Where do you stand on "living with Covid", "getting back to normal"

[Arbitrage]

Covid vaccines and now boosters are here, treatments for those who get the disease continue to improve, and death rates are falling.  The virus isn't going away, and will be with us forever like common cold and flu.  The world is open - football stadiums are full of fans, Broadway shows have reopened, etc. 

I would take some issue with the 'death rates are falling' clause.  Deaths are still unacceptably high, in my opinion, and I think there's a false narrative out there (parroted to me by a relative recently) that people aren't dying of it anymore.  ~1300 Americans are still dying daily from COVID, close to half million per year at that rate.  Not even remotely comparable to the flu by that metric, which people often compare it to.  I do agree that it will be with us forever in some form.

Which activities have you resumed doing and which ones are you not ready for yet, if ever?  If you are still holding back from a pre-pandemic activity, do you have some type of metric that will make it okay for you again?

Indoor gatherings with friends?  Vaccinated people only? Yes, with vaccinated friends, and families whom we know take prudent precautions.
Working on site? When required.  Mostly work from home, from 1200 miles away.
Church? Did go some in the summer, but halted when the Delta surge started really hitting our area.  Biggest concern was for our 5-11 kids, and the lack of enforcement of masking.  Now that our kids are vaccinated, will look to resume.
Gym? Work out at home.  I did go to a class with some friends recently.  May start at a climbing gym soon.
Getting on an airplane? I've done this on multiple occasions, with appropriate precautions.
Going maskless in public (retail stores, grocery stores)?  Not indoors
Indoor restaurants that aren't busy?  Indoor restaurants with someone at every table?  Yes, though there is probably a "packing factor" at which I would beg off.
Outdoor stadiums that aren't completely full?  Outdoor stadiums at full capacity?  Did a low capacity outdoor baseball game.  Not interested in a crowded stadium.
Indoor stadiums (theatre, concerts, sporting events) that aren't completely full?  Indoor stadiums at full capacity?
Going to a bar? Might consider it if not too crowded.  Not a big part of my life before COVID.

Do you participate in some of these activities but then might take a 10 break if you are going to visit someone who you are afraid of passing the virus to?

In general, our calculus is changing, as we are now just days away from our kids - one who is immunocompromised - reaching full vaccination status.  Hopefully Omicron doesn't screw that up our plans too much.

[roomtempmayo]

We're in an area of high transmission right now, and our risk tolerance is pretty high largely because we've both been working face to face with high density institutional populations throughout the pandemic.  When you're exposed all day long to people living in group settings, it feels a little silly to get super anxious about Covid when we're on our own time.  We're conscious about spreading anything we might catch to others, but otherwise we don't fret too much.  We're double-vaxed and boosted, both because it's good sense and because it's a condition of our employment.

At this point, we're in the "rule followers" category outlined above. 

We wear masks in stores because it's part of our local (blue, urban) culture as much as because of particular health concerns.

We both eat in restaurants as a required part of our employment, and occationally on our own time.

We haven't done the gym, church, concerts, or sporting events indoors during the pandemic.  Mostly we haven't gone back because we don't miss them much.  Mountain biking > Peloton every time.

We're starting to schedule for the spring and summer, and both personal and work travel are starting to look much more normal.  When I get on a plane, I will definitely strap on an N95 for my own safety.

Couple more notes:

- We don't know a single person socially who has gotten Covid outside of a couple frontline medical providers right at the start of the pandemic.  Since vaccines, zero.  Covid feels a little abstract because while we chatter about it socially, nobody actually gets it.

- If I were a parent, I would be absolutely enraged at daycares and schools that seem to use the slightest sniffle to shut the place down and throw parents' lives into chaos.  Locally, our private schools sure seem to be a lot more motivated to keep kids in the desks than the public schools, and for those of us who care about educational inequality that should be a problem.

- It's been interesting to watch the return to work social dynamics.  I've seen lots of staff really drag their feet on coming back to the office and insist that working from home is perfectly fine, but then once they're back in the office they're upset that some people are still working from home.  Everyone wants to be the last one working in sweatpants, but eventually most people are going to have to summon the courage to don their hard pants again.

- Talking to a couple people reasonably high up at Fortune 100-500 companies in retail and medicine (not tech), their feeling is that their WFH policies will remain permissive until the next major economic shock at which point they'll have leverage to restore office normalcy.  I know quite a few folks who aren't making major life changes based on WFH policies because they don't believe they'll be permanent. 

[Captain FIRE]

- It's been interesting to watch the return to work social dynamics.  I've seen lots of staff really drag their feet on coming back to the office and insist that working from home is perfectly fine, but then once they're back in the office they're upset that some people are still working from home.  Everyone wants to be the last one working in sweatpants, but eventually most people are going to have to summon the courage to don their hard pants again.

Why? 

I question this assumption that people will have to return.  Many people demonstrated they can successfully do most if not all of their job remotely.  (Obviously, some failed and require additional supervision or were terminated. That will always be the case that some rise to meet challenges and some fail.)  At the same time, there is a great resignation going on and employers are finding it hard to hire.  There are additional benefits to working from home: reduced office costs, commute cost, reduced environmental impact, allowing flexibility in work schedules which benefits both employer and employee, and promoting a positive work/life balance.

Why do we have to return? 

I worked 1/day a week remote till the pandemic hit, then went 100% remote.  Six months ago I took a promotion at a different location that requires 100% in person.  However, I am not allowed on campus whenever my family gets sick so I work remotely then for up to a few weeks at a time (2 daycare kids get sick not infrequently).  If someone could package up my mail I could work 100% remotely, if not, I only need to go in once every two weeks.  For me, if they don't establish a telework policy (as they are required to do so by the overall organization), once I vest my pension in ~6 months (to 1.5 years to give me more experience in this position), I will seriously consider looking for a new job where I can work remotely at least part of the time.  Honestly, my ideal would be 1/day in 4 out, but I'd accept 3 in/2 out.

[roomtempmayo]

Why? 

I question this assumption that people will have to return.  Many people demonstrated they can successfully do most if not all of their job remotely. 

I don't deny that many people can do their jobs well from home.

What I think is understated though, is that lots and lots of companies want their workers back.  According to a survey reported on in Forbes in October, "Executives who work remotely are nearly three times more likely than employees to prefer returning to the office full-time."  https://www.forbes.com/sites/edwardsegal/2021/10/05/the-great-disconnect-many-more-employers-than-workers-want-to-return-to-offices/?sh=ffcbde71ad3d

And lots of places have been bringing them back already.  Per Gallup, in spring 2020,  69% of the workforce had some WFH option.  By September 2021, we were hovering in the mid-40% range. 

People who are 100% WFH have already been cut more than in half since spring 2020 (54% to 25%).  The trends are already clearly in the direction of a return to the office, and a majority of people already have zero WFH option.  https://news.gallup.com/poll/355907/remote-work-persisting-trending-permanent.aspx

If the employer wants the worker in the office and the worker wants to be at home, the only real question is the balance of power between them.  Now, the workers have the power, and they're at home.  In the future, they probably won't have the same power, and they'll be in their desks. 

Of course that doesn't say anything about whether any particular job, or company, or field will reach a given new normal.  Certainly there will be more remote work than in the before-times.  But if we were taking bets on whether we'll be more than our current 45% remote or less in five years, I'd put my money on less than 45%. 

[Turtle]

5 people whom I knew personally have passed away from Covid, the youngest of whom was in his 20's.  2 of them left young children behind.

I'm 1 degree of separation away from scores more Covid victims (Friends or family of acquaintances of mine.)

Everyone in my family is vaxxed and most are boosted, but I'm still cautious because there's a person in my household currently undergoing chemo.  Mask wearing reduces all kinds of germs, so why wouldn't I?

[LongtimeLurker]

Been in the "back to normal" camp since last March, when vaccines first became widely available. Life is full of risks, and if you look at the actual risk of death for your age and vaccination status, its not much different than plenty of other diseases you never cared about. Its crazy to imagine its been 2 years. If not back to normal now, then when? I was extremely cautious in the winter of 2020, and basically lived like a hermit, knowing vaccines were right around the corner. I feel like I did my duty and am now free to enjoy life again. I accept there is still a very small risk I could have a breakthrough case and die. Its probably along the same lines as dying in any number of other ways. I don't follow CDC guidance anymore because I believe that they don't know what they are doing and/or lie for political purposes.

Once I was fully vaxxed it was back to normal, no looking back.

[Jon Bon]

Been in the "back to normal" camp since last March, when vaccines first became widely available. Life is full of risks, and if you look at the actual risk of death for your age and vaccination status, its not much different than plenty of other diseases you never cared about. Its crazy to imagine its been 2 years. If not back to normal now, then when? I was extremely cautious in the winter of 2020, and basically lived like a hermit, knowing vaccines were right around the corner. I feel like I did my duty and am now free to enjoy life again. I accept there is still a very small risk I could have a breakthrough case and die. Its probably along the same lines as dying in any number of other ways. I don't follow CDC guidance anymore because I believe that they don't know what they are doing and/or lie for political purposes.

Once I was fully vaxxed it was back to normal, no looking back.

My whole family (including kids) got covid last November, and once that cat was out of the bag I was pretty much back to normal.

Another poster commented about 1000 people die from Covid every day, which is concerning, but not that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things. Before everyone jumps down my throat. ~7000 Americans die every day. No one gets excited about such things.


Type               Total     Daily
Heart disease   659,041    1,806
Cancer           599,601    1,643
Accidents           173,040    474
respiratory diseases   156,979    430
Stroke            150,005    411
Alzheimer’s    121,499    333
Diabetes           87,647    240
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis   51,565    141
Influenza and pneumonia   49,783    136

Source: CDC https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm

The reasoning for not being back to normal is that despite being triple vaxed is they are worried about spreading it to someone who at risk and could hurt. And they are completely right in that fact! My question is that is there ever a level of covid deaths that people will get back to normal? Or is this all just an excursive in human psychology and not epidemiology?

The flu is a great example, no one wore masks (save for 1918) and the flu was regularly spread around to all sorts of vulnerable people. Lots of people died almost exclusively the very old and very young. The flu has always been pretty dangerous but no one really cared. I never wore a mask with a concern about the flu, it never even cross my mind. Now I realize that 136 deaths a day < 1000 a day. However what has to happen for folks who are continuing to live very different lives due to covid to get back to the one they would be living without it.

I am speaking to activities you likely would have done before but still don't feel comfortable doing now. Is there a level where you will ever feel comfortable?


 

[PDXTabs]

The flu is a great example, no one wore masks (save for 1918) and the flu was regularly spread around to all sorts of vulnerable people. Lots of people died almost exclusively the very old and very young. The flu has always been pretty dangerous but no one really cared. I never wore a mask with a concern about the flu, it never even cross my mind. Now I realize that 136 deaths a day < 1000 a day. However what has to happen for folks who are continuing to live very different lives due to covid to get back to the one they would be living without it.

That's not really true. The 1918 flu was particularly notable because of the spike in deaths in the 25-34 cohort compared to a normal year. That's one of the reasons that it was so devastating.

Most influenza outbreaks disproportionately kill the young and old, with a higher survival rate in-between, but this pandemic had unusually high mortality for young adults.



deaths per 100,000 persons in each age group

[mathlete]

Yes, 7K-8K people die every day from non-COVID reasons, but our healthcare system is largely built around this level of morbidity and mortality.

The healthcare system bears a tremendous cost every time someone gets sick from COVID. 78% of ICU beds are in use currently, and one quarter of them are being used for COVID patients. Cases are mostly flat right now, but the percentage of COVID tests that come back positive has gone from ~4% to ~7% over the past few weeks. The percent positivity is often a leading indicator of cases and hospitalizations.

It won't take much of an increase before we're back where we were with the Delta wave. ICUs full. Patients (COVID or not) having to be CareFlighted to hospitals hundreds of miles away at the cost of tens of thousands of dollars either to themselves, insurance companies, or government programs like Medicare/Medicaid.

We're burning out doctors, nurses, and healthcare support staff. Some of our most important workers. 20% have already left their jobs, with some leaving healthcare in full. This training, expertise, and manpower takes years to replace.

tl;dr, bad COVID numbers are more than just the toll of human life lost. It makes healthcare more expensive lower quality for everyone.

So while my personal risk of COVID is low, the stakes are very high in aggregate.

-vaxxed and boosted
-mask indoors everywhere unless it's a small gathering with other vaccinated people I know personally
-still WFH
-still leaning heavily on outdoor gatherings with friends and family and doing stuff like game night over the web

[Cranky]

5 people whom I knew personally have passed away from Covid, the youngest of whom was in his 20's.  2 of them left young children behind.

I'm 1 degree of separation away from scores more Covid victims (Friends or family of acquaintances of mine.)

Everyone in my family is vaxxed and most are boosted, but I'm still cautious because there's a person in my household currently undergoing chemo.  Mask wearing reduces all kinds of germs, so why wouldn't I?

I think a lot depends on whether you know people who have gotten sick. We knew several people who were very sick at the beginning of the pandemic - one died and one has some long term problems from being on a vent for so long.

We also know several people who have have had break through infections and been sick enough to be pretty miserable.

[Arbitrage]

Another poster commented about 1000 people die from Covid every day, which is concerning, but not that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things. Before everyone jumps down my throat. ~7000 Americans die every day. No one gets excited about such things.

I'm well aware of the normal death rates in the USA with/without Covid, and think that people absolutely do get excited about such things.  Covid has basically added another cancer to our death rate.  It's an enormous contribution (currently).  You don't think people would be excited about curing cancer?  It absolutely is a big deal, and I wholeheartedly disagree with you on that point.

Beyond that, our health system clearly wasn't built to handle this huge additional, irregular surge in demand, as was pointed out by another poster. 

That said, it's clearly here to stay, with or without restrictions.  I'm just not throwing in the towel on a half million deaths per annum being here to stay.  That's not to say that I'm throwing in the towel on getting back to the old normal, either...just that I've still got a fair distance from that point.  I do think we are opening to relaxing some of our precautions, now that my kids finally were able to get vaccinated, knowing that any breakthrough infections will likely be significantly less severe.

[Villanelle]

We're in an area of high transmission right now, and our risk tolerance is pretty high largely because we've both been working face to face with high density institutional populations throughout the pandemic.  When you're exposed all day long to people living in group settings, it feels a little silly to get super anxious about Covid when we're on our own time.  We're conscious about spreading anything we might catch to others, but otherwise we don't fret too much.  We're double-vaxed and boosted, both because it's good sense and because it's a condition of our employment.

At this point, we're in the "rule followers" category outlined above. 

We wear masks in stores because it's part of our local (blue, urban) culture as much as because of particular health concerns.

We both eat in restaurants as a required part of our employment, and occationally on our own time.

We haven't done the gym, church, concerts, or sporting events indoors during the pandemic.  Mostly we haven't gone back because we don't miss them much.  Mountain biking > Peloton every time.

We're starting to schedule for the spring and summer, and both personal and work travel are starting to look much more normal.  When I get on a plane, I will definitely strap on an N95 for my own safety.

Couple more notes:

- We don't know a single person socially who has gotten Covid outside of a couple frontline medical providers right at the start of the pandemic.  Since vaccines, zero.  Covid feels a little abstract because while we chatter about it socially, nobody actually gets it.

- If I were a parent, I would be absolutely enraged at daycares and schools that seem to use the slightest sniffle to shut the place down and throw parents' lives into chaos.  Locally, our private schools sure seem to be a lot more motivated to keep kids in the desks than the public schools, and for those of us who care about educational inequality that should be a problem.

- It's been interesting to watch the return to work social dynamics.  I've seen lots of staff really drag their feet on coming back to the office and insist that working from home is perfectly fine, but then once they're back in the office they're upset that some people are still working from home.  Everyone wants to be the last one working in sweatpants, but eventually most people are going to have to summon the courage to don their hard pants again.

- Talking to a couple people reasonably high up at Fortune 100-500 companies in retail and medicine (not tech), their feeling is that their WFH policies will remain permissive until the next major economic shock at which point they'll have leverage to restore office normalcy.  I know quite a few folks who aren't making major life changes based on WFH policies because they don't believe they'll be permanent.

The bolded is pretty shocking to me.  My sister (and her spouse) had it, fairly early on, but she worked in death investigation and was still working full time with a fair amount of exposure, so that wasn't a suprise.  At the moment, 2 of my closest friends and their families have it.  They live nowhere near each other (one in California, one in England).  Both are vaccinated, but have young kids that are not.  My mother-in-law and brother-in-law (who lives with her) had it a few months ago. My best friend's brother (who has long Covid and more than a year after infection has significant symptoms).  And I could name at least a dozen other people in my larger social circle without thinking very hard.  Plus, people DH has worked with, friends of friends who I've met in passing, etc. 

And I'm a bit of an introvert, so I'd say my social circle is smaller than average, though likely much more geographical diverse than average. 

[MrsV]

I live in an Australian state that has largely been shut off to the rest of the country, and of course, our entire country has been largely shut off from the world. So, until this week (we opened borders Monday), we've really lived quite freely. Our premier still posts a daily update of case numbers, deaths etc ... it feels a bit out of touch now that we are coming on three years of living with this, to be honest, and perhaps reporting severe cases or hospitalisations is more realistic. We've only recorded seven deaths in the state the entire time, for the record.

I read a lot of overseas news and chat with friends, and I am always interested in reading these threads here because I feel like what you are all living will soon be our reality. We've been in a bubble - a bubble that I'm grateful for as I have a teenage son with a severe respiratory illness.  He is well known at the emergency department and has regular appointments at the hospital with the respiratory team, who have been amazing. He is on immunosuppressant drugs (basically, his white blood cells have been attacking his respiratory system and stomach lining even - missed for years as it is pretty rare, and even more rare in kids). So, as we are now moving to 'living with covid',  I have no idea where this leaves him and whether the drugs will make him more vulnerable than he would be untreated.

Our state is now open, and I suspect we will know more about what 'living with Covid' really means within a month. Masks are off here for now, though we wore them for months. We are at about an 80% double vax figure. Boosters are starting to roll out if you are due (more than five months since the last shot). We check-in everywhere we go with an app that scans our details - but, given the fact that if you are a close contact you have to quarantine for two weeks regardless of a negative test, I hear of young people saying they just won't be checking in as they can't afford to miss work. This morning, we had a situation where an entire planeload of predominantly vaccinated people was put in two weeks' quarantine because there was one positive case. Literally, half an hour ago, that was overturned to only be those close to the positive case due to a huge media uproar.

I didn't answer the questions in points because we've been going to bars, restaurants, and living life fairly normally ... until now. Let's see where we are in a month or two!

[PDXTabs]

We don't know a single person socially who has gotten Covid outside of a couple frontline medical providers right at the start of the pandemic.  Since vaccines, zero.  Covid feels a little abstract because while we chatter about it socially, nobody actually gets it.

The bolded is pretty shocking to me.

It's not actually shocking to me, but I live in Portland where we took the pandemic very very seriously. None of my friends or coworkers in my office got it. If you snuck out on a bike ride to see one friend you were looked down on. Your best friend would refuse to see you without wearing a mask and sitting 20 feet apart, even if you lived alone and worked from home and were about to hang yourself. I'm not exaggerating. Perhaps this is why I'm a "rule follower" at this point.

[Villanelle]

We don't know a single person socially who has gotten Covid outside of a couple frontline medical providers right at the start of the pandemic.  Since vaccines, zero.  Covid feels a little abstract because while we chatter about it socially, nobody actually gets it.

The bolded is pretty shocking to me.

It's not actually shocking to me, but I live in Portland where we took the pandemic very very seriously. None of my friends or coworkers in my office got it. If you snuck out on a bike ride to see one friend you were looked down on. Your best friend would refuse to see you without wearing a mask and sitting 20 feet apart, even if you lived alone and worked from home and were about to hang yourself. I'm not exaggerating. Perhaps this is why I'm a "rule follower" at this point.

Do you not know people who don't live in Portland?

[PDXTabs]

We don't know a single person socially who has gotten Covid outside of a couple frontline medical providers right at the start of the pandemic.  Since vaccines, zero.  Covid feels a little abstract because while we chatter about it socially, nobody actually gets it.

The bolded is pretty shocking to me.

It's not actually shocking to me, but I live in Portland where we took the pandemic very very seriously. None of my friends or coworkers in my office got it. If you snuck out on a bike ride to see one friend you were looked down on. Your best friend would refuse to see you without wearing a mask and sitting 20 feet apart, even if you lived alone and worked from home and were about to hang yourself. I'm not exaggerating. Perhaps this is why I'm a "rule follower" at this point.

Do you not know people who don't live in Portland?

Not that had COVID, by my definition of "know." I know of people / am acquainted with people that had it. None that died.* But clearly, tons of people died. I'm not saying that I don't believe in government statistics.

* - none that were hospitalized

[roomtempmayo]

We don't know a single person socially who has gotten Covid outside of a couple frontline medical providers right at the start of the pandemic.  Since vaccines, zero.  Covid feels a little abstract because while we chatter about it socially, nobody actually gets it.

The bolded is pretty shocking to me.

It's not actually shocking to me

I should probably clarify that what I mean by "socially" above basically means good friends and work colleagues.  Our group of good friends is probably 50 adults or so. Our group of immediate colleagues is probably similar in number.  To be as specific as possible, one friend probably got Covid in February of 2020.  He's an emergency doc, he tested negative at the time, but he self-diagnosed based on his symptoms as Covid.  I also have one work colleague who got it in April or May of 2020 and has had some serious Long Covid issues.  But otherwise within our friends and colleagues (maybe 100 people) zero Covid.

The potentially-relevant characteristics of our friends and colleagues are: urban/suburban; universally vaccinated; most have graduate educations; skew heavily toward single family home ownership; can and do avail themselves of services to minimize their exposure to others; own and use private cars; and work in places that take Covid seriously.  They're concentrated in medicine, law, the public sector, large corporations, and academia.  They're probably less likely than the population at large to be working from home.

It is absolutely possible to create an interactive face-to-face environment without having Covid explode, and I'll use my own workplace as an example here.  My workplace covers about 16,000 people, and it basically has all the risk factors to create a super spreader event every single day of the week.

Last July, we instituted a vaccine mandate on top of the existing mask mandate and a requirement that anyone with a positive Covid test report it.  We ended up issuing about 1000 "religious" exemptions, but succeeded in getting more than 90% of our folks vaccinated.

During the initial Delta surge, we had as many as 30 cases a week as it ripped through the few unvaccinated people.

Now, though, we're down into the single digits weekly (out of 16,000!) in an environment with maximal local and community risk factors.

With high vaccination and mask wearing, it's absolutely possible to drive Covid into the ground within a few months.  That we haven't done it and aren't doing it is a choice we're making as a public.

[jpdx]

I wear a mask in indoor public places as required by law and has become expected by common decency.

I think things get more back to normal when the kids are fully vaccinated. The risk to kids themselves may be low, but the risk that they'll transmit the virus throughout the community is more of a concern.

[Linea_Norway]

@MrsV  Where I live, people with low immune systems are getting their forth vaccine dose. That while most of us others only have gotten 2 doses and are now getting nr 3. So I guess that might become your son's future, getting vaccinated very regularly.

[MrsV]

Thanks @Linea_Norway - I suspect this might be the case. He might be an every 3-4 month booster candidate. We have a check up at the hospital tomorrow and this is on my list of questions to ask his respiratory specialist. I’m just hoping the drugs he needs to tame his over active immune system attacking him don”t wind up making the cure worse than the initial issue when it comes to COVID. The doctors explained to him in basic terms that his immune system got bored with nothing to fight … yet if he caught COVID I wonder if this would actually be a good problem - his eosinophils would certainly have a job to do then! His second Pfizer was only two weeks ago - we were delayed due to issues with his other medication.

[OurTown]

We are vaccinated and I will get the 3rd shot in January.  Other posters have correctly described the risk levels.  From my point of view if you are vaccinated you have taken the necessary step and the masks for the vaccinated are largely performative.  The only thing I am not doing is visiting my elderly mother bc she is a Fox News vax refuser.

[mizzourah2006]

I wear a mask in indoor public places as required by law and has become expected by common decency.

I think things get more back to normal when the kids are fully vaccinated. The risk to kids themselves may be low, but the risk that they'll transmit the virus throughout the community is more of a concern.

In 2-3 weeks this might not matter. It's clear from Omicron that vaccinated people are spreading it like wildfire. It may be true that unvaccinated can spread it more, but at this point from what we're seeing what does "more" even mean? Look at Cornell University as an example. Campus is 99% vaccinated and they already have 500+ cases to the point they had to shutdown in-person classes. Look at the NHL, which is fully vaccinated. The vaccine does not appear to be offering much by the way of reduced transmission for Omicron or if it is the R0 is so high it doesn't matter.

[Chris Pascale]

We don't know a single person socially who has gotten Covid outside of a couple frontline medical providers right at the start of the pandemic.  Since vaccines, zero.  Covid feels a little abstract because while we chatter about it socially, nobody actually gets it.

The bolded is pretty shocking to me.

It's not actually shocking to me, but I live in Portland where we took the pandemic very very seriously. None of my friends or coworkers in my office got it. If you snuck out on a bike ride to see one friend you were looked down on. Your best friend would refuse to see you without wearing a mask and sitting 20 feet apart, even if you lived alone and worked from home and were about to hang yourself. I'm not exaggerating. Perhaps this is why I'm a "rule follower" at this point.

I also don't personally know anyone who died of COVID. A friend's mother passed away from cancer, and tested positive for COVID her last week (out of 6) in the hospital.

[mizzourah2006]

We don't know a single person socially who has gotten Covid outside of a couple frontline medical providers right at the start of the pandemic.  Since vaccines, zero.  Covid feels a little abstract because while we chatter about it socially, nobody actually gets it.

The bolded is pretty shocking to me.

It's not actually shocking to me, but I live in Portland where we took the pandemic very very seriously. None of my friends or coworkers in my office got it. If you snuck out on a bike ride to see one friend you were looked down on. Your best friend would refuse to see you without wearing a mask and sitting 20 feet apart, even if you lived alone and worked from home and were about to hang yourself. I'm not exaggerating. Perhaps this is why I'm a "rule follower" at this point.

I also don't personally know anyone who died of COVID. A friend's mother passed away from cancer, and tested positive for COVID her last week (out of 6) in the hospital.

I know one person. My wife's grandfather, but honestly right when he got Covid I figured he'd pass away. He was almost 93 and could barely walk without having to sit down to catch his breathe. I honestly only know a handful of people and kids that have gotten it and most of my friends are blue collar workers so they've been going into work for the past 2 years. I'd say I probably have about ~100-150 people including friends and family I know and keep in contact with relatively often across my wife and I and the exact number I know that tested positive is 8 and 2 of those were a couple I know that works in NYC and that happened almost immediately. Other than that it was my wife's parents (that took care of the grandfather) the grandfather, 2 close friends and just this week another close friends 1 year old. Oh I should also add most of my friends and family are in Missouri, Arkansas, and Florida. So not exactly states known for being overally cautious during these past 2 years.

[Log]

I’ve felt very comfortable with “back to normal” since around May (when the vaccine distribution had finally trickled down to my social peers of 20-somethings). As an orchestral musician, I first re-entered normal rehearsals (no masks or bell-covers for wind players) in June, and it was a joyous occasion. I now think the apathy we’ve developed towards COVID in the past 6 months has us sorely un-prepared for Omicron.

The first article I read about it I pretty much scoffed at. It basically said, “there’s a new variant identified in South Africa that we know nothing about.” Thought it was complete sensationalism trying to fear-monger about variants just for clicks. It has rapidly become clear that Omicron is going to spread like wildfire, even among the vaccinated. As of a month ago, only about 10% of Americans had gotten a booster shot, and while 2 doses might still protect against severe symptoms, that 90% who are either un-vaccinated or un-boosted is a huge population basically behaving “back-to-normal” who are MORE likely to contract and spread Omicron than the original version of the virus.

I was just in San Francisco and restaurants were PACKED. Even blue areas who’ve taken good precautions this whole time are gonna get slammed. 2-dose vaccine mandates have been adequate for these areas up to now, but we’re not going to be anywhere close to done with COVID until we get way more global distribution of vaccines to stamp out the rate of new variants.

At least in SF the reckless behavior was pretty much confined to indoor dining. The orchestra I was playing with still required masks for everyone except the wind players, and the wind players took rapid tests before every rehearsal. This behavior seemed excessive to me a week ago and now makes an abundance of sense with all I’ve read about Omicron. I’m now in Florida where you can’t even get groceries without being exposed to a ton of un-masked people coughing all over the store. In the orchestra I’m playing with here, half the strings aren’t bothering to wear masks and there’s no testing. I’m just crossing my fingers that Omicron doesn’t become pervasive in Florida until this gig is over and I can make it home to the safety of my blue state for the holidays. Because MAN these unvaccinated populations in areas with no precautions are in for some really nasty conditions in the very near future.

As a young and healthy person I was not feeling any particularly urgent need to get a booster in the world where Delta was our biggest concern, but that’s not the case anymore. I’m getting my booster as soon as I return home from this gig. Even if you can’t find an appointment, a lot of places have some amount of time per day set aside for walk-ins. Get your boosters ASAP y’all.

[mathlete]

I think the thing that's clearest to me right now is that the US needs to spend a boatload of money to get the world vaccinated. Delta and Omicron both emerged out of countries with very low vaccination rates (though it's unknown whether Omicron originated in South Africa or was simply discovered there first).

I've already resigned that the next couple of years won't really be "normal". We're going to face staffing issues across all industries, and in healthcare in particular. Things are gonna be more expensive as the supply chain recovers and the chip shortage gets addressed.

[Paper Chaser]

I think the thing that's clearest to me right now is that the US needs to spend a boatload of money to get the world vaccinated. Delta and Omicron both emerged out of countries with very low vaccination rates (though it's unknown whether Omicron originated in South Africa or was simply discovered there first).

It's zoonotic, so unless you're pushing enough vaccine for the vertebrate animals and the human populations I'm not sure it's going to be effective at eliminating viral spread.

[startingsmall]

I think the thing that's clearest to me right now is that the US needs to spend a boatload of money to get the world vaccinated. Delta and Omicron both emerged out of countries with very low vaccination rates (though it's unknown whether Omicron originated in South Africa or was simply discovered there first).

It's zoonotic, so unless you're pushing enough vaccine for the vertebrate animals and the human populations I'm not sure it's going to be effective at eliminating viral spread.

Yep, this. I'm curious to learn more about the significance of SARS-CoV-2 in white-tailed deer, but I'm sure that's probably just one of many wildlife species that can harbor the virus and periodically spill it back to us.

[HPstache]

I’m just crossing my fingers that Omicron doesn’t become pervasive in Florida until this gig is over and I can make it home to the safety of my blue state for the holidays. Because MAN these unvaccinated populations in areas with no precautions are in for some really nasty conditions in the very near future.

Florida might be one of the safest states to be in right now...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

[nereo]

I’m curious what people think about potential future variants and whether that factors in their current approach with Covid.
Delta emerged over the summer and proven both more transmissible and more deadly, Omicron within the last month and seems to be everywhere - more transmissible but seemingly less deadly than Delta.

[GodlessCommie]

From my point of view if you are vaccinated you have taken the necessary step and the masks for the vaccinated are largely performative.

This was not true with Delta, and most definitely not true with Omicron. Vaccinated can and do catch and spread the virus. We are protected enough to not develop a serious (or even noticeable) illness, and we shed less virus when asymptomatic, but we do shed the virus.

[GodlessCommie]

Florida might be one of the safest states to be in right now...

Except cases grow like crazy (same table). They just grow from a very low base.

[SunnyDays]

I think the thing that's clearest to me right now is that the US needs to spend a boatload of money to get the world vaccinated. Delta and Omicron both emerged out of countries with very low vaccination rates (though it's unknown whether Omicron originated in South Africa or was simply discovered there first).

I've already resigned that the next couple of years won't really be "normal". We're going to face staffing issues across all industries, and in healthcare in particular. Things are gonna be more expensive as the supply chain recovers and the chip shortage gets addressed.

Money isn't going to fix this, as lots of countries have vaccines sitting in freezers waiting for takers, which are few.  Unless countries start mandating vaccines, we're basically screwed.

[GodlessCommie]

Mask wearing reduces all kinds of germs, so why wouldn't I?

This is something I don't ever see addressed by people who feel like they are sufficiently protected themselves and can go to "normal" (even if that normal includes not being able to use an ER).

For a millions time, it's not about one person. Even when fully vaccinated, each of us can be a part of transmission chain that ends up killing someone with a weak immune system. Wearing a mask indoors is such a small thing. Why, why, why not do it?

[jrhampt]

Mask wearing reduces all kinds of germs, so why wouldn't I?

This is something I don't ever see addressed by people who feel like they are sufficiently protected themselves and can go to "normal" (even if that normal includes not being able to use an ER).

For a millions time, it's not about one person. Even when fully vaccinated, each of us can be a part of transmission chain that ends up killing someone with a weak immune system. Wearing a mask indoors is such a small thing. Why, why, why not do it?

Absolutely.  Indoor mask wearing is low effort, potentially high benefit.  I went back to wearing one indoors back in the summer after Delta killed my carefree hot vax summer even though there is and has been no mandate here for months.  It's easy. 

[GodlessCommie]

Money isn't going to fix this, as lots of countries have vaccines sitting in freezers waiting for takers, which are few.  Unless countries start mandating vaccines, we're basically screwed.

Can confirm for the country I'm from. Anti-vaxx sentiment like in the US x3. Pfizer dozes are there for the taking, many given as aid.

[mm1970]

Why?

I question this assumption that people will have to return.  Many people demonstrated they can successfully do most if not all of their job remotely. 

This.  My executive bosses really want everyone back in the office.  But really, who wants to wear a mask 9 hrs a day/ 5 days a week (or even 3) if you don't have to?  Therein lies the rub...the bosses prefer the interaction of in person, but a fair % of the engineering staff do not.

Plus everyone has their own level of risk tolerance, and not everyone has an office.  I share an office, for example.

This means that I wear the "hard pants" 1-3 days a week (when I can time it that the office mate is not there).  Fun fact: they make "hard pants" that are actually like leggings, and that's what I wear.

However, in general, communication is not our strong suit at my office.  We have gotten better, but just yesterday coworker #1 was peppering me with IMs in Google (and also another guy #2 in a different thread), and it was 30 minutes of "WTF are you talking about???  I did that?"  Coworker #2 and I were exchanging a few emails for me to explain to him that NO you don't have bad yield, you misread the email, they haven't gone through test yet.  But also, #2 complained to me about #1 and the IM thread that would have taken 2 minutes on a phone call.

Well, #2 prefers the phone, #1 prefers IM.  I prefer they both leave me alone. 

[Linea_Norway]

Maybe you would appreciated some numbers from Norway, where have both Delta and Omikron.
Population is 90% fully vaxxed. Among people who end up in the ICU, about 50% are vaxxed/non-vaxxed.
The vaxxed people who end up in ICU are on averaged in their late 70-ies.
The non-vaxxers who end up in ICU are on average in their 40-ies.

So the vaccin prevents many younger people from getting seriously ill.

[jinga nation]

Indoor gatherings with friends? Yes. Vaccinated people only? No.
Working on site? Yes.
Church? N/A
Gym? Yes. As soon as it opened in May 2020. Wore a mask at first all the time, then only when not doing heavy cardio. Once vaxx'ed in April 2021, stopped wearing.
Getting on an airplane? Yes. Didn't fly in 2020, but flew thrice in 2021.
Going maskless in public (retail stores, grocery stores)? Yes. But I do wear a mask if it is very crowded indoors/outdoors (e.g. Farmer's market at peak times)
Indoor restaurants that aren't busy? Yes. Indoor restaurants with someone at every table? Yes.
Outdoor stadiums that aren't completely full? N/A  Outdoor stadiums at full capacity? N/A.
Indoor stadiums (theatre, concerts, sporting events) that aren't completely full? N/A. Indoor stadiums at full capacity? N/A.
Going to a bar? Yes, but I prefer to drink with family and friends at my house or theirs.

Do you participate in some of these activities but then might take a 10 break if you are going to visit someone who you are afraid of passing the virus to? I'm vaxx'ed and boosted, and will wear a mask if visiting someone elderly or high-risk. If they are healthy and unvaxx'ed then that is their own damn problem. I've done my part, the rest is up to the unvaxx'ed in this highly individualistic country.

I don't wear a mask unless the store requests it or it is required (e.g. USPS) or in Federal/Gov buildings, or in dense gatherings indoors/outdoors. Otherwise, I'm back to normal.

[LongtimeLurker]

Curious to know whether people think COVID will eventually go away, or reduce itself to where its seasonal? After 2 years, I think we have enough data to conclude:

A) We will be living with COVID-19 for the rest of our lives.
B) Full immunity lasts about 6 months(vaccine or post-infection).
C) Anyone under age 50 has very little reason worry about themselves.
D) Mutations will make annual COVID vaccines necessary, most likely given with your fall flu shot.

Given these assumptions, what does the world do?

Continue with spotty mitigation strategies that may or may not even be effective whenever there is a spike(looks like about 2 per year)? Invest heavily in healthcare and then live life as normal? Have semi-annual seasonal mitigation strategies(Nov -Jan & June-August) that would include indoor masks, mandatory travel quarantine, negative tests to travel/go to large indoor gatherings?

I mean, what is the end-game with COVID, regardless of what camp you are in?

[former player]

Curious to know whether people think COVID will eventually go away, or reduce itself to where its seasonal? After 2 years, I think we have enough data to conclude:

A) We will be living with COVID-19 for the rest of our lives.
B) Full immunity lasts about 6 months(vaccine or post-infection).
C) Anyone under age 50 who is healthy and vaccinated has very little reason worry about themselves.
D) Mutations will make annual COVID vaccines necessary, most likely given with your fall flu shot.

Given these assumptions, what does the world do?

Continue with spotty mitigation strategies that may or may not even be effective whenever there is a spike(looks like about 2 per year)? Invest heavily in healthcare and then live life as normal? Have semi-annual seasonal mitigation strategies(Nov -Jan & June-August) that would include indoor masks, mandatory travel quarantine, negative tests to travel/go to large indoor gatherings?

FTFY

[jrhampt]

Curious to know whether people think COVID will eventually go away, or reduce itself to where its seasonal? After 2 years, I think we have enough data to conclude:

A) We will be living with COVID-19 for the rest of our lives.
B) Full immunity lasts about 6 months(vaccine or post-infection).
C) Anyone under age 50 who is healthy and vaccinated has very little reason worry about themselves.
D) Mutations will make annual COVID vaccines necessary, most likely given with your fall flu shot.

Given these assumptions, what does the world do?

Continue with spotty mitigation strategies that may or may not even be effective whenever there is a spike(looks like about 2 per year)? Invest heavily in healthcare and then live life as normal? Have semi-annual seasonal mitigation strategies(Nov -Jan & June-August) that would include indoor masks, mandatory travel quarantine, negative tests to travel/go to large indoor gatherings?

FTFY

Also, anyone currently under 50 who is healthy and vaccinated (or otherwise), will at some point be over 50.  If COVID is with us for the rest of our lifetimes, our individual risk will be constantly increasing with age.  And variants could also change the individual risk assessment.

[former player]

Curious to know whether people think COVID will eventually go away, or reduce itself to where its seasonal? After 2 years, I think we have enough data to conclude:

A) We will be living with COVID-19 for the rest of our lives.
B) Full immunity lasts about 6 months(vaccine or post-infection).
C) Anyone under age 50 who is healthy and vaccinated has very little reason worry about themselves.
D) Mutations will make annual COVID vaccines necessary, most likely given with your fall flu shot.

Given these assumptions, what does the world do?

Continue with spotty mitigation strategies that may or may not even be effective whenever there is a spike(looks like about 2 per year)? Invest heavily in healthcare and then live life as normal? Have semi-annual seasonal mitigation strategies(Nov -Jan & June-August) that would include indoor masks, mandatory travel quarantine, negative tests to travel/go to large indoor gatherings?

FTFY

Also, anyone currently under 50 who is healthy and vaccinated (or otherwise), will at some point be over 50.  If COVID is with us for the rest of our lifetimes, our individual risk will be constantly increasing with age.  And variants could also change the individual risk assessment.

Yes, at this point we are looking at covid-19 becoming endemic and resulting in a permanent reduction in life expectancy.

[GuitarStv]

Yes, at this point we are looking at covid-19 becoming endemic and resulting in a permanent reduction in life expectancy.

If this is the case, should we recalibrate early retirement numbers?  How much of a life expectancy reduction is expected?

[Cranky]

Honestly, I already avoided crowded indoor events in the winter. I’ve never been a germaphobe, but I hate all the respiratory stuff that goes around. I’m willing to give that stuff a miss just to avoid getting colds.

So I think that long term, my normal will look pretty much like today.

[startingsmall]

Curious to know whether people think COVID will eventually go away, or reduce itself to where its seasonal? After 2 years, I think we have enough data to conclude:

A) We will be living with COVID-19 for the rest of our lives.
B) Full immunity lasts about 6 months(vaccine or post-infection).
C) Anyone under age 50 has very little reason worry about themselves.
D) Mutations will make annual COVID vaccines necessary, most likely given with your fall flu shot.

Given these assumptions, what does the world do?

Continue with spotty mitigation strategies that may or may not even be effective whenever there is a spike(looks like about 2 per year)? Invest heavily in healthcare and then live life as normal? Have semi-annual seasonal mitigation strategies(Nov -Jan & June-August) that would include indoor masks, mandatory travel quarantine, negative tests to travel/go to large indoor gatherings?

I mean, what is the end-game with COVID, regardless of what camp you are in?

I'm no virologist, but I suspect that we'll all be getting COVID vaccines on some sort of semi-regular basis and those vaccines, combined with repeat exposures, will make severe disease less likely.... at least until we get older. Will the effects also lessen on older folks over time, with repeated vaccines/exposures? It's tough to say for sure, but I suspect it will be a while (if ever) before it's a non-issue for older folks. However, even the flu isn't a non-issue for older folks... and I think it's way too early to say how Future COVID will compare to Current Flu.

[PDXTabs]

On the bad side of things, due to Original Antigenic Sin there is currently no evidence that reformulated boosters will help. On the positive side of things, there is no historic evidence of past coronavirus pandemics which resulted in a permanent reduction of life expectancy.

[Villanelle]

On the bad side of things, due to Original Antigenic Sin there is currently no evidence that reformulated boosters will help. On the positive side of things, there is no historic evidence of past coronavirus pandemics which resulted in a permanent reduction of life expectancy.

Can you explain more about what you mean about reformulated boosters not helping?  Are you saying that a program, similar to the flu shots, that evolves each year's booster to cover the strain most prevalant at that time (or most quickly growing) will not be effective?  If not, why not?  (To be clear, I'm asking out of ignorance and curiosity; I'm not challenging your assertion in any way, just trying to understand.)

[PDXTabs]

On the bad side of things, due to Original Antigenic Sin there is currently no evidence that reformulated boosters will help. On the positive side of things, there is no historic evidence of past coronavirus pandemics which resulted in a permanent reduction of life expectancy.

Can you explain more about what you mean about reformulated boosters not helping?  Are you saying that a program, similar to the flu shots, that evolves each year's booster to cover the strain most prevalant at that time (or most quickly growing) will not be effective?  If not, why not?  (To be clear, I'm asking out of ignorance and curiosity; I'm not challenging your assertion in any way, just trying to understand.)

I am not a virologist or any kind of doctor. I just stumbled across this commentary with Denise Roland at the WSJ. Then of course I do what I always do and went straight to wikipedia:

Original antigenic sin, also known as antigenic imprinting or the Hoskins effect,[1] refers to the propensity of the body's immune system to preferentially utilize immunological memory based on a previous infection when a second slightly different version of that foreign pathogen (e.g. a virus or bacterium) is encountered. This leaves the immune system "trapped" by the first response it has made to each antigen, and unable to mount potentially more effective responses during subsequent infections. Antibodies or T-cells induced during infections with the first variant of the pathogen are subject to a form of original antigenic sin, termed repertoire freeze.

To be fair, we haven't seen data released on updated boosters yet, and I think that we will see more news about them soon. Also, the seasonal flu vaccine is ~50% effective, although I am not qualified to comment on why that is.

[HPstache]

Curious to know whether people think COVID will eventually go away, or reduce itself to where its seasonal? After 2 years, I think we have enough data to conclude:

A) We will be living with COVID-19 for the rest of our lives.
B) Full immunity lasts about 6 months(vaccine or post-infection).
C) Anyone under age 50 has very little reason worry about themselves.
D) Mutations will make annual COVID vaccines necessary, most likely given with your fall flu shot.

Given these assumptions, what does the world do?

Continue with spotty mitigation strategies that may or may not even be effective whenever there is a spike(looks like about 2 per year)? Invest heavily in healthcare and then live life as normal? Have semi-annual seasonal mitigation strategies(Nov -Jan & June-August) that would include indoor masks, mandatory travel quarantine, negative tests to travel/go to large indoor gatherings?

I mean, what is the end-game with COVID, regardless of what camp you are in?

Rocks will continue to rain down, but they will likely get smaller over time.  There will be new advancements and efficiencies in treating head trauma wounds, including a pill that heals the wounds quick enough to avoid hospitalization and death in most cases... this pill will be happily taken by non rockbrella owners because it's a familiar technology.  Leaders will begin to drop the requirement to participate in joint tarp holding as they realize it's only rockbrella owners who are actually participating in the tradition anyway.  Some rockbrella owners will insist on continuing the tradition of tarp holding as an extra precaution and routinely call out people online who have chosen to trust their rockbrella alone... as an extra bonus, it's a sure way to not be confused as someone who may have been an anti-rockbrella-er (they're invisible after all) and it makes them feel good for people to see that they care for those who cannot use a rockbrella for whatever rare reason.  New models of the rockbrella will come out every year making the inventors & manufacturers of the rockbrellas extremely wealthy.  100 years later, people will forget why exactly some groups people walk around as groups under tarps... kind of like no how one remembers why people say "bless you" after you sneeze today.