The Squandered Opportunity of the Cybertruck

[Here4theGB]

People seem to forget that a ton of these companies build small trucks that are sold all over the world, just not the US.  The Ford Ranger (or whatever it's called around the world) has never gone out of production, they just stopped selling them here until recently.  Murican's don't want small trucks, they want to roll coal.

[librarianlibrarian]

At first I was a bit shocked and rather expected Elon to hit the truck with a sledgehammer and make the sides fall off, revealing some sleek Model S looking truck underneath.

After thinking about it more, I just think he is taking us to the future a bit faster than we are used to going.   Some of the features in this truck (the built in inverter for tools/equipment, air suspension for lowering/raising truck for loading and fuel efficiency, built in loading ramp, 3mm steel skin which negates ever needing body panel repairs from door dings) should have already been in modern vehicles.

I think this post from wallstreetbets 69SassyPoptarts sums it up:

"dude’s a fucking genius and I short TSLA all the time. You ever see Star Wars and shit? They’re not driving the kind of vehicles we’re driving today, they’re driving shit like this. Elon’s just skipping 2,000 years of car evolution and bringing us to 4020 let the man live"

The opening credits of the first star wars movie is '"A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away.'

[Just Joe]

I figure Tesla is selling a truck for the ski boat/ATV/big boy toy customers who want to show off a little at the local play grounds and beer spots.

Even with a 500 mile range if it tows like the Model X tested on YouTube it'll use 7 times more power which gives it only a ~70 mile range in the mountains. Far enough to get to the lake and the trails but not to cross the wide open spaces out west towing an RV.

I can't imagine the country boys I know will warm up to a Tesla truck for a little while. Change happens slowly with some of them. First the ones I know can't afford it. Secondly Tesla is a complicated topic laden with conversational hand grenades like global warming, liberal politics, and rich people.

[TomTX]

But, this thing looks impractical for actually being a working truck. 

For some things, absolutely. Not going to build a bucket truck on this, nor oen of those nothing-but-toolboxes trucks.

But lets look at your specific concerns.

With a short bed ( 6.5') you can't even get a sheet of plywood or 8' 2x4 in the thing. 

Sorry to be the one to break this to you, but the vast majority of pickups sold in the USA today don't have an 8' bed. Ford, RAM, whatever. 6.5" is actually slightly above the mean from what I've been able to find out.

But on the practicality side - it's super easy to load sheet goods like plywood. Drop the tailgate, load a couple dozen sheets of ply from the back, ratchet them down* and go. Won't even overhang the tailgate. This method is used nearly universally by pickup drivers at the Home Improvement Stores near me.

*We'll get to this later.

You can't easily access things from the side.  No practical way to build, mount, or access side tool boxes. 

Yep. Though you should be aware of the storage lockers in the frunk, behind the "wings" of the bed, in the bottom of the bed and under the second row bench. This covers a fair number of use cases.

Mounting a headache rack looks maybe possible but difficult and probably impractical.

Actually, the T-slots all over the bed would make it really easy, and really easy to make all sorts of custom racks with just a chop saw and hex wrench. 

See https://8020.net/what-is-8020 for examples.

As far as Rivian - the starting price is nearly twice as much ($70k vs $40k) and you only get a 4.5 foot bed.

[FINate]

Is this not just as offensive as the "pretty painted princess wagon" comment you didn't like earlier?  Don't get me wrong, neither comment offends me but talking about bros comparing appendages seems just as bad.

I apologize to any guys who have and use trucks for legitimate purposes: my comment was not directed at you. To the guys who *are* buying trucks (or anything) to compensate: therapy is way more effective and much cheaper.

[FINate]

As far as Rivian - the starting price is nearly twice as much ($70k vs $40k) and you only get a 4.5 foot bed.

Will Tesla really sell a $40k Cybertruck once they start rolling off the line? Their prices and other details are often aspirational.

[TomTX]

As far as Rivian - the starting price is nearly twice as much ($70k vs $40k) and you only get a 4.5 foot bed.

Will Tesla really sell a $40k Cybertruck once they start rolling off the line? Their prices and other details are often aspirational.

You can buy a $35k Model 3, either by phone or going into a showroom in a state which allows them to sell. It's not on the website, but that's not much of a barrier.

[FINate]

As far as Rivian - the starting price is nearly twice as much ($70k vs $40k) and you only get a 4.5 foot bed.

Will Tesla really sell a $40k Cybertruck once they start rolling off the line? Their prices and other details are often aspirational.

You can buy a $35k Model 3, either by phone or going into a showroom in a state which allows them to sell. It's not on the website, but that's not much of a barrier.

You can, for a time at least, buy the $39.5k Standard Plus that has been software limited for $35k (https://www.engadget.com/2019/04/12/tesla-35k-model-3-pulled-from-online-store/). Not really a sustainable long term strategy, no wonder they are trying to discourage purchase of the standard trim line.

[Smevans]

I will stick with my Colorado Diesel which was "cheap" used. Still somewhat small, 30mpg, around 600 mile range. 5.2" bed which handles 99.9% of the things that need carried (12 ft boards sit nicely when strapped).

[Raeon]

I'm always surprised by people's "surprise" that towing dropped the e-range so far in that TFL video.  This is nothing new. Every ICE truck I've ever owned has had fuel economy drop by at least half when I hitch my trailer to the back.  That is with the truck having terrible aerodynamics. If a modern truck had the aero of a model X, it's non-towing mpg would jump considerably. When you strap a parachute(big trailer) to the back, the drag of that theoretical aerodynamic ICE truck would result in the same 1/3 range as the model X test showed.

The range drop while towing has much more to do with aerodynamics and resistance than the power source.

80% of the truck owners I know who actually use the truck for work are excited about the prospect of e-trucks. Their concern, along with mine, isn't what the media is hyping. Price, durability. and range are what we care about.  We don't lack excitement, we don't hate the technology, we just want to see them proving themselves for 5 years before we feel our livelihoods can be trusted to them.  We love the idea of the truck, we just want it to prove itself first. 

There's a reason truck manufacturers make trucks as quiet as possible. The silent majority doesn't want to roll coal.  We don't want to race at stoplights. We don't want to wake up our neighbors when we go to work at 3am.  The attention seekers and bro-culture are making all the noise and the media is magnifying said noise.  I just hope Tesla can stick around long enough to earn the trust of the silent majority.

[MilesTeg]

I'm always surprised by people's "surprise" that towing dropped the e-range so far in that TFL video.  This is nothing new. Every ICE truck I've ever owned has had fuel economy drop by at least half when I hitch my trailer to the back.  That is with the truck having terrible aerodynamics. If a modern truck had the aero of a model X, it's non-towing mpg would jump considerably. When you strap a parachute(big trailer) to the back, the drag of that theoretical aerodynamic ICE truck would result in the same 1/3 range as the model X test showed.

The range drop while towing has much more to do with aerodynamics and resistance than the power source.

80% of the truck owners I know who actually use the truck for work are excited about the prospect of e-trucks. Their concern, along with mine, isn't what the media is hyping. Price, durability. and range are what we care about.  We don't lack excitement, we don't hate the technology, we just want to see them proving themselves for 5 years before we feel our livelihoods can be trusted to them.  We love the idea of the truck, we just want it to prove itself first. 

There's a reason truck manufacturers make trucks as quiet as possible. The silent majority doesn't want to roll coal.  We don't want to race at stoplights. We don't want to wake up our neighbors when we go to work at 3am.  The attention seekers and bro-culture are making all the noise and the media is magnifying said noise.  I just hope Tesla can stick around long enough to earn the trust of the silent majority.

One of the things that is of big concern for any EV truck is not just the mileage drop but whether it not you can sufficiently/economically cool the battery when doing serious towing.

The production model S, which already has high end battery cooling, does a really fast lap on the track, but can only do a few laps at that pace before overheating whereas a similar ICE vehicle won't have as impressive a lap time but can do it for an indefinite amount of time.

Towing heavy loads makes the tow vehicle do similar amounts of work as that which a car is doing on a race track. I have a feeling the cybertruck (or any EV truck), if actually used to tow say 10k lbs won't be range limited by the amount of energy in the battery, but by the thermal capacity of the battery cooling.

[Raeon]

One of the things that is of big concern for any EV truck is not just the mileage drop but whether it not you can sufficiently/economically cool the battery when doing serious towing.

The production model S, which already has high end battery cooling, does a really fast lap on the track, but can only do a few laps at that pace before overheating whereas a similar ICE vehicle won't have as impressive a lap time but can do it for an indefinite amount of time.

Towing heavy loads makes the tow vehicle do similar amounts of work as that which a car is doing on a race track. I have a feeling the cybertruck (or any EV truck), if actually used to tow say 10k lbs won't be range limited by the amount of energy in the battery, but by the thermal capacity of the battery cooling.

Excellent point Miles! It will be interesting to see how they tackle this problem.

[FINate]

I had a Touareg TDI until VW was required to purchase it back. It could tow 7700 lbs and got about 28 mpg in real life. It was way more aerodynamic than a pickup, but MPG dropped to about 17 MPG while towing a 5000 lb travel trailer, so about 60% of unladen. Seems like there's something else going on with the Model X.

Range anxiety is worse while towing. If you're towing a travel trailer in a remote area -- a normal thing to do while camping -- there are legitimate concerns about where to charge and for how long. Indeed, ICE has a similar limitation, but the difference is that the petrol infrastructure is way more complete than the charging network. Which, if you consider the logistics of transporting and storing petrol compared to the ease of moving electrons, is absurd.

The charging network will soon (5 years?) address the range anxiety issue, and hopefully battery and charging tech also improves to bring full charge times down to sub 10 minutes. I hope they do because I'd like to move to EV in the future.

[Just Joe]

I guess if camping means pulling into a KOA and plugging in the RV and the tow vehicle for the weekend then it'll be okay - assuming the EV driver can get the rig there in the first place.

[Linea_Norway]

I had a Touareg TDI until VW was required to purchase it back. It could tow 7700 lbs and got about 28 mpg in real life. It was way more aerodynamic than a pickup, but MPG dropped to about 17 MPG while towing a 5000 lb travel trailer, so about 60% of unladen. Seems like there's something else going on with the Model X.

Range anxiety is worse while towing. If you're towing a travel trailer in a remote area -- a normal thing to do while camping -- there are legitimate concerns about where to charge and for how long. Indeed, ICE has a similar limitation, but the difference is that the petrol infrastructure is way more complete than the charging network. Which, if you consider the logistics of transporting and storing petrol compared to the ease of moving electrons, is absurd.

The charging network will soon (5 years?) address the range anxiety issue, and hopefully battery and charging tech also improves to bring full charge times down to sub 10 minutes. I hope they do because I'd like to move to EV in the future.

This is why we so in doubt about our next car, EV or not EV. As long as you camp on campsites you can charge there. But when camping wild, you would have to fast charge somewhere before you drive into the remote place, and charge soon after. We regularly visit remote places by car and camp there.

[John Galt incarnate!]

The Cybertruck is the most planar vehicle I've ever seen.

Why?

Because it's made from 1/8-inch thick stainless steel which is not as easily formed as  the  thinner steel most vehicles  are made from.

[TomTX]

The production model S, which already has high end battery cooling, does a really fast lap on the track, but can only do a few laps at that pace before overheating whereas a similar ICE vehicle won't have as impressive a lap time but can do it for an indefinite amount of time.

Yeah, that design is about a decade old. Wasn't designed for the track anyway.

Model 3 (performance) has no problem with track runs. The prototypes for the Plaid upgrade Model S have no issues with track runs. Tesla understands thermal management of battery packs, likely better than any other manufacturer.

[MilesTeg]

The production model S, which already has high end battery cooling, does a really fast lap on the track, but can only do a few laps at that pace before overheating whereas a similar ICE vehicle won't have as impressive a lap time but can do it for an indefinite amount of time.

Yeah, that design is about a decade old. Wasn't designed for the track anyway.

Model 3 (performance) has no problem with track runs. The prototypes for the Plaid upgrade Model S have no issues with track runs. Tesla understands thermal management of battery packs, likely better than any other manufacturer.

Oh, it's not so much a question of 'can it be done' so much as 'can it be done economically'. Obviously Tesla is aiming for the luxury truck market rather than the high utility/work horse truck market but I'm pretty sure you won't see any cybertruck (or any other EV no matter the manufacturer) @ less than $100k doing what a $25k (sticker) IC truck can do in terms of towing/hauling heavy loads long distances. Both because you need a helluvalot more battery and upgraded thermal management to keep it all cool.

I'm a Tesla fan, and I can definitely see EV trucks coming along but I am definitely skeptical on this use case.

[EricEng]

I'm in a SoCal city 50% of the time where fancy SUVs and sedans are the norm. Almost all the trucks and vans I see here are working trucks and cargo vans. Or those used for recreation and to haul toys like boats, motorcycles, bikes, etc for trips to the local mountains and deserts.  Not many pampered pimped out trucks here. Tesla Model 3s and Xs are very popular though. Otherwise it's Civics and Corollas and the like. The rural mountain and farm area have more trucks but they generally seem to be older beater truck that have been used hard.

There is a small loop around a playground in my suburban CO neighborhood full of families with 2-4 small kids.  Last time I was at the playground I counted 14 trucks spread across 11 house's driveways.  Yes, several houses owned multiple giant trucks.  Those with only one truck almost all had the largest SUV's as secondary vehicle.  There was only one house with a minivan who also had a sedan.  All of these people are engineers and tech jobs.

[FINate]

Cybertruck is disrupting the Holiday Season:

https://electrek.co/2019/11/27/tesla-cybertruck-is-disrupting-the-holiday-season-see-ugly-xmas-sweaters/
https://teespring.com/tesla-cybertruck-ugly-sweater

[Kem]

I bought a $1500 accord coupe and until this truck could not see a future me ever buying an expensive new car again (having stupidly financed 4 new cars in my youth, the last one a lemon VW for 32K).

1/8" thick stainless will last lifetimes.

1million mile motors will last more than my life.

With a 3rd child on the way the wide width appeals to me.

Never needing another vehicle appeals to me.

Living in the Salt belt the super thick stainless can likely never be washed and not rust away (I'd wrap it)

This musk be over 6000 pounds, so if I buy it and use it for at least 50% of my business I can 100% depreciate the 49K in year 1.  I believe at death the depreciated asset basis is zeroed so no negative impact to the estate planning.

Never paying for gas again appeals to me.

This is beautiful and minimal.

It has enough capacity to haul loads for flipping into rentals without renting trucks.

It is wide enough in the back for 3 full size kids seats.

I think it's genius (as a vehicle, as a marketing ploy, as a driver of response, as a financing tool).

If nothing else, Elons ability to snag a zero percent unsecured crowd funded loan is amazing.

....

So related note.  In 2 years time I plan on cash-out refi on current house and using that as down payment for next house (fixer upper).  Turning the first into a rental.  Once the rental house has enough equity to cover the cost of solar I plan on a cash out refi to pay for that, then sell the electricity to the tenants at 5-10% below utility cost.  I plan on repeating this entire process every 1-2 years so long as market conditions allow.
...
Depreciation in more detail, per my understanding:
The IRS allows up to $25K up front depreciation over 6,000 (reduced by % driven for personal use, but must use at least 50% of miles for business)
 PLUS
50% Bonus Depreciation for NEW truck/Suv (or 24.5k on a 49k truck)

[nath]

As a big car enthusiast I have to say this Tesla is the ugliest car I have ever seen. If it was released as a concept by any other manufacturer they would immediately go out of business overnight. Perhaps that’s Elon’s next bold move?

As for the bulletproof glass:
I have looked at a bullet proof government BMW 7 series before. The doors are 4-5 inches thick, and the glass is like 3 inches thick.  The car weighs like 2 tons more than the standard car and needs a massive torquey V8 or v12 engine to move it.
Ooh yeah the car costs like $1million, and you have to have special diplomatic clearance to even be allowed to buy it.
The reason being, why would any government let a terrrorist or criminal run around in a bulletproof car?
This clearly is not going to be a production feature on the new Tesla

[neo von retorch]

If it was released as a concept by any other manufacturer they would immediately go out of business overnight.

I mean Pontiac started selling the Aztek in 2001 and they weren't shutdown until 2010. Ok it's just hyperbole! Good.

If you read enough about Elon Musk, you learn that he created Tesla Motors to jumpstart the electric car market, and surprisingly not to win it. Tesla had to charge healthy margins on the early, luxury level cars to build up capital to support selling a more mainstream vehicle like the Model 3, demonstrating the feasibility of electric cars for the masses.

Given all that, he's not trying to build a truck for everyone, but he is setting a challenge to competitors. Truck performance at a palatable price... in a design that's unmistakable for anything else. In today's market, this will still be a relatively niche vehicle compared to GM, Ford, Ram and Toyota trucks. Ugly is fine for that niche. But the truck's performance may be a little embarrassing for those Big Four truck brands. They'll be sweating a bit and investing in electric trucks that perform comparably at somewhat similar prices, but with more traditional appearance (and more customization, as well as existing compatible accessories.)

[MilesTeg]

Given all that, he's not trying to build a truck for everyone, but he is setting a challenge to competitors. Truck performance at a palatable price... in a design that's unmistakable for anything else. In today's market, this will still be a relatively niche vehicle compared to GM, Ford, Ram and Toyota trucks. Ugly is fine for that niche. But the truck's performance may be a little embarrassing for those Big Four truck brands. They'll be sweating a bit and investing in electric trucks that perform comparably at somewhat similar prices, but with more traditional appearance (and more customization, as well as existing compatible accessories.)

The cybertruck will absolutely not "embarass" any existing truck company's offerings at a palatable price. As a "real truck" the cybertruck is DOA and the 500mi/tri motor version will never retail for the claimed $70k. It's going to be $100k+ just like the model S that will (supposedly) share the same drive train (the cybertruck may have a body that is easier to produce but will require a much larger battery to get to 500mi empty range).

For about 1/3 the price of the cybertruck I can go and buy a truck from any of the "big 3" that will put 3x the torque to the wheels and haul or tow 2x all day long whether it be in death valley in high summer or Anchorage in winter. Tesla isn't even going to be remotely price competitive, and unless they produce a radically different design they won't be able to produce the kind of torque that current IC based drive trains do. It will do an impressive quarter mile for sure, but that's pretty much the least important "stat" for a truck.

The only thing the cybertruck seems to be capable of doing is being vehicle for people with lots of money who want a truck purely for status symbol reasons (not unlike many of the trucks sold today mind you). It's precisely the antithesis of what Musk/Tesla claim they want. The model S and especially the 3 are a great showcase of how passenger vehicles are definitely competitive in the high end to luxury segments and are very close to being practical at "regular people" segments. The cybertruck is clearly just a toy, even it's visual design admits that.

[TomTX]

[super threatened by CyberTruck]

Mmkay, show me some quotes of a new, full size pickup with 3x the torque and 2x the towing capacity of the base Cybertruck for under $12k - in the USA.

Should be super easy for you if your claims are correct.

[FINate]

[super threatened by CyberTruck]

Can we please avoid ad hominem attacks and stick to substantive arguments?

Mmkay, show me some quotes of a new, full size pickup with 3x the torque and 2x the towing capacity of the base Cybertruck for under $12k - in the USA.

Should be super easy for you if your claims are correct.

I'll let MilesTeg make his own arguments on this, but I think the key different he's getting at is engine torque != torque to wheels, which all comes down to gearing. You can order a F150 with a number of different real differential gear ratios and configurations, some for better MPG and others for towing. We'll have to see what the drivetrain details are for the Cybertruck and if they will provide features tailored for towing. Sustained towing isn't just about theoretical maximums over short distances...there's a lot that goes into gearing and cooling to make sure it isn't a problem on extreme grades in in extreme climates.

[MilesTeg]

[super threatened by CyberTruck]

Mmkay, show me some quotes of a new, full size pickup with 3x the torque and 2x the towing capacity of the base Cybertruck for under $12k - in the USA.

Should be super easy for you if your claims are correct.

First show me a cybertruck that (a) actually exists as more than a demo (b) actually has the tri-motor/500mi drivetrain for $70k.

I can buy a ford (or chevy, or maybe even a toyota) truck, today, that will put put 35,000 ft-lb of torque (@1600RPM) to the wheels with a BOF construction built to actually be able to make use of that kind of force. (F-250+ with the 6.7 diesel). For about $40k sticker.

A base ford with the smallest engine (2.7 EB) will put over 10k to the wheels at a similar RPM). For about $25k sticker.

The tri-motor Tesla, unless radically different than Tesla's P100D, despite very impressive tq at the motor, will only be able to put about 13,000 ft*lb to the wheels (assuming, generously, that the tri-motor adds another 500tq for a total of 1500tq at the motor). That model will never, ever sell for the advertised $70k. It will sell for $100k+ just like the Model S with the same drive train.

The single motor cybertruck, assuming 500tq (a generous boost over the single motor model S @ 325) will only be able to put about 4-5,000 torque to the wheels (again, unless Tesla radically changes their drive train configuration around).


The Tesla will be quicker off the line and certainly do a better 1/4 mile, but that's completely irrelevant to real world towing and hauling. It's a shiny stat, but irrelevant and in many cases counter productive (unless you want to see how fast you can kill your horses trying to set a 1/4mi time!)

[MilesTeg]

I'll let MilesTeg make his own arguments on this, but I think the key different he's getting at is engine torque != torque to wheels, which all comes down to gearing. You can order and F150 with a number of different real differential gear ratios and configurations, some for better MPG and others for towing. We'll have to see what the drivetrain details are for the Cybertruck and if they will provide features tailored for towing. Sustained towing isn't just about theoretical maximums over short distances...there's a lot that goes into gearing and cooling to make sure it isn't a problem on extreme grades in in extreme climates.

Yep, a quick look at some ford specs tell me:

Torque Converter 2:1
1st gear: 4.69:1
paired with a pretty standard 3.73:1 rear

gets you a (2*4.69*3.73) = 35x torque multiplier (40 with an optional 4.3:1 rear)

There's a trade off, of course, in that even though with that big a multiplier to can put a lot more force to the wheels, you can't do it "fast". Just like when you change into a low gear on your bike to go up the hill. It allows you to use just a little force to pedal, but you have to pedal a lot faster (aka doing the same amount of work) even though you are going very slowly still. TANSTAAFL and all. But that's why you have a multi speed transmission that can vary that multiplier.

Tesla's drive trains use one gear at (9:1 or 10:1) (10x max multiplier). They could certainly add more/variable gearing, but that would be a fundamental change to their drive train (read: would cost a lot to develop). Supposedly, the cybertruck will have the same drive train components as the Model S (which makes sense from a cost perspective).

[FINate]

Torque Converter 2:1
1st gear: 4.69:1
paired with a pretty standard 3.73:1 rear

gets you a (2*4.69*3.73) = 35x torque multiplier (40 with an optional 4.3:1 rear)

And you can about double that again if in 4L, so 70-80x torque multiplier. This is not something anyone is going to use on the highway, but sure is nice to have when you really need low end power and/or when descending down super long and steep dirt roads in the mountains.

[FINate]

The other problem with the Cybertruck towing capacity of 14,000 lbs is that no one in their right mind wants to tow this much weight off the back of their vehicle. In order to tow a trailer safely at highway speeds around 10-15% of the trailer weight needs to be on the tongue. Hanging 2000+ lbs off the back of a 6000 lb truck dramatically changes the load distribution which greatly degrades handling. Above about 10000 lbs is where 5th-wheel/gooseneck trailers come in, as these load the tow vehicle in a more sensible way and are way easier to handle. But with the very high bedrails on the Cybertruck this doesn't appear feasible, so the top line towing numbers are somewhat moot.

Even at lower weights, 5000 and 10000 lbs, weight distribution is a concern. The Cybertruck's air suspension will be great for auto-leveling the load (a nice feature), but it doesn't solve the problem of how weight is distributed on the tow vehicle. For this reason most folks will want to incorporate a weight distribution hitch to transfer some of the tongue weight to the front wheels. Problem is, this is generally a no-no for most unibody construction because it stresses the frame in ways they aren't designed for. Will be interesting to see if the Cybertruck exoskeleton (same concept as unibody) can be used with a weight distribution hitch. They are smart, hopefully they've thought through these scenarios. I suppose we'll find out more in the coming years.

[lemonlyman]

The nuances of torque matter to most buyers about as much as overclocking speeds of processors. Sounds cool but practical only to power users. Can the computer run YouTube? Yes. Can it the truck pull my popup and carry 2x4s every now and then with my family in it? Sure. The pickup market is 2 million units per year in the US. Since the cybertruck will have lower cost of ownership compared to similar priced trucks and will have orders of magnitude better software, there's a lot of room in the market for this.

The way it looks is a function of the body materials and aerodynamics. I've seen lots of contractors on Twitter very excited for the product. We'll have to wait to see if any commercial uses arise.

The advantage EVs have over ICE vehicles is they have barely started down the cost curve of scale. Tesla is just now getting to 100k units per quarter. Wright's Law says costs decline by 15% for every cummulative doubling of units produced. Motortrend reported the trimotor will have a new drivetrain not yet released. 5 years ago, it was preposterous to believe the Model 3 would exist let alone be selling 80,000 units a quarter and climbing. 5 years from now, the truck will be even better and cheaper than the 2022 model while the ICE vehicles will have not changed at all except for maybe a bigger screen. Will still be for power users but no one else.

Having said that, all your points on torque and hauling weight are super interesting. I wish I understood it better.

[FINate]

Agree. For a certain segment of pickup owners torque and towing capacity are non-issues. Question is, how large is this segment? I honestly don't know, but wouldn't assume it's every truck you see that's not towing.* Many people buy trucks with very specific uses in mind, hence the configurable rear differentials and myriad of options on a traditional pickup truck (auxiliary coolers for motor oil and transmissions, sway control, and so on). Towing capability is something you really need when you need it, even if you're not towing 99% of the time.

Your comparison to processor clock frequency is apt. It's a number people fixate on (similar to engine torque), but what really matters is real-world performance. Cybertruck may be a perfectly capable tow vehicle, I just can't tell with what little info they've put out so far. We will have to wait util some real-world tests come out, such as towing 10000 pounds in strong cross winds and up long steep grades to get a better sense.

*The Honda Ridgeline, a unibody truck, is potentially a good proxy for this segment.

[MilesTeg]

The nuances of torque matter to most buyers about as much as overclocking speeds of processors. Sounds cool but practical only to power users. Can the computer run YouTube? Yes. Can it the truck pull my popup and carry 2x4s every now and then with my family in it? Sure. The pickup market is 2 million units per year in the US. Since the cybertruck will have lower cost of ownership compared to similar priced trucks and will have orders of magnitude better software, there's a lot of room in the market for this.

That's actually exactly why the cybertruck is so disappointing. It's (as described so far by Telsa) a prime example of a truck that only people who don't need a truck would be interested in. Pulling a popup and a couple home depot runs a year doesn't necessitate a land yacht of any kind let alone one as huge and heavy as this.

The way it looks is a function of the body materials and aerodynamics. I've seen lots of contractors on Twitter very excited for the product. We'll have to wait to see if any commercial uses arise.

The way it looks it because Musk loves Blade Runner. Its body design cripple its usability for no reason. No 5th/gooseneck, no hard camper shell, no bed mounted popup, no way to fill the bed and strap on more cargo on top a hard tonneau (no exterior hard points), no flat bed conversion (because it's unibody), no toolchests, no bed racks, no roof rack.

But there's an integrated air compressor!

The reason trucks all "look the same" is because form has followed function. In particular, the function of allowing a lot of customization to happen to fit a myriad of use cases.

With a focus on real world usability (rather than silly things like 0-60 times) you could make an amazing truck with an all electric drive train:

* put a standard shaped bed on it
* BOF design (skateboard?)
* put a variable speed gear system in it instead of adding more torque at the motor(s) -- this would allow for a higher range and more towing capacity but at the expense of super cool 0-60 times.

[the_fixer]

I think you are looking at it wrong.

The first Tesla's conversion of the cool / sporty Elise followed by the fast sporty sedans created buzz, sold well and made the product a prestige item the consumer desired. It generated money, allowed then to get the product out there and being tested.


People still view even the most basic model 3 as a luxury item and assume someone must be rich if they have a Tesla.

However if they had started by converting a Toyota Yaris that had great range but was basic and slow, then produced the equivalent of a low Corolla with great range do you think they would have the same success?

Think about it then apply it to the truck.

How many fleet Managers, businesses, construction workers would be willing to risk buying a bunch of Tesla trucks that were basically like all other trucks out there with the exception of the electric motor and a limited range?

However offer a truck that will have a couple of hundred thousand people sign up, lend you money for a few years, buy the truck because they want to have a cool Tesla truck while essentially being a beta tester while you continue to improve you product and make it ready for businesses, fleets, construction workers and so forth.

Guessing the second option wins over the first ;)

As a bonus you get to convert a bunch of flat biller go fast raptor drivers from their ICE truck to a fancy futuristic EV

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[MilesTeg]

I think you are looking at it wrong.

The first Tesla's conversion of the cool / sporty Elise followed by the fast sporty sedans created buzz, sold well and made the product a prestige item the consumer desired. It generated money, allowed then to get the product out there and being tested.


People still view even the most basic model 3 as a luxury item and assume someone must be rich if they have a Tesla.

However if they had started by converting a Toyota Yaris that had great range but was basic and slow, then produced the equivalent of a low Corolla with great range do you think they would have the same success?

Think about it then apply it to the truck.

How many fleet Managers, businesses, construction workers would be willing to risk buying a bunch of Tesla trucks that were basically like all other trucks out there with the exception of the electric motor and a limited range?

However offer a truck that will have a couple of hundred thousand people sign up, lend you money for a few years, buy the truck because they want to have a cool Tesla truck while essentially being a beta tester while you continue to improve you product and make it ready for businesses, fleets, construction workers and so forth.

Guessing the second option wins over the first ;)

As a bonus you get to convert a bunch of flat biller go fast raptor drivers from their ICE truck to a fancy futuristic EV

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

Plan 2 is good, except the fact the the cybertruck will never, ever be ready for 'real work'. It will require a fundamentally different design (both drive train and frame/body) to get it capable of being that kind of truck (as I've already laid out). By design, its only relevance will ever be in the luxury bro-dozer, grocery hauler market segment.

The roadster was useful because they needed to work out battery and drive train design choices and they could make some money on the side (they being the actual founders of Tesla, which is not Musk). There's nothing in the cybertruck that is useful to "work out" for a truck. It's a Model S drive train with a dysfunctional body concept.

[lemonlyman]

That's actually exactly why the cybertruck is so disappointing. It's (as described so far by Telsa) a prime example of a truck that only people who don't need a truck would be interested in. Pulling a popup and a couple home depot runs a year doesn't necessitate a land yacht of any kind let alone one as huge and heavy as this.

What people need and what they actually do aren't correlated at all. Where I live in the Ohio/WV/KY area, people buy trucks for fewer reasons than that. It's arguably more functional for those kinds of people.

The way it looks it because Musk loves Blade Runner.

That's part of it I guess, but aerodynamics is obviously a reason. You know what kind of drag an open box has? That's a range problem and a contributor to trucks generally terrible gas mileage.

Its body design cripple its usability for no reason. No 5th/gooseneck, no hard camper shell, no bed mounted popup, no way to fill the bed and strap on more cargo on top a hard tonneau (no exterior hard points), no flat bed conversion (because it's unibody), no toolchests, no bed racks, no roof rack.

Not being able to do everything you want is different than not being able to anything at all. Somehow, lots of contractors and companies make use of vans, for example, even though they can't do most things on your list.

[FINate]

I think someone upthread mentioned the TFLTruck video about the practical realities of towing with the Model X. It's worth watching and is a fair real-world analysis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cvNfmL7XQg TL;DR - Towing power is impressive, but stopping to charge for an hour every 1.5 hours of towing is a non-starter.

The highest end Cybertruck may have better towing range, but then again, the TFLTruck guys were only towing a 4500 lb trailer, which is within the capabilities of most mid-size SUVs.

The offroading segment near the end is interesting. The roads they're testing on are relatively benign and typical for many of the places I go. Yes, I've done similar stuff with a Subaru and a VW, but dang was it ever anxiety inducing, which you can clearly see and hear on the video. Nowadays I cargo bike almost exclusively around town and drive very little, so I opted for a 4WD truck with better ground clearance and tougher tires for trips into the mountains. Nothing extreme (no lift), just something for getting over rough, rocky, and muddy spots. The Cybertruck should solve the clearance issue, but again there's a question of offroad range, and I would add, a question of how well the AWD and suspension works. In the video you can clearly see the Model X AWD spinning wheels and struggling for traction on very light duty off road stuff. In a normal full-time 4WD vehicle you just put it in 4L and lock the rear diff (if you have a locker) and literally crawl over stuff with no drama.

The problem with all the chest thumping about EV torque and ground clearance, which all the EV truck manufactures are guilty of (e.g. the EV F150 "towing" 1.2M lbs), is that this creates an expectation in the mind of the consumer. Some people will, quite reasonably, purchase with these use cases in mind. If they don't work as expected then critical video reviews start hitting the internet. This may sound strange, but many of the folks with trucks that don't tow or haul anything still want those capabilities "just in case" or "just because." This has the possibility of casting a cloud on EV trucks and setting things back in consumer confidence.

It appears EV battery/charging/drivetrain tech isn't quite ready for the work truck market. Yes, so-called "lifestyle" trucks are a different thing altogether. But with small compact trucks making something of a comeback (such as the Hyundai Santa Cruz) it's too bad Tesla didn't focus on this area first, since the unibody design and shared drivetrain are a much better fit. In other words, they should have unveiled something more like Truckla.

[MilesTeg]

That's actually exactly why the cybertruck is so disappointing. It's (as described so far by Telsa) a prime example of a truck that only people who don't need a truck would be interested in. Pulling a popup and a couple home depot runs a year doesn't necessitate a land yacht of any kind let alone one as huge and heavy as this.

What people need and what they actually do aren't correlated at all. Where I live in the Ohio/WV/KY area, people buy trucks for fewer reasons than that. It's arguably more functional for those kinds of people.

I agree, but that is exactly the issue. The cybertruck is disappointing /because/ it's just another truck for people that would be better of with a minivan or other style of vehicle.

The way it looks it because Musk loves Blade Runner.

That's part of it I guess, but aerodynamics is obviously a reason. You know what kind of drag an open box has? That's a range problem and a contributor to trucks generally terrible gas mileage.

It's 100% of it. There are plenty of highly aerodynamic designs that could be employed that would also not cripple the utility of the bed. Heck, cut out the dumb sloping bed sides (which would probably require a significant structural redesign due to the unibody construction) and half of the problems are addressed.

Its body design cripple its usability for no reason. No 5th/gooseneck, no hard camper shell, no bed mounted popup, no way to fill the bed and strap on more cargo on top a hard tonneau (no exterior hard points), no flat bed conversion (because it's unibody), no toolchests, no bed racks, no roof rack.

Not being able to do everything you want is different than not being able to anything at all. Somehow, lots of contractors and companies make use of vans, for example, even though they can't do most things on your list.

[/quote]

You're missing the point. Its design cripples its capabilities -- unnecessarily. It's an electric vehicle, for the time being that means that there's really no great solution to range/charge issues. However, there is nothing intrinsic to an EV that means you need to design the truck to not be able to do all the things other trucks its size can (my list).

[MilesTeg]

When Tesla released the Model S, it was a best of breed example of a full size sedan. It did/does everything any other sedan can, and does it better. The only exception being "refuel" time -- an intrinsic issue with current battery tech. But even that is mitigated by not having to go to a dedicated location for recharging.

The cybertruck does not follow in those footsteps. It doesn't do everything any other full size truck can do (not even close), and the things it can do (that matter in the real world) are done better by an IC truck at a fraction of its cost which seriously hinders any argument about TCO. None of those failings are intrinsic to an EV (unlike recharge time). It's all down to a dysfunctional concept/design.

[GodlessCommie]

I wonder if police departments are now looking at it.

[FINate]

I wonder if police departments are now looking at it.

Dubai PD is: https://observer.com/2019/12/tesla-cybertruck-electric-pickup-dubai-police-add-to-supercar-fleet-2020/

[Herbert Derp]

For those of you who don't understand the Cybertruck, I've got two words for you: alien dreadnought. Let me explain. As others have mentioned, there are clear reasons why the Cybertruck has its unique shape, which have nothing to do with aesthetics.

The bed of the truck has those high, sloping walls in order to reduce drag (the "drop" behind a traditional truck cabin shape causes turbulence which causes more drag) while simultaneously allowing for the retractable locking panel--which can also be a solar panel. The flat panels and sharp angles are because of the steel exoskeleton, which cannot be easily formed into rounded shapes. The steel exoskeleton isn't there to look cool, either. It is intended to radically change the way that the truck can be manufactured. Instead of requiring huge, expensive, and custom-built stamping machines to make parts for the vehicle, all they need is much simpler machines which can cut, fold, and weld sheets of stainless steel. Furthermore, they are entirely doing away with the three part process of traditional truck building where first the frame is created, then panels are attached to the frame, and finally those panels are painted and finished.

It's not just that! If Tesla can master this new steel exoskeleton construction process, they should be able to use the same tooling to cut, fold, and weld sheets of stainless steel into all kinds of different car shapes, just as how a human can use their same two hands to fold paper into various shapes. No more huge, expensive stamping machines which must be custom built and constantly recalibrated to the exact specifications of each vehicle. They can just use the same machines and the same generic cutting, folding, and welding process to make whatever vehicle they want--as long as it has that Cybertruck-esque shape. These machines will all be completely automated, of course. Imagine how a single simple and (comparably) cheap water jet cutter can be programmed to quickly and precisely cut all kinds of different complex shapes from sheets of metal, with no human intervention. Now apply that line of thinking to automobile manufacturing. Bingo!

Remember that one of the very first things that Tesla achieved was to standardize the "skateboard" at the bottom of their vehicles. Regardless of whether the car is a Model S, X, or 3, the "skateboard" on the bottom is pretty much the same. Now Tesla can potentially do this for the top part of the car too.

The end goal of this radical change in manufacturing process is to drive down manufacturing costs by simplifying the overall manufacturing process and increasing automation. I see the Cybertruck as a Trojan Horse of sorts to build a vehicle which plays to the strengths of the aesthetic results of this new manufacturing process ("tough" trucks), and get the public to accept this unusual look as something that a vehicle can look like. If this happens, what is stopping Elon from simply reprogramming his Cybertruck manufacturing machines to make a whole new line of vehicles, at much lower costs than the current traditional manufacturing process allows for? It will be amazing if he can actually pull this off!

Elon has been talking about his vision of a fully automated "alien dreadnought / machine that builds the machine" factory for years. The Cybertruck manufacturing process is clearly another step in this direction. I hope anyone can see that when viewed in this light, the Cybertruck is not a squandered opportunity at all--it's an act of genius! Elon didn't just wake up one day and decide to make a Blade Runner truck for shits and giggles, or because he thought it looked cool. From the beginning, this was always about his vision for the "alien dreadnought" automated factory. Regardless, if Tesla fails to master this new manufacturing process or the Cybertruck fails to sell well, they can just go back to manufacturing trucks the old way, which seems to be serving them well enough for their other vehicles.

Watch this video from 7:00 - 15:00 for a more in-depth analysis of the exoskeleton:
https://youtu.be/4qgO3A2pUr8?t=420

The way it looks it because Musk loves Blade Runner. Its body design cripple its usability for no reason. No 5th/gooseneck, no hard camper shell, no bed mounted popup, no way to fill the bed and strap on more cargo on top a hard tonneau (no exterior hard points), no flat bed conversion (because it's unibody), no toolchests, no bed racks, no roof rack.

But there's an integrated air compressor!

The reason trucks all "look the same" is because form has followed function. In particular, the function of allowing a lot of customization to happen to fit a myriad of use cases.

With a focus on real world usability (rather than silly things like 0-60 times) you could make an amazing truck with an all electric drive train:

* put a standard shaped bed on it
* BOF design (skateboard?)
* put a variable speed gear system in it instead of adding more torque at the motor(s) -- this would allow for a higher range and more towing capacity but at the expense of super cool 0-60 times.

Keep in mind that Tesla is doing the Apple strategy. They are locking their vehicles into their own ecosystem--by design. For example, the Cybertruck might not support standard hard camper shells but it will have a pop-up tent and other camping equipment as add-ons, which of course can only be purchased from Tesla. It seems to have worked out great for Apple, and perhaps it will work for Tesla as well.

Not the Cybetruck but some agencies have tried Teslas, lime the LAPD, and found them not pursuit friendly

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-09-25/tesla-police-car-lost-battery-while-on-duty-in-the-middle-of-a-pursuit%3f_amp=true

From that article, not sure if anything else needs to be said:

Bosques said the incident wasn’t too concerning. She said the car had performed well in one other pursuit, meaning it had no problem catching up and staying close to the suspect’s car at a high speed.

She added that the Tesla’s battery had lasted almost two shifts, despite the fact it wasn’t charged at the beginning of Officer Hartman’s shift at 2 p.m. She said she didn’t know why it hadn’t been charged on this particular day.

“This unfortunately happens from time to time even in our vehicles that run on gas, if they aren’t re-fueled at the end of a shift,” Bosques said. “This incident was truly no different than a vehicle running out of gas and a good reminder to our officers that they should have a full tank or charge to ensure they can make it the entire 11 hours of their shift.”

[JLee]

I wonder if police departments are now looking at it.

Dubai PD is: https://observer.com/2019/12/tesla-cybertruck-electric-pickup-dubai-police-add-to-supercar-fleet-2020/

Not the Cybetruck but some agencies have tried Teslas, lime the LAPD, and found them not pursuit friendly

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-09-25/tesla-police-car-lost-battery-while-on-duty-in-the-middle-of-a-pursuit%3f_amp=true

Ehh I can't fault the Tesla here. That's like sending someone out without a full tank in a regular car.

She added that the Tesla’s battery had lasted almost two shifts, despite the fact it wasn’t charged at the beginning of Officer Hartman’s shift at 2 p.m. She said she didn’t know why it hadn’t been charged on this particular day.

[GodlessCommie]

For those of you who don't understand the Cybertruck, I've got two words for you: alien dreadnought.

Thanks for the link! These two guys provided a lot of much needed context. It was especially eye-opening to hear that the "origami manufacturing" was a rather old idea. Apparently legacy players in Detroit saw an advantage of it for 20-30 years, but couldn't quite manage to figure it all out. Granted, it was much harder for their ICE engines and related systems - but with the skateboard, a lot of that complexity is eliminated and things start both literally and figuratively come together.

Also, the average price of a pickup truck being $48,000? And people frame Teslas as cars for rich people?

[GodlessCommie]

Cuidad Valles, a municipality in San Luis Potosí, Mexico, announced that it has reserved 15 units of the all-electric pickup.

I would imagine a bullet-proof shell is of value to Mexican police.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-order-mexico-mayor-common-sense/

[FINate]

Cuidad Valles, a municipality in San Luis Potosí, Mexico, announced that it has reserved 15 units of the all-electric pickup.

I would imagine a bullet-proof shell is of value to Mexican police.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-order-mexico-mayor-common-sense/

"Bullet-proof" is not quite accurate. It resisted a 9mm, a relatively low power handgun round. The cartels carry AKs which would go through like butter. A lot more armour and exotic materials would be needed to make these bullet-proof in any meaningful sense.

[neo von retorch]

Also, the average price of a pickup truck being $48,000? And people frame Teslas as cars for rich people?

To be fair, the real world average selling price (ASP) for a Model 3 has was over $50k! And that's the "entry-level" one. You can buy a brand new truck for ~$19k. Of course, most people don't choose those versions!

[FINate]

For those of you who don't understand the Cybertruck, I've got two words for you: alien dreadnought. Let me explain. As others have mentioned, there are clear reasons why the Cybertruck has its unique shape, which have nothing to do with aesthetics.

The bed of the truck has those high, sloping walls in order to reduce drag (the "drop" behind a traditional truck cabin shape causes turbulence which causes more drag) while simultaneously allowing for the retractable locking panel--which can also be a solar panel. The flat panels and sharp angles are because of the steel exoskeleton, which cannot be easily formed into rounded shapes. The steel exoskeleton isn't there to look cool, either. It is intended to radically change the way that the truck can be manufactured. Instead of requiring huge, expensive, and custom-built stamping machines to make parts for the vehicle, all they need is much simpler machines which can cut, fold, and weld sheets of stainless steel. Furthermore, they are entirely doing away with the three part process of traditional truck building where first the frame is created, then panels are attached to the frame, and finally those panels are painted and finished.

It's not just that! If Tesla can master this new steel exoskeleton construction process, they should be able to use the same tooling to cut, fold, and weld sheets of stainless steel into all kinds of different car shapes, just as how a human can use their same two hands to fold paper into various shapes. No more huge, expensive stamping machines which must be custom built and constantly recalibrated to the exact specifications of each vehicle. They can just use the same machines and the same generic cutting, folding, and welding process to make whatever vehicle they want--as long as it has that Cybertruck-esque shape. These machines will all be completely automated, of course. Imagine how a single simple and (comparably) cheap water jet cutter can be programmed to quickly and precisely cut all kinds of different complex shapes from sheets of metal, with no human intervention. Now apply that line of thinking to automobile manufacturing. Bingo!

Remember that one of the very first things that Tesla achieved was to standardize the "skateboard" at the bottom of their vehicles. Regardless of whether the car is a Model S, X, or 3, the "skateboard" on the bottom is pretty much the same. Now Tesla can potentially do this for the top part of the car too.

The end goal of this radical change in manufacturing process is to drive down manufacturing costs by simplifying the overall manufacturing process and increasing automation. I see the Cybertruck as a Trojan Horse of sorts to build a vehicle which plays to the strengths of the aesthetic results of this new manufacturing process ("tough" trucks), and get the public to accept this unusual look as something that a vehicle can look like. If this happens, what is stopping Elon from simply reprogramming his Cybertruck manufacturing machines to make a whole new line of vehicles, at much lower costs than the current traditional manufacturing process allows for? It will be amazing if he can actually pull this off!

Elon has been talking about his vision of a fully automated "alien dreadnought / machine that builds the machine" factory for years. The Cybertruck manufacturing process is clearly another step in this direction. I hope anyone can see that when viewed in this light, the Cybertruck is not a squandered opportunity at all--it's an act of genius! Elon didn't just wake up one day and decide to make a Blade Runner truck for shits and giggles, or because he thought it looked cool. From the beginning, this was always about his vision for the "alien dreadnought" automated factory. Regardless, if Tesla fails to master this new manufacturing process or the Cybertruck fails to sell well, they can just go back to manufacturing trucks the old way, which seems to be serving them well enough for their other vehicles.

Watch this video from 7:00 - 15:00 for a more in-depth analysis of the exoskeleton:
https://youtu.be/4qgO3A2pUr8?t=420

I'm well aware of the exoskeleton design concept. See my earlier posts for my concerns about this RE crumple zones, repairs, and towing. Indeed, the design decisions help with things like aerodynamics, but to MilesTeg's points, these also reduce the utility of the vehicle in a bunch of different ways that he and others have outlined. Saying "but aerodynamics" doesn't change this. What it does change, however, is a reasonably priced EV truck that gets very good range. The $64k question is, will this more than compensate for the loss of utility and/or being locked into the Tesla aftermarket ecosystem? I think we will have to wait until they actually start selling Cybertrucks (different than online reservations to buy) to get a better sense for how the market responds.

I'm not convinced that the design isn't, in part at least, about a Mad Max SciFi aesthetic. During the unveil Musk made a point of denigrating existing truck designs as boring. And Tesla engineers also considered increasing the thickness of the body to further improve bullet resistance, but didn't because it would have made the doors too heavy. Since when is bullet resistance a reasonable feature, who needs this?

As to factory automation, Tesla is behind the established auto manufacturers in this area. Modern automotive factories are highly automated which is why car bodies are so well made these days with very tight tolerances. Not convinced the exoskeleton concept (really, it's a type of unibody) is a game changer here. Maybe it's a problem for Tesla (production hell), but the traditional car companies figured this out decades ago.

All the manufactures have "platforms" that are shared across multiple products. Where EVs have a huge advantage (i.e. not specific to Tesla) is that they have so few moving parts, which should greatly simplify the supply chain once the battery manufacturing problem is solved (this may be Tesla's largest competitive advantage) and also makes the overall assembly process that much simpler.

[Jon Bon]

Ok that cheap frontier, just bonkers, I feel like I should go buy one and hang onto it for 30 years.

However back to the topic at hand.

I think MANY of these comparisons are not apples to apples. The cyber truck has been compared to a $20,000 Nissan frontier, and a $100,000 f350 dually diesel. Both of those are silly. This truck will be in the 1/2 ton class just like f150, ram 1500 etc.


So lets keep  our comparisons there. I dont see guys regularly towing a 20k pound fifth wheel with a half ton truck. So sure some situations the cyber truck wont work, but that's true of every single dang car out there. It cant be all things to all people.

I would also state that there are two kinds of trucks:

1. White trucks
2. Trucks that are not white.

White trucks are the contractor/fleet trucks, they are often stripped out of creature comforts but usually have all the strength/towing/torque that their more upscale brothers have.

Trucks that are not white are the ones the suburban dads commute to their jobs in. half ton, extended cab, 6 foot bed. There are millions of these out there.

Cyber truck is a truck that is not white.

I think this truck is about 90/10 sure some guys will use it to work, but not many. It can do some truck things better, so in specific cases sure some "white truck guys" will add some to their fleet. But for the most part it will be sold to people who don't buy white trucks.



 

[Kem]

my father's a painter & owns his own business.  He is now a 1 man shop.  He has used f150's for years.  He plans on buying this and welding a roof rack to the top as it is long enough to support the ladders he carries.  He is insanely excited at the prospect of dropping the tailgate ramp and walking up to get the ladder as (at his age) he needs to carry a separate ladder in his bed to get his working ladder (twice a day).  He sells the F-150s around 125K miles as by then the body is rusting away badly (I believe his current truck is a 2013).  He also plans on stripping out the back seat as that leaves enough room to transport all the paint/job.  He also buys a toy jeep wrangler every 10 years or so.  His next truck, he wants to be the last vehicle he ever purchases and he feels he can replace both his jeep & truck with this 1 vehicle. 

his friend owns a larger painting business - also lives next door to my kid's nanny.  He has a large crew (about 30 strong) and buys mini vans to transport the typical 5-6 folks.  They carry ALL tools/materials in trailers.  He is in line for 6 to replace his entire 'fleet' and told me the fuel savings and oil changes alone will break even within 2 years (I did not run his numbers, just repeating what he told me).  The main reason to replace: his vans all rust out within 6 years before he sells them and the stainless should last much longer - he doesn't believe in fluid film or winter washing (which I am religious about).

These gents both drive their vehicles off road, on new development roads, and hardly ever wash their vehicles in winter.  They are hard on their equipment and it wears out / breaks a bit quickly.

Other trades in the industry, according to both gents, have been talking about it.  These are folks that - like clockwork - buy fords, chevys, rams (why?).

So long as plans continue on pace, I should have my first few REIs in 2-3 years.  If this truck is heavy enough to allow for bonus depreciation - I may very well consider it for that business especially If it comes with the million mile engines.  This is the first vehicle I would even consider as a potential replacement to old manual transmission Toyota and Honda picks.  Currently I drive a $1,500 Honda coupe (which is awesome to fit 3 kids in the back.  really fun).  And on a completely unrelated note - it is really nice to finally see a truck come out that isn't the old fugly look that has been around since the model-T trucks.