Just a note but how do "pretty frugal " and 3100 per month on childcare find their way into the sane sentence.
That's like saying look I'm pretty frugal but I eat caviar for lunch everyday.
Imo a pretty frugal person wouldn't ever spend close to 40k to take care of 2 kids. And this coming from an ultra high income couple that make almost 200k
And you're pretty frugal and going to continue to spend 900 a month on sports. You realize the outside is free right. There isn't a charge to walk out your door breathe air and play catch
This is fucking nuts.
This is going to depend entirely on where you live.
Some people are frugal, but have standards for child care. (It's a sliding scale.)
Some people are frugal, but have the "ivy league preschool syndrome".
Location matters. Boston, for example, is well known for the craziness of child care.
Assuming child care is compulsory (you need it), there will be a sliding scale. There's a "floor" (you can't go below it), and a "comfortable floor" (you don't want to go below it).
Around here, the "floor" is probably $150 a week for one child, and that will be a home daycare that is not licensed where the caregiver does not speak English. My floor is a bit higher than that.
At about $225 a week you have a large licensed childcare (8-12 children, 2 caregivers) where the caregivers are professionals but not necessarily educated. The kids will play and have fun, but aren't going to learn their letters or anything like that. (Whether or not you need that depends on the kindergarten requirements.)
At about $300 a week you are getting a smaller licensed childcare with a degreed professional, or for a toddler and up, a licensed preschool with teachers with bachelor's or associate's degrees.
At about $400 a week you can get private Montessori education, but the school day is 8:30 to 2:30, and that cost does not include summer or after school care.
At about $800 - 1000 a week, you can have a nanny (not live-in), and if you have multiple children, that might be less expensive.
So for preschool, for example, the "floor" is $850 a month (I have not found any below that, and $850 is a Christian preschool run by a church), and the "peak" is Montessori (actually, I'm sure the peak is some other private school that is so beyond my ability to pay that I have never looked it up). Montessori is $19,655 - which includes extended care for the school year, 6 weeks of summer camp with extended care. BUT, you will still have 4 more weeks of summer/ spring break camp to pay for, because there are 3 weeks in the summer that they are closed and they take 2 weeks off for spring break.
Of course, again, location dependent. I wouldn't pay that much for 2 kids, but I have other options. There are areas in this country where there really aren't any licensed options below that amount.