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Here's what the AOA says:
A relatively small number (1.5 million) and percentage (3.6%) of the 65+ population in 2011 lived in
institutional settings such as nursing homes (1.3 million). However, the percentage increases dramatically
with age, ranging (in 2011) from 1% for persons 65-74 years to 3% for persons 75-84 years and 11% for
persons 85+. In addition, in 2009, approximately 2.7% of the elderly lived in senior housing with at least
one supportive service available to their residents.
The odds are still overwhelmingly in your favor for not living in a nursing home, even at 85. And statistically, the odds are very high of you being dead by 85.
These statistics are misleadingly low.
They're not stating the percentage of people who end up in nursing homes - they're stating the percentage people who are living in nursing homes *right now*.
Let me give you an artificial example to show how the math works out:
- Assume you have a population of people who will all die at 85
- Furthermore, assume that 100% of the population will spend their last year in a nursing home
- Randomize the ages of the people
If you look at the population between 65 and 85 years old, because they're randomized 5% will be between the ages of 84-85 (the year they spend in the nursing home) at any given time.
However 100% of them are spending a year in the nursing home.
Real life is not quite like that, since the age at death is randomized, too. The math, however, works out similarly - the percentage of people who spend some time in a nursing home is higher than the percentage of people who are in a nursing home right now.
I unfortunately could not find a good source of statistics to get this number, but the National Hospice and Palliative Care Organization has some stats that hint that the number is higher than those given above.
(source:
http://www.nhpco.org/sites/default/files/public/Statistics_Research/2012_Facts_Figures.pdf)
Specifically, they state that 44.6% of the deaths in the US in 2012 were under Hospice care, and of those deaths, 18% were in a Nursing Home.
This puts a floor on the percentage of people who died in Nursing Homes at 44.6% of 18%, which is 8%.
This doesn't count the following people, however:
- The people who left a Nursing Home to die in a different location (at home, dedicated hospice facility)
- The people who died in a Nursing Home while not under Hospice Care
Therefore the actual number is likely to be considerably higher.