Author Topic: Time management and estimation  (Read 7412 times)

tomq04

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Time management and estimation
« on: August 21, 2015, 11:47:10 AM »
I've found in my life that in general I grossly underestimate the amount of time required on any given task/project.  I have made conscious efforts to actively double my initial estimate with a project.

Ex: Until recently I would plan 2 Saturday projects (cleaning + hike) and realize that the cleaning project actually took all day or more.  We finally have experienced success in planning on taking all day on any Saturday project and anything left over in the afternoon can be bonus time.  Over all this has created more successful projects, and less stressful Saturdays.

Is this a common problem for everyone else? Or am I just overly optimistic in my capabilities?

velocistar237

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2015, 12:48:20 PM »
This is a common problem; most people are overly optimistic of their capabilities. I try to estimate the time something will take and multiply by 3.

matchewed

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2015, 12:50:37 PM »
My SO laughs a bit at my expense when I hedge on time tables. But my experience mirrors yours. Things take way more time than initial thoughts, so I change my initial thoughts. It's solved most of the "I think I can finish this in X time." and never deliver. Now I usually finish earlier than my estimates.

Grosgrain

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2015, 01:31:26 PM »
OP - Are you my fiancee?  He makes a mental list of about a dozen things he thinks we can get done on a weekend, which we are theoretically going to fit in around a family dinner with his folks, taking the dog to the lake, going grocery shopping, cleaning out the garage and tiling the bathroom.  Umm... sure.  And then he is butthurt when every item isn't checked off come Sunday night.

Thankfully, in our years together, repeated failures - and my refusal to get up from the lawn chair after 3 hours of weeding - have taught him that reality must be taken into account when making plans.   

WildJager

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2015, 03:01:13 PM »
Ah, but isn't this the beauty of being independent?  I simply keep a rolling "to do" list and check them off as available.  Everything accomplished is an accomplishment, everything else waits until tomorrow for the next round of fun activity.  I get more worried when my list becomes empty... Life can get boring without things to do.

TrMama

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2015, 03:09:09 PM »
Huh, did I write this post?

In a bid to get my house cleaner in less time I recently did a bit of research on how cleaning companies clean homes. I now have a new method that takes less time and leaves the house cleaner. Still takes 2-3 hours though.

tomq04

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2015, 03:45:14 PM »
Glad it's not just me.

This (whole) weekends project is to power wash the house and deck, and protect the showing wood on the edges (actual deck is trex, only the support is wood).

I think it should be more than doable.

TrMama

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2015, 04:09:42 PM »
If you mean paint, when you say protect, then the project should actually take a few weeks. Wash this weekend and then let the wood dry for the next 3 weeks. Pressure washing drives moisture deep into the wood. If you paint/stain/whatever before the wood's had a chance to really dry it can cause the paint/stain to bubble and peel off when the moisture tries to evaporate from underneath.

Ask me how I know . . .

big_slacker

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2015, 04:13:24 PM »
I work in a billable position. When we estimate time I usually go with what I think the job will take me. 1.5x that is what it will usually take but we'll quote 2x. Better to go under than over.

Melody

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2015, 04:42:55 PM »
Huh, did I write this post?

In a bid to get my house cleaner in less time I recently did a bit of research on how cleaning companies clean homes. I now have a new method that takes less time and leaves the house cleaner. Still takes 2-3 hours though.
Can you post some of the tips here. That sounds like a great idea.

ChrisLansing

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2015, 04:52:12 PM »
I used to overestimate how long things would take.  I have two ways of dealing with that. 

1.  Think about everything involved, not just doing the work.   For example, I'm painting the exterior of my house.   I know the painting itself doesn't take that long, but there is the prep, and there is getting out the materials and the ladders.   There is the time needed to go to the paint store.   There is the time needed to lay out drop cloths and cover things, and tape things, etc. etc.   When you think about all of the steps involved (don't forget putting everything away properly) then your estimates become closer to reality. 

2.  Just work for a given number of hours then knock off.   Obviously if your near a logical end point (don't stop painting your front door right in the middle, finish the door then knock off)  then you run into a little "overtime".   Clean until 2pm, then go on your hike, for example.   

tomq04

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #11 on: August 24, 2015, 09:44:07 AM »
Glad it's not just me.

This (whole) weekends project is to power wash the house and deck, and protect the showing wood on the edges (actual deck is trex, only the support is wood).

I think it should be more than doable.

Strangely enough...didn't get done!

We're close, only a few sections need stain, and then likely a 2nd coat later this week...the actual power washing took much longer than anticipated, and then the smoke was much worse yesterday and we didn't spend much time outside.

Bob W

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #12 on: August 24, 2015, 11:23:29 AM »
I have a list of over 500 items that need addressing at home currently.   My time estimates are realistic and there is about 1,500 hours of work there and over 5K in costs.   My wife likes to add things daily with "we need to."   The "we" part is a massive exaggeration as she does not have the skills needed to do about 90% of the items.

I happily keep the list (oh shit,  I think I lost it?) and then just go to the river, or lake with her and little man and hang out in the sun.   I know the list will be there tomorrow,  the day after and after I'm dead.  But the river day is only a one time moment that cannot be kept on a list.   It must be done. 

So my advice to you is to prioritize fun stuff over projects and cleaning-   The gutter will get cleaned after the river day ---- or oh shit  -- maybe never. 

MrsPete

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #13 on: August 24, 2015, 08:37:04 PM »
I've found in my life that in general I grossly underestimate the amount of time required on any given task/project.  I have made conscious efforts to actively double my initial estimate with a project.

Ex: Until recently I would plan 2 Saturday projects (cleaning + hike) and realize that the cleaning project actually took all day or more.  We finally have experienced success in planning on taking all day on any Saturday project and anything left over in the afternoon can be bonus time.  Over all this has created more successful projects, and less stressful Saturdays.

Is this a common problem for everyone else? Or am I just overly optimistic in my capabilities?
Serious question: How old are you? 

I ask because I'm pretty good at estimating how much time a certain task will take me, but my students -- oh, my, time management is the single thing they do worst.  When I sit down to work, I make a plan, and I DO IT.  When I give them a task -- and I'm talking about even my very best, cream of the crop students -- they dilly-dally about, they arrange their materials, they take a break, they talk a while, they mess with their phones, they work a bit, then discuss, then change the plan halfway through, they come to me for advice, they take another break ... typically they spend 3-4 hours doing what I can do in one hour.  It's because they don't work efficiently.  They don't get down to business and work. 

My older daughter went away to college in this wishy-washy state, but she transformed herself into a working machine.  She's a senior now, and the girl is efficient.  She's a serious work horse when she sets her mind to it.  She gets stuff done right the first time because she doesn't want to go back and waste time at it a second time.  She's me. 

My younger child isn't "there yet", but I see her improving.   

Nudelkopf

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #14 on: August 25, 2015, 01:55:22 AM »
I don't have this problem. I've always been a pretty efficient person, and just get shit done. Or maybe I just schedule less stuff in my life, or only one thing per day anyway.

Moonwaves

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #15 on: August 25, 2015, 04:47:36 AM »
This is a common problem; most people are overly optimistic of their capabilities. I try to estimate the time something will take and multiply by 3.
Yep, multiple of 3 for me as well. I used to beat myself up about it but now I just go with it. Yes, some of that time is a procrastination buffer but not much of it. Once I get to working I can be very efficient but I do seem to have some kind of a mental block (possibly the only area I am hopelessly optimistic in) when it comes to estimating time needed for most tasks.

tomq04

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #16 on: August 25, 2015, 10:28:54 AM »
I'm 27, I am a break taker...but only when I can't do one more brush, or rake, or what have you.  I go and get water and back to it within 5 minutes.

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #17 on: August 25, 2015, 10:32:08 AM »
I've got 2 young kids, and a recently new-to-us house with a long to-do list. I am always underestimating the amount of time a toddler and baby can suck right out of your "productive time".

tomq04

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #18 on: August 25, 2015, 11:28:46 AM »
I've got 2 young kids, and a recently new-to-us house with a long to-do list. I am always underestimating the amount of time a toddler and baby can suck right out of your "productive time".

Me too!!

LennStar

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #19 on: August 25, 2015, 11:36:22 AM »
For me I dont do any big calculations. I think a bit about it, estimate a time and in most cases 2x that time. Works reasonably well and I havent found a better heuristic.
Would probably take me 2 weeks to find it. Means one month, so not worth the time ;)

For the real planning now, it pays to make your project into little parts and put a time on them. That prevents you thinking "oh, i have soooo much time left, I can take a day off".

cjottawa

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #20 on: August 25, 2015, 01:09:46 PM »
It's been my experience you have to have a bit of cynicism to be a good time manager.

This correlates with the idea that it's optimists who are frequently late. http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/07/why-im-always-late.html



I am a bit of a cynic but I try to use that trait for good.

When my friends talk about some "little project" they need help with (say, fixing a deck at their cottage) I'm happy to volunteer but will gently correct them:

"That's not a one hour project - it's an all day project. First, we need to get the lumber, then drive to the cottage, then unpack our lumber and gear - there's half a day gone. Lunch time! We'll start pulling the bad boards in the afternoon, cut the new ones and we might be done installing them before dinner. Let's plan to stay overnight and enjoy the new deck on Sunday, m-kay?"

(to which they laugh, think about it, and agree)

Being a project manager helps too; I break tasks down into components in my head which makes it easier to add up all the time it's going to take.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2015, 01:27:32 PM by cjottawa »

arebelspy

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #21 on: November 07, 2015, 03:16:38 AM »
A quote attributed to Bill Gates says "Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years."

You may want to pad your short term estimates, but make sure you set the bar high on your long term goals.  :)
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choppingwood

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #22 on: November 07, 2015, 11:41:55 AM »
So my advice to you is to prioritize fun stuff over projects and cleaning-   The gutter will get cleaned after the river day ---- or oh shit  -- maybe never.

I totally agree. Though I have probably carried it too far. When I was getting a quote on re-shingling my roof, Roy the Roofer commented that my gutters were an interesting place to grow a garden -- though he supposed the deer didn't get at it that way. I actually hired Jared the Roofer, who didn't comment on the plants in the gutters, but cleaned then out when he finished shingling the roof.

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #23 on: November 07, 2015, 01:45:14 PM »
Sometimes I do make a sweeping ballpark estimate and I'm usually way out. If I'm making an estimate that I actually want to be accurate, though, I ballpark all the little subtasks, add them up and am surprised at how long it will take. For example, on Friday I was trying to work out when to start something if I wanted to finish at 7pm. I was all "yeah, two hours will be fine". Then I paused. This involved an individual task repeated nearly forty times. Even if each took me only five minutes (I reckoned five to ten was more accurate) that would take FOUR HOURS.

If you have a problem estimating, it is because you are thinking about the whole project. You must break it down into tasks and add up the individual times. If it is something you do regularly, time yourself. I know it takes me ten to fifteen minutes to sew on a button because I have timed myself, from getting the needle out to putting it away again. Before I would have said five minutes.

LennStar

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #24 on: November 08, 2015, 01:26:27 AM »
Or just guess the whole and take it by x2.5. That works quite good for me. It mostly is somewhere between 2 and 3 times longer then initially thought, and if it takes even longer then mostly because of things you would not have thought of in detailed planing, too. (The parts for which professional project planers put one or two days for "unforeseen calamities" on top every important step.

Gray Matter

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Re: Time management and estimation
« Reply #25 on: November 08, 2015, 05:09:37 AM »
This is actually a known and studied phenomenon called "planners fallacy."  Interestingly, the tendency to underestimate time to completion only exists when estimating our own work--we are much more accurate at estimating how long something will take someone else to do.  Probably related to that human tendency we're all above average.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy