024, 10:16:51 PM »
Two words: health care. (Or possibly one word, "healthcare," depending on who you ask.)

Health care costs are ridiculous in the U.S. and only getting more so. I suspect that negates any advantage to the larger SS benefit compared to Canada, and then some.

In terms of future projections, I created a spreadsheet with lots of scenarios. In some, I counted SS; in others, I didn't. That way, I can see how our finances play out over time (with average returns) in a variety of ways.

You don't have to make just one projection for your finances. You can peer into a number of potential futures. And you can know that all the projections are wrong, because the market doesn't follow a straight line. Which is another reason to create multiple projections, to take into account lots of variables. It's not an exact science, but at least with multiple projections, you can get a rough sense of likelihoods.

Dave1442397

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #32 on: February 07, 2024, 05:21:00 AM »
I do take SS into account. Using the SS website, our payments will be roughly $7k/month based on current projections. That alone is more than enough to pay monthly expenses, so it's something to consider.

If that ends up being the case, we'll have lots of extra cash for travel, etc :)

Must_ache

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #33 on: February 07, 2024, 09:00:15 AM »
Didn't the Trinity study find that the terminal value of any 75/25, 50/50, or 25/75 stock/bond portfolio after 30 years of 4% drawdowns was at least 40% greater than the starting value (with the typical being about 400% greater)?

It estimated that with an inflation-adjusted 4% withdrawal rate, those three scenarios had a 2%, 5%, and 29% probability of FAILING. 

The article does show terminal rates for 4% always being positive, but that is not the inflation-adjusted case (so should probably be ignored). 

Must_ache

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #34 on: February 07, 2024, 09:27:25 AM »
I'm sitting on $1.5M, so $60K/yr
Our approximate social security payout at age 62 is about $40K, so at 3% inflation $30K in today's dollars.
In my mind I'll probably spend $70K/yr in retirement, drawing a little bit more than I should in the first 10 years, but only needing $40K of my money in later years.
I also hope to made additional part-time income. 
 

secondcor521

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #35 on: February 07, 2024, 03:03:28 PM »
Our approximate social security payout at age 62 is about $40K, so at 3% inflation $30K in today's dollars.

No need to inflation adjust the number down.  SS is showing you $40K in today's dollars but they'll increase that by either inflation or wage growth between now and your age 62, so it still should be worth $40K in today's terms.

For the OP's question:

American, 54M, I include it by determining an SS income stream from age 70 to 85, taking a 23% haircut in the appropriate year, then taking an NPV, then adding that to my FIRE stash, then calculating 4% of that as my safe number.

Like @Retire-Canada, I added it to my spreadsheet when I was trying to reach FIRE.  Now that I'm well past that point, I still keep it in the spreadsheet mostly because it's more work to take out than it is to just leave it in there.  It's a small but noticeable portion of the overall picture.

YK-Phil

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #36 on: February 07, 2024, 03:56:47 PM »
I never considered CPP and OAS before I retired and treated these as gravy, but now three years into retirement, I realize that between CPP and OAS and our very low housing costs after we downsized and moved to a paid-off condo, I won't need to touch any of my RRSPs until I'm forced to do so at age 71.

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Re: How do you factor in your expected SS or CPP?
« Reply #37 on: February 07, 2024, 04:08:05 PM »
We also ignore it in our calculations. DH turns 40 today. He is 30 years away from his maximum benefit. Our plan needs to stand the test of time to get him there in good stead.

 

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