Author Topic: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE  (Read 9116 times)

terran

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #50 on: June 04, 2020, 02:20:47 PM »
I would guess that anyone who thought they could lean FIRE or barista FIRE on $300K is pretty fucked right now.

No one with a $300k net worth is fucked. That makes them $300k richer and otherwise in the same place as all the other currently unemployed people who will have to find work after this is all over.

mathlete

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #51 on: June 04, 2020, 02:29:36 PM »
I would guess that anyone who thought they could lean FIRE or barista FIRE on $300K is pretty fucked right now.

No one with a $300k net worth is fucked. That makes them $300k richer and otherwise in the same place as all the other currently unemployed people who will have to find work after this is all over.

Relatively speaking of course.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #52 on: June 04, 2020, 02:37:55 PM »
I figured I’d check in and see if FIRE was dead yet. No? I guess I’ll check back later.


undercover

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #53 on: June 04, 2020, 03:58:04 PM »
If anything, this situation should only add fuel to the FIRE for most people. I mean is it not common sense that having plenty of savings in a time of economic uncertainty (even if it takes a market beating) is far better than not? I don’t understand how you could ever under any circumstance argue the opposite. Only a complete doomer would argue that you should spend every penny you get and live it up because the world is ending soon.

Also, a lot of people are “accidentally” seeking fire. A lot of people here have incomes so ridiculously high that there is literally nothing else they could do with their money but invest it. And the people that are on more average incomes are smart enough to realize that their income left over after essentials/reasonable splurges is always best used towards their future because no amount of frittering it away will make you happier.

So the end result is the same for the “accidental” or “studious” FIRE types - there’s just no avoiding the fact that there is no better alternative than investing for a future. The worst that could happen is America completely falls apart and by the time that happens then life and/or money won’t be worth very much anyway.

I guess I should sell my rentals because there’s no point in receiving passive income every month. I’ll never get “FIRE” and it’s pointless. Man what a fool I’ve been all along.

bacchi

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #54 on: June 04, 2020, 04:52:09 PM »
and I have to admit I was confused the whole time reading (someone who has a portfolio that is 20% equities, and that 20% has lost 30% of its value, is now looking for work??).  I guess I was less confused when I realized the spending number I was reading was quarterly and not annual, but still didn't exactly follow how their financial plan was so surprised by a single downturn in the economy given it seems like we have one worse than this every ten years for as long as I've been alive.

A 30% drop is $600k, which means the starting equity amount was $2M. Equities are only 20% of his total net worth, giving him a total net worth of $10M.

With expenses of $260k, and a net worth of $10M, that is either some serious financial mismanagement, some major paranoia, or too much cash.

My tears for his crisis are flowing into my craft cider.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #55 on: June 04, 2020, 07:41:22 PM »
I would guess that anyone who thought they could lean FIRE or barista FIRE on $300K is pretty fucked right now.
Nah. They will mostly likely survive the downturn better than others. Many don't have debt, mortgages or kids. They are use to living with much less then more spendy FIRE people and are probably both willing and able to downsize their life style and spending habit to real barebones levels to adjust to any changes.

Or more to the point, they're getting bailed out by stimulus measures which other taxpayers will pay for.

Retire-Canada

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #56 on: June 04, 2020, 08:02:24 PM »
Or more to the point, they're getting bailed out by stimulus measures which other taxpayers will pay for.

Insane! We should just be bailing out the mega corps and billionaires! There isn't enough Government money for everyone.

Laura33

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #57 on: June 05, 2020, 06:14:36 AM »
and I have to admit I was confused the whole time reading (someone who has a portfolio that is 20% equities, and that 20% has lost 30% of its value, is now looking for work??).  I guess I was less confused when I realized the spending number I was reading was quarterly and not annual, but still didn't exactly follow how their financial plan was so surprised by a single downturn in the economy given it seems like we have one worse than this every ten years for as long as I've been alive.

A 30% drop is $600k, which means the starting equity amount was $2M. Equities are only 20% of his total net worth, giving him a total net worth of $10M.

With expenses of $260k, and a net worth of $10M, that is either some serious financial mismanagement, some major paranoia, or too much cash.

My tears for his crisis are flowing into my craft cider.

I was confused by that too, so I read the clickbait.  Apparently he had a bunch of his bonds in some sort of weird derivative product that I've never heard of, which totally and unexpectedly crashed in the crisis (a derivative crashing unexpectedly?  I'm shocked, shocked I say!  Who could conceive of such a thing?).  So I suspect a hefty part of his loss was in the bond part of his portfolio.

Speaking of which, reading his first quarter report was fun in a somewhat schadenfreude kinda way.  He was talking about all of his complicated investment and hedges and complaining about how the bond thingy was supposed to be stable and it was a huge surprise to take such a big hit, and his portfolio had recovered since and he was now down only maybe 5-10%.  And all I could think was, gee, my general index-fund-based portfolio has done the same or better with absolutely zero effort or cost on my part.  Just goes to show that for some people, investing is an end unto itself -- excitement, an opportunity to beat everyone else -- instead of just a tool to fund the life you want.

habanero

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #58 on: June 05, 2020, 06:23:09 AM »
There was a story in the newpaper here a few days ago that they worry that more people than usual will retire early here ("early" as a few years before the standard age, that is, not FIRE-early). When people have been working from home for a few months they get an early taste of retirement. The only thing separating it from actual retirement in a way is work, but it's a big difference if that is done from home, your social contact is your neighbors instead of work colleagues, no commuting to and from work anymore and so on.

nereo

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #59 on: June 05, 2020, 06:54:18 AM »
I would guess that anyone who thought they could lean FIRE or barista FIRE on $300K is pretty fucked right now.
Nah. They will mostly likely survive the downturn better than others. Many don't have debt, mortgages or kids. They are use to living with much less then more spendy FIRE people and are probably both willing and able to downsize their life style and spending habit to real barebones levels to adjust to any changes.

Or more to the point, they're getting bailed out by stimulus measures which other taxpayers will pay for.

I don’t quite follow your meaning.  How are they getting bailed out by stimulus measures?  Is this just another one of those “anyone who gets a benefit that’s not like me is a freeloader, and anyone like me that gets one has earned it?”

Bloop Bloop

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #60 on: June 05, 2020, 07:48:42 AM »
My country's government is throwing huge amounts of non-means tested stimulus at businesses and workers to make sure that most people are no worse off (and many are better off) even if they do lose their jobs.

I call that a bail-out. I believe in putting in some measures to soften the blow of job losses but they should be proportional and means tested.

P.S. I've never received a cent of stimulus in my life neither this year nor after the GFC.

nereo

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #61 on: June 05, 2020, 08:00:24 AM »
My country's government is throwing huge amounts of non-means tested stimulus at businesses and workers to make sure that most people are no worse off (and many are better off) even if they do lose their jobs.

I call that a bail-out. I believe in putting in some measures to soften the blow of job losses but they should be proportional and means tested.

P.S. I've never received a cent of stimulus in my life neither this year nor after the GFC.

Ok, so you are looking at this through the lens of what is happening in Australia.  That wasn't clear.
It does seem like you begrudge any support others might receive, particularly with your ending statement that "I've never received a cent of stimulus in my life".

Means-testing can be effective in some instances, but not others.  As has been discussed  here many times, a core challenge has always been what to include with means-testing.  On the asset-side of hte equation there's salary and positions, all of which are problematic (i.e, what timeframe are we considering?  Do we consider the value of the primary residence, and if so do we make an allotment for those who are renters?)  THen there's the expense side of he ledger, which might include everything from the number of dependents, household income, debt-load etc.

Going by last years' tax returns doesn't reflect who might need stimulus now.  There's also the inherent bias involved in saying this group of people deserves support to soften the blow, while these people do not.

Much Fishing to Do

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #62 on: June 05, 2020, 08:26:11 AM »
I would guess that anyone who thought they could lean FIRE or barista FIRE on $300K is pretty fucked right now.

Not sure why lean FIREd people are in any different shape than last year.  An unless the barista FIREd people have kept it so tight that they absolutely need a job this year (at which point I in no way would consider the FIRE term appropriate anyway), I don't know why they'd be that affected either.


EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #63 on: June 05, 2020, 09:28:14 AM »
There was a story in the newpaper here a few days ago that they worry that more people than usual will retire early here ("early" as a few years before the standard age, that is, not FIRE-early). When people have been working from home for a few months they get an early taste of retirement. The only thing separating it from actual retirement in a way is work, but it's a big difference if that is done from home, your social contact is your neighbors instead of work colleagues, no commuting to and from work anymore and so on.

I think this will be the interesting impact of Covid - people are spending less since their vacations are all cancelled and they aren't commuting or eating out as much, so they might get a taste of living within their means.  Lots of folks are also losing their jobs and living on 'fixed income' unemployment and managing to save and live more frugally.  On the flip side, they are working from home which is a lot more like ER than working in an office, going on business trips, and spending days in meetings.

The other interesting thing is that a lot of ER blogs have become complainy-pants (I have to homeschool?  I can't travel whenever and wherever I want?  My blog income is half and still falling?).  ER doesn't look as attractive when you're quarantined with your kids, being in a home office working with other adults is a nice excuse to not be 'too available'. 

So I think the whole 'FIRE' movement is slowly merging / changing to become something different and more mainstream.  It won't be the extreme 'stash a million, 'retire' at 30, and continue making content out of living a sexy lifestyle'.  It'll probably look more like, 'work and save some of it because unemployment may be right around the corner again, build up a decent stash, but eventually you don't work too hard, and eventually cut back on hours or flex your at home work schedule...

All depends on how the economy does once government stimulus slows down, businesses start to re-open, and if the stock market can continue to return it's historical 7% for the next few years.  I'm still thinking we need to wait-and-see what the long term effects will be.

nereo

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #64 on: June 05, 2020, 09:47:33 AM »
Every recession results in a sizeable wave of individuals that get "pushed" into retirement earlier than expected.  Often it's over a job loss and inability to find similar employment when you are 60+.  Others realize they had enough assets and actually enjoyed not working more than they thought (i.e. getting over the fear of not working).  Some with structured contracts are offered buyouts which come with tough corporate times.  That's how my uncle wound up "retired".

terran

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #65 on: June 05, 2020, 12:13:23 PM »
So I think the whole 'FIRE' movement is slowly merging / changing to become something different and more mainstream.  It won't be the extreme 'stash a million, 'retire' at 30, and continue making content out of living a sexy lifestyle'.  It'll probably look more like, 'work and save some of it because unemployment may be right around the corner again, build up a decent stash, but eventually you don't work too hard, and eventually cut back on hours or flex your at home work schedule...

I'm not so sure about that. People certainly got a taste of that from the great recession and it doesn't seem to have sunk in and resulted in many people being prepared to spend some time unemployed this time around.

nereo

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #66 on: June 05, 2020, 12:24:18 PM »
So I think the whole 'FIRE' movement is slowly merging / changing to become something different and more mainstream.  It won't be the extreme 'stash a million, 'retire' at 30, and continue making content out of living a sexy lifestyle'.  It'll probably look more like, 'work and save some of it because unemployment may be right around the corner again, build up a decent stash, but eventually you don't work too hard, and eventually cut back on hours or flex your at home work schedule...

I'm not so sure about that. People certainly got a taste of that from the great recession and it doesn't seem to have sunk in and resulted in many people being prepared to spend some time unemployed this time around.

That’s considered extreme now in a FIRE forum?  There where does Jason land over on ERE?

Retiring with $1MM seems like a pretty normal middle-class life, regardless of what age it’s achieved.  Actually, that is pretty on par with the actual spending rate of a median-income family (i.e. after taxes, savings and interest payments are deducted from gross income).

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #67 on: June 05, 2020, 01:10:53 PM »
So I think the whole 'FIRE' movement is slowly merging / changing to become something different and more mainstream.  It won't be the extreme 'stash a million, 'retire' at 30, and continue making content out of living a sexy lifestyle'.  It'll probably look more like, 'work and save some of it because unemployment may be right around the corner again, build up a decent stash, but eventually you don't work too hard, and eventually cut back on hours or flex your at home work schedule...

I'm not so sure about that. People certainly got a taste of that from the great recession and it doesn't seem to have sunk in and resulted in many people being prepared to spend some time unemployed this time around.

That’s considered extreme now in a FIRE forum?  There where does Jason land over on ERE?

Retiring with $1MM seems like a pretty normal middle-class life, regardless of what age it’s achieved.  Actually, that is pretty on par with the actual spending rate of a median-income family (i.e. after taxes, savings and interest payments are deducted from gross income).

@terran The 2008 GFC was an entirely different beast than this pandemic.  Unemployment was nowhere near as high and economic activity was higher (people could still travel, go to restaurants, go to malls, etc.).  Damage was mostly financial, and probably was more effective that Covid in making people question the idea of FIRE.  The pandemic, on the other hand, has lead to a spike in unemployment, underemployment, government stimulus, and working from home, which are gateway drugs to an ever more gig-like / FIRE-like future.  Maybe some long-term financial damage is coming, but for now most people's investments and home values are still near all time highs.

@nereo I think you meant Jacob, but the 'extreme' part I was referring to was the retirement in your 30's part (which many of the successful blogs claim to have done - MMM, MrFreeat33, RB40, GoCurryCracker, Fiery-Millenials, etc).  I don't think anyone reads any bloggers that retired at 50 with a million, although that is still considered 'early' by traditional standards.

nereo

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #68 on: June 05, 2020, 01:24:46 PM »

@nereo I think you meant Jacob, but the 'extreme' part I was referring to was the retirement in your 30's part (which many of the successful blogs claim to have done - MMM, MrFreeat33, RB40, GoCurryCracker, Fiery-Millenials, etc).  I don't think anyone reads any bloggers that retired at 50 with a million, although that is still considered 'early' by traditional standards.
Fair enough, and yes I meant Jacob, not Jason.  My bad.  I read the "retire with $1MM part" more than the "at age 30".  Lately there seems to be a backlash that $1MM is "too extremely low" to retire on, which makes me feel a bit sad for humanity.  Suze beat that horse to death (or beat it for clicks?) but it's been argued at even here.

terran

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #69 on: June 05, 2020, 01:26:40 PM »
@terran The 2008 GFC was an entirely different beast than this pandemic.  Unemployment was nowhere near as high and economic activity was higher (people could still travel, go to restaurants, go to malls, etc.).  Damage was mostly financial, and probably was more effective that Covid in making people question the idea of FIRE.  The pandemic, on the other hand, has lead to a spike in unemployment, underemployment, government stimulus, and working from home, which are gateway drugs to an ever more gig-like / FIRE-like future.  Maybe some long-term financial damage is coming, but for now most people's investments and home values are still near all time highs.

The damage was definitely not mostly financial. A whole cohort of people about 10 years younger than you has had their career permanently stunted  and gigafied thanks to the great recession. I'm part of that cohort and there's no question it left psychic scars -- just apparently not enough to get people saving for another such experience. We have yet to see how the pandemic will play out, but at least right now there's the possibility that the current very high unemployment is also very temporary and might have a drastic reversal as stay at home orders are lifted. Apparently reaction to improved jobs numbers (or at least not as bad as expected) are part of today's market rise.

Acastus

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #70 on: June 05, 2020, 02:21:26 PM »
I FIRE'd 2 years ago and finances are fine. I used to check balances every evening, but once a week is plenty now. Baseline spending is about 3% of 'stache. That leaves another 1-1.5% for extravagance. The pandemic probably squashed our big travel ideas this year, but that is temporary and based on our medical situation, not money.

sherr

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #71 on: June 05, 2020, 02:35:34 PM »
Fair enough, and yes I meant Jacob, not Jason.  My bad.  I read the "retire with $1MM part" more than the "at age 30".  Lately there seems to be a backlash that $1MM is "too extremely low" to retire on, which makes me feel a bit sad for humanity.  Suze beat that horse to death (or beat it for clicks?) but it's been argued at even here.

Well this is a rabbit trail, but another problem is that a million bucks just ain't what it used to be. MMM himself retired in 2005 with $600k and a paid-off-house. The equivalent of that is $787k and a paid-off-house today. And that's from someone who makes a game out of how frugal he can possibly be.

If you wanted to spend just a little more, and had 3 kids that you wanted to help put through college (and who knows what that's going to look like in a decade), and given the uncertainty around what healthcare in the US is going to cost? $1MM is probably enough, but it comes with enough caveats to give one pause.

nereo

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #72 on: June 05, 2020, 03:00:51 PM »
Fair enough, and yes I meant Jacob, not Jason.  My bad.  I read the "retire with $1MM part" more than the "at age 30".  Lately there seems to be a backlash that $1MM is "too extremely low" to retire on, which makes me feel a bit sad for humanity.  Suze beat that horse to death (or beat it for clicks?) but it's been argued at even here.

Well this is a rabbit trail, but another problem is that a million bucks just ain't what it used to be. MMM himself retired in 2005 with $600k and a paid-off-house. The equivalent of that is $787k and a paid-off-house today. And that's from someone who makes a game out of how frugal he can possibly be.

If you wanted to spend just a little more, and had 3 kids that you wanted to help put through college (and who knows what that's going to look like in a decade), and given the uncertainty around what healthcare in the US is going to cost? $1MM is probably enough, but it comes with enough caveats to give one pause.
At least be realistic - it is still more money than many families spend each year in very wealthy countries such as our own. And as Pete has said, “if you think this is extreme frugality you’ve missed the point”.

sherr

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #73 on: June 05, 2020, 03:05:27 PM »
Fair enough, and yes I meant Jacob, not Jason.  My bad.  I read the "retire with $1MM part" more than the "at age 30".  Lately there seems to be a backlash that $1MM is "too extremely low" to retire on, which makes me feel a bit sad for humanity.  Suze beat that horse to death (or beat it for clicks?) but it's been argued at even here.

Well this is a rabbit trail, but another problem is that a million bucks just ain't what it used to be. MMM himself retired in 2005 with $600k and a paid-off-house. The equivalent of that is $787k and a paid-off-house today. And that's from someone who makes a game out of how frugal he can possibly be.

If you wanted to spend just a little more, and had 3 kids that you wanted to help put through college (and who knows what that's going to look like in a decade), and given the uncertainty around what healthcare in the US is going to cost? $1MM is probably enough, but it comes with enough caveats to give one pause.
At least be realistic - it is still more money than many families spend each year in very wealthy countries such as our own. And as Pete has said, “if you think this is extreme frugality you’ve missed the point”.

Yes, sure, absolutely. Many families in my very wealthy country also cannot afford to help their kids pay for college or end up being driven to bankruptcy because of medical issues. I'm not saying I'd be "poor" to "only" have a million dollars, just that it's reasonable to decide you want a little more before retiring.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #74 on: June 05, 2020, 07:29:45 PM »
My country's government is throwing huge amounts of non-means tested stimulus at businesses and workers to make sure that most people are no worse off (and many are better off) even if they do lose their jobs.

I call that a bail-out. I believe in putting in some measures to soften the blow of job losses but they should be proportional and means tested.

P.S. I've never received a cent of stimulus in my life neither this year nor after the GFC.

Ok, so you are looking at this through the lens of what is happening in Australia.  That wasn't clear.
It does seem like you begrudge any support others might receive, particularly with your ending statement that "I've never received a cent of stimulus in my life".

Means-testing can be effective in some instances, but not others.  As has been discussed  here many times, a core challenge has always been what to include with means-testing.  On the asset-side of hte equation there's salary and positions, all of which are problematic (i.e, what timeframe are we considering?  Do we consider the value of the primary residence, and if so do we make an allotment for those who are renters?)  THen there's the expense side of he ledger, which might include everything from the number of dependents, household income, debt-load etc.

Going by last years' tax returns doesn't reflect who might need stimulus now.  There's also the inherent bias involved in saying this group of people deserves support to soften the blow, while these people do not.

I don't begrudge any and all stimulus but I do begrudge "stimulus" that's handed out to people who don't need it. If you've had a high income in prior years then you can make do with your savings. That's the whole point of forward planning. If you have an asset base like a paid off house you can reverse mortgage it.  Handing out stimulus which then goes into people's mortgages is neither effective nor necessary and just blows out the budget deficit. If you must hand out stimulus, give it only to the genuinely poor, who will spend it all. The middle class can wait a little while and spend their savings first.

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #75 on: June 05, 2020, 08:10:24 PM »
Living on 40k varies by the COL. I could live well on it in Wichita Kansas. Other places not so much. It also depends on how much you want to travel, hobbies, family size, etc.   Our biggest expenses are HI and out of pocket health expenses which is between 9-12k/year.  People that have substantial savings are in the best shape of course.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #76 on: June 05, 2020, 10:45:59 PM »
Living on 40k varies by the COL. I could live well on it in Wichita Kansas. Other places not so much. It also depends on how much you want to travel, hobbies, family size, etc.   Our biggest expenses are HI and out of pocket health expenses which is between 9-12k/year.  People that have substantial savings are in the best shape of course.

That's why I think FIRE is going to merge with mainstream 'normal', and this pandemic has accelerated it.  Our forum is coming from one side and 'regular people' are coming from the other side and we'll ultimately meet near the middle, both knowing we won't be collecting a gold watch after 30 years of stable, steadily increasing earnings from our one lifetime employer.
« Last Edit: June 05, 2020, 10:48:31 PM by EscapeVelocity2020 »

Retire-Canada

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #77 on: June 06, 2020, 02:19:32 PM »
That's why they anti-FIRE articles are sort of useless.

I'd go as far as to say totally useless. Good thing is it's pretty easy to spot click bait and just not waste your precious life force reading them in the first place.

marty998

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #78 on: June 06, 2020, 04:48:00 PM »
That's why they anti-FIRE articles are sort of useless.

I'd go as far as to say totally useless. Good thing is it's pretty easy to spot click bait and just not waste your precious life force reading them in the first place.

Makes me wonder why people on this site are reading those articles to begin with and posting them here for discussion!

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #79 on: June 06, 2020, 05:17:45 PM »
Is FIRE dead yet? Or is it merely pining for the fjords?



maizefolk

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #80 on: June 06, 2020, 05:18:30 PM »
Forget reading them, how do people find these articles in the first place? Outside of a rare reference here on the forum, I don't remember seeing a single headline about FIRE and COVID since this whole mess started.

I agree with those who have already pointed out that regardless of whether people's FIRE plans work out during the virus and associated economic chaos or not, people who have lived below their means and saved up many years of living expenses are going to be much better off and sleep better at night than those who never tried to FIRE at all under the same living and economic circumstances.

Retire-Canada

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #81 on: June 06, 2020, 05:53:17 PM »
Makes me wonder why people on this site are reading those articles to begin with and posting them here for discussion!

Honestly I shake my head at the number of totally sad click bait articles/video people post for discussion. It happens a lot. It's a waste of life force. You'd think the MMM FIRE crew would be better optimized in this regard.

evme

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #82 on: June 07, 2020, 12:31:56 AM »
Forget reading them, how do people find these articles in the first place? Outside of a rare reference here on the forum, I don't remember seeing a single headline about FIRE and COVID since this whole mess started.

There have been articles in the NY Times, along with many other prominent news outlets:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/style/fire-movement-stock-market-coronavirus.html

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #83 on: June 07, 2020, 09:20:05 AM »
Forget reading them, how do people find these articles in the first place? Outside of a rare reference here on the forum, I don't remember seeing a single headline about FIRE and COVID since this whole mess started.

There have been articles in the NY Times, along with many other prominent news outlets:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/style/fire-movement-stock-market-coronavirus.html

It'd be interesting if the authors of these sorts of financial pieces were to disclose their net worth.  It just occurs to me that getting financial observations from folks who are themselves just barely getting by might not be optimal.   

BigMoneyJim

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #84 on: June 07, 2020, 06:31:29 PM »
It's struck me that quite a few times I feel better about being recently retired (at then-49.5) at the start of the pandemic than I would have felt if I were still working my 6-figure job. Even though a big bear or recession at the start of retirement was one of my worst case scenarios.

A lot of that has to do with my increased cash pile designed to ride out sudden drops. But I also don't have to fret about work and whether or not it's secure. And I have a ridiculous amount of flexibility in how I personally want to behave during the pandemic. (I'm in the "OMG y'all are crazy I'm holing up for a couple of years with grocery delivery and avoiding everyone" camp, but I'm not here to influence or be influenced by others.)

Plus, if things go really badly, I'm not losing my entire stash in the next year or two or five or ten. I have a *LOT* of time to adjust my plans if it becomes necessary. And at least in the next handful of years I still have recent skills and experience and contacts (and health and energy) if I feel the need to go back to work.

As stressed as I am about the whole pandemic, I can't imagine that any other time in my life would have been a better time to experience it than right after retiring.

erutio

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #85 on: June 08, 2020, 09:23:04 AM »
Why would the FIRE movement be in any danger from COVID-19?

The regular flu kills far more internet trends every year.

lhamo

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #86 on: June 08, 2020, 10:32:41 AM »

"Samurai got bored and wanted to live an upper class lifestyle, so he went back to work. FIRE is stupid."

Snort.

I wish I knew how to draw a flow chart.  My process for assessing this type of "OMG FIRE IS IMPOSSIBLE WE ALL NEED TO GO DRIVE FOR UBER!!!" sensationalist articles basically boils down to:

1)  Click through to article
2)  See who wrote it
3)  If the author is Sam Dogan => close tab

Seriously, around 50% or more of these articles are the "Financial Samurai" predicting gloom and doom for anyone who can't live on less than $250k/year.  Not my demographic.  I think he is less of a Samurai and more of a sumo wrestler throwing his weight and media connections around.  He tends to post a "new" article regurgitating the same old stuff every 2-4 weeks.

maizefolk

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #87 on: June 08, 2020, 10:53:37 AM »

"Samurai got bored and wanted to live an upper class lifestyle, so he went back to work. FIRE is stupid."

Snort.

I wish I knew how to draw a flow chart.  My process for assessing this type of "OMG FIRE IS IMPOSSIBLE WE ALL NEED TO GO DRIVE FOR UBER!!!" sensationalist articles basically boils down to:

1)  Click through to article
2)  See who wrote it
3)  If the author is Sam Dogan => close tab

Seriously, around 50% or more of these articles are the "Financial Samurai" predicting gloom and doom for anyone who can't live on less than $250k/year.  Not my demographic.  I think he is less of a Samurai and more of a sumo wrestler throwing his weight and media connections around.  He tends to post a "new" article regurgitating the same old stuff every 2-4 weeks.

I cannot remember if I posted this in a previous thread so apologies in advance if I'm repeating myself, but I think Sam has found a pretty straightforward exploit for generating traffic to his site: build enough of an audience that people are watching what you post, then regularly post controversial or ridiculous stuff which gets covered on other blogs/news/forums. As long as you hit the write balance so that people don't stop paying attention it can work out quite well.

At this point I think he's crossed over the line for a lot of people who read about FIRE on a daily or weekly basis, but for folks more peripherally interested in the concept he still seems to be in the sweet spot where he can generate a bunch of traffic from the "wait someone said what?!" reaction.

nereo

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #88 on: June 08, 2020, 11:29:24 AM »

"Samurai got bored and wanted to live an upper class lifestyle, so he went back to work. FIRE is stupid."

Snort.

I wish I knew how to draw a flow chart.  My process for assessing this type of "OMG FIRE IS IMPOSSIBLE WE ALL NEED TO GO DRIVE FOR UBER!!!" sensationalist articles basically boils down to:

1)  Click through to article
2)  See who wrote it
3)  If the author is Sam Dogan => close tab

Seriously, around 50% or more of these articles are the "Financial Samurai" predicting gloom and doom for anyone who can't live on less than $250k/year.  Not my demographic.  I think he is less of a Samurai and more of a sumo wrestler throwing his weight and media connections around.  He tends to post a "new" article regurgitating the same old stuff every 2-4 weeks.

I cannot remember if I posted this in a previous thread so apologies in advance if I'm repeating myself, but I think Sam has found a pretty straightforward exploit for generating traffic to his site: build enough of an audience that people are watching what you post, then regularly post controversial or ridiculous stuff which gets covered on other blogs/news/forums. As long as you hit the write balance so that people don't stop paying attention it can work out quite well.

At this point I think he's crossed over the line for a lot of people who read about FIRE on a daily or weekly basis, but for folks more peripherally interested in the concept he still seems to be in the sweet spot where he can generate a bunch of traffic from the "wait someone said what?!" reaction.

Given the amount of traffic his tactics generate, Sam probably earns far more than you or I do writing about how FIRE is nearly impossible while leading a normal middle-class lifestyle.  How's that for irony?

Laura33

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #89 on: June 08, 2020, 12:14:02 PM »
My country's government is throwing huge amounts of non-means tested stimulus at businesses and workers to make sure that most people are no worse off (and many are better off) even if they do lose their jobs.

I call that a bail-out. I believe in putting in some measures to soften the blow of job losses but they should be proportional and means tested.

P.S. I've never received a cent of stimulus in my life neither this year nor after the GFC.

Ok, so you are looking at this through the lens of what is happening in Australia.  That wasn't clear.
It does seem like you begrudge any support others might receive, particularly with your ending statement that "I've never received a cent of stimulus in my life".

Means-testing can be effective in some instances, but not others.  As has been discussed  here many times, a core challenge has always been what to include with means-testing.  On the asset-side of hte equation there's salary and positions, all of which are problematic (i.e, what timeframe are we considering?  Do we consider the value of the primary residence, and if so do we make an allotment for those who are renters?)  THen there's the expense side of he ledger, which might include everything from the number of dependents, household income, debt-load etc.

Going by last years' tax returns doesn't reflect who might need stimulus now.  There's also the inherent bias involved in saying this group of people deserves support to soften the blow, while these people do not.

I don't begrudge any and all stimulus but I do begrudge "stimulus" that's handed out to people who don't need it. If you've had a high income in prior years then you can make do with your savings. That's the whole point of forward planning. If you have an asset base like a paid off house you can reverse mortgage it.  Handing out stimulus which then goes into people's mortgages is neither effective nor necessary and just blows out the budget deficit. If you must hand out stimulus, give it only to the genuinely poor, who will spend it all. The middle class can wait a little while and spend their savings first.

Depends on what the goal is.  If the goal is to provide a social safety net for people who are hit by the economic downturn, that is far and away the best way to do it.  But if your goal is to spur the economy, then the most effective way to do so is to spread as much money as you can as quickly and widely as you can.  You can't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.  Sure, there is some point at which that extra $1200 or whatever is meaningless; I mean, if you're a billionaire, that barely even qualifies as a drop in the bucket, so it's not going to change your behavior.  But there are many people below that level who may have income and assets to fall back on, who many not "need" a stimulus check, but who are likely to use it to stimulate the economy if it's provided.  If you have assets to fall back on, you likely obtained those assets by being fiscally prudent and not spending all of your income.  So if your income dives 25%, are you going to take out a reverse mortgage so you can sustain your prior lifestyle and go out to eat and continue buying clothes and toys and planning vacations?  Or are you going to cut all your excess spending, so that you can survive on your 25% paycut for as long as possible?  People who got where they are by fiscal prudence are going to continue to be fiscally prudent.  And when they cut back their discretionary purchases, those decisions do hurt the economy, and a lot of people who make a lot less end up losing their jobs as a result.*  And if you wait to better determine who will spend it and who will pocket it, then those jobs are already gone, because we have at-will employment, and employers can move much faster than the government can.  So if stimulus-for-all can help persuade many people to buy some of that stuff they'd otherwise cut, it is worth it, even if not everyone "needs" it as a social safety net.  And FWIW, in my area and amongst the people I know, there was a very strong push for those of us who could afford to do so to donate the stimulus to local charities or to intentionally spend it on local businesses that were struggling.  Because we knew that we were very fortunate to have jobs and be safe, and trying to support those who didn't and weren't was all we could do.

*Call it the corollary of the "trickle down" theory, a/k/a the "shit flows downhill" theory.  IMO, throwing some money along the entire slope is the quickest way to try to slow down the avalanche of shit at least a little.  Note also that I am not a fan of the trickle down theory; IMO, the second corollary of that theory is that shit flows downhill much faster and easier than good things "trickle," because when things do start to recover, those rich and powerful people at the top of the hill have tremendous power to hold tight to those extra benefits until their cup is filled up again.  At least this time we threw the money up and down the hill, instead of just funneling it to the top as we've done before.

mm1970

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #90 on: June 08, 2020, 12:58:53 PM »
Quote
I think this will be the interesting impact of Covid - people are spending less since their vacations are all cancelled and they aren't commuting or eating out as much, so they might get a taste of living within their means.  Lots of folks are also losing their jobs and living on 'fixed income' unemployment and managing to save and live more frugally.  On the flip side, they are working from home which is a lot more like ER than working in an office, going on business trips, and spending days in meetings.
I don't track my expenses that closely.  We canceled our vacation (but only got credit for the $3k airfare).  We aren't driving much.  We aren't paying for summer camp. 

However, my grocery bill has gone from $160 to $200+ a week and we are eating out (takeout) 2x as much (weekly, bi-monthly).  We've also purchased a lot of things for the home (a hammock, a kiddie pool), and a lot of fancy gluten free cake. We are probably soon going to pull the trigger and replace our broken oven (broke last November-ish).  I mean, it works 75% of the time.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #91 on: June 08, 2020, 06:22:29 PM »
Laura, I agree with what you said. I am principally interested in providing a social safety net and the continuing funding of free things (like education and healthcare - nb the latter is not free in the US) that will enable people to access basic services and live with dignity. I'm not huge on stimulating the consumerist economy for the sake of doing so because I think we over-consume as it is, and I think the stimulus and low interest rates have led to massive asset inflation which is harmful in the long-term even if it props up jobs in the short-term. I'd rather pop the bubble but with enough of a safety net so that no one needs to go without shelter or food.

Laura33

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #92 on: June 09, 2020, 07:29:54 AM »
Laura, I agree with what you said. I am principally interested in providing a social safety net and the continuing funding of free things (like education and healthcare - nb the latter is not free in the US) that will enable people to access basic services and live with dignity. I'm not huge on stimulating the consumerist economy for the sake of doing so because I think we over-consume as it is, and I think the stimulus and low interest rates have led to massive asset inflation which is harmful in the long-term even if it props up jobs in the short-term. I'd rather pop the bubble but with enough of a safety net so that no one needs to go without shelter or food.

Sounds like we are in violent agreement.

dougules

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #93 on: June 09, 2020, 08:13:54 AM »
1)  Click through to article

Unfortunately this is exactly what feeds the monster. 

Makes me wonder why people on this site are reading those articles to begin with and posting them here for discussion!

That's a good question really.  My guess is that we just want to go look to see who's saying what we're doing is stupid.  I think a lot of us also just enjoy a good argument whether we admit it or not.  One way or the other, the articles are specifically crafted to make you unable to resist.

I do like the fact that the OP didn't actually link to any specific clickbait articles. 

ixtap

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Re: The World Is Watching To See If COVID-19 Kills FIRE
« Reply #94 on: June 09, 2020, 08:18:03 AM »
1)  Click through to article

Unfortunately this is exactly what feeds the monster. 

Makes me wonder why people on this site are reading those articles to begin with and posting them here for discussion!

That's a good question really.  My guess is that we just want to go look to see who's saying what we're doing is stupid.  I think a lot of us also just enjoy a good argument whether we admit it or not.  One way or the other, the articles are specifically crafted to make you unable to resist.

I do like the fact that the OP didn't actually link to any specific clickbait articles.

I finished the horrible inheritance stories and need entertainment.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!