When can I stop worry about sequence of return risk

[vagavince]

I understand the biggest risk is sequence of return

Is there a time when I can stop worry about this risk? Like x years in or at certain age?

[GilesMM]

Probably a third of the way into retirement is safe. Or when you are on social security and it covers most of your expenses...


BTW, worrying does nothing so better not to worry.

[Ron Scott]

Although the sequence of return risk drops mathematically over time, as retirees spend down their portfolio, it never goes away. So long as you need to sell invested assets that fluctuate in value to fund living expenses, you are subject to it.

[ender]

If you retire on a 4% withdrawal rate and it turns into a 2% withdrawal rate after 10 years, you probably don't care about SoR risk anymore.

But if it goes to 6% you still need to think of it.

[ChpBstrd]

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2020/07/15/when-can-we-stop-worrying-about-sequence-risk-swr-series-part-38/

[FIRE 20/20]

Kitces had a great article on this. 
https://www.kitces.com/blog/understanding-sequence-of-return-risk-safe-withdrawal-rates-bear-market-crashes-and-bad-decades/
The whole article is worth a read, but this chart captures most of the important information.  Basically, don't worry excessively if you see 1-3 years of bad real returns, but if you're still struggling as you move from 3 to 10 years then it's time to consider whether or not to make some changes. 

[shuffler]

When you've not yet run out of money, but have run out of "sequence".   :^|

[RedmondStash]

This doesn't exactly answer your question, but one piece of advice I got early on was to take my current portfolio and project out for 50 years at a 7% return rate (or whatever would be appropriate for your AA), taking both increases and spending into account. That's the average expected return.

It's been useful for managing worry about SORR, and also for not getting too excited when returns are higher than expected. Basically I figure that as long as my portfolio doesn't dip too far below that average projection, I'm more or less okay.

I personally don't expect to ever be beyond the reach of SORR. It's just part of the risk/reward of investing in the stock market. I've mostly made peace with it.

[FIRE 20/20]

This doesn't exactly answer your question, but one piece of advice I got early on was to take my current portfolio and project out for 50 years at a 7% return rate (or whatever would be appropriate for your AA), taking both increases and spending into account. That's the average expected return.

It's been useful for managing worry about SORR, and also for not getting too excited when returns are higher than expected. Basically I figure that as long as my portfolio doesn't dip too far below that average projection, I'm more or less okay.

I personally don't expect to ever be beyond the reach of SORR. It's just part of the risk/reward of investing in the stock market. I've mostly made peace with it.

The point of SORR is that most people DO get past it.  The whole idea is that early returns (like a decade, not 1-2 years) have an outsized impact on whether or not you're going to make it.  I can't find the article - I think it was by Michael Kitces - that showed that if at the 10 year point you still have what you FIREd with or more (inflation adjusted), you're almost certainly past any SORR concerns.  At that point about 70% who followed the 4% rule will have more (often a lot more) than when they started, so even if markets crash they're ok.  The sequence of the returns matters - an average or better first decade means you had a good sequence and are beyond the reach of SORR. 
Of course 30% of people will be at or below what they started with, and that means they're still at some risk.  But of that 30%, most will have endured a bad decade and are at the beginning of a good or very good decade and will quickly get back over their inflation adjusted FIRE number.  Only an unfortunate 5% or so of the starting group will be far enough below their initial FIRE number that they'll have too little to benefit from the boom that typically follows a bad decade.  Hopefully they made adjustments so they could get through it. 

[mistymoney]

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2020/07/15/when-can-we-stop-worrying-about-sequence-risk-swr-series-part-38/

LOL!

the answers are out there!

[Finances_With_Purpose]

The biggest risk is up front; it diminishes after that (because unless you did horribly up front, you should keep up).  That's also when it's easiest for you to hedge, which is good.