Thoughts on Mr. Money Mustache?

[Henrryparth]

I have been lurking on FI for a few months now. I recently graduated from college and I have a great job. I am movies download movies at forum  currently saving 52% of my income and I plan to increase this over the next few years. According to Mr. Money Mustache and "math behind early retirement"
I should be able to retire in roughly 15 years. My question is in your opinion, how valid are the assumptions that he makes? Obviously the numbers are estimated and subject to change as my life changes but in general is Mr. Money Mustache and his philosophies a good resource or a bunch of BS?

[lizzzi]

In general a good resource. There is good, basic financial advice and a forum of sensible people living in the real world who can offer a wealth (pun, ha ha) of support and additional information. Some forum advice has worked for me and some has not--I simply have no luck looking for clothing at thrift stores--but some of the most valuable suggestions to me were: 'debt means your hair is on fire'...Aldi... Vanguard... travel on credit card points (only did one trip, but $50 flight to Europe)...and YNAB for a while. (I just do pen and paper now.) Even if you don't embrace everything MMM recommends, it gives you a lot of food for thought and further research. I always liked what he said about Life: "It hits you like a pack of wild butterflies every morning when you wake up. Life is not a contest to see who can accomplish the most. It is simply a series of days where your goal is to wake up, have a great time, and go to bed even happier than when you woke up."

I think MMM is more a road to freedom than a road to wealth...of course, it's both...it's the wealth that buys you the freedom.

[Gin1984]

Well, given we are all here on his forum, most of us must like some of what he says, lol.  If you want people who disagree with him, try the bogelheads.

[matchewed]

Maybe outline which assumptions you are asking about.

[FIRE 20/20]

MMM tends to oversimplify things and deals in generalities.  The point of that article isn't to precisely identify the savings rate required to exactly hit a retirement date.  I think the way to read that article is to focus on the trends; if you don't save you won't be able to retire for a very long time (if ever) and the more you save the faster retirement will arrive.  There's no way to know the future of the markets (or of your savings for that matter) so you shouldn't give your 15 year notice at your job.  15 years is a pretty decent rough estimate for your savings rate, but expect it to change many times as the markets, your spending, and your income change over time. 

For a more detailed look, see the following post:
https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/11/01/shockingly-simple-complicated-random-math-behind-early-retirement/

BigERN generally suffers from a different flaw, so I take everything he does with a grain of salt as well. He tends to undervalue freedom and flexibility, and introduces a lot of unjustified precision into his posts.  Both approaches (BigERN's and MMM's) have a lot of value and have contributed a tremendous amount to the community, just don't take either one as gospel. 

[MrThatsDifferent]

Just keep in mind, it’s not just saving the money, it’s investing it too and not in just anything, predominantly Vanguard index funds. Also, it’s creating your RE budget that you use to multiply by 25 to get your target number. So, you don’t have to trust MMM, trust the numbers. Work out your target, then work out your savings and investments compounded over the years to reach that target. Do the math and see for yourself.

Here’s what I know. This blog changed my life. I wasn’t saving anything really. I wasn’t investing. I wasn’t cutting out material things I don’t need. I wasn’t tracking my spending or my money. He shared with me the ideas for all of that and I’ve watched my net worth grow.

It’s a simple process: earn as much as you can, save as much as you can, reduce expenses as much as you’re comfortable with and invest wisely. That’s it. No rocket science or hidden tricks. And he doesn’t make a dime off of whether you chose or don’t chose to do any of it.

[cats]

I love the MMM philosophy of ruthlessly cutting spending that is not truly adding value to your life (particularly the blog post about how many "conveniences" are not really all that great for you).  I love the "secret" environmentalist agenda.  This aspect of MMM aligns well with my own worldview/life philosophy.

My one big nitpick with MMM is that he did continue to earn money after "retiring" and he's never (as far as I am aware) offered a really concrete "proof" that 100% of the money earned post-retirement has never been needed by the MMM household.  I'm thinking particularly of the Great Recession period, which came not that long after his retirement.  At this time, I believe his wife still had a PT job that covered their health insurance also, which would have allowed their expenses to stay below what they might have projected for a "full" retirement.  Basically, I suspect the fact that he was not 100% "retired" in the conventional sense may have been a bigger contributor to him making it through the recession period than his sunny and optimistic portrayal of early retirement would suggest.  It's pretty clear that MMM is the sort of person who is going to keep himself busy and productive and is therefore likely to keep earning money in some capacity whether he tries to or not.  It has been argued on these forums that many ER types have the same tendencies (though maybe not with outcomes to the tune of "oops, earning $400k/yr from my hobby blog" that MMM has gotten), so perhaps it's not something that needs a huge discussion.  But I do think some acknowledgement of it is necessary for those who are seriously planning on zero work earnings post-retirement.