Author Topic: What comes after the ACA?  (Read 1838005 times)

jim555

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3110
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6850 on: August 27, 2021, 07:36:29 AM »
Looks like the Medicare age change is not happening...

"Meanwhile, one major progressive demand is probably on the cutting-room floor.

Democrats arenít expected to include a measure lowering Medicareís eligibility age in the package, first reported by Politico, and confirmed by a Senate Democratic aide and multiple sources off the Hill. "

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/08/26/health-202-democrats-have-three-weeks-get-their-health-game/

brooklynmoney

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 707
  • Location: Crooklyn
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6851 on: August 28, 2021, 08:02:23 AM »
I will be so sad if the Medicare age is not lowered. I think Iím too risk adverse to quit more than 5 years out from Medicare age even though I pretty much have enough saved now. I am currently 18 years out from Medicare so I could work an extra 10 plus years just for reliable access to good health insurance.

American GenX

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 948
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6852 on: August 28, 2021, 09:41:33 AM »
I will be so sad if the Medicare age is not lowered. I think Iím too risk adverse to quit more than 5 years out from Medicare age even though I pretty much have enough saved now. I am currently 18 years out from Medicare so I could work an extra 10 plus years just for reliable access to good health insurance.

I know I brought it up, but I never really felt the lower age of eligibility had a good chance of making it through and would cost more than an ACA plan with subsidies.

It also looks like the other improvements will be scaled back, means tested, or otherwise scrapped as well.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/27/health-lobbies-democrats-medicare-506977

jim555

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3110
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6853 on: August 28, 2021, 10:09:52 AM »
I will be so sad if the Medicare age is not lowered. I think Iím too risk adverse to quit more than 5 years out from Medicare age even though I pretty much have enough saved now. I am currently 18 years out from Medicare so I could work an extra 10 plus years just for reliable access to good health insurance.
Medicare will cost me more than the ACA by far.  If you are in NY coverage is basically free under 200% FPL with the ACA.

Exflyboy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7948
  • Age: 61
  • Location: Corvallis, Oregon
  • Expat Brit living in the New World..:)
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6854 on: August 28, 2021, 11:03:19 AM »
Yup.. I calculated that Medicare for DW and I will cost roughly the same as what I'll get from Social Security (after I get whacked with  WEP).

Hence I ignore SS in wealth planning because its gonna get burned up with HC costs.... Tax implications are not counted in my analysis.

Under the ACA I pay about $10/month for a Bronze plan.

brooklynmoney

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 707
  • Location: Crooklyn
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6855 on: August 28, 2021, 11:47:33 AM »
I will be so sad if the Medicare age is not lowered. I think Iím too risk adverse to quit more than 5 years out from Medicare age even though I pretty much have enough saved now. I am currently 18 years out from Medicare so I could work an extra 10 plus years just for reliable access to good health insurance.
Medicare will cost me more than the ACA by far.  If you are in NY coverage is basically free under 200% FPL with the ACA.

Yeah ACA for people 50+ in NY seems like a great deal. For better or worse, I moved to NJ and its different. The 50+ plans seem a lot more epensive.

pecunia

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2582
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6856 on: August 28, 2021, 12:36:41 PM »
Yup.. I calculated that Medicare for DW and I will cost roughly the same as what I'll get from Social Security (after I get whacked with  WEP).

Hence I ignore SS in wealth planning because its gonna get burned up with HC costs.... Tax implications are not counted in my analysis.

Under the ACA I pay about $10/month for a Bronze plan.

Yeh - You will be paying more than that with medicare premiums and in addition there will be supplemental insurance.  Medicare advantage may look cheaper, but it's got some holes in it.  It's actually an advantage to you if they do not lower the age.

jim555

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3110
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6857 on: August 28, 2021, 12:38:02 PM »
Yeah ACA for people 50+ in NY seems like a great deal. For better or worse, I moved to NJ and its different. The 50+ plans seem a lot more epensive.
Are you outside the subsidy zone?   

Exflyboy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7948
  • Age: 61
  • Location: Corvallis, Oregon
  • Expat Brit living in the New World..:)
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6858 on: August 28, 2021, 12:54:55 PM »
Yup.. I calculated that Medicare for DW and I will cost roughly the same as what I'll get from Social Security (after I get whacked with  WEP).

Hence I ignore SS in wealth planning because its gonna get burned up with HC costs.... Tax implications are not counted in my analysis.

Under the ACA I pay about $10/month for a Bronze plan.

Yeh - You will be paying more than that with medicare premiums and in addition there will be supplemental insurance.  Medicare advantage may look cheaper, but it's got some holes in it.  It's actually an advantage to you if they do not lower the age.

Exactly, and as the ACA is improved as of Jan 1st 2022.. Like you can go into an ER anywhere in the country and only pay your in-network rates.. Well the ACA looks like a much better deal... Still a $7k deductible/max OOP but the monthly is virtually free... Great if you are in good health and don't need more than basic teeth cleanings once per year.

brooklynmoney

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 707
  • Location: Crooklyn
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6859 on: August 28, 2021, 04:38:06 PM »
Yeah ACA for people 50+ in NY seems like a great deal. For better or worse, I moved to NJ and its different. The 50+ plans seem a lot more epensive.
Are you outside the subsidy zone?

I think so yes. If I buy a house with cash I could be in it I think so that's one thing to look at.

jim555

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3110
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6860 on: August 29, 2021, 06:50:01 AM »
I think so yes. If I buy a house with cash I could be in it I think so that's one thing to look at.
Check the subsidy calculator...

https://www.kff.org/interactive/subsidy-calculator/

2021 and 2022 have no max income cutoff for subsidies.

bilmar

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 73
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6861 on: November 08, 2021, 10:32:04 AM »
Anyone know what the trigger for additional income verification is for ACA 2022? 

Their 'Guide to confirming your income Information'  says
Youíll need to send more information about your income if itís lower than the amount shown in these data sources by more than 25% or $6,000.

But, it is not clear to me if this lesser of the two amounts or greater of:
e.g. if last year's MAGI was $50k is the threshold $44K ( $6k less) or is it $37500 ( 25% less)?

secondcor521

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4983
  • Age: 54
  • Location: Boise, Idaho
  • Big cattle, no hat.
    • Age of Eon - Overwatch player videos
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6862 on: November 08, 2021, 11:39:41 AM »
Anyone know what the trigger for additional income verification is for ACA 2022? 

Their 'Guide to confirming your income Information'  says
Youíll need to send more information about your income if itís lower than the amount shown in these data sources by more than 25% or $6,000.

But, it is not clear to me if this lesser of the two amounts or greater of:
e.g. if last year's MAGI was $50k is the threshold $44K ( $6k less) or is it $37500 ( 25% less)?

Which state?  I think it's state dependent.

My state asked for income verification the first year and the sixth year, but not the second, third, fourth, or fifth.  The sixth year trigger may have been that I reduced my estimated income by - oh, that's interesting! - $6,010.

So maybe it's a 25% decrease or $6,000 decrease from your previous estimated income (so currently, 2022 estimated vs. 2021 estimated).

bilmar

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 73
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6863 on: November 08, 2021, 02:11:24 PM »


Which state?  I think it's state dependent.

My state asked for income verification the first year and the sixth year, but not the second, third, fourth, or fifth.  The sixth year trigger may have been that I reduced my estimated income by - oh, that's interesting! - $6,010.

So maybe it's a 25% decrease or $6,000 decrease from your previous estimated income (so currently, 2022 estimated vs. 2021 estimated).


The guide is a federal doc and I am in FL which uses the Federal gateway. 
Yes I  am assuming previous years MAGI is what they use but when is the decrease $6000 vs 25%?

American GenX

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 948
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6864 on: November 12, 2021, 07:16:44 PM »
Yup.. I calculated that Medicare for DW and I will cost roughly the same as what I'll get from Social Security (after I get whacked with  WEP).

Hence I ignore SS in wealth planning because its gonna get burned up with HC costs.... Tax implications are not counted in my analysis.

Under the ACA I pay about $10/month for a Bronze plan.

Yeh - You will be paying more than that with medicare premiums and in addition there will be supplemental insurance.  Medicare advantage may look cheaper, but it's got some holes in it.  It's actually an advantage to you if they do not lower the age.

Big price increase for Medicare Part B and deductible...

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/12/medicare-standard-part-b-premiums-for-2022-jump-by-14point5percent-.html

jim555

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3110
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6865 on: November 19, 2021, 06:18:15 PM »
The Build Back Better just passed by the House does some interesting things to the ACA. 

Extend the ARPA subsidy changes that eliminate the income eligibility cap and increase the amount of APTC for individuals across the board through the end of 2025.

Lowers the employer affordability test from 9.61% to 8.5% through 2025.

Enhanced subsidies for those with unemployment compensation  through 2025.

Closes the Medicaid coverage gap in the 12 holdout states by fully subsidizing the Silver benchmark plan for those under 100% FPL.

Makes the CHIP program permanent.

Extends 12-months of continuous coverage for children in CHIP.

Reduces by 3.1% Federal Matching Funds October 1, 2022 through December 31, 2025 for states that adopt Medicaid eligibility standards, methodologies, or procedures that are more restrictive than those in place as of October 1, 2021

It also does a bunch of stuff with Medicare.

The ball goes back to the Senate, we will see what happens.





American GenX

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 948
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6866 on: November 19, 2021, 06:42:09 PM »
It also does a bunch of stuff with Medicare.

Not nearly as much as what the original plan had because they cut some of the few good things out of it.  On balance, I hope the bill crashes and burns trying to get through the Senate.

chasesfish

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4183
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Florida
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6867 on: November 20, 2021, 10:30:09 AM »
It's nice to see I'll be able to get a tax credit through 2025.

Now if my ACA plan would actually cover anything, that would be great.   Almost everything we've had done this year has been mired in pre-authorizations and denials and ultimately private paid.

The health insurer and the government run hospital are busy pointing fingers at each other and not taking responsibility.   

American GenX

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 948
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6868 on: November 20, 2021, 11:38:16 AM »
Now if my ACA plan would actually cover anything, that would be great.   Almost everything we've had done this year has been mired in pre-authorizations and denials and ultimately private paid.

Indeed, it seems to be a common issue.  I posted a link about denied claims a while back.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/what-comes-after-the-aca/msg2565366/#msg2565366

That reference is about 2 years old now - not sure if it's getting any better - probably not.

secondcor521

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4983
  • Age: 54
  • Location: Boise, Idaho
  • Big cattle, no hat.
    • Age of Eon - Overwatch player videos
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6869 on: November 20, 2021, 12:35:33 PM »
It's nice to see I'll be able to get a tax credit through 2025.

Now if my ACA plan would actually cover anything, that would be great.   Almost everything we've had done this year has been mired in pre-authorizations and denials and ultimately private paid.

The health insurer and the government run hospital are busy pointing fingers at each other and not taking responsibility.

It amazes me still how much ACA experiences differ from place to place, even though it's all under one federal law.

I've been on ACA for about five years now.  Everything has been covered well, paid with no problem, low and generally stable premiums, etc.  There was a minor glitch this spring but I blame that on an administrative error on the H&W side.

jim555

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3110
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6870 on: November 20, 2021, 01:33:03 PM »
I've been on NYS Medicaid for 7 years now, I was supposed to leave it before the pandemic but they locked everyone in due to the pandemic emergency.  It has been great, no bills besides co-pays.  No risk of bills either since Providers can't bill Medicaid beneficiaries in NY.  I had a colonoscopy and the Anesthesiologist was out of network.  My plan paid him the plan rate and he has to accept it and can't bill me.

stoaX

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 954
  • Location: South Carolina
  • 'tis nothing good nor bad but thinking makes it so
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6871 on: February 04, 2022, 02:45:29 PM »

Recently, I was talking with a neighbor who told me he was really concerned about a Biden/Harris administration ruining the US. When I asked him what he was most worried Joe and Kamala might do, he replied, "socialized healthcare." I said, "So...you're concerned they might help more people to be able to go to a doctor if they get sick?" He said, "There's no way we could ever possibly afford to give healthcare to everyone in the US. The country would go broke."

You should tell him a sovereign currency issuer like the US Gov't can afford anything it wants to afford, it cannot go broke unless it chooses to do so.  Buy him a copy of The Deficit Myth by Stephanie Kelton.   I'm sick of this "we're gonna go broke" and "how will you pay for it" bullshit.  We have to educate people on this most important topic.  Every year there are millions/billions spent by right wing billionaires to brainwash people into believing this nonsense.   The important issue(s) are not about how we are going to pay for it, but rather how will we ensure that we have enough doctors and hospitals to serve patients and what we're going to do about the lost jobs (albeit most are bullshit jobs) as a result of the private health insurance industry shrinking. 

If we could get people understand federal fiscal reality more of them would never settle for the crumbs we're getting.  Then of course there are those monstrous socipathic people who would understand fiscal reality but still wouldn't give a shit about people  dying or going bankrupt due to a lack of affordable health care.

Obviously the government can print as much money as it wants to and can pay off any debt it wants to. But that money doesn't just operate at a vacuum. If you print too much money inflation goes up and/or the relative buying power of people in society changes. There's no way, in other words, to solve a discrete problem (like healthcare) without changing the balance of other needs/wants among different groups of people. You might be all for that, but you have to deal with people who aren't or who are worried.

In Stephanie Kelton's book she says "myth #2: deficits are evidence of overspending. Reality: for evidence of overspending look to inflation". (page 41).

So if she's right then we don't need to worry about the higher levels of federal government spending in the US as lot as we aren't experiencing inflation.

zolotiyeruki

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5331
  • Location: State: Denial
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6872 on: February 04, 2022, 03:03:02 PM »
In Stephanie Kelton's book she says "myth #2: deficits are evidence of overspending. Reality: for evidence of overspending look to inflation". (page 41).

So if she's right then we don't need to worry about the higher levels of federal government spending in the US as lot as we aren't experiencing inflation.
Uh, are you not aware of the historic inflation we've seen over the past couple of years?  The highest inflation we've seen in 40 years?

boarder42

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9332
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6873 on: February 04, 2022, 05:17:23 PM »
In Stephanie Kelton's book she says "myth #2: deficits are evidence of overspending. Reality: for evidence of overspending look to inflation". (page 41).

So if she's right then we don't need to worry about the higher levels of federal government spending in the US as lot as we aren't experiencing inflation.
Uh, are you not aware of the historic inflation we've seen over the past couple of years?  The highest inflation we've seen in 40 years?

Oh no shit really. You mean when you shut down the whole economy and factories and supply chains then infuse money into it that there might be a supply and demand issue that temporarily changes inflation. This isn't the hyper inflation of before. But you know fear mongering and all is fun.

stoaX

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 954
  • Location: South Carolina
  • 'tis nothing good nor bad but thinking makes it so
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6874 on: February 04, 2022, 05:49:36 PM »
In Stephanie Kelton's book she says "myth #2: deficits are evidence of overspending. Reality: for evidence of overspending look to inflation". (page 41).

So if she's right then we don't need to worry about the higher levels of federal government spending in the US as lot as we aren't experiencing inflation.
Uh, are you not aware of the historic inflation we've seen over the past couple of years?  The highest inflation we've seen in 40 years?

I meant to say "as LONG as we aren't experiencing inflation"..  my bad.   

So yup, I am aware that the US is experiencing inflation, I just left it open ended for the reader to draw their own conclusion.  And to highlight one of the nuances in Kelton's work on deficit spending.

zolotiyeruki

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5331
  • Location: State: Denial
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6875 on: February 04, 2022, 11:08:10 PM »
I meant to say "as LONG as we aren't experiencing inflation"..  my bad.   

So yup, I am aware that the US is experiencing inflation, I just left it open ended for the reader to draw their own conclusion.  And to highlight one of the nuances in Kelton's work on deficit spending.
Fair enough!  Yeah, that's a pretty crucial omission :)

talltexan

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5336
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6876 on: February 07, 2022, 01:10:55 PM »
Kelton's position is that price levels increase within the economy when the public sector diverts too many resources.

I accept that we're seeing inflation in this moment. But what evidence is there that the private sector is continually expanding when we're seeing state and local government jobs go down each month?

zolotiyeruki

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5331
  • Location: State: Denial
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6877 on: February 07, 2022, 01:20:47 PM »
Kelton's position is that price levels increase within the economy when the public sector diverts too many resources.

I accept that we're seeing inflation in this moment. But what evidence is there that the private sector is continually expanding when we're seeing state and local government jobs go down each month?
I suppose it depends on what metric you're following.  Private sector GDP?  Private sector employment?  Labor participation rate? Unemployment?

talltexan

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5336
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6878 on: February 08, 2022, 12:34:42 PM »
Dang, I misstyped, and should have said "public sector". That's where we are losing jobs. My mistake.

American GenX

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 948
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6879 on: February 08, 2022, 03:58:22 PM »
In Stephanie Kelton's book she says "myth #2: deficits are evidence of overspending. Reality: for evidence of overspending look to inflation". (page 41).

So if she's right then we don't need to worry about the higher levels of federal government spending in the US as lot as we aren't experiencing inflation.
Uh, are you not aware of the historic inflation we've seen over the past couple of years?  The highest inflation we've seen in 40 years?

Yes, it's really bad - definitely affects my mood more negatively than anything else in the last 6 months to a year, and that includes COVID.   While the government figures say 7%, I've seen closer to 15% to 20% increase in my budgeted spending over the last year, with no change in consumption, and it's not stopping with that.  And the vast majority of these price increases are NOT temporary.   What a lot of people seem to misunderstand, and I've seen it in the mainstream media, politicians, and even from people on this website who don't understand it, is that if inflation eventually falls to say 3% in a few years, that does NOT mean that prices will fall on most things, it just means they won't continue to increase at such a high rate as they are now.  And if someone cuts their spending by eating out less or such to keep their overall expenses the same as the previous year, that does NOT mean they aren't seeing or aren't affected by inflation, just the opposite.  You can only live in a state of denial for so long.

All the government spending and higher wages are feeding into it, which in turn causes inflation to feed on itself as prices continue to skyrocket.

I've already delayed fire for at least another full year due to rampant inflation when I had previously been almost certain about FIREing this spring.

Tyson

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2843
  • Age: 51
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6880 on: February 08, 2022, 04:42:31 PM »
In Stephanie Kelton's book she says "myth #2: deficits are evidence of overspending. Reality: for evidence of overspending look to inflation". (page 41).

So if she's right then we don't need to worry about the higher levels of federal government spending in the US as lot as we aren't experiencing inflation.
Uh, are you not aware of the historic inflation we've seen over the past couple of years?  The highest inflation we've seen in 40 years?

Yes, it's really bad - definitely affects my mood more negatively than anything else in the last 6 months to a year, and that includes COVID.   While the government figures say 7%, I've seen closer to 15% to 20% increase in my budgeted spending over the last year, with no change in consumption, and it's not stopping with that.  And the vast majority of these price increases are NOT temporary.   What a lot of people seem to misunderstand, and I've seen it in the mainstream media, politicians, and even from people on this website who don't understand it, is that if inflation eventually falls to say 3% in a few years, that does NOT mean that prices will fall on most things, it just means they won't continue to increase at such a high rate as they are now.  And if someone cuts their spending by eating out less or such to keep their overall expenses the same as the previous year, that does NOT mean they aren't seeing or aren't affected by inflation, just the opposite.  You can only live in a state of denial for so long.

All the government spending and higher wages are feeding into it, which in turn causes inflation to feed on itself as prices continue to skyrocket.

I've already delayed fire for at least another full year due to rampant inflation when I had previously been almost certain about FIREing this spring.

Your investments arenít outstripping inflation?  I know mine sure are.

zolotiyeruki

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5331
  • Location: State: Denial
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6881 on: February 08, 2022, 05:28:00 PM »
In Stephanie Kelton's book she says "myth #2: deficits are evidence of overspending. Reality: for evidence of overspending look to inflation". (page 41).

So if she's right then we don't need to worry about the higher levels of federal government spending in the US as lot as we aren't experiencing inflation.
Uh, are you not aware of the historic inflation we've seen over the past couple of years?  The highest inflation we've seen in 40 years?

Yes, it's really bad - definitely affects my mood more negatively than anything else in the last 6 months to a year, and that includes COVID.   While the government figures say 7%, I've seen closer to 15% to 20% increase in my budgeted spending over the last year, with no change in consumption, and it's not stopping with that.  And the vast majority of these price increases are NOT temporary.   What a lot of people seem to misunderstand, and I've seen it in the mainstream media, politicians, and even from people on this website who don't understand it, is that if inflation eventually falls to say 3% in a few years, that does NOT mean that prices will fall on most things, it just means they won't continue to increase at such a high rate as they are now.  And if someone cuts their spending by eating out less or such to keep their overall expenses the same as the previous year, that does NOT mean they aren't seeing or aren't affected by inflation, just the opposite.  You can only live in a state of denial for so long.

All the government spending and higher wages are feeding into it, which in turn causes inflation to feed on itself as prices continue to skyrocket.

I've already delayed fire for at least another full year due to rampant inflation when I had previously been almost certain about FIREing this spring.

Your investments arenít outstripping inflation?  I know mine sure are.
Not over the last couple of months.  Inflation is a double-whammy, by devaluing your investments and decreasing your available cashflow for investing.

American GenX

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 948
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6882 on: February 08, 2022, 07:15:18 PM »
In Stephanie Kelton's book she says "myth #2: deficits are evidence of overspending. Reality: for evidence of overspending look to inflation". (page 41).

So if she's right then we don't need to worry about the higher levels of federal government spending in the US as lot as we aren't experiencing inflation.
Uh, are you not aware of the historic inflation we've seen over the past couple of years?  The highest inflation we've seen in 40 years?

Yes, it's really bad - definitely affects my mood more negatively than anything else in the last 6 months to a year, and that includes COVID.   While the government figures say 7%, I've seen closer to 15% to 20% increase in my budgeted spending over the last year, with no change in consumption, and it's not stopping with that.  And the vast majority of these price increases are NOT temporary.   What a lot of people seem to misunderstand, and I've seen it in the mainstream media, politicians, and even from people on this website who don't understand it, is that if inflation eventually falls to say 3% in a few years, that does NOT mean that prices will fall on most things, it just means they won't continue to increase at such a high rate as they are now.  And if someone cuts their spending by eating out less or such to keep their overall expenses the same as the previous year, that does NOT mean they aren't seeing or aren't affected by inflation, just the opposite.  You can only live in a state of denial for so long.

All the government spending and higher wages are feeding into it, which in turn causes inflation to feed on itself as prices continue to skyrocket.

I've already delayed fire for at least another full year due to rampant inflation when I had previously been almost certain about FIREing this spring.

Your investments arenít outstripping inflation?  I know mine sure are.

?????  Investments?  I was talking about much higher actual and budgeted costs with no change in consumption, not about investments.  In fact, I've had some things happen that are making a big chunk of my investments even worse.  Last year, my fixed interest stable value fund in my retirement account went from paying 3% (with no fees) to 1.36% (net, now with fees), so inflation is actually making the change even worse, not better.  But again, I was just talking about inflation, not investments.  Not sure why people get so confused about exactly what inflation is, and that earning more or cutting your standard of living does NOT mean you are not seeing or affected by inflation, as I said earlier.

Paul der Krake

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5853
  • Age: 15
  • Location: UTC-10:00
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6883 on: February 08, 2022, 08:10:18 PM »
I too like to shit on MMT and its hand-wavy prescriptions as much as the next guy, but how is this related to the ACA?

Tyson

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2843
  • Age: 51
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6884 on: February 08, 2022, 08:27:01 PM »
In Stephanie Kelton's book she says "myth #2: deficits are evidence of overspending. Reality: for evidence of overspending look to inflation". (page 41).

So if she's right then we don't need to worry about the higher levels of federal government spending in the US as lot as we aren't experiencing inflation.
Uh, are you not aware of the historic inflation we've seen over the past couple of years?  The highest inflation we've seen in 40 years?

Yes, it's really bad - definitely affects my mood more negatively than anything else in the last 6 months to a year, and that includes COVID.   While the government figures say 7%, I've seen closer to 15% to 20% increase in my budgeted spending over the last year, with no change in consumption, and it's not stopping with that.  And the vast majority of these price increases are NOT temporary.   What a lot of people seem to misunderstand, and I've seen it in the mainstream media, politicians, and even from people on this website who don't understand it, is that if inflation eventually falls to say 3% in a few years, that does NOT mean that prices will fall on most things, it just means they won't continue to increase at such a high rate as they are now.  And if someone cuts their spending by eating out less or such to keep their overall expenses the same as the previous year, that does NOT mean they aren't seeing or aren't affected by inflation, just the opposite.  You can only live in a state of denial for so long.

All the government spending and higher wages are feeding into it, which in turn causes inflation to feed on itself as prices continue to skyrocket.

I've already delayed fire for at least another full year due to rampant inflation when I had previously been almost certain about FIREing this spring.

Your investments arenít outstripping inflation?  I know mine sure are.

?????  Investments?  I was talking about much higher actual and budgeted costs with no change in consumption, not about investments.  In fact, I've had some things happen that are making a big chunk of my investments even worse.  Last year, my fixed interest stable value fund in my retirement account went from paying 3% (with no fees) to 1.36% (net, now with fees), so inflation is actually making the change even worse, not better.  But again, I was just talking about inflation, not investments.  Not sure why people get so confused about exactly what inflation is, and that earning more or cutting your standard of living does NOT mean you are not seeing or affected by inflation, as I said earlier.

I'm not confused about inflation, not sure where that came from.  I'm subject to it just like anyone else. 

But, I look at my investments over the past decade and I see record gains (I'm a buy & hold passive investor) and that has definitely outstripped any inflation rates we've seen only during the last few years. 

Obviously, low inflation is better than high inflation.  But even high inflation is only bad if it continues over time.  I guess I just don't get the panic some people seem to be on the verge of.

pecunia

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2582
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6885 on: February 09, 2022, 07:37:11 AM »
In Stephanie Kelton's book she says "myth #2: deficits are evidence of overspending. Reality: for evidence of overspending look to inflation". (page 41).

So if she's right then we don't need to worry about the higher levels of federal government spending in the US as lot as we aren't experiencing inflation.
Uh, are you not aware of the historic inflation we've seen over the past couple of years?  The highest inflation we've seen in 40 years?

Yes, it's really bad - definitely affects my mood more negatively than anything else in the last 6 months to a year, and that includes COVID.   While the government figures say 7%, I've seen closer to 15% to 20% increase in my budgeted spending over the last year, with no change in consumption, and it's not stopping with that.  And the vast majority of these price increases are NOT temporary.   What a lot of people seem to misunderstand, and I've seen it in the mainstream media, politicians, and even from people on this website who don't understand it, is that if inflation eventually falls to say 3% in a few years, that does NOT mean that prices will fall on most things, it just means they won't continue to increase at such a high rate as they are now.  And if someone cuts their spending by eating out less or such to keep their overall expenses the same as the previous year, that does NOT mean they aren't seeing or aren't affected by inflation, just the opposite.  You can only live in a state of denial for so long.

All the government spending and higher wages are feeding into it, which in turn causes inflation to feed on itself as prices continue to skyrocket.

I've already delayed fire for at least another full year due to rampant inflation when I had previously been almost certain about FIREing this spring.

Your investments arenít outstripping inflation?  I know mine sure are.

?????  Investments?  I was talking about much higher actual and budgeted costs with no change in consumption, not about investments.  In fact, I've had some things happen that are making a big chunk of my investments even worse.  Last year, my fixed interest stable value fund in my retirement account went from paying 3% (with no fees) to 1.36% (net, now with fees), so inflation is actually making the change even worse, not better.  But again, I was just talking about inflation, not investments.  Not sure why people get so confused about exactly what inflation is, and that earning more or cutting your standard of living does NOT mean you are not seeing or affected by inflation, as I said earlier.

I'm not confused about inflation, not sure where that came from.  I'm subject to it just like anyone else. 

But, I look at my investments over the past decade and I see record gains (I'm a buy & hold passive investor) and that has definitely outstripped any inflation rates we've seen only during the last few years. 

Obviously, low inflation is better than high inflation.  But even high inflation is only bad if it continues over time.  I guess I just don't get the panic some people seem to be on the verge of.

With incomes fixed at a slowly rising level and inflation rising at a higher level, inflation means that you will be having a lower standard of living.  Long term things like borrowing money cost more.  Investments in big ticket items like factories slow because guaranteed returns must be higher.  Your taxes will need to rise because the cost of government will rise. Credit cards and car loans have higher interest. House payments go way up.   It's just bad.  It steals your future.

Tyson

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2843
  • Age: 51
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6886 on: February 09, 2022, 10:18:04 AM »
In Stephanie Kelton's book she says "myth #2: deficits are evidence of overspending. Reality: for evidence of overspending look to inflation". (page 41).

So if she's right then we don't need to worry about the higher levels of federal government spending in the US as lot as we aren't experiencing inflation.
Uh, are you not aware of the historic inflation we've seen over the past couple of years?  The highest inflation we've seen in 40 years?

Yes, it's really bad - definitely affects my mood more negatively than anything else in the last 6 months to a year, and that includes COVID.   While the government figures say 7%, I've seen closer to 15% to 20% increase in my budgeted spending over the last year, with no change in consumption, and it's not stopping with that.  And the vast majority of these price increases are NOT temporary.   What a lot of people seem to misunderstand, and I've seen it in the mainstream media, politicians, and even from people on this website who don't understand it, is that if inflation eventually falls to say 3% in a few years, that does NOT mean that prices will fall on most things, it just means they won't continue to increase at such a high rate as they are now.  And if someone cuts their spending by eating out less or such to keep their overall expenses the same as the previous year, that does NOT mean they aren't seeing or aren't affected by inflation, just the opposite.  You can only live in a state of denial for so long.

All the government spending and higher wages are feeding into it, which in turn causes inflation to feed on itself as prices continue to skyrocket.

I've already delayed fire for at least another full year due to rampant inflation when I had previously been almost certain about FIREing this spring.

Your investments arenít outstripping inflation?  I know mine sure are.

?????  Investments?  I was talking about much higher actual and budgeted costs with no change in consumption, not about investments.  In fact, I've had some things happen that are making a big chunk of my investments even worse.  Last year, my fixed interest stable value fund in my retirement account went from paying 3% (with no fees) to 1.36% (net, now with fees), so inflation is actually making the change even worse, not better.  But again, I was just talking about inflation, not investments.  Not sure why people get so confused about exactly what inflation is, and that earning more or cutting your standard of living does NOT mean you are not seeing or affected by inflation, as I said earlier.

I'm not confused about inflation, not sure where that came from.  I'm subject to it just like anyone else. 

But, I look at my investments over the past decade and I see record gains (I'm a buy & hold passive investor) and that has definitely outstripped any inflation rates we've seen only during the last few years. 

Obviously, low inflation is better than high inflation.  But even high inflation is only bad if it continues over time.  I guess I just don't get the panic some people seem to be on the verge of.

With incomes fixed at a slowly rising level and inflation rising at a higher level, inflation means that you will be having a lower standard of living.  Long term things like borrowing money cost more.  Investments in big ticket items like factories slow because guaranteed returns must be higher.  Your taxes will need to rise because the cost of government will rise. Credit cards and car loans have higher interest. House payments go way up.   It's just bad.  It steals your future.

I'd say it's probably very bad for people living paycheck to paycheck.  But for people on this forum, most saving over 50% of their income, and some saving up to 80%, well it seems to me that inflation at this level is just a blip.  Practically it means you can only save 75% instead of 80%?  That seems like a rather miserly thing to complain about. 

And if you're already FIRE'd, I would hope that your FIRE plan was robust enough to handle inflation.  If not, then you FIRE'd too soon. 

zolotiyeruki

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5331
  • Location: State: Denial
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6887 on: February 09, 2022, 10:46:15 AM »
I'd say it's probably very bad for people living paycheck to paycheck.  But for people on this forum, most saving over 50% of their income, and some saving up to 80%, well it seems to me that inflation at this level is just a blip.  Practically it means you can only save 75% instead of 80%?  That seems like a rather miserly thing to complain about. 

And if you're already FIRE'd, I would hope that your FIRE plan was robust enough to handle inflation.  If not, then you FIRE'd too soon.
I think it's reasonable to cut people some slack for not factoring "government suddenly dumping $5 Trillion into the economy" into their retirement forecast.

Keep in mind also that people saving 50% of their income are a low percentage even on the MMM forums.  For people who are saving, say, "only" 30%, 8% inflation eats a quarter of their ability to save for retirement, besides increasing the amount needed to retire.  In other words, this inflation will cost high savers years of their lives, and others decades.  It is nothing to sniff or scoff at, just because some 1% of 1% of the population can tolerate it.

Tyson

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2843
  • Age: 51
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6888 on: February 09, 2022, 11:59:49 AM »
I'd say it's probably very bad for people living paycheck to paycheck.  But for people on this forum, most saving over 50% of their income, and some saving up to 80%, well it seems to me that inflation at this level is just a blip.  Practically it means you can only save 75% instead of 80%?  That seems like a rather miserly thing to complain about. 

And if you're already FIRE'd, I would hope that your FIRE plan was robust enough to handle inflation.  If not, then you FIRE'd too soon.
I think it's reasonable to cut people some slack for not factoring "government suddenly dumping $5 Trillion into the economy" into their retirement forecast.

Keep in mind also that people saving 50% of their income are a low percentage even on the MMM forums.  For people who are saving, say, "only" 30%, 8% inflation eats a quarter of their ability to save for retirement, besides increasing the amount needed to retire.  In other words, this inflation will cost high savers years of their lives, and others decades.  It is nothing to sniff or scoff at, just because some 1% of 1% of the population can tolerate it.

I guess we will just have to agree to disagree.  Which I'm actually OK with. 

But I do have a follow up question that's not related to whether or not this particular inflation is a FIRE killer or not.  Let's assume for a moment that it is a real issue, what's the actionable item that comes out of that knowledge?  What exactly are we supposed to do with that info?  Other than "Put off retirement".

stoaX

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 954
  • Location: South Carolina
  • 'tis nothing good nor bad but thinking makes it so
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6889 on: February 10, 2022, 03:57:08 AM »
Another substantial population on this forum are retirees.  Things they can do about it include revising asset allocations and investment choices, picking up some employment income, make purchases sooner vs later...

Actually, still employed people can do those things as well.

SugarMountain

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 928
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6890 on: April 08, 2022, 10:31:53 AM »
I'd say it's probably very bad for people living paycheck to paycheck.  But for people on this forum, most saving over 50% of their income, and some saving up to 80%, well it seems to me that inflation at this level is just a blip.  Practically it means you can only save 75% instead of 80%?  That seems like a rather miserly thing to complain about. 

And if you're already FIRE'd, I would hope that your FIRE plan was robust enough to handle inflation.  If not, then you FIRE'd too soon.
I think it's reasonable to cut people some slack for not factoring "government suddenly dumping $5 Trillion into the economy" into their retirement forecast.

Keep in mind also that people saving 50% of their income are a low percentage even on the MMM forums.  For people who are saving, say, "only" 30%, 8% inflation eats a quarter of their ability to save for retirement, besides increasing the amount needed to retire.  In other words, this inflation will cost high savers years of their lives, and others decades.  It is nothing to sniff or scoff at, just because some 1% of 1% of the population can tolerate it.

The stock market boomed because of that $5 trillion dumped into the economy.  I'll take the nearly 100% gain in my equities the last two years with the total of 8-10% inflation. (While the last year inflation has been bad it was essentially 0 to negative in 2020 so it's really not that bad if you expand your horizon a bit.  And health insurance didn't go up much for 2022, it's mostly gas, food, and durable goods that have exploded. Services not so much.)

pecunia

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2582
Re: What comes after the ACA?
« Reply #6891 on: April 08, 2022, 09:17:38 PM »
I'd say it's probably very bad for people living paycheck to paycheck.  But for people on this forum, most saving over 50% of their income, and some saving up to 80%, well it seems to me that inflation at this level is just a blip.  Practically it means you can only save 75% instead of 80%?  That seems like a rather miserly thing to complain about. 

And if you're already FIRE'd, I would hope that your FIRE plan was robust enough to handle inflation.  If not, then you FIRE'd too soon.
I think it's reasonable to cut people some slack for not factoring "government suddenly dumping $5 Trillion into the economy" into their retirement forecast.

Keep in mind also that people saving 50% of their income are a low percentage even on the MMM forums.  For people who are saving, say, "only" 30%, 8% inflation eats a quarter of their ability to save for retirement, besides increasing the amount needed to retire.  In other words, this inflation will cost high savers years of their lives, and others decades.  It is nothing to sniff or scoff at, just because some 1% of 1% of the population can tolerate it.

The stock market boomed because of that $5 trillion dumped into the economy.  I'll take the nearly 100% gain in my equities the last two years with the total of 8-10% inflation. (While the last year inflation has been bad it was essentially 0 to negative in 2020 so it's really not that bad if you expand your horizon a bit.  And health insurance didn't go up much for 2022, it's mostly gas, food, and durable goods that have exploded. Services not so much.)

Reading through this inflation thing, it's going to happen.  However, if the government could do something to cut a major cost by 50 percent and possibly get better results for your money, it seems like a no-brainer.  There are some things that just lend themselves to being socialized and medicine appears to be one of them.  The current system really does the job to contribute to inflation.  There are few resources without limit, but the greed of the medical industry seems to fit.  At any rate if you are worried about inflation and the ACA other countries have shown examples what to replace it with.  They pay 50 percent and provide health care to all.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!