Author Topic: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck  (Read 42095 times)

neo von retorch

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4918
  • Location: SE PA
    • Fi@retorch - personal finance tracking
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #150 on: December 03, 2019, 11:47:52 AM »
@Jon Bon I love everything about your comments! Ha!

I love the white truck/not white truck comment. I was about to argue that my dad has a white truck that isn't a work truck, but when I remembered that he hates creature comforts and bought a work truck as his "nice" truck because that's how he rolls. He believes "a truck has two doors and an 8 foot bed." He's owned probably 6-8 trucks in his long lifetime, and all but the last two were used hard do get things done. And they were usually a decade old when he bought them and well into their third decade when he sold them. (If you're good at math, you realize he's not 120 years old; sometimes he owned more than one truck.)

Now I'm a guy who does a little work but back when I bought a truck, I got the one that unlocked the kid in me that always wanted a big, good-looking truck that could probably do other things good, too. The part of me that tries to do smart, efficient things would scream at me every minute that I drove that huge pretty green truck with bluetooth and a huge V8 that I could be driving a little hatchback to work, you know?!

I wasn't comparing the Frontier to the Cybertruck, though... just pointing out that trucks really do vary in price from $20k up to $100k (and beyond...) but people associate Tesla cars with rich people because A) the roadster was super expensive and had zero utility, B) the Model S was an expensive luxury sedan that got 140-200 miles of range. I can't find the official prices as of then but I believe they often approached $100k USD in the early days, especially if you got AWD, long-range and, god forbid, the Signature/Performance options. ANd C) even now, the Model 3 average is bumping against the $50k mark.

I've probably made my point too many times in too many threads already, but in the automotive industry, choice and personal customization beats specs. Even if, rather ironically, everyone drives black, gray and white SUVs (with lots of black, gray and white trucks and some black, gray and white sedans thrown in), people talk about how "the shade of gray they got is rare" and they got the "special trim level." And as many have pointed out, those with trucks love their truck accessories; remains to be seen how many people buy a Cybertruck and a truckload of special Cybertruck accessories. If it's a lot of people, Tesla will do very well for themselves. I am skeptical - I think most people buying trucks now from Ford, GM, Dodge and Toyota will continue to do so. And they'll go electric sometime after their favorite brand goes electric. That's just my silly prediction, but I don't think there's going to be some kind of massive defection over to Tesla once their truck can be purchased. Not unless everything lines up. Looks, value, status, performance, availability, convenience, etc. Most of those things are perception-based and I cannot predict how people will perceive the truck once it's a real thing you can buy. But I can guess there are people like me that will buy a Chevy even though I think objectively the Ford is probably better, and I don't want the attention of a Cybertruck (or an iPhone for that matter). I don't care what other people think, but I know the inner kid in me wants the Chevy. And I know some inner kids want the Cybertruck and that's a large part of why they'll buy it.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2019, 11:49:31 AM by neo von retorch »

GodlessCommie

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 969
  • Location: NoVA
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #151 on: December 03, 2019, 11:57:35 AM »
As to factory automation, Tesla is behind the established auto manufacturers in this area. Modern automotive factories are highly automated which is why car bodies are so well made these days with very tight tolerances. Not convinced the exoskeleton concept (really, it's a type of unibody) is a game changer here. Maybe it's a problem for Tesla (production hell), but the traditional car companies figured this out decades ago.
I don't think the argument here is that Tesla can't do traditional body design. They clearly can, and good enough to outsell Model 3's direct competitors - other luxury sedans. The point is that the elimination of paint is a huge cost saving, and origami process is a huge cost saving, too. Almost everything can be automated, but some things can be automated with simpler (and thus cheaper to both buy and maintain) machines. You can reprogram your "origami machine" to make a different body, but you can't simply reprogram the presses.

Kem

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 247
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #152 on: December 03, 2019, 12:06:56 PM »
"Also, I was able to bring large fuel cans to refuel in the field if needed. Can't do that with an EV unless you can haul and change out batteries"

Breaking news - tesla has decided to scrap the accessories ATV in favour of a bed mounted large capacity generator.
Provides unlimited range and allows all day job-site tool use

neo von retorch

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4918
  • Location: SE PA
    • Fi@retorch - personal finance tracking
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #153 on: December 03, 2019, 12:47:23 PM »
Breaking news - tesla has decided to scrap the accessories ATV in favour of a bed mounted large capacity generator.
Provides unlimited range and allows all day job-site tool use

@spartana One would hope the above is a joke 😊

Tesla would be out of character encouraging the burning of fossil fuels as a crutch for a perceived shortcoming of EVs!

FINate

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3114
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #154 on: December 03, 2019, 12:57:27 PM »
As to factory automation, Tesla is behind the established auto manufacturers in this area. Modern automotive factories are highly automated which is why car bodies are so well made these days with very tight tolerances. Not convinced the exoskeleton concept (really, it's a type of unibody) is a game changer here. Maybe it's a problem for Tesla (production hell), but the traditional car companies figured this out decades ago.
I don't think the argument here is that Tesla can't do traditional body design. They clearly can, and good enough to outsell Model 3's direct competitors - other luxury sedans. The point is that the elimination of paint is a huge cost saving, and origami process is a huge cost saving, too. Almost everything can be automated, but some things can be automated with simpler (and thus cheaper to both buy and maintain) machines. You can reprogram your "origami machine" to make a different body, but you can't simply reprogram the presses.

Clearly they can (and do) do traditional body design and production. Yet they have struggled to scale up, such as the Model 3 production hell where many of the vehicles coming off the line required large amounts of manual rework. A friend has an early production Model 3 and he likes it, but on close inspection the overall fit and finish is about 20-30 years behind the rest of the industry - very much in line with this guy's review.

So the origami design may bring down Tesla's production costs. If it does, great for them. But in order for the Cybertruck design to be some kind of master stroke that redefines the automotive industry it needs to confer a significant cost competitive advantage to Tesla over and above other automakers. If, like Ford, you're selling over 1M trucks a year, the up front capital investment to stamp body panels is spread over the large volume which decreases per-unit cost. That is, there's an economy of scale advantage. Maybe this is an attempt by Tesla to overcome this disadvantage on their end.

Will the exoskeleton fundamentally change the equation? We need to see data to make this comparison, data that we don't have. Until we get some hard facts, I'll take Elon at his word that he "really wanted something that’s like super-futuristic cyberpunk" and that the looks were inspired by a video game.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2019, 01:00:17 PM by FINate »

MilesTeg

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1363
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #155 on: December 03, 2019, 01:06:55 PM »
As to factory automation, Tesla is behind the established auto manufacturers in this area. Modern automotive factories are highly automated which is why car bodies are so well made these days with very tight tolerances. Not convinced the exoskeleton concept (really, it's a type of unibody) is a game changer here. Maybe it's a problem for Tesla (production hell), but the traditional car companies figured this out decades ago.
I don't think the argument here is that Tesla can't do traditional body design. They clearly can, and good enough to outsell Model 3's direct competitors - other luxury sedans. The point is that the elimination of paint is a huge cost saving, and origami process is a huge cost saving, too. Almost everything can be automated, but some things can be automated with simpler (and thus cheaper to both buy and maintain) machines. You can reprogram your "origami machine" to make a different body, but you can't simply reprogram the presses.

I'm very skeptical of any game changing cost savings. Car companies can crank out modern cars with their tons of electronics, safety equipment and emissions equipment for < $15,000 per unit and most make a tidy marginal profit on that. All the cost of building a car body these days is in the design, testing and construction of crumple zones. I'm very curious how Tesla plans to make a thick, heavy steel wedge shape into a vehicle that is anything but a death trap to the occupants in the event of an impact (just like before we got rid of the previous generation of built-like-a-tank cars).

The only considerable savings would be in the paint job, which "we'll sell you any color you like, as long as it's the one we make" was a car sales philosophy that proved to be a failure about a century ago, hah.

MilesTeg

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1363
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #156 on: December 03, 2019, 01:19:03 PM »
So lets keep  our comparisons there. I dont see guys regularly towing a 20k pound fifth wheel with a half ton truck. So sure some situations the cyber truck wont work, but that's true of every single dang car out there. It cant be all things to all people.

That's kinda the point. With a sane design, the cybertruck could have been far superior to all 1/2 ton (other than the intrinsic limits of current EV charging), and even many larger trucks. Instead, Tesla made a "cool" design and focused on 0-60 times and making it 'bullet proof'. Disappointing to the point of being straight up crazy.

Kem

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 247
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #157 on: December 03, 2019, 01:25:09 PM »
While the car is straight out of blade runner, musk's generator (MuskErator) was inspired from 'chain reaction'. Fill the beast up with water and the top solar panel splits it into hydrogen and oxygen.  The hydrogen powers the recharge and the oxygen may be used in times of biological defense mode - aka- Bio Musk.   This combo is certain to let you enjoy a good BM at anytime nature monitoring strains for relief.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2019, 01:26:45 PM by Kem »

Kem

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 247
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #158 on: December 03, 2019, 01:56:49 PM »
Joking aside - IF - full self driving becomes fully good... Locking in 7K to have a fully autonomous vehicle out on the Tesla Uber network while I do not need the vehicle... With 1 million mile engines.... This car should instead go for a LOT more than it is being sold for.

Herbert Derp

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1095
  • Age: 33
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #159 on: December 03, 2019, 02:19:35 PM »
Clearly they can (and do) do traditional body design and production. Yet they have struggled to scale up, such as the Model 3 production hell where many of the vehicles coming off the line required large amounts of manual rework. A friend has an early production Model 3 and he likes it, but on close inspection the overall fit and finish is about 20-30 years behind the rest of the industry - very much in line with this guy's review.

My understanding is that this issue has been fixed:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/16/bob-lutz-improved-tesla-panel-gaps-are-now-world-class/

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-fixing-quality-issues-nearly-5000-model-3-owners-say-2019-10

https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/tesla-model-3-model-s-regain-consumer-reports-recommendation/

So the origami design may bring down Tesla's production costs. If it does, great for them. But in order for the Cybertruck design to be some kind of master stroke that redefines the automotive industry it needs to confer a significant cost competitive advantage to Tesla over and above other automakers. If, like Ford, you're selling over 1M trucks a year, the up front capital investment to stamp body panels is spread over the large volume which decreases per-unit cost. That is, there's an economy of scale advantage. Maybe this is an attempt by Tesla to overcome this disadvantage on their end.

Will the exoskeleton fundamentally change the equation? We need to see data to make this comparison, data that we don't have. Until we get some hard facts, I'll take Elon at his word that he "really wanted something that’s like super-futuristic cyberpunk" and that the looks were inspired by a video game.

Yes, we don't know if this new manufacturing process will pan out or not. Elon himself admits that it doesn't exist yet. But we won't know until we try! In any case, I think that the theoretical benefits of this new approach to manufacturing are clear, and I assure you that Elon is not building it this way because he wants it to look cool. The Starship is not made out of stainless steel in order to look cool either, regardless of how much Elon is pushing that 20th century retro look. Elon designs his products according to a first principles approach, and then tacks on cool names, buzzwords, and marketing fluff after the fact, like "Starship", "Cybertruck", or "dragon wings". Some of the stuff does seem to be a marketing gimmick, though, such as the "Tesla Armor Glass". That just screams "Retina Display" to me.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2019, 03:32:45 PM by Herbert Derp »

FINate

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3114
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #160 on: December 03, 2019, 02:42:12 PM »
My understanding is that this issue has been fixed:
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/16/bob-lutz-improved-tesla-panel-gaps-are-now-world-class/

Indeed. And Consumer Reports recently reinstated their recommendation for some Tesla models. But they need to keep it up and demonstrate long-term consistency. Not sure pivoting to an entirely new and unproven manufacturing process for the Cybertruck body is a wise move. Maybe just don't buy one of the first model years ;-)

Yes, we don't know if this new manufacturing process will pan out or not. Elon himself admits that it doesn't exist yet. But we won't know until we try! In any case, I think that the theoretical benefits of this new approach to manufacturing are clear, and I assure you that Elon is not building it this way because he wants it to look cool. The Starship is not made out of stainless steel in order to look cool either, regardless of how much Elon is pushing that 20th century retro look. Elon designs his products according to a first principles approach, and then tacks on cool names, buzzwords, and marketing fluff after the fact, like "Starship", "Cybertruck", or "dragon wings". Some of the stuff does seem to be a marketing gimmick, though, such as the "Tesla Armor Glass". That just screams "Retina Display" to me.

So when Elon himself says he was motivated by looks (per my citations) are we to believe he's dishonest, or perhaps disingenuous?

GodlessCommie

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 969
  • Location: NoVA
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #161 on: December 03, 2019, 02:42:34 PM »
Clearly they can (and do) do traditional body design and production. Yet they have struggled to scale up, such as the Model 3 production hell where many of the vehicles coming off the line required large amounts of manual rework. A friend has an early production Model 3 and he likes it, but on close inspection the overall fit and finish is about 20-30 years behind the rest of the industry - very much in line with this guy's review.

So the origami design may bring down Tesla's production costs. If it does, great for them. But in order for the Cybertruck design to be some kind of master stroke that redefines the automotive industry it needs to confer a significant cost competitive advantage to Tesla over and above other automakers. If, like Ford, you're selling over 1M trucks a year, the up front capital investment to stamp body panels is spread over the large volume which decreases per-unit cost. That is, there's an economy of scale advantage. Maybe this is an attempt by Tesla to overcome this disadvantage on their end.

Will the exoskeleton fundamentally change the equation? We need to see data to make this comparison, data that we don't have. Until we get some hard facts, I'll take Elon at his word that he "really wanted something that’s like super-futuristic cyberpunk" and that the looks were inspired by a video game.
Yes, the first American auto company that was started in about hundred years had to overcome growing pains.

Yes, a company that already sells millions of cars and trucks has advantages of scale that a newcomer doesn't.

Which is why Tesla is actively looking for ways to do things differently. You can't overcome established players by doing things exactly like they do.

And it's being doing things differently with such success that that Ford now copies Tesla, with its Mustang Mach-E. Skateboard platform, large touchscreen, over the air updates. And, counterintuitively, in that it starts behind Tesla and has to play catch-up.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2019, 02:46:11 PM by GodlessCommie »

Herbert Derp

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1095
  • Age: 33
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #162 on: December 03, 2019, 02:55:56 PM »
So when Elon himself says he was motivated by looks (per my citations) are we to believe he's dishonest, or perhaps disingenuous?

Elon says stuff like this all the time. Look at his quote about the "dragon wings". Elon didn't just watch Game of Thrones one day and decide to put dragon wings on the Starship! This was a deliberate engineering decision motivated solely by finding a superior approach to landing and reentry. Elon and his engineering team determined that it was a better design to separate the landing legs and fins (the original design had them combined into three "fins" at the back which also doubled as landing legs), so they changed the design--and to get attention and look cool, Elon called the new fins "dragon wings" on a whim. In my eyes, this whole cyberpunk theme is more of the same.

And it's being doing things differently with such success that that Ford now copies Tesla, with its Mustang Mach-E. Skateboard platform, large touchscreen, over the air updates. And, counterintuitively, in that it starts behind Tesla and has to play catch-up.

Yeah, it's uncanny how the Mach-E copied Tesla in almost every way. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery!
« Last Edit: December 03, 2019, 03:05:53 PM by Herbert Derp »

Boofinator

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1429
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #163 on: December 03, 2019, 03:24:12 PM »
And it's being doing things differently with such success that that Ford now copies Tesla, with its Mustang Mach-E. Skateboard platform, large touchscreen, over the air updates. And, counterintuitively, in that it starts behind Tesla and has to play catch-up.

The skateboard platform for the battery pack has been the known solution to an EV vehicle since way before Tesla even existed. What Ford copied from Tesla was getting serious about EV production, which results in a dedicated chassis, which results in the skateboard rather than shoving batteries where an engine used to be.

FINate

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3114
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #164 on: December 03, 2019, 04:06:51 PM »
Yes, the first American auto company that was started in about hundred years had to overcome growing pains.

Yes, a company that already sells millions of cars and trucks has advantages of scale that a newcomer doesn't.

Which is why Tesla is actively looking for ways to do things differently. You can't overcome established players by doing things exactly like they do.

Agree, it's expected that Tesla would experience growing pains. I'm not trying to pick on Tesla here, but the reality is that they aren't building cars for 1919 or even the 1990s. If Tesla wants to be a mainstream car company then they will be held to modern car standards. Beyond a core base of Tesla fanatics (and there are some fiercely fanatical folks out there), they can't afford major quality problems because the typical consumer is very unforgiving.

Elon says stuff like this all the time. Look at his quote about the "dragon wings". Elon didn't just watch Game of Thrones one day and decide to put dragon wings on the Starship! This was a deliberate engineering decision motivated solely by finding a superior approach to landing and reentry. Elon and his engineering team determined that it was a better design to separate the landing legs and fins (the original design had them combined into three "fins" at the back which also doubled as landing legs), so they changed the design--and to get attention and look cool, Elon called the new fins "dragon wings" on a whim. In my eyes, this whole cyberpunk theme is more of the same.

Meh, there's a big difference between something inspiring an idea (wings) vs. "I really want a cyber looking truck". I don't own a Tesla or TSLA shares, but I've been cheering for Tesla from the sidelines and will likely buy an EV once the prices come down and the range increases. As a dispassionate outside observer, the "I want a cyber looking truck" explanation is more comforting. If you guys can convince me that the cyber exoskeleton is part of a master plan within Tesla to bend the cost curve and drive down costs across their product line then I may need to look into buying some TSLA puts.

Yeah, it's uncanny how the Mach-E copied Tesla in almost every way. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery!

And that's a good thing. Tesla paved the way for the first mass appeal EVs, and now other competitors are following suit.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2019, 04:26:50 PM by FINate »

Herbert Derp

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1095
  • Age: 33
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #165 on: December 03, 2019, 05:24:08 PM »
Meh, there's a big difference between something inspiring an idea (wings) vs. "I really want a cyber looking truck". I don't own a Tesla or TSLA shares, but I've been cheering for Tesla from the sidelines and will likely buy an EV once the prices come down and the range increases. As a dispassionate outside observer, the "I want a cyber looking truck" explanation is more comforting. If you guys can convince me that the cyber exoskeleton is part of a master plan within Tesla to bend the cost curve and drive down costs across their product line then I may need to look into buying some TSLA puts.

I think the writing is on the wall for this one. Elon has always been obsessed with reducing costs and increasing efficiencies through innovation. In fact, this was basically his business model for many of his companies from the start.

SpaceX:
https://www.airspacemag.com/space/is-spacex-changing-the-rocket-equation-132285884/

Boring Company:
https://www.teslarati.com/boring-company-cost-cutting-plan-boring-company-cheaper-faster-tunnel-digging/

When viewed in this light, Elon's plans for the "alien dreadnought" factory are just more of the same:
https://electrek.co/2016/09/15/elon-musk-confident-that-tesla-can-attain-staggering-20-fold-increase-in-production-speed-in-fremont/

Tesla even bought their own industrial engineering company to help them achieve this goal:
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/11/tesla-to-buy-engineering-firm-in-quest-for-machine-that-builds-the-machine/

If that's not enough to prove how obsessed Elon has always been about cutting costs and increasing efficiencies, here are some stories about how he used to live on $1 / day and personally reviewed 10% of all of Tesla's expenses. The guy is one of us!

I guess from my perspective, I don't see how the Cybertruck isn't part of Elon's master plan to drive down costs and increase efficiencies through technological innovation.

Even if the Cybertruck exoskeleton design doesn't work out, Tesla is hard at work with other similar innovations, all with this same goal in mind:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/07/23/tesla-files-patent-application-for-die-cast-unibody-machine/

https://electrek.co/2019/07/22/tesla-revolutionary-wiring-architecture-robots-model-y/

Hell, they're even trying to design more efficient windshield wipers:
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a29025844/tesla-patent-windshield-wiper-blades/
« Last Edit: December 03, 2019, 06:02:17 PM by Herbert Derp »

TomTX

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5345
  • Location: Texas
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #166 on: December 03, 2019, 07:10:03 PM »
my father's a painter & owns his own business.  He is now a 1 man shop.  He has used f150's for years.  He plans on buying this and welding a roof rack to the top as it is long enough to support the ladders he carries.  He is insanely excited at the prospect of dropping the tailgate ramp and walking up to get the ladder as (at his age) he needs to carry a separate ladder in his bed to get his working ladder (twice a day). 

He doesn't even need to weld. The bed has T-slots all over for mounting. Just needs some 80/20 rail, a saw and some fasteners.

Example: https://8020.net/

Kem

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 247
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #167 on: December 03, 2019, 07:28:37 PM »
That's amazing!  Good catch!  I'll share that with him tomorrow.  Much obliged

Herbert Derp

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1095
  • Age: 33
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #168 on: December 03, 2019, 08:17:00 PM »
That's amazing!  Good catch!  I'll share that with him tomorrow.  Much obliged

Here's another link that you might find interesting:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/cybertruck-bed-is-slotted-a-boon-for-diyers.175187/

MoneyQuirk

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 76
  • Location: South Carolina
  • Aspiring writer at www.moneyquirk.com
    • Money Quirk
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #169 on: December 03, 2019, 08:20:25 PM »
I think building publicity and enthusiasm is one of the first steps.

I almost wonder if the failed window was on purpose - look how many people are discussing and interested in it now.

Herbert Derp

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1095
  • Age: 33
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #170 on: December 03, 2019, 10:05:38 PM »
All discussion of the benefits of the exoskeleton design aside, I thought I would share my personal thoughts about the Cybertruck and why it is appealing to me as a consumer.

I've reached a point in my life where I need to start spending more money on things that make me happy, and the Cybertruck fits the bill. As a big sci-fi fan, I find the aesthetics of the Cybertruck to be unbelievably cool. It also reminds me of a Lamborghini, which I always wanted as a kid. I had actually been seriously considering buying a 2020 Tesla Roadster, for more or less the same reasons that I wanted the Lamborghini. The Tesla Roadster is far superior to the Lamborghini Huracan in terms of performance, seating, software, fuel economy, and storage space. Plus it's a convertible, which is cool as fuck. Even still, I was having issues justifying the practicality of such a purchase. $250,000 is a hell of a lot of money to spend on a car--and although it would be cool to take it to the track and give people rides in it, I don't see much utility in the Roadster beyond just driving people around. There are plenty of other downsides, too. I would be super nervous about leaving it parked somewhere, as people might key it or something. Also, just driving the thing around would be stressful, as I'd be constantly worrying about it getting scratched or dented or something.

So all in all, although I'd been kicking the idea around in my head for a while, it was unclear if I would actually buy the Roadster. Then I saw the Cybertruck. I think it looks even cooler than the Roadster. To be honest, the angular shape reminds me more of a Lamborghini than a Tesla, which is appealing to me. Also, the Cybertruck is huge and spacious inside, sitting six, and with the same beautiful sunroof design that the Model 3 has. This is unlike every other truck I've ever been in, which have felt cramped and claustrophobic inside. In fact, I had never even remotely considered buying a truck before until the Cybertruck came along. Where other trucks are cramped and claustrophobic, the Cybertruck is spacious. Where other trucks get poor fuel economy, the Cybertruck is all-electric, aerodynamic, and even has its own solar panels. Plus, the Cybertruck somehow manages to have the same 0-60 time as the Lamborghini Huracan! 2.9 seconds! Sure, the bulky Cybertruck has a lower top speed and I doubt it will handle like the Huracan, but it more than makes up for it in cost and functionality. Besides, one of the primary reasons for buying something like a Roadster or a Huracan is to turn heads and make an impression, and the Cybertruck does this in spades! Honestly, if a Cybertruck drove down the street right now, it would attract a crowd of onlookers. Not even a Lamborghini can do that! Not to mention that with that paintless, armored exterior, I wouldn't need to worry as much about it getting scratched or dented!

Now, about that functionality. The Cybertruck is so wonderfully spacious that I can easily take all of my friends and all their gear on road trips. Hiking, camping, picnics, you name it. The thing is so cool that they'll practically be begging me to take them for rides in it. I can also haul furniture and stuff with it, which is a plus. With the sports car like performance it has, I can also take it to the track and put the pedal to the metal. Fun! Not to mention the off-roading capabilities, electrical outlets, and solar panels. Truly, the Cybertruck is one of the ultimate camping vehicles. I can put a mattress in the back and camp in it, no pop-up tent attachment required. Plus, I'll have electrical outlets to power home appliances such as my laptop or an electrical grill. I could even bring a microwave with me! All the comforts of home and no setup required. Just park it somewhere and I'm done. I don't even have to worry as much about draining down the battery while camping, since I'll have solar panels.

Off-road camping in an electrical vehicle with solar panels also has unique possibilities. In theory, you could drive a Cybertruck hundreds of miles out into the wilderness until the batteries run dry, and just camp there for a few weeks, in which time the batteries would recharge from the solar panels assuming you pick an appropriate parking spot. Elon says the solar panel option for the bed cover should give you 15 miles of range per day, and there could be additional folding solar "wings" which could increase that to 30 or 40 miles a day. That's insane! With a vehicle like this, you could theoretically slow travel camp and explore all sorts of strange places.

I'm imagining myself camping off road in a Cybertruck in the middle of the wilderness, relaxing under the starry sky on my real, non-inflatable mattress, eating a microwave burrito from my mini fridge and watching Netflix on my laptop with my friends. On Starlink internet, of course. And my friends were able to set up their tent next to my truck, which had the space to haul it out there. Not to mention that if a bear comes along, the Cybertruck's armor will keep me safe. Can't say the same about my friends in the tent! Maybe the truck can make some bright lights and loud sounds to scare it off?

To summarize, the Cybertruck just does so much. It can seat six people and loads of cargo at the same time. You can commute with it or drive it on minor errands around town and still get good fuel economy. It comes with world class software and driver-assistance features. It is low maintenance. You can show it off to people and give rides in it. You can take it to the track. You can haul furniture in it. You can take it camping. You can take it off-road camping. You can take it off-road camping with your friends and their gear--and a microwave. It charges its own batteries if you park it outside. What other vehicle does all of this at the same time?

Breaking news - tesla has decided to scrap the accessories ATV in favour of a bed mounted large capacity generator.
Provides unlimited range and allows all day job-site tool use

@spartana One would hope the above is a joke

Tesla would be out of character encouraging the burning of fossil fuels as a crutch for a perceived shortcoming of EVs!
Yeah I figured that but you never know! Strap a big gas generator on the bed and you're good to go ;-). But I remember reading something about people charging (or trying to charge) Model 3 and S and other EV batteries with portable generators. Also using Teslas as portable generators if they lost electric power at home.

https://generatorgrid.com/blog/tesla/

"Teslas are not the only electric vehicles that you can charge with a portable generator in an emergency situation.

Other EVs like the Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf, for example, can also be charged by a gas-powered generator in a pinch."

@Spartana, perhaps Kem was referring to the solar panels on the back of the truck?
https://www.motor1.com/news/384123/solar-powered-cybertruck-added-range/
« Last Edit: December 03, 2019, 11:51:16 PM by Herbert Derp »

FINate

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3114
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #171 on: December 03, 2019, 10:52:49 PM »
@Herbert Derp Sounds like a great time. You and I have very different ideas about camping, but that's ok, do what makes you happy. Who knows, maybe we'll run into each other sometime in the forest, you with your cybertruck and sat TV and me with my boring truck and canvas tent w/ wood burning stove :)

PS Bears aren't interested in humans, they are interested in our food. Have your friends keep their food and all smelly stuff in the truck and they will be fine in a tent. Carry bear spray if there are aggressive/habituated bears around.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2019, 10:56:24 PM by FINate »

Herbert Derp

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1095
  • Age: 33
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #172 on: December 03, 2019, 11:11:10 PM »
Haha, I'm just too lazy. When I think about all the effort needed to set up a tent and air mattress, it makes me not want to camp. All that packing and unpacking... I would probably end up with my mattress, mini fridge, and microwave just sitting permanently in the back of the truck and only remove them if I needed to haul something big. The mini fridge and microwave would be kept unplugged when not in use and would need to be secured somehow, but that's about it.

BTW, here's another video of someone extolling the benefits of the Cybertruck design:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psXWyO32aWk

According to him, other auto manufacturers need to either copy Cybertruck or go bankrupt. I wouldn't go as far as to say that, but he does make many of the same points that I made.

For balance, here's another video which explains the downsides of the exoskeleton design when compared to a more configurable body-on-frame design, most of which have already been mentioned in this thread:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChvUTVe6F2k

I guess we'll just have to see if the pros of the exoskeleton design outweigh its cons? Personally, I believe that there is great potential in the new design and that it's absolutely worth a go at trying. After all, Tesla can just go back to regular old boring trucks if this one fails:
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-scares-tsla-shorts/
« Last Edit: December 03, 2019, 11:28:29 PM by Herbert Derp »

FINate

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3114
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #173 on: December 03, 2019, 11:30:04 PM »
The trick with truck camping is to keep all your gear organized in large totes (e.g. Action Packers). It takes me less than 30 minutes to pack for a trip (excluding getting all my food ready). Literally, just throw everything in the back! My canvas tent is an A-frame, essentially 2 poles and 6 stakes, takes about 10 minutes to set up. If I bring the wood stove that adds another 10 minutes. My air mattress is a self inflating Exped Megamat which mostly inflates on it's own.

Yeah, some of the Tesla fans are getting a little ahead of themselves. Tesla doesn't even have a production unit shipping to customers until at least 2021...a lot can change by then with other EV trucks coming to market.

Herbert Derp

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1095
  • Age: 33
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #174 on: December 03, 2019, 11:42:45 PM »
From someone who went from camping in a truck with a shell to a van I'll take a van every time now.  Or just use either to haul the glamping stuff for my fancy giant tent. Until Tesla builds a EV version of "Tank Girl's" tank that is ;-). BTW does the cybertruck come with a pass through window to get from the cab to the bed? No way I'm going outside to drive off when the zombie bears are out there!

Maybe the Cybertruck will be able to drive itself away from the zombie bears? In all seriousness, I could totally see Tesla introducing a "bear mode" similar to Sentry Mode which is designed to scare bears away!

Yeah, some of the Tesla fans are getting a little ahead of themselves. Tesla doesn't even have a production unit shipping to customers until at least 2021...a lot can change by then with other EV trucks coming to market.

I'm especially interested to see what Ford does with the electric F-150. I see that as being the only serious competitor to the Cybertruck for the time being. The Rivian R1T and Bollinger B1 / B2 are jokes--too expensive and less performance than the Cybertruck. Plus those startup companies still need to solve their own production and distribution hells before they can compete with the likes of Tesla and Ford.

Kem

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 247
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #175 on: December 04, 2019, 05:08:02 AM »
If the Ford e-150 easily seats 6 wide adults, recharges itself, has a body and frame that are essentially rustproof, dent resistant, high life motors, removes the excess of controls that now clutter the dash, has a tailgate that Ramps down, comes in AWD without requiring mechanical linkages, and promises FSD & an autonomous taxi service.... I would consider it as well.

If the FSD & Tesla network are ready by the time this is released.... I am curious if each owner can use it as a Uber akin business and automatically claim deductions (which occur in full in first year of ownership) - even if it is not used for any other business purpose.  That incentive would be huge.

Aside:  I was poking a bit of fun with the generator in the back.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2019, 05:12:58 AM by Kem »

Jon Bon

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1664
  • Location: Midwest
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #176 on: December 04, 2019, 07:50:02 AM »
Here is my hot take:

Tesla does not care if they don't sell to the construction trades at all. Let the big 3 keep the "white truck" market. Why? Because those are almost always stripper trucks that they make zero profit on. The trucks that they want to sell have the exact same guts, are painted a different color, have a few different pieces bolted on and cost twice as much are where they make their money.

There are only 2 reasons to even bother playing in the white truck fleet sales segment.

1. To spread out your fixed costs with higher volume
                      and
2. To export that ego/compensation/blue collar image to other product lines.


Now point #1 is somewhat valuable. But me thinks that Tesla is gonna have a wait list on these for years. So maybe in 5 years introduce fleet sales.  But point #2 it most definitely already has, but just in a different way. Its not a towing/hauling arms race that the big 3 compete in. Tesla has an entirely different value proposition. So Let the bro-dozers bro-doze. Tesla has no problem creating an emotional response to its products.

Have you noticed that the trucks in truck commercials (the top of the line 80k one) is actually NEVER the one you see on the actual job site? They are just selling you that macho image, if it was legit they would be advertising stripped out white trucks! For instance the ridgeline commercials so regular guys with regular jobs doing their weekend home depot runs. Of course it does not sell because its not nearly as manly as other trucks!


FINate

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3114
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #177 on: December 04, 2019, 07:50:15 AM »
I'm especially interested to see what Ford does with the electric F-150. I see that as being the only serious competitor to the Cybertruck for the time being. The Rivian R1T and Bollinger B1 / B2 are jokes--too expensive and less performance than the Cybertruck. Plus those startup companies still need to solve their own production and distribution hells before they can compete with the likes of Tesla and Ford.

I wouldn't write off Rivian just yet. Yes, expensive. But then Tesla sometimes announces prices that are a lower than reality. But also, the R1T is clearly aimed at the Overland crowed, and these folks are known for spending huge amounts. With a more traditional design (and nice interior) it can accomodate a shell and/or roof racks without welding brackets or building something in the bed that interferes with the tonneau cover. This means it can accomodate things like a Tepui.

Ford has invested in Rivian and is partnering with them on EV tech.

If the Ford e-150 easily seats 6 wide adults, recharges itself, has a body and frame that are essentially rustproof, dent resistant, high life motors, removes the excess of controls that now clutter the dash, has a tailgate that Ramps down, comes in AWD without requiring mechanical linkages, and promises FSD & an autonomous taxi service.... I would consider it as well.

If the FSD & Tesla network are ready by the time this is released.... I am curious if each owner can use it as a Uber akin business and automatically claim deductions (which occur in full in first year of ownership) - even if it is not used for any other business purpose.  That incentive would be huge.

Aside:  I was poking a bit of fun with the generator in the back.

The F-150 CrewCab already seats 6 adults and all new models have aluminum bodies which shed about 700 lbs. It still dents, but is cheaper to repair than steel. Will be interesting to see what kind of drivetrain they come up with for the EV F150 (E-150 is the Econoline Van). For off road I prefer a true 4WD over AWD, but so much depends on the details that I have to wait and see what they announce. Incidentally, since you inadvertently mentioned the Econoline, the E150 shares the same platform as the F150, so if the EV F150 sells well it's very possible that they will follow with an EV E150.

I do not care about FSD, would not put a truck into a taxi service fleet.  And I like a dash with buttons. I do not want to navigate a touch screen menu with no tactile feedback while driving. Don't mind having some lesser used things hidden behind a touch screen, but for most things give me buttons.

Much of this stuff comes down to knowing your customer. Some people will by a Cybertruck because they find the design appealing and they really care about 0-60 times and bullet resistance. Others will buy a R1T because they are really into overlanding and the shorter wheelbase and traditional bed appeals to them. Others will like Ford because it's familiar. In other words, the EV truck market will look very much like the IC truck market -- people will self sort into different brand identities.

FINate

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3114
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #178 on: December 04, 2019, 10:06:49 AM »
All of this has gotten me looking more closely at the R1T, which is being billed more as an outdoor adventure vehicle than a truck. I think they've nailed it.

Check out their camper concept which makes use of the side tunnel for the kitchen: https://www.motor1.com/news/350210/rivian-r1t-electric-camper-overland-expo/ Wow, very nice on many levels. Much nicer than Cybertruck's camper concept, which hangs off the back and appears to make use of a false floor in the bed...having to stow or climb over the kitchen to get in/out of the living area is a no-go. Plus built in integrated roof rack/rails for awkward gear and rooftop tents. Quad motor system should give greater control offroading (though waiting to see how this works in practice). And the size (shorter wheelbase, not as large as F150 or the Cybertruck) will make it more usable on narrow dirt roads. Over 3 foot wading depth -- if you've ever forded streams you'll know why this is a big deal. Large frunk looks to accomodate a cooler along with assorted other dry foods -- the ability to have all your food and kitchen easily stowed in sealed/locking compartments (that are not in your sleeping area!) is a huge bonus in bear country. Of course, price is the major downside. But for those looking for something specifically tailored for overland use, this thing is pretty awesome.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2019, 10:27:20 AM by FINate »

MilesTeg

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1363
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #179 on: December 04, 2019, 10:55:02 AM »
All discussion of the benefits of the exoskeleton design aside, I thought I would share my personal thoughts about the Cybertruck and why it is appealing to me as a consumer.

I've reached a point in my life where I need to start spending more money on things that make me happy, and the Cybertruck fits the bill. As a big sci-fi fan, I find the aesthetics of the Cybertruck to be unbelievably cool. It also reminds me of a Lamborghini, which I always wanted as a kid. I had actually been seriously considering buying a 2020 Tesla Roadster, for more or less the same reasons that I wanted the Lamborghini. The Tesla Roadster is far superior to the Lamborghini Huracan in terms of performance, seating, software, fuel economy, and storage space. Plus it's a convertible, which is cool as fuck. Even still, I was having issues justifying the practicality of such a purchase. $250,000 is a hell of a lot of money to spend on a car--and although it would be cool to take it to the track and give people rides in it, I don't see much utility in the Roadster beyond just driving people around. There are plenty of other downsides, too. I would be super nervous about leaving it parked somewhere, as people might key it or something. Also, just driving the thing around would be stressful, as I'd be constantly worrying about it getting scratched or dented or something.

So all in all, although I'd been kicking the idea around in my head for a while, it was unclear if I would actually buy the Roadster. Then I saw the Cybertruck. I think it looks even cooler than the Roadster. To be honest, the angular shape reminds me more of a Lamborghini than a Tesla, which is appealing to me. Also, the Cybertruck is huge and spacious inside, sitting six, and with the same beautiful sunroof design that the Model 3 has. This is unlike every other truck I've ever been in, which have felt cramped and claustrophobic inside. In fact, I had never even remotely considered buying a truck before until the Cybertruck came along. Where other trucks are cramped and claustrophobic, the Cybertruck is spacious. Where other trucks get poor fuel economy, the Cybertruck is all-electric, aerodynamic, and even has its own solar panels. Plus, the Cybertruck somehow manages to have the same 0-60 time as the Lamborghini Huracan! 2.9 seconds! Sure, the bulky Cybertruck has a lower top speed and I doubt it will handle like the Huracan, but it more than makes up for it in cost and functionality. Besides, one of the primary reasons for buying something like a Roadster or a Huracan is to turn heads and make an impression, and the Cybertruck does this in spades! Honestly, if a Cybertruck drove down the street right now, it would attract a crowd of onlookers. Not even a Lamborghini can do that! Not to mention that with that paintless, armored exterior, I wouldn't need to worry as much about it getting scratched or dented!

Now, about that functionality. The Cybertruck is so wonderfully spacious that I can easily take all of my friends and all their gear on road trips. Hiking, camping, picnics, you name it. The thing is so cool that they'll practically be begging me to take them for rides in it. I can also haul furniture and stuff with it, which is a plus. With the sports car like performance it has, I can also take it to the track and put the pedal to the metal. Fun! Not to mention the off-roading capabilities, electrical outlets, and solar panels. Truly, the Cybertruck is one of the ultimate camping vehicles. I can put a mattress in the back and camp in it, no pop-up tent attachment required. Plus, I'll have electrical outlets to power home appliances such as my laptop or an electrical grill. I could even bring a microwave with me! All the comforts of home and no setup required. Just park it somewhere and I'm done. I don't even have to worry as much about draining down the battery while camping, since I'll have solar panels.

Off-road camping in an electrical vehicle with solar panels also has unique possibilities. In theory, you could drive a Cybertruck hundreds of miles out into the wilderness until the batteries run dry, and just camp there for a few weeks, in which time the batteries would recharge from the solar panels assuming you pick an appropriate parking spot. Elon says the solar panel option for the bed cover should give you 15 miles of range per day, and there could be additional folding solar "wings" which could increase that to 30 or 40 miles a day. That's insane! With a vehicle like this, you could theoretically slow travel camp and explore all sorts of strange places.

I'm imagining myself camping off road in a Cybertruck in the middle of the wilderness, relaxing under the starry sky on my real, non-inflatable mattress, eating a microwave burrito from my mini fridge and watching Netflix on my laptop with my friends. On Starlink internet, of course. And my friends were able to set up their tent next to my truck, which had the space to haul it out there. Not to mention that if a bear comes along, the Cybertruck's armor will keep me safe. Can't say the same about my friends in the tent! Maybe the truck can make some bright lights and loud sounds to scare it off?

To summarize, the Cybertruck just does so much. It can seat six people and loads of cargo at the same time. You can commute with it or drive it on minor errands around town and still get good fuel economy. It comes with world class software and driver-assistance features. It is low maintenance. You can show it off to people and give rides in it. You can take it to the track. You can haul furniture in it. You can take it camping. You can take it off-road camping. You can take it off-road camping with your friends and their gear--and a microwave. It charges its own batteries if you park it outside. What other vehicle does all of this at the same time?

So, you want a cool toy to show off with and do some glamping; you're not concerned with high utility. That's cool (seriously, enjoy!).

A question though. When was the last time you looked at a full size truck? How in the world do you call that "cramped and claustrophobic"? A 4 door full size truck is /enormous/! At 6'5" they are still spacious (back or front).

As to the other functionalities you speak of, every modern full size truck has all of those capabilities (and for most do it a lot better).

As to "self charging", Musk is once again over promising on capabilities.

A Model S takes about 300wH (0.3KwH) to go 1mi. The cybertruck, being significantly heavier, will require significantly more wH/mi. Load it up close to its capacity with gear and you're talking close to 500wH/mi. But lets use 300kW/mi.

You can probably fit enough solar panel on the cybertruck to get about 300w (under ideal conditions -- new panel; low latitude; perfectly clean; full, direct sun). That translates to 1mi/hour (12 per average day) under ideal conditions. But, of course, ideal conditions don't exist. Homes, which can at least always have an optimized placement of panels for part of the day, typically get the equivalent of about 4 hours of use per day. This translates into about 4mi a day assuming you can orient the panel as well as those on houses. With a loaded cybertruck in cold weather that could be as little as 1-2mi a day.

FINate

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3114
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #180 on: December 04, 2019, 11:12:56 AM »
Im a big fan of roof top tents attached to flat truck toppers and shells like the Flip Pac (with direct access from the interior to the roof tent). Almost got one for my Ranger but didn't. Not sure the Cybertruck is designed for that but the camping hordes would find that appealing. As well as the ability to put on a full in-bed slide-in camper that can be easily removed. I'm more of a minimalist tent camper but it's nice to have some comforts lime a larger fully enclosed camper shell or Flip Pac if campi g full time or long term.
https://www.therangerstation.com/overlanding-and-off-road/flippac-camper/

Oh my, that flippac is incredible! Imagine something like that on a R1T. Throw a retractable awning on the side with the kitchen pullout for weather/sun protection, and also a solar shower on top to provide hot water for washing dishes. With the large funk and covered topper on back pretty sure I could get all my gear in. The electric cooker is super nice, no more messing with propane tanks!

Dang, stupid thread! I don't need a $70k vehicle, but now I want one :) I drive so little that my current truck should last well more than 10 years...must resist urge to buy expensive things I don't need... 

neo von retorch

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4918
  • Location: SE PA
    • Fi@retorch - personal finance tracking
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #181 on: December 04, 2019, 12:56:45 PM »
How much larger are the batteries?

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/11/24/tesla-cybertruck-battery-price-dive/
Quote
a battery that would be minimally 87.75 kWh for the base model Cybertruck

That is to say, for 250 mile range. Double that for the 500 mile model.

The Leaf offers 40 to 62 kwh batteries. So we're talking about a 40% to 400% increase depending on the comparison you wish to make.

FINate

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3114
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #182 on: December 04, 2019, 03:35:50 PM »
Lol I'm the opposite - after this thread I now don't want anything large or expensive that comes with all sorts of doo-dads I don't need. It all makes me want to go carless. Or at least look into a hybrid or electric mini-van like a Transit Connect.

Hah, I hear ya. My preferred camping is backpacking, but this is roughing it a bit too much for DW. I love getting the family out camping so having some creature comforts is a good compromise for us, and also works well for the camp-as-we-go road trips we do. Much of my backpacking involves long hikes in at altitude and at least one night at the trailhead to acclimate is helpful, so the convenience if quick and easy setup/teardown would also be useful for this.

Alas, not going to splurge on anything at this point. Maybe in 10 years the issues will be ironed out and prices will have come down.

HBFIRE

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1311
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Huntington Beach, CA
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #183 on: December 04, 2019, 04:58:36 PM »
but didn't because it would have made the doors too heavy. Since when is bullet resistance a reasonable feature, who needs this?



Hardly anyone, but that's missing the point.  Tesla is a great marketing machine, this is yet another angle to get marketing hype.  The entire presentation used emotional angles to raise the hype.  The average person is thinking: A "bullet proof" truck?  Wow, that thing must be indestructable!  That's what I want in my truck!  It must be able to handle any kind of rocks when I offroad it!  Admittedly, I'm finding myself drawn in by this.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2019, 05:00:42 PM by HBFIRE »

HBFIRE

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1311
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Huntington Beach, CA
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #184 on: December 04, 2019, 05:02:02 PM »
Im a big fan of roof top tents attached to flat truck toppers and shells like the Flip Pac (with direct access from the interior to the roof tent). Almost got one for my Ranger but didn't. Not sure the Cybertruck is designed for that but the camping hordes would find that appealing. As well as the ability to put on a full in-bed slide-in camper that can be easily removed. I'm more of a minimalist tent camper but it's nice to have some comforts lime a larger fully enclosed camper shell or Flip Pac if campi g full time or long term.
https://www.therangerstation.com/overlanding-and-off-road/flippac-camper/

I agree with you.  "Overlanding" is becoming a big fad right now, and it's pretty obvious the cybertruck is going after this demographic.

HBFIRE

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1311
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Huntington Beach, CA
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #185 on: December 04, 2019, 05:04:46 PM »
Here is my hot take:

Tesla does not care if they don't sell to the construction trades at all. Let the big 3 keep the "white truck" market. Why? Because those are almost always stripper trucks that they make zero profit on. The trucks that they want to sell have the exact same guts, are painted a different color, have a few different pieces bolted on and cost twice as much are where they make their money.


Not sure I agree.  1) The Truck market is massive.  2) relative to the overall car market, it's very profitable.  3)  For Tesla to compete with the big autos, it needs to do big volume - the car industry is all about huge volume at not a very high profit margin, that's always been the name of the game -- getting into the truck market is definitely a way to achieve that.

Herbert Derp

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1095
  • Age: 33
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #186 on: December 04, 2019, 05:34:46 PM »
So, you want a cool toy to show off with and do some glamping; you're not concerned with high utility. That's cool (seriously, enjoy!).

A question though. When was the last time you looked at a full size truck? How in the world do you call that "cramped and claustrophobic"? A 4 door full size truck is /enormous/! At 6'5" they are still spacious (back or front).

As to the other functionalities you speak of, every modern full size truck has all of those capabilities (and for most do it a lot better).

It's true that I haven't been in a full size four door truck before. All the trucks I've ever been in were either two door trucks, or four doors but the rear doors were smaller. In both cases, the rear row seats were either cramped or nonexistent. My least favorite rear seating in a truck was one of my aunt's old two door trucks. It had these tiny little sideways seats in the rear row that made me feel queasy when the truck was in motion! Other trucks I've been in felt cramped even in the first row. They had all this "stuff" in between the front two seats, like a giant gear shifter, cupholders, etc. The Cybertruck on the other hand just has this minimalist compartment thingy that can fold up into a third seat.

Regarding the other functionalities, can a regular full size truck go 0-60 in 2.9 seconds? Will it get anywhere close to the fuel economy of the Cybertruck? Will it require oil changes and other ICE related maintenance? Does it come with adaptive air suspension? Does it have electrical outlets that can run without a noisy engine spewing noxious fumes? Does it have solar panels?

I think you kind of hit the nail on the head with your first sentence. I'm not a truck person. I never liked trucks and still think that in general they are bulky, hideous, dirty, and unnecessary machines, puffed up with crude masculinity and false bravado. Personally, I always liked supercars and military vehicles. I like vehicles that know they are powerful, not ones that puff themselves up and pretend to be more powerful than they are--vehicles that anyone can take one glance at and feel, wow that thing means business! As a child, I had a huge collection of diecast scale model cars, mostly Lamborghinis. That's what I think is cool, and that's the kind of thing I'm looking for in a vehicle. To me, the Cybertruck is like a giant sports car--not a truck at all!

As to "self charging", Musk is once again over promising on capabilities.

A Model S takes about 300wH (0.3KwH) to go 1mi. The cybertruck, being significantly heavier, will require significantly more wH/mi. Load it up close to its capacity with gear and you're talking close to 500wH/mi. But lets use 300kW/mi.

You can probably fit enough solar panel on the cybertruck to get about 300w (under ideal conditions -- new panel; low latitude; perfectly clean; full, direct sun). That translates to 1mi/hour (12 per average day) under ideal conditions. But, of course, ideal conditions don't exist. Homes, which can at least always have an optimized placement of panels for part of the day, typically get the equivalent of about 4 hours of use per day. This translates into about 4mi a day assuming you can orient the panel as well as those on houses. With a loaded cybertruck in cold weather that could be as little as 1-2mi a day.

BTW, here's a more detailed analysis of the solar panels:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAU01vhHMPw

I get your point about the ideal conditions thing. But 4-5 miles a day is still good IMO. It should be more than enough to power my laptop and appliances.

I wouldn't write off Rivian just yet. Yes, expensive. But then Tesla sometimes announces prices that are a lower than reality. But also, the R1T is clearly aimed at the Overland crowed, and these folks are known for spending huge amounts. With a more traditional design (and nice interior) it can accomodate a shell and/or roof racks without welding brackets or building something in the bed that interferes with the tonneau cover. This means it can accomodate things like a Tepui.

Ford has invested in Rivian and is partnering with them on EV tech.

All of this has gotten me looking more closely at the R1T, which is being billed more as an outdoor adventure vehicle than a truck. I think they've nailed it.

Check out their camper concept which makes use of the side tunnel for the kitchen: https://www.motor1.com/news/350210/rivian-r1t-electric-camper-overland-expo/ Wow, very nice on many levels. Much nicer than Cybertruck's camper concept, which hangs off the back and appears to make use of a false floor in the bed...having to stow or climb over the kitchen to get in/out of the living area is a no-go. Plus built in integrated roof rack/rails for awkward gear and rooftop tents. Quad motor system should give greater control offroading (though waiting to see how this works in practice). And the size (shorter wheelbase, not as large as F150 or the Cybertruck) will make it more usable on narrow dirt roads. Over 3 foot wading depth -- if you've ever forded streams you'll know why this is a big deal. Large frunk looks to accomodate a cooler along with assorted other dry foods -- the ability to have all your food and kitchen easily stowed in sealed/locking compartments (that are not in your sleeping area!) is a huge bonus in bear country. Of course, price is the major downside. But for those looking for something specifically tailored for overland use, this thing is pretty awesome.

Those do look like good offroading / camping specs and options. The main reasons why I prefer the Cybertruck over the R1T is that the Cybertruck is cheaper and has a bed large enough to just put a mattress inside without needing any complicated tent setup. I also think that the Cybertruck will probably have better software.

Plus, there's just no getting around that in my eyes the Cybertruck looks like a giant sports car crossed with a military vehicle (in other words, awesome) while the R1T is just another boring ugly truck. Truck stuff aside, I still don't like how the R1T looks. Like the Bollinger trucks, it seems to be marketed to the pretentious yuppie crowd. I've always been a minimalist who thumbs his nose to sophistication. My ideal kind of vehicle screams raw power and unapologetically favors function over form. The Cybertruck ticks all these boxes for me. It's a hulking, angular, yet somehow sleek wall of hardened stainless steel and armored glass, hurtling inexorably through space at nearly 1 g. The Cybertruck doesn't give a fuck what you think of it--it means business!
« Last Edit: December 04, 2019, 06:53:54 PM by Herbert Derp »

FINate

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3114
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #187 on: December 04, 2019, 06:22:51 PM »
Plus, there's just no getting around that in my eyes the Cybertruck looks like a giant sports car crossed with a military vehicle (in other words, awesome) while the R1T is just another boring ugly truck. Truck stuff aside, I still don't like how the R1T looks. Like the Bollinger trucks, it seems to be marketed to the pretentious yuppie crowd. I've always been a minimalist who thumbs his nose to sophistication. My ideal kind of vehicle screams raw power and and unapologetically favors function over form. The Cybertruck ticks all these boxes for me.

Well, the pretentious yuppie crowd is where the money is, which is why Tesla got their start targeting this end of the market. The Cybertruck still looks hideous to me, has not "grown" on me, but I'm not a huge fan of the R1T looks either. However the looks aren't that important to me. Every vehicle is a tradeoff, I suppose we value different functionality.

FINate

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3114
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #188 on: December 04, 2019, 06:33:37 PM »
...this is yet another angle to get marketing hype.

No argument here.

PathtoFIRE

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 873
  • Age: 44
  • Location: San Diego
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #189 on: December 05, 2019, 10:31:02 AM »
Not sure I agree.  1) The Truck market is massive.  2) relative to the overall car market, it's very profitable.  3)  For Tesla to compete with the big autos, it needs to do big volume - the car industry is all about huge volume at not a very high profit margin, that's always been the name of the game -- getting into the truck market is definitely a way to achieve that.

I've heard this truism before, cars are low margin, trucks are high margin, but by trucks, I've always heard it as SUVs more than pickups, and here we are talking about honest-to-god pickup trucks, so does that still hold? And back to the larger point, I can see certain narrow segments confirming this truism (like maybe econoboxes have low margins, and high end SUVs and trucks have high margins), but I could make the opposing rationale that high end sedans and sports cars are high margin, and a large % of trucks ("white" trucks alluded to above, and basic level trucks for the market segment that wants to fancy trucks but can't afford, and buy the heavily marked down pickups you always seen advertised) must be relatively low margin.

So I guess what I'm asking this esteemed group is whether there is recent data somewhere to support this truism? And if so, why does it persist, the car market unlike many others seems to still retain a good number of large international competitors, you'd think others would rush in to this goldmine and margins would drop.

BTW, since I'm delurking on this thread, I'll note that I've only owned cars (currently a Leaf, though wife has a Highlander), I'm attracted to flashy SUVs and pickups (I've lusted after the truck from Back to the Future since I was a kid), I do literally zero work, professionally or personally, that requires these things, I was this close to preordering a Rivian earlier this year as a gift to myself for getting a great new job (the SUV verson coming in 2021), and I at first hated the Cybertruck, but it's starting to grow on me (maybe because many people around me own Model 3s, and I just like the mental image of crushing those in something that looks like a tank).

FINate

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3114
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #190 on: December 05, 2019, 10:45:00 AM »
So I guess what I'm asking this esteemed group is whether there is recent data somewhere to support this truism? And if so, why does it persist, the car market unlike many others seems to still retain a good number of large international competitors, you'd think others would rush in to this goldmine and margins would drop.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-results/high-margin-pickup-trucks-drive-gm-profit-shares-rise-idUSKCN1PV1KV
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-autos-sales-trucks-analysis/detroit-three-ready-for-2019-rumble-over-lucrative-pickup-trucks-idUSKCN1OX1V7

Estimates are $10k-$17k profit per unit, which is a very healthy margin. As I understand it, the strategy is to sell a very large number of white trucks (fleet vehicles), and this enables economies of scale. They make a profit on fleet vehicles, but margins are much lower. These aren't just the plain white pickups you see around, but also other commercial vehicles that use the same chassis and drivetrain. This lowers the production costs for the non-commercial vehicles, many of which share the same platform (pickups, SUVs, vans). The reason BOF persists is not because the traditional automakers are stodgy and unimaginative, it is in fact functionality over form (yes, I'm intentionally inverting the same talking points as the Cybertruck fans).

neo von retorch

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4918
  • Location: SE PA
    • Fi@retorch - personal finance tracking
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #191 on: December 05, 2019, 11:07:45 AM »
The way I imagine it works is that companies like the big four in trucks have done the research and have the facilities to crank out the bodies, frames and components, as well as have the established supply chain for all the parts they don't produce themselves. Given the huge investments to get to this point means that they need volume to distribute the costs among units, and once you reach that point, the marginal cost of producing an additional unit leaves a large margin for higher trim levels. The fancy suspensions and electronic doodads don't cost as much as the markup on those, so there's profit. But to get to the point where you have all of the accumulated knowledge and systems in place such that production at volume is profitable is a massive (expensive risky) undertaking.

Toyota had already established itself as a major player in both light cars and light pickups (Tacoma) when it took on building the T100/Tundra (over 20 years ago), and even with all of their resources, they are still a distance fourth in full-sized pickup truck sales. Toyota sells fewer Tundra units in a year than Ford, GM and Dodge sell each quarter.

So that brings us to the Cybertruck. Tesla has nowhere near the resources of Toyota, but they have had the most success in building, selling and scaling electric vehicles. From here, we can argue until we are blue in the face, but we've got some time before they are actually sold, the prices with the various options are rolled in, and we finally see what sales and production numbers look like.

In Q3 2019, Ford sold over 214,000 F150s. Tesla sold over 46,000 Model 3s (over 8,000 less than they sold in Q3 2018.) I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that unless Tesla massively over-delivers on value, greatly improves their production capacity, and begins to sell varieties of trucks to meet buyers needs and wants based on not only raw acceleration and storage, but looks and customization, they will not shift this market monumentally. Just for a little more context, consider this 2016 article about how much you can customize an F150: https://blog.consumerguide.com/how-many-different-ways-are-there-to-build-an-f-150-would-you-believe-2-billion/

GodlessCommie

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 969
  • Location: NoVA
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #192 on: December 05, 2019, 11:42:32 AM »
Not sure I agree.  1) The Truck market is massive.  2) relative to the overall car market, it's very profitable.  3)  For Tesla to compete with the big autos, it needs to do big volume - the car industry is all about huge volume at not a very high profit margin, that's always been the name of the game -- getting into the truck market is definitely a way to achieve that.
Yes, the truck market is massive, lucrative, and very much worth attention. And one way to succeed in a massive and saturated market is "land and expand" - find a niche, become a dominant player in it, start gobbling up adjacent segments. You don't have to start with a product that's all things to all people - you start with *a* product that sells, and then either have it evolve or create additional products for additional segments.

And this is where "origami process" may become invaluable, allowing more variations and faster response to market demand.

As for segments of the truck market... I agree with FINate, the "white truck" segment is vital for legacy automakers. I have massively more respect for people who buy "white trucks" than for people who use truck as luxury cars. But if I have a truck to sell, I'd rather sell it to the latter group. The pros care about nothing but value. Suburban dads, on the other hand, spend tons of money on things that boost margins. So if you start anywhere, start with them.

And good point by neo von retorch on Toyota entering the market late and making only a moderate headway in 20 years (Honda even less). But Toyota tried to essentially do the same thing as Ford/GM/Ram, only better. If anything, it shows the futility of that approach. Honda tried something different (unibody), but it's not radically different, and from a casual user's standpoint barely noticeable. We obviously disagree on the wisdom of Tesla's move, but I think we all agree that it's not trying to retrace Toyota's steps, and that its approach is way more radical than Honda's.

neo von retorch

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4918
  • Location: SE PA
    • Fi@retorch - personal finance tracking
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #193 on: December 05, 2019, 11:52:24 AM »
We obviously disagree on the wisdom of Tesla's move, but I think we all agree that it's not trying to retrace Toyota's steps, and that its approach is way more radical than Honda's.

Well, I think sales wise, this approach will see sales not unlike the Ridgeline (but hopefully closer to the Tundra). But I agree that they will make more of a mental impact than Toyota. They will show that this is what a truck can be. It doesn't need to sell in large quantities, because (from what I've read) this has never been what Elon Musk is about. Yes, he's been a successful businessman in a variety of fields. But that's not his goal. He really wants to change the world (Written by an admitted Musk fan). So as long as the truck can be purchased by a few hundred thousand interested parties, and it does what it claims it can do, it will have proven that electric trucks can really be a thing, and they could probably even be profitable. But Tesla will never dominate the full-sized truck market. (Using the word "never" sets me up for failure, but I'm arguing on the internet, so I'll go out on that limb!)

GodlessCommie

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 969
  • Location: NoVA
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #194 on: December 05, 2019, 12:02:35 PM »
In Q3 2019, Ford sold over 214,000 F150s. Tesla sold over 46,000 Model 3s (over 8,000 less than they sold in Q3 2018.)
In Q3 2019, Tesla sold 79,600 Model 3s vs 55,840 in Q3 2018, a 42% boost YoY.

https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q3-2018-vehicle-production-and-deliveries
https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q3-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries

I'm too lazy to check, but I suspect you were looking at the US market. And at the moment, there are more lucrative markets (read: incentives) to send cars to.

I agree with you, I don't think Cybertruck will ever dominate the truck market. It will have a loyal following (maybe even among some tradespeople), it will boost Tesla in a meaningful way, hopefully it will affect the market as a whole. But as others have said, the current truck form is a result of a long evolution and exists for a reason. Traditional truck will continue to dominate - but hopefully more of them will be electric.

neo von retorch

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4918
  • Location: SE PA
    • Fi@retorch - personal finance tracking
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #195 on: December 05, 2019, 12:28:48 PM »
Correct - U.S. sales. But we're talking about pickup trucks; that's the market that matters 😉

lemonlyman

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 424
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #196 on: December 05, 2019, 12:39:21 PM »
Toyota had already established itself as a major player in both light cars and light pickups (Tacoma) when it took on building the T100/Tundra (over 20 years ago), and even with all of their resources, they are still a distance fourth in full-sized pickup truck sales. Toyota sells fewer Tundra units in a year than Ford, GM and Dodge sell each quarter.

One of the reasons trucks are a profit center for GM, Fiat Chrysler and Ford for decades is that imported trucks have a tariff called the chicken tax. While a lot of foreign owned companies like Toyota manufacture the Tacoma in the US now to avoid the tariff, they still use domestic labor for the most part so can't compete on price like they can with imported sedans. This has kept the truck market pretty well protected for American companies compared to other auto segments. Of course, NAFTA circumvented the chicken tax so Ford, Toyota, GM, etc moved some truck manufacturing to Canada and Mexico.

Tesla is an American company manufacturing in the US. That helps with brand.

FINate

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3114
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #197 on: December 05, 2019, 01:20:18 PM »
New details about the EV F150: https://www.motortrend.com/news/electric-ford-f-150-detailed-patent

Basically, modular battery units mounted via crossmembers on the frame. Means BOF design, potentially sharing body and other non-IC components with the rest of the product line. May also mean longer beds can be utilized to increase range. Looking forward to hearing performance and price points in the future. The flexibility of BOF and compatibility with third-party modifications/add-ons would be very interesting if offered as a fleet vehicle, especially if they can get decent range (say 300 mi) on a traditional design factor.

With this and the Mach-E coming to market soon it appears Ford is finally making a real push into EVs. Looking forward to watching the auto companies battle it out in the coming years, hopefully there will be some really great options and value in the next decade or so.

CowboyAndIndian

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1934
  • Location: NJ, USA
    • KOWines: Deep discount wine/spirits store.
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #198 on: December 05, 2019, 01:29:25 PM »
I think the writing is on the wall for this one. Elon has always been obsessed with reducing costs and increasing efficiencies through innovation. In fact, this was basically his business model for many of his companies from the start.

SpaceX:
https://www.airspacemag.com/space/is-spacex-changing-the-rocket-equation-132285884/


Thanks, @Herbert Derp.

That first link is from January 2012. Not from 2019, but 2012. Please read it and see the same FUD that doubters had for SpaceX.
The skeptical questions of how you could not get low cost and high reliability, the quality issues they were going to face, the inability of a startup to launch 15 or 20 times a year. Now, think about 2019. SpaceX launched 19 Falcon-9's and recovered the majority of the first stage rockets. Reliability is high, Quality is high and the cost is 30-40% of the cost of other launchers.

Does this remind you of critics (and TSLA shorters) who have been spreading FUD about Tesla cars?

Call me Tesla-fan-boy if you want. He has shown time and again that he delivers. With his track record, I fully expect the truck will not just survive but thrive!

« Last Edit: December 05, 2019, 01:40:22 PM by CowboyAndIndian »

Herbert Derp

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1095
  • Age: 33
Re: The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck
« Reply #199 on: December 05, 2019, 04:36:52 PM »
Thanks, @Herbert Derp.

That first link is from January 2012. Not from 2019, but 2012. Please read it and see the same FUD that doubters had for SpaceX.
The skeptical questions of how you could not get low cost and high reliability, the quality issues they were going to face, the inability of a startup to launch 15 or 20 times a year. Now, think about 2019. SpaceX launched 19 Falcon-9's and recovered the majority of the first stage rockets. Reliability is high, Quality is high and the cost is 30-40% of the cost of other launchers.

Does this remind you of critics (and TSLA shorters) who have been spreading FUD about Tesla cars?

Yeah, it's a fantastic article, especially reading it eight years later after SpaceX achieved what they set out to do.

Here's one quote which especially stood out to me:
Quote
Musk, who is SpaceX’s chief designer as well as its CEO, is involved in virtually every technical decision. “I know my rocket inside out and backward,” he says. “I can tell you the heat treating temper of the skin material, where it changes, why we chose that material, the welding technique…down to the gnat’s ass.” And he pushes his people to do more than they think is possible. “There were times when I thought he was off his rocker,” Mueller confesses. “When I first met him, he said, ‘How much do you think we can get the cost of an engine down, compared to what you were predicting they’d cost at TRW?’ I said, ‘Oh, probably a factor of three.’ He said, ‘We need a factor of 10.’ I thought, ‘That’s kind of crazy.’ But in the end, we’re closer to his number!”

In 2019, we have actual numbers now. Let's see how it turned out...
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/05/spacex-raptor-engine-will-be-best-on-cost-and-nearly-best-on-isp.html

The best comparison is between the Aerojet Rocketdyne RS-25 engine which was formerly used in the Space Shuttle and which will be used in the SLS and the SpaceX Raptor engine which will be used in Starship and Super Heavy.

Aerojet Rocketdyne RS-25 Engine
Total Thrust: 1.86 MN
Thrust : Weight: 73 : 1
Chamber Pressure: 206 bar
Price: >$50MM

SpaceX Raptor Engine
Total Thrust: 2.0 MN
Thrust : Weight: 107 : 1
Chamber Pressure: 270 bar
Price: ~$2MM

Both engines are designed for reuse, by the way. But for some reason, NASA plans for the RS-25 to be expendable in the SLS. As if Elon would have allowed SpaceX to make such a boneheaded decision!

So they didn't get the cost of an engine down by a factor of three, and not by a factor of ten either. They did it by a factor of twenty-five! And Elon intends to drive the cost of the Raptor engine down even further!

Quote
SpaceX Merlin engine costs less than $1 million. Elon has said SpaceX produce the Raptor for cheaper than or close to the Merlin engine in later simplified Raptor versions. Tim estimates current Raptors at $2 million.

This is the kind of innovation that Elon is bringing to the auto industry. Honestly, the legacy automakers should be pretty nervous by now.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2019, 08:43:29 PM by Herbert Derp »

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!