This quarantine shit’s getting real

[hops]

@hops you're right, so far I have refused surgery. Of course dehydration from a 'mild' case can be dangerous then, even if you don't go into cytokine storm. And so is hypokalemia. I'm sorry to hear you needed surgery, hopefully you're recovering well. I also still get my biologicals every 6 weeks and hospitals are indeed a bit creepy now. In my country medical masks can only be used for Covid-19 patients and severely immunocompromised patients (chemo) as there's still a shortage, so my nurses have to treat me without a mask. That feels pretty scary, even though everyone is checked twice for symptoms and temperature before they enter hospital. I have a minor flare-up in my joints and we are indeed trying to manage that without steroids. I hate steroids anyway so I'm fine with that. I honestly haven't really noticed vitamin D being very effective either, but doctors around here are pretty strict about it.

That does sound scary, particularly with asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread. Every single hospital employee I saw here (of any sort) was masked. Some wore cloth masks, either due to necessity or possibly for comfort. Most wore surgical masks. A few wore N95s they possibly bought themselves. Some nurses had face shields and others didn't. I brought my own masks out of an abundance of caution.

Since discharge I've visited both a hospital-based surgeon's office and a doctor in a freestanding clinic. The protocol for gaining entrance to the buildings (answering a symptom and exposure questionnaire, having your temperature taken, being issued a mask if you can't provide your own) was quick and hassle-free. The feeling of relative security there was striking compared to how I would've felt if plopped in the middle of a grocery store or Walmart, with the proudly unmasked "Muh freedoms!" contingent defiantly jeopardizing everyone else's health.

[dougules]

Here is the CDC data for total US hospitalizations by week.  We are at about 1/3 of where we were at the peak and trending downward.  Obviously curves are local and can vary, but the overall US trend is continuing downward.  The media will cherry pick data to make the overall picture seem dire.  Should have a new week to update on here within the next day to see if the trend is continuing.

The thing is that the graph you're showing is very concerning.  These are exponential curves.  A small difference in the coefficient can mean the difference between a slow exponential decay (exactly like in this graph) and unstable exponential growth.  Basically what that means is that what everybody is doing right now is just barely containing virus.  As people gradually practice less and less social distancing that coefficient slowly rises.  As soon as that coefficient gets over 1, we go back into unstable exponential growth.  If you don't see a strong exponential decay, it means things are barely under control.   

[Wrenchturner]

BEIJING (AP) — China increased testing and lockdown measures in parts of the capital Tuesday to control what appeared to be its largest coronavirus outbreak in more than two months.

The 40 new cases reported Tuesday included 27 in Beijing, bringing the city’s total to 106 since Friday.

Many of the recent cases have been linked to Beijing’s Xinfadi wholesale market and authorities have been testing market workers, anyone who visited the market in the past two weeks and anyone who came into contact with either group.

Fresh meat and seafood in the city and elsewhere in China was also being inspected on the unlikely chance that was how the virus spread.

https://apnews.com/772a8215aef0d656bab9efe29fe90990

[js82]

NY has at least been listing people who died without a positive test as probable COVID death

This is true, and is problematic in itself.  NY also tested patients who were probable Covid 19 cases (symptomatic) with a positive rate in the range of 5-30%.  With this low of a "success" rate, how can we confidently diagnose deaths as "probable" that were never tested?

I wouldn't call it "problematic" at all.  This is how a large fraction of causes of death are decided in normal times - unless there's foul play suspected that triggers an investigation, or obvious causes like visible physical trauma cause of death is often an inference based on symptoms.  Listing someone as killed by Covid when they die of severe respiratory symptoms outside the normal flu season isn't exactly a stretch.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

Note: Not all of these excess deaths are necessarily due to Covid - some are likely patients with other medical issues who died due to the overall strain on the medical system/not getting treatment they needed, as well as a small number of suicides/substance abuse-related deaths - but it's highly likely the real death toll from the virus itself is being undercounted, not overcounted.  And data doesn't suggest that we're overcounting deaths - quite the opposite, in fact.

[Freedomin5]

BEIJING (AP) — China increased testing and lockdown measures in parts of the capital Tuesday to control what appeared to be its largest coronavirus outbreak in more than two months.

The 40 new cases reported Tuesday included 27 in Beijing, bringing the city’s total to 106 since Friday.

Many of the recent cases have been linked to Beijing’s Xinfadi wholesale market and authorities have been testing market workers, anyone who visited the market in the past two weeks and anyone who came into contact with either group.

Fresh meat and seafood in the city and elsewhere in China was also being inspected on the unlikely chance that was how the virus spread.

https://apnews.com/772a8215aef0d656bab9efe29fe90990

Yup, they’ve also re-closed down schools. Gr. 1-3 were slated to open on Monday, but that’s not happening anymore. In Shanghai, many companies have declared Beijing a no-fly zone (as in their employees are not going to Beijing for business trips anymore), and in schools here, any child who has been in Beijing in the last two weeks or who has a family member who lives in the same household who has been in Beijing in the past two weeks is not allowed to come to school for two weeks. Since our school year ends the end of June, essentially the child is not allowed to return to school until the following school year.

[Wrenchturner]

BEIJING (AP) — China increased testing and lockdown measures in parts of the capital Tuesday to control what appeared to be its largest coronavirus outbreak in more than two months.

The 40 new cases reported Tuesday included 27 in Beijing, bringing the city’s total to 106 since Friday.

Many of the recent cases have been linked to Beijing’s Xinfadi wholesale market and authorities have been testing market workers, anyone who visited the market in the past two weeks and anyone who came into contact with either group.

Fresh meat and seafood in the city and elsewhere in China was also being inspected on the unlikely chance that was how the virus spread.

https://apnews.com/772a8215aef0d656bab9efe29fe90990

Yup, they’ve also re-closed down schools. Gr. 1-3 were slated to open on Monday, but that’s not happening anymore. In Shanghai, many companies have declared Beijing a no-fly zone (as in their employees are not going to Beijing for business trips anymore), and in schools here, any child who has been in Beijing in the last two weeks or who has a family member who lives in the same household who has been in Beijing in the past two weeks is not allowed to come to school for two weeks. Since our school year ends the end of June, essentially the child is not allowed to return to school until the following school year.

It ain't over till it's over.  I've been saying this whole time that the COVID situation will take a year or longer to play out.  We're all programmed for a weekly or biweekly news cycle, but this isn't it. 

I sympathize with people who have kids right now. 

[Gremlin]

NY has at least been listing people who died without a positive test as probable COVID death

This is true, and is problematic in itself.  NY also tested patients who were probable Covid 19 cases (symptomatic) with a positive rate in the range of 5-30%.  With this low of a "success" rate, how can we confidently diagnose deaths as "probable" that were never tested?

I wouldn't call it "problematic" at all.  This is how a large fraction of causes of death are decided in normal times - unless there's foul play suspected that triggers an investigation, or obvious causes like visible physical trauma cause of death is often an inference based on symptoms.  Listing someone as killed by Covid when they die of severe respiratory symptoms outside the normal flu season isn't exactly a stretch.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

Note: Not all of these excess deaths are necessarily due to Covid - some are likely patients with other medical issues who died due to the overall strain on the medical system/not getting treatment they needed, as well as a small number of suicides/substance abuse-related deaths - but it's highly likely the real death toll from the virus itself is being undercounted, not overcounted.  And data doesn't suggest that we're overcounting deaths - quite the opposite, in fact.

One of the issues with the 'missing' deaths is the extent to which comorbidities have an impact.  Because COVID-19 is the new disease, there is a lot of focus on the comorbidities that increase the likelihood of dying from CV19.  But in terms of understanding the overall impact on health, we should also be considering what other causes of death that CV19 is a comorbidity for.  In other words, there is a disproportionate focus on:

If I have XXX then it increases the likelihood of me dying from CV19; in comparison to...

If I have CV19 then it increases the likelihood of me dying from YYY.

If CV19 is a comorbidity for other illnesses, then it's a given that there will be a spike in other causes of death when there's a spike in CV19 cases.

[Gremlin]

It's death numbers that matter, Gremlin, not case numbers.

So yesterday saw the highest number of new cases reported worldwide that we've seen to date.  It also saw the highest number of deaths worldwide since the 6th of May.  Trendline for both new cases and daily deaths worldwide is now tracking higher.

[js82]

It's death numbers that matter, Gremlin, not case numbers.

So yesterday saw the highest number of new cases reported worldwide that we've seen to date.  It also saw the highest number of deaths worldwide since the 6th of May.  Trendline for both new cases and daily deaths worldwide is now tracking higher.

For the sake of accuracy, it's worth noting that most of the spike in Yesterday's death total was a blip in India's reported deaths, from ~400/day to ~2000.  This looks like an artifact of when the deaths were reported rather than an actual spike in deaths - India's cases are climbing, but this doesn't fit "the curve".  Take that out, and the global trend over the past few weeks has been roughly flat, with declines in the US and Europe offset by increases in Central/South America.

[HBFIRE]

Here is the CDC data for total US hospitalizations by week. 

updated.  lowest in 3 months.  25% of peak levels.

[lhamo]

Here is the CDC data for total US hospitalizations by week. 

updated.  lowest in 3 months.  25% of peak levels.

But then read the disclaimer:

"The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) conducts population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalizations in children (persons younger than 18 years) and adults. The current network covers nearly 100 counties in the 10 Emerging Infections Program (EIP) states (CA, CO, CT, GA, MD, MN, NM, NY, OR, and TN) and four additional states through the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Project (IA, MI, OH, and UT). The network represents approximately 10% of US population (~32 million people)."

Lab confirmed positives among hospitalized patients only in 100 counties in 14 states.

Are there trends in these data?  Yes.  Are those trends representative of what is going on in the entire country?  Not necessarily.

[HBFIRE]

Lab confirmed positives among hospitalized patients only in 100 counties in 14 states.

Are there trends in these data?  Yes.  Are those trends representative of what is going on in the entire country?  Not necessarily.

This is a great point.  Important to watch other data trends as well since this one is not comprehensive.  Does anyone know of any source that compiles all US hospitalization data?  I couldn't find anything that is comprehensive.

Here is the death trend data for the US below. It was the lowest recorded week in 3 months:

[former player]

This analysis from the BBC is less encouraging for the USA

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53088354

The data comes from the Covid Tracking Project at The Atlantic.

[ixtap]

I can't even find a currently hospitalized number for my local area, only total, which tells me nothing.

[ixtap]

I can't even find a currently hospitalized number for my local area, only total, which tells me nothing.

I live in orange county calif (same as @HBFIRE ) and we have a pretty good website thru our counties healthcare agency. List everything from daily new cases, testing, deaths, hospitalizations, people in ICU, # of deaths or cases by age, in nursing homes, jails, etc. With graphs near the bottom of the page. It has shown both increases in cases (maybe due to greater testing), deaths and hospitalization.
https://occovid19.ochealthinfo.com/coronavirus-in-oc

Nice. I am due south of you and our county site is not as clear.

[scottish]

Has anyone discovered what causes the weekly cycle in US cases?

[ixtap]

Has anyone discovered what causes the weekly cycle in US cases?

It seems to be fewer tests getting processed on weekends, than a catch up. The world cases are on a similar cycle. Somehow, I doubt the C takes Sundays off, but they are consistently lower, even for reporting of deaths.

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

Has anyone discovered what causes the weekly cycle in US cases?

Having worked in multiple hospitals, I would guess that Sundays have many less admin staff rostered, and admin staff are the ones reporting the numbers. The numbers are only lower because fewer hospitals are reporting on a Sunday. Then as the week goes on, the cases rise because the Monday/Tuesday hell is over and tasks like reporting get to the top of the priority list!

[HBFIRE]

I can't even find a currently hospitalized number for my local area, only total, which tells me nothing.

I live in orange county calif (same as @HBFIRE ) and we have a pretty good website thru our counties healthcare agency. List everything from daily new cases, testing, deaths, hospitalizations, people in ICU, # of deaths or cases by age, in nursing homes, jails, race, gender, by city, etc. With graphs near the bottom of the page. It has shown both increases in cases (maybe due to greater testing), deaths and hospitalization.
https://occovid19.ochealthinfo.com/coronavirus-in-oc

This is true.  We are still below the threshold required by the state to enter the next stage of opening.

[American GenX]

And the south and west,  the cases are increasing, and it's affecting more younger people now.

[horsepoor]

This thread has been a fascinating read, in retrospect of what we've been through since it was started.

My husband and I are in the crowd that have not been heavily affected by stay at home orders.  We have a big house on a large lot, and no kids.  We've both been teleworking since March.  The biggest change for him as a dedicated gym-goer, is having to work out at home.  In the longer term, he referees high school football, and is fretting about the powers that be in that world making unwise decisions to continue HS sports in the fall, and fellow officials being dumbasses about the precautions that should be taken if sports do move forward.

For me, I miss going to the gym as well, but my main activities are horse-related, as well as running and gardening, so not much has changed.  We minimize shopping trips and wear masks when we go out.  We did have tickets for a few concerts from July through October that we were really looking forward to, and of course those are postponed/canceled.  Horse shows were canceled this spring, but they are starting to ramp back up; that doesn't really impact my plans, but I'm hoping that it doesn't touch off Covid spread in the horse community, which could result in barns needing to be closed down.

Husband will probably be asked to return to his office soon, though he is trying to put it off until after he visits his family in California over 4th of July, and my dad visits shortly after that.  I just started a new job with a Denver-based team, so working remotely instead of going into my old office (same organization as my previous job) is just as effective and I don't have to deal with all the social distancing and health check stations that are entailed with going to the office currently.

And the south and west,  the cases are increasing, and it's affecting more younger people now.

That is just what I was noticing, delving more into our state data (Idaho).  We have about 4,000 cases statewide, and looking at demographics, the 20-29 age group has surged, with 25% of the cases.  It's hard to say if this is due to their social behavior, or if this age group is more likely to be working in the service industry, or a combination of both.  While we've had an uptick in positive cases as our state re-opens, it looks like that might be related to testing numbers.  However, we did get a surge in our county this week, and I wonder if it has to do with restaurants and bars opening back up.  Also, there has been a surge in the Magic Valley counties, which is more rural, but still one of the population centers for the state.  I think there was a bit of a feeling of insulation there, but OTOH, there are several food processing plants out there, and I wouldn't be surprised if they're hotspots.  A few weeks ago I went to eastern Idaho for a few days for work.  I brought all my own food and declined hotel house keeping, and only worked with people out in the field.  I did go for a run on the greenbelt after work, and it seemed business as usual over there, so I won't be surprised if that area gets hit soon too.

There is also a hotspot in rural eastern Oregon, linked to a small-town church. https://www.lagrandeobserver.com/coronavirus/union-county-covid-19-testing-underway-as-case-total-tops-250/article_be789bec-b256-11ea-bdf2-23540f50a7b4.html  This can really flare quickly in that situation, it seems.  Aren't any churches holding outdoor services, given the time of year?  I'm expecting things to get worse again in the fall when outdoor activities become less appealing.

[mm1970]

And the south and west,  the cases are increasing, and it's affecting more younger people now.

Yep

[SisterX]

What I've been finding the most interesting lately is the research that we might not (if these studies bear out, almost certainly don't) produce antibodies long-term. There's this one, about the USS Theodore Roosevelt. Concerning because it's a group of young and otherwise healthy people--otherwise they wouldn't be able to be in the military. Just 60% of those with confirmed cases showed antibodies after a couple of months.

Then there are a couple of studies out of Wuhan that have similar findings. One of the studies cited has yet to be peer-reviewed and published, but the fact that there are now quite a few (these are just the most recent) studies suggesting we might not have long-term immunity to this...well.

This article I think talks about one of the studies out of Wuhan previously mentioned. The study was published in the journal Nature Medicine. Anyway, the article points out that the study found 2/3 of asymptomatic patients had lung damage. So even though they couldn't feel it, didn't realize they were sick, they will have long-term, likely permanent, lung damage.

Arizona also passed 50,000 cases. My state of WA has had a combined total of less than 29,000 cases and we're still under lockdown. Arizona, what are you doing? Same question to Texas and Florida. What the hell, guys?

For the people on here who like to say cases are increasing because of increased testing, not because of increased cases, guess again.

Last, here's an article about trying to get back-testing for potential cases in CA all the way to the beginning of the year. Coroners and doctors had a bunch of mysterious cases (including pediatric deaths) when testing was still incredibly limited, but they suspect that the first confirmed death was far from the first actual death in the state. Which brings up more questions about when, exactly, it actually started circulating?

[talltexan]

Lab confirmed positives among hospitalized patients only in 100 counties in 14 states.

Are there trends in these data?  Yes.  Are those trends representative of what is going on in the entire country?  Not necessarily.

This is a great point.  Important to watch other data trends as well since this one is not comprehensive.  Does anyone know of any source that compiles all US hospitalization data?  I couldn't find anything that is comprehensive.

Here is the death trend data for the US below. It was the lowest recorded week in 3 months:

Indeed I think it's really important to remember that these hospital capacity measures are ultimately local. Open ventillators in NY won't help my elderly parents who are in Hays County, Texas. I'm nervously watching the Texas numbers increase as I simultaneously detect very little alarm among anyone who lives there.

[I'm a red panda]

What I've been finding the most interesting lately is the research that we might not (if these studies bear out, almost certainly don't) produce antibodies long-term. There's this one, about the USS Theodore Roosevelt. Concerning because it's a group of young and otherwise healthy people--otherwise they wouldn't be able to be in the military. Just 60% of those with confirmed cases showed antibodies after a couple of months.

Then there are a couple of studies out of Wuhan that have similar findings. One of the studies cited has yet to be peer-reviewed and published, but the fact that there are now quite a few (these are just the most recent) studies suggesting we might not have long-term immunity to this...well.

This article I think talks about one of the studies out of Wuhan previously mentioned. The study was published in the journal Nature Medicine. Anyway, the article points out that the study found 2/3 of asymptomatic patients had lung damage. So even though they couldn't feel it, didn't realize they were sick, they will have long-term, likely permanent, lung damage.

Arizona also passed 50,000 cases. My state of WA has had a combined total of less than 29,000 cases and we're still under lockdown. Arizona, what are you doing? Same question to Texas and Florida. What the hell, guys?

For the people on here who like to say cases are increasing because of increased testing, not because of increased cases, guess again.

Last, here's an article about trying to get back-testing for potential cases in CA all the way to the beginning of the year. Coroners and doctors had a bunch of mysterious cases (including pediatric deaths) when testing was still incredibly limited, but they suspect that the first confirmed death was far from the first actual death in the state. Which brings up more questions about when, exactly, it actually started circulating?

This is so worrisome, since so many people are pinning major hopes on a vaccine.  It might be quite awhile before they figure out how to do that if we don't produce antibodies long term. 

Eradication, or even control, is going to be impossible if people don't change their behavior, and in the US, people don't seem to want to.

[RetiredAt63]

Eradication, or even control, is going to be impossible if people don't change their behavior, and in the US, people don't seem to want to.

I'm not hoping for a vaccine that lasts years, as MMR does.  I just hope for one that works for more than a year, so I can get my annual Covid shot just like I get my annual flu shot.

Of course a vaccine that is good for 5 or 10 years would be so much better, but we already deal with one disease (flu) that requires an annual vaccine.

[SisterX]

Eradication, or even control, is going to be impossible if people don't change their behavior, and in the US, people don't seem to want to.

I'm not hoping for a vaccine that lasts years, as MMR does.  I just hope for one that works for more than a year, so I can get my annual Covid shot just like I get my annual flu shot.

Of course a vaccine that is good for 5 or 10 years would be so much better, but we already deal with one disease (flu) that requires an annual vaccine.

The problem here is that these people showed a lack of antibodies within *months*. Are we going to get quarterly COVID vaccines? I mean, if we have to I'm sure we'll adapt to that. But what if it is like the flu in that we have multiple strains (which, actually, we've already got) and antibodies for one strain don't protect against another strain? Are we going to go with the flu shot strategy then--give everyone COVID shots for what they think will be the most prevalent strain for the next few months and then just hope they're right?

This is a quagmire and the only good answer is that we should have locked down in the beginning for as long as it took to get things as completely under control as humanly possible. This "herd immunity" idea is proving to be bullshit even more as time goes on and we learn more.

[PDXTabs]

The problem here is that these people showed a lack of antibodies within *months*. Are we going to get quarterly COVID vaccines?

Dengue Fever is like that, where you can get it over and over again, but there is still a vaccine. Of course, it's only 76% effective and has such bad antibody-dependent enhancement that they will only give you the vaccine after you have already had the disease. And that's how millions of people live their lives.

[Bloop Bloop]

It's death numbers that matter, Gremlin, not case numbers.

So yesterday saw the highest number of new cases reported worldwide that we've seen to date.  It also saw the highest number of deaths worldwide since the 6th of May.  Trendline for both new cases and daily deaths worldwide is now tracking higher.

For the sake of accuracy, it's worth noting that most of the spike in Yesterday's death total was a blip in India's reported deaths, from ~400/day to ~2000.  This looks like an artifact of when the deaths were reported rather than an actual spike in deaths - India's cases are climbing, but this doesn't fit "the curve".  Take that out, and the global trend over the past few weeks has been roughly flat, with declines in the US and Europe offset by increases in Central/South America.

Rolling waves of the virus hitting different regions at different times can mean that you have steady infection/death numbers for quite a while - this does not mean that for any given geographic location, the virus peaks and then subsides over time. As js82 correctly pointed out.

US deaths are easing. Australian deaths have stopped. UK deaths are easing. Etc.

In a month's time India's deaths will ease.

[RetiredAt63]

Eradication, or even control, is going to be impossible if people don't change their behavior, and in the US, people don't seem to want to.

I'm not hoping for a vaccine that lasts years, as MMR does.  I just hope for one that works for more than a year, so I can get my annual Covid shot just like I get my annual flu shot.

Of course a vaccine that is good for 5 or 10 years would be so much better, but we already deal with one disease (flu) that requires an annual vaccine.

The problem here is that these people showed a lack of antibodies within *months*. Are we going to get quarterly COVID vaccines? I mean, if we have to I'm sure we'll adapt to that. But what if it is like the flu in that we have multiple strains (which, actually, we've already got) and antibodies for one strain don't protect against another strain? Are we going to go with the flu shot strategy then--give everyone COVID shots for what they think will be the most prevalent strain for the next few months and then just hope they're right?

This is a quagmire and the only good answer is that we should have locked down in the beginning for as long as it took to get things as completely under control as humanly possible. This "herd immunity" idea is proving to be bullshit even more as time goes on and we learn more.

This is why I used "hope".  If we have to get one two or three times a year that will be a logistic mess.  Or we get vaccinated before travel to areas that have higher levels of infection, just like we do now if we are travelling to areas with other diseases (I.e. tropical diseases for those of us not normally exposed to them).

Lockdowns only work well as long as movement is minimized.  I don't see them as long term solutions.  Changes in social behavior and better disease management are what we have to learn.

[Captain Cactus]

Yah my brother and sister in law, and their kids, are gallivanting around acting like everything is fine, not taking precautions, going on vacation, going to the bar, having their kids hang out with other kids, going places in the car with their kids and their friends.  Worst part?  Both of them work in nursing homes.  Totally irresponsible people...and they'll probably get through this physically unscathed...

And me? I've been staying home, laying low, following all of the precautions and I'll probably get it the first time I go to the grocery store because I have been "blessed" with a nasty autoimmune condition!

Want another fun fact?  Nursing home administrators did not want to test their employees (nurses, aides that work multiple jobs, etc...) because if they DID test, and they WERE positive then they couldn't come to work!  "If we test everyone that works in our homes we won't have anyone to come in and take care of the residents!".  -A real quote from a nursing home administrator. 

Irresponsible. 

[SisterX]

The problem here is that these people showed a lack of antibodies within *months*. Are we going to get quarterly COVID vaccines?

Dengue Fever is like that, where you can get it over and over again, but there is still a vaccine. Of course, it's only 76% effective and has such bad antibody-dependent enhancement that they will only give you the vaccine after you have already had the disease. And that's how millions of people live their lives.

You left out the part where I said, "if we have to, I guess we'll adapt to that." I didn't rule it out. I just wanted to point out that, as RetiredAt63 put it, it would be a logistical nightmare. Particularly within the U.S. healthcare system as it currently is. Most people would not be able to get it, or get it as often as needed, and so we would basically just be living with this endemic horrible illness. Beyond all of the health implications, since this is a money blog, what on earth would that do to our economy? That seems like a collapse situation to me. There's no way our system could handle people being out of work that long at random times during outbreaks, the number of hospitalizations, the rolling lockdowns, and the medical bills. We just couldn't.

Going back to my point that we should have done a nation-wide lockdown early on, with heroic measures to keep people propped up (delivering food, stimulus checks, rent and mortgage moratoriums, debt forgiveness, etc.) for the two months it would take. But since we didn't do that before we should do it now, only this time it's going to be a lot more painful precisely because we didn't do it earlier. And no matter what, even if we locked down while I was typing this, our deaths would be a minimum of 123,223.

Instead we're choosing fuck-all and, if not precisely a collapse scenario, then at least one where the "greatest and best nation on earth" is severely diminished on the world stage. Between Trump and now this, no one is looking to us as leaders.

[HBFIRE]

Going back to my point that we should have done a nation-wide lockdown early on, with heroic measures to keep people propped up (delivering food, stimulus checks, rent and mortgage moratoriums, debt forgiveness, etc.) for the two months it would take. But since we didn't do that before we should do it now, only this time it's going to be a lot more painful precisely because we didn't do it earlier.

Will thankfully never happen, and it shouldn't.  The costs involved would be astronomical.  Real economic devastation and the long term financial/health costs would be incalculable.  The costs would last at least a generation.

[SisterX]

Going back to my point that we should have done a nation-wide lockdown early on, with heroic measures to keep people propped up (delivering food, stimulus checks, rent and mortgage moratoriums, debt forgiveness, etc.) for the two months it would take. But since we didn't do that before we should do it now, only this time it's going to be a lot more painful precisely because we didn't do it earlier.

Will thankfully never happen, and it shouldn't.  The costs involved would be astronomical.  Real economic devastation and the long term financial/health costs would be incalculable.  The costs would last at least a generation.

Because what's happening now isn't and won't? Because giving money essentially free to corporations through QE, bailouts, and nearly interest-free loans while letting average people go hungry (see: the crazy numbers of people relying on food banks) is a good solution?

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

Going back to my point that we should have done a nation-wide lockdown early on, with heroic measures to keep people propped up (delivering food, stimulus checks, rent and mortgage moratoriums, debt forgiveness, etc.) for the two months it would take. But since we didn't do that before we should do it now, only this time it's going to be a lot more painful precisely because we didn't do it earlier.

Will thankfully never happen, and it shouldn't.  The costs involved would be astronomical.  Real economic devastation and the long term financial/health costs would be incalculable.  The costs would last at least a generation.

Yeah, hundreds or thousands of people dead will be much easier to deal with.

[Michael in ABQ]

The problem here is that these people showed a lack of antibodies within *months*. Are we going to get quarterly COVID vaccines?

Dengue Fever is like that, where you can get it over and over again, but there is still a vaccine. Of course, it's only 76% effective and has such bad antibody-dependent enhancement that they will only give you the vaccine after you have already had the disease. And that's how millions of people live their lives.

Going back to my point that we should have done a nation-wide lockdown early on, with heroic measures to keep people propped up (delivering food, stimulus checks, rent and mortgage moratoriums, debt forgiveness, etc.) for the two months it would take. But since we didn't do that before we should do it now, only this time it's going to be a lot more painful precisely because we didn't do it earlier. And no matter what, even if we locked down while I was typing this, our deaths would be a minimum of 123,223.

A total lockdown would never have been 100% effective in the U.S. People still need to work at power plants, keep clean water flowing, keep our food distribution system operating, etc. Millions would still have to be working outside their home unless we're all going to sit in the dark drinking water we saved up in our bathtubs while slowly starving to death and dying from other medical issues. With so many asymptomatic cases and a relatively long infectious period this is a very difficult disease to contain. Even China which was willing to go much further to lock things down ultimately is still dealing with cases continuing to pop up.

Yes we could have done better. But I don't think it was ever realistic to expect total elimination in a country as large and connected to the rest of the world as the U.S. Especially not when the virus may have been circulating earlier than we though in the U.S. potentially back in December, certainly by January.

[PDXTabs]

Because what's happening now isn't and won't? Because giving money essentially free to corporations through QE, bailouts, and nearly interest-free loans while letting average people go hungry (see: the crazy numbers of people relying on food banks) is a good solution?

You need supply chains for people to eat. You need supply chains to make PPE. You need supply chains to make ventilators. You need supply chains to maintain transit.

I'm not convinced of your total lockdown plan.

[deborah]

Depends on what you call total lockdown. Clearly the nations that have had total lockdown have also had supply chains and health care still running.

[Bloop Bloop]

Going back to my point that we should have done a nation-wide lockdown early on, with heroic measures to keep people propped up (delivering food, stimulus checks, rent and mortgage moratoriums, debt forgiveness, etc.) for the two months it would take. But since we didn't do that before we should do it now, only this time it's going to be a lot more painful precisely because we didn't do it earlier.

Will thankfully never happen, and it shouldn't.  The costs involved would be astronomical.  Real economic devastation and the long term financial/health costs would be incalculable.  The costs would last at least a generation.

Yeah, hundreds or thousands of people dead will be much easier to deal with.

A rent and mortgage moratorium for 300+ million people would cost, what, trillions of dollars? Leading to all sorts of economic effects and inflation, and economic devastation from lost industry. You do have to do the sums and sort out the QALY figures for the deaths that have occurred.

[PDXTabs]

Depends on what you call total lockdown. Clearly the nations that have had total lockdown have also had supply chains and health care still running.

And how many have managed to eliminate SARS-COV-2 entirely? Two? And if they open up trade or travel they'll get it again. But yes, if you are an island this might work.

[deborah]

24 but most are small. Laos is amazing.

[Zamboni]

I'm at a loss at this point. Cases and deaths where I live are now surging. The curve is quite steeply going up.

There is a mandatory mask order now in place, but there is no enforcement and apparently people don't give a shit about themselves or each other, so it is just being ignored. Took a car for the required annual inspection to our local shop and I was the only one wearing a mask. The ladies who work in their indoor office and interact with the public all day inside a building? No masks. Cashiers at the grocery had masks pulled down around their neck instead of over their mouths. Several people stocking the shelves at the grocery store did not have masks at all.

So, I guess the reports above about nursing homes and the workers there don't surprise me at all. We have big brains, but, as a species, we are assholes.

Oh, and college football is ramping back up! Yay? Boots on the ground say Clemson football has now tested it's players 3 times each. First round revealed three positives. Two weeks later they are up to 23 players positive and 5 coaches (that was the report to the media), but the player we know there said there are already more cases than that. Bama reportedly has 40 players who are now positive. Roll Tide!

The only good news about this is that my son has realized that all these big football factories who are recruiting him just treat their players like cattle. He got super duper sick for 3 weeks in March, sickest I've ever seen anyone with coughing and breathing problems and fever, and his HS coach called him constantly to harass him about missing workouts. Seriously, I was worried he could die and his asshole coach was on speakerphone questioning his desire to play football. Coach then insisted that we come in to talk with him in person so I went in by myself and told him "what the fuck is wrong with you?!" More politely than that, of course, but hopefully he got the message. School shut down the next week. So now son is listening much more seriously to the Ivy league coaches that he was dismissing before. Every cloud has a silver lining.

[Sugaree]

I'm at a loss at this point. Cases and deaths where I live are now surging. The curve is quite steeply going up.

There is a mandatory mask order now in place, but there is no enforcement and apparently people don't give a shit about themselves or each other, so it is just being ignored. Took a car for the required annual inspection to our local shop and I was the only one wearing a mask. The ladies who work in their indoor office and interact with the public all day inside a building? No masks. Cashiers at the grocery had masks pulled down around their neck instead of over their mouths. Several people stocking the shelves at the grocery store did not have masks at all.

So, I guess the reports above about nursing homes and the workers there don't surprise me at all. We have big brains, but, as a species, we are assholes.

Oh, and college football is ramping back up! Yay? Boots on the ground say Clemson football has now tested it's players 3 times each. First round revealed three positives. Two weeks later they are up to 23 players positive and 5 coaches (that was the report to the media), but the player we know there said there are already more cases than that. Bama reportedly has 40 players who are now positive. Roll Tide!

The only good news about this is that my son has realized that all these big football factories who are recruiting him just treat their players like cattle. He got super duper sick for 3 weeks in March, sickest I've ever seen anyone with coughing and breathing problems and fever, and his HS coach called him constantly to harass him about missing workouts. Seriously, I was worried he could die and his asshole coach was on speakerphone questioning his desire to play football. Coach then insisted that we come in to talk with him in person so I went in by myself and told him "what the fuck is wrong with you?!" More politely than that, of course, but hopefully he got the message. School shut down the next week. So now son is listening much more seriously to the Ivy league coaches that he was dismissing before. Every cloud has a silver lining.

In the most Alabama press conference ever, Gov. MeeMaw talked about saving the football and then quoted a bible verse.  And no one listened.  Maybe if Saban came out and told everyone to wear masks then they would listen.  The mayor of Tuscaloosa came out recently and said that the city absolutely can't survive the loss of a football season. 


 

[chemistk]

A total/complete US lockdown would never have worked for the exact reason we saw TP, Hand Sanitizer, Disinfectant, and Canned GOod shortages - the supply chains, for better or worse, are not equipped to handle such a massive shift in consumer demand.

Most major food and consumer product companies operate under Lean principles, especially 'Just-in-time' manufacturing - companies only make exactly the amount of things that they expect to be demanded by consumers, when the consumers are expected to demand them.

But it's not just food companies or TP manufacturers, it's anything that relies on more than one intermediary between the raw material (even vegetables/fruits) and the consumer. You can't suddenly just wash harvest, wash, sort, and package 10x the amount of apples required to supply the nation for 2 months' lockdown and then close the apple orchards, sorting facilities, and warehouses!

There was a point in history where companies would keep a much bigger inventory buffer because we never had anything like predictive analytics or real time consumer trend data. Companies could also start up a production run much faster and turn product around to the consumer much sooner than now - there were hardly the same number of regulations and standards that had to be adhered to decades ago. Those same standards and regulations are what have driven down foodborne illness and faulty products to incredibly low numbers today.

We couldn't shut down the country, because the simple fact is that we would run out of food. You could probably park RV's outside every power plant, water treatment facility, etc. and have crews of essential workers living onsite. You could probably have nurses and doctors live in hotels for 2 months that are carefully monitored and cleaned. But even if you were to identify a list of all the food and consumer product manufacturers, the list of people that are absolutely essential to keeping those supply chains running is in the millions. You'll need the line worker, quality supervisor, mechanic, janitor, shift lead, lab tech, truck driver, warehouse picker, etc. etc.  All those people will need gas, and food, and the list just balloons. And that's just food! The same thing goes for medial supplies, drugs, consumer products, etc. etc.

Maybe something would change in the future. Maybe we'll figure out a way to have strategic stockpiles of MRE's or keep more canned goods in warehouses, or how to keep supply chains running with a skeleton crew and keep those people away from the rest of a population if/when another Covid rears its head. But to say "We should have shut down the country" is a very naive and uninformed post-mortem.

[bigblock440]

Going back to my point that we should have done a nation-wide lockdown early on, with heroic measures to keep people propped up (delivering food, stimulus checks, rent and mortgage moratoriums, debt forgiveness, etc.) for the two months it would take. But since we didn't do that before we should do it now, only this time it's going to be a lot more painful precisely because we didn't do it earlier.

Will thankfully never happen, and it shouldn't.  The costs involved would be astronomical.  Real economic devastation and the long term financial/health costs would be incalculable.  The costs would last at least a generation.

Because what's happening now isn't and won't? Because giving money essentially free to corporations through QE, bailouts, and nearly interest-free loans while letting average people go hungry (see: the crazy numbers of people relying on food banks) is a good solution?

That tends to be an affect of shutting down millions of workplaces putting those people out of work.  Suicides and domestic violence also tend to increase.  A nationwide lockdown would not make that any better.  The time to lock down was in January, when they could have been very localized, but we were too busy with impeachment.  It's endemic now.

[fuzzy math]

A total/complete US lockdown would never have worked for the exact reason we saw TP, Hand Sanitizer, Disinfectant, and Canned GOod shortages - the supply chains, for better or worse, are not equipped to handle such a massive shift in consumer demand.

Most major food and consumer product companies operate under Lean principles, especially 'Just-in-time' manufacturing - companies only make exactly the amount of things that they expect to be demanded by consumers, when the consumers are expected to demand them.

But it's not just food companies or TP manufacturers, it's anything that relies on more than one intermediary between the raw material (even vegetables/fruits) and the consumer. You can't suddenly just wash harvest, wash, sort, and package 10x the amount of apples required to supply the nation for 2 months' lockdown and then close the apple orchards, sorting facilities, and warehouses!

There was a point in history where companies would keep a much bigger inventory buffer because we never had anything like predictive analytics or real time consumer trend data. Companies could also start up a production run much faster and turn product around to the consumer much sooner than now - there were hardly the same number of regulations and standards that had to be adhered to decades ago. Those same standards and regulations are what have driven down foodborne illness and faulty products to incredibly low numbers today.

We couldn't shut down the country, because the simple fact is that we would run out of food. You could probably park RV's outside every power plant, water treatment facility, etc. and have crews of essential workers living onsite. You could probably have nurses and doctors live in hotels for 2 months that are carefully monitored and cleaned. But even if you were to identify a list of all the food and consumer product manufacturers, the list of people that are absolutely essential to keeping those supply chains running is in the millions. You'll need the line worker, quality supervisor, mechanic, janitor, shift lead, lab tech, truck driver, warehouse picker, etc. etc.  All those people will need gas, and food, and the list just balloons. And that's just food! The same thing goes for medial supplies, drugs, consumer products, etc. etc.

Maybe something would change in the future. Maybe we'll figure out a way to have strategic stockpiles of MRE's or keep more canned goods in warehouses, or how to keep supply chains running with a skeleton crew and keep those people away from the rest of a population if/when another Covid rears its head. But to say "We should have shut down the country" is a very naive and uninformed post-mortem.

THIS!

We gave our best shot at it for 2 months, and at some point we had to begin manufacturing, seeing, doing business, trading, building treating and whatever else was on pause. Because we are not a communist country we can't just suspend all laws and detain people for going outside on a federal level. I dislike Trump, but people are blaming him for lacking the federal power to mandate things that can only be given as guidelines at the state, county or local level. Unlike in China where they only allowed 1 person out of the house every 3-4 days for food under threat of being arrested (or possibly just disappearing). The same China that welded people's apartment complex doors shut once too many people in the complex had COVID. People on this forum banging on about how that would have been better might suddenly have found themselves disagreeing once their designated day to go to the grocery store or the pharmacy didn't get them their lifesaving supplies or their door got welded shut. Or imagine having no food in any of the stores and then waiting in a 600 person long line to receive rice. It happened there. People in the US waited in long lines at the food bank (due to lack of $$), but there was still food because the supply chains were only somewhat messed up. In China where the roads were barricaded there was very little availability for food to come inside Wuhan.

So China did all that, squashed the curve, waited until it was safe to re-open and STILL are having major hotspot problems in other cities months later. Personally I'll take the world where I was allowed to leave my home.

Also, as a nation we employ workers, we don't own them. We can't compel our essential workers to live in hotels and not expect them to quit. Those nursing home workers make $12 an hour and wipe grandma's drool and ass. They get frequent injuries from lifting patients who are bedridden. But yes, lets harass them for not being mandated to give up their lives because we want the security of someone else taking care of our elderly 24/7 because "its just too hard". But don't pay them more.

The people talking about "how things should be" (without doing the realistic post mortems you mentioned Chemistk) appear to be stuck in a mindset of just expecting things to be better by wishing for them. If that had worked we would have wished the virus away long before it reached this level. Wishes don't do much. Being realistic about science, economics, laws and policy is much more helpful but those sitting in their homes wringing their hands don't want to be practical. Its easier just to blame people. It makes people think they have more power than they do against the virus.

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

Going back to my point that we should have done a nation-wide lockdown early on, with heroic measures to keep people propped up (delivering food, stimulus checks, rent and mortgage moratoriums, debt forgiveness, etc.) for the two months it would take. But since we didn't do that before we should do it now, only this time it's going to be a lot more painful precisely because we didn't do it earlier.

Will thankfully never happen, and it shouldn't.  The costs involved would be astronomical.  Real economic devastation and the long term financial/health costs would be incalculable.  The costs would last at least a generation.

Yeah, hundreds or thousands of people dead will be much easier to deal with.

A rent and mortgage moratorium for 300+ million people would cost, what, trillions of dollars? Leading to all sorts of economic effects and inflation, and economic devastation from lost industry. You do have to do the sums and sort out the QALY figures for the deaths that have occurred.

You come across as the kind of guy who'd be touting the economic benefits of the Holocaust if we were in the 1930s.

[HBFIRE]

Personally I'll take the world where I was allowed to leave my home.

Being realistic about science, economics, laws and policy is much more helpful but those sitting in their homes wringing their hands don't want to be practical. Its easier just to blame people. It makes people think they have more power than they do against the virus.

Spot on.  Wish I could "like" this post.

[deborah]

Figures are out from the IMF today https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020 of what they predict as the fall out. It's interesting that the countries who hit the lockdown hard appear to be the ones that are expected to have LESS effects on their economy in the coming couple of years.

[BNgarden]

We gave our best shot at it for 2 months, and at some point we had to begin manufacturing, seeing, doing business, trading, building treating and whatever else was on pause.

I'm sorry that was your 'best shot'. 

Quite a few countries around the world seem to have done considerably better by a long shot.  And their supposed 'shutdowns' weren't as extensive as China's.

This is a shitshow for so very many nations and people, but for the 'leader of the free world' (country, not Pres) there are other/ additional things that could have been done (and still could be), and done better, and throwing up your hands / proclaiming 'gave it our best shot' is just risible (in a tragic, non-funny way).

ETA: Sorry for the snark, especially given that so many are suffering, but I'm beyond frustrated that so much disinformation and so many bad faith arguments are being employed in so many places.