What do you think of ending Working from Home to support the economy?

[anni]

I used to work in restaurants and hotels before getting my first real job. I was always pretty impressed by how busy these places were and thought that those diners/travelers must be so wealthy to visit so often! Then I started traveling for work, with my unlimited hotel budget and $85 food per diem, and I realized that these restaurants and hotels were sustained by traveling workers' monopoly money. It felt really wasteful to me, even as I took advantage of it.

[American GenX]

Here's the thing...

Over the last decade Tesla and other companies have stated the fossil fuel is killing the planet and it would take decades to replace fuel/diesel cars on the cheap and by then it would be to late.

1.Work from home has move the goal post from decades to a few years.

You think it will take just a few years to replace all or most fuel/diesel cars?  That's quite a prediction.

[24andfrugal]

I can't really speak to my productivity in concrete numbers but I feel like I'm more efficient and definitely happier working from home.

I have a job with an hour-long commute each way, up an interstate that goes through a city. You can imagine how I felt about that. I was tired all the time and there was never enough time after work to feel like I was able to do anything. During busy periods, if my boss wanted me in on the weekends (salary, so no OT) I had to put in another 2 hours of driving beyond whatever I needed to do in the office. When covid started, I had just finished a horrible project I felt completely untrained and unprepared for, but which my boss felt I should have been able to figure out. As a result of this, I was put on probation, and as a result of probation, my request to WFH 1 day per MONTH was denied as they "couldn't trust me to get work done remotely".

Well.

In the 10 months I've been FT WFH, I'm off probation, my relationship with my boss has improved (their management style has changed a bit too), I received high praise on a project I worked for in another department, and all of my other work is getting done on schedule. This is in addition to me being much happier because I don't have to deal with traffic, spend $$ on gas, I get more sleep, I can wear casual clothes every day, and I see my parents much more often because we live fairly close to them but I never had time or energy while commuting. Even in the winter I can go for a walk after work and it's light out! How awesome is that?

I didn't eat out at the office, since why would I spend my dining budget on a work lunch? Now that we see my parents more often, and they eat out a lot, I feel like I eat out more than I otherwise would. We've also made a concerted effort to support local restaurants, so there's that too.

[mm1970]

There's plenty of slacking off in the office, but people are even worse when working from home.

Don't project your personal issues on the rest of us. My team's productivity is up since we went 100% WFH.

My company president was really worried about WFH and not being able to get things done.

It has resulted in adjustments to new tech...some people only respond to phone calls and texts, and ignore you otherwise.  But in general, most people are more productive when not having to be at the office.

Not all, though.  Those of us with kids at home sometimes are struggling.  Particularly those with very small children.  For that reason, I let my officemate use the office.

I knew that I could be more productive when WFH already though.  Many times in the last decades, I'd take work home for the weekend to get caught up, or I'd have to WFH with a sick kid - I'd take home what I thought was 5-8 hours of work and get it done in half the time.

At the office, I have an officemate.  I have 2-3 coworkers who come in and ask questions or complain about things.  Or they need something and it's distracting.  Then the same number of coworkers who come in and talk to the officemate.  Even my 8 yo isn't that annoying.  (At home, I can compartmentalize better.  If I need to concentrate for 2 hours to develop something new, I can do that much more easily at home.)

[LibrarIan]

To answer the topic question, I am against any governmental intervention that would meddle with the way we work, whether it's forcing people back into offices or forcing them to work from home. Let the chips fall where they may.

This work shift has been amazing for me, a software developer. I no longer have to pretend to be busy at a cubicle despite having completed everything. At home there are fewer meetings, fewer distractions, no commute, no restaurant temptations, no traffic, etc. I can sleep in longer, power through my work, and then monitor things for support issues as I do whatever I want. After I'm finished with my work responsibilities I'll often take on a home project, such as painting a room or repairing an appliance. I've gotten so much done on my house since March. Plus I have a newborn now and I can help my wife out with childcare sometimes during the day.

If the company/my supervisor decides I need to return to the office, I'll just quit and move to another IT position. Plenty of work out there. However, they know this. The company has been closing offices around the country and postponing return to office discussions until further notice.

[Rhinodad]

As a chef...albeit one who no longer works in the retail sector (restaurants/hotels/banquets), I find it laughable that we should prop up one business over another. These restaurants that are struggling, and it's sad, all opened to take advantage of a situation or market opportunity that they saw. There is inherent risk in that. Now, no one could predict this, but if a business isn't providing value anymore, then it's not a viable business...as sad as that is to say. I won't support any business that I don't think that I'm getting at least equal value than what I'm giving up...that's how all commerce works. To single out particular industries that are deemed "more important" is crazy.

I did listen to a podcast where the Chinese did a huge study on WFH, and they found that those that chose to work in the office got promoted quicker, got higher raises, and were offered more learning opportunities/career advancement, than those that chose to work from home.

[bwall]

As a chef...albeit one who no longer works in the retail sector (restaurants/hotels/banquets), I find it laughable that we should prop up one business over another. These restaurants that are struggling, and it's sad, all opened to take advantage of a situation or market opportunity that they saw. There is inherent risk in that. Now, no one could predict this, but if a business isn't providing value anymore, then it's not a viable business...as sad as that is to say. I won't support any business that I don't think that I'm getting at least equal value than what I'm giving up...that's how all commerce works. To single out particular industries that are deemed "more important" is crazy.

+1

Bold mine.

Why should anyone prop up a business simply because it's failing? Why reward failure? Why not give it more money because/when it's doing well instead?

As I see it, the economic dislocations will result in as-of-yet unforeseeable efficiencies. Unproductive workers will get sacked, thus they will be free to find productive work. Marginal restaurants (and other businesses) will close and free up resources for more efficient and productive businesses.

Pandemic induced creative destruction.

[mwulff]

As so many in this thread has stated, it doesn't make any sense to prop up businesses that are failing due to shifts in society. We didn't prop up the whip-makers, blacksmiths or the typographers.

As for working at home it has become a dual-edged sword for me personally. On the positive side it allows me to focus and accomplish in a few hours what would normally take around a full working day. I also get to listen to my own music and work when I feel like it.

The negative side of the WFH situation is definitely that the team has lost some cohesion and most of us are "socially lonely" in our work situation. I am blessed with a team where there is a high level of trust and the office environment is one of the best I have ever known. On a typical day you would hear laughter as jokes and banter flew around the office, social gatherings in our soft-chair-corner. I miss this so much, and the entire team regularly expresses how they all want to come back to the office together.

I know a team like ours is a rarity and we have an extremely high level of trust between us. There is this internal joke that the only difference between our software development team and Navy Seals is that they carry weapons.

I can only say that I miss it and 2020 sucked.

But all that being said we are discussing what we would like going forward and we want to get into a 3/2 or 2/3 situation when this is eventually over. So WFH for 3 days and 2 days at the office or vice versa.

[ReadyOrNot]

I can't calculate the number of hours workers have wasted commuting from home to work and back to home.  In the future, it will seem barbaric that people have to devote an hour or two per day just to go from one place to another to work.

I've WFH for quite some time. I can't ever imagine willingly giving up hours of my day to travel from one place to another *for free* so some boss can be happy that I'm physically in one place just to earn a paycheck.

You want me to go into the office? You pay me for the travel time back and forth.  Otherwise it's WFH.  It's nice being close to FIRE and having options.

[ender]

The negative side of the WFH situation is definitely that the team has lost some cohesion and most of us are "socially lonely" in our work situation. I am blessed with a team where there is a high level of trust and the office environment is one of the best I have ever known. On a typical day you would hear laughter as jokes and banter flew around the office, social gatherings in our soft-chair-corner. I miss this so much, and the entire team regularly expresses how they all want to come back to the office together.

One thing I was very intentional about on this front is setting up a during work hours happy hour with my immediate team, every week, from the start of covid.

I also setup a dedicated "not work" channel for my team on our Slack. I was deliberate in sharing there.

Those aren't perfect reproductions of the in office camaraderie but even though I was only on that team for about a year I felt like we had the strongest team cohesion of any team I've been on to date and almost all of it was virtual.

I don't know if you all have tried anything like this but I found it pretty effective.

[Adventine]

@ender Those are good ideas. Hopefully others can use them.

The only caveat I can see is, the team dynamics should have been healthy in the first place, pre-WFH. If the relationships were already strained, I could easily see these ideas backfiring.

[John Galt incarnate!]

I can't calculate the number of hours workers have wasted commuting from home to work and back to home.  In the future, it will seem barbaric that people have to devote an hour or two per day just to go from one place to another to work.

I've WFH for quite some time. I can't ever imagine willingly giving up hours of my day to travel from one place to another *for free* so some boss can be happy that I'm physically in one place just to earn a paycheck.

You want me to go into the office? You pay me for the travel time back and forth.  Otherwise it's WFH.  It's nice being close to FIRE and having options.

Life is finite.

Requiring "working at the office" also requires commuting  to and from it and all of commuting's  drawbacks.

This  is an unforgivable requirement  if the employee wants to WFH  and demonstrated that when they WFH they meet or exceed all performance metrics.

[Uturn]

I like working in the office, but I don't like commuting.  Showering, putting on nice clothes, driving in.  It's a slog. However, since I live alone, I have far too much alone time.  Besides, it's nice to see something other than the inside of my house.  Now if I could only get this teleporter working.

[maizefolk]

I like working in the office, but I don't like commuting.  Showering, putting on nice clothes, driving in.  It's a slog. However, since I live alone, I have far too much alone time.  Besides, it's nice to see something other than the inside of my house.  Now if I could only get this teleporter working.

In principle could a teleporter also handle dressing and showering? (Teleport me from one set of clothes and into another, and don't teleport and dirt/grime/sweat.)

[mathlete]

ctrl+f "buggy whip".

Yep! There it is.

I think we should pump the break on "the office economy" until the pandemic is over. It's very possible that people simply don't want to stay in their homes all day and will invent reasons to go to cafes or collaborate in work spaces or do a mid-day escape room. If there's still a net drag on the consumption economy, then we can reorganize and hopefully find more productive work for the displaced to do. If not, UBI time baybeee!

More holistically, I do worry about permanent WFH having negative effects, but on the people who WFH. Human beings need community, and while the office isn't the only place to get community, it's a big one.

The Internet is a great source of community too of course. I have friends all over the country and the world thanks to the Internet. I've hung out with friends on both coasts from the Internet. I've gone to weddings of people I've met online. But even with occasional meetups, online relationships are not the same as flesh and blood relationships.

A few years ago I was getting drinks with a local friend at a bar when she started having an emotional breakdown. I had to quickly settle the tab and drive her somewhere safe so she could calm down and unload on what was bothering her. If a friend has an emotional breakdown in a Discord chat, I have the option to just put my phone away and  assume someone else will handle it. But how well does the person really "know" the people in chat who are going to be "there for them"? Is some creep going to try to take advantage of an emotionally compromised person? Are people splintering off into smaller group chats to discuss "how crazy it is that so and so is breaking down?" This stuff happens all the fucking time online.

Something is clearly lost in translation there. We can treat each other however we want online because at the end of the day, we don't have to be together. In some sense, that's good. The optionality of friendship. I encourage everyone to cut toxic people out of their lives. But for other challenges, in person, you're more likely to push through and come out better. If it's just the people who live in your phone, you can just switch apps and see what's up on Twitter instead.

[mathlete]

Speaking to the article itself, I do think it's important to consider what we're giving up when we start making major changes. Value will absolutely be lost if workers don't return to offices. Is that enough to outlaw WFH? Almost certainly not, but it's worth considering.

What are we losing, and do we have a suitable replacement for it? These are questions we should always be considering as a society.

Some other examples: What is lost in the transition from defined benefits to defined contribution retirement plans? What do we lose when we stop going to church?

That kind of stuff.

[OtherJen]

More holistically, I do worry about permanent WFH having negative effects, but on the people who WFH. Human beings need community, and while the office isn't the only place to get community, it's a big one.

The Internet is a great source of community too of course. I have friends all over the country and the world thanks to the Internet. I've hung out with friends on both coasts from the Internet. I've gone to weddings of people I've met online. But even with occasional meetups, online relationships are not the same as flesh and blood relationships.

I actually think that it isn't healthy to have the workplace be the main source of community. I've seen the effects of that on my parents. It's been isolating on my dad since his retirement, and I think it's one of the reasons why my mom refuses to retire. She has no idea what she'd do without the workplace. Neither of them have non-work friends, and they only socialize with their few siblings who are alive and haven't moved out of state.

There are options for community between the extremes of only the workplace and only online forums. Since I've worked from home full time for 8 years, I've been able to do volunteer work and join community groups for socialization. It's been great because I'm an introvert and was able to socialize because I wanted to, which is way less draining on my energy levels than being forced to spend 40+ hours a week in an office or lab. This year has been really difficult in large part because all of my in-person volunteer work and community groups have been put on hiatus or moved online.

[CodingHare]

I actually think that it isn't healthy to have the workplace be the main source of community. I've seen the effects of that on my parents. It's been isolating on my dad since his retirement, and I think it's one of the reasons why my mom refuses to retire. She has no idea what she'd do without the workplace. Neither of them have non-work friends, and they only socialize with their few siblings who are alive and haven't moved out of state.
...

Yeah, this is my parents as well.  Definitely pushed me to build my friend group outside of work.  I'm still friends with a few old coworkers, but I find that once you switch jobs most coworkers magically forget about you.  Meanwhile, I've been friends with my local knitting group through 3 job changes wand two moves.

Anyway, I think this pandemic has proven that a whole bunch of "essential office jobs" are actually essential "doesn't matter where the employee's butt is" jobs.  I tried to get my job to consider full time WFH about 5 months into the pandemic and was told that (a) some people were voluntarily going back to the office and (b) full or even partial time WFH was impossible for us, despite meeting goals for 5 months.

Which was the business's priority.  I job hunted and took a slight paycut to get a full time WFH job that will remain WFH after the pandemic.  Life is too short to waste on commuting.

[mathlete]

More holistically, I do worry about permanent WFH having negative effects, but on the people who WFH. Human beings need community, and while the office isn't the only place to get community, it's a big one.

The Internet is a great source of community too of course. I have friends all over the country and the world thanks to the Internet. I've hung out with friends on both coasts from the Internet. I've gone to weddings of people I've met online. But even with occasional meetups, online relationships are not the same as flesh and blood relationships.

I actually think that it isn't healthy to have the workplace be the main source of community. I've seen the effects of that on my parents. It's been isolating on my dad since his retirement, and I think it's one of the reasons why my mom refuses to retire. She has no idea what she'd do without the workplace. Neither of them have non-work friends, and they only socialize with their few siblings who are alive and haven't moved out of state.

There are options for community between the extremes of only the workplace and only online forums. Since I've worked from home full time for 8 years, I've been able to do volunteer work and join community groups for socialization. It's been great because I'm an introvert and was able to socialize because I wanted to, which is way less draining on my energy levels than being forced to spend 40+ hours a week in an office or lab. This year has been really difficult in large part because all of my in-person volunteer work and community groups have been put on hiatus or moved online.

Of course I agree. I also think people should have communities outside of church too. But a working age adult, full time, spends around 35% of their waking hours at work. So a god fearing worker had much of their community built for them for the past however many years.

As secularization and WFH become the norm, I think we're going to end up with a lot of lonely people unless we have ready made alternatives because trying to make new friends as an adult, with no prebaked structure is a fucking beatdown.

[Samuel]

I like working in the office, but I don't like commuting.  Showering, putting on nice clothes, driving in.  It's a slog. However, since I live alone, I have far too much alone time.  Besides, it's nice to see something other than the inside of my house.  Now if I could only get this teleporter working.

In principle could a teleporter also handle dressing and showering? (Teleport me from one set of clothes and into another, and don't teleport and dirt/grime/sweat.)

Calibration would be key. It could take the old "caught in the zipper" problem to a whole other level...

[24andfrugal]

More holistically, I do worry about permanent WFH having negative effects, but on the people who WFH. Human beings need community, and while the office isn't the only place to get community, it's a big one.

The Internet is a great source of community too of course. I have friends all over the country and the world thanks to the Internet. I've hung out with friends on both coasts from the Internet. I've gone to weddings of people I've met online. But even with occasional meetups, online relationships are not the same as flesh and blood relationships.

I actually think that it isn't healthy to have the workplace be the main source of community. I've seen the effects of that on my parents. It's been isolating on my dad since his retirement, and I think it's one of the reasons why my mom refuses to retire. She has no idea what she'd do without the workplace. Neither of them have non-work friends, and they only socialize with their few siblings who are alive and haven't moved out of state.

There are options for community between the extremes of only the workplace and only online forums. Since I've worked from home full time for 8 years, I've been able to do volunteer work and join community groups for socialization. It's been great because I'm an introvert and was able to socialize because I wanted to, which is way less draining on my energy levels than being forced to spend 40+ hours a week in an office or lab. This year has been really difficult in large part because all of my in-person volunteer work and community groups have been put on hiatus or moved online.

Of course I agree. I also think people should have communities outside of church too. But a working age adult, full time, spends around 35% of their waking hours at work. So a god fearing worker had much of their community built for them for the past however many years.

As secularization and WFH become the norm, I think we're going to end up with a lot of lonely people unless we have ready made alternatives because trying to make new friends as an adult, with no prebaked structure is a fucking beatdown.

There's two sides to this. I loved the people on my floor at my old job. We joked around, shot the breeze, just generally got along really well. The job I'm WFH from...I like my coworkers, but in the office environment I often felt like I didn't really fit in. As an example, several people from my cube cluster would IM each other to get together for lunch in the break room. At a predetermined time they'd all get up to go eat, passing by my cube in the process, and then I'd go out for a walk and see everyone (except me) huddled around a table having lunch. I hadn't felt left out like that since high school. So I don't miss that at all.

But I do agree that humans are built to have in-person interaction and face-to-face relationships. More than just work, I worry about how pretty much every aspect of our lives has turned online (you can't bump into a neighbor at the grocery store if you're having groceries delivered).

[mathlete]

There's two sides to this. I loved the people on my floor at my old job. We joked around, shot the breeze, just generally got along really well. The job I'm WFH from...I like my coworkers, but in the office environment I often felt like I didn't really fit in. As an example, several people from my cube cluster would IM each other to get together for lunch in the break room. At a predetermined time they'd all get up to go eat, passing by my cube in the process, and then I'd go out for a walk and see everyone (except me) huddled around a table having lunch. I hadn't felt left out like that since high school. So I don't miss that at all.

But I do agree that humans are built to have in-person interaction and face-to-face relationships. More than just work, I worry about how pretty much every aspect of our lives has turned online (you can't bump into a neighbor at the grocery store if you're having groceries delivered).

Fair point. Not all work interactions are good.

[TomTX]

I'm right. 

Thanks for confirming you are a "butts-in-seats-you're-the-peon" type manager.

Really burned you up that my team is more productive WFH, eh? 

Oh, and as far as the aspersions you have been casting: My boss agrees with my assessment, as does his boss. I just had a "rockstar, walks-on-water" type annual eval.

[TomTX]

NO.  I think a lot of people have been less productive working from home during the pandemic because they’re trying to homeschool their kids at the same time.  Let’s not forget these aren’t optimal conditions.  A lot of other people are horrible workers with no self-motivation who already waste time in the office and even more so at home.  I’ve been fully work from home for about ten years though and have always gotten larger than average raises and bonuses because I get stuff done.  I am very efficient about it though (I’m a programmer and I automate everything), so like others in this thread I rarely have to work 40 hours a week to accomplish twice as much as your average unmotivated worker who is used to bullshitting in person all day with coworkers.

Not just parents trying to deal with kids. I worked on the couch for months. I got a desk and proper chair a few months ago, and I just bought a 2nd monitor. It is not ideal trying to work with one small monitor while physically uncomfortable. I've had coworkers switching between the kitchen table, the couch, and other less than ideal setups. It matters.

Oh, absolutely. Huge difference for me. Back in March when we got the word "Get what you need, work from home" - I set up a dedicated, separate work area with a large desk desk, dock, external monitors, my good keyboard and mouse, notepads, etc.

[calimom]

I'm vaguely curious as to what @blackomen 's occupation is that is so invaluable to our economy and society that we can live without their contributions. Because of course sandwich makers, air traffic controllers, business travel hospitality workers seem so expendable in their world. So tell us, please, what it is you do.

[blackomen]

I'm vaguely curious as to what @blackomen 's occupation is that is so invaluable to our economy and society that we can live without their contributions. Because of course sandwich makers, air traffic controllers, business travel hospitality workers seem so expendable in their world. So tell us, please, what it is you do.

Computer programmer

[Chris22]

I was slightly less productive at first, but I gradually bought a desk, office chair, second monitor, etc etc etc.

Then I moved and the new house had an entire dedicated office for me and another for my wife, complete with large desk, two big monitors, all kinds of stuff.  I’m now equally as efficient in the office as before because it’s literally identical to what I used to have.

However now I work modified hours. Rather than being tied to a train schedule (almost always in about 8:20 and rushing to leave to make the 5:25 or 6:15) I am on at about 715, take a 30 min break to bring the kids to school, come back and work, lunch is 10 steps away in the kitchen instead of going to the cafeteria or a restaurant, maybe knock out a 30 min Peloton ride, then it’s another pickup break around 330, back to work at 4, work until 530ish, eat dinner, and then hop back on after the kids go to bed if necessary, whatever. If it’s slow I can do laundry. If I get up early on the weekends I’ll pop into my office to knock out an hour of work while the family sleeps.  Work stops being one giant chunk of my day and more of something I do around the other things I have going on. I work probably more hours in exchange for much more flexibility. Everyone wins and everyone is happy.

[Bloop Bloop Reloaded]

I'm vaguely curious as to what @blackomen 's occupation is that is so invaluable to our economy and society that we can live without their contributions. Because of course sandwich makers, air traffic controllers, business travel hospitality workers seem so expendable in their world. So tell us, please, what it is you do.

No one is saying that sandwich makers shouldn't have a job, more that we shouldn't go out of our way to keep them in a job if we have no need for their services.

The OP has said he or she is a computer programmer, which is a great example of a job where low-skilled workers are mercilessly outsourced while high-skill workers still command good pay and good conditions. That's just modern life. Adapt or get used to the welfare safety net.

[calimom]

I'm vaguely curious as to what @blackomen 's occupation is that is so invaluable to our economy and society that we can live without their contributions. Because of course sandwich makers, air traffic controllers, business travel hospitality workers seem so expendable in their world. So tell us, please, what it is you do.

No one is saying that sandwich makers shouldn't have a job, more that we shouldn't go out of our way to keep them in a job if we have no need for their services.

The OP has said he or she is a computer programmer, which is a great example of a job where low-skilled workers are mercilessly outsourced while high-skill workers still command good pay and good conditions. That's just modern life. Adapt or get used to the welfare safety net.

It's hard to argue that from a quality-of-life or environmental standpoint that WFH can be very beneficial.  It's also important that many, many resources and jobs go to support a business as usual commuting, 9 to 5 workforce. Not to mention business travel, which is way off. And sure many of the jobs are low-level baristas or office cleaners. But remember Marriott, Delta, Starbucks and Cushman Wakefield employ far more than entry level workers, computer programmers and software developers as well. Many of whom currently WFH. It goes without saying that if business is down in those sectors, it will impact all of the workers. And affect those of us who have commercial real estate or Starbucks in our investment portfolios.

Yes, of course, we can pivot. But how much? What happens to millions of square feet of commercial property that's suddenly on the market?

[nereo]

Yes, of course, we can pivot. But how much? What happens to millions of square feet of commercial property that's suddenly on the market?

This isn’t anything new.  When the Great Recession hit there was a ton of discussion about how the US built way too much commercial and retail space.  The buzzword was/is “over-stored”.  We’ve got more than any other country and (at least through 2019) more than we’ve ever had on a per-capita basis.  In short, it’s a bubble. 

>..and the crappy thing is, bubbles pop. Which seems like what’s ongoing right now (ok, it’s more like the air leaking out of an overinflated balloon rather than a ‘burst’).  Our policy tools are fairly limited; we can try to prop up the industry for a while (which we’ve done and the Administration/ Fed continue to support through programs like the PPP), and/or we can ease the financial burden via our social safety net, which in the US is pretty terrible.

What seems ludicrous to me is trying to maintain a level of commercial real-estate space that we all knew was absurdly high just for the sake of maintaining the status quo.  Malls will close, hotels will shutter and many brick-and-mortar stores will go vacant.  We had far too many, and the decade+ boom allowed a lot to survive that probably shouldn’t have. 

[ender]

I think on the whole relatively few employers will fully shift to 100% remote work.

My company has hired a bunch of fully remote folks (myself included) but there are a ton of folks really eager to get back to the office.

WFH is not for everyone. I love it. But not everyone will love it.

I do think there are some considerations on what happens if everyone works remotely too, or at least a sizable percentage of population. Does this mean consumption on the whole will go way up as people move away from city centers and buy larger homes vs renting smaller apartments? It might not be such an obvious win environmentally or from a sustainability perspective.

[Imma]

I'm vaguely curious as to what @blackomen 's occupation is that is so invaluable to our economy and society that we can live without their contributions. Because of course sandwich makers, air traffic controllers, business travel hospitality workers seem so expendable in their world. So tell us, please, what it is you do.

No one is saying that sandwich makers shouldn't have a job, more that we shouldn't go out of our way to keep them in a job if we have no need for their services.

The OP has said he or she is a computer programmer, which is a great example of a job where low-skilled workers are mercilessly outsourced while high-skill workers still command good pay and good conditions. That's just modern life. Adapt or get used to the welfare safety net.

It's hard to argue that from a quality-of-life or environmental standpoint that WFH can be very beneficial.  It's also important that many, many resources and jobs go to support a business as usual commuting, 9 to 5 workforce. Not to mention business travel, which is way off. And sure many of the jobs are low-level baristas or office cleaners. But remember Marriott, Delta, Starbucks and Cushman Wakefield employ far more than entry level workers, computer programmers and software developers as well. Many of whom currently WFH. It goes without saying that if business is down in those sectors, it will impact all of the workers. And affect those of us who have commercial real estate or Starbucks in our investment portfolios.

Yes, of course, we can pivot. But how much? What happens to millions of square feet of commercial property that's suddenly on the market?

The latter is actually a great development in my country with a massive housing shortage and tons of commercial real estate. Many employers see those opportunities as well. There are many projects being developed to convert former office spaces into apartments. These days companies often only have 0,6 desks per employee, or even less.

I don't think most companies or employees will want to WFH 100%, but I do also think that the days of 9 to 5 butts in seats is over. People will come to the office for meetings and for social contact, but probably not 40 hours a week anymore. 9 to 5 was already on the way out, Covid has just accelerated that. But I don't think it's the end of coffee shops and fastfood chains. The patterns will shift. People may want to meet their friend for coffee before going back to home to work. They may want to go on a lunchtime walk and grab a sandwich somewhere. People are still going to want social contact and they will still enjoy the hospitality industry. Just in different patterns than they used to.

Business travel was already a lot less common than it was in the 80s and 90s - I remember how often my parents went on business trips. I hardly ever had them in a similar line of work, even pre-Covid, because these days we don't have to wait days for international mail to arrive and international phone calls aren't as extremely expensive as they used to be. Dads spend much more time with their children than they did in the past. In the 80s many business trips included entertainment for the "travelling spouse" because it was almost the norm that a wife would join her husband for all his trips. Thos days are long gone.

[Dicey]

Yes, of course, we can pivot. But how much? What happens to millions of square feet of commercial property that's suddenly on the market?

This isn’t anything new.  When the Great Recession hit there was a ton of discussion about how the US built way too much commercial and retail space.  The buzzword was/is “over-stored”.  We’ve got more than any other country and (at least through 2019) more than we’ve ever had on a per-capita basis.  In short, it’s a bubble. 

>..and the crappy thing is, bubbles pop. Which seems like what’s ongoing right now (ok, it’s more like the air leaking out of an overinflated balloon rather than a ‘burst’).  Our policy tools are fairly limited; we can try to prop up the industry for a while (which we’ve done and the Administration/ Fed continue to support through programs like the PPP), and/or we can ease the financial burden via our social safety net, which in the US is pretty terrible.

What seems ludicrous to me is trying to maintain a level of commercial real-estate space that we all knew was absurdly high just for the sake of maintaining the status quo.  Malls will close, hotels will shutter and many brick-and-mortar stores will go vacant.  We had far too many, and the decade+ boom allowed a lot to survive that probably shouldn’t have.

How much of this overbuilding is because of REITs?

[nereo]

I don’t know.  Certainly REIT’s played some part, but how much I’ll let someone else guess...

[Dicey]

I don’t know.  Certainly REIT’s played some part, but how much I’ll let someone else guess...

I've never given REITs much thought, as my (now our) portfolio has always been rather heavy in Real Estate, thanks to being homeowners in a HCOLA. I recently read somewhere on this forum that those who run REITs are under constant pressure to put deals together. It makes sense that they're profit motivated and "What can we build that investors will buy into?" was the real question, not, "Does the world need another shopping center/strip mall/movie theater complex/office park/whatever?"

[fuzzy math]

More holistically, I do worry about permanent WFH having negative effects, but on the people who WFH. Human beings need community, and while the office isn't the only place to get community, it's a big one.

The Internet is a great source of community too of course. I have friends all over the country and the world thanks to the Internet. I've hung out with friends on both coasts from the Internet. I've gone to weddings of people I've met online. But even with occasional meetups, online relationships are not the same as flesh and blood relationships.

I actually think that it isn't healthy to have the workplace be the main source of community. I've seen the effects of that on my parents. It's been isolating on my dad since his retirement, and I think it's one of the reasons why my mom refuses to retire. She has no idea what she'd do without the workplace. Neither of them have non-work friends, and they only socialize with their few siblings who are alive and haven't moved out of state.

There are options for community between the extremes of only the workplace and only online forums. Since I've worked from home full time for 8 years, I've been able to do volunteer work and join community groups for socialization. It's been great because I'm an introvert and was able to socialize because I wanted to, which is way less draining on my energy levels than being forced to spend 40+ hours a week in an office or lab. This year has been really difficult in large part because all of my in-person volunteer work and community groups have been put on hiatus or moved online.

It isn't healthy but it is a way to pass the time for some who already have to spend 40 hours a week assigned to a task. The real shift in this would come not from work at an office vs work from home, but in having to dedicate less hours to a job which would allow more time for personal interests and socialization.
My husband is an introvert and had a really hard time assessing his coworker's meanings / attitudes / wishes for the first few months of working from home. He found it easier to be in person and have some structure, rather than kind of aimlessly doing work and attending zoom meetings.

My work cannot be done from home, I don't imagine it would be good for me mentally to be at home.

[TheFrenchCat]

NO.  I think a lot of people have been less productive working from home during the pandemic because they’re trying to homeschool their kids at the same time.  Let’s not forget these aren’t optimal conditions.  A lot of other people are horrible workers with no self-motivation who already waste time in the office and even more so at home.  I’ve been fully work from home for about ten years though and have always gotten larger than average raises and bonuses because I get stuff done.  I am very efficient about it though (I’m a programmer and I automate everything), so like others in this thread I rarely have to work 40 hours a week to accomplish twice as much as your average unmotivated worker who is used to bullshitting in person all day with coworkers.

Agreed.  I was also WFH before the pandemic and it was a lot easier to get work and other stuff done while my daughter was in school.  Now she's home doing virtual school, which gives me a bit of a break, but I still need to help her with some of it, so it's not like I can get long, focused amounts of work done.  I'm doing chunks here a there and taking more breaks to help out when needed.  So now I'm doing 30  minutes to maybe an hour if I'm lucky at a time, instead of the 2-3 hour stretches I used to be able to do. 

[Just Joe]

Why should anyone prop up a business simply because it's failing? Why reward failure? Why not give it more money because/when it's doing well instead?

As I see it, the economic dislocations will result in as-of-yet unforeseeable efficiencies. Unproductive workers will get sacked, thus they will be free to find productive work. Marginal restaurants (and other businesses) will close and free up resources for more efficient and productive businesses.

Pandemic induced creative destruction.

I'm not sure that anyone is strictly propping up a failure of a business. In my town, if we don't visit the Mom n' Pop shops and restaurants they will close up and fade away leaving us no alternatives but McDonalds or WalMart of TacoBell or similar. I'm very over these brands.

Its the Mom 'n Pop businesses that give this place soul, otherwise it becomes very much the same as every other exit on every other interstate.

The mediocre, discount shopping and eating establishments have deeper pockets and will weather 2020-2021 better.

[phildonnia]

This is another repackaging of the "Broken Window Fallacy".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window

If we all started throwing rocks at windows, it would stimulate the economy: more revenue for glass production industries, and more work for glaziers; both of which spend their earnings in our economy, providing jobs and higher pay to everyone.

I mean, if we want to save the office-space businesses that we don't need or want, we could just give them the money, and it would be more efficient than making buildings and occupying them for the sake of form.

[Imma]

Why should anyone prop up a business simply because it's failing? Why reward failure? Why not give it more money because/when it's doing well instead?

As I see it, the economic dislocations will result in as-of-yet unforeseeable efficiencies. Unproductive workers will get sacked, thus they will be free to find productive work. Marginal restaurants (and other businesses) will close and free up resources for more efficient and productive businesses.

Pandemic induced creative destruction.

I'm not sure that anyone is strictly propping up a failure of a business. In my town, if we don't visit the Mom n' Pop shops and restaurants they will close up and fade away leaving us no alternatives but McDonalds or WalMart of TacoBell or similar. I'm very over these brands.

Its the Mom 'n Pop businesses that give this place soul, otherwise it becomes very much the same as every other exit on every other interstate.

The mediocre, discount shopping and eating establishments have deeper pockets and will weather 2020-2021 better.

I actually see the opposite happening in my city. Due to the pandemic, people are very aware of the situation local businesses are in and have suddenly realized that they may cease to exist if we don't support them through this period. A lot of people make a conscious effort to shop locally now. A lot of people (and businesses) bought Christmas gifts from local independent shops. Way more than usual. The big chains are suffering now, especially fastfood chains, because they are located in high-traffic areas that are now deserted. No one is driving home from work and passing a MacDrive, but people do go on a lunchtime walk and pass by the local independent bakery or coffee shop. And as for retail, a lot of independent stores offer fast home service now. You don't have to wait days until your parcel is finally delivered, they load up your order and drive to your house the second the order comes in. Especially for clothing this is very efficient and I've seen several people in my street use this: you order online, the shop employee drives to your house with several sizes, you try it on while the employee waits outside and they take back what doesn't fit. Much more convenient than ordering online and only smaller shops can organize these kind of services fast.

[Plina]

My brothers employer that is a major employer in the city with app 2300 employees gave giftcards of the equivalent of app. 50 usd to every employee for christmas to be used in local shops. My brother got two of those that we used in a local deli. They did the same thing in two other cities they have operations in. Normally, they give some expensive household thing to every one.