The general arc of all human history is toward a future that is better than the past. There have been bumps along the way but the overall trend is up. By almost every measure, life is better today than in the past.
Sure. But those "bumps" of failing civilizations are pretty rough times to live, and as periods measured in hundreds of years, aren't something we live through to see the end of. Unless you're planning to live for 1000 years or something.
If you are going to say that things are going to get much worse, you'd need a pretty compelling reason that would counteract this entire arc of history.
Do you think the people living at the end of Rome's time of dominance were excited by the future of the US? Babylon? Pick your empire? We don't live on the "entire arc of history" - we have to eat on at least a weekly basis.
To my mind, you have't presented anything compelling. Maybe something will go wrong in the future. Sure, whatever.
Then feel free to ignore me entirely. :)
But then again, maybe you will have a car accident and die in it today. The only way to hedge against that is to not drive. You might get hit on your ebike too, so best to not ride that either.
Yup. Shit happens. I can, however, optimize towards less shit happening by, say, driving less. And not drinking and riding.
Re: population - I remember when people were saying that 3B was unsustainable. What are we at now, 7B? Haha, that's some funny stuff.
A field of mice living there when a grain truck overturns on icy roads will have many generations of food for growth. It doesn't mean that it's sustainable, it just means that they found something that lets them exceed the natural limitations for a while. Fossil fuels, in the past few hundred years, have done that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Overshoot_DayWe are living well, well beyond what the entire earth is capable of regenerating in a year. So, yes, I do think 7B is unsustainable. As long as we can continue extracting oil and natural gas, that can go on for a while, but it cannot go on indefinitely. Well, I suppose, unless you're sucking down the "but asteroid mining!" kool-aid I hear a lot of, as the US currently has no man-rated lift systems.
I am amazed how you can even get out of the bed in the morning and function at all. Have you considered that you might be clinically depressed? Because you have a pretty bleak outlook on the world and that's maybe something that can be fixed with professional help. I'm not saying that to be snarky. I've been through a pretty bleak period of that myself and its insidious, because overall you feel fine more or less, but it seeps in and makes the world seem hostile and dangerous, much more so than it really is. I got help and I feel much better and more optimistic now. And happier. I don't see how anyone can be happy if they aren't reasonably optimistic....
I'm reasonably certain I'm quite far from clinically depressed. The world is far from bleak (though this past winter with the fog and ice, it's certainly looked it where I live), but I don't feel that the claim, "Exponential growth cannot continue for ever on a finite planet" is particularly pessimistic.
I quite enjoy life, designing for sustainability included, and I see a lot of opportunities going forward. They're just less down the "But all the technology internet cloud VR WOO!" path.
And I'm a paid pessimist, by career. I recognize my bias. It's been serving me well so far.