What do you think of "Let's make a millionaire"?

[FIREfly34]

https://www.reddit.com/r/millionairemakers/comments/6ordla/lets_make_a_millionaire_together_comment_to_enter/

Of course gambling isn't exactly Mustachian, but for a dollar I might try it sometime.

[TheAnonOne]

I think they don't have a million donators.

[kudy]

I've always enjoyed a bit of gambling...

The most interesting thing about this concept is nothing compels people to give $1 to the chosen winner except their own honesty, and it appears most entrants don't, but enough people are sending the money that it's sort of working.

[TomTX]

I think they don't have a million donators.

Judging by prior threads, it's more like "Lets make a thousandaire!"

[dandarc]

I mean, if you are actually going to pay the $1 if you don't win, you're probably better off just buying a real lottery ticket once per month.

Lotteries are bad bets - 50% house edge isn't uncommon.  But in this case, with no way to bill for money owed, the question is the proportion of payers to non-payers is pretty low.  Back of the napkin based on $4K from last drawing - if there were 8,000 entries (65K comments on that one) or more, you're doing worse than a real lottery.  The proportion of payers to non-payers is even larger than that might indicate - looks like of those who pay, at least some are paying more ($2-50) than they are supposed to, if you can believe the comments in the "Winners" thread.

So the play is to be a dick.  Play but don't pay.  Enough of that kills this, which is why it is such a bad deal, particularly for anyone paying more than they're supposed to.

If you're inclined to participate in this and you're not going to be a dick, know you're losing $.80 or more on every dollar you pay in.

[Rosy]

What a fascinating concept and interesting study in human behaviour this is:)

So the possibility exists to make someone a millionaire, but the reality is a "thousandaire" with the last winner receiving about $4400.

Whoever the 4400 are who paid $1 and even up to $50 in Paypal, bitcoins and whatever, that alone is fascinating:) to me - makes them the ones to keep this lottery afloat.
So 60,000 commented, but only about 4000 or so donated. Doesn't that make your chance one in 4000?
It seems to vary, some have received more and some have received less.

All in all, a chance of one in 4000 doesn't seem to be a bad deal - I've taken and won lesser odds than that. Who knows, maybe I'll partake - I happen to be one of the ones who keep their commitments - interesting to see how many do not, surely those statistics translate into more interesting psychological topics.

Gambling to me is about optimism, if you don't think you will win, then you'll never enter. If you think it is a waste of money and statistically speaking it probably is, you will never enter.
I simply like the idea that the odds might be in my favvvoaahhh:)

[dandarc]

What a fascinating concept and interesting study in human behaviour this is:)

So the possibility exists to make someone a millionaire, but the reality is a "thousandaire" with the last winner receiving about $4400.

Whoever the 4400 are who paid $1 and even up to $50 in Paypal, bitcoins and whatever, that alone is fascinating:) to me - makes them the ones to keep this lottery afloat.
So 60,000 commented, but only about 4000 or so donated. Doesn't that make your chance one in 4000?
It seems to vary, some have received more and some have received less.

All in all, a chance of one in 4000 doesn't seem to be a bad deal - I've taken and won lesser odds than that. Who knows, maybe I'll partake - I happen to be one of the ones who keep their commitments - interesting to see how many do not, surely those statistics translate into more interesting psychological topics.

Gambling to me is about optimism, if you don't think you will win, then you'll never enter. If you think it is a waste of money and statistically speaking it probably is, you will never enter.
I simply like the idea that the odds might be in my favvvoaahhh:)

They pick the winner before they know who will actually give, so the chance to win is 1 in 60,000, assuming 60,000 comments.  The expected prize is about $4,000.  It varies, as you've noted, but nowhere near the $60K you'd expect if everyone paid the way they are supposed to.

This can be a positive expected value thing - if you don't pay like you are supposed to, then this is a free shot at $4,000.  But if you do pay your $1, you're losing over 90% to the "house".  In this case, the house is all of the people playing but not paying.

The way to look at this if you participate is, in my opinion - in all likelihood, I'm giving someone a dollar once per month, which is a nice thing to do and $1 per month isn't much.  In aggregate the winner will get a non-trivial amount of money, and so we'll get a thank-you / story thread, which is also nice.  If you look at it as gambling, it is a really stupid bet to make.