The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck

[MilesTeg]

Most people are resistant to change, it's in our nature. Yet suburbanites were the first and remain the largest demographic buying EV cars so it's reasonable to assume they will be that for any type of EV. Especially because they have the money and typically do no have the extreme use cases that EV trucks will not handle anytime soon (e.g. towing 20-30k in a goosneck across country)

Again, no disagreement. I'm all for solving their truck use case first, and worrying about towing a boat coast to coast later. Their use case is infinitely easier to solve, removes most CO2, and they are happy to pay enough for bells and whistles to cover the higher cost of battery.

Apparently, good folks at Autolist knew what we were discussing, and came up with a survey of ~1,000 people currently shopping for a truck. As some here predicted, people already owning a truck were noticeably cooler to Tesla and warmer to an electric Ford/GM. First time truck buyers were about evenly split. Al in all, 20% would buy Cybertruck - which, if it stands, would be an insane success for Tesla.

https://www.autolist.com/news-and-analysis/survey-electric-pickups-GM-ford-tesla-rivian

h/t Cleantechnica

“This shows us what’s drawing people to the Tesla truck,” Disher said. “It’s not outright practicality, efficiency, towing or hauling capabilities as is generally the case with pickups. Fans of this truck like it for its promised performance first.”

This is a demographic of people are going to be sorely disappointed in the cybertruck. The high end model might be able to go fast in a straight line, but it's still going to be a 7,000lb+, long wheelbase, land yacht so it will handle about as well as a bathtub on wheels, hah. Granted, better than a IC bathtub due to the (probably) lower center of gravity but still a bathtub. It ain't going to actually perform like a sports car.

[PathtoFIRE]

It ain't going to actually perform like a sports car.

But can you run over right turn only signs while making a left across traffic that has a green light? If so, I'm in!

[ysette9]

The trucks I pass on a daily basis fall into two categories: real truck-y things and as someone above said, cosplay construction worker.

The real trucks are mostly all old, weather beaten, and filled to their teeth with plant debris or junk being hauled to the dump or gardening equipment.

The play trucks are new and clean and tricked out and usually are holding stuff equal in volume to what I can fit in my bike trailer. Ironically enough, they are usually driven by real construction workers who use them as single occupancy commuter vehicles to get to suburban or urban construction sites where they are parked on pavement.

Im sure there is a niche where the Tesla truck will fit in for those who drive a truck for signaling rather than practicality.

[FINate]

Most people are resistant to change, it's in our nature. Yet suburbanites were the first and remain the largest demographic buying EV cars so it's reasonable to assume they will be that for any type of EV. Especially because they have the money and typically do no have the extreme use cases that EV trucks will not handle anytime soon (e.g. towing 20-30k in a goosneck across country)

Again, no disagreement. I'm all for solving their truck use case first, and worrying about towing a boat coast to coast later. Their use case is infinitely easier to solve, removes most CO2, and they are happy to pay enough for bells and whistles to cover the higher cost of battery.

Apparently, good folks at Autolist knew what we were discussing, and came up with a survey of ~1,000 people currently shopping for a truck. As some here predicted, people already owning a truck were noticeably cooler to Tesla and warmer to an electric Ford/GM. First time truck buyers were about evenly split. Al in all, 20% would buy Cybertruck - which, if it stands, would be an insane success for Tesla.

https://www.autolist.com/news-and-analysis/survey-electric-pickups-GM-ford-tesla-rivian

h/t Cleantechnica

Yay, data! Interesting and yes, kinda expected. The real question is, how many of these folks will follow through on their preferences?

At the risk of beating a dead horse here, RE the cosplay thing: Agree, there are urban cowboys and cosplay contractors aplenty. But this is true of most of the automotive market (except perhaps econoboxes). Brand image is why someone buys a Subaru instead of a Honda even though the vehicles in question are nearly identical. Most car buying is aspirational. Cybertruck will most definitely attract an urban space cowboy demographic that would like to view themselves as rolling in post-apocalyptic bug-out vehicles, whereas much (most?) of the traditional pickup truck market will regard it more as an obese crossover with an oversized trunk.

It ain't going to actually perform like a sports car.

But can you run over right turn only signs while making a left across traffic that has a green light? If so, I'm in!

Elon clipping the no-turn sign with the real wheel is exactly what I'd expect from new drivers of long trucks. The truck's ass hangs so far behind that it cuts the corner, which is why you have to get into the habit of turning wider than usual *and* paying close attention to your mirrors (oops, no mirrors!). This is also why Elon's desire to use cameras instead of side view mirrors is silly. If you're hauling a trailer you really need to see around the side of the truck and the trailer (which are often wider than the truck), hence the tow mirrors that stick out on many trucks. And even when just driving you really want the side view in the direction of the turn, not on the center console, so you can see the direction you're turning while also watching your ass.

In other words, I agree with @MilesTeg that these new non-truck converts are going to be taken aback by the size and lack of maneuverability of Cybertruck. As far as I can tell from the specs it's about the same size as my crew cab with 6.5 foot bed, which is a pain to navigate around town, and especially to park -- there's a reason many pickup drivers back in to parking spots. You just have to have the mindset that there are a lot of places you cannot go/park in urban settings. So going back to the survey, how many non-truck drivers will commit to purchasing after test driving one and perhaps realizing that it won't fit in their garage or their driveway?

[MilesTeg]

It ain't going to actually perform like a sports car.

But can you run over right turn only signs while making a left across traffic that has a green light? If so, I'm in!

Lot of body roll on that turn... One reason air suspensions are not common.

[GodlessCommie]

I don't disagree about adjustment to size and performance being, essentially, a straight line performance. I just don't see how this is unique to Tesla. Truck market share did not grow to its current size by the same people buying trucks over and over - and while I don't hold cowboy cosplayers in very high regard, they clearly managed to learn how to drive and park similarly sized ICE trucks. So whatever adjustment is necessary, other people went through it already. And all new to trucks buyers in the survey will have to go through it, no matter which truck they buy.

Say, only half the people follow through, and Tesla gets 10% of new pickup sales out of the door. That's MASSIVE. And it doesn't account for people switching from other body styles specifically for a Tesla truck, and not looking for a pickup at the moment.

[Herbert Derp]

BTW does the cybertruck come with a pass through window to get from the cab to the bed? No way I'm going outside to drive off when the zombie bears are out there!

@Spartana: apparently, yes!

See here:
https://www.teslarati.com/top-10-tesla-cybertruck-hidden-features-you-may-have-missed/

[HBFIRE]

BTW does the cybertruck come with a pass through window to get from the cab to the bed? No way I'm going outside to drive off when the zombie bears are out there!

@Spartana: apparently, yes!

See here:
https://www.teslarati.com/top-10-tesla-cybertruck-hidden-features-you-may-have-missed/

Did I miss it here?  Looks like the center armrest folds down for a small pass through for items you're hauling but I don't think it's a very large opening.

[FINate]

Love the side bike rack. Great idea!

[the_fixer]

I think a big thing that everyone is overlooking is the payload. Anyone that is familiar with towing capacities will be aware that payload is typically the limiting factor in most towing situations.

The fact that it is rated at 3000 for all levels tells me they are paying attention and shows promise.

Ford likes to flaunt the towing capacity of the f150 but the reality is that you run out of payload rather quickly even with the huge towing capacity and rarely can reach the max towing without exceeding the payload capacity.

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[FINate]

I think a big thing that everyone is overlooking is the payload. Anyone that is familiar with towing capacities will be aware that payload is typically the limiting factor in most towing situations.

The fact that it is rated at 3000 for all levels tells me they are paying attention and shows promise.

Ford likes to flaunt the towing capacity of the f150 but the reality is that you run out of payload rather quickly even with the huge towing capacity and rarely can reach the max towing without exceeding the payload capacity.

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I suspect most people aren't towing rated loads so payload isn't an issue. Not sure how widespread this is, but the rule of thumb I found when looking into all this stuff years ago was that you want the load to be about 80% of the rating. Technically it's fine going right to the limit, but the overall towing and handling with an 80% load is better when dealing with adverse conditions like strong crosswinds, long grades, and steep winding descents. This isn't just about power, there are other factors involved and you don't want to feel like the trailer is pushing the tow vehicle around. So if you want to tow a 10,000 lb travel trailer at 80% of the rated load, that means a tow rating of 12500 lbs...which incidentally is near the high end of F150 configurations.

For those desiring a large payload/towing capacity, I'd like to suggest a different strategy: Buy something like a used F250 turbo diesel (~$35k, 4 years old about 50k miles, plenty of go left in it) for towing and hauling. Then buy a used Nissan Leaf (~$12k) since this has more than enough range for around town driving and the daily commute. You won't spend much on fuel for the F250 because you only use it for towing/hauling stuff, though you will have to pay registration and insurance on two vehicles. The Leaf will be far nicer to drive around town than a truck of any sort, and the combined cost is far lower than the $70k Cybertruck. 

[six-car-habit]

So does this mean that Ford is going down a dead end street with their all-electric F-150? What about Tesla and the other companies who plan to manufacture electric semi trucks? If the problem is as clear cut as you seem to think it is, all these companies wouldn't even be bothering to make electric towing trucks.

You are using American auto companies as examples of intelligent forward-thinking which cannot fail?

I'm sure it's great and all, feeling like you've got smarter Austrailian car brands [or aussie subsidiaries] producing awesome automobiles, that are far and away better than what the Americans are offering around the world--- wait, whats that ?   Oooops.... what i'm reading says austrailian car manufacturing effectively ended in 2017....

 “It just didn’t reach the scale of operation,” said John W. Freebairn, an economics professor at the University of Melbourne. “You have to compete with the smart U.S. manufacturers, the Japanese, the South Koreans and so on who are producing several hundred thousand units a year. Our guys were nowhere near that.”

 From what i've read there were gov't subsidies as well over the years, so thats's not an effective counter argument. Don't get me wrong, the Aussie factories / engineering departments - did make some pretty cool cars / ute's througout the years, but nowadays, apparently even toyota can't sucessfully produce a car there.

[Kyle Schuant]

So your argument is, "yes, American auto manufacturers are dumb, but Australian ones are dumber"?

I agree with that.

This doesn't contend with my actual point: that just because because Ford et al are doing something does not mean that it is commercially smart. The Cybertruck will not be delivered on time, it will not perform as advertised, and it will be a commercial failure. Of course, some hipsters will buy it. Hell, people bought Google Glass. As Seth Godin noted, some people want new, but most people want something that just works.

[CowboyAndIndian]

The Cybertruck will not be delivered on time, it will not perform as advertised, and it will be a commercial failure.

I totally disagree with this statement, except for the delivery delays.

Every car that Tesla has put out has met or exceeded expectations. My Model 3 is almost a year old and has 12k miles (19200 km). It is a far better car than what I bought a year ago with new software updates.

As far a being a commercial failure, you do not realize how many suburban Americans drive trucks for the cool factor. These are going to be a prime target for Tesla.

[neo von retorch]

As far a being a commercial failure, you do not realize how many suburban Americans drive trucks for the cool factor. These are going to be a prime target for Tesla.

Probably need to define commercial success?

So quite a few million trucks are bought every year. Assuming the same guys that think an F150, Silverado or RAM is cool think the Cybertruck is cool, then maybe they start buying those. If it's a huge swing, values of existing ICE trucks, especially new, would start to drop. Production on those would have to be reduced to compensate.

Point just being that markets have an equilibrium. If this is truly disruptive, the prices of now perceived inferior products will likely drop, changing the decision process.

Laughably, trucks often have 20% discounts off MSRP...a drop from $65k down to $52k. That's more like the real world price. If sales slow enough, desperation of manufacturers and/or dealers will increase incentives and sway buyers.

That's all assuming a big enough perceived value and feature increase, not to mention the necessary production levels Tesla has not yet had to handle. Their best month was something like 25k? While the full-sized truck market sells ten times that.

In conclusion, Tesla will sell every Cybertruck they produce, probably for the first five years or more. But meanwhile truck-buying for a large majority won't look that much different.

[TomTX]

That's all assuming a big enough perceived value and feature increase, not to mention the necessary production levels Tesla has not yet had to handle. Their best month was something like 25k? While the full-sized truck market sells ten times that.

Yeah, 3Q production for Model 3 was slightly above 25k/month. Globally.

The US truck market is really large - it's going to take Tesla awhile after they start production to be able to supply even 10% of it. That would be 100k Cybertrucks a month.

[FINate]

So after all the comparisons to the F150, it turns out that the Cybertruck will be classified as a Class 2B-3 medium-duty vehicle.

In other words, it's in the same class as the F250.  All the talk of best in class towing and payload completely misses the mark since the F250 can tow up to 15000 lbs and carry a payload of up to 4300 lbs. This is strange, and disconcerting...why would Tesla claim it's gunning for the F150 and draw so many direct comparisons to it, and then produce a totally different class of vehicle? This would be like Ford bragging that the F150 can tow more than a Tacoma. Weird.

[Kem]

Medium duty vehicles - > 6000#+ qualifies for 100% first-year bonus depreciation and Sec. 179 expensing if used over 50% for business.

Will need to wait closer to release for clarification if self driving services on Tesla network can qualify as an independent business.  If so, start a small personal transportation business, buy the truck through that, ensure 50%+ of miles are used on the Tesla network and in return recieve a self sustaining vehicle.  After a couple of years you have a slightly used vehicle with - potential - very little out of pocket.

Or am I dreaming?

(but this news does make comparisons to 150 baseless)

[JLee]

So after all the comparisons to the F150, it turns out that the Cybertruck will be classified as a Class 2B-3 medium-duty vehicle.

In other words, it's in the same class as the F250.  All the talk of best in class towing and payload completely misses the mark since the F250 can tow up to 15000 lbs and carry a payload of up to 4300 lbs. This is strange, and disconcerting...why would Tesla claim it's gunning for the F150 and draw so many direct comparisons to it, and then produce a totally different class of vehicle? This would be like Ford bragging that the F150 can tow more than a Tacoma. Weird.

They're classed by weight and batteries are heavy.

[FINate]

They're classed by weight and batteries are heavy.

And? The point remains that it's in the same class of vehicles as the F250. Heavy batteries, heavy suspension, heavy frame/body, whatever the reason(s), heavier vehicles can handle more weight. Introducing the Cybertruck as a 1/2 vehicle so that it's specs appear best in class, when it is in fact a 3/4 ton truck is amateurish. If any of the traditional truck companies did something like this they would (rightfully) be raked over the coals.

Speaking of coals...coal rolling is bad enough as it is. As an avid cyclist in an area that's likely to see more than a few of these on the road, I'm not excited about a massive ~9000 lb high center of gravity vehicle that accelerates 0-60 in under 3 seconds.

[the_fixer]

Or another way to look at it...

The physical dimensions are similar to that of the 1/2 ton truck but with a capacity in the 3/4 range.



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[FINate]

Or another way to look at it...

The physical dimensions are similar to that of the 1/2 ton truck but with a capacity in the 3/4 range.



Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

That's a distinction w/o a difference. A F150 and F250 with the same cab and bed length are approximately the same dimensions. It's what's underneath the skin that differentiates between the two, with the F250 having heavier suspension  and overall more robust build.

[the_fixer]

Or another way to look at it...

The physical dimensions are similar to that of the 1/2 ton truck but with a capacity in the 3/4 range.



Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

That's a distinction w/o a difference. A F150 and F250 with the same cab and bed length are approximately the same dimensions. It's what's underneath the skin that differentiates between the two, with the F250 having heavier suspension  and overall more robust build.

I suggest you look at data from Ford on the dimensions and you will see that is not the case.

For example
shortest length  F250 231.8
Shortest length  F150 209.3

F250 height 78.9
F150 75.5


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[FINate]

Or another way to look at it...

The physical dimensions are similar to that of the 1/2 ton truck but with a capacity in the 3/4 range.



Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

That's a distinction w/o a difference. A F150 and F250 with the same cab and bed length are approximately the same dimensions. It's what's underneath the skin that differentiates between the two, with the F250 having heavier suspension  and overall more robust build.

I suggest you look at data from Ford on the dimensions and you will see that is not the case.

For example
shortest length  F250 231.8
Shortest length  F150 209.3

F250 height 78.9
F150 75.5


Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

Yes, I know, but comparing minimum lengths isn't what I'm talking about because different bed lengths are offered. The F150 offers a 5.5' bed, but also a 6.5' and 8', whereas the F250 offers min 6.75' bed but also a 8' option. A F150 Super Cab with 8' bed is 250" long and a F250 Super Cab is 254" in length. The 250 rides a little higher because it has a beefier suspension. Like I said, they are approximately the same dimensions.

[JLee]

They're classed by weight and batteries are heavy.

And? The point remains that it's in the same class of vehicles as the F250. Heavy batteries, heavy suspension, heavy frame/body, whatever the reason(s), heavier vehicles can handle more weight. Introducing the Cybertruck as a 1/2 vehicle so that it's specs appear best in class, when it is in fact a 3/4 ton truck is amateurish. If any of the traditional truck companies did something like this they would (rightfully) be raked over the coals.

Speaking of coals...coal rolling is bad enough as it is. As an avid cyclist in an area that's likely to see more than a few of these on the road, I'm not excited about a massive ~9000 lb high center of gravity vehicle that accelerates 0-60 in under 3 seconds.

Well, if Musk is so amateur, go start your own company and beat him.

Tesla has enough tech to largely ensure that you won't get hit by one, even if you do something stupid and not the driver.

[FINate]

Well, if Musk is so amateur, go start your own company and beat him.

Tesla has enough tech to largely ensure that you won't get hit by one, even if you do something stupid and not the driver.

Hah! No. I'm not that passionate about vehicles, and starting a company out of spite is a terrible idea. I was being charitable when calling it amateurish, since it seems they're intentionally misleading customers by comparing a 3/4 ton truck with middling in-class specs with those of the next class down in order to look impressive. There are lots of reasons people choose a 1/2 ton vs 3/4 ton and vice versa: price, handling, ride quality, etc. The Cybertruck is clearly not competing on price ($40k for RWD 7k lbs towing vs. $28k for comparable F150 specs). Maybe the air suspension will allow the Cybertuck to handle higher loads while avoiding the harsh unladen ride quality of 3/4 ton pickups? That would make more sense, but that's not at all what was presented.

Regarding my personal safety and that of my kids who ride with me: I'm not as worried about a driver doing something like accidentally swerving or not paying attention, but rather drivers being far too aggressive and putting themselves in a position where it's physically impossible to stop their vehicle in time. In other words, the technology would need to prevent speeding in neighborhoods and school zones, prohibit passing in no-pass zones, and limit acceleration at intersections. If Tesla's software does this, great! But my understanding is that it will still allow drivers to drive dangerously.

[Kyle Schuant]

Musk excels not at manufacturing things, but at drumming up hype and scoring government handouts.

It's these skills which have made him a wealthy man.

[Jon Bon]

Musk excels not at manufacturing things, but at drumming up hype and scoring government handouts.

It's these skills which have made him a wealthy man.

I mean ~750,000 cars, 77 rocket launches, and a shitton of solar panels.

But ok.

[Roland of Gilead]

Musk excels not at manufacturing things, but at drumming up hype and scoring government handouts.

It's these skills which have made him a wealthy man.

If you want to look at government handouts, Boeing is getting a lot more than Musk for the exact same space deliveries.

[HBFIRE]

Musk excels not at manufacturing things, but at drumming up hype and scoring government handouts.

It's these skills which have made him a wealthy man.

That's not what made him wealthy.  He made his wealth selling his start up Zip2 and then founded x.com which became paypal.

[rothwem]

IMO Ford (and GM/Ram) they are not in fact advertising to construction workers.

They are advertising to relatively wealthy suburban dads who want to cosplay a construction worker on the weekend.

No disagreement here. Relatively wealthy suburban dads - and others who buy trucks mostly for cultural reasons - are the most lucrative truck-buying demographics. And it's their cultural sensitivities that are the biggest barrier to them buying an EV of any kind.

I don't think you guys are THAT wrong about who buys the trucks, but the motivations are wrong.  In the rural or semi-rural half of the US, its just expected that you'll own a truck.  Its odd if you don't.  In the northeast, if you're not a "car guy" and you don't care about what gets you from A to B, you buy a Camry, a Prius or a Subaru.  In rural areas, you just buy a truck, usually whichever brand your father drove. 

Its not about pretending to be someone you're not, though I get how you could get that impression if you live in the Bay Area, where its likely that nobody except for fake construction worker douches drive trucks, but its "normal" for people to own a fullsize truck in most of the US. 

And honestly, a fullsize truck is probably not the worst thing for most people to drive.  They're simple, durable, and while they eat gas like crazy, they hold value well.  Its the "sensible" option most of the time.

Both parties backing the USMCA trade deal. It requires 75% of auto parts to be made in made in NA to avoid tariffs up from 62.5%. It also means auto workers must make $16/hr to avoid tariff which is 3x avg Mexican auto workers wage. Since Tesla already manufactures most parts in the USA, it's prices won't be affected but almost every other automaker will take a hit on parts & labor. If ratified, Cybertruck price competitiveness will increase.

Lol, and where do you think Tesla buys the components to build their truck? Steering racks, CV-axles, Control arms?  I doubt that they make those in Fremont, they buy them from sub suppliers.  Those sub suppliers have to source parts from outside the US and are going to be subject to tariffs, which increase the cost of their components.  Tesla will be just as fucked as the rest of the auto industry.

[lemonlyman]

Lol, and where do you think Tesla buys the components to build their truck? Steering racks, CV-axles, Control arms?  I doubt that they make those in Fremont, they buy them from sub suppliers.  Those sub suppliers have to source parts from outside the US and are going to be subject to tariffs, which increase the cost of their components.  Tesla will be just as fucked as the rest of the auto industry.

https://electrek.co/2017/09/06/tesla-model-3-supply-chain-parts-us-canada-mexico/

And 100% assembled in the US. Ford has already announced the Mach E will be assembled in Mexico (labor) and batteries will probably come from China. Don't know about the Cybertruck yet. I'm guessing Tesla will not be "fucked" based on their current supply chain.

[neo von retorch]

In rural areas, you just buy a truck, usually whichever brand your father drove. 

Yes - I try to be a rational person, but I've owned three vehicles bigger than a wagon... a Tahoe and two Silverados. Guess what my dad drives? (He's owned at least half a dozen Chevy pickup trucks in his life.)

In my neighborhood, the guys that own trucks buy reasonably priced versions, use the hell out of them, and drive them for a decade. It's a HCOLA, and given the home prices, you'd might assume really good incomes, but from talking to neighbors, I get the feeling they are (somewhat) modest. My neighbors aren't exactly frugal, but many of them work hard on things like firewood and DIY to reduce unnecessary expenses.

To circle back to the above, I know of one father/son that own two of the homes in our neighborhood. They both own grey F150s... and they both see a lot of (truck-related) use. Will the son's own kids grow up and buy Ford? Maybe, maybe not. But statistically... it's likely. It's a lot more than their self-image or what they want to look like to other people. They want to be their father's sons. They will want to work hard like he does and somewhere in their sub-conscious, they'll want to drive what he drives.

Looking bonkers in a Cybertruck is not the top priority when they go to buy a truck. They literally drive to the Ford dealership and take a look around. They won't stumble on a Tesla in the parking lot and take it for a test drive. To buy one, you have to learn about one, be fascinated by it, and go out of your way to get one. (Yes, I know you can just "order a Tesla online", but most people don't buy cars that way!)

[lemonlyman]

The Cybertruck is clearly not competing on price ($40k for RWD 7k lbs towing vs. $28k for comparable F150 specs). Maybe the air suspension will allow the Cybertuck to handle higher loads while avoiding the harsh unladen ride quality of 3/4 ton pickups? That would make more sense, but that's not at all what was presented.

Towing isn't the only spec for a vehicle. The Cybertruck doesn't come in 100 variants. Tesla's software, autopilot, cab size, cost of ownership, life expectancy of the motor, tailgate ramp, cargo volume, and not to forget emissions are all features a $28k F150 doesn't have. An F150 cannot replicate the software advantage. Not even close. We get towing and torque are your thing. Not all buyers look at trucks in only that fashion. Just look around at all the pristine toy trucks. Regarding the duty size, it's wise not to take marketing at face value. Ford says the F150 has "military grade" body. Do you go down that rabbit hold of comparing the F150 to military vehicles? Tesla is comparing the Cybertruck to the F150 because it sells the most. That's obvious. You're getting really hung up on marketing details.

[rothwem]

Lol, and where do you think Tesla buys the components to build their truck? Steering racks, CV-axles, Control arms?  I doubt that they make those in Fremont, they buy them from sub suppliers.  Those sub suppliers have to source parts from outside the US and are going to be subject to tariffs, which increase the cost of their components.  Tesla will be just as fucked as the rest of the auto industry.

https://electrek.co/2017/09/06/tesla-model-3-supply-chain-parts-us-canada-mexico/

And 100% assembled in the US. Ford has already announced the Mach E will be assembled in Mexico (labor) and batteries will probably come from China. Don't know about the Cybertruck yet. I'm guessing Tesla will not be "fucked" based on their current supply chain.

Have you ever worked anywhere where things are made? 

A car has a LOT of moving parts.  The way you manage that is with sub-assemblies.  You might buy a steering rack assembly from ZF, a German company that probably has a factory in Mexico.  However, the steel for the rack and pinion gears probably came from Korea, and was machined and heat treated there. The casting for the steering rack casing was probably made in China, since there's not many (if any?) large-scale Aluminum foundries in the US.  These pieces are then put together in Mexico, and shipped to the US, where its hung on the car.  Is that a US or Mexico product?  Not completely. 

[lemonlyman]

Have you ever worked anywhere where things are made? 

A car has a LOT of moving parts.  The way you manage that is with sub-assemblies.  You might buy a steering rack assembly from ZF, a German company that probably has a factory in Mexico.  However, the steel for the rack and pinion gears probably came from Korea, and was machined and heat treated there. The casting for the steering rack casing was probably made in China, since there's not many (if any?) large-scale Aluminum foundries in the US.  These pieces are then put together in Mexico, and shipped to the US, where its hung on the car.  Is that a US or Mexico product?  Not completely.

I'm not sure where I've worked is relevant. Electric cars don't have that many moving parts. The parts and assembly information is on the sticker as a NAFTA regulation. The USMCA has more strict requirements. If the car is assembled in Mexico, that's clearly a labor cost issue with the proposed regs.

[GodlessCommie]

I don't think you guys are THAT wrong about who buys the trucks, but the motivations are wrong.  In the rural or semi-rural half of the US, its just expected that you'll own a truck.  Its odd if you don't.  In the northeast, if you're not a "car guy" and you don't care about what gets you from A to B, you buy a Camry, a Prius or a Subaru.  In rural areas, you just buy a truck, usually whichever brand your father drove. 

Its not about pretending to be someone you're not, though I get how you could get that impression if you live in the Bay Area, where its likely that nobody except for fake construction worker douches drive trucks, but its "normal" for people to own a fullsize truck in most of the US. 

I hear you. I have no idea what motivates people in rural areas, which is why my comments are specifically about suburbia. And in suburban areas, trucks are most of the time silly, especially if used as a single-person commuters into cities (which they often are).

Thinking more of it, I admit that it was wrong of me to assign motivations to people I don't know that deep, even if they live on my street. If I understand you right, you confirm that the phenomenon is mostly cultural. It's just cultural in a way that doesn't need to be looked down upon. 

On the "most of the US"... It is technically correct, if you look at the landmass. But only 9% of the US population lives in rural areas, and its share is shrinking. Suburban and urban far outweighs rural. So, why I understand that everyone brings culture they inherited with them wherever they go, it is equally important to recognize that the environment in which we live today is very different from the environment in which previous generations lived. We simply cannot continue living on large lots, drive large vehicles, and expect the infrastructure to be cheap and convenient.

[FINate]

Towing isn't the only spec for a vehicle. The Cybertruck doesn't come in 100 variants. Tesla's software, autopilot, cab size, cost of ownership, life expectancy of the motor, tailgate ramp, cargo volume, and not to forget emissions are all features a $28k F150 doesn't have. An F150 cannot replicate the software advantage. Not even close. We get towing and torque are your thing. Not all buyers look at trucks in only that fashion. Just look around at all the pristine toy trucks. Regarding the duty size, it's wise not to take marketing at face value. Ford says the F150 has "military grade" body. Do you go down that rabbit hold of comparing the F150 to military vehicles? Tesla is comparing the Cybertruck to the F150 because it sells the most. That's obvious. You're getting really hung up on marketing details.

Agree, there's a lot more to a truck than towing and payload, which is why there are so many different ways to build a F150 (per link up thread, ~2 billion combinations). This level of customization is a reflection of how trucks are used. Some people care about cargo space, others need towing, some want extra passenger space, others want shorter wheelbase. Each configuration involves tradeoffs, there is no since perfect vehicle for everything. It looks like the EV F150 will add yet another configuration option for the drivetrain. In other words, the F150 isn't a single vehicle but rather a constellation of vehicles in the same family. In this sense the Cybertruck with its unibody construction and 6.5' bed and a four door crew cab is fairly limited. It doesn't compete the overall F150 family (or other 1/2 ton truck brands) but rather with a small slice within this constellation of vehicles. Don't get me wrong, there's a market for this and people will buy it, but it's unfortunate that you can't get a regular cab with 8' bed, or a crew cab with 5.5' bed, or any other option.

RE military vehicles: At the risk of repeating myself, no, I do not like the militarization of anything as if this makes it tougher or more masculine or whatever. I don't like the glorification of the military, period. All the automakers do goofy marketing (e.g. the EV F150 "towing" 1.2M lbs), or Ford touting the "military grade" aluminium in the F150. However, the Cybertruck is taking this to new lows. I'm not a designer, but here's a quote from a designer that pretty well summarizes my feelings:

The problem I’m having with it is really on a societal-ethical level. This thing just conveys dystopia, it conveys a war zone, a combat vehicle. And that kind of messaging is just not what I want to see on the roads...

It's the same reason I never liked the Hummer. But marketing antics aside, misclassifying a vehicle is a rather fundamental error. If they want to go after the F150 because it is the most popular truck then build a 1/2 ton truck.

[FINate]

I hear you. I have no idea what motivates people in rural areas, which is why my comments are specifically about suburbia. And in suburban areas, trucks are most of the time silly, especially if used as a single-person commuters into cities (which they often are).

If by "cities" you mean places like Silicon Valley with sprawling office parks then, yes, the Cybertruck is a fine choice. But commuting to a proper city by truck would be a royal pain in the ass and would drive most people nuts. Seriously, if you don't already drive a truck (and this thing seems to attract non-truck owners) then you're way better off with a Model 3 or Y for commuting into the city.

[GodlessCommie]

If by "cities" you mean places like Silicon Valley with sprawling office parks then, yes, the Cybertruck is a fine choice. But commuting to a proper city by truck would be a royal pain in the ass and would drive most people nuts.

I'm with you 100%.

Seriously, if you don't already drive a truck (and this thing seems to attract non-truck owners) then you're way better off with a Model 3 or Y for commuting into the city.

Here's the catch: truck (and large SUV) share is growing. People are switching away from cars regardless of it being a sensible choice or not. If Cybertruck catches some of these converts (and thus prevents them from buying an ICE truck), it's a win. If people switch to it from a Bolt or Model 3, it's a loss.

[FINate]

Here's the catch: truck (and large SUV) share is growing. People are switching away from cars regardless of it being a sensible choice or not. If Cybertruck catches some of these converts (and thus prevents them from buying an ICE truck), it's a win. If people switch to it from a Bolt or Model 3, it's a loss.

Yes, agree. I think a mid-size Tesla truck would have more appeal, but maybe they worried this would cannibalize their other models. The funky looks may be an intentional attempt to further segment their market, though this is notoriously difficult (e.g. retirees buying Toyota's Scion marquee that was targeted at millenials).

[MilesTeg]

The Cybertruck is clearly not competing on price ($40k for RWD 7k lbs towing vs. $28k for comparable F150 specs). Maybe the air suspension will allow the Cybertuck to handle higher loads while avoiding the harsh unladen ride quality of 3/4 ton pickups? That would make more sense, but that's not at all what was presented.

Towing isn't the only spec for a vehicle. The Cybertruck doesn't come in 100 variants. Tesla's software, autopilot, cab size, cost of ownership, life expectancy of the motor, tailgate ramp, cargo volume, and not to forget emissions are all features a $28k F150 doesn't have. An F150 cannot replicate the software advantage. Not even close. We get towing and torque are your thing. Not all buyers look at trucks in only that fashion. Just look around at all the pristine toy trucks. Regarding the duty size, it's wise not to take marketing at face value. Ford says the F150 has "military grade" body. Do you go down that rabbit hold of comparing the F150 to military vehicles? Tesla is comparing the Cybertruck to the F150 because it sells the most. That's obvious. You're getting really hung up on marketing details.

All the OTA software garbage in cars is a liability, not a feature. As soon as it's not longer in their financial interest, companies will drop support. Then you'll have a OTA capable, unmaintained gaping security hole in the vehicle. I, for one, am not interested in seeing a future with vehicles that have trivially hacked control systems on the road. It's going to be a shit show.

(p.s., I'm a gen-millenial-x software developer with a security background)

[aspiringnomad]

The Cybertruck is clearly not competing on price ($40k for RWD 7k lbs towing vs. $28k for comparable F150 specs). Maybe the air suspension will allow the Cybertuck to handle higher loads while avoiding the harsh unladen ride quality of 3/4 ton pickups? That would make more sense, but that's not at all what was presented.

Towing isn't the only spec for a vehicle. The Cybertruck doesn't come in 100 variants. Tesla's software, autopilot, cab size, cost of ownership, life expectancy of the motor, tailgate ramp, cargo volume, and not to forget emissions are all features a $28k F150 doesn't have. An F150 cannot replicate the software advantage. Not even close. We get towing and torque are your thing. Not all buyers look at trucks in only that fashion. Just look around at all the pristine toy trucks. Regarding the duty size, it's wise not to take marketing at face value. Ford says the F150 has "military grade" body. Do you go down that rabbit hold of comparing the F150 to military vehicles? Tesla is comparing the Cybertruck to the F150 because it sells the most. That's obvious. You're getting really hung up on marketing details.

All the OTA software garbage in cars is a liability, not a feature. As soon as it's not longer in their financial interest, companies will drop support. Then you'll have a OTA capable, unmaintained gaping security hole in the vehicle. I, for one, am not interested in seeing a future with vehicles that have trivially hacked control systems on the road. It's going to be a shit show.

(p.s., I'm a gen-millenial-x software developer with a security background)

A cold rolled steel Cybertruck sounds perfect for your Mad Max future.

[Just Joe]

Road trips in an EV apparently look a little like this:

https://youtu.be/ICtBTNRgaNM

[FINate]

After 4 years, much speculation, and a global pandemic, Cybertruck has finally arrived. Well... sorta. 10 have been delivered. But this means we finally have pricing and specs.

In true Musk fashion, he over promised and under-delivered. The lowest trim is priced 50% higher than the original $40k starting price, at $61k. But this trim still doesn't actually exist and won't for at least a year which, given his record, could be 2-3 years. So the real starting price is around $80k for the two motor AWD, so just a small 100% increase. And the range is more in the low 300s, not 500 as promised. Gone are the bullet resistant windows (now they're apparently softly-lobbed-baseball resistant, lol). Also not an exoskeleton, but rather stainless steel body panels on unibody construction. The original towing specs have been reduced from best-in-class 14,000 lbs. down to a middling 11,000 lbs. Similarly, payload capacity has decreased from 3,500 lbs to 2,500 lbs. (source)

A lot has happened in the industry over the past 48 months. The majors beat Tesla to the EV pickup market. And Rivian released their R1T, which I see fairly regularly around Boise.

How does the delivered Cybertruck compare to the competition? Pretty underwhelming overall, middle of the pack in most areas. Cyberbeast is for sure the fastest in a straight line, though not sure why this is important for a truck.

All this to say: Cybertruck is not the segment killer expected some years ago. People will buy it, but it's a niche vehicle.

Per the title of this thread, I'm still lamenting the squandered opportunity. Back in 2019 Tesla was realistically the only real player in the EV space. Musk could have reset the pickup market in a more useful utilitarian sense. Something like Tesla's version of the Toyota IMV 0 concept. But no, instead we got an expensive cosplay prop.

[JLee]

After 4 years, much speculation, and a global pandemic, Cybertruck has finally arrived. Well... sorta. 10 have been delivered. But this means we finally have pricing and specs.

In true Musk fashion, he over promised and under-delivered. The lowest trim is priced 50% higher than the original $40k starting price, at $61k. But this trim still doesn't actually exist and won't for at least a year which, given his record, could be 2-3 years. So the real starting price is around $80k for the two motor AWD, so just a small 100% increase. And the range is more in the low 300s, not 500 as promised. Gone are the bullet resistant windows (now they're apparently softly-lobbed-baseball resistant, lol). Also not an exoskeleton, but rather stainless steel body panels on unibody construction. The original towing specs have been reduced from best-in-class 14,000 lbs. down to a middling 11,000 lbs. Similarly, payload capacity has decreased from 3,500 lbs to 2,500 lbs. (source)

A lot has happened in the industry over the past 48 months. The majors beat Tesla to the EV pickup market. And Rivian released their R1T, which I see fairly regularly around Boise.

How does the delivered Cybertruck compare to the competition? Pretty underwhelming overall, middle of the pack in most areas. Cyberbeast is for sure the fastest in a straight line, though not sure why this is important for a truck.

All this to say: Cybertruck is not the segment killer expected some years ago. People will buy it, but it's a niche vehicle.

Per the title of this thread, I'm still lamenting the squandered opportunity. Back in 2019 Tesla was realistically the only real player in the EV space. Musk could have reset the pickup market in a more useful utilitarian sense. Something like Tesla's version of the Toyota IMV 0 concept. But no, instead we got an expensive cosplay prop.

Yes, in typical Elon fashion it's not what or when it was originally claimed to be, but I don't think your overall assessment is fair.

1) Rivian had dramatic price increases
2) Ford's sub-$40k Lighting Pro basically didn't exist, and they've had huge price increases since then
3) It's not equitable to compare the $40k base trim price to the available dual motor trim price
4) Yep range was a huge miss
5) Windows are 70mph ice ball resistant
6) Source on unibody? Everything I've read so far shows structural stainless exoskeleton. The Hagerty video is a good watch.
7) How is 11k tow "middling"? It beats the Hummer EV by a lot, beats the Lightning by a little, and ties with the Rivian. In a pull competition, it's no slouch.
8) Miss or not, payload capacity is dramatically higher than all other EV pickups.

Don't forget 350kW / 800v charging, borosilicate windshield, hardened stainless body (no paint to worry about, and it'll basically turn a keying attempt into drawing with a key crayon - fix it with scotchbrite), a longer bed than any other EV pickup option, and a tonneau cover you can walk on.  17" ground clearance (beats Rivian by almost 2"), and four wheel steering for a Model S turning radius. 48v low voltage architecture too, which is about time -- we've been stuck on 12v for far, far too long.

I'm not convinced I want to replace my R1T with one - I strongly dislike Elon and the Cybertruck's ugliness is on a new level, but it is overall a cool vehicle.

[FINate]

Yes, in typical Elon fashion it's not what or when it was originally claimed to be, but I don't think your overall assessment is fair.

1) Rivian had dramatic price increases
2) Ford's sub-$40k Lighting Pro basically didn't exist, and they've had huge price increases since then
3) It's not equitable to compare the $40k base trim price to the available dual motor trim price
4) Yep range was a huge miss
5) Windows are 70mph ice ball resistant
6) Source on unibody? Everything I've read so far shows structural stainless exoskeleton. The Hagerty video is a good watch.
7) How is 11k tow "middling"? It beats the Hummer EV by a lot, beats the Lightning by a little, and ties with the Rivian. In a pull competition, it's no slouch.
8) Miss or not, payload capacity is dramatically higher than all other EV pickups.

Don't forget 350kW / 800v charging, borosilicate windshield, hardened stainless body (no paint to worry about, and it'll basically turn a keying attempt into drawing with a key crayon - fix it with scotchbrite), a longer bed than any other EV pickup option, and a tonneau cover you can walk on.  17" ground clearance (beats Rivian by almost 2"), and four wheel steering for a Model S turning radius. 48v low voltage architecture too, which is about time -- we've been stuck on 12v for far, far too long.

I'm not convinced I want to replace my R1T with one - I strongly dislike Elon and the Cybertruck's ugliness is on a new level, but it is overall a cool vehicle.

1) Sure, it's still a bad practice. But my point is that folks were saying the price of Cybertruck (originally at $40k) would disrupt the pickup market. A weird looking $80k EV pickup won't fundamentally change the market 

2) I'm able to find Lightning Pro inventory (e.g. here) $52k with 4x4, so $10k cheaper than the 2WD Cybertruck, whenever that actually gets delivered. And one can easily put a lumber rack and/or topper on it, from any number of 3rd party providers.

5) So, who's asking for this? I just thought it was funny that, instead of trowing a steel ball, this time it was a softly lobbed baseball (which actually has a fair amount of give on impact).

6) It has a cast aluminum body with attached stainless steel panels. Yes, the panels are structural. Does this live up to what Musk promised in 2019? Not really. Here's a source: https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesla-cybertruck-went-from-exoskeleton-marvel-to-unibody-honda-ridgeline-competitor-214263.html

7) So, let's go back to 2019. The main competitor Cybertruck was compared to was IC 1/2 ton pickups, because there were no other EV pickups on the market. The F150 could then be configured to tow 13,200 lbs (now 14,000 lbs). This is why Cybertruck was originally promised to tow 14,000 lbs, to be best in class. I'm saying it's middling because a 11,000 lbs tow rating is, in fact, in the middle of the pack for a 1/2 ton pickup.

8) You're moving the goalposts. Cybertruck was supposed to beat IC trucks at their own game. That hasn't happened, at least not yet.

Yes, there are features that will attract some buyers, but not really the general pickup market. People that use their trucks for truck stuff don't care about scratches or dents. Whereas those that care about looks are mostly going to be turned off by Cybertruck's weird design.

The shape of Cybertruck's bed makes it much less functional. Difficult to reach over the front part of the bed. There are no clean ways to attach things to the bed rails (e.g. no bed stake pockets for attaching side boards). The location of the tonneau controls is a problem for things like campers and toppers.

[bmjohnson35]

I've watched about a dozen YouTube videos on the truck since its recent rollout.  I find it an interesting bit of kit.  It may be ugly and unconventional, but I wouldn't describe it as a failure.......yet. 

I don't buy new vehicles, let alone vehicles in this price range, so this is just a curiosity for me. I recently sold my Ford Ranger with 250k+ miles for a 12 year old Silverado extended cab with low mileage.  I am a bit of an auto enthusiast though, so I do enjoy reading/watching information on new models. The Cybertruck is one of the more interesting vehicles to come out in a long while.  Time will tell how it flushes out in the real-world.

[JLee]

Yes, in typical Elon fashion it's not what or when it was originally claimed to be, but I don't think your overall assessment is fair.

1) Rivian had dramatic price increases
2) Ford's sub-$40k Lighting Pro basically didn't exist, and they've had huge price increases since then
3) It's not equitable to compare the $40k base trim price to the available dual motor trim price
4) Yep range was a huge miss
5) Windows are 70mph ice ball resistant
6) Source on unibody? Everything I've read so far shows structural stainless exoskeleton. The Hagerty video is a good watch.
7) How is 11k tow "middling"? It beats the Hummer EV by a lot, beats the Lightning by a little, and ties with the Rivian. In a pull competition, it's no slouch.
8) Miss or not, payload capacity is dramatically higher than all other EV pickups.

Don't forget 350kW / 800v charging, borosilicate windshield, hardened stainless body (no paint to worry about, and it'll basically turn a keying attempt into drawing with a key crayon - fix it with scotchbrite), a longer bed than any other EV pickup option, and a tonneau cover you can walk on.  17" ground clearance (beats Rivian by almost 2"), and four wheel steering for a Model S turning radius. 48v low voltage architecture too, which is about time -- we've been stuck on 12v for far, far too long.

I'm not convinced I want to replace my R1T with one - I strongly dislike Elon and the Cybertruck's ugliness is on a new level, but it is overall a cool vehicle.

1) Sure, it's still a bad practice. But my point is that folks were saying the price of Cybertruck (originally at $40k) would disrupt the pickup market. A weird looking $80k EV pickup won't fundamentally change the market 

2) I'm able to find Lightning Pro inventory (e.g. here) $52k with 4x4, so $10k cheaper than the 2WD Cybertruck, whenever that actually gets delivered. And one can easily put a lumber rack and/or topper on it, from any number of 3rd party providers.

5) So, who's asking for this? I just thought it was funny that, instead of trowing a steel ball, this time it was a softly lobbed baseball (which actually has a fair amount of give on impact).

6) It has a cast aluminum body with attached stainless steel panels. Yes, the panels are structural. Does this live up to what Musk promised in 2019? Not really. Here's a source: https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesla-cybertruck-went-from-exoskeleton-marvel-to-unibody-honda-ridgeline-competitor-214263.html

7) So, let's go back to 2019. The main competitor Cybertruck was compared to was IC 1/2 ton pickups, because there were no other EV pickups on the market. The F150 could then be configured to tow 13,200 lbs (now 14,000 lbs). This is why Cybertruck was originally promised to tow 14,000 lbs, to be best in class. I'm saying it's middling because a 11,000 lbs tow rating is, in fact, in the middle of the pack for a 1/2 ton pickup.

8) You're moving the goalposts. Cybertruck was supposed to beat IC trucks at their own game. That hasn't happened, at least not yet.

Yes, there are features that will attract some buyers, but not really the general pickup market. People that use their trucks for truck stuff don't care about scratches or dents. Whereas those that care about looks are mostly going to be turned off by Cybertruck's weird design.

The shape of Cybertruck's bed makes it much less functional. Difficult to reach over the front part of the bed. There are no clean ways to attach things to the bed rails (e.g. no bed stake pockets for attaching side boards). The location of the tonneau controls is a problem for things like campers and toppers.

1) Thanks for clarifying your point - you made no mention of market disruption in your original post. One could argue the same thing about the $39k Lightning that basically never saw the light of day.
2) Car shopping isn't what it used to be.  I'd be shocked if that Lightning actually exists - dealers have a tendency to autopopulate their sites with vehicles that aren't there yet / are already allocated/sold.
5) Didn't watch the ice ball video? Doesn't matter who did or didn't ask for it - the point here is you're saying we went from 'bulletproof' to 'softly lobbed baseball' which is simply untrue.
6) The exterior is absolutely structural - the bed panels add a significant amount of torsional rigidity. Calling it a Ridgeline competitor is laughable, but we'll probably have to wait for Sandy Munro's tear down to see what's really up.
7) Fair enough -- see #8 below.
8) I thought we were talking about the class of EV trucks.  I don't think this is so much a "moving the goalposts" as a "goalposts weren't labeled."

I believe you're mistaken about people not caring about dents and scratches, unless by "truck stuff" you mean people who don't care about their vehicles anymore.

[bmjohnson35]

For those interested, there are several videos putting the Cybertruck up against the Rivian and Ford Lightning.  The cybertruck performed extremely well, especially the truck pull test. Another impressive test point is how consistent the power delivery was all the way down to 30% battery capacity.

There's also a recent video where they take a Tommy gun, a 9mm and a shotgun to shoot the body panels.  They did not shoot the windows, but the body panels took the shots well and none went through the inner door trim panel.  There's also a video where they take a rather large sledge hammer and smack the door panel, resulting in no visual damage. 

They also claim the truck has such a low center of gravity, that it's very difficult to turn it over.

All of this is entertaining or even a bit silly, but based on the initial impression reviews, Tesla largely delivered the over-top-top "privileged ride" that was promised years ago. I may have missed it, but I don't recall Elon or Tesla ever promoting the Cybertruck as a working man truck. Considering the interior space, 6.5' deep tray, additional deep trunk style storage space in the rear (similar to Honda Ridgeline), frunk, reasonable driving range and I would even say that it appears more functional than I ever expected it to be. 

I wonder how much a 4 ft replacement wiper blade will cost?