Author Topic: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud  (Read 22830 times)

The Accidental Mustachian

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #50 on: June 29, 2015, 04:25:51 PM »
yes, that would be two countries that retained control of their own currency. Everyone knew the danger of entering a currency union. (which is precisely why the UK didn't)  Greece were so keen to join the cooked the books in order to do so. Whinging about the disciplines of that currency union now doesn't really earn on much sympathy.

Everyone is forgetting that Goldman Sachs were the ones that helped them cook the books.

Must have thought it was a brilliant idea hiring GS to "advise" them how to get into the Euro.

Just another client that wakes up several years later to find that they've been dudded by the vampire squid.

No i certainly haven't forgotten, but to paint them as hapless victims of GS is laughably ridiculous. Partners in crime would be a much more accurate description!

forummm

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #51 on: June 29, 2015, 04:46:14 PM »
The most tragic thing about all this was that I was going to move my Roth IRA away from an expensive high-fee account to Vanguard and now I have to wait for months until the price increases again to the point where I won't take a loss.  *sigh*  Money down the drain.

Why can't you take the loss? You're just moving from A to B.

I don't want to buy high and sell low.  Or in this case, buy low and sell even lower thanks to idiots in Europe.

If you have investment X in account A you can sell it and buy investment X in account B and you haven't lost anything.  What detail is missing here?

The high-fee account wasn't invested in Vanguard funds.

You've already lost the money. That's a sunk cost. Just invest in whatever Vanguard fund you were going to buy anyway. It's just as likely to increase in value as whatever else you invested in. Except it will increase further in value because of the low fees.

forummm

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #52 on: June 29, 2015, 04:47:24 PM »
How did you all enjoy seing your funds shrink today,lol. I was looking at my investments and in my TFSA (tax free savings account), just that alone I lost 500$ today and if I combine with my other investments, I am sure I lost over 1K$-2K$. I could only imagine how much some have probably lost alot more today. It was brutal to watch, thank god I am not like some people who panic and sell at moments like these. Can't wait for next week to purchase more ETF's, stocks are for sale big time and it might go lower.

Meh. It goes up, I buy. It goes down, I buy.

Indexer

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #53 on: June 29, 2015, 06:02:49 PM »
.....

The opinion, maybe.  The facts aren't from the Greek point of view - they're facts.  So when people say things like "Greece refuses to make significant changes" they're speaking from a position of ignorance.

So I know Greece has raised the regular retirement age to 67, and has tried to reduce the number of people who take early retirement as well as benefits, but I haven't found good numbers on what the new system is.  Do you have any references for what the current system for early retirement is, or what either Greece or the rest of Europe is proposing for additional reforms?

You're 100% right on the primary surplus.  However, the IMF and ECB usually drastically reduce interest charges in exchange for financial reform like Greece has already made.

The point is that a default isn't necessary.  Europe is forcing a default.

Your information is right, but I'm not coming to the same conclusion.

The actions Greece had already taken were working.  This is a good thing!  Now Greece is unhappy that they are actually feeling what it is like to be financially responsible so they elect a bunch of guys who promise to get them better terms a.k.a. go back to the good old days of spending other people's money.  Before that election was even done the creditors were pretty vocal that the politicians were selling snake oil... the deal they had was the best they were going to get.  But they elected them anyway, and this is the conclusion everyone expected.  The creditors can't give Greece a sweat heart deal, that makes them look weak to Spain and Portugal.  Greece only got the old deal because people were worried about Spain and Portugal.  Now that isn't the case.  Why would they expect to get a better deal this time?  If anything the way to save Spain now is to let Greece default.  That drops the risk of Spain defaulting pretty substantially because they will see the costs of doing so.  Don't play chicken with a German tank that already ran over an Attica.

And Europe is NOT forcing a default.  1.  Greece got themselves into this.  2.  Greece AGREED to the old terms of the old bailout.  3.  The only reason Greece has been solvent so far is because of money from Europe.  4.  That isn't good enough for the Greek people so they want new terms.

If anything Europe has been preventing default... more than they should be expected to. 

This is like you not paying your mortgage, asking for a modification, getting it, and then a year later saying it isn't good enough... you want another modification that is even better or you are going to default.  Do you think the bank is even going to entertain this idea?  Their response will likely be forms explaining what to expect in the foreclosure process. 
« Last Edit: June 29, 2015, 06:05:52 PM by Indexer »

MoneyCat

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #54 on: June 29, 2015, 06:06:35 PM »
I think Germany, er, I mean, "Europe", is actually going to give in to Greece on this, because otherwise, Europe is going to plunge back into another Great Recession and destroy every other country in the EU.  It's a game of chicken.

MoneyCat

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #55 on: June 29, 2015, 06:53:02 PM »
Quote
    Why can't you take the loss? You're just moving from A to B.


I don't want to buy high and sell low.  Or in this case, buy low and sell even lower thanks to idiots in Europe.

Sunk cost fallacy. See: http://youarenotsosmart.com/2011/03/25/the-sunk-cost-fallacy/

It's not a sunk cost.  The money will return.  That's kind of one of the cornerstones of Mustachianism.

TheOldestYoungMan

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #56 on: June 29, 2015, 07:38:20 PM »
To the OP's question, as far as the mustachian philosophy, it doesn't matter if your local economy melts down, you're better off living this lifestyle.

So your investments disappear and your balance sheet becomes worthless?

You are still in better shape then people who grind away their life in a cubicle until age 67.
You are still in better shape then people who don't know how to live off 15, 20, or 25k per year.
You are still in better shape then people who were already in massive debt when the bottom fell out.

And as an interesting and natively optimistic person, fresh off of years or decades of retirement, you'll make a great employee, particularly once so many others seeking work have their kneecaps bashed in by german bankers.  That's what we're talking about right? 

If I lived in Greece right now I'd stay invested in Greece, because home team.
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The holders of that Greek debt are well within their rights to enforce the contracts.  But it is not always true that just because you are allowed to do a thing, it is right to do the thing.

Should Greece have borrowed all that money.  Naw.  Particularly not to spend the way they did.  Should they have joined the EU?  Naw.  Should the EU have let them in? Naw.

The situation is too complicated for right and wrong.  Everyone had a hand in this stew.

The idea of multiple, independent, powerful countries deciding to share a currency, but not merging in any other real way, was fucking nuts.

This is an articles of confederation thing.  Without an obligation that others come to your aid, they're going to say piss off at some point.

Was Greece headed for a ten year depression if they hadn't joined the EU?  I seem to recall that they sort of were.  I don't remember the Greek economy ever being held up as a great way to do things.

But I think being on the euro has made their situation worse.  That's because nobody is blameless in a situation like this.  The responsible older brother who strings his sibling along until finally cutting them off isn't even close to being responsible for the other's situation, but he isn't not responsible either.
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So what if, instead of the USA were Greece, what if, say, North Carolina, or Ohio, was Greece.  And Texas and Colorado said, no, we won't help you refinance that debt, you can just descend into oblivion.  That wouldn't sound particularly neighborly.

------------------------

I get nervous whenever any foreign-debt-payment riddled European country elects far left wing well-spoken politicians who are openly contemptuous of the existing European order.

Just sayin'.

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The recent election makes it really really easy to say, well, that's what they want, just let them go into default.  Then they'll learn their lesson.

Yes, I'm sure that once their financial, educational, and governmental institutions collapse, the generation of children that grow up in abject poverty will both understand why it happened and agree with us who is to blame.

I'm suspicious that it doesn't work like that.  I don't believe that any politican, grecian or otherwise, now or in the future, will ever tell the truth to the people casting the votes, except by accident.  So this isn't a teenager we found smoking the reefer in our own house, who will understand that because they let it interfere with their grades, is going to have to be punished.

This is the 80 year old man who just groped his nurse.  You can stab him in the throat if you want, but it isn't something he truly deserves.
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During the US financial meltdown, I wanted some bankers hauled in front of the firing squad.  I wanted the people responsible to die horrible deaths, and I wanted their children to know poverty for 9 generations.  Suspend due process.  We know who did this, lets fucking kill them.  That'll teach others to not do this again.  It's a good thing the people in charge weren't paying attention to what I wanted.  It wouldn't have helped.

There is no, zero, upside, to a greek default.  There just isn't.  You can say that they'll learn their lesson, or that others would follow their example, but that is a longshot argument.  Literally every single party will be worse off.  That the leaders on their side are hell bent on going down that road doesn't mean you should let them.  Financial collapse is always bad.  Always.  Any reform or social engineering re-education would be better performed against a backdrop of stable economic development.

You don't let your friend jump off the ledge.  You just don't.  It is always wrong.  Independent of you having a totally legit reason to be somewhere else at the time.  You made a commitment to that friend to be there.  No matter how hard they kick and struggle, you just hold on until help arrives.  You watch their kids until they get out of rehab.  You keep your hands off their wife.  Even if they touched yours.

Stubbornness in others is so frustrating exactly because it brings out our own stubbornness.  That's why your kid not eating his vegetables makes you want to send them to bed without dinner.  You won't eat this?  FINE!  You can't have ANYTHING!  The outside observer shakes his head at the stubborn child and the stubborn parent.  The parent is both aware of letting the child dictate their state, and frustrated that they can't come up with a different solution.

Negotiations seem to have broken down.  And what that always means is that someone else is going to put a different idea forward.  Hopefully it's "lets all eat chocolate" and not "lets blame and purge that class/race/profession."
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It's entirely possible that making every Greek sit down and read this blog (translated into pension access language?) would fix the whole thing.

kpd905

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #57 on: June 29, 2015, 07:40:02 PM »

It's not a sunk cost.  The money will return.  That's kind of one of the cornerstones of Mustachianism.

It should return whether you are invested in your current fund or in a Vanguard fund.

regulator

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #58 on: June 29, 2015, 08:27:17 PM »
So what if, instead of the USA were Greece, what if, say, North Carolina, or Ohio, was Greece.  And Texas and Colorado said, no, we won't help you refinance that debt, you can just descend into oblivion.  That wouldn't sound particularly neighborly.

That is precisely what is happening right now, today in the US.  Puerto Rico is basically bankrupt and the Feddle Gubmint has already come out and publicly said "good luck, guys, you're gonna need it."

TheOldestYoungMan

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #59 on: June 29, 2015, 09:27:13 PM »
Yea I saw that article just now.  I don't have any idea what functionally happens inside a U.S. territory if the local government gets to a point where it can't borrow money anymore.  But if I wanted to borrow money to buy a house there, I could.  I don't think it bodes well for puerto rican statehood though.

Do territories get the benefits of social security, unemployment insurance, or other social safety net type stuff?

I don't think that the federal gov't telling Puerto Rico to F Off is the same as any individual state saying that.  I'd approach some other governors if I was in charge.  Nevada might be in the market for some beachfront property :P

dude

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #60 on: June 30, 2015, 08:54:20 AM »
What I don't understand is why the european stocks are down because of greece. I mean my international funds are down this week because of Greece, but yet my index funds have no greek companies. So can someone explain me why the european market is down when they have nothing to do with the problems with Greece?? I know it sounds like a newbie question, but I always wondered why one country's problem drags down the other markets, afterall you are investing in companies, not on what is going on elsewhere or am I missing the point?

Because the Eurozone (the european countries that use the euro) is a house of cards. It bonded together inherently unstable countries like Greece and other mainly southern countries with super strong economies like Germany and others in the North. The confidence in the project is that unity will lead to a constant subsidising of the weaker economies. But Greece is a total basket case and refuses to make significant changes and now the stronger economies have had enough. They are cutting the credit as Greece simply refuses to make the reforms demanded (like making more than a token effort to collect tax).

Now Greece on its own is no huge deal. Its economy is tiny compared to the Eurozone, but if it exits the eurozone then the market has no confidence that Europe support other weaker economies and they to will drift toward exit. (this is called 'Contagion' Great Name!) The prime candidates are Spain and Italy, but if they go the whole project will unravel and imo, put pressure on France a huge (but moribund) economy. This will plunge Europe into a HUGE recession which will make 2008 look like a small accounting error and totally tank the european economy.

So the stakes are high. Greece knows the relative strength of its bargaining position given the above scenario and at the mo neither side is blinking. Oh and given that the EU is the largest trading block in the world a recession there will have knock on effects worldwide.

Also, Eurozone and U.S. concerns about Greece turning to Putin or China as their savior.  Both are probably more than willing to shake things up in Europe.

dude

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #61 on: June 30, 2015, 09:00:13 AM »
Electing a far left government who refuse to honour the terms of the deal was a disastrous misstep by the Greek people for which they will pay a heavy price.
Remains to be seen. At the moment they are like Wall St in 2008 = bail us out or the entire banking system collapses, thank you ;-)
Greece is saying, throw us out of the euro and Portugal, spain, Ireland will leave - that leaves Germany back in the Euro==Deutschmark days.

It is funny how massive printing of free money (sorry carefully calculated quantitive easing) is the correct answer for USA and UK but harsh austerity measures are the best for everyone else.

I think that asshole Donald Trump once said, "Owe a bank a million dollars, and they have you by the balls; owe a bank a billion dollars, and you have them by the balls."  Seems to be what's going on here.  The risk of contagion has always been the big fear over there (and here).

rocketpj

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #62 on: July 01, 2015, 01:19:02 AM »
In fairness to Greece, much of the debt they are currently struggling under was originally denominated in drachmas.

Once they switched to the Euro, their debt was switched also.  Then the Euro doubled in value (or so) with no corresponding increase in the actual Greek economy.  So now the bondholders - who have basically been gifted with a doubling of their money - are demanding Greece stripmine their economy in order to pay the debts.  And Greece can't reasonably do it.

So imagine your bank calls you up and tells you that because your neighbours up the street are doing really well, your mortgage is now double what it was before.  And don't stop making payments or you will default and that would be BAAAAD.  You selfish lazy bum!

It's easy to be smug about how Greece should just pay its debts yada yada when we live in countries that actually have a) control over their monetary policy and b) a sane monetary policy (for a given value of sane).  Not that there weren't any profligate and foolish years - they were suckered into hosting an Olympics after all.

As for the rest of Europe, most of the banks in Europe were directed to use bonds as their reserves by the ECB.  Some of them took on MASSIVE amounts of bonds, which are now potentially junk.  If Greece defaults, some of the other PIIGS might as well, and you will see banks collapsing across the Eurozone.  So that's why Europe is struggling (excepting Germany - which is benefiting from some capital flight).


mozar

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #63 on: July 01, 2015, 01:22:07 PM »
I read a good article about how Greece had been in default for 50% of its existence. Literally since the year 600 of the common era. From what I read, Greek politicians don't entirely get the concept of solvency. Which is fine if you don't want to be in the eurozone. But you can't have it both ways. What's sad is that people are so used to being poor that they will likely vote against their own interests.

gillstone

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #64 on: July 01, 2015, 02:17:06 PM »
What makes it really sad is that it seems like there is no political party or coalition in Greece actually competent enough to deal with the corruption and debt without also screwing over lower and middle class citizens.

lostamonkey

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #65 on: July 01, 2015, 03:04:39 PM »
How did you all enjoy seing your funds shrink today,lol. I was looking at my investments and in my TFSA (tax free savings account), just that alone I lost 500$ today and if I combine with my other investments, I am sure I lost over 1K$-2K$. I could only imagine how much some have probably lost alot more today. It was brutal to watch, thank god I am not like some people who panic and sell at moments like these. Can't wait for next week to purchase more ETF's, stocks are for sale big time and it might go lower.

I don't check my investment account balance every day, and I think this is healthy. I just see the news, think "oh, I probably lost a bunch of money today" and get back to what I was doing.

Christof

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #66 on: July 01, 2015, 03:12:42 PM »
I lost 500$ today and if I combine with my other investments, I am sure I lost over 1K$-2K$.

How can you lose money if you haven't sold any investments??

lostamonkey

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #67 on: July 01, 2015, 03:32:21 PM »
I lost 500$ today and if I combine with my other investments, I am sure I lost over 1K$-2K$.

How can you lose money if you haven't sold any investments??

Paper losses are very real. It would be dishonest to think that you don't lose money till you sell. The cost of your investments is irrelevant (other than for tax), the market value is all that matters.

davisgang90

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #68 on: July 02, 2015, 09:03:56 AM »
Electing a far left government who refuse to honour the terms of the deal was a disastrous misstep by the Greek people for which they will pay a heavy price.
Remains to be seen. At the moment they are like Wall St in 2008 = bail us out or the entire banking system collapses, thank you ;-)
Greece is saying, throw us out of the euro and Portugal, spain, Ireland will leave - that leaves Germany back in the Euro==Deutschmark days.

It is funny how massive printing of free money (sorry carefully calculated quantitive easing) is the correct answer for USA and UK but harsh austerity measures are the best for everyone else.
It's called controlling your own currency.  US and UK can print more money.  Eurozone, not so much. 

A big potential game changer is Russian or Chinese "help" that may lead Greece away from European influences and NATO (at least that's what us military types are concerned about).

TheOldestYoungMan

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #69 on: July 02, 2015, 09:04:37 AM »
I lost 500$ today and if I combine with my other investments, I am sure I lost over 1K$-2K$.

How can you lose money if you haven't sold any investments??

Paper losses are very real. It would be dishonest to think that you don't lose money till you sell. The cost of your investments is irrelevant (other than for tax), the market value is all that matters.

The arbitrary assignment of a dollar value to a thing that is definitely not dollars is irrelevant.  I own 1 share of a company.  The value of that share could change by billions of dollars over the time I hold it, but it isn't actually converted back into dollars until I sell it.  So you don't lose or gain anything when the "price" changes day to day.  You still have 1 share.  In fact, when you try to go and sell that share, you'll find that the "market" value doesn't have much to do with how much you actually get paid for it.  The "market" value is just what the most recent buyer paid to the most recent seller.  I think.  But, computers?

You have dollars.  You spend them on shares.  You now have no dollars, and some shares.  A year ago my portfolio was worth a couple thousand shares.  It is now worth slightly more shares, due to dividend reinvesting.  As I have no cash in my portfolio, its true dollar value is zero.  I think I actually have about eight dollars in there, because whole numbers of shares and a willingness to accept a range of values on my most recent trade.

But when I log in to my account it shows me I have all these dollars!  And the number of dollars I have changes every day!  Fortunately, I was born with the ability to reason, and I've figured out this game.  Once you join the capital class, you figure out that the "dollar" shown on that screen is just a way of keeping track.  It's expressing the worth of your shares in a "non-dimensional" sense, because we can't show the actual true value, we substitute dollars.  Maybe one day my dream of getting everyone to express their portfolio value in terms of newborn puppies or freshly baked cookies, but for now the standard is dollars (in the USA!) and so that's what I use.

But if you dig down you'll see it expressed somewhere as an "unrealized" loss or gain.  In truth, when I bought those shares, I experienced a 100% loss.  I have no money left, only shares.  A 100% loss?  Well, if you think of how much cash you have as winning or losing.  I actually prefer to have earning power, more than cash, and that's what the shares are.  Unless they are lazy, greek shares.  So spending all my money on shares to me is an instant 100% gain.  And literally any selling is a loss.

I can't spend a share of T at the gas station.  And I sure as shit can't use it to pay my taxes!  If I ever sell a share, at that point, I'll have cash again, and if I wanted to I could compare that to how much cash I had before I bought it.  But as you said, that cost is also irrelevant (except for tax purposes).


Telecaster

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #70 on: July 02, 2015, 03:12:09 PM »

An analogy would be that five years ago a good friend came to you saying he was in trouble with loan sharks who would leave pieces of him around town if you didn't help him pay.  You help your buddy but require he get his shit together. 

He came back again just a few weeks ago, he doesn't like the changes he had to make.  He wants the money without any requirements that he improve his behavior enough to exit his situation. And says he needs more money or he'll stop getting loans from banks and may receive a stern worded letter or two.

That's an analogy all right, it just isn't a very good one  ;)

What the Greeks are saying, and a number of economists agree with them, is that in a recession, the last thing you want to do is cut spending and increase taxes, because that makes the recession worse.   The Greeks have cut spending and raised taxes as a percent of GDP, but because GDP is shrinking they are raising less money.   

The Greeks want to be able to take steps to grow their economy, which in turn will make it easier to pay back their creditors.  I think they have a good point.   To be sure, the Greek government caused the problem, so some painful measures are needed, but it might work out better for everybody if the creditors backed off a little bit.   


DollarBill

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #71 on: July 02, 2015, 03:28:09 PM »
We are Greece...but with the option to print more money! Keep that freak train rollin!

gimp

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #72 on: July 02, 2015, 04:09:47 PM »
Unlike greece, we have a reasonably low unemployment rate *, we produce a hell of a lot of things the world wants, we have a lot of natural resources, and so on.

It's always good to be wary - remember the expression: but for the grace of god, there go we - but there's no need to exaggerate.






* based on the way that we currently calculate unemployment, which is obviously just a heuristic and not a perfect one

grantmeaname

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #73 on: July 02, 2015, 04:19:33 PM »
I lost 500$ today and if I combine with my other investments, I am sure I lost over 1K$-2K$.

How can you lose money if you haven't sold any investments??

Paper losses are very real. It would be dishonest to think that you don't lose money till you sell. The cost of your investments is irrelevant (other than for tax), the market value is all that matters.

The arbitrary assignment of a dollar value to a thing that is definitely not dollars is irrelevant.  I own 1 share of a company.  The value of that share could change by billions of dollars over the time I hold it, but it isn't actually converted back into dollars until I sell it.  So you don't lose or gain anything when the "price" changes day to day.  You still have 1 share.  In fact, when you try to go and sell that share, you'll find that the "market" value doesn't have much to do with how much you actually get paid for it.  The "market" value is just what the most recent buyer paid to the most recent seller.  I think.  But, computers?

You have dollars.  You spend them on shares.  You now have no dollars, and some shares.  A year ago my portfolio was worth a couple thousand shares.  It is now worth slightly more shares, due to dividend reinvesting.  As I have no cash in my portfolio, its true dollar value is zero.  I think I actually have about eight dollars in there, because whole numbers of shares and a willingness to accept a range of values on my most recent trade.

But when I log in to my account it shows me I have all these dollars!  And the number of dollars I have changes every day!  Fortunately, I was born with the ability to reason, and I've figured out this game.  Once you join the capital class, you figure out that the "dollar" shown on that screen is just a way of keeping track.  It's expressing the worth of your shares in a "non-dimensional" sense, because we can't show the actual true value, we substitute dollars.  Maybe one day my dream of getting everyone to express their portfolio value in terms of newborn puppies or freshly baked cookies, but for now the standard is dollars (in the USA!) and so that's what I use.

But if you dig down you'll see it expressed somewhere as an "unrealized" loss or gain.  In truth, when I bought those shares, I experienced a 100% loss.  I have no money left, only shares.  A 100% loss?  Well, if you think of how much cash you have as winning or losing.  I actually prefer to have earning power, more than cash, and that's what the shares are.  Unless they are lazy, greek shares.  So spending all my money on shares to me is an instant 100% gain.  And literally any selling is a loss.

I can't spend a share of T at the gas station.  And I sure as shit can't use it to pay my taxes!  If I ever sell a share, at that point, I'll have cash again, and if I wanted to I could compare that to how much cash I had before I bought it.  But as you said, that cost is also irrelevant (except for tax purposes).
This seems like an entirely unworkable and unhelpful accounting system. You can believe whatever you want, of course, but the point of accounting is to provide useful information and this system provides none by pretending that non-cash assets don't have any value when they clearly do.

forummm

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #74 on: July 02, 2015, 04:43:07 PM »
We are Greece...but with the option to print more money! Keep that freak train rollin!

Greece has had deficit to GDP ratios of 10%-16% for an extended period of time. The US was 2.78% last year.

Christof

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #75 on: July 02, 2015, 04:57:07 PM »
Paper losses are very real. It would be dishonest to think that you don't lose money till you sell. The cost of your investments is irrelevant (other than for tax), the market value is all that matters.

No, they are not real.

You might feel attached to paper gains and losses, but they only become real when you sell, and losses only become a threat when you need to sell not on your own terms.

You do realize that the price of a share is only the amount of the last transaction no matter how minuscle? If I decide to buy just one share of a company that normaly is worth $1 for the price of $1000, this increases the stock price 1000 times, and therefore your paper gains, as well, for a small period of time. It does not mean that the entire company has suddenly become worth more.

You might feel the need to assign a dollar (or whatever your currency is) value. But you really should see it as what it is, an aproximate estimation. I own a company, but I can't tell you what it is worth today, nor can others. Estimations are usually based on rules of thumb and vary by 100% and more.

Multiplying the number of shares with the value of the last transaction is one approach. If you consider the purachase price of each individual share, you get a different value. If you add up the price paid for the last transactions covering the number of shares issued, you get a third result. Valuation based on last sale made is only popular, because it is the easiest type of valuation, not because it is the most accurate.

Christof

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #76 on: July 02, 2015, 05:15:02 PM »
This seems like an entirely unworkable and unhelpful accounting system. You can believe whatever you want, of course, but the point of accounting is to provide useful information and this system provides none by pretending that non-cash assets don't have any value when they clearly do.

You are correct. A share price is an accounting system. Such a system has the purpose of assigning a monetary value to a non-monetary, but not worthless, piece of property. The most common reason to find a value is for taxi ng purposes. The second most common reason is for distributing gains among owners. You will find that in most countries companies use different valuations for even those two cases.

An accounting system serves a purpose. It assigns a specific value to an asset for a particular reason. Outside this reason the value has little to no meaning.

Look at a very simple example of valuing your posessions. You can value them at the price if you sold them today on Craigslist, or could value them at the price you would pay today if you bought them on Craigslist. Both would be quite different, but represent the same assests.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2015, 05:16:33 PM by Christof »

Left

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #77 on: July 02, 2015, 05:18:02 PM »
I thought now would be a better time to move money... you don't have to pay as much for taxes because price went down

if you sold now, and bought now, what difference does it make? You want to wait until stock A goes back to original price? But stock B also went down, so if A went back to original price, B will have went up as well... or are you under the impression that A went down more than B so you can't trade it for a 1 to 1 trade? Like $100 A went to $50 A but $100 B only dropped to $75 B? But in that case, A has twice the grounds to make up than B so B gets more expensive when you get back to $100 A

TheOldestYoungMan

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #78 on: July 03, 2015, 11:53:31 AM »
I thought now would be a better time to move money... you don't have to pay as much for taxes because price went down

if you sold now, and bought now, what difference does it make? You want to wait until stock A goes back to original price? But stock B also went down, so if A went back to original price, B will have went up as well... or are you under the impression that A went down more than B so you can't trade it for a 1 to 1 trade? Like $100 A went to $50 A but $100 B only dropped to $75 B? But in that case, A has twice the grounds to make up than B so B gets more expensive when you get back to $100 A

I think you're aiming at a similar concept to tax-loss harvesting, and adjusting your basis, but combining an asset allocation change into the mix.  The timing of when to sell one asset to buy another causes me too much heartburn, so whenever I want a new asset I try to just use new contributions to establish a position. 

I'm a little more comfy with rebalancing, but I don't try to intentionally adjust my basis during the accumulation phase.  In the future if I have years with very low taxable income I may investigate strategies like that, but it's far enough away and I sort of expect the taxing of the capital class to get a little less favorable over the next decade.

TheOldestYoungMan

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #79 on: July 03, 2015, 12:16:57 PM »

This seems like an entirely unworkable and unhelpful accounting system. You can believe whatever you want, of course, but the point of accounting is to provide useful information and this system provides none by pretending that non-cash assets don't have any value when they clearly do.

If the only way to measure value is dollars then you are correct.  I'm suspicious that the assignment of dollars is really just a convenient way to allow us to talk about value.  In particular, to be able to discuss the value without knowing anything about what is going on.

The way I think about my assets is that the current price is not in any way representative of the value.

Prices are important, and they provide a critical piece of feedback information.  Indeed, if we could make a functioning economy without price information it'd solve alot of problems.  But nobody has figured out how to do that.

"Such and such company is trading at $80, which I think is undervalued"

The entire financial sector commentary is implicitly making this "price does not equal value" assumption that I've described, and so it is probably worth thinking about.

There's another thread going on right now talking about the P/E ratio.  Many people consider this to be a better indicator of the value than the price.  Certainly, the value does hinge on potential earnings.  Vanguard won't display my portfolio in terms of weighted P/E ratio though, so I must run many many maths to see where it's at.

Value is hard to talk about, so we use dollars.  But the current price of a particular share is not relevant, and therefore any determinations of gain or loss from one day to the next based on that data isn't going to be particularly relevant either.

It's also possible this is just what it takes for me to sleep at night, because on any given day I see swings in the tens of thousands of dollars.

The "number of shares" column keeps climbing up and up though.

Cougar

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #80 on: July 03, 2015, 01:15:14 PM »
The US is not in anywhere the situation Greece was in. The US maintains its own currency. This allows the dollar to fluctuate with respect to other currencies. This provides the ability for the US to prevent the kind of austerity-induced economic decline that Greece has been forced into by devaluing the dollar if needed, which would increase exports and boost the economy back up. Greece wasn't able to do this. So they had to just keep cutting and cutting government spending. Which kills the economy. Which leads to lower tax receipts. Which leads to more government spending cuts. Which kills the economy. Etc.

The US is not Greece. The dollar has been increasing in strength dramatically because our economy and bonds are so safe.

Second.

despite stories the us is about to get overrun, its not; it runs its own currency; is bigger than the eu, bigger than chinas economy and russia by a longshot.

if you want to llok to someone that the usa will follow, look to japan; the us is following the same policies and its resulting the same as japan; going no where.

my guess is that the usa has another 10 to 20 years of low growth with recessions while it works itself out and when other countries that have to default do, countries like japan and the usa will take that opportunity to pinch its people somewhat by making them an offer to take a larger responsibility in resolving the debt to avoid a default and then they right the ship for another 50 years or so until they got to do it all over again.

nobodyspecial

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #81 on: July 03, 2015, 02:31:53 PM »
despite stories the us is about to get overrun, its not; it runs its own currency; is bigger than the eu,
The entire EU market is bigger than the USA, the GDP of the euro countries (ie EU minus Britain) is smaller than the USA.


K-ice

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #82 on: July 09, 2015, 02:24:55 PM »
Since you asked a hypothetical question I will answer a bit differently: What if I was an MMM in Greece?

Hopefully I already have a paid off house as well as at least one rental.  I would have less in the bank and more under my bed.  This is not a new concept in Greece, as someone who has traveled there, one should always carry more cash for a few reasons.  At any point in time the bank machine filler guys, or the security guys or someone else could go on strike leaving you in a bind anyway. In North America the general rule is 3 months emergency bank account. There it should be a 3 month cash pillow. As for investing, I am not sure if a banking collapse can take away stocks. Sure the value might go down but I would be concerned with a Cyprus scenario. Best to have your $ spread across 3+ banks and a 1y emergency cash account along with the pillow. 

Continuing with the hypothetical dream,

At my home I would have a garden where the almond, orange, fig, mulberry, grape etc. trees all ripen at different times of the year so I save tones on groceries and will never starve. I would have the garden with lettuce, tomatoes etc too.   I hope to have a few chickens and maybe a goat so life is good. Almost no one wastes water on a lawn in Greece. Their small yards are utilised for food. And a MMM certainly would not have a lawn.  I would need to learn to make bread, cheese, yoghurt and preserves.  My home is small but comfortable. One washroom for the whole family, no ensuite. If I had more than one kid they probably share a room. Many small town/village Greeks still live like this. They are very poor but also frugal to a level that would make a MMM blush. Since, I live in a small town, I don’t give a S*&t if gas prices go up because I can walk to everything I need. But I would have 1 car and never let it get below ½ a tank. The gas guys are famous for going on strike too. Unfortunately, the vast majority of Greeks live in Athens where you can’t eat concrete so they are SOL. But an MMM in Greece would not live in a major city. Living in a small town and shopping locally I would hope to directly help my neighbour.

A lot of the Greeks seem to have forgotten their roots. Many became highly educated and moved to the cities where there were not enough bureaucratic government jobs to support everyone. At the same time, olives and oranges are falling to the ground and it is not worth someone’s time to pick them up. 

Anyway if I was an MMM in Greece that is how I would survive.  If the USA was Greece it would be harder, depending on the climate where you live.  But the same MMM principles could apply.

So, do the Greeks out there think I am a romantic nutcase or could this work?


 
 

gReed Smith

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #83 on: July 09, 2015, 03:41:05 PM »
Of cause this country also can (currently) print reserve currency which is does in abandon (de facto stealing from the rest of the world).

This is nonsense.  The fact that the dollar is a reserve currency is the choice of every country that chooses to use it as a reserve currency.  Inherent in that choice is acceptance of the risk of inflation, just like I accept that inflation may reduce the value of my cash emergency fund.

Lyssa

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #84 on: July 10, 2015, 11:04:26 AM »
The problem is not how low or high Greek tax rates are.
It's not the unemployment rate.
It's not early retirement on the state's dime.
And it's not even the massive overspending of the last decades.


The main problem is that Greece is not a developed country but it's citizens have grown accustomed to the lifestyle of a developed country.


Since the Turkish occupation - lasting a few hundred years - the Greek people habe viewed 'the state' as both their enemy and prey. Common people and the oligarchy got along just fine as long as each class let the other practise their brand of fraud and tax evasion.

Greece does not even have a land register! How the hell do you plan to attract investors if not even a simple due diligence re the title to a piece of land is possible?

One also needs to understand that about 90% of public servants are either incompetent or umwilling to work towards real change. Positions in the state administration were never given to the best man or woman for the job but handed out as goodies to reward family, friends and followers. Systematically. For decades.

The only way to effect real change from the outside would be some form of EU colonialism, replacing the Greek administration in its entirety. And that only realistic option to 'enforces change' is obvious madness.

So the EU has only two options left: pay indefinetly for a deeply broken and corrupt system (and be vilified for making demands or at least trying to do so) and cut its losses and walk away.

The second option is very uncomfortable for politicians like Merkel who have been telling their people that bailing out Greece is 'without alternative'. I'm afraid she would be willing to continue this nonsensical and expensive game for a few more years. I sincerely hope that the Eastern European states which have lower living standards, wages and pensions than Greece after all the cuts alteady made are going to put a stop to this and vote against another bailout.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2015, 02:58:35 AM by Lyssa »

gillstone

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #85 on: July 10, 2015, 12:51:24 PM »
Michael Lewis had a good piece on this in Vanity Fair back in 2010. http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010

It gives some scope to the debate about how Greece accrued its debt.

Quote
As it turned out, what the Greeks wanted to do, once the lights went out and they were alone in the dark with a pile of borrowed money, was turn their government into a piñata stuffed with fantastic sums and give as many citizens as possible a whack at it. In just the past decade the wage bill of the Greek public sector has doubled, in real terms—and that number doesn’t take into account the bribes collected by public officials. The average government job pays almost three times the average private-sector job. The national railroad has annual revenues of 100 million euros against an annual wage bill of 400 million, plus 300 million euros in other expenses. The average state railroad employee earns 65,000 euros a year. Twenty years ago a successful businessman turned minister of finance named Stefanos Manos pointed out that it would be cheaper to put all Greece’s rail passengers into taxicabs: it’s still true. “We have a railroad company which is bankrupt beyond comprehension,” Manos put it to me. “And yet there isn’t a single private company in Greece with that kind of average pay.” The Greek public-school system is the site of breathtaking inefficiency: one of the lowest-ranked systems in Europe, it nonetheless employs four times as many teachers per pupil as the highest-ranked, Finland’s. Greeks who send their children to public schools simply assume that they will need to hire private tutors to make sure they actually learn something. There are three government-owned defense companies: together they have billions of euros in debts, and mounting losses. The retirement age for Greek jobs classified as “arduous” is as early as 55 for men and 50 for women. As this is also the moment when the state begins to shovel out generous pensions, more than 600 Greek professions somehow managed to get themselves classified as arduous: hairdressers, radio announcers, waiters, musicians, and on and on and on. The Greek public health-care system spends far more on supplies than the European average—and it is not uncommon, several Greeks tell me, to see nurses and doctors leaving the job with their arms filled with paper towels and diapers and whatever else they can plunder from the supply closets.

nobodyspecial

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #86 on: July 10, 2015, 03:52:50 PM »
So the EU has only two options left: pay indefinetly for a deeply broken and corrupt system (and be vilified for making demands or at least trying to do so) and cut its losses and walk away.
Interesting article in the economist.
If Greek leaves the Euro but stays in the Eu then the rest of Europe will have to pour more aid into Greece than it would cost to write off the debt.
If Greece leaves the Euro it's credit rating will be so poor it will have to implement all the austerity cuts that it is currently resisting.

gillstone

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Re: What if WE (USA) were Greece ? Thoughts out loud
« Reply #87 on: July 10, 2015, 03:59:54 PM »
And the latest news is that Greece has essentially accepted the austerity plan that it rejected in a ballot four days ago.  The only hug difference is that their proposal is focused more on debt relief and a larger loan to cover a longer repayment period rather than cycling through loans like a client of a payday lender.