Who will admit they missed out on the last few years stock gains

[Dancin'Dog]

Me too.

About 1/2 of my NW is in liquid assets & about 1/3 of that sat in a money market at 2% last year.  It was tough news for me when I saw VIGAX gained 37% and VITAX gained over 48% in 2019.  I'm planning to rebalance soon. 

[Daisy]

Nope, just here to brag that all of my investments are in s&p index funds, so my accounts have boomed the last few years.

Don't worry, I'll be back here complaining when the market tanks ;)

 Ya, we are all going to have a big whine fest!

Not me!

 I'll bite,
How are taking advantage of these great market gains and then not have losses to whine about when the market tanks?

Oh, sorry about that. I was depending on large attention spans for people to remember from earlier in this thread that I was one of the ones sitting on too much cash throughout this market run up. So if there is a big market crash I can capitalize on that and I'm not one of the ones that would be whining then like I am whining now.

[MaaS]

Me. Starting in mid-April of 2019 I started keeping most of my new earnings in MM funds. I didn't sell existing  - but still have missed some upside. I deployed some of it into Amazon a few months back, however. I have no interest in buying the SP500 at this level.

I'm a slow learner, I guess :)

[Retire-Canada]

I have no interest in buying the SP500 at this level.

Hopefully you get a shot to buy it this cheap sometime in the future.

[BTDretire]

I have no interest in buying the SP500 at this level.

Hopefully you get a shot to buy it this cheap sometime in the future.

 Are you saying you want to see the value of my fully invested nest egg drop? :-)

[retired?]

I learned my lesson about timing when I rebalanced non-retiremement  (i.e. sold stock fund to put into bonds) in 2012 (or was it 2013?).  Reasoning was unbelievably unsophisticated "wow, it's already gone up so much".  Basically, the 2008 crash was still in my mind.

Since then retirement nearly 100% stock, non-retirement (aside from real estate) 80-90% plus in stock.  Keep about a years worth in cash (only 20k...wife still works).

Only 'mistake' I made was paying off primary residence mortgage in 2018.  Bought in 2013 with 3% loan.  In retrospect, it would have been better to not prepay, but it provided peace of mind and I don't view it as a true mistake like rebalancing in 2012/3.

Now, my allocation is solely based on the time horizon of my expenses.  Won't pull from tax-deferred for 10-12 plus years so more than fine with near 100%.  Am turning 51 soon.

[Daisy]

I just invested 1/12 of my cash position. I realize we're still at the levels of just this past November but it makes me feel good that I am buying on a dip. I've held this cash position too long.

[talltexan]

Yeah, a nice little downturn like what's going on this week makes a bunch of you feel better, amiright?

[Daisy]

Yeah, a nice little downturn like what's going on this week makes a bunch of you feel better, amiright?

Yes I know I should have gone all-in according to the best advice, but I am a wimp. At least I invested some of my cash aren't you happy? Haha

[Alternatepriorities]

I think we've almost erased anything I missed waiting to file my taxes and just in time for the numbers to be back. Turns out my October estimate for the ideal contribution was way high so I might win after all.

[MayDay]

My dad did. Part of it makes sense as he is approaching retirement. But he went overboard because he was convinced the market would tank.

We give him a ton of crap for it.

Luckily my mom.let me put her small 401k in all index funds. She gets a pension too, so the 401k is extra spending money, this she can afford to take the risk. So she got a nice 3 years of growth that should more than make up for any future downturns.

[talltexan]

Am I correct that $100 on election night 2016 would be about $150 now? ($SPY)

So a bear market (they average 35%) would only take you back down to where it was in Nov. 2016?

[Alternatepriorities]

Am I correct that $100 on election night 2016 would be about $150 now? ($SPY)

So a bear market (they average 35%) would only take you back down to where it was in Nov. 2016?

That seams like an oddly specific date range, but looking at VTSAX (my largest holding) that's about right except it would need to fall another 35% from the current price to reach it's adjusted value on Nov 7th 2016 which would be a 40% drop from the high.

[Alternatepriorities]

I think we've almost erased anything I missed waiting to file my taxes and just in time for the numbers to be back. Turns out my October estimate for the ideal contribution was way high so I might win after all.

My tax calculations are done, so I'm back to my normal asset allocation... Time in the market right???

[centwise]

Me. Hoarded cash :(
My username is intended to remind you of the saying "penny-wise and pound foolish".

[br89]

Me. But I had a number of major expenses (engagement ring, large wedding, attended dozens of weddings, bought house, furnished house, bought cheap/used car, finished paying off my student loans, finished paying off husband's credit card debt, also had no income for a few months as I transitioned into a new career) and felt obligated to put 2.5 years worth of our joint living expenses into a high yield savings account since husband doesn't earn an income and my income, while substantial, is highly unstable and largely dependent on a good economy. If there's a recession, I doubt I'll make anything close to what I'm currently making. I've always maxed out my 401k, so I haven't *completely* missed out, but I only now feel stable/secure enough to begin aggressively investing post-tax money into stocks. No regrets though - I value peace of mind over completely maximizing my net worth. But anyway, I'm pretty pumped to finally start pumping money into the market - better (a few years) late than never!

[Daisy]

I bought some more VTI today!

[Alternatepriorities]

I think we've almost erased anything I missed waiting to file my taxes and just in time for the numbers to be back. Turns out my October estimate for the ideal contribution was way high so I might win after all.

My tax calculations are done, so I'm back to my normal asset allocation... Time in the market right???

Well damn...

[londonbanker]

My NW took a $150k hit since last Friday. Although not great, I dont feel too bad as I still have a lot of liquidity to invest (25% of my NW in cash)... i am going to make the best of the next few weeks to get fully invested. Bring on the bear market!

[elaine amj]

Yeah, a nice little downturn like what's going on this week makes a bunch of you feel better, amiright?

Yes I know I should have gone all-in according to the best advice, but I am a wimp. At least I invested some of my cash aren't you happy? Haha

Good for u! We are still hemming and hawing. DH insists the market will continue to drop. I think we have easily $50-100k more in cash than we shouldand he's finally agreeing that it should get invested. So my current thought is to convince him to let me put $10k/week in for the next 10 weeks. Less efficient but maybe less nerve-wrecking :)

I am also a bit unsure what to do now. We have $150k in a 403(b) that we plan to rollover into an IRA and probably just put all of it into VTSAX. But this means selling off all those funds now and turning around and buying VTSAX in a few days to a week. Going to be hard to pull the trigger. Maybe if I squeeze my eyes real tight?

Sent from my VCE-AL00 using Tapatalk

[Alternatepriorities]

I am also a bit unsure what to do now. We have $150k in a 403(b) that we plan to rollover into an IRA and probably just put all of it into VTSAX. But this means selling off all those funds now and turning around and buying VTSAX in a few days to a week. Going to be hard to pull the trigger. Maybe if I squeeze my eyes real tight?

The next couple of weeks could be a very good time to be out of the market... or a very bad time. If I knew the answer, you would probably know my name...

[Daisy]

Yeah, a nice little downturn like what's going on this week makes a bunch of you feel better, amiright?

Yes I know I should have gone all-in according to the best advice, but I am a wimp. At least I invested some of my cash aren't you happy? Haha

Good for u! We are still hemming and hawing. DH insists the market will continue to drop. I think we have easily $50-100k more in cash than we shouldand he's finally agreeing that it should get invested. So my current thought is to convince him to let me put $10k/week in for the next 10 weeks. Less efficient but maybe less nerve-wrecking :)

I am also a bit unsure what to do now. We have $150k in a 403(b) that we plan to rollover into an IRA and probably just put all of it into VTSAX. But this means selling off all those funds now and turning around and buying VTSAX in a few days to a week. Going to be hard to pull the trigger. Maybe if I squeeze my eyes real tight?

Sent from my VCE-AL00 using Tapatalk

Hey elaine amj!!!

I didn't realize you and I were in the same predicament with too much cash.

I bought even more VTI today as the Dow went below 25,000.

If you read the headlines, the global central bank system is thinking of acting this weekend to pump liquidity in the market. They will do their best to avoid a larger market crash. I hope they are right and successful!

I stayed in too much cash over the past few years and am grateful I had this opportunity to buy in at a lower price. I know it's not what I should have done (too much cash), but I feel I was given a chance to rectify my previous mistakes.

Hopefully I won't get yelled at the the next CM*TO!

[Daisy]

Yeah, a nice little downturn like what's going on this week makes a bunch of you feel better, amiright?

Yes I know I should have gone all-in according to the best advice, but I am a wimp. At least I invested some of my cash aren't you happy? Haha

Good for u! We are still hemming and hawing. DH insists the market will continue to drop. I think we have easily $50-100k more in cash than we shouldand he's finally agreeing that it should get invested. So my current thought is to convince him to let me put $10k/week in for the next 10 weeks. Less efficient but maybe less nerve-wrecking :)

I am also a bit unsure what to do now. We have $150k in a 403(b) that we plan to rollover into an IRA and probably just put all of it into VTSAX. But this means selling off all those funds now and turning around and buying VTSAX in a few days to a week. Going to be hard to pull the trigger. Maybe if I squeeze my eyes real tight?

Sent from my VCE-AL00 using Tapatalk

Do you really have to sell if you are doing a rollover? Can't you just transfer the securities you own in a rollover?

[wageslave23]

Yeah, a nice little downturn like what's going on this week makes a bunch of you feel better, amiright?

Yes I know I should have gone all-in according to the best advice, but I am a wimp. At least I invested some of my cash aren't you happy? Haha

Good for u! We are still hemming and hawing. DH insists the market will continue to drop. I think we have easily $50-100k more in cash than we shouldand he's finally agreeing that it should get invested. So my current thought is to convince him to let me put $10k/week in for the next 10 weeks. Less efficient but maybe less nerve-wrecking :)

I am also a bit unsure what to do now. We have $150k in a 403(b) that we plan to rollover into an IRA and probably just put all of it into VTSAX. But this means selling off all those funds now and turning around and buying VTSAX in a few days to a week. Going to be hard to pull the trigger. Maybe if I squeeze my eyes real tight?

Sent from my VCE-AL00 using Tapatalk

Do you really have to sell if you are doing a rollover? Can't you just transfer the securities you own in a rollover?

I would just wait to do the rollover until the market settles down. 

[elaine amj]

Getting out of a 403(b) with a million different investments all with high MERs. So I don't want to do it in-kind. But u make a good point. I will leave one 403b with $110k alone as it has low MERs. So will just rollover $40k into Vanguard and deal with whatever fallout.

Also, I realized I actually have $150k, not $100k that needs to be invested. So I just dumped another $50k into the market today. I figure the markets will probably go down so will dollar cost average a bit (so our heart can handle it haha) and add $10k every week for the next 10 weeks. Just need to make a standing appointment with myself to shift money around.

Sent from my VCE-AL00 using Tapatalk

[Buffaloski Boris]

Hey elaine amj!!!

I didn't realize you and I were in the same predicament with too much cash.

I bought even more VTI today as the Dow went below 25,000.

If you read the headlines, the global central bank system is thinking of acting this weekend to pump liquidity in the market. They will do their best to avoid a larger market crash. I hope they are right and successful!

I stayed in too much cash over the past few years and am grateful I had this opportunity to buy in at a lower price. I know it's not what I should have done (too much cash), but I feel I was given a chance to rectify my previous mistakes.

Hopefully I won't get yelled at the the next CM*TO!

Hmmm.  The central banks will try to pump liquidity, but it this is a full-blown, bonafide panic, it won't help for all that long.  If you look at previous crashes, they're usually not linear.  The stocks drop, then they recover, then they go back down, recover a bit, plunge again. Look at an S+P chart for late 2008 as an example. 

The depth of this plunge leads me to think it might have legs.  Plus I happen to think the US market is just plain overpriced anyway.  Of course we'll only for sure know by looking at it in the rear view mirror.   

[BlueMR2]

And after showing and then imploring my wife to shove the GD lot into something - anything - a Vanguard 2040.... I sat that moment - fatefully entering the data into the online calculator to see what might have been. And then promptly running to the bathroom to wretch out all the missed opportunity.

That's how I feel about my early 2000's...  I got burned BAD in the '90's and not yet understanding how the market works, I moved everything to cash and just sat on it until oh, 2010 or so...  Oh, the missed opportunities.  I could be a multi-millionaire living on my own private island (well, maybe not, but you know...).

[Daisy]

Hey elaine amj!!!

I didn't realize you and I were in the same predicament with too much cash.

I bought even more VTI today as the Dow went below 25,000.

If you read the headlines, the global central bank system is thinking of acting this weekend to pump liquidity in the market. They will do their best to avoid a larger market crash. I hope they are right and successful!

I stayed in too much cash over the past few years and am grateful I had this opportunity to buy in at a lower price. I know it's not what I should have done (too much cash), but I feel I was given a chance to rectify my previous mistakes.

Hopefully I won't get yelled at the the next CM*TO!

Hmmm.  The central banks will try to pump liquidity, but it this is a full-blown, bonafide panic, it won't help for all that long.  If you look at previous crashes, they're usually not linear.  The stocks drop, then they recover, then they go back down, recover a bit, plunge again. Look at an S+P chart for late 2008 as an example. 

The depth of this plunge leads me to think it might have legs.  Plus I happen to think the US market is just plain overpriced anyway.  Of course we'll only for sure know by looking at it in the rear view mirror.   

I have invested almost all of my cash now but I still have some left and if it falls more I will buy more!

[Chris Pascale]

I withdrew $10k from my Roth thinking I was timing the market. I lost $1800 in gains on that money.

[talltexan]

I feel like 80-20 has been a good place for me. I see the market gyrations, (along with a lower net worth on mint), but I know I have some cushion, and it helps me sleep.

[Daisy]

As of today I have fully invested all of the cash I had sitting on the sidelines. Let the markets begin to roar again!

Now I feel like I can join the cool kids on the MMM forum and no longer need to hang my head in shame.

[Helvegen]

I wish I had known about indexing or investing in 2011, when I finally had money to invest when the economy started to recover and I wasn't paranoid about losing everything and being homeless. But it took until 2012 or 2013, whenever I watched Frontline's The Retirement Gamble, for me to finally get and understand investing at the most rudimentary level at all. 2014 was our first year of serious investing. I still recommend it to anyone interesting in learning how to invest.

[Davnasty]

As of today I have fully invested all of the cash I had sitting on the sidelines. Let the markets begin to roar again!

Now I feel like I can join the cool kids on the MMM forum and no longer need to hang my head in shame.

High Five!*

*In the event the top is in, this high five is null and void**

**Is null and void redundant?

[Daisy]

As of today I have fully invested all of the cash I had sitting on the sidelines. Let the markets begin to roar again!

Now I feel like I can join the cool kids on the MMM forum and no longer need to hang my head in shame.

High Five!*

*In the event the top is in, this high five is null and void**

**Is null and void redundant?

Are you testing me? Just as I got over my fears of buying at a high now the fears are creeping back in thanks to your comment. Damn you!

Just kidding. I am already FIREd so I made sure to keep about a years and a half worth still in cash. Even if the market keeps fluctuating I will be fine for a while!

But I am SURE I picked the bottom. You will see! Okay maybe I'm not that sure but I'm fine with it.

[elaine amj]

As of today I have fully invested all of the cash I had sitting on the sidelines. Let the markets begin to roar again!

Now I feel like I can join the cool kids on the MMM forum and no longer need to hang my head in shame.

Congrats! I am planning to put the money in later this week. We are not as hardy as you so planning to put in 10% every week for the next 10 weeks.

Sent from my VCE-AL00 using Tapatalk

[Dancin'Dog]

I tripped up and bought at the peak.  Still safe with 4-5 years of cash on hand, but it's obvious that I'll be learning from this for quite a while.  Hopefully, things won't get as bad as they might. 


I saw that Buffett purchased 1M shares of Delta, which I'd have thought would keep falling as air travel should be hit harder than any industry I can think of.  So, I'm hoping that is a good sign for the rest of us. 


I have some real estate for sale, and am crossing my fingers about whether the economy will be favorable with getting it sold & also having somewhere to invest the precedes.  Finances are like a soap opera...full of suspense & surprises, and the story just goes on & on.  ;) 


FIRE'd is great, but it still feels like a job at times. 

[BlueHouse]

This thread is starting to sound more like "who's trying to time the market (still)".

And I'll admit it!  I panicked two weeks ago when the markets cratered.  Thank goodness I only did it in my 401K, where I limit the damage I can do to myself by ONLY having index funds (no ETFs, so I'm not tempted to day-trade).  And where I can't access the money and take it out.  So I moved $250K into a cash position and then panicked again thinking "shit, how do I get back in without locking in my panic-losses? 

Luckily for me, this week happened and I've been buying back in and now I only have $75K still sitting in a cash money market.  So I'll probably move back into VTSAX today and tomorrow.  I'm sure it will probably stay down or go lower over the few weeks, but I'm just happy to get back in to erase the mistake I made panic-selling and maybe have a little bump from getting good buys this week.    I'll have to check the number of shares I own before and after to know for sure how I do.

 Once I'm fully back in the market, I'm not looking anymore.  (I know I say this every time, but I really mean it!)

[projekt]

I know someone who paid 1.5%/year to a financial advisor who kept them in mostly bonds for the last few years, despite the fact that all of their day-to-day expenses were amply covered by pensions. After expenses, they would have been better off holding cash. There are some real parasites on the system.

[BlueHouse]

I know someone who paid 1.5%/year to a financial advisor who kept them in mostly bonds for the last few years, despite the fact that all of their day-to-day expenses were amply covered by pensions. After expenses, they would have been better off holding cash. There are some real parasites on the system.

ugh.  This makes me sick to my stomach.  I'm helping my mom with her finances and it's so hard.  She's of that age where she only wants to believe an old white dude and not her daughter.  :(

[Jack0Life]

I have no problem admitting that I tried timing the market.
I did horrible when Trump won and I pulled all my money out for a year waiting for the market to go down.
This time around I timed it just about right.
We pulled about $200k out of VTSAX and into VBTLX right before the market went down for 7 consecutive days.
I put the rest into VBTLX when Biden won the Tuesday election.
The bad news for me is that the bonds market been dropping like a rock too the last 3 days.
My wife also has about $15k in 401k at her new job that she refused to pull out when I pleaded with her several times to do it.
My wife's been telling me to put everything back for the past week. Told her its just the beginning.
I can see the market dropping 50% similar to 2008-2009.
We'll see where this ride will take us.

[talltexan]

Rebalanced to 80/20 at start of February. Will try to hold until start of May, when I rebalance again.

[J.R. Ewing]

About 75% cash waiting for the right time to get back in.  These 4% up days make me just a tad uncomfortable, but there's plenty more pain to come.  Don't want to buy in too early.

[Mr. Green]

About 75% cash waiting for the right time to get back in.  These 4% up days make me just a tad uncomfortable, but there's plenty more pain to come.  Don't want to buy in too early.

Yesterday was it.

[talltexan]

It definitely is remarkable how much prices change just within a single trading session these days.

[Jack0Life]

About 75% cash waiting for the right time to get back in.  These 4% up days make me just a tad uncomfortable, but there's plenty more pain to come.  Don't want to buy in too early.

Yesterday was it.

Me and a friend of mine thought so too but the market is taking a huge beating today.
I was waiting till the Dow dropping under 20k to start buying back and I thought maybe I missed my chance with the rally on Friday but it looks like the market may drop 50% before it gets better.
I think I may start buying back in increments when the market gets below 20k.
I thought I was doing good with all my investments in bond funds but that too is taking a beating.

[Daisy]

Boy do I feel foolish. I have been waiting 3 to 4 years in too much cash waiting for a nice correction. I did go all-in as I mentioned earlier about a week or so ago when the Dow was at around 26,000. If only I would have waited for this week! I know I'll be fine in the long run but I was the one saying that we were due for a decent correction and I acted a little too soon. Oh well...

These really are unprecedented times and I never thought what is currently happening would happen in the markets. This is nothing like the crash of 87, the tech bubble crash, or the Great Recession of 2008. I know it will all be good in the long run. Good thing I saved about 2 years worth in cash so this baby better go back up in the next couple of years!

[Jack0Life]

Boy do I feel foolish. I have been waiting 3 to 4 years in too much cash waiting for a nice correction. I did go all-in as I mentioned earlier about a week or so ago when the Dow was at around 26,000. If only I would have waited for this week! I know I'll be fine in the long run but I was the one saying that we were due for a decent correction and I acted a little too soon. Oh well...

These really are unprecedented times and I never thought what is currently happening would happen in the markets. This is nothing like the crash of 87, the tech bubble crash, or the Great Recession of 2008. I know it will all be good in the long run. Good thing I saved about 2 years worth in cash so this baby better go back up in the next couple of years!

Really sorry to see that.
The Dow is down ~20,000 after and if any of us knew the market would be at 20,000 a month ago, we all would have pour money in. That's 9000 below the high.
As I said I would put increments once the Dow hits 20k and I did a very small part. It was only $20k but I was even hesitant of that. I honestly think it could easily drop to 15,000.

[HBFIRE]

well this thread didn't age well

[HBFIRE]

Good thing I saved about 2 years worth in cash so this baby better go back up in the next couple of years!

If there's anything I've learned from this recent crash is that having a robust emergency fund is DEFINITELY worth it.  Just being able to have no stress during a time like this alone is worth it.  I would hate to be 100% leveraged in stocks and selling stock right now.  Cash is king in times like this......can't wait for real estate opportunities.  We have about 2 yrs of cash and also I have another 1-1.5 yrs liquid in my business.  If real estate corrects which I expect it will, I'll be looking to finally buy into this expensive market locally.  I'm now of the mind that 2 yrs emergency fund in cash or cash equivalent is about where I want to be.

[camwoodsum]

I will also admit it...put in a fair amount of money in December (close to the peak) and now it's plummeting...

You live and you learn.