The Money Mustache Community
General Discussion => Welcome and General Discussion => Topic started by: SwordGuy on December 28, 2018, 08:56:21 PM
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2 years ago, there was a poll that asked what people's net worth is.
That's useful info to know, but it didn't tell us how well their plan is working.
If you're aiming for a given amount of passive income, via whatever plan you're using, how close are you?
For example, if you're aiming for a passive income of $40,000 using a 4% SWR via a 100% stocks and bonds portfolio, and your portfolio is now worth $500,000, you're at 50%.
If you're planning on $20,000 in rental profits and $20,000 in stock/bond profits at a 5% withdrawal rate, then if your current rental profits are $12,000 and your stock/bond portfolio is $160,000, you're at 50%, too.
If you're going to sell your $500,000 paid for house with a realtor and buy a $200,000 house and invest the rest at in stocks and bonds with a 4% SWR, then you can count the equity as $300,000 * .094 (less realtor costs) as $282,000, which would shed off $11280. Technically you have zero passive income, from this source, but, heck, the purpose is to figure out how close you are, and you're a lot closer than someone who doesn't have $300,000 in house equity that they can (and will) convert to stocks!
Oh, if you've got a $500,000 paid for house but you're not going to sell it when you FIRE, it counts as $0 towards your target income.
If you participated in the last 2 years, add a comment to let us know which categories you are in now and where you were in prior years.
I'm curious! Enquiring minds want to know! :)
You can see last year's poll here if you're interested in comparing results:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/what's-your-current-eoy-2017-of-your-target-passive-income/ (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/what's-your-current-eoy-2017-of-your-target-passive-income/)
And the poll 2 years ago here:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/how-close-to-fi-are-you-what's-your-current-of-your-target-passive-income (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/how-close-to-fi-are-you-what's-your-current-of-your-target-passive-income)
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At the end of last year we were at 110% and up, NOT FIREd. This year we're still at 110% and up, but now we're FIREd. Well, FIRd. We missed out on the E for Early part because we didn't learn about this soon enough.
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100.01 to 110% and NOT FIREd
That's based on a fairly FAT fire for me, and I'm happy if it stays about there until I FIRE in the next 6 to 16 months.
I'm about 280% for barebones FIRE. It was over 300% back in Sept. and early October.
Oh, I didn't vote in those past polls.
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We are at least half way there. Assuming I understood the question and did the math right. :) I excluded home equity from the equation because we have no plans to sell...unless we have to.
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I excluded home equity from the equation because we have no plans to sell...unless we have to.
Correct!
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As of Thursday (12/27) we were at 79.5%. I am still targeting a 28x spending stash (about 3.6% WR based on the SWR series at Early Retirement Now.)
Last year’s survey we were at 76%. In March of this past year my wife quit her job (a non-epic FU money move) so that reduced our accumulation a bit. Then there was the equities market. (One week ago we were at 77%, so that just goes to show how the market has not worked for us this year. If the market had just been “average” we should have ended at 84%.)
All that being said I am still on track to reach my FIRE stash amount in 2021 (albeit later in the year).
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As of Thursday (12/27) we were at 79.5%. I am still targeting a 28x spending stash (about 3.6% WR based on the SWR series as Early Retirement Now.)
Last year’s survey we were at 76%. In March of this past year my wife quit her job (a non-epic FU money move) so that reduced our Accumulation a bit. Then there was the equities market. (One week ago we were at 77%, so that just goes to show how the market has not worked for us this year. If the market had just been “average” we should have ended at 84%.)
All that being said I am still on track to reach my FIRE stash amount in 2021 (albeit later in the year).
2021 will be here faster than you would believe possible...
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Interesting phenomenon though, with the market flopping around I am doing new analyses and getting some confidence back on how I could still go as planned rather than wait OMY. The trip through the chaos has helped me get tuned up on my plan. I have been re-reading some inspirational stuff and trying to get a grip.
I've been tracking the market closely this year. The big swings have been great because I've been inoculated to some degree.
Down $50,000 in a day? Ho-hum.
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I've been in the same category for 3 years, it's been rough with employment changes the past 2 years! Pretty sure we'll move up a notch by next year though.
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I've been in the same category for 3 years, it's been rough with employment changes the past 2 years! Pretty sure we'll move up a notch by next year though.
It takes a bit before the compounding starts to kick in with big results. This down market is a bonus for you. It will feel like you're getting nowhere and then, when the market rises again, you'll see some awesome results.
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I've been in the same category for 3 years, it's been rough with employment changes the past 2 years! Pretty sure we'll move up a notch by next year though.
It takes a bit before the compounding starts to kick in with big results. This down market is a bonus for you. It will feel like you're getting nowhere and then, when the market rises again, you'll see some awesome results.
That's what I'm hoping for! We set our automatic contributions at a level to make 2019 our highest savings in $$ year yet!
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FIREing at the end of March!!
I really hope to get bunches of money into the market before it starts to ratchet up again.
LV
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I didn't participate in 2016, but in 2017 I was in the 80-90% and not FIREd group. After the drop we're at either 90-100% or 100-110% and not FIREd, depending on our budget update and the withdrawal rate we finally decide we're comfortable with. I voted as 90-100% and not FIREd because I would probably be ok but very nervous if I actually did something worthy of the Epic FU money thread.
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I went with 100% to 110% and FIREd. We FIRE'd at the end of November 18 and have already moved to the Mediterranean. I just opened up my spreadsheet that used to forecast years to retirement based on current wealth, planned annual savings and an assumed real annual 4% return which after the Mr Market fun of recent weeks/months now suggests I have 0.02 years to FIRE. That's based on a 2.5%+Investment Expenses SWR.
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FI and RE. At 110% plus right now and save a bit of the passive FIRE income each year.
Nice work. Similar strategy here. We're planning on living on 85% of dividends paid so that a little is reinvested (to refresh to 3x annual expenses in cash or into stocks/bonds if already at 3x) during the good times. Have spent a little more in our first month of FIRE as had to pay for removal to the Med plus all our annual insurances (healthcare being the big one) to get us established.
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Kind of funny looking at the progression. I jump into the next bracket each year. Puts me pretty much on track.
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Kind of funny looking at the progression. I jump into the next bracket each year. Puts me pretty much on track.
I was lower down a a few months ago before the recent market pull back.
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Kind of funny looking at the progression. I jump into the next bracket each year. Puts me pretty much on track.
@matchewed ,
10+% a year? That's excellent progress!
Are you using an indexed market portfolio, real estate, or ???
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FI and RE. At 110% plus right now and save a bit of the passive FIRE income each year.
Nice work. Similar strategy here. We're planning on living on 85% of dividends paid so that a little is reinvested (to refresh to 3x annual expenses in cash or into stocks/bonds if already at 3x) during the good times. Have spent a little more in our first month of FIRE as had to pay for removal to the Med plus all our annual insurances (healthcare being the big one) to get us established.
@RetirementInvestingToday ,
So you're not using stock price appreciation (and sales of shares) as part of your SWR?
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Kind of funny looking at the progression. I jump into the next bracket each year. Puts me pretty much on track.
@matchewed ,
10+% a year? That's excellent progress!
Are you using an indexed market portfolio, real estate, or ???
A mix of indexing and real estate.
I'm probably on the lower side of the spending scale for this crowd and have decent income. Not the six figures many of the forum participants have but solid enough to hit the goals and live the life I want.
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Kind of funny looking at the progression. I jump into the next bracket each year. Puts me pretty much on track.
@matchewed ,
10+% a year? That's excellent progress!
Are you using an indexed market portfolio, real estate, or ???
A mix of indexing and real estate.
I'm probably on the lower side of the spending scale for this crowd and have decent income. Not the six figures many of the forum participants have but solid enough to hit the goals and live the life I want.
Yes, real estate can be a real FIRE accelerant! 4% of a $100,000 stock/bond portfolio yields $4000 in income. Or, in my area, $50,000 for a rental home plus some sweat equity was producing at least that much income (plus a $30,000 jump in Net Worth for making the repairs).
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Fire'd, Currently at 100% of what our goal was to be so and about 125% of what we need. Excluding paid for house of course.
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FIREd in March at 104%. At the market peak this year I was just over 110%. Ending the year at 98%.
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Congrats to all the folks who either FIRED over the last year or who got their finances in order so they could. Job well done!
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FI and RE. At 110% plus right now and save a bit of the passive FIRE income each year.
Nice work. Similar strategy here. We're planning on living on 85% of dividends paid so that a little is reinvested (to refresh to 3x annual expenses in cash or into stocks/bonds if already at 3x) during the good times. Have spent a little more in our first month of FIRE as had to pay for removal to the Med plus all our annual insurances (healthcare being the big one) to get us established.
@RetirementInvestingToday ,
So you're not using stock price appreciation (and sales of shares) as part of your SWR?
That's certainly the aim - whether I manage to achieve it over 40 years or so of retirement is a different question. My FIRE strategy, which I've now enacted given I FIRE'd in Nov 17, is twofold. Spending is the lower of:
- a 2.5% WR based on wealth on my retirement day which I'll uprate with inflation annually; and/or
- 85% of peak annual dividends with me going into FIRE with a 3 year spend cash buffer. The theory here is that if dividends increase my spending can increase while also contributing a little to my wealth building (the 15%). That will work until the next big bear that sees dividends cut. At that point I hold spending which will mean I'm now spending dividends plus some cash buffer. I continue that until a new peak dividends are reached and my cash buffer is replenished at which time I can then start increasing my spend again.
With how my portfolio currently sits it's the 85% of peak annual dividends that's driving my spending. If it's of interest I put a little time into the strategy here http://www.retirementinvestingtoday.com/2015/09/living-off-dividends-in-early-retirement.html
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FI and RE. At 110% plus right now and save a bit of the passive FIRE income each year.
Nice work. Similar strategy here. We're planning on living on 85% of dividends paid so that a little is reinvested (to refresh to 3x annual expenses in cash or into stocks/bonds if already at 3x) during the good times. Have spent a little more in our first month of FIRE as had to pay for removal to the Med plus all our annual insurances (healthcare being the big one) to get us established.
@RetirementInvestingToday ,
So you're not using stock price appreciation (and sales of shares) as part of your SWR?
That's certainly the aim - whether I manage to achieve it over 40 years or so of retirement is a different question. My FIRE strategy, which I've now enacted given I FIRE'd in Nov 17, is twofold. Spending is the lower of:
- a 2.5% WR based on wealth on my retirement day which I'll uprate with inflation annually; and/or
- 85% of peak annual dividends with me going into FIRE with a 3 year spend cash buffer. The theory here is that if dividends increase my spending can increase while also contributing a little to my wealth building (the 15%). That will work until the next big bear that sees dividends cut. At that point I hold spending which will mean I'm now spending dividends plus some cash buffer. I continue that until a new peak dividends are reached and my cash buffer is replenished at which time I can then start increasing my spend again.
With how my portfolio currently sits it's the 85% of peak annual dividends that's driving my spending. If it's of interest I put a little time into the strategy here http://www.retirementinvestingtoday.com/2015/09/living-off-dividends-in-early-retirement.html
Thanks, I'll check that out!
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So far, 15.6% of the people who have responded are either FIRED or FIRE-Ready.
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Kind of funny looking at the progression. I jump into the next bracket each year. Puts me pretty much on track.
@matchewed ,
10+% a year? That's excellent progress!
Are you using an indexed market portfolio, real estate, or ???
A mix of indexing and real estate.
I'm probably on the lower side of the spending scale for this crowd and have decent income. Not the six figures many of the forum participants have but solid enough to hit the goals and live the life I want.
Yes, real estate can be a real FIRE accelerant! 4% of a $100,000 stock/bond portfolio yields $4000 in income. Or, in my area, $50,000 for a rental home plus some sweat equity was producing at least that much income (plus a $30,000 jump in Net Worth for making the repairs).
Yeah the property we have is a multifamily, while we're in it, it is revenue neutral. When we move out we should be seeing around 10k annual. That's about a third of our expenditures. Given those factors and a solid savings rate it is rather easy to move leaps and bounds each year.
Our plan is to supplement with some odd jobs and the like as needed. Our band is in three to six years we will FIRE.
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Fun!
47.5% assuming 24k per annum.
~60% of baseline FI ($24k/yr)
70.3% assuming $24k, but in true MMM/ERE spirit I dropped my actual trailing 12 month expenses to $17.5k, bringing me to 96% based on real spending #'s.
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This is a fascinating thread - not spotted the previous poll. I agree, it makes much more sense to look at % FIREd rather than net worth.
We have a simple target of £1m throwing off £40k / year, but I find it demoralising that I only have c £170k saved in tax free trackers. This is what I see in terms of invested cash.
Then I remember the £300k pension pot, plus a couple of final salary pension transfer values totalling £260k (no, not transferred to cash) - and suddenly I realise this seems doable - with my OH, we’re at 73%.
Still a way to go, but didn’t I read somewhere that one might expect savings to roughly double every 10 years or so?
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This is a fascinating thread - not spotted the previous poll. I agree, it makes much more sense to look at % FIREd rather than net worth.
@Slow road to freedom
Thanks! I think it's the one universally applicable measurement that we can track progress with.
Still a way to go, but didn’t I read somewhere that one might expect savings to roughly double every 10 years or so?
The "rule of 72" is an approximation that you can use to figure that out. Divide the growth percentage into 72 and that's about how many years it will take to double. It's my understanding that the broad US market has historically returned about 7% (after subtracting inflation).
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Currently, 14.9% of respondents are either FIRED or FIRE-ready.
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I guestimated 100-110 and we are FIRED.
Even with the downturn we are at 2.5% or so for "fun money". The bulk of our budget comes from my military pension and VA disability, so we are a bit of an outlier in this community.
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Wow,
That was enlightening.... lol.
Divorce did not help =/
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Wow,
That was enlightening.... lol.
Divorce did not help =/
I feel for you.
On the plus side, other things are simpler.
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Currently, 14.4% of respondents are either FIRED or FIRE-ready.
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No lurking! :)
Register and vote!
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Started the journey last year, currently just over 1%.
Less then I planned but the plans changed around the summer, partially due to health issues and partially due to the fact that I changed my mind about joining the workforce after my bachelor and continue with my masters.
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Started the journey last year, currently just over 1%.
Less then I planned but the plans changed around the summer, partially due to health issues and partially due to the fact that I changed my mind about joining the workforce after my bachelor and continue with my masters.
You're at 1% right out of college? That's excellent! A whole lot of folks are definitely in below zero territory at that point in their lives!
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Currently, 12.8% of respondents are either FIRED or FIRE-ready. I expect numbers to be down a bit this time simply because the market dropped. But we'll see...
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I'm at 5-10%. I'm still not sure what my final number will be. Maybe around 350,000 €? It's still a long time away, and my spending is probably going to change, and inflation might be a factor as well.
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30%. Even with down market we picked up almost 7% this year.
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30%. Even with down market we picked up almost 7% this year.
Great!
Early in the process payroll contributions generally matter the most, later on it's the market that matters most.
Good news is when the market gets back up again you'll be even better off since you're buying shares in bulk on sale!
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I'm at 5-10%. I'm still not sure what my final number will be. Maybe around 350,000 €? It's still a long time away, and my spending is probably going to change, and inflation might be a factor as well.
If you are investing in stocks or rental property, they tend to turn a profit on top of inflation. So although you'll need more money, you'll most likely get that anyway. CFireSim, FireCalc, or just using a 7% return on your stock index holdings in your custom projections will cover inflation.
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So far, 14% of the people who have responded are either FIRED or FIRE-Ready.
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I was touching right at 100% at the top of the market and closer to 90% now, though its all fairly grey as I'm still trying to settle on what my target income is.
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I was touching right at 100% at the top of the market and closer to 90% now, though its all fairly grey as I'm still trying to settle on what my target income is.
There's a tough problem. Not one that many folks would commiserate with you with, though. :)
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148 respondents at the moment. The last two polls had 500 and 320 respondents.
Get out the vote!
Enquiring minds want to know how you are doing!
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Tell us some more stories about where you are and how you're getting there! :)
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We're at 110.01+ % and FIRED.
Income is a blend of rented out farmland, rental homes, stocks and bonds, and social security.
We have some US savings bonds that have matured and we're about ready to cash them in. Don't know whether we'll be able to do that in a timely manner at the moment. That may impact our ability to invest in real estate this year as they are enough to buy and refurbish a rental home similar to those we already have -- without requiring us to take out a loan or sell our stock.
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12.8% are FIRED or FIRE-ready. We need to hear from more folks!
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Activity and participation on the boards have ebb'd and flowed with the market, it seems.
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Activity and participation on the boards have ebb'd and flowed with the market, it seems.
You may be right!
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Activity and participation on the boards have ebb'd and flowed with the market, it seems.
We're pretty diversified. Between several different index funds for stocks, some US bonds, some farmland and homes we rent out, and some social security, we've tried to spread our risk around.
So even though we FIRED midway thru last year, we actually had our net worth go up (a small amount) last year.
When we're renovating a house to rent out, I consider it worth what we paid for it until it's rent-ready. Then I take into account the value all the improvements made to the value of the house. Our End-of-Year Net Worth would have gone up another $33K if we had finished repairing rental #4 in December instead of later this month.
Think about that! We not only quit both our jobs half way thru the year, but we now have more wealth than we did at the start of the year -- and that's in a market that went down a bit for the year.
Is this a great country or what!!??
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Just broke into the 10-20% range. I am a Index investor and am counting dividends only as yearly returns in the market is too short a time period as proven last year.
ETA: Just removed my vote, I'm way above the 10-20% range based on total plan. I don't have the coffee in me to figure it out right now.
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@SwordGuy, it sure is!!
I'm lucky enough that my firehose of cash and relatively low assets allowed for a 15% NW increase for 2018, despite losing quite a bit in the market.
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@SwordGuy, it sure is!!
I'm lucky enough that my firehose of cash and relatively low assets allowed for a 15% NW increase for 2018, despite losing quite a bit in the market.
@2Birds1Stone , funny, 'cause I think I'm lucky to have my NW drop by lots when the market drops. :)
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As of today I am at 107%, not FIRED. This includes the 17% loss of stache since the end of September.
I am starting to figure that my planned SWR is over-conservative and I really can do a straight up 4% without worries. If I go as I hoped I will be 50 and according to the recently posted death chart I might only need 36 years of money instead of my expected later exit. Lucky that! /sarc.
Interesting phenomenon though, with the market flopping around I am doing new analyses and getting some confidence back on how I could still go as planned rather than wait OMY. The trip through the chaos has helped me get tuned up on my plan. I have been re-reading some inspirational stuff and trying to get a grip.
Sheesh, my posts are giving me whiplash-- Will she? Won't she? Tune in tomorrow and see if Nancy gets off the pot.
@MissNancyPryor , is you is or is you ain't?
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I didn't participate in 2016, but in 2017 I was in the 80-90% and not FIREd group. After the drop we're at either 90-100% or 100-110% and not FIREd, depending on our budget update and the withdrawal rate we finally decide we're comfortable with. I voted as 90-100% and not FIREd because I would probably be ok but very nervous if I actually did something worthy of the Epic FU money thread.
@FIRE 20/20 , yeah, I found my tolerance for bullshit started to dramatically drop in the last couple of years I worked. Thankfully, we're done with that.
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Halfway to getting the same number of people voting as last time. Get your votes in! :)
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I was touching right at 100% at the top of the market and closer to 90% now, though its all fairly grey as I'm still trying to settle on what my target income is.
@Much Fishing to Do ,
Where has the recent up-tick in the market put you?
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Look guys, if you want this poll to get a lot of votes, it has to stay near the top of the list in its category. That means it needs to be posted to every day until polling closes on5-Feb.
Y'all aren't giving me much to work with... Include some background to go with your vote!
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Currently, 14.6% are either FIRED or FIRE-ready.
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We started this journey later in life, and figure we can just about retire at age 60-62 and pick up our social security, which will help us, so not counting the SS, the wife and I are at about 40-45%.
FI should be in about 4-5 years, with retirement at about 60 for the wife and 62 for me.
All of this depends on a lot of things, so we'll see how that works out. Luckily we both like what we do...
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We started this journey later in life, and figure we can just about retire at age 60-62 and pick up our social security, which will help us, so not counting the SS, the wife and I are at about 40-45%.
FI should be in about 4-5 years, with retirement at about 60 for the wife and 62 for me.
All of this depends on a lot of things, so we'll see how that works out. Luckily we both like what we do...
Very cool! I FIRED at 60 (learned the info MMM shares late in life) so I totally get where you're at.
Make sure your FIRE plans work with just one person's SS. Use the other person's SS as a safety buffer or for fun money. That's because if one of you dies, the smaller of the two SS checks will disappear. :( For some reason I almost never see that mentioned in the FIRE literature...
One of the cool things about being on the FIRE path is that it's so flexible once you get a bit of momentum built up.
Stocks keep going up for the next 5 years? Woot! You'll fire with more money!
Stocks go down for the next few years but you keep investing? Woot! You'll fire with more money!
As long as your FIRE date is a bit flexible, it literally is a win-win situation.
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Since joining MMM in 2015 when i was somewhere around -0.5% to 0.5% I have seen my % go up about 4.5% annually (so that means I am at 18% now). I wonder how much of that was market growth...
I have to say I picked a withdrawal rate of 4%, generating 40K, even though I haven't ever spent more than 24K in my life (just planning for hiccups in life!). So I could be much closer to my goal... or not.
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Since joining MMM in 2015 when i was somewhere around -0.5% to 0.5% I have seen my % go up about 4.5% annually (so that means I am at 18% now). I wonder how much of that was market growth...
I have to say I picked a withdrawal rate of 4%, generating 40K, even though I haven't ever spent more than 24K in my life (just planning for hiccups in life!). So I could be much closer to my goal... or not.
So, @JZinCO , 18% of the way to a Fat FIRE and 30% to a Lean FIRE. Not bad for 3-4 years!
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274% and FIREd.
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Since joining MMM in 2015 when i was somewhere around -0.5% to 0.5% I have seen my % go up about 4.5% annually (so that means I am at 18% now). I wonder how much of that was market growth...
I have to say I picked a withdrawal rate of 4%, generating 40K, even though I haven't ever spent more than 24K in my life (just planning for hiccups in life!). So I could be much closer to my goal... or not.
So, @JZinCO , 18% of the way to a Fat FIRE and 30% to a Lean FIRE. Not bad for 3-4 years!
Thank you! The encouragements on this forum mean alot, especially from those like you who have accomplished much. Sometimes it feels like watching water boil.
Kudos to everyone else!
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I didn't participate in 2016, but in 2017 I was in the 80-90% and not FIREd group. After the drop we're at either 90-100% or 100-110% and not FIREd, depending on our budget update and the withdrawal rate we finally decide we're comfortable with. I voted as 90-100% and not FIREd because I would probably be ok but very nervous if I actually did something worthy of the Epic FU money thread.
With the market growth since I posted this, a minor reassessment (downward) to our FIRE budget, plus contributions we're now about 110% of our target. I'm feeling more and more confident about pulling the plug in a few months.
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I didn't participate in 2016, but in 2017 I was in the 80-90% and not FIREd group. After the drop we're at either 90-100% or 100-110% and not FIREd, depending on our budget update and the withdrawal rate we finally decide we're comfortable with. I voted as 90-100% and not FIREd because I would probably be ok but very nervous if I actually did something worthy of the Epic FU money thread.
With the market growth since I posted this, a minor reassessment (downward) to our FIRE budget, plus contributions we're now about 110% of our target. I'm feeling more and more confident about pulling the plug in a few months.
Yeah @FIRE 20/20 !!!! Did you sign up on the 2019 Cohort thread?
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I was touching right at 100% at the top of the market and closer to 90% now, though its all fairly grey as I'm still trying to settle on what my target income is.
@Much Fishing to Do ,
Where has the recent up-tick in the market put you?
Like the market in general about half way back to the top, so about at 95% using the same target numbers. BUt I'm also starting to believe that target was higher than needed so maybe its really more like 100% now anyway.
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I didn't participate in 2016, but in 2017 I was in the 80-90% and not FIREd group. After the drop we're at either 90-100% or 100-110% and not FIREd, depending on our budget update and the withdrawal rate we finally decide we're comfortable with. I voted as 90-100% and not FIREd because I would probably be ok but very nervous if I actually did something worthy of the Epic FU money thread.
With the market growth since I posted this, a minor reassessment (downward) to our FIRE budget, plus contributions we're now about 110% of our target. I'm feeling more and more confident about pulling the plug in a few months.
Yeah @FIRE 20/20 !!!! Did you sign up on the 2019 Cohort thread?
Yep, I signed up for the 2020 thread back in 2016 and moved into the 2019 cohort thread in 2017. 4 more months!
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I didn't participate in 2016, but in 2017 I was in the 80-90% and not FIREd group. After the drop we're at either 90-100% or 100-110% and not FIREd, depending on our budget update and the withdrawal rate we finally decide we're comfortable with. I voted as 90-100% and not FIREd because I would probably be ok but very nervous if I actually did something worthy of the Epic FU money thread.
With the market growth since I posted this, a minor reassessment (downward) to our FIRE budget, plus contributions we're now about 110% of our target. I'm feeling more and more confident about pulling the plug in a few months.
Yeah @FIRE 20/20 !!!! Did you sign up on the 2019 Cohort thread?
Yep, I signed up for the 2020 thread back in 2016 and moved into the 2019 cohort thread in 2017. 4 more months!
I don't know how to explain that this is possible, but that 4 months will go incredibly fast and take forever all at the same time.
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I didn't participate in 2016, but in 2017 I was in the 80-90% and not FIREd group. After the drop we're at either 90-100% or 100-110% and not FIREd, depending on our budget update and the withdrawal rate we finally decide we're comfortable with. I voted as 90-100% and not FIREd because I would probably be ok but very nervous if I actually did something worthy of the Epic FU money thread.
With the market growth since I posted this, a minor reassessment (downward) to our FIRE budget, plus contributions we're now about 110% of our target. I'm feeling more and more confident about pulling the plug in a few months.
Yeah @FIRE 20/20 !!!! Did you sign up on the 2019 Cohort thread?
Yep, I signed up for the 2020 thread back in 2016 and moved into the 2019 cohort thread in 2017. 4 more months!
I don't know how to explain that this is possible ,but that 4 months will go both incredibly fast and take absolutely forever at the same time.
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Currently at 13.4% FIRED or FIRE-ready.
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274% and FIREd.
Wow, @secondcor521 ! 274%!!! Did you fire some years back and your stash has grown in the bull market?
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274% and FIREd.
Wow, @secondcor521 ! 274%!!! Did you fire some years back and your stash has grown in the bull market?
I retired in February 2016. There are several reasons for the large number.
First, I hit my FIRE number somewhere in 2014 but was still enjoying the job and liked the additional safety factor, so I kept working another two years.
Second, I made a conservative assumption that I would earn no money (except portfolio income like dividends) after FIRE. This has not been the case - I currently receive about 1.25% of my FIRE stash in what I call non-portfolio income - this directly reduces my WR.
Third, as you note, I retired at a fortunate time vis-a-vis the markets. My portfolio, which is mostly VTSAX, is up perhaps 25% since I retired.
Fourth, I've found that some of my spending was stress-related. As I FIREd and my stress level dropped, the spending associated with that stopped as well.
Fifth, now that I'm FIREd I can optimize some of my spending even more just because I have the time to do so. I don't need to, but it's a game I like to play. For example, I flew to my sister's house for Thanksgiving. The flight back home on a Monday would have been about $300. I stayed until Wednesday since I didn't have to be back at work and flew home for about $50. My auto insurance has dropped since the miles I drive are fewer. My utilities should drop over time as I do home improvement projects such as improve the insulation and so forth.
As a general rule, I'm extraordinarily conservative and enjoy not spending money probably more than I enjoy spending money most of the time. I also claim to be nervous about my three kids' college expenses that are coming up over the next several years, but that may turn out to be an excuse to be uber safe. Finally, I am unimaginitively boring, so paying $1 or $2 to play bridge for an afternoon or $5 for a Starbucks coffee is my idea of blowing dough.
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... Finally, I am unimaginitively boring, so paying $1 or $2 to play bridge for an afternoon or $5 for a Starbucks coffee is my idea of blowing dough.
And yet I read your story with great interest...
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I'm curious. Would any of you switch categories on a 10% change in the market (up or down)?
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I'm curious. Would any of you switch categories on a 10% change in the market (up or down)?
Yes, it would definitely place us in a different category.
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Yup, my core expenses = $12k/yr
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Yup, my core expenses = $12k/yr
Wow. $12K!!?? That's really low. I know one person whose core expenses would be that low and his rent's about to go up. (I know because he's a left-over tenant in a duplex I bought.)
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Yes because we're on the edge of the next category.
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Only 10 more days for folks to get their votes in!!!
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Wow. $12K!!?? That's really low. I know one person whose core expenses would be that low and his rent's about to go up. (I know because he's a left-over tenant in a duplex I bought.)
Yup! I'm more ERE than MMM :)
$550 - Rent (Includes water/electric/heat/WiFi)
$120 - Insurance (Car/Renters)
$120 - Groceries
$100 - Health/Hygiene
$80 - Gas
$20 - Gym
$10 - Car Registration/Oil Changes
$1k/month total.
Then you add in stuff like gifts/charity, travel, entertainment, etc and for 2018 spending was still ~$17k
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135% at the end of December. One more year (golden handcuffs) and I'll be done.
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135% at the end of December. One more year (golden handcuffs) and I'll be done.
@mak1277, I understand that! Just don't make it 2 more years!!! :)
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Yup, my core expenses = $12k/yr
Wow. $12K!!?? That's really low. I know one person whose core expenses would be that low and his rent's about to go up. (I know because he's a left-over tenant in a duplex I bought.)
Our property tax alone is more than that. Property tax in our state is very high compared to national average. We will likely move in the next few years.
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Only a few more days to get your data into this poll!
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I was touching right at 100% at the top of the market and closer to 90% now, though its all fairly grey as I'm still trying to settle on what my target income is.
We're in the same boat re: target income. Our known expenses will fluctuate a fair amount over the next couple decades as the kids move in and out of college. Beyond that there is a lot of uncertainty about health care costs, how much we may want to spend on travel, etc.
Based on 4% SWR, our investments cover between 64%-98% of our target income. So I'll pick 77% and vote accordingly.
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Market has been good so I amended by vote 1 notch down.
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Poll ends in a couple of days.
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I'm right around 40% and I voted on the low side.
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I'm right around 40% and I voted on the low side.
40% is serious progress!
A couple of years of bad market returns while you continue to invest and you'll suddenly, when the market rebounds, you'll be way higher than you expected! :)
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The 2016 poll I had us at 30-40%, last year at 40-50%, and for 2018, unfortunately, also 40-50%.
That said, as of today (beginning of February), we're in the 50-60% vote. We were there earlier in 2018 as well, but that December drop cost us about $40k.
I'm expecting that for next year we'll be able to bump up again to the 60-70%.
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I'm right around 40% and I voted on the low side.
40% is serious progress!
A couple of years of bad market returns while you continue to invest and you'll suddenly, when the market rebounds, you'll be way higher than you expected! :)
It sure is! Since I've been floating back and forth across the cutoff the past few months, I picked low.
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Tomorrow is the last day of the poll. Get your answer in pronto and check back in the evening for the final results!
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Almost out of time to vote!
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15.3% are FIRED or FI.
And a bunch of people who are making some serious progress towards FIRE.