I'm pretty skeptical of polls. In 2016, HRC led in nearly every pre-election nationwide poll and most swing state polls, yet Trump won a decisive EC victory. A friend who has been cold calling voters for the Progressive Turnout Project says, of the people who bother to answer their phones, a majority either hang up as soon as they realize who is calling, say they don't want/have time to "talk politics," or scream crude epithets at him, "nigger lover" being an, apparent, favorite. The small percentage of people who actually take the time to answer their phones and talk with pollsters are not, imho, representative of the electorate, as a whole.